A rebound is a good opportunity to short goldGold rebounds from 3100, but is the bullish momentum truly revived?
I don’t see it that way. Yesterday’s retracement to 3100 has already weakened the strong bullish structure to some extent, with 3150 likely acting as a key resistance level. I believe the current rebound is merely a technical retest of the 3150 zone, reinforcing it as a potential cycle high and paving the way for a double-top formation, which could provide a bearish technical setup for further downside.
Following the initial 3100 test, a second retest of this support level is likely. If gold fails to hold 3100 on the second attempt, a break lower towards 3095-3085 would become increasingly probable.
I will continue to scale into short positions within the 3132-3142 zone, with an initial target of 3120-3110. If gold approaches 3100, I will closely monitor the price action to assess the likelihood of a further breakdown.
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Xauusdshort
How to spot the right timing?XAUUSD has reached 3148.9 and is currently testing the upper resistance levels. Technical analysis indicates that the 3150 - 3170 range serves as a resistance zone. Given the robust bullish sentiment surrounding XAUUSD recently and the typically high trading volume and ample liquidity during the US trading session.
The 3100 level is a strong support area. Right above this support area,buying opportunities present themselves. At price points in this range, a significant amount of buy orders tend to flood the market, offering a buffer against further price decline.
It’s crucial to note that the XAUUSD market is characterized by high volatility. Thus, investors should avoid chasing rallies or engaging in short - selling at high levels. Chasing rallies exposes investors to substantial losses during short - term price retracements. Similarly, short - selling at high levels risks missing out on further upside potential. Stay vigilant to market dynamics, set stop - loss and take - profit levels rationally, and safeguard against potential risks.
💎💎💎 XAUUSD 💎💎💎
🎁 Buy@3100 - 3105
🎁 TP 3120 3130 3140
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XAUUSD buy Gold is easing from its fresh record high near $3,150 but remains well supported above the $3,100 mark. A generalised pullback in US yields is underpinning the yellow metal, as traders stay on the sidelines awaiting clarity on upcoming US tariff announcements
XAUUSD buy 3115
Support 3131
Support 3162
Gold Price Analysis April 1D1 candle is still showing a remarkable increase of Gold. Signaling that the uptrend will continue for another half.
The wave in the h4 frame is still continuing a strong uptrend and no correction wave has appeared.
H1 is trading in the border zone of 3126 and 3142. The trading plan for GOLD to close below 3032 shows a clear downtrend to 3106. On the contrary, if the candle closes above, wait for the 3142 zone to confirm that it does not break the price, then SELL to 3106. 3163-3165 is the Target for the BUY signal to break the ATH when the candle confirms above 3143
XAUUSD Today's strategyIn view of the fact that a large number of news items with a significant influence on the market trend are about to be released today, before the news breaks, we can conduct transactions within the established price range by adopting the strategy of selling high and buying low. In order to effectively control risks and seize potential profit opportunities at the same time, it is advisable that you keep your position within 20%.
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Gold Under Pressure In Head And Shoulders PatternGold's 1-hour moving average has gradually begun to show signs of turning, and gold's 1-hour moving average is also in the form of a head and shoulders. Even if it pulls back and forth again, gold will continue to fluctuate in a wide range. There are more data in the second half of this week, and there is news about important events, so gold still needs to wait for news or data to take gold out of a new direction.
Trading ideas: short gold around 3130, sl: 3140, tp: 3115
The above is purely a personal opinion sharing. Investment involves risks and you are responsible for your profits and losses.
Beware of gold tariff changes! Intraday Gold Trading Buckle UpGold news: In the early Asian session on Wednesday (April 2), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3114.90/ounce. Gold prices rose and fell on Tuesday. Spot gold rose to around the 3150 mark earlier, setting a new record high of $3148.85/ounce, but then fell back due to profit-taking, closing at $3114.03/ounce, down about 0.3%. US President Trump plans to announce comprehensive tariffs on countries with trade imbalances with the United States on April 2, which has spawned a large number of safe-haven buying, helping gold prices to continue to rise, but near the last moment, some bulls took profits in advance. Gold has always been seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties. On Monday, gold closed with its strongest quarterly performance since 1986 and broke through $3,100 per ounce, becoming one of the most significant gains in the history of precious metals.
Technical analysis of gold: Gold 4-hour chart retreated to the middle track and paused for a while. Today, the battle between the high point 3148 and the 4-hour middle track will be fought. Losing the middle track will further increase the adjustment space. On the contrary, holding the middle track to recover the high point will continue the slow rise. The market outlook will continue to cooperate with the slow rise method of one step back and one turn back. That is, the repeated high-exploration and fall method. From the 1-hour chart of gold, the rising volume at the end of the wave-shaped tail is usually not sustainable, accompanied by the one-step back and one-step wash-out method. After yesterday's retreat, today's early trading rose quickly, accompanied by a big negative line in the hourly chart to retrace and correct, and stepped back to the local high of 3150. The fluctuation base is large and the adjustment space can be large or small. It is not easy to chase high at the current position. Although shorting is against the trend, the implementation of overbought tariffs on the technical level will also be realized, and the room for adjustment cannot be underestimated. We should use ultra-short-term combined with medium and long-term short-term to respond to short-term adjustments. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends shorting mainly on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3138-3140, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3100-3083. Friends, you must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist the order operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday trading. Welcome to experience and exchange real-time market conditions. 🌐Follow real-time orders.
Gold operation strategy reference: Short order strategy: Strategy 1: Short stop loss of 6 points near 3136-3138 when gold rebounds, target around 3115-3100, break the position and look at 3085 line;
Long order strategy: Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back around 3105-3095, stop loss 6 points, target around 3120-3110, and look at the 3130 line if the position is broken;
Trading discipline: 1. Don’t follow the trend blindly: Don’t be swayed by market sentiment and other people’s opinions, and operate according to your own operation plan. The market information is complicated and complex, and blindly following the trend can easily lead to the dilemma of chasing ups and downs.
2. In gold trading, we will continue to pay attention to news and technical changes, notify you in time if there are any changes, strictly implement trading strategies and trading disciplines, move forward steadily in the volatile market, and achieve stable asset appreciation.
3100 Danger? Has a short trend emerged after gold’s sharp fall?If you persist in doing something for three days, it is just a whim! If you persist in doing it for three months, it is just a start! If you persist in doing it for 10 years, it can be considered a career! Whether in life or trading, if you want to succeed, it is like sailing against the current. If you don’t advance, you will retreat. Only by working hard, persisting, moving forward bravely, and overcoming obstacles can you reap your own "success"! A new day begins, and every step of the strategy is the beginning of a battle. Execute the operation, if you don’t move, you will be fine, but if you move, you will be thunderous! 1-5 current price transactions per day make the operation easier!
Gold technical analysis: After the gold surged, it appeared under pressure. The price reached 3149 and then retreated. The US market continued to decline after the shock. Don’t do more if it falls below 3120 in the evening, and be alert to the possibility of retreating to 3100. The short-term means that the bulls have temporarily come to an end and began to retreat and adjust the trend.
In addition to Trump’s announcement of tariffs this week, there will also be non-agricultural data, so this week is destined to be extraordinary. This is also the risk that has been repeatedly reminded. Don't be blindly overwhelmed by bulls. You need to respect the market at all times. After falling below 3120, there is room for a retracement, but whether the overall trend has turned is still uncertain. This week is very critical. There are important fundamental news. It is necessary to confirm whether it will change the fundamentals. Only when there is a change will the trend turn. Pay attention to the 3120 first-line resistance on the top of the 4-hour chart, and pay attention to the 3100 support on the bottom in the short term. It is recommended to operate in the range. Gold operation suggestion: short selling near 3115-3119, stop loss 3130, target 3105-3100
Trading discipline: 1. Don't blindly follow the trend: Don't be swayed by market sentiment and other people's opinions, operate according to your own operation plan, market information is complicated, and blindly following the trend is easy to fall into the dilemma of chasing ups and downs.
2. In gold trading, we will continue to pay attention to news and technical changes, inform you in time if there are changes, strictly implement trading strategies and trading disciplines, move forward steadily in the volatile market, and achieve stable asset appreciation.
#XAUSUD: Small Time Bearish Correction With Three Take Profit! After reaching a record high of $3,150, the XAUUSD currency pair has experienced a decline. Analysis conducted over the past few hours has led us to anticipate that the price may experience minor corrections within a short time frame.
Upon analysing the data and price movements, we have identified three distinct zones or targets that could serve as potential price levels for the XAUUSD pair.
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Golden Horizons on the PrecipiceGold on the Brink of a Downturn: A Shift in Market Sentiment
Gold, once a shining symbol of financial security and prosperity, now finds itself on the cusp of a significant bearish turn. The precious metal, which has long been a safe haven for investors during times of economic uncertainty, is entering a new phase that could see its value dwindle in the face of shifting global financial conditions.
The Russian central bank, historically one of the major players in the gold market, is currently at the forefront of this market retreat. By liquidating a significant portion of its gold reserves, Russia is not just participating in the market shift, but may be sending a signal to other nations and financial institutions. Their decision to sell is not an isolated move; it could well be the beginning of a broader trend.
As the Russian central bank offloads its holdings, it's highly probable that other central banks, which have long viewed gold as an essential asset for economic stability, may soon follow suit. These institutions, often holding vast quantities of the precious metal, could begin liquidating their reserves in an effort to take advantage of the currently elevated prices. The global economic landscape is constantly in flux, and with many countries facing mounting fiscal pressures, the temptation to cash in on gold's recent price surge could become too great to resist.
Hedge funds and private investors, always looking for opportunities to capitalize on price movements, may also jump on the bandwagon. They have the flexibility and agility to react swiftly to market shifts, and with a growing consensus that gold may have reached its peak, it would not be surprising if they decide to sell off their positions in the metal. With such a large portion of the market potentially pulling away from gold, the selling pressure could intensify, leading to a sharp drop in prices.
If this trend gains momentum, we could witness a rapid and dramatic decline in gold’s value. The metal, which has been the go-to asset for many investors during times of economic uncertainty, could soon lose its appeal as a safe haven. The factors driving this potential downturn are multifaceted, ranging from shifting monetary policies and global inflationary pressures to geopolitical tensions and central bank strategies.
The impact of this market shift could be far-reaching. Not only would it affect the price of gold, but it could also send shockwaves through the broader commodities and financial markets. If the sell-off gathers pace, it could have a cascading effect, causing investors to rethink their positions in other assets traditionally viewed as safe havens, such as silver or even government bonds.
The question on many investors’ minds is whether this bearish trend is a temporary correction or the beginning of a longer-term downturn. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the dynamics of the gold market are shifting, and the once steady climb of the metal may now be facing a downward spiral.
For those who are closely following the market, it is essential to stay updated on the latest developments. A deeper analysis of the factors driving this potential gold sell-off and the broader market implications can offer valuable insights into the direction of this volatile asset.
As we continue to monitor the situation, I encourage you to stay informed and consider how these developments could impact your own investments. While gold may still hold value in the eyes of many, its future trajectory is now uncertain, and the risk of significant price fluctuations looms large.
Thank you for your attention, and I wish you the best of luck navigating these turbulent financial waters!
Gold (XAU/USD) Breaks Ascending Channel – Bearish Move Ahead?📉 Market Structure:
Gold was moving in an ascending channel, but price has now broken below the support trendline.
This suggests a possible trend reversal or correction.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance : $3,125 - $3,170
Support: $3,054 - $3,035
Target: $3,000 - $2,995
📊 Trade Idea:
A pullback to support-turned-resistance could give a short entry.
Bearish target: $3,000 if rejection holds.
Invalidation: If price reclaims $3,125.
🔍 Watch for:
Price reaction at the former channel support.
Possible retest before further drop.
Let me know if you need any modifications! 🚀
XAUUSD Today's analysisOn Thursday (April 3rd), as Asian markets opened for trading, Trump’s bombshell announcement of a slew of tariff measures sent shockwaves through the market. In an instant, a wave of risk - aversion swept across, propelling the spot gold price to a staggering $3,167.60 per ounce. This not only marked a new all - time high but also set a new benchmark in the gold market’s history.
However, the market’s exuberance was short - lived. Fearing potential uncertainties in the aftermath of these policy changes, a significant number of profit - oriented investors decided to cash in on their gains. Their aggressive selling pressure caused the gold price to reverse course sharply. Before long, the price turned negative for the day, slumping to a low of $3,054.19 per ounce.
As the trading day wore on, investors adopted a wait - and - see approach. The growing consensus was that US tariff policies would likely throw the global economy into disarray. In such a climate of uncertainty, gold’s traditional role as a safe - haven asset reasserted itself. Buoyed by this renewed interest, bargain - hunting buyers flocked back into the market, driving the price back up to $3,125 per ounce.
Macroeconomic data and geopolitical dynamics will continue to influence the direction of the gold market. Key data such as the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll employment figures that the US Department of Labor is about to release are highly likely to affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, which in turn will impact the gold market. If the data indicates a weakening of the US job market, the Federal Reserve may consider easing its monetary policy. This will undermine the US dollar and enhance the attractiveness of gold to investors.
At the same time, there are still uncertainties in the global trade situation. Countermeasures taken by other countries against the US tariff policies may further intensify trade frictions and increase the uncertainty of the global economy. In such an environment, as a safe-haven asset, gold is expected to attract more capital inflows.
From the perspective of technical analysis and the price trend of gold, the price level of $3,100 per ounce has become an important support and resistance level. If the gold price can firmly stay above this level, it may attract more bulls to enter the market, driving the price towards higher targets. Conversely, if the price breaks below this level, the bears may take the initiative, triggering a new round of selling. In addition, the performance of gold mining stocks is also worthy of attention. They not only reflect the short-term fluctuations in the gold market but are also affected by the operational conditions of mining companies themselves and the impact of geopolitics on mining production, forming a linkage effect with the gold price.
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Data will be Bearish for GOLDAffected by tariffs and inflation news, gold fluctuated sharply before the market closed. The market was in a situation of double kills for both long and short positions, and the sentiment was still fermenting. At present, the bulls also took this opportunity to successfully break through the resistance, and the price returned to above 3140 again. From the perspective of the pattern, there is still room for growth in the short term.
Before the US market, you can look for trading opportunities in the 3158-3123 range. The unemployment benefit data will be released during the US market, and the data is expected to be bearish for gold. Therefore, within 30 minutes before the data is released, if you hold a long order, please be cautious. At that time, I will also send you the latest trading plan based on the market situation.
If you are currently in trouble and need help, you can leave me a message.
The battle for the 3200 mark is imminentThe United States has officially launched a tax increase policy on major global trading partners. The wide range of goods involved and the high tax increase are rare in history. The essence of the tax increase is to require countries to have the same tax rate on US goods as the US export tax rate to them. For example, if Indian motorcycles face a 2.4% tax in the United States, and American motorcycles are taxed 100% in India, the United States will reversely tax Indian motorcycles at 100%. This "tit-for-tat" mechanism directly leads to a surge in the price of imported goods, and companies are forced to restructure their supply chains. Next, once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, gold is bound to reach a new level. Cutting interest rates is the general trend. When the economy is down, only by cutting interest rates can economic development be stimulated, and raising interest rates will only push the economy to the brink of collapse. The US economy is already in collapse, not on the edge!
After the tariff news, gold quickly retreated to 3105 and then soared, reaching a high of 3168. Gold, hold the position of 3100 US dollars, which is the key to determine the long and short positions. The rising market is not about staring at the high point speculation, but the gains and losses of the key support area. As long as the key support is not broken, the rising trend will not see the top.
Gold operation suggestion: long around 3120-3110
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview
Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow.
The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels.
📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown
1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed:
Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend.
Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength.
Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure
🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower.
🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold.
🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal.
🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy
3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan
Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it:
📉 Sell Entry:
The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level.
📍 Stop Loss (SL):
A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias.
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily.
TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio.
4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations
Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward.
Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2.
Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control.
📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control.
🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues.
📊 Final Thought:
This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
The long-short sweep may still explodeThe tariffs were also successfully implemented. In response, the market bulls and bears also responded strongly. After all, the 3105-3142 area rose and fell in seconds, which was a terrifying market. Of course, to be honest, this wave of turbulence was mostly caused by institutions. After all, the market smashing was also extremely strong. However, I don’t agree with the impact of the tariffs implemented last night. First of all, looking back at the market situation, Trump said that tariffs would be imposed on many countries, which actually meant a 20% retaliatory tariff on the European Union. As for some other countries, only a 10% general levy was implemented, which relatively resulted in an unequal tariff situation. Of course, Trump also reiterated that Canada and Mexico still have tariff exemptions in a limited range of goods. So what impact will this situation have on the bulls and bears of gold? To be honest, personally, I have undoubtedly overestimated the announcement of this tariff. In other words, the implementation of this tariff is a bit insufficient in my eyes. After all, I expected that Trump would make major changes in his previous speech. As a result, it is a significant reduction compared to his previous years in office. This has also limited the outbreak of risk aversion. Of course, trade risks definitely exist, but through the matter of adding Mexico, this is completely negotiable. For this tariff event, I don’t think there is a big risk stimulus. Of course, the key is to see whether the market buys it. If the market thinks it will stimulate long-term risk aversion, then it will inevitably be pushed up by buying. However, the intensity of yesterday’s tariffs was not strong in my opinion. This may also limit the outbreak of longs to a certain extent. After all, the market’s expectations for it were too strong in the early stage, which also led to the early rise of longs, which also included the digestion of news. For this, you still need to be cautious.
Then looking back at the current market, the tariffs have been implemented, and in a blink of an eye, we will also welcome the announcement of non-agricultural data. As far as the current market is concerned, the various US economic data have also improved relatively. After all, the substantial growth of ADP has undoubtedly dispelled the rumors of economic downturn. After all, the warming of the labor market undoubtedly reflects the warming of the US economy. Under the influence of tariffs, it has indeed boosted the US economy. Of course, the impact of the data is not just that. The current remarks about the slowdown in inflation are self-defeating. Due to the implementation of tariffs, inflation is likely to rise further. This directly hits the Fed's expectations of a rate cut, and the warming of the labor market has further limited the possibility of the Fed implementing a rate cut. In this regard, no matter what the final result of the market outlook is, based on the current situation, I personally think that it is really difficult for the Fed to implement a rate cut this year, which has also led to a reduction in the momentum of gold bulls. Moreover, if this situation continues, the Fed does not rule out the possibility of being forced to implement a rate hike. Although Trump is also calling on the Fed to cut interest rates, the fact is that it cannot be implemented at present, unless the US talks with other countries again during this period to discuss a reduction, as it did with Canada and Mexico. Otherwise, as time goes by, as the tariff issue intensifies, inflation will be restricted, thus affecting the implementation of the Fed's policy. At this time, you can pay more attention to the market dynamics.
So for today, although gold is currently stimulated to rise, I don't quite agree with the emergence of new highs for gold bulls. To put it bluntly, for now, even if a new high appears, gold breaks through 3160, which is more of a possibility of inducing more. I am not saying that I am blindly bearish, but you have actually seen that gold is blocked at a high level, and the momentum of falling back is also extremely strong, especially gold started three consecutive positives last Friday, and as of Tuesday this week, it stopped falling near the highest point of 3149. The bull outbreak is already facing exhaustion. Even if the bulls rise again today, where can they rise, to 3200? Then what? You should know that it is cold at the top. Unless there is absolute bullish momentum to support gold to continue to rise, there will be a peak at any time. The short space is still large, just waiting for an opportunity. In particular, the sharp increase in ADP has led to the market betting on the negative non-agricultural data. Once gold is blocked from rising, it will inevitably collapse in an instant. Especially when this kind of news stimulates gold to rise, retail investors in the market will not consider its fundamentals. They will only think that interest rate cuts are absolutely good for bulls and the implementation of tariffs is absolutely good for bulls, which will lead to buying. This is also a chance for institutions to snipe bulls. For this, for today and tomorrow, even if gold breaks a new high, you should not blindly follow the trend. Remember to guard against the possibility of a resurgence of shorts. In this regard, I personally prefer the possibility of shorts looking back at the possibility of breaking 3100 and falling to 3080-3050. You can be cautious about this.
As for today's opening, gold opened high at 3141, and encountered a flash crash at 3128 at the opening, and then rebounded to 3139 and then flash crashed to 3123. This performance can be said to be extremely strong. In this case, I certainly cannot notify the operation. After all, the fluctuation is too fast. With a quote every second, even if you give an order, you may not be able to enter the market in time. For this, you still need to wait for the market to calm down. As for today's market, the fluctuation may be relatively strong. You can wait and see and be cautious. As for the specific operation details, I will give them in real time. Remember to strictly follow my requirements to control the position and stop loss.
XAUUSD The position of "BUY"The 3100 level is a strong support area. Right above this support area,buying opportunities present themselves. At price points in this range, a significant amount of buy orders tend to flood the market, offering a buffer against further price decline.
It’s crucial to note that the XAUUSD market is characterized by high volatility. Thus, investors should avoid chasing rallies or engaging in short - selling at high levels. Chasing rallies exposes investors to substantial losses during short - term price retracements. Similarly, short - selling at high levels risks missing out on further upside potential. Stay vigilant to market dynamics, set stop - loss and take - profit levels rationally, and safeguard against potential risks.
💎💎💎 XAUUSD 💎💎💎
🎁 Buy@3100 - 3105
🎁 TP 3120 3130 3140
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XAUUSD Head & Shoulders Breakdown – Bearish Target Ahead?This chart represents a detailed technical analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe with a structured trade setup based on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern. Below is an in-depth explanation of the chart components, price action, and trade strategy.
1️⃣ Key Chart Patterns and Analysis
A. Head and Shoulders Pattern (Bearish Reversal)
This is a well-known bearish reversal pattern that signals a potential trend change from bullish to bearish. It consists of three peaks:
Left Shoulder: A rise followed by a temporary pullback.
Head: The highest peak in the pattern, showing strong buying pressure before reversal.
Right Shoulder: A smaller rise compared to the head, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
B. Neckline (Support Level) and Breakdown Confirmation
The neckline (horizontal support level) is drawn across the lowest points between the shoulders.
A break below the neckline confirms the reversal, triggering a bearish move.
The chart suggests price is at the neckline zone, preparing for a breakdown.
2️⃣ Trendline and Support/Resistance Analysis
A. Uptrend Trendline Break
The price was following a strong ascending trendline (dotted black line).
A trendline breakout has occurred, indicating potential trend reversal.
This supports the bearish bias further.
B. Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance Level: Marked at the top of the Head region, which aligns with previous price rejection zones.
Support Levels:
First support (TP1 - 3,053.269): This is the first potential take profit level.
Second support (TP2 - 3,030.556): The next target if price continues downward.
3️⃣ Trade Setup & Risk Management
A. Entry Point (Short Position)
Sell (Short) after the neckline breakout, ensuring bearish momentum is confirmed.
B. Take Profit (TP) Targets
TP1: 3,053.269 (Initial support target).
TP2: 3,030.556 (Stronger support zone, deeper profit target).
C. Stop Loss Placement
Stop Loss: 3,150.726 (Above the resistance zone).
This is a logical stop-loss placement, allowing price fluctuations without prematurely stopping the trade.
4️⃣ Overall Market Sentiment & Trade Bias
Bearish Bias: Due to the formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern, trendline breakout, and weakening bullish momentum.
Confirmation Needed: A strong bearish close below the neckline increases probability of downward continuation.
5️⃣ Final Thought – A High-Probability Trade Setup
If neckline breaks, the trade is valid with potential for a 3%+ downside move.
If price holds above the neckline, the pattern may fail, leading to reconsidering trade execution.
This structured risk-managed approach ensures a strategic entry, controlled risk, and maximized profit potential. 📉🔥 Let me know if you need further refinements! 🚀
XAUUSD:Short at highs primarily, long on pullbacks secondarilyThe 4-hour chart shows that the short-term moving averages of gold are converging, and the lower shadows of the K-lines appear frequently. The downward momentum is weakening, which may indicate a technical correction after a period of sideways consolidation, and there is a possibility of a second upward pull.
The hourly chart shows that the price range is narrowing, and the technical pattern is gradually being adjusted into place. Currently, the upper resistance levels are between 3137 and 3142, and the lower support levels are between 3111 and 3107.
In terms of trading operations, I suggests mainly taking short positions near the end of the trading session, with going long on the pullback as a secondary strategy.
XAUUSD Trading Strategy:
sell@3130-3135
TP:3120-3110
buy@3110-3115
TP:3125-3130
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Gold Market and the Impact of Trump’s Tariff PolicyAs global economic uncertainty intensifies and gold prices hit record highs, investors are seeking safe-haven assets. After several rounds of market turmoil, investors have recovered somewhat in Asian markets this week.
