XAUUSD Gold in Overdrive: Awaiting a Critical Pullback for a BuyDaily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, XAUUSD has surged to new highs, signaling an overextended market as gold rallies far above previous price swings. The price is now trading at a premium, which indicates that much of the bullish momentum may already be priced in. As a result, there is potential for a pullback toward a more attractive entry area. Specifically, a retracement into a discounted zone—ideally below the 50% level of the previous swing—may offer a better long opportunity rather than entering at these extended levels. 📈⚠️
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Examining the 4-hour timeframe reveals more granular price action that aligns with the daily trend. Here, gold displays signs of potential exhaustion with the recent impulsive moves. The market structure hints at the possibility of a short-term setup if the price begins to reverse, aligning with basic Wyckoff theory principles. This suggests that while there might be an interim short play if the reversal is confirmed, the expectation remains that a healthy pullback will eventually pave the way for a new long opportunity once the price finds support. 🔻🤔
Integrating Price Action, Market Structure & Wyckoff Theory
Using elements of Wyckoff theory, it's clear that the current rally has pushed the market into an overbought state.
• The price action indicates a likely initiation of a distribution phase, where selling pressure might temporarily take over.
• A pullback into the discounted zone (particularly under the 50% retracement of the prior range) would be an ideal opportunity to look for a buying setup.
• On the flip side, if the shorter-term setup solidifies, a conservative short play could be considered until signs of accumulation emerge.
This dual perspective underscores the importance of disciplined risk management and monitoring short-term reversals while keeping an eye on the broader trend. 🔍📉💡
Summary of Key Takeaways
XAUUSD is currently overextended with a strong rally to new highs. While the momentum is robust, the premium pricing compared to previous swings suggests caution. A pullback into a discounted zone, specifically below the 50% retracement level, could provide a more enticing entry point for those looking to go long. Concurrently, the 4-hour chart offers potential setups for a short play should price action indicate a reversal. Coupling these observations with Wyckoff theory fundamentals can allow for a balanced, dynamic trading strategy. 🔄
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
Xauusdsignal
Gold: Directional Break ImminentYesterday’s market remained calm without any significant swings, unlike the strong movements we’ve seen previously. Today, however, appears to be a critical turning point as the market prepares for a directional breakout.
📊 Technical Overview:
Gold is showing signs of retesting the resistance around 3240, while short-term support lies at 3194–3188. If this resistance holds and the price fails to break above, a double-top pattern may form—potentially triggering a major drop between Wednesday and Thursday.
If the price breaks above 3240, there may be around $30 of additional upside, but this is likely to mark the formation of a short-term top, followed again by a decline.
🎯 Key Bearish Target Zones: 3137-3106
Whether it breaks upward or downward, a bearish opportunity is building. Stay patient, follow the price action, and avoid emotional decisions to catch the move at the right moment.
Analysis of Current Gold Trend & Trading TipsLast Friday, after surging to 3,245, gold encountered selling pressure and retreated, and the range-bound adjustment continued throughout the day. From a technical standpoint, the suppression of the double-top pattern is evident on the 4-hour chart. The MA10 moving average has crossed downward, creating a new resistance level at 3,220. If the price fails to hold steady above this level, it may further decline to the area between 3,170 and 3,160. Currently, the short-term moving averages are diverging downward, and the key support below has shifted to the range of 3,190 to 3,180. The hourly chart shows a pattern of high-level consolidation, currently concentrated within the range of 3,193 to 3,220, with no clear trend.
In terms of trading operations, it is recommended to mainly focus on shorting on rebounds: pay attention to the resistance at 3,215 to 3,220. When the price reaches this area, you can try shorting with a small position. The support below is at 3,187 to 3,190. If the price breaks below this level, it may accelerate its downward movement. It is necessary to be wary of the fluctuations triggered by the data in the US trading session. However, overall, the outlook remains one of a range-bound and slightly bearish trend. Set stop-losses strictly to control risks.
XAUUSD
sell@3215-3220
tp:3200-3190
Investment itself doesn't carry risks; it's only when investment is out of control that risks arise. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Strategic Analysis of Gold for the Next WeekOn Friday, the gold price continued its slow upward trend. Subsequently, it experienced a slight pullback, but still maintained an overall upward trend. This indicates that the current sentiment of the bulls is quite high, while the bears are unable to achieve decisive suppression in the short term. Due to the relatively obvious recent trend of fluctuating upward movement, there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to whether the price will continue to rapidly reach a peak. Therefore, for trend trading, one may need to patiently wait for the market to make its own choice.
Judging from the current situation, the gold market still has a strong bullish momentum. Whether it is the market's risk aversion sentiment, the impetus given by economic data to the market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, or the bullish trend at the technical level, all of these factors provide support for the rise in the price of gold.
In terms of short-term trading ideas for gold, it is still recommended to mainly go long on pullbacks and go short on rebounds as a supplement. For next Monday, focus on the two support levels of 3200 and 3170. If the gold price remains above 3220, it is expected to continue to challenge higher prices. The upper resistance is roughly in the range of 3245 - 3255. If this resistance level can be effectively broken through, the gold price is expected to further reach the range of 3280 - 3300.
XAUUSD trading strategy
buy @ 3205-3215
sl 3195
tp 3230-3240
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.Thank you!
Strategic Analysis of GoldAlthough Trump has announced the exclusion of smartphones and computers from the list of reciprocal tariffs, which has alleviated some market concerns, due to the uncertainty of the overall tariff policy, the gold price still remains above $3,200 after falling from the intraday all - time high of $3,245 on Monday.
