XAUUSD top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Xauusdidea
Gold Idea 📈 Market Bias: Bullish
Analyzing the daily timeframe on Gold, we see clear signs of bullish momentum. The price action suggests a potential move upward, targeting the liquidity above the current levels.
Key insights:
✨ Liquidity Grab: Watch for price to sweep above significant highs, triggering buy-side liquidity.
✨ Daily FVG (Fair Value Gap): A critical imbalance lies above, making it a probable magnet for price action.
The narrative aligns with bullish order flow, indicating a high likelihood of continuation to fill the daily FVG. Stay patient and wait for confirmations if you're planning to enter.
💡 Trading Reminder: Always follow your trading plan and manage risk effectively. The market often surprises, so protect your capital!
What’s your bias on Gold? Bullish or bearish? Drop your thoughts below!
Gold Trend and PatternsTrend and Patterns
Long-term trend: Based on the latest analysis, the XAUUSD pair shows mixed signals. On the one hand, there are forecasts for a possible rise in the gold price to $2900-$3000 levels in 2025, after which a significant drop to $1700-$1500 is expected. On the other hand, current analyses point to a possible continuation of the uptrend in the short term.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support: Important support levels include areas around 2607 and 2638.88 where there is buying interest.
Resistance: Resistance levels include 2663, 2680.35, and a higher level around 2720, which may restrain further price gains.
Indicators and Oscillators
Fibonacci: The use of Fibonacci levels shows that the pair is testing pullback levels such as 38.2% and 61.8%, which may provide signals for market entry.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment analysis shows that retail traders are often in long positions, which may indicate the possibility of counter-trend trading.
Conclusion
The XAUUSD pair has exhibited volatility typical of precious metals this year, with possible upside and downside scenarios. Strong support and resistance levels indicate potential entry and exit points for trading. It is important to keep an eye on the key levels mentioned above, as well as macroeconomic news that can significantly influence the gold price.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAU/USD 16 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Weekly and Daily TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Recent Intraday expectation was not met with price failing to target weak internal low, by printing a bullish iBOS.
It would be noteworthy to remember that H4 and Daily TF internal structure is bullish.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price seems to be targeting weak internal high, which, in my view, is premature, however, I will remain structured in my approach. At the time of preparing analysis M15 candle remains open.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has yet to trade in to discount of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone. Expectation is for price to target weak internal high, priced at 2,702.260
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD Is gold on a bear-run for 2025? Hey 👋🏾 y'all I am back with my first publication of 2025! I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday season and is ready to absolutely CRUSH this year!!
Let's dive in:
As you can see from my 4H price is in a giant correction. Price attempted to push higher, however continues to fail to do so.
The 15m liquidity zone (15m LQZ) we can see price is having difficulty closing above there and in fact sells off rather aggressively from that level.
This is 1 indication, or confluence, that price will more than likely melt to the downside. Not, before however, giving us a false sense of hope that she will reach previous highs.
By that I mean to say that I believe price will push higher first, stall out (form a smaller 1H or 15m ascending channel within my larger 4H ascending channel) and then melt.
I expect price to push up and stall around where I have placed my top trendline - giving me the all-clear to ride this elevator to the downside.
Like always it is not my job to predict the markets, but to react...time will tell.
I have a setup in mind for the long position as well. However, let's see if this short position plays out this week (Thursday and Friday).
I will update y'all at the end of the week 😁 byyyyeeee! ✌🏾
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
1/14 Gold Trading StrategiesTrading Strategy:
SELL 2677-2684
TP 2664-2652
Resistance is located between 2677 and 2684, while support is between 2656 and 2648.
On the 1-hour chart, this pullback has not broken below the support zone, so the overall trend remains bullish. During this rebound, the key resistance lies in the 2677-2684 range. If the resistance is not broken, a retest of the support becomes inevitable. Based on the current indicators and market structure, the probability of a breakout seems low. Therefore, the trading strategy is to focus on shorting around the resistance zone.
XAU/USD - Weekly Analysis - Jan 13-17, 2025Overall Trend:
The PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD pair has been riding a bullish trend over recent months, with gold prices hitting all-time highs in September 2024 near $2,635 per ounce. Currently, the pair remains above the 50- and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the continuation of the upward trajectory.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
$2,657 : Now acting as a key level after previously serving as strong resistance during pullbacks.
$2,621 : A previously identified support zone during price corrections.
Resistance:
$2,723 : A significant resistance zone, historically alternating as support and resistance since October 2024.
$2,750 : Found at the lower boundary of the premium zone but would require a break of the descending trendline and the resistance above.