In the coming week, the focus will be on the reciprocal tariff plan that Trump will announce on April 2. If Trump decides to take tough measures and implement high tariffs across the board, it may have a big impact on the market. However, if there is some relaxation of tariff policies, such as tax exemptions for specific countries, then the market may have a chance to rebound.
Trump was proud of Wall Street's record highs during his first term, but now seems to be less concerned about the stock market and more focused on the adjustment of overall economic policies. I think this may be the time to make structural changes to the US economy, although these adjustments may bring challenges in the short term, but the hope is that the economy will recover before the mid-term elections next year.
In addition, Asian stock markets have also been affected by volatility, especially the automotive industries in Japan and South Korea are under pressure. The automotive manufacturing industries in these countries face the challenge of change due to the upcoming 25% tariffs. Investors are full of doubts about Trump's tariff policy, and market sentiment is cautious, and all parties are waiting for the policy announcement on April 2.
In conclusion, although the market has rebounded in the short term, future trends still need to focus on Trump’s tariff decisions and their potential impact on the global economy.
Has gold entered a downward channel?Gold ended its continuous rise. The daily chart was blocked and fell back, falling to 3100. Technically, the gold price is still above 3078/3095 of MA7 and 5-day moving average. At the same time, MA10/7-day moving average still remains open upward, and the price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Band.
The short-term four-hour moving average narrowed, and the price was running near the MA10-day moving average at 3123. The price retreated to the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3101/3104. The RSI indicator turned downward after touching the overbought value above 80 yesterday. The hourly moving average is glued together, and the price returns to the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band. Gold is expected to continue to expand its operating range during the day. It is recommended to buy at a low level after the correction and be cautious in chasing the rise. Consider selling after the key resistance level or historical high.
Once Trump's tariff policy is implemented, pay attention to the high and low prices in the gold and silver market, which may usher in a substantial downward adjustment. On the contrary, if Trump continues to announce new tariff policies on the basis of the original tariff policy, gold needs to pay attention to triggering risk aversion and causing a sharp rise or a record high again.
Gold surged higher in the US market yesterday and is stagnant. Bulls are under short-term pressure and may enter an adjustment cycle. In the short-term, gold is expected to fall and adjust! Yesterday, gold rose first and then fell, rising to 3149 and then falling. The European market fluctuated narrowly. From the technical indicators, the 2-hour moving average has formed a dead cross, MACD dead cross and large volume, and the Bollinger band closed. The US market continued to decline after the shock, and currently fell below the 3120 intraday watershed. In the short term, it means that the bulls have temporarily come to an end and started to retrace and adjust.
After yesterday's retracement, today's Asian market quickly rose to 3135.7. With the increase in volume on the hourly chart, it corrected the decline with 3150 as the high point. The fluctuation range was large and the adjustment speed was fast. The current position is too risky to chase the rise. Although shorting is against the trend, the implementation of technically overbought tariffs will also be realized, and there will be more room for profit-taking and downward adjustments. Buying and selling opportunities coexist.
Key points:
First support: 3115, second support: 3102, third support: 3093
First resistance: 3138, second resistance: 3150, third resistance: 3200
Operation ideas:
Buy; 3110-3113, SL: 3102, TP: 3140-3150;
Sell; 3143-3145, stop SL: 3154, TP: 3120-3110;
Gold short 2.0Here we have the chart of my last 2 gold trades.
First trade was took at the top of the first down trend with an entry of 3053, here I was anticipating a move to the 2950 area, at least. It was a profitable trade, I closed half of the position for a 400 pip gain, with my SL then moved to 200 pips in profit - which was then hit on the break of the trend.
Following that price action we hit a massive 3 bar surge on the daily, massive move, massive momentum and unfortunately I was not in it! However this morning we seen more crazy move before the London open and I entered another short at 3145 when the STF was showing weakness, this is nicely in profit approaching 400 pips as I write this, SL at entry.
On the close of this latest hourly we see we have broke below the major trend, and next I will be looking for a re test of the trend line/area of consolidation where I will add to my position with the overall retracement target remaining a massive 2950 - will i hold it until then? Doubtful!