Gold will likely resume its upward trendThe recent short-term uptrend is showing signs of reversing when gold prices have dropped more than 4% from the historic peak of 2,450 USD, set just a few trading sessions ago. This adjustment shows that investor psychology is changing, as buyers tend to take profits and look for investment channels with higher profitability.
Tonight, 19:30 Vietnam time, the US core PCE index will be announced. With the return of fundamental factors, gold may continue to decline in the short term. Persistent inflation will likely force the Fed to maintain a "hawkish" stance for longer, adding to the bearish bias in non-yielding assets, creating an unfavorable environment for the precious metal.
Xauusdforexsignal
XAUUSD : Gold stopped its upward trend this weekWorld gold price (XAU/USD) increased slightly to close at 2,343 USD after the second preliminary estimate of US Q1 GDP growth rate showed stagnation, increasing market expectations for Fed's future rate reduction. Meanwhile, recent negative technical news along with hawkish comments from Fed officials are still weighing on market sentiment. However, many experts agree that long-term dynamics such as geopolitical tensions, global economic instability, trade wars or demands from central banks, especially the PBOC, will continue. continue to support gold prices to rise.
XAUUSD : Gold turned down sharply and hung for two daysGold prices have broken the support level around $2,335, where the rising trendline intersects the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May rally. Combined with higher-than-average trading volume will be a signal for change. Many traders are selling gold and the bearish trend may continue.
In the event that XAU/USD plummets below $2,335, the 50-day SMA at $2,325 will be the bearish guard for the next bearish curve. While breaking this support may be difficult, if successful, there is room for a pullback to $2,265.
Conversely, if gold prices reverse upward, resistance will be at $2,365, followed by $2,377. If the gold price breaks through the resistance level at $2,377, the possibility of a decline will be significantly reduced. This breakout could open the door for further price increases to $2,420.
XAUUSD : Gold will increase strongly againAlthough the price of gold is slightly decreasing today, looking at the technical level, the prospect of an increase in price of this precious metal is still very high as XAU/AUD is trading actively above the 100 EMA today. However, the indicator RSI 14 is currently at an intermediate level around the 50 line, showing the possibility that XAU/USD will move sideways or not have a clear trend in the short term.
The first upside price target will appear at the upper border of the Bollinger band at $2,427. If gold's momentum is sustained, prices could head towards an all-time high of $2,450. Breaking through this resistance level, gold could rise to the psychological level of $2,500.
Conversely, the $2,325 level will be the initial support zone for XAU/USD. The next key support level is $2,300. Any sell-off below this level would send gold prices closer to the lower edge of the Bollinger band at $2,277, followed by the 100-day EMA at $2,222.
XAUUSD : Gold is recovering againWorld gold price (XAU/USD) yesterday increased more than 25 USD to a high of 2,358 USD. Although expectations about the Fed cutting interest rates recently have many negative changes, gold has a lot of momentum and one of the measurements is that the world geopolitical situation is becoming more complicated with military conflicts. There is increasing tension between Israel and Hamas forces. But analysts predict that investors are still betting on gold prices to increase in the near future. Forecasts say that by the end of the week, gold price will increase to 2,375 USD.
Gold will turn around and continue to riseGold prices rose during the Asian session on Monday. The metal's rise is supported by a weak USD and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Speeches from Fed officials such as Fed Chair Michelle Bowman, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari on Tuesday will be notable. However, lower bets on a Fed rate cut this year and a hawkish stance from Fed officials could weigh on gold prices.
On Monday, US banks will be closed due to the Memorial Day holiday. Gold traders will wait for further cues from the Fed's statements on Tuesday. Of particular interest will be US GDP data for the first quarter on Thursday, which is expected to increase 1.5% in the first quarter. Stronger-than-expected data could strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices.
Gold continues to decline after 2 daysSpot gold prices continued to decline on Thursday, with the lowest trading level at 2,327.28 USD. The precious metal fell sharply for the second straight week, with the USD initially taking advantage of the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Documents released on Wednesday showed officials expressed concern about the lack of progress in achieving the 2% inflation target, but remained confident that inflation would fall. However, a rate cut seems unlikely before September. The announcement weighed on the stock market, pushing Wall Street to close lower.
XAUUSD : Gold will have a reversal todayAfter only 2 consecutive falling sessions, world gold price (XAU/USD) has dropped more than 100 USD if calculated from the high on May 22. Since the historic peak of 2,450 USD, XAU/USD has dropped more than 120 USD in just 4 sessions.
