XAU/USD: $3,350 is the key focus for bulls and bears.The gold price broke through the key level of $3,330 during the European session, which was what the bulls had been trying to break through last week. This level is both the 50-day moving average and the resistance point at the upper edge of the descending channel. Technical indicators show that buying power is accumulating.
However, $3,350 is a key resistance level above. If the gold price can break through strongly, it will target $3,400; conversely, it will look to the first support level of $3,330.
Recent news will dominate the trend of gold, and traders should trade cautiously.
XAUUSD
sell@3345-3350
tp:3330-3320
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Xauusdsignal
XAUUSD – Correction or Reversal? 1. What happened yesterday
As expected, Gold started to rise after finding support at 3250. The move up played out perfectly, reaching the resistance area highlighted in yesterday’s analysis — around 3320–3340.
________________________________________
2. The key question today
Is this just a correction in a bearish trend, or the start of reversal?
________________________________________
3. Why I remain bearish
• On the weekly chart, structure still leans bearish
• On lower time frames, the bounce looks corrective — not impulsive
• No breakout above 3360 yet, which would be needed to shift the bias
• A move back below 3320 would likely trigger renewed selling
• If that happens, 3250 could be tested again quickly
We need to respect the bounce — but not overreact to it.
________________________________________
4. Trading plan
My bias remains bearish as long as price stays under 3360.
However, if we get a daily close above 3360, I’ll pause and re-evaluate the short bias. The market would then be signaling a potential trend shift.
________________________________________
5. Final thoughts 🚀
This is a key moment for gold. We’re at resistance zone but not broken above yet.
Until proven otherwise, the trend remains down — and rallies into 3340 zone should be considered selling opportunities.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook — July 1, 2025In the world of financial markets, few assets capture global attention like gold. A timeless store of value, gold continues to act as both a hedge against uncertainty and a battleground for technical traders seeking high-probability setups. As of today, gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3328, a level that places it just beneath the most recent multi-month high at $3345. The recent surge in price is underpinned by both macroeconomic factors and bullish technical structure. However, as any seasoned trader knows, trends rarely move in straight lines — and gold is now approaching a technically sensitive juncture.
I. Gold’s Structural Landscape on the 4-Hour Chart
The four-hour chart reveals a textbook bullish trend. Beginning with a significant impulse from the $3194 base, gold has climbed steadily, printing higher highs and higher lows. The most recent break of structure (BOS) above $3312 confirmed the continuation of bullish intent, while the market remains firmly above key swing lows — signaling that the bullish regime has not yet been invalidated.
Price action shows clean, impulsive expansions followed by short consolidations, with buyers continuing to absorb supply at every retracement. Despite that strength, gold has now reached a potential exhaustion point, with the price reacting to overhead supply at $3345–3355, forming what could be an early-stage distribution zone.
Key Market Structure Developments:
BOS at $3312: confirms uptrend
No CHoCH (Change of Character) yet — no confirmed bearish reversal
Clean liquidity grab above $3345, followed by rejection — hinting at short-term profit-taking or internal bearish intent
II. The Fibonacci Grid: Retracement and Extension Zones
Applying Fibonacci retracement from the $3194 swing low to the $3345 high offers crucial levels of interest. The golden ratio at 61.8% ($3253) aligns perfectly with prior demand and a 4-hour bullish order block. Similarly, the 38.2% level at $3285 corresponds with a minor liquidity pool and potential reaccumulation base.
Fibonacci Level Price
23.6% $3308
38.2% $3285
50.0% $3269
61.8% $3253
78.6% $3228
On the extension side, should gold resume its rally beyond $3345, projected Fibonacci targets sit at $3372 (127.2%) and $3410 (161.8%), with both acting as measured projections for trend continuation.