Technical Patterns and Indicators:
Candlestick Patterns:
Recent bullish candlestick formations like "marubozu" and "bullish engulfing" indicate strong buying pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone (above 59), signaling potential for pullbacks or consolidation.
SMC (Smart Money Concepts) and Wyckoff:
The current structure aligns with an accumulation phase, suggesting a high probability of a subsequent bullish breakout, consistent with Wyckoff principles.
Key Fundamental Drivers:
US Monetary Policy:
The Federal Reserve's recent half-point rate cut has added upward momentum to gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and other regions are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Economic Data:
Upcoming US economic reports, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, could sway market sentiment and drive volatility.
Jan 14 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Producer Price Index (PPI): ECONOMICS:USPPIMM
Jan 15 - 1:30 pm GTM 0 - Consumer Price Index (CPI): ECONOMICS:USIRMM ECONOMICS:USIRYY
Jan 16 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Retail Sales ECONOMICS:USRSMM and Unemployment Claims $ ECONOMICS:USIJC
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If XAU/USD breaks above the descending trendline at $2,688, the price could target the $2,723 zone and, with enough momentum, push towards $2,750.
Bearish Scenario:
In the event of corrections, the pair may find support at $2,657, or in the case of a deeper pullback, near the base of the expansion channel at approximately $2,621.
Seasonal Considerations:
Historically, the start of the year tends to be favorable for gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors.
Continue to short gold after the reboundI have published today's trading strategy in the channel, although gold’s decline has started to slow and localized rebounds are emerging, I believe the overall trend has not reversed, and the downward movement is likely to continue. Therefore, I do not think this is the right time to go long on gold. Opening long positions now could result in those positions being overwhelmed by the continued bearish momentum.
For short-term gold trading, I will maintain my strategy of shorting gold following any rebounds. The short-term short-selling target area mainly focuses on 2672-2682,and my target remains in the 2660-2650 range. Stay disciplined and patient in executing your trades!
Bros, are you optimistic about the decline of gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
#XAUUSD 1DAYXAUUSD (1D Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently approaching a descending trendline resistance, which has consistently limited upward movement in the past. This suggests that the trendline may act as a barrier again, potentially leading to a reversal.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is expected if the price respects the trendline resistance and shows signs of rejection, signaling a possible move to the downside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Entry Zone: Near the trendline resistance after confirmation of rejection.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Placed above the trendline resistance or the recent swing high to manage risk.
Take Profit: Target the next support levels or Fibonacci retracement areas for potential downside objectives.
Market Sentiment:
Bearish sentiment is likely to dominate as long as the price remains below the trendline resistance, maintaining a downward bias in the short term. Proper confirmation is recommended before entering the trade.
XAU/USD 13 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation was met with price successfully targeting weak internal high.
Price subsequently printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH.
We are currently trading within an established range
Price has traded in to discount of internal 50% EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to target weak internal high, priced at 2,697.950.
Price could potentially trade down to M15 demand zone to sweep liquidity before targeting weak internal high.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD 1H BUY PROJECTION 13.02.24Reason for XAUUSD Buy
Gold can be an important part of a diversified investment portfolio because its price increases in response to events that cause the value of paper investments, such as stocks and bonds, to decline. Although the price of gold can be volatile in the short term, it has maintained its value over the long term.
XAUUS/Gold Post NFP Day/Beginning of New WeekDuring pre-NFP analysis we have suggested few levels where sell & buy risk can be taken for at least 60- 120 pips favorable move.
By recalling that 2680/2681 sell pre-NFP given 160 pips quick profitable move. 2690/2696 post-NFP Sell Given 160+ pips favorable move.
Coming towards todays/current week stance, we are considering 2695/2708/2733 levels as resistance and unlikely to sustained above during current week. While 2665/2639/2612 can act as support.
President Donald Trump 2nd inauguration is scheduled on Monday Jan 20, 2025, and before that we may see gold is trading between 2733 - 2612 in big range of 121 points or 12100 pips range. Personally, I think strength would give sell opportunities.
Tell about your idea by commenting on the post.
NFP market, try to short gold!Dear traders:
Gold is currently hovering around 2680, maintaining a bullish structure. However, based on the current price action characteristics, I am hesitant to continue chasing long positions. Over the past two days, there has been significant volatility, with many false signals emerging, making me cautious about blindly going long on gold.
With the NFP and unemployment rate data set to be released in 30min, I believe that even if gold continues its upward trend, the news-driven market may first flush out many lower-level long positions. As a result, gold could experience a pullback before resuming its trajectory.
So in short-term trading, I will still choose to short gold in the 2680-2690 zone first, with the target pointing to the 2660-2650 region.Bros, are you optimistic about the decline of gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!