GOLD 14/6 - The downtrend is clearly formedGold prices have taken a dip and are currently trading at a daily low of $1,942.
This comes after the US dollar struggled earlier in the day, particularly with the US Consumer Price Index falling below market expectations.
This has caused some optimism in the market, with gold experiencing a bearish trend on the 4-hour chart.
The support levels are at 1,940 - 1,932 - 1,918, while the resistance levels are at 1,966 - 1,972 - 1,987.
Technical indicators are approaching oversold levels, and the 34 and 89 EMAs are currently moving around the $1955 level.
Xauusdsetup
XAUUSD: Entry BUY?The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its report on the United States Consumer Price Index. According to the report, the CPI increased by just 0.1% for the month, causing the annual inflation level to drop from 4.9% in April to 4.0%. The Core CPI, on the other hand, rose 0.4% for the month and was up 5.3% from a year ago, in line with consensus forecasts.
Despite the cooling off of the headline CPI data, the Core figures suggest that inflation may still be a persistent issue, which could impact the US Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates. The Fed fund rates futures continue to show a 60% probability of a July Fed rate hike, while the US inflation report cements a pause this week. The probability for a June Fed rate hike pause jumped to 95% on the data release, compared to about 75% before the release.
XAUUSD: Its trend changed
Today, my plan was to continue to long it at a low level, but when the data was released, it didn't rise much. I told everyone that if it doesn't break the 1966-1969 resistance soon, it will continue to fall. then we all saw it, it failed to break resistance, so we changed plans, a short trade is made.
Just imagine, if we hadn't changed our strategy in time, what would our account look like now? I hope that after today's trading experience, everyone can gain something and realize that the market is changing rapidly, and we should respond flexibly.
Now, the market is rebounding, its resistance is around 1952-1957, after today's decline, its 1D chart has returned to the bearish pattern again, if it can't get back above 1960, it will fall below 1900 in the last few days!
XAUUSD: Buy
Today we continue to do long gold at a lower position according to the plan we have formulated.
In the 1D chart, the resistance of MA20 has been broken, and the arrangement of K lines also shows signs of forming a small bottom, which is beneficial to bulls.
The 1h chart shows that the price has broken through the suppression of all moving averages, and MACD is also in a bullish trend, so we are long today.
XAUUSD: Predict CPIFundamental technical analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing an upward trend; however, it is important to note that it is still forming a downtrend which is considered a risky price zone. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 indicators have not shown any significant changes yet. The trend lines are narrowing, indicating a potential strong breakout. If you decide to enter the trade at this time, you must understand that it comes with high risks but also high profits.
Market before and after CPI:
CIBC has analyzed the US CPI report for May and provided their comments on it. They predict that the core CPI will continue to rise due to the strong labor market and increased demand for housing, which has driven up prices. However, there is a chance that the core CPI may slightly decrease due to slower rental growth. Additionally, used car prices are expected to fall, and ISM service price indexes have decreased in May. CIBC believes that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged in their policy meeting this week. However, if the core index increases by 0.5% in May, policymakers will be compelled to raise interest rates in June.
GOLD new week - Many important newsIn recent months, central banks have played a significant role in supporting the value of gold. Their interest in purchasing the precious metal has hit record levels, and this has been a major factor in keeping gold prices stable. Despite this, the US Federal Reserve remains the key player in the gold market, and many believe that the price of gold will rise once the current monetary tightening cycle comes to an end.
Looking at the H4 time frame, it's clear that gold is currently moving sideways within a range of 1938-1980. If the price falls below the support level of 1938, it's likely that it will continue to drop to around 1900 or even lower. On the other hand, if it breaks past the resistance level of 1980, the price of gold is expected to surge above $2,000.
XAUUSD: Small time frame developments!Fundamental technical analysis:
- EMA 34 & EMA 89: When the EMA 34 remains higher than the EMA 89, there is a positive trend being displayed.
- RSI: In the H1 time frame, the RSI had a breakout and rose above the averages. Clearly showing a slight uptrend.
- Resistance - Support (zone): create a large range and these zones react very strongly.
Basic overview:
At the beginning of the week, the price of gold dropped below $1,950 as investors reacted to the impressive May jobs report from the US. The report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls had risen by 339,000, surpassing the market expectation of 190,000 by a wide margin. However, in the second half of the day, the US Dollar came under selling pressure as the ISM Services PMI survey revealed a loss of momentum in service sector activity. The survey also showed a decline in input inflation and a drop in the sector's payrolls, prompting XAU/USD to regain traction and Gold to close the day in positive territory.
XAUUSD: Buy
In last Friday's trading, the strategy I gave was short selling, and at the same time I briefly explained today's trading, I believe all the friends in the channel know.
