Xauusdidea
XAUUSD Trading strategy for complex corrections
Look at H1
- We see that currently the price is tending to form a triangle correction pattern.
- As I said before, the price is currently in a complicated adjustment process, we can only wait for the model to complete to determine the next trend.
- And I am also predicting an ABC correction model with the target wave C on the chart with 2 price ranges 2350 and 2365. However, currently we see that the price is in a position where it can form a triangle correction model and ABC correction pattern may continue. So at the present time we wait at the price of 2341.8 to confirm any model.
- If the price breaks 2341.8, the targets of wave C continue to be completed. Then we wait for the target levels of wave C, i.e. area 2350 or area 2365, to sell down.
- If the price cannot break the 2341.8 area, the price may form a triangle correction pattern abcde. Then we wait for the price to break the lower boundary of the triangle pattern to sell to the target area of wave 5.
In general, in a complex adjustment process, it is not feasible to conduct many transactions in this area, so we should patiently wait for the target areas. In this process we will prioritize Scalping
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XAU/USD 19 June 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same analysis dated 17 June 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price traded to the downside, however, price was unable to breach and close below weak internal low where we saw a reaction at a H4 demand level.
Nonetheless, internal structure remains bearish, therefore, price should technically target weak internal low.
Price could potentially continue to trade bullish, react at either premium of 50% EQ or H4 supply level before targeting weak internal low.
Strong swing low is expected to hold, however, it would be worth noting the swing low must be taken as the weekly and daily TF's are both in pullback phase.
Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal low.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 17 June 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed a bullish iBOS following US CPI data release 12 June 2024.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback initiation following bullish iBOS.
Price has reacted from H4 POI and continued bullish to target weak internal high, however, price was unable to breach and close above weak internal high reacting at an M15 POI.
Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high. Price could target more liquidity by trading down to nested H4 and M15 POI's before targeting weak internal high.
Alternative scenario is price could target strong internal low as H4 internal structure is bearish.
M15 Chart:
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According to the current short-term structure, gold has returned to above the moving average and maintained a strong trend, and there is still some room for gold to rise. But overall, gold is still in a period of shock, so after gold rises, it will still fall again. Therefore, we still have to focus on shorting gold at the moment, but we must seize the opportunity to short gold.
Gold has risen strongly in the short term and has a certain continuation. According to the current short-term momentum, gold will continue to rise and try to touch the 2330-2335 area, or even near 2340, which is also a short-term resistance area. So in terms of short-term trading, I will short gold in batches in the 2330-2340 area. After the bullish momentum is consumed, gold will continue to fall!
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XAUUSD June 18, 2024 a potential sharp declineGold prices are recovering after last week's sell-off as the US economy forced the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. Weak manufacturer inflation data and a rise in initial jobless claims supported lower interest rates. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions, such as increased attacks by Hezbollah on Israel and more Russian warships in the Caribbean, have contributed to this rebound.
Looking at the adjustment process from June 8 to the present time, we can see that this is a complicated adjustment process.
- Trading in a complex correction is not recommended. We watch for this adjustment process to complete
- During this process we can scalp in short price ranges in smaller frames.
- When the price reaches the expected targets, we will consider placing an order.
Looking at H1, we see that the wave C correction process is still continuing. We observe the price reaching the target price zones 2350 and 2356.
- The price will confirm the target areas of wave C when it breaks out of the 2341.8 area, then we focus on observing the chart to find a Sell order.
- In case the price breaks out of the 2296 price range, it is likely that the adjustment process has been completed and if the price also breaks out of the 2287 area, then the target price area for wave 5 is 2256 and 2210 will be the areas we focus on. closely to find Buy orders.
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Gold is weak, keep shorting goldThe current market is still volatile, without any breaking behavior. In fact, since the start of London trading hours, there has not been a good opportunity to participate in market transactions, and it has been fluctuating around the 2315-2323 area.
However, judging from the strength of today's rebound, the upward momentum of gold is obviously insufficient, and it can't even stand at 2324. Relatively speaking, the performance of gold is still weak, and there are signs of a double top structure in the short-term chart, which suppresses gold. So in terms of trading, I still tend to short gold. But in order to avoid a wash-out breakthrough like Friday, we must grasp the trading rhythm in short-term trading, so as not to be easily eliminated.
During the period of gold volatility, we focus on the upper resistance of 2335-2340, but as gold gradually moves downward, we first pay attention to the short-term resistance of 2325-2330; and on the bottom, we first pay attention to the support of 2305-2300. If it breaks through 2300, the target will move downward.
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XAUUSD After a week of volatile news from the Fed
Last week we observed that US inflation indicators showed signs of cooling down.
- Wednesday's CPI dropped from 3.45 to 3.3%
- PPI index decreased -0.2%
Inflation indicators decreased while economic indicators were negative
- As the unemployment rate and unemployment benefit application rate increase
This shows that the Fed's monetary policy is effectively reducing inflation, specifically consumer price CPI and production costs, while also reflecting the negative economic impact of the policy. this book. This requires that the Fed may begin to loosen monetary policy in the near future
Look at D1
- We see that the correction has completed wave B and is continuing wave C of wave 4.
- We can measure the target of wave C at 2 price zones 2256 and 2210 price zones.
- We have a price zone confirming the final wave 4 which is the 2150 price zone. If the price breaks through this zone, our ABC wave counting process is no longer correct, then we have to re-plan a new plan based on new data.
Look at H1
- The price has broken out through the 2323 zone and is testing this zone again. Looking at the reversing momentum in the oversold area, it is likely that the price has successfully tested and continues to rise to the target areas of wave C above.
- Yesterday we measured the target wave C which is 2 areas 2354 and 2360
- The target area of wave C is a very good area for us to look for Sell down orders
- Combined with chart D1, we will have the price range where this decrease will end at 2256 or 2210.
- We also have a zone that denies this wave counting process when the price surpasses the 2388 zone, then the price has entered an uptrend and we are forced to change our trading strategy at that time (I will update later if that happens).
Xauusd after a series of important news from the FedYesterday's news announced to us
First, the ppi decrease combined with the unemployment benefits application index increased. Combined with a decrease in CPI, this is beneficial for Gold to increase because the economic situation seems to be weakening, putting pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates. However, Nonfarm data, specifically the employment index, has increased sharply in the recent period, which is the motivation for the Fed to keep the current interest rate at 5.9%. This is the reason why PPI news, although beneficial for Gold, cannot last long.
Look at H1
- We are having the idea of an abc correction model. In which we expect wave c to complete
- In front of us we have 2 important price zones: 2307 and 2287, these are 2 price zones that help us determine the direction of the price.
- If the price breaks out at 2307, this is a necessary condition for the orange wave c to complete. Then we have 2 target price zones of wave c: 2350.4 and 2364.6. These are 2 areas where we can look for Sell orders
- If the price breaks out below 2287, this is a necessary condition for the price to fall to the target zone of wave 5, which is 2264. This is the area where we look for a Buy order.
XAUUSD June 13, 2024 After news of CPI and Fed interest rates
Yesterday we had the Fed's announcement about the CPI index, we saw that this index was 0.3 to 0.4 lower than the previous period. This is the result when the Fed implemented tightening monetary policy in the past.
After that, the FOMC meeting announced that interest rates would continue to remain at 5.5%.
- This made gold yesterday, after the announcement of CPI increased to 2340, then the news that interest rates remained high at 5.5% continued to push gold prices down.
Look at the H1 chart
- Yesterday's pullback to the 2340 price range reached the 50% Fibo level, which is a level that has surpassed the usual 38% level of wave 4. This suggests to us a more complex wave model
- For now, at this position, we observe the price zones to confirm the formation model, which are the price zone 2307 and the price zone 2287.
- If the price holds above the 2307 area, then we will have wave 5 formed at the 2287 area, meaning wave C during the ABC correction looks like D1 has completed. Then we have wave C higher than bottom B. Looking at D1, we see that a new complex correction model can form (I will update later).
- If the price breaks through the 2287 area, we have wave 5 targets as on the chart we mentioned before.