XAUUSD : Gold will find its old peak within the weekWorld gold moved sideways around 2,427 USD/ounce in the early trading session this morning, a number of important economic reports will be announced by the US this week. However, experts predict that the gold market will not change much after these reports.
FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that the fact that XAU/USD remains firmly above the 2,400 USD/ounce mark is a good sign. Expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates are increasing, which underpins the price of gold - a non-yielding asset.
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GOLD ( STABILIZING ABOVE FVG) ( 4H )HELLO TRADERS
TENDENCY : generally the price stabilizing above turning level , indicates is under bullish pressure
TURNING LEVEL : the price between 2,395 $ and 2,383 $ and called a FVG , as long as the price trading above this level reach a resistance level , breaking this level trying to touch a support level .
PRICE MOVEMENT : the price in previously can be breakout resistance level at 2,365$ , after stabilizing this level rising to 2,392$ , trying to retest at 2,350$ , after again rising to 2,424$ , know currently price at 2,412$ , my goal resistance level at 2,425 $ .
PRICE ACTION :
LONG CONDITION : have two cases to rising for reach a resistance level , first case the price toward directly reach a resistance level at 2,425$ , second case price corrective a turning level inside FVG between 2,395$ and 2,383$ before rising .
SHORT CONDITION : if the price breaking FVG at 2,383$ by open 4h candle below this level reach a support level at 2,364$ , then stabilizing below this level reach a 2,337$ .
TARGET LEVEL :
LONG CONDITION / RESISTANCE LEVEL :2,425$ , 2,440$
SHORT CONDITION / SUPPORT LEVEL : 2,365$ , 2,337$
XAUUSD : Gold increased sharply at the end of the year?Although the PPI index last week somewhat restrained the excitement, gold was still able to hold the important support level of 2,400 USD/ounce. Coming into the new week, world gold prices were under pressure from investors to take profits at the beginning of this morning's session when ECB officials announced that the central bank could cut operating interest rates again in the end. 2024. It is likely that many ECBs will not be able to lower interest rates at this week's meeting on July 18, but possibly in September. This may have led to an increase in expectations for a similar move with the FOMC and opening shows a clearer trend of interest rate cuts.
Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, expects that gold will find its historic peak again this week when the gap is only about 40 USD/ounce. Because after recent developments, from both data and Mr. Powell's statements, the possibility of cutting interest rates in September is higher than ever.
However, many experts say that investors should also be cautious because Q2 economic information is about to be announced in the US and Europe from now until the end of July. If the economic data is positive, gold can will likely be under pressure to make room for other risky assets, typically stocks.
XAUUSD : Gold will find its old peak during the weekendWorld gold increased amid unabated geopolitical instability in many regions. At the same time, countries tend to increase gold reserves and reduce dependence on the USD, supporting the price of this precious metal.
Previously, in a meeting with the US Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US labor market had weakened and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said that US inflation would decrease over time. This increases expectations that the Fed will soon lower interest rates in September.
GOLD : Can gold reach the $2,500 discipline mark?Despite gold's consolidation phase, in a report published on Wednesday, commodity analysts at Citi said strong gold demand in the second half of the year could push XAUUSD towards 2,600, as the Investors flocked to precious metals.
Along with renewed investor interest, analysts say they expect central bank demand to hit a record this year. According to the model, analysts expect central banks to buy about 1,100 tons this year, up 5.8% year-on-year and likely exceeding the expected 1,250 tons.
Citi's outlook comes after foreign exchange reserve data from the PBOC showed the bank did not add to China's gold reserves for the second month in a row.
Despite this shift, analysts note that central banks' gold demand has stabilized at a record 28-30% of gold mining output since 2022. They also see demand is likely to increase to 35% in the bullish scenario next year due to the trade war and concerns about US financial policy.
While the gold market remains driven by central bank demand, Citi also expects retail consumers and investors to further drive gold's growth.