III. Supply and Demand: Mapping Institutional Footprints
Institutional activity is best observed through unmitigated supply and demand zones — areas where large orders caused rapid price displacement. Gold currently trades between two such zones:
Demand Zone: $3250–$3260 — a sharp bullish rejection occurred here on the last visit, indicating strong buy-side interest and likely pending buy orders
Supply Zone: $3345–$3355 — where a sell-side liquidity grab recently occurred, followed by a strong rejection candle
These two zones bracket the market and serve as the highest probability areas for future reactions.
IV. The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Framework
SMC theory revolves around observing the footprints of large market participants — often labeled “smart money.” In gold’s current structure, SMC tools provide a clearer roadmap than standard indicators.
Current Observations:
Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed at $3312 (bullish continuation)
Change of Character (CHoCH): Absent (bull trend intact)
Buy-Side Liquidity Grab: Above $3345 — trapped breakout buyers likely fuel for reversal
Sell-Side Liquidity Pool: Uncollected beneath $3280 — probable magnet for a liquidity sweep
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between $3260 and $3280 — price inefficiency offering high-probability reentry for smart money
Bullish Order Block (OB): At $3250–$3260 — final down candle before explosive up move, unmitigated
All these elements point to a high-probability pullback, rather than a full-blown reversal. Until structure is broken with a CHoCH, the base case remains bullish.
V. High-Probability Levels for 4-Hour-Based Opportunities
From this framework, we identify the following key price levels:
The highest-probability reaction is expected at $3250–$3260, where smart money is likely to re-engage if price retraces.
VI. Refinement on the 1-Hour Chart: Intraday Trade Setups
Zooming into the 1-hour chart allows us to fine-tune our execution strategy. Gold is consolidating just below $3330, forming what appears to be an ascending triangle — a common bullish continuation structure — but within the broader context of a possible short-term pullback.
Intraday Trade Idea #1 — High-Conviction Long
Entry: $3260
Stop-Loss: $3245
Take-Profit 1: $3308
Take-Profit 2: $3340
Risk–Reward: ~1:4
Rationale: Aligned with 4H demand, fair value gap, OB, and golden ratio retracement. Structure remains bullish.
Intraday Trade Idea #2 — Speculative Short (Low Conviction)
Entry: $3340–$3350
Stop-Loss: $3362
TP1: $3305
TP2: $3285
Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5
Rationale: Countertrend, only viable if bearish rejection candle forms. Not aligned with dominant 4H structure.
VII. The Golden Setup: Long from Demand + FVG Confluence
Among all technical configurations, the long setup at $3260 emerges as the most compelling. It is supported by:
An unmitigated bullish order block
A clear fair value gap
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Untouched sell-side liquidity below
Directional alignment with trend
Institutional demand pattern
This setup offers both superior risk-to-reward and a technical foundation that aligns with Smart Money’s modus operandi. It represents a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for traders who wait for price to re-enter the value zone and confirm with bullish order flow (e.g., a bullish engulfing or BOS on 15m).
VIII. Final Thoughts and Tactical Summary
As of July 1, 2025, the gold market reflects strong bullish momentum, albeit entering a corrective phase that should not be mistaken for reversal. While intraday volatility and range compression may tempt countertrend trades, the smartest play remains to wait for a discounted reentry into a zone of value.
Until structure shifts significantly, the dominant trading thesis remains: “Buy the dip into institutional zones”. Patience, not aggression, will separate the retail trader from the professional in today’s complex market structure.
GOLD SHORT TRADE IDEA ! Gold Looking For Sell On Order Block Zone 3331/3334 Target Will Be 3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish Engulfing + Fresh Supply Target Will Be 3275
Gold Sell First Zone OB H1 (3331/3335
Stoploss - 3345
Tp Levels - 3325,3320,3310,3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish EG + Fresh Supply (3338/3344)
Stoploss - 3350
TP levels : 3330; 3322; 3314; 3330, 3290
7/1 Gold Analysis and PMI Data Trading StrategyGood afternoon, everyone!
Gold has now entered a resistance zone, and on the 30-minute chart, a technical correction appears likely. This correction typically takes one of two forms:
A direct pullback from current levels;
A minor upward push before the pullback, intensifying the need for correction.
In most cases, the second scenario doesn’t result in a large move—unless it’s accompanied by strong news. Given this setup, today’s trading idea is to:
Start with a small short position near current resistance;
Add to the position if price pushes slightly higher, and patiently wait for a pullback. This strategy has shown over 80% historical success rate.
Key support levels to watch:
If the price rises before pulling back: 3321–3316
If the price drops directly: 3313–3306
On the 4-hour chart, the rebound is not yet complete, so if the pullback finds solid support, there’s still room for buy-side setups in line with the short-term trend.
⚠️ Important: U.S. PMI data will be released during the New York session. Strategy depends on pre-release price positioning:
If price remains below 3312, and the data is bullish → look for long setups.
If price is above 3323, wait for a post-data rally to sell into.
If the data is bearish → consider selling immediately.
Stay flexible, manage your positions wisely, and trade with discipline ahead of the U.S. session.
Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
"Gold at a Crossroads! Bullish or Bearish? (Trade Plan)"🦹♂️💰 "Gold Heist Alert: XAU/USD Bullish Raid or Bearish Ambush?" 💰🦹♂️
🌍 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Raiders! 🌍
(Hola! Oi! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!)
Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Method🔥, here’s our strategic heist plan for XAU/USD (Gold vs. Dollar). Follow the chart markings for high-probability loot zones—whether you're a bullish bandit or a bearish burglar! 🏴☠️💸
🎯 Entry Strategy (Where to Strike)
"The treasure is ripe for taking! Breakout = GO TIME!"
✅ Long Entry (Bullish Raid): Jump in at current levels if the uptrend holds.
✅ Short Entry (Bearish Ambush): Wait for a break & close below 3280.00 (confirms downtrend).
🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route)
🚨 For Bulls: Bail out if price hits 3240.00 (SL tightens if trend strengthens).
🚨 For Bears: Retreat if price surges past 3360.00 (only activate SL post-breakout!).
🎯 Take Profit (Loot & Scoot!)
💰 Bullish Thieves: Aim for 3600.00 (or exit early if momentum fades).
💰 Bearish Bandits: Target 3125.00 (or escape before the cops—err, reversal—arrives).
📡 Market Intel (Why This Heist?)
Gold’s in a neutral zone (but bulls have the edge! 🐂📈). Key factors:
Macroeconomic shifts
COT data clues
Sentiment & seasonal trends
(Full breakdown in the chart notes—klick the 🔗! 🔍🌐)
⚠️ Danger Zones (News & Risk Control)
🚨 High-Impact News = NO NEW TRADES!
🚨 Protect open positions: Use trailing stops to lock in profits.
🚨 Adjust SLs if volatility spikes!
💥 Boost the Heist! 💥
Like & Share to fuel our next market robbery! 🚀💰
Follow for more lucrative trade setups—coming soon! 👀🔥
🎯 Trade Smart, Steal Smarter! 🦹♂️💎
Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen # Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
🔸 **Instrument:** Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD)
🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min
🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure
🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup
---
## 🔍 Market Context:
- **Structure:** Bullish on LTF (MSU)
- **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean & Efficient Delivery
- **Recent Activity:** Reverse H&S completed + double BOS + CHoCH confirmed
- **Price Level:** Trading near key Supply zone (3300–3315)
- **Monthly Context:** July begins with bullish momentum & previous session showed aggressive buy-side pressure
---
## 🧠 Technical Breakdown:
1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone)
2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed
3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315**
4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet
5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB
---
## 📌 Trade Plan:
| Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) |
|----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------|
| Long | Above 3,303–3,310 (structure hold) | Below 3,294 | TP1: 3,325 / TP2: 3,340 / TP3: 3,348 |
| Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 |
---
## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch:
- 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview)
- 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk
- 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses
---
## ✅ Summary:
> **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum.
> The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**.
> Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting.
**Structure:** 🟢 Bullish
**Trend:** 📈 MSU
**Efficiency:** ✅ Clean
**Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL
---
📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
Go long on dips and short on rallies📰 News information:
1. Gold market liquidity at the end of the month
2. Impact of geopolitical situation
📈 Technical Analysis:
Last week we predicted that gold would rebound. Today, after gold rebounded as expected, we gave a short trading strategy. Gold fell precisely at the point we gave, 3295, and successfully hit our TP3280-3270. The result confirmed the correctness of our trading strategy. Next, we will focus on the long trading opportunities below 3270-3260.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3270-3260
TP 3290-3300
SELL 3295-3300-3310
TP 3280-3270
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical and Policy GamesToday's gold price rebounded above $3,280 after opening with a dive to a low of $3,247, showing a volatile trend.
Influencing Factors
- Geopolitics: The ceasefire between Israel and Iran earlier caused gold prices to fall, but Trump's threat to bomb Iran again and maintain sanctions has revived market risk aversion, supporting gold prices with some bargain hunting.
- Monetary Policy: Expectations for Fed rate cuts have fluctuated. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 81.9% probability of unchanged rates in July and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by September. U.S. economic data (e.g., personal consumption expenditure) and tariff policies are influencing gold's trajectory.
- Capital Flows: Global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with outflows led by North American and Asian funds, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Technical Analysis
Gold rebounded after a pullback last week, closing with two consecutive weekly gains. The $3,300-$3,310 range is a key resistance zone: a firm break above could signal a short-term trend reversal, while failure to do so may lead to a test of $3,200. On the daily chart, moving averages are bearish, MACD forms a death cross below the zero axis with expanding green bars (indicating dominant bearish momentum), but RSI at 39 near oversold levels suggests potential short-term rebound for correction.
Trading Strategy
Short gold on a rebound to the $3,305-$3,310 resistance zone, setting a stop-loss at $3,320. Initial targets are $3,280-$3,290, where profits can be gradually taken based on price action and market sentiment. If the decline continues, adjust targets downward to around $3,250, and flexibly adapt to real-time market conditions.
XAUUSD
sell@3300~3310
SL:3320
TP:3290~3280-3270
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Gold Is Set to Bottom Out and Rebound This WeekGood morning, everyone!
At today’s open, gold once again dipped into the 3258–3248 buy zone, then rebounded toward 3270. From a structural perspective, gold has clearly entered a downward trend, but this decline is unlikely to be one-directional—short-term rebounds and consolidations are expected along the way.
Based on my experience, below 3250 remains a favorable area for initiating long positions. Whether the price rebounds directly or continues lower before building a stronger base to challenge 3300 again, the broader outlook remains bullish as long as the 3200 support holds. A bottoming reversal this week is still the more probable scenario.
As such, the focus early this week should be on buying near the lows, with short opportunities on rebounds as a secondary strategy. Monitor key support levels for signs of strength.
This week is also packed with important data—including PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), and the unemployment rate, in addition to regular economic releases. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, significant market volatility is expected—bringing both risk and opportunity. Manage your exposure carefully and stay adaptable.
Gold fluctuates upward. Is the decline over?On Monday, gold opened at around 3282, and then fell back quickly to around 3247 under pressure; the downward low was blocked, and then rebounded strongly to around 3297; the market currently maintains a small upward trend.
At present, we need to focus on the resistance range of the upward trend.
From the 4-hour chart, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, followed by the suppression range of 3310-3315. The main direction of short-term operations maintains the rebound short-selling strategy. The support below is around 3255; the overall short-term operation relies on 3260-3300 to maintain the main tone of high-altitude participation unchanged.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3305, stop loss 3320, profit range 3270-3260.
A new week has just begun. I wish you all gain something from the market fluctuations.
Gold is trading sideways. Has it reached a high point?On the first trading day of this week, after hitting 3247 in the early Asian session, it quickly rebounded to around 3295, and then fell back slightly. It is currently maintained at around 3285.
From the hourly chart, the Fibonacci 0.618 position of this trend from 3247 to 3297 is at 3278. The price has always been above 3278, but it has only fallen below this position in a very short time. If the retracement does not break through the 0.618 position, there is a high probability that there will be a high point in the subsequent trend.
Next, we should focus on the area around 3280. If the price always closes above 3280, then today's high point of 3297 will most likely be refreshed. If the upward trend is opened again, it is very likely to touch around 3310. 3310 is also the current 0.618 position. And it is also the top position of this hourly chart range.
Therefore, we should be cautious when shorting gold above 3280, as there is a high probability that it will reach above 3300.
Aggressive trading can rely on entering the market and going long near 3280, and the profit range is between 3300-3310.
For short strategy trading, Quaid recommends that it is safer to short when the price rebounds near 3310.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Early Session Dynamics:
Gold rebounded in today’s early trading after finding support at the prior low of 3245, aligning with our weekly forecast. The intraday strategy prioritizes a low-level rebound correction, with short positions to be initiated at resistance levels.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 3295–3308
Support: 3250–3240
4-Hour Chart Perspective:
The market remains weak with high volatility. The double-bottom effect at 3245 is unconfirmed, and no bottoming pattern has emerged. Thus, the week’s initial outlook is for a range-bound oscillation between 3308 and 3240:
A rebound opportunity exists as long as 3240 holds.
A break above 3308 could trigger upward momentum.
Intraday Trading Strategy:
Lacking follow-through in the European session, the short-term trend is viewed as range-bound
Sell@3305-3295
TP:3285-3250
buy@3250-3260
TP:3285-3300
XAU/USD Bearish Rejection Setup Below Resistance ZoneXAU/USD (Gold) is forming a bearish setup on the 30-minute chart. Price is testing a resistance near 3288, with a potential reversal towards the 3236 level. Entry is marked around current price, with a stop loss at 3311 and take profit near 3237, supported by a descending channel.
GOLD H2 Intraday Chart update for 30 June 2025Hello Traders,
As you can see that there are some solid in the market since morning, right now market is sustains below 3300 Psychological Level and move towards 3270-75 key support zone and then at 3350
Monthly candlestick closing also due today
only if market breaks 3305 successfully today then GOLD will move towards 3335
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
XAUUSD Under Pressure: What the Market Is Telling UsGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading with a clear bearish bias, showing sustained downside momentum on the 4H timeframe 🕒. Price has been gradually stepping lower, and the structure continues to favor the sellers.
As expected for early in the week, there’s been a bit of choppy movement ⚖️, but the overall sentiment remains weak. Unless we see a strong shift or catalyst, I’ll be maintaining a bearish outlook.
🧭 I’m watching for price to revisit key resistance levels, and if we get a clean break and retest 🔄, I’ll be looking for potential short setups from areas of previous demand that flip into resistance.
🌐 Keep an eye on broader risk sentiment — if NASDAQ starts pulling back or DXY strengthens, it could fuel further downside in gold.
As always, this is not financial advice, but the detailed breakdown is available in the latest video 🎥.
Gold Rebounds from 3250 – But Bears Still in Control1. What happened last week
As you know, I’ve been bearish on Gold all last week long. Even though the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated over the weekend, the fact that price couldn’t reclaim the 3400 resistance was a major red flag.
It showed us that the bullish sentiment was fragile, and that downside pressure is just around the corner.
And indeed — Gold sold off. The weekly close below the 3300 level confirmed the weakness.
2. The key question now
Has Gold found a bottom at 3250, or is this just a temporary rebound before another leg down?
3. Why I expect a continuation lower
- The weekly close was under 3300, breaking key support
- 3250 is being tested again — a level touched multiple times since the mid-April ATH
- The current rebound looks corrective, not impulsive
- Resistance levels at 3320 and 3340 are likely to hold as ceilings
- No major catalyst yet to justify a reversal
- This looks like a classic “sell the rally” setup in a weakening trend.
4. Trading plan
The idea is simple: sell the spikes.
If price bounces into 3320–3340, I will look to short again, anticipating a renewed test of the 3250 support zone.
If 3250 breaks — we could see acceleration toward 3200 or lower.
5. Final thoughts 🚀
No need to complicate things. Gold remains vulnerable unless it clears 3340. Until then, the trend is your friend — and that trend points down.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Defend Key Support, Eyes on TrendlineTVC:GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) bounced from the $3,261 support zone after briefly dipping to a one-month low around $3,265 in early Asian trade. The rebound came as buyers stepped in at a major demand area, rejecting further downside and suggesting bullish intent.
Macro drivers include reduced safe-haven demand following the US-China trade agreement on rare earths and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, expectations of a Fed rate cut—especially after weaker US consumer spending data—could limit further losses.
Technically, OANDA:XAUUSD gold has formed a double bottom around $3,261, and price action now threatens to break above a descending trendline (TL1). A confirmed breakout above minor resistance at $3,283 may open the door toward $3,311 and potentially the upper trendline near $3,330.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $3,261 (defended), $3,250 (monthly low)
Resistance: $3,283 (minor), $3,311 (former support turned resistance), $3,330 (TL2 trendline)
📉 Trendlines: TL1 and TL2 still capping upside; breakout would confirm bullish shift
If bulls can maintain control above $3,283 and push through the trendline, a broader recovery could follow. However, failure to clear this zone may invite renewed selling pressure.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
"The Great Gold Heist" – XAU/USD Master Plan🏆 "The Great Gold Heist" – XAU/USD Master Plan (High-Risk, High-Reward Loot!) 🚨💰
🌟 Attention, Market Robbers & Money Makers! 🌟
Hola! Oi! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🤑💸
🔥 Based on the legendary Thief Trading Strategy (technical + fundamental heist tactics), here’s our blueprint to STEAL massive profits from the XAU/USD (Gold vs. Dollar) market! 🔥
🎯 The Heist Plan (Long Entry Setup)
Entry Point 📈: *"The vault is UNLOCKED! Swipe bullish loot at any price—but for a cleaner steal, set Buy Limits within 15-30M recent swing lows/highs. ALERT UP! ⏰"*
Stop Loss 🛑: "Thief’s SL hides at the nearest swing low (3H TF: 3250.00) OR below the last daily candle wick. Adjust based on your risk appetite & lot size!"
Target 🏴☠️: 3490.00 (or escape early if the cops—err, bears—show up!)
⚡ Scalper’s Quick Loot Guide:
"Only scalp LONG! Rich? Go all-in. Broke? Join the swing traders & rob slow ‘n’ steady. Use Trailing SL to lock profits!"
📊 Market Status:
XAU/USD (GOLD) – Neutral (But Bullish Sneak Attack Likely! 🐂💥)
"The heist is ON, but watch for traps—overbought zones, consolidation, and bearish robbers lurking!"
🔍 Pro Thief Moves:
✅ Fundamentals Matter! (COT Reports, Geopolitics, Macro Data, Sentiment—check our BIO0 for the full loot list!) 🔗👉🏻☝🏻
✅ News = Danger! Avoid new trades during releases. Trail your SLs to protect stolen cash! 📰🚨
💖 Support the Heist Crew!
"Hit the BOOST BUTTON 💥 to strengthen our robbery squad! More boosts = easier money steals daily!"
🚀 Stay tuned—another heist drops soon! 🐱👤💎
Gold's 3290-3300 Support : Next Week Aims for Gap-Up Retest Last week, gold opened with a gap-up on Monday 🔼, then trended downward 🔽.
⚡ Notably, the 3290-3300 support zone held firmly from Monday to Thursday, demonstrating strong resilience.
🌱 The price plunged to around 3255 on Friday but rebounded promptly.
🔥 For next week, the opening may surge toward the 3290-3300 zone, warranting close attention.
