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Gold’s Next Big Move: Rally to $3K or a Sharp Pullback?The big question on everyone’s mind is whether FOREXCOM:XAUUSD will reach $3,000 in 2025. In my opinion, it probably will. Looking at the weekly chart, gold has been trading in a well-defined ascending channel for exactly a year. Each time the price dips near the trendline support, buyers step in, keeping the uptrend intact. The last time this happened was at the start of the year, and since then, gold has climbed more than 2800 pips from its low to its Friday's ATH. With this in mind, we can reasonably expect Gold to maintain its bullish trajectory— an assumption supported not only by technical analysis but also by fundamental factors. ________________________________________ 📊 Shorter Time Frame: Signs of Exhaustion? Although the long-term trend remains bullish, trends are not linear—they consist of ups and downs. If we refine our analysis to a shorter time frame, the situation looks a bit different. • The 4-hour chart still reflects a strong uptrend that began earlier this year. • However, last week, signs of exhaustion emerged: - Tuesday’s all-time high of $2,880 was followed by a normal pullback to the $2,840 zone (which I highlighted in last week’s analysis). - On Friday, a new ATH near $2,890 was reached, but the market saw a sharp reversal after the initial NFP-driven rally, with further weakness into the closing hours. ________________________________________ 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • Support Levels: - $2,840–$2,835 (previous support zone) - $2,800 (psychological level) - $2,775–$2,760 (deeper retracement area) • Resistance Levels: - $2,890 (recent ATH) - $2,900 (psychological barrier) - $2,980–$3,000 (major upside target) ________________________________________ 🎯 Potential Trade Setups: ✅ Bullish Scenario: • If Gold holds above $2,840 and rebounds, a breakout above $2,880–$2,890 could drive prices towards $2,900+, with the final target at $3,000. 🚨 Bearish Scenario: • If gold fails to hold $2,840, a deeper pullback to $2,800–$2,775 is likely. • A weekly close below $2,800 could trigger an extended correction toward $2,760. ________________________________________ 📉 My Strategy for Next Week: While the long-term uptrend remains intact, I anticipate a short-term correction. • I will be looking to sell rallies, targeting a pullback toward $2,800 or slightly below. • If Gold tests key support and shows strength, I’ll switch to a buy-the-dip approach for the next leg higher. ⚠️ Note: This is a high-risk strategy, as we are still in a strong bull market. Proper risk management is essential. Regards! Mihai Iacob
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
10
here what is the possible scenario for Xauusd"XAUUSD (Gold) is presenting a strong bullish setup driven by multiple factors. Here’s why it’s a prime time to consider buying: Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are driving investors toward gold as a reliable store of value. Weakening USD: The US Dollar is showing signs of weakness, which typically boosts gold prices as it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. Inflation Hedge: With rising inflation concerns, gold is attracting attention as a hedge against currency devaluation. Technical Breakout: XAUUSD has broken key resistance levels, confirming a strong upward trend with potential for further gains. Central Bank Buying: Increased gold purchases by central banks worldwide are supporting long-term price appreciation. Don’t miss this opportunity to capitalize on gold’s upward momentum. Always manage risk and set appropriate stop-loss levels. 🚀📈" Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research before trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by H_R09
Downward pressure on XAUUSD concerning geopolitical developmentReports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon have emerged. If confirmed, this could reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price . On February 8, 2025, Lebanon formed a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, ending a prolonged political deadlock. The new administration aims to implement reforms to address Lebanon's economic crisis and to ensure the reconstruction of areas damaged during the recent conflict with Israel. The ceasefire agreement with Israel, initially set to expire, has been extended to February 18, 2025. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Shriyans_Singh
Gold Under Pressure: Potential Bearish Reversal from Resistance 🚨 XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Setup at Key Fibonacci Levels 🚀📉 Gold (XAUUSD) is approaching a critical resistance zone between the 1.272 (2846.09) and 1.618 (2866.24) Fibonacci extension levels, where price often shows signs of exhaustion. After an extended bullish rally, momentum is slowing down ⚡—hinting at a possible reversal. 📊 Technical Breakdown: • 🔑 Fibonacci Confluence: Price is reacting strongly around 1.272 and heading towards 1.618—classic reversal zones for trend exhaustion. • ❌ Rejection Signals: Multiple wick rejections suggest strong selling pressure from institutional levels. • 📉 Trendline Support Target: A rising trendline around 2790.57 could act as the next bearish target if momentum shifts. • 🎯 Risk-Reward Edge: Stop loss secured above 2867 to avoid fakeouts, targeting a high-probability move towards trendline support. 💼 Trade Setup: • 🔻 Sell Entry: 2840–2850 • 🛡️ Stop Loss: 2867 (above resistance) • 🎯 Take Profit: 2790 (trendline support) 📈 Market Outlook: If price fails to break above the resistance zone, expect a bearish correction towards the trendline. A strong breakout above 2867 would invalidate this setup, signaling continued bullish strength. 🤔 What’s your outlook on XAUUSD? Drop your analysis below! 👇🔥
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AahmedD_98
Gold Market Update: Bullish Momentum ResumesYesterday, gold experienced a pullback, dropping to an intraday low of around 2835. However, the price quickly rebounded, and overnight, bulls regained control, pushing it back above 2860—a key confluence resistance level. This move suggests that the correction may be over. Looking ahead, the upcoming NFP data could drive further momentum, potentially leading to a new all-time high by the end of the week. From a broader perspective, the bullish outlook remains intact as long as yesterday’s low holds. A more significant correction would only come into play if we see a weekly close below this level.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
3
Gold's Uptrend Nearing Key Reversal Zone—Time to Sell?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is creating a new All-Time High(ATH) during these few days; finally, how far can gold continue this upward trend? What do you think? Educational Note : From the point of view of Technical Analysis , when the asset is forming an All-Time High(ATH) and the previous history of the price is not around the price, the analysis becomes a little difficult, but we must be able to make the best use of the technical analysis tool. ---------------------------------------------------- Gold is entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Also, Gold is facing a Series of Resistance lines that can stop its increase . From the point of view of Classical Technical Analysis , it seems that Gold is in the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern formation. Do you agree!? Educational Note : An Ascending Broadening Wedge is a bearish technical pattern characterized by higher highs and higher lows that expand over time. It signals increasing volatility and weakening bullish momentum, often leading to a breakdown below support. Traders watch for a confirmed breakdown as a short-selling opportunity. According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks. I expect Gold to start falling after entering the PRZ and at least to the lower line of the wedge pattern and Support zone($2,800-$2,787) . Note: If Gold breaks the Resistance lines and goes above $2,873, we should expect Gold to increase further. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
17
Gold before NFP: A general outlookYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD pulled back to an intraday low of 2835, but buyers quickly stepped in, driving the price back above 2860—a key confluence resistance level. This strong rebound suggests that the correction may be over, with bulls regaining control. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Support: 2835 (recent low), 2800 (psychological level), 2785 (next key demand zone) Resistance: 2880 (recent high), 2900 (round number), 2925 (potential breakout target) 📈 What’s Next? With NFP data on the horizon, volatility is expected. The market's reaction will depend on how the data impacts rate cut expectations. If the report is strong but inflation concerns persist, Gold could rally toward a new all-time high, targeting 2900+. On the other hand, a weak NFP could either lead to a pullback or further upside, depending on how traders interpret the Fed’s potential response. Key support remains at 2835–2800 for buy-the-dip opportunities. ⚡ Trade Setups to Consider: ✅ Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 2880 could open the door for a rally towards 2900–2925. 🚨 Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below 2835 could indicate a deeper correction, with downside targets near 2800 and 2785. 📊 Final Outlook: As long as gold holds above 2835, the bullish structure remains intact. A break and weekly close below this level would be the first sign of a deeper pullback. For now, dips remain buying opportunities unless price action suggests otherwise.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
SCALPING XAU ! resistance 2882 entry SELL today⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level since December 12 this week, driven by expectations of two Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, further boosting demand for non-yielding gold. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee attributed the recent inflation stagnation to base effects, emphasizing the need to balance overheating risks with economic stability. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan acknowledged significant inflation progress but noted that the labor market remains too strong to justify imminent rate cuts. However, this did little to strengthen the US Dollar. ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: Nova still thinks the market today will have a surprise for NF, the market will fall freely, going against the current majority psychology. ⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥 SELL GOLD zone: $2881 - $2883 SL $2888 TP1: $2870 TP2: $2860 TP3: $2850 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
2
SELL XAUUSDSELL XAUUSD I am selling XAU/USD (Gold against the US Dollar) due to a combination of technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors that suggest a potential decline in the price of gold relative to the US dollar. Here’s a detailed explanation of my reasoning: --- ### 1. **Strengthening US Dollar (USD)** - The US dollar has been showing signs of strength due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, including interest rate hikes or the expectation of tighter monetary conditions. A stronger dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in USD and becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. - Positive economic data from the US, such as robust GDP growth, low unemployment, or rising consumer confidence, further supports the dollar's strength, making gold less attractive. --- ### 2. **Rising Interest Rates** - Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it does not generate interest or dividends. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, as investors can earn higher returns from interest-bearing assets like bonds or savings accounts. - The Federal Reserve's commitment to combating inflation by maintaining higher interest rates for longer reduces the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. --- ### 3. **Declining Inflation Expectations** - Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. However, if inflation expectations are moderating or falling, the demand for gold as an inflation hedge diminishes. - Recent data showing easing inflationary pressures in the US or globally could reduce the urgency for investors to hold gold. --- ### 4. **Technical Analysis** - From a technical perspective, XAU/USD may be showing signs of a bearish trend. Key support levels may have been broken, or moving averages may indicate a downward momentum. - Overbought conditions on indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could suggest a potential reversal or correction in gold prices. --- ### 5. **Risk-On Market Sentiment** - Improved risk appetite in financial markets, driven by optimism about economic growth or resolution of geopolitical tensions, can lead investors to shift away from safe-haven assets like gold and into riskier assets such as equities or cryptocurrencies. - A reduction in geopolitical risks or market uncertainty reduces the demand for gold as a protective asset. --- ### 6. **Central Bank Gold Reserves** - While central banks have been net buyers of gold in recent years, any slowdown in their purchasing activity or a shift in their reserve management strategy could reduce demand for gold, putting downward pressure on prices. --- ### 7. **Seasonal or Cyclical Factors** - Gold prices often exhibit seasonal patterns, with demand fluctuating based on cultural or economic factors. If the current period aligns with a historically weaker season for gold, this could contribute to a price decline. --- ### Conclusion: Selling XAU/USD aligns with my analysis of the current macroeconomic environment, technical indicators, and market sentiment. While gold remains a valuable long-term asset and a hedge against uncertainty, the current conditions suggest a potential short-to-medium-term decline in its price relative to the US dollar. As always, I will monitor the market closely for any changes in trends or new developments that could impact this outlook. ---
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by H_R09
2
NF - Will the BIG SELL happen or not?⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION: China has imposed tariffs on select US goods in response to President Trump’s 10% levy on Chinese imports, escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies and reinforcing demand for safe-haven gold. On the economic front, the US Department of Labor (DoL) reported that initial jobless claims rose to 219K for the week ending February 1, up from the previous week’s revised 208K. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration is less concerned about the Federal Reserve’s rate path and is instead focused on lowering 10-year Treasury yields. ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: The market is too expecting a price increase - big FOMO will have high risks. NF news will shock the market today, BIG SELL will happen ⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥 BUY GOLD zone: $2851 - $2949 SL $2845 scalping TP1: $2855 TP2: $2860 TP3: $2865 🔥 BUY GOLD zone: $2813 - $2811 SL $2806 TP1: $2820 TP2: $2828 TP3: $2835 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
4
Gold's Rally and Bitcoin's Dip: Decoding the SignalsIs Gold's Glitter a Warning Sign? Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Plummets as Physical Gold Demand Soars Gold, the timeless safe-haven asset, has been experiencing a resurgence, raising eyebrows and sparking discussions about potential economic headwinds. Its recent outperformance, coupled with a dramatic drop in the Bitcoin-gold ratio and a surge in physical gold deliveries, suggests growing concerns about the global financial landscape. Are these developments harbingers of fiscal worries ahead? Gold's Allure Returns Gold's appeal as a store of value and hedge against uncertainty has been rekindled. While the yellow metal has historically played a crucial role in portfolios seeking diversification and stability, its recent performance has been particularly noteworthy. Gold prices have reached all-time highs, driven by a confluence of factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and fears of economic slowdown. One significant factor contributing to gold's rise is the escalating trade tensions between major economic powers. Past trade disputes, such as the tariff exchanges between the US and China, have historically fueled safe-haven demand, benefiting gold. The current geopolitical climate, marked by increasing uncertainty and potential for conflict, further strengthens this narrative. Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Plummets: A Shift in Investor Sentiment? The Bitcoin-gold ratio, a metric that compares the price of Bitcoin to that of gold, has recently plummeted to a 12-week low. This decline suggests a shift in investor sentiment, with many seemingly favoring the traditional safe haven of gold over the more volatile cryptocurrency. While Bitcoin has often been touted as "digital gold," its price volatility and perceived regulatory risks may be driving investors back to the established stability of physical gold. This shift could indicate a broader move away from riskier assets and towards more traditional safe havens. Physical Gold Demand Soars: A Flight to Tangible Assets Adding fuel to the gold fire is the dramatic increase in physical gold deliveries. Reports indicate a surge in gold shipments to the U.S., with traders actively loading the precious metal onto planes bound for American shores. Furthermore, major financial institutions are playing a significant role in this trend. Investment banking giant JPMorgan, for example, is reportedly planning to deliver a staggering $4 billion worth of gold to New York this month. This substantial demand for physical gold underscores a preference for tangible assets, potentially signaling a lack of confidence in the stability of financial markets or fiat currencies. Global Gold Demand Hits Record High: India Sees Uptick The global appetite for gold is not limited to the U.S. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand has reached record highs in 2024. Even in price-sensitive markets like India, gold demand has seen a 5% uptick. This widespread increase in gold consumption further reinforces the narrative of a flight to safety and a growing unease about the global economic outlook. Is Gold's Outperformance a Sign of Fiscal Worries Ahead? The confluence of factors driving gold's resurgence – geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, declining Bitcoin-gold ratio, and soaring physical gold demand – raises the critical question: are these indicators of deeper fiscal worries on the horizon? While it's impossible to predict the future with certainty, the historical precedent suggests a strong correlation between periods of economic uncertainty and increased demand for gold. Gold's role as a hedge against inflation and economic turmoil is well-established. When investors perceive heightened risks in the global economy, they often flock to gold as a safe haven, driving up its price. The current environment certainly exhibits many of the characteristics that have historically triggered such a flight to safety. The Potential Implications If the current gold rush is indeed a sign of growing fiscal concerns, the implications could be significant. Increased demand for gold could put further upward pressure on prices, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures. Furthermore, a shift away from riskier assets could lead to increased volatility in financial markets and potentially trigger a broader economic downturn. A Word of Caution While the evidence suggests a potential link between gold's outperformance and fiscal worries, it's essential to exercise caution. Market dynamics are complex and influenced by a multitude of factors. Gold's price can be volatile, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. It's crucial to avoid drawing hasty conclusions based solely on gold's price movements. Conclusion Gold's recent surge, coupled with the decline in the Bitcoin-gold ratio and the surge in physical gold deliveries, presents a compelling narrative. While it's too early to definitively declare a looming fiscal crisis, the confluence of factors driving gold's resurgence warrants close attention. Investors should carefully consider these developments and assess their potential impact on their portfolios. Whether gold's glitter is a mere reflection of market jitters or a harbinger of deeper economic troubles remains to be seen. However, the current trends certainly raise important questions about the health of the global economy and the potential for increased volatility in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
SIDEWAY and go up to make ATH 2800⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION: In January, the US ADP National Employment Change showed private sector job growth accelerating from 176K to 183K, surpassing expectations of 150K. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast but down from December’s 54.0. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI fell from 56.8 to 52.9, still exceeding projections of 52.8. Money markets are now pricing in 52 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts in 2025. ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: Gold price is sideways around 2855 - 2882, accumulating and will continue to go up: resistance price zone to pay attention to: 2900 ⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥 SELL GOLD zone: $2898 - $2900 SL $2905 TP1: $2890 TP2: $2860 TP3: $2850 🔥 BUY GOLD zone: $2832 - $2834 SL $2827 TP1: $2840 TP2: $2850 TP3: $2860 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
3