Judging from the current trend of gold, we should still pay attention to the resistance level in the range of 3240 - 3245. In the short term, focus on the support level in the range of 3185 - 3190. Currently, the trend has not reversed. It is likely that the bulls are pulling back to accumulate strength and move in a volatile pattern. In terms of trading operations, it is advisable to mainly go long during pullbacks.
XAUUSD trading strategy
buy @ 3195-3205
sl 3180
tp 3218-3223
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.Thank you!
Can we continue to go long on gold?The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a bullish arrangement with a golden cross, and there is still no sign of a turnaround, so the gold bulls are still strong, and now gold is just falling back. The short-term support of gold is 3193, and the gold US market continues to be bullish.
Trading ideas:Gold long around 3208 sl:3193 tp:3225
Gold: It may Fall below 3180 todayOver the weekend, Trump announced a pause on tariffs for popular consumer electronics, prompting gold to gap down to 3210 at today’s open;
✅ Our recommended short entries at 3230–3260 are already in profit;
New semiconductor tariff announcements are due during the U.S. session today — the key driver for gold’s next move;
Given the fragile U.S. political/economic backdrop, escalating tariff conflict is unlikely, increasing the chance of bearish impact on gold;
With gold already trading at a premium, any "tariff relief" narrative will likely trigger speculative sell-offs;
If you're holding short positions, consider being patient — avoid premature exits due to emotional reaction to minor pullbacks.
Maintain key short entry zone: 3230 – 3260;
Expect gold to test below 3180 if market sentiment shifts
Gold’s decline is not over yet, aim at: 3160-3150Gold fell below the 3200 mark several times during the test. Although it recovered above 3200 several times, the rebound momentum is gradually weakening, giving short sellers the opportunity to counterattack.
From the perspective of the morphological structure, gold has perfectly constructed an arc top structure, laying a solid foundation for gold to usher in a retracement at any time. The 4-hour candle chart shows that the fall has just begun, so gold still has plenty of room for retracement. At present, gold has rebounded slightly after touching around 3200, but if it cannot break through the 3216-3220 zone during the rebound, it will further confirm the downward trend of gold, then gold will inevitably retreat to the 3160-3150 zone, and in the process of decline, once the profit chips are cashed in or even panic selling is triggered, gold may even have the opportunity to retreat to the 3130-3120 zone!
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, I still advocate shorting gold in batches. The decline of gold has not ended. Let us look forward to gold bringing us huge profits during the retracement!
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4/14 Gold Trading StrategiesLast Friday, gold showed a strong unidirectional rally followed by tight-range consolidation at high levels. Our bearish-biased strategy yielded limited profits, and some traders may still be holding trapped positions due to delayed exits. However, structurally, gold’s current posture signals early signs of exhaustion, and a pullback remains likely.
🔥【Key Headlines to Watch】
🇺🇸 The U.S. has suspended tariffs on popular consumer electronics, causing gold to gap down by $30 at today’s open.
🛠️ Trump is expected to unveil details on semiconductor tariffs — a reduction or pause will likely pressure gold lower.
💬 Two Fed officials speak today:
Barkin: Speech on “Navigating Through Economic Fog”
Cook: Remarks on the Fed’s evolving role in the economy.
📊 The NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations report will be released — market expectations are bearish for gold.
🔍【Technical Outlook】
Gold remains near historic highs, trading at an extended premium;
The recent rally has been largely driven by speculative inflows, not solid demand;
If sentiment flips or profit-taking begins, a sharp sell-off could follow;
Structurally, gold appears to be forming a top — favor short setups at elevated levels.
🎯【Trade Setup for Today】
🔻Sell Zone: 3230 – 3250
Look to short near resistance on failed breakouts
🔺Buy Zone: 3128 – 3104
Consider long entries only on healthy pullbacks to strong support
🔄Range Zones:
3220 – 3195
3158 – 3206
Tactical range trading — adapt to intraday momentum shifts
ONGOING TRADE IN XAUUSD(GOLD)🚨 **XAUUSD – Major Rejection Incoming?** 🚨
📉 *Golden Setup Alert – April 14, 2025*
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently showing **clear signs of exhaustion** at the top of a well-respected ascending channel on the 4H chart. After a sharp bullish rally, price is now facing **resistance near $3,235**, failing to break higher and showing early signs of a potential reversal. 👀
### 🔍 Technical Breakdown:
- 🔺 **Ascending Channel:** Price has been respecting the rising channel structure — higher highs & higher lows.
- 📌 **Rejection at Upper Boundary:** The latest candle suggests **bearish pressure** right at the top of the channel.
- 📉 **Expected Retracement:** The projection indicates a move toward **$3,135**, then potentially **$3,100** — a key demand zone and midpoint of the channel.
- 🔄 **Break Below $3,135** would confirm bearish momentum.
---
### 📲 *Trader’s Takeaway:*
Now is the time to **watch closely for confirmation** of a reversal. If bearish momentum kicks in, we could see a clean short opportunity all the way to the mid-channel zone. Great R:R setup loading!
💡 *Risk Management is key — patience pays profits!*
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionIn this video, I break down the key forces pushing gold to record highs. Learn how factors such as US-China trade tensions, global inflation pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty—combined with a weakening US Dollar and safe-haven demand—are reshaping the gold market.
In this quick analysis, we cover:
🔹 Inflation & Economic Uncertainty: How rising prices and central bank policies continue to drive interest in gold.
🔹 Trade Tensions & Geopolitical Risks: The impact of US-China disputes and global instability on market sentiment.
🔹 US Dollar Weakness: