XAUUSD 19/9/2024 Downtrend is over?
Looking at H1 we see that after the FOMC news we witnessed a strong price increase creating ATH at the 2600 area. Then there was a strong decrease to the 2547 area
- So wave 5 has completed as expected my target. now we expect an ABC correction
- Looking at the chart we see a strong decline suggesting a completed wave A, this strong decline also shows us that wave A has a 5-wave structure so this correction we expect a correction according to the ABC Zigzac correction structure
- The target of wave B I expect at the 2580 - 2583 zone or the 2579 - 2600 zone this is our SELL target
- After completing the target of wave B the price continues to decrease to complete wave C I expect the target to complete wave C at the price zone of 2528 - 2525 this will be our BUY target
- We also have a strong support zone at the price zone of 2451 - 2448 this will be our BUY scalp zone
Trading plan
SELL ZONE 2580 - 2583
SL: 2590
TP1: 2570
TP2: 2562
TP3: 2551
SELL ZONE: 2597 - 2600
SL: 2607
TP1: 2590
TP2: 2579
TP3: 2562
BUY ZONE: 2551 - 2448
SL: 2561
TP1: 2562
TP2: 2570
TP3: 2579
BUY ZONE: 2528 - 2525
TP1: 2541
TP2: 2551
TP3: 2562
Xauusdidea
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 XAUUSD Gold has broken its market structure to the downside. On the daily and 4-hour charts, we observe a pullback into equilibrium, presenting a potential buying opportunity. In this video, we discuss market structure, price action, and, most importantly, the trend. We also outline a possible trade setup if the price moves as outlined in the video.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
XAUUSD: Navigating Key LQZ 4 HIGH-PROBABILITY shortMulti-Timeframe Analysis of XAUUSD
1. 4-Hour Chart
Key Structure:
All-Time High (ATH) at $2,600.318: This level acts as a strong resistance. Price has rejected this zone, showing an initial failure to break higher.
Corrective Channel: The price has formed a small ascending corrective channel after the ATH rejection, which often indicates a potential continuation move downwards.
Key Liquidity Zones (LQZs):
4H LQZ at $2,522.172: This zone could act as the next support if the downtrend continues.
Daily LQZ at $2,511.042: Deeper support that aligns with the broader timeframe.
Implication: Based on the corrective channel and the rejection of ATH, a continuation down towards the 4H and Daily LQZ is likely unless a strong bullish push occurs.
2. 15-Minute Chart
Bearish Momentum: The price formed a sharp drop after the ATH rejection, leading to a corrective structure forming.
Ascending Channel: A bearish ascending channel (corrective) is visible, which may suggest further downside. A clean break below the lower boundary of this channel would confirm bearish continuation.
1H LQZ at $2,542.056: This zone is likely to be the first target if the breakout occurs.
Implication: If the price breaks below the corrective channel, a potential short entry targeting the 1H LQZ is a strong play. A further drop to the 4H LQZ could follow if momentum continues.
3. 5-Minute Chart
Current Reaction:
The price is bouncing from the lower part of the small corrective structure. There is a minor bounce from the 5M LQZ at $2,562.855.
Next Step:
Monitor for price rejection or failure at the 5M LQZ. If it fails to sustain this level, a short opportunity arises.
Implication: A break below the 5-minute structure could lead to a fast move down toward the 1H LQZ. Watch for strong rejections at this level.
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Trade Setup Suggestion:
1. Entry:
Aggressive: If the price breaks the corrective channel on the 15-minute chart, you can enter short near $2,562-$2,564.
Conservative: Wait for a confirmed break and retest of the lower channel boundary.
2. Stop Loss:
Set above the corrective channel high, around $2,580, to protect against sudden bullish reversals.
3. Targets:
First target: 1H LQZ at $2,542.056.
Second target: 4H LQZ at $2,522.172.
Third target: Daily LQZ at $2,511.042 if further downside persists.
Conclusion:
The price structure and liquidity zones indicate a bearish continuation is possible, especially if the corrective channel breaks down. Keep an eye on how price interacts with the liquidity zones to refine entries and exits.
The 2550 target has been achieved, how to trade next?
Currently, gold has fallen below 2550, and our short-term goal has been achieved. Due to the rapid and sharp decline, there is a need for a rebound and repair on the technical side. It is expected that there will be an increase in the intraday tomorrow. The transaction can be mainly based on low-level longs, and short again after rebounding to the resistance.
XAUUSD: Sell@2577-2590
Have a nice day. I was away on a business trip Tuesday, and just got back today—I hope everyone is doing well.
Gold did not follow my initial expectation of a decline. Instead, after breaking through resistance, it experienced a significant rally. Today, it broke past 2580, setting a new all-time high. Based on current indicators, the market still has upward momentum, and we can't rule out the possibility of testing 2600. However, before that happens, there will likely be a test of support.
Thus, my trading approach is to short gold in the 2577-2590 range for now.
Gold Set to Decline After European Session
Today, the primary focus is on short positions after the European session. During the Asian session, there may be another test of the upper resistance, but the probability of a breakout is low. Therefore, after the European session, bearish momentum is expected to take control. Our trading strategy should align with this trend by initiating sell positions. In the near term, the market is likely to decline towards the 2550 level, with a medium-term target around the 2487 zone.
Gold on the Edge: Rising Wedge Breakdown or Support Bounce?4-Hour Chart:
Consolidation Below All-Time High:
After reaching the all-time high, the price is consolidating in a rising wedge pattern. This formation reflects indecision in the market, but the overall structure suggests potential for a downward move.
Key Levels:
4H LQZ TP1 (2,550.342): A strong support level and a possible target for short positions if the price drops.
4H LQZ TP2 (2,522.172): The second support level, likely to attract buyers if tested.
Strategy: If the price breaks down from the rising wedge and fails to hold support at 2,550.342, a move toward 2,522.172 could be expected. A reversal could occur at either of these liquidity zones.
1-Hour Chart:
Descending Channel (near support): The price is trending lower after failing to break above the all-time high. The descending channel is not steep, suggesting mild bearish pressure.
Support Levels:
1H LQZ (2,542.481): Immediate support for the current descending structure.
4H LQZ (2,522.172): Deeper support, aligned with the broader market structure, giving more room for a potential pullback.
Strategy: A break below the 1H LQZ could accelerate the sell-off, targeting the 4H LQZ. Watch for consolidation or buying pressure at these levels, as they are potential reversal points.
15-Minute Chart:
Rising Wedge: The price is forming a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal, suggesting potential weakness in the uptrend. The price has made lower highs while testing a crucial support zone.
Key Levels:
All-Time High (2,589.652): The price tested this region but has failed to sustain momentum above it. This could indicate a major resistance level.
1H LQZ (2,542.481): The first level of significant support, serving as a take-profit target (TP1) for short positions. If the price breaks below, it could accelerate toward this level.
4H LQZ (2,522.172): The next key support zone (TP2), which could act as a strong buying area if the price corrects further.
Strategy: Watch for a potential breakdown from the rising wedge. A confirmed break below the wedge and support levels could indicate a stronger move downward toward 1H LQZ or 4H LQZ.
Overall Summary:
Bearish Bias: Across all time frames, the rising wedge formation points to potential bearish pressure, especially with failure to break above the all-time high.
Key Levels:
The all-time high (2,589.652) remains the major resistance.
Watch for reactions around 1H LQZ (2,542.481) and 4H LQZ (2,522.172) for potential support and buying opportunities.
Breakout or Breakdown: If the price breaks below the wedge patterns on the 15-minute and 4-hour charts, further downside toward the liquidity zones is likely. However, a rebound could signal renewed bullish momentum.
This setup is perfect for monitoring entry points based on key support/resistance levels and the wedge formations' breakdown potential.
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Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
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Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
XAU/USD 18 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or Daily and H4 POI's.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price met yesterday's intraday expectation by targeting weak internal low.
This is in-line with all HTF as a pullback is required.
Price has printed a further bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low, however, we should be mindful that, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, price is likely to be highly volatile.
M15 Chart:
Gold Forms Triangle Consolidation, Double Top Reversal in Sight?
Yesterday, gold made its first pullback to test support and has now formed a triangle consolidation pattern. I anticipate that today will begin with an upward movement, followed by another test of resistance. However, I believe the resistance will hold, leading to another decline. Eventually, gold is likely to break below the trendline, forming a double top at the highs and triggering a significant bearish reversal.
Gold Nearing Peak: Time to Short Ahead of Expected Pullback
Gold has reached a high level, and technical indicators are starting to show signs of weakening. I anticipate that we are about to see the final short-term push upward, followed by a return to a downward consolidation trend. Prices are expected to drop below 2550.
The current trading strategy is to initiate short positions, gradually adding more as the price fluctuates, and holding until the downward trend begins.
Gold Stagnates at Resistance: A Breakdown Imminent?
Gold has been consolidating at its high levels for some time, with the resistance zone clearly defined. As long as this resistance remains unbroken, the primary focus should be on short positions. The longer the price consolidates, the sharper the eventual decline is expected to be.
Gold: Will start selling above 2590
Currently, the gold price is at 2584. I believe it should rise to the 2590-2596 range before starting to decline, with a significant drop likely to occur, potentially reaching the 2563 area. Therefore, I plan to initiate a sell position near 2590, with take-profit targets set in the 2573-2561 range.
Gold's price movement could be influenced by market supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and economic data, so I will closely monitor market developments to adjust my strategy as needed.
XAU/USD 17 September 2024 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
After a very long period price has printed it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation which was in accordance to my intraday analysis of yesterday 16 September 2024.
Internal range has now been established.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price will be highly volatile.
Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price did not meet yesterday's intraday expectation by printing a bearish iBOS.
This was expected as all HTF's require a pullback.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
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Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
XAU/USD 16 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned on 13 September 2024, price to indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH was significantly positioned away from price therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price.
This is how price printed with CHoCH positioning being brought significantly closer to current price action.
Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices.
Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH indicating bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at discount of 50% EQ. Technically price should target weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
Historical high for pullback target 2500Historical high for pullback target 2500
Fundamental Analysis of XAU/USD
US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy:
Interest Rates: Higher US rates make the dollar stronger and reduce the attractiveness of gold, as the precious metal does not pay interest. Lower rates, on the contrary, weaken the dollar and increase demand for gold.
Inflation: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. Rising US inflation could push gold prices higher.
Economic and Geopolitical Risks:
Gold has traditionally been a safe haven asset, which is in demand during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical crises. Examples include global financial crises, military conflicts, and tensions between countries.
US Dollar Rate:
Since gold is quoted in dollars, the movement of the USD rate directly affects the price of gold. A weak dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, which increases its demand.
Gold Demand:
Physical Demand: Industrial demand, jewelry demand, and investment demand (through gold ETFs) are also important for gold price dynamics.
Central Bank Stocks: When central banks buy or sell gold, it can have a significant impact on its price.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
Technical analysis uses price charts and indicators. Some popular methods of analysis include:
Trend Lines:
Analyze the long-term trend (upward, downward, or sideways). If the trend is up, gold may continue to rise unless there are signs of a reversal.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Identify key levels where the price has bounced or held off previously. These levels can be used to decide when to enter or exit a position.
Indicators:
Moving Averages: Used to analyze the general direction of a trend. A crossover of a short moving average with a long moving average from top to bottom may indicate the beginning of a downtrend, and vice versa.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator: Shows whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Values above 70 indicate overbought, below 30 indicate oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Helps to assess changes in the strength and direction of a trend.
Candlestick patterns:
Some candlestick combinations, such as Hammer, Engulfing, or Doji, can signal a price reversal or continuation of the current trend.