🚀 Buy@3260 - 3270
🚀 TP 3280 - 3290 -3300
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XAUUSD 30/6 – 4/7/2025: Selling Pressure Builds - In the past week, gold OANDA:XAUUSD has been under consistent selling pressure due to the following key macro factors:
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY surged, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold and leading to widespread sell-offs.
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered around 4.30%–4.35% , reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
- Core PCE data for June indicated that inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal in the short term.
➤ As a result, these combined factors are applying downward pressure on XAUUSD, especially after price decisively broke the 3,300 USD support zone.
1. Technical Analysis of XAUUSD – Daily Timeframe
On the D1 chart:
- Price has broken below the key support zone 3,300 – 3,331 USD, confirming a short-term bearish structure.
- The Fibonacci retracement from the 3,399 peak to the 3,295 low has completed its pullback to the 0.5–0.618 zone (3,345 – 3,359 ) but was strongly rejected by sellers.
- Price is now trading below both EMA20 and EMA50, indicating strong bearish momentum.
- RSI has turned back under 50 and has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting further downside potential exists.
2. Key Resistance and Support Zones for XAUUSD
Technical Role ( 3,345 – 3,359 )
- Major confluence resistance (Fibonacci 0.618 + supply) ( 3,295 – 3,300 )
- Immediate resistance zone (post-breakdown retest) ( 3,260 – 3,235 )
- Short-term support and potential buy interest ( 3,223 – 3,205 )
- Strong medium-term support (Fibonacci 1.0 + April lows)
3. Trading Strategy for XAUUSD This Week (30/6 – 4/7/2025)
Strategy 1 – Favor Short Positions Aligned with Bearish Momentum
Entry: Sell near 3,295 – 3,300 (anticipating resistance retest)
Stop Loss: 3,304
Take Profit 1: 3,290
Take Profit 2: 3,285
Take Profit 3: 3,275
Strategy 2 – Countertrend Buy at Key Support with Confirmation
Entry: Buy near 3,235 – 3,240 only if bullish reversal candles (pin bar or bullish engulfing) appear on H4 or D1
Stop Loss: 3,230
Take Profit 1: 3,245
Take Profit 2: 3,250
Take Profit 3: 3,260
Ps : XAUUSD is currently in a downward correction phase, with the next target zone lying between 3,235 – 3,260 USD. The inability to hold above 3,300 confirms that sellers remain in control. The most favorable approach this week is to sell on rallies, especially near former support-turned-resistance zones.
Stay vigilant, follow updated price action closely, and strictly manage risk to protect your capital.
Follow for more high-probability strategies throughout the week – and save this idea if you find it valuable to your trading journey.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
Non-agricultural data is coming. Will it affect the market trendBecause there will be non-agricultural data next week, Quaid thinks that the market will not be in a hurry to perform at the beginning of the week. And Friday is the US Independence Day, and the market will be closed in advance; maybe only Wednesday and Thursday are really needed.
This week, gold closed below 3300, and the daily line was also broken, and gold officially entered a bearish trend.
First look at the monthly line chart
Because next Monday is the last day of June, the monthly line will start to close, so you can still pay attention to the support of the monthly line. The MA5 moving average below the monthly line is currently around 3170. Moreover, with the support of non-agricultural data next week, the possibility of touching around 3170 is not ruled out.
Secondly, from the weekly line chart
The weekly line is basically the same as the monthly line. The MA20 moving average below is also around 3170. So next week, I think we should focus on around 3170. The monthly line and the weekly line resonate, so the probability of touching this position is very high.
Finally, let's look at the daily chart. The daily chart shows a downward trend and the short-term support has been broken. The current support is around 3250. I think there is a high probability of a small sideways consolidation at the beginning of the week. If the market conditions are eager to change, it may rebound slightly and then continue to decline. If it falls below 3250, it will continue to fall towards 3200. If this level is broken, it may hit the low point of 3170-3175.