“We remain bullish on gold demand over the next 12 months, with potential Fed rate cuts and headwinds in the US labor market helping to boost demand,” Citi analysts wrote. with this metal.
In this situation, Citi predicts XAUUSD will trade between 2,800 and 3,000 by mid-2025.
GOLD ( FED CHAIR POWELL ) ( 4H )XAUUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency active bullish after the price breakout the resistance trendline .
TURNING LEVEL : a blue line between resistance and support level around 2,348$, indicates if the price stabilizing above this level reach resistance level , if the breaking turning level reach a support level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL : there is a green line around 2,378$ , indicates selling have already increase this level , so if the price stable turning level reach this level .
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line below turning level around 2,337$ , indicates buying have already increase this level , so if the price breaking turning level reach this level .
PRICE MOVEMENT : maybe first the price will trying to dropping turning level around 2,348$ , after rising to the resistance level around 2,378$ , then stable above this level reach 2,391$ ,
if the price breaking turning level reach a support level at 2,337$ , then stable by open 4h candle below this level reach a 2,320$ , know the price in the supply returned to the demand zone may be reach a turning level before long .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 2,378$ , 2,391$
SUPPORT LEVEL : 2,337$ , 2,320$
Gold will increase sharply when the Fed reduces interest rates"Capital inflows were widespread, with all regions recording positive increases except for North America, which saw a slight decline for the second consecutive month. Overall, yields fell across regions important and the weakening USD has made gold more attractive to domestic investors," analysts said.
"Lower interest rates are a key factor driving capital flows into the region," analysts said. Additionally, cooling stock markets and political uncertainties related to elections in The UK and France, which have sparked significant capital inflows, have also boosted investor interest in gold.
Although North American gold demand remains tepid, analysts note that it could easily reverse if the Fed starts cutting interest rates. The market forecasts about a 70% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.
"A strong dollar and continued stock market growth may have drawn investors' attention away from gold despite falling US government bond yields," analysts said. "However, flare-ups in geopolitical risks prompted episodic capital inflows, partially offsetting larger outflows during the month."
XAUUSD : Gold is looking for a direction to create a new peakAfter a sharp decline, gold prices today increased again, fluctuating around 2,369 USD/oz when the Fed Chairman did not comment on reducing interest rates, and global investment funds increased the amount of gold held.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a Senate committee that the economy remains strong. However, he did not make any comments about cutting interest rates, increasing expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates in September. Accordingly, the USD's upward momentum slowed down, benefiting gold prices today. .
GOLD : Gold is increasingly unpredictableXAU/USD has been on the rise since late June, reaching a peak of $2,390 on Friday, representing a 4% gain. This is mainly due to the USD falling by 1%, as gold prices are often more volatile than the USD.
Weak jobs data pushed gold prices up on Friday, weakening the dollar and bringing the timing of an interest rate cut closer. However, it is worth noting that gold decreased by 0.8% immediately after the release of the report.
The market's subsequent reaction was of the "good for evil" variety: labor market weakness increased expectations of an early interest rate cut, which boosted risk appetite. However, this is a very difficult trend to sustain, because not all negative factors in the macroeconomy reduce inflation.
On the contrary, we see wage growth (4.1% over the same period last year) is still higher than inflation (3.3%). At the same time, hiring figures from previous months were revised downward, and the unemployment rate reached a 31-month high.
However, it is likely that gold prices will continue to be under pressure. The 50-day MA at $2,340 is considered the first signal mark. If this zone is broken without resistance from buyers, XAU/USD could quickly retreat to the $2,300 zone, a key level to determine the trend in the coming months. A drop below this level would be considered a break in the uptrend since October, when the Fed first signaled its readiness to cut interest rates.
XAUUSD : Gold is rotating above the old peakWorld gold is fluctuating around 2,363 USD/oz. World gold prices "evaporated" in the context of technology stocks in the US rising sharply. Accordingly, investors focus their capital on stocks, causing cash flow into this precious metal to be limited, causing a disadvantage for gold prices today.
