Gold (XAU/USD) 4‑Hour Technical Analysis: July 23, 2025Gold continues to trade in a bullish structure on the 4‑hour timeframe, holding above $3,420 after a steady advance from early July lows. At the time of writing, XAU/USD stands at $3,423.8, confirmed by Investing.com. This analysis employs a comprehensive blend of globally‑recognized technical tools — ranging from price action and classical indicators to institutional concepts — to identify the most probable trading zones and a high‑conviction setup.
Current Price Structure and Trend
On the 4‑hour chart, gold maintains a clear bullish market structure, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows since early July. The current price action unfolds within a well‑defined rising channel, bounded approximately between $3,400 on the lower side and $3,450 on the upper. Twice in the past week, price has tested and respected the channel’s lower boundary, confirming its validity.
Support and resistance levels are evident: immediate support lies at $3,410, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July impulse wave. Below that, $3,390–$3,395 offers secondary support at the channel’s base and a longer‑term Fibonacci cluster. Resistance is concentrated at $3,445–$3,450, aligning with the channel top, upper Bollinger Band, and prior swing highs, while a secondary ceiling may emerge near $3,468–$3,470, corresponding to an Elliott Wave 3 extension target.
Candlestick, Volume, and Momentum
Recent price action has been supported by bullish candlestick formations. Notably, a strong bullish engulfing bar formed at $3,410 earlier this week, affirming institutional demand at that level. Volume profile analysis shows the heaviest transaction cluster between $3,410–$3,420, confirming this area as a smart money accumulation zone.
Volume‑weighted average price (VWAP ) currently runs near $3,418, with price holding above it, reflecting institutional positioning in favor of the bulls. Momentum indicators support the trend: MACD on the 4‑hour has just crossed bullish, RSI prints at 60 — strong but not overbought — and ADX climbs to 24, indicating a trend strengthening phase.
Indicators, Patterns, and Institutional Concepts
Trend indicators reinforce the bullish view. The 50‑ and 100‑period exponential moving averages converge around $3,415–$3,420, providing dynamic support. Ichimoku analysis shows price well above the Kumo (cloud), with a bullish Tenkan‑Kijun configuration. Bollinger Bands are widening, and price is leaning toward the upper band — a classic signal of volatility expansion in trend direction.
Classical and harmonic patterns offer further evidence. The current consolidation resembles a bull flag, suggesting continuation. Elliott Wave analysis points to a third wave in progress, with an upside projection into the $3,448–$3,468 area. Smart money concepts confirm that the recent break above $3,420 constituted a bullish break of structure (BOS), with price now retracing into a favorable gap (FVG) and a 4‑hour bullish order block anchored around $3,410–$3,415.
Liquidity and stop‑clusters likely sit above $3,445 and $3,468, making these logical targets for bullish campaigns.
Market Context and Sentiment
Gold is benefiting from a softening US dollar and a drop in volatility indexes. Seasonal tendencies also lean bullish into late summer. Sentiment on professional platforms aligns with this view: TradingView top authors and FXStreet analysts favor buying pullbacks into $3,410–$3,415 and targeting $3,450–$3,468, which harmonizes with this analysis. No major divergence from consensus is noted, adding to confidence.
Identified Trading Zones
Two strong buy zones emerge on the 4‑hour chart. The most immediate and highest‑confidence zone is $3,410–$3,415, supported by channel support, Fibonacci retracement, VWAP, moving averages, and an order block. Below this lies a secondary buy zone at $3,390–$3,395, tied to deeper Fibonacci support and the rising channel’s lower boundary.
On the other hand, clear sell zones are defined at $3,445–$3,450, where upper channel resistance, Bollinger bands, and prior highs converge, and a secondary zone at $3,468–$3,470, aligned with wave targets and round‑number psychological resistance. These areas are likely to attract profit‑taking and potential reversals.
The Golden Setup
Among the findings, one trade stands out as the highest‑conviction setup:
A long position at $3,415, with a stop loss at $3,405 and a take profit at $3,450.
This trade is backed by strong confluence: price pulling back into a well‑defined demand zone ($3,410–$3,415) that features order block support, Fibonacci retracement, VWAP alignment, EMA cluster support, and a rising channel boundary. The target sits just below the first significant resistance band ($3,445–$3,450), offering a favorable risk‑to‑reward ratio. The confidence level on this setup is rated at 8/10, given the multi‑method alignment and consistent sentiment from professional sources.
Summary Table
Category Levels / Details
Buy Zones $3,410–$3,415, $3,390–$3,395
Sell Zones $3,445–$3,450, $3,468–$3,470
Golden Setup Long @ $3,415 / SL $3,405 / TP $3,450 (Confidence: 8/10)
In conclusion, gold maintains a constructive technical outlook on the 4‑hour timeframe. The prevailing bullish structure, reinforced by classical and institutional methodologies, supports a continuation toward the $3,450–$3,468 region. The suggested Golden Setup provides a disciplined, high‑probability entry at a key inflection zone, consistent with both technical evidence and prevailing market sentiment.