Gold has been at a disadvantage since Wednesday's hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Just yesterday, preliminary PMI data were released with a spike in the services sector, which accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity. Data shows the US economy remains strong, despite high interest rates, further pushing back investor expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates soon this year.
TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said that although the greenback's recovery and the weakening interest rate outlook have triggered a sell-off in the gold market, the correction will not be too deep. According to him, gold is adjusting to the view that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, while at this meeting, the Fed mentioned the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation remains "persistent".
UBS Bank recently raised its gold price forecast to 2,600 USD by the end of 2024 and advised investors to wait to buy at about 2,300 USD or lower.
XAUUSD : Gold will be an interesting thing in this marketSince the shock increase and decrease on Monday following the speeches of Fed officials, the gold price (XAU/USD) has had almost no significant fluctuations, fluctuating around 2,420 USD/ounce.
Many experts believe that the reason gold does not fluctuate much after officials' hawkish speeches is because the Fed's monetary policy only has a secondary impact on gold prices. Currently, investors are still concerned about inflation risks, economic instability along with geopolitics and that makes them rush into this precious metal to hedge against risks.
According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased more than 16%, reaching a record high of 2,450 USD/ounce earlier this week. Some experts believe that gold prices will increase further. Citibank analysts recently optimistically commented that gold could reach 3,000 USD/ounce within the next 6 - 18 months.
Despite that optimism, most are not sure when gold will hit the $3,000/ounce mark. The driving force that can bring gold to that level is probably the "nod" to loosen monetary policy from the Fed.
Gold will create a big surprise at the end of the yearGold prices have risen to a new all-time high, hitting $2,440 in the morning and $2,450 in the afternoon Vietnam time due to shelter demand as geopolitical tensions increase. According to Reuters, the reason is that Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, and other high-ranking Iranian politicians were killed in a helicopter crash in the North of the country over the weekend. This increases instability in an already tense region because of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Factors supporting gold prices
Geopolitical tensions escalate: Russia opens a second front in Kharkiv and close ties between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Putin's recent visit to Beijing add to concerns about the formation of a new order, seriously affecting world peace and free trade.
Demand from BRICS countries and central banks in emerging economies: According to the IMF, gold demand from BRICS countries and central banks in emerging economies has increased significantly in recent years as a preventive measure against Western sanctions. This trend is expected to continue to increase in light of recent instability in the world.
Expectations for a Fed rate cut: Gold also benefits from the general expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates at their current high levels for longer. This is beneficial for gold because it will reduce the opportunity cost of holding this non-interest-bearing asset compared to USD or government bonds.
April CPI and Retail Sales data: This change in outlook comes from April CPI and Retail Sales data released last week. Although Fed members are still avoiding revealing when the Fed might cut interest rates, the market still predicts a 65% chance that the Fed will cut the first time in September, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Currently, Fed Chairman Jefferson will give his final speech of this Monday. However, there probably won't be too many fluctuations because the previous three speeches seem to partly reflect the Fed's current hawkish stance and gold prices have also dropped sharply from the historic peak of 2,450 USD.
XAUUSD : Gold increased and decreased unusually stronglyWorld gold prices (XAU/USD) soared yesterday, reaching 2,440 USD in the morning session, then had another increase, reaching a new high again at 2,450 USD in the afternoon session and holding near this mark before when it fell sharply after the somewhat hawkish speech of Fed officials in the evening session.
Kitco Metals experts said that the news that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a plane crash has raised concerns and that has triggered the role of precious metals as a haven.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is among the experts who are bullish on gold in the short term. According to him, both the USD and US government bond yields seem to be in a downward trend and that will provide support for this precious metal. Besides, gold surpassing the psychological threshold of 2,400 USD/ounce will be a stepping stone for this precious metal towards the 2,500 USD/ounce mark.
In addition, Senior Market Strategist Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures said that, in addition to "persistent" inflation, the US public debt burden is also a factor driving gold's recovery. With the same opinion, experts from ROTH Capital Partners also predict that gold prices will increase further in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
XAUUSD : Gold has hit an all-time highWorld gold prices (XAU/USD) skyrocketed this morning, reaching 2,440 USD/ounce before retreating again at around 08:10 Vietnam time. In the absence of information at the beginning of the week and expectations that were almost completely reflected last week, gold prices seem to be reacting with some new momentum.
Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey results show the majority of experts believe gold prices could reach or surpass all-time highs, while retail traders are cautious. this precious metal.
Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is among the experts who are bullish on gold in the short term. According to him, both the USD and US government bond yields seem to be in a downward trend and that will provide support for this precious metal. Besides, gold surpassing the psychological threshold of 2,400 USD/ounce will be a stepping stone for this precious metal towards the 2,500 USD/ounce mark.
With the same opinion, ROTH Capital Partners analysts also predict that gold prices will increase even higher in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
Gold officially set a historic peak, surpassing the 2,440 mark!Gold has just set a new all-time high, as investor demand across the entire market skyrocketed due to growing confidence that the US will cut interest rates this year.
Gold bullion increased 1.1%, reaching $2,440.59/oz early in the Asian session, surpassing the previous record set in April. This price increase is said to be due to traders becoming increasingly confident that the Fed may reduce interest rates as early as September this year.
The dollar fell and US government bonds rose sharply last week, after data released on Wednesday showed April inflation fell more than expected. This is supportive for gold, a precious metal that does not yield interest and is priced in USD.
XAUUSD : Gold will reach its all-time highWorld gold price (XAU/USD) decreased slightly yesterday after increasing to nearly reach 2,400 USD/ounce. According to experts, the reason may be due to profit-taking pressure after the strong increase the previous day. In addition, the recovery of the USD is also detrimental to gold.
In the short term, the combination of stable inflation and weakness in other economic data such as retail sales actually provides positive support for gold. In the long term, according to Ms. Gita Gopinath, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, gold is increasingly asserting its position in a context full of potential economic and political risks. Gold demand has increased steadily because the precious metal is considered a "politically neutral haven asset that can be stored domestically and avoid sanctions or confiscation."
With the same opinion, ROTH Capital Partners analysts also predict that gold prices will increase even higher in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
GOLD : Gold will continue to increase to the highest levelGold prices are in a slight decline. The reason may be due to profit taking after increasing by more than 1% the previous day. The release of lower-than-expected US CPI and Retail Sales data for April has led to a change in expectations about the Fed's future interest rate path - an important factor contributing to the direction of gold prices. .
Lower-than-expected CPI data shows signs of cooling inflation, meaning the time for the Fed to lower interest rates may come sooner. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates from its September meeting. This number is much higher than the 65% level before the announcement, according to FXStreet editor Lallalit Srijandorn.
However, the outlook for the precious metal remains positive as demand from central banks - especially in emerging markets - continues to be strong, geopolitical risks remain present and trade concerns remain strong. Global trade is unstable due to political factors.
In fact, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand increased 3% to 1,238 tons in Q1, the strongest increase since 2016.
Gold fell and broke through, continue to be bearish on gold
After gold rebounded and came under pressure at 2350 resistance, it fell directly, and then fell below a new low. Gold broke through and fell, and short-term bulls were weak.
The 30-minute moving average of gold has formed a dead cross downward short position. The 30-minute gold has formed a downward trend. It has rebounded weakly along the downward trend line. Now the resistance of the downward trend line is just around 2341.
26/3. Risk aversion has cooled, will gold fall sharply?
News: The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution clearly calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages.
Demands an immediate ceasefire during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which ends in two weeks, and the release of all hostages held by Hamas in an attack on southern Israel on October 7 last year.
The deadline ends on April 9
Gold has retreated due to the impact of geopolitics. The lowest level reached 2167.
After the start of the Asian session, gold prices continued to impact upward. This proves that the bullish trend in the market is still relatively strong. Currently located at the 2172 line. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar fluctuated and fell from highs. The largest hedge funds may also abandon the United States and invest in Europe. It has also been pointed out that the US dollar is overvalued. The U.S. dollar index is currently above 104. Although the short-term ceasefire in Gaza has reduced risk aversion for gold. Not conducive to rising gold prices. But the overvaluation of the U.S. dollar is undoubtedly a support for gold.
Technically, gold has shown a bullish trend. Although there is no news boost, technical support is still strong. Observe the 2165-2162 line below. If the upper position stabilizes at 2175, then the probability of rising to above 2183 is very high. Of course, this also requires the U.S. dollar to take advantage of the trend.
In terms of trading, buying low is still the main trend today. The entire transaction is based on actual conditions.
2169-2166 buy
TP2177-2183
SL2159
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