On the other hand, after the gold price increased sharply to 2,391 USD/oz, many investors quickly took profits, especially in May and June 2024, China had 2 consecutive months of not buying gold. This week, the market's attention will be focused on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement in testimony before Congress and US inflation data scheduled for release on July 11.
XAUUSD : Gold will return to its old peak within the weekWorld gold is fluctuating around 2,395 USD/oz. The world gold market will likely be more exciting this week after escaping the gloom for a long time. The price of this precious metal is expected to be affected by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at his testimony before Congress, growth data for June, weekly unemployment claims, index reports US producer prices and preliminary survey results on consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan.
Currently, optimism is covering the gold market, as recent data shows cracks in the US economy, the US labor market is increasingly weakening and inflation is decreasing. All the data reinforces the possibility that the Fed will soon introduce monetary policy easing and lower interest rates, which should support the price of the precious metal gold.
GOLD : Gold will be strong and have new peaksGold prices have soared this year - hitting a record in May - due to central bank purchases, while policymakers in countries including India, China and Singapore is looking to diversify its reserves. The precious metal is also supported by geopolitical tensions and bets that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as inflation cools.
Christopher Wong, strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking, said "the possibility of gold prices falling should not be ruled out" following the PBOC data. "But it is not unusual for China to temporarily stop buying gold, because gold prices have increased quite sharply."
According to data released on Sunday, the amount of gold bullion held by the PBOC was unchanged at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. The PBOC decided not to add to reserves in May, ending an 18-month net purchase.
According to Krishan Gopaul, an analyst at the World Gold Council (WGC), the Reserve Bank of India added more than 9 tons of gold in June, based on weekly data. This is the highest figure since July 2022 and it shows that India's gold reserves have increased by 37 tonnes to 841 tonnes this year.
Gold prices fell 0.3% to 2,385.55 USD/ounce at 10:40 a.m. in Singapore. The DXY index remained unchanged. Silver prices held above $31 an ounce after rising more than 7% last week, while palladium and platinum fell.
According to Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, it is possible that rising gold prices have prevented the PBOC from buying. However, she said gold could still rally further amid growing expectations of the Fed's monetary easing policy this year, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks.
XAUUSD:Gold will continue to climb to the top in the near futureAccording to experts, precious metal prices have just gained momentum after the speech of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Mr. Jerome Powell said that US inflation has cooled down. Experts and investors are increasing expectations that the Fed will soon begin a cycle of lowering interest rates.
According to Bloomberg, excessive spending by the US government and increasing geopolitical instability have prompted large investors to buy gold to hedge against public debt risks. Mr. Johanna Kyrklund, chief information officer of Schroders Group, said that the market today faces many risks related to geopolitics and inflation, supporting gold - a safe haven asset.
XAUUSD : Gold trades around $2,350 to $2,365In this morning's trading session, world gold prices rose to their highest level in nearly two weeks around 2,360 USD/ounce. Due to rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, after recent US data showed a weakening labor market.
Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said: "Today's rise in gold prices is related to the weakening of the USD after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted in public that inflation in the US is finally starting to move in the right direction."
XAUUSD : Gold will fluctuate strongly at the end of the weekWorld gold prices fluctuated around 2,329 USD/ounce in the first trading hours of the Asian session. Gold prices this week are forecast to be volatile as the market receives a series of important data, including employment data and minutes of the June FOMC meeting.
In his latest statement, Mr. Powell still emphasized his view that the US Central Bank will need more data before making a decision to cut interest rates to ensure that inflation is falling sustainably towards the target mark.
Michele Schneider - chief strategist of MarketGauge, commented that world gold prices are stable amid many risks. However, inflation, geopolitical tensions and the US government's budget deficit are increasing, which firmly supports gold prices.