Today, gold rebounded after stepping back on the support of 1955, which is in line with our plan to be long gold. First of all, congratulations to friends who participated in long trading, they have already reaped some profits.
Now, in the gold 1h chart, MACD has formed a golden cross, which is favorable for bulls. Judging from the trend of the previous wave, this rise will break through the resistance near 1969, and the important resistance will appear near 1985.
So today's trading focus is on long trading.
trading signal:
buy:1958-1948
tp:1974-1983
GOLD - Bulls are working hardAccording to the H4 chart, the short-term outlook for the XAU/USD pair seems favorable, despite a slight loss in upward momentum.
Technical indicators have flattened out after crossing into positive territory, as the pair consolidates near daily highs.
Gold has also recovered above the 34 EMA and is trending upwards.
However, the $1,970 level has seen resistance from sellers, and immediate resistance must be surpassed for the pair to extend its rally to the next Fibonacci retracement at 38.2%, located at 1,985.65$.
Keep an eye out for a potential breakout above the 1970 price zone , which could trigger a new uptrend for gold. If using the Temporary Breakout strategy, wait for a close above the zone and set a stop loss at the nearest price stop.
Gold stays buoyant as Fed pause bets continuesGold and copper are currently buoyant as the dollar falls sharply on Fed pause bets. This presents a fantastic opportunity for you to invest in gold.
As you may know, gold has always been a safe haven for investors during economic uncertainty. With the current state of the economy, now is the perfect time to invest in gold. Not only is it a safe investment, but it also has the potential for significant returns.
So, what are you waiting for? Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to invest in gold. Take advantage of the market conditions and make a smart investment today.
Thank you for your time and consideration. I look forward to hearing from you soon.
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Gold Today - Falling momentum clearly establishedOn Wednesday, the US dollar experienced significant fluctuations, but ultimately ended the day with little change.
The main factor affecting gold prices was US Treasury yields, which supported the US dollar. Currently, gold prices are stabilizing after a recent decline, but if the market worsens, the US dollar may become a safe-haven investment, which could limit gold's rise.
Weak jobless claims in the US could also contribute to a continued decrease in the US dollar and a rise in gold prices.
If gold drops below the 1938 zone, it could trigger a strong sell-off towards the 1930-1920-1905 targets in the short term.
When trading based on this method, it's essential to place a stop loss after the nearest price resistance.
XAUUSD: Unemployment ClaimsTechnical analysis:
A downtrend is currently taking shape, indicated by the 34 EMA being positioned below the 89 EMA. The price of gold has been moving sideways for some time now, but with a need for liquidity, it is likely to continue trading in a narrow range of 40-48 before breaking out of this pattern. The RSI indicator confirms the downtrend, but its impact is limited in this scenario. It's worth noting that a solid support area lies at 1940.
Fundamental Overview:
The US economy is being closely monitored for signs of decline that could lead to a significant drop in the value of the US dollar. However, it appears that this event may still be some time away. Currently, the US dollar is showing strength and there are indications that it may continue to rise. This is due to inflation persisting and even accelerating despite attempts by the Fed to control it with interest rate adjustments. The market may be taken aback by this development.
There are predictions that gold will continue to decrease significantly due to the current economic recovery and tension caused by war.
Gold ETFs Enjoy Further Net Inflows In May - It's Time to InvestAs the world is facing a global pandemic, securing our future financially is essential. And what better way to do that than by investing in gold ETFs?
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GoldMondayLow - Up or Down
• Gold experienced a bounce upwards on June 5th, 2023 , reaching a low of 1938.00 .
• Today, it dropped from 1968.00 to 1941.00 , indicating a downward movement.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index) Analysis:
• RSI 4 on the M15 timeframe is in great oversold territory .
• Divergences are being observed, suggesting a potential uptrend .
• The last significant support level was at 1956.00 , established yesterday .
• Moving Average (SMA 21):
• Applying the SMA 21 (a 21-period Simple Moving Average) could provide further insights into the trend.
• The average closing price over the past 21 periods, smoothing out short-term fluctuations.
• By analyzing the SMA 21, we can identify the overall direction and potential support or resistance levels.
Considering the oversold condition and divergences on the RSI still indicate a potential reversal on 1938.00 bounce back in the near future. May one also monitor the SMA 21 for additional confirmation. A bullish crossover and a price bounce off up the SMA 21 could reinforce the expectation of an uptrend. ☆ As always, it's essential to conduct thorough analysis, consider other market factors, and use appropriate risk management strategies.
XAUUSD Gold Next Possible MovePair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Falling Wedge as an Correction in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Upper Trend Line
Impulse Correction
Divergence - RSI
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Wave and " AB " Corrective Wave
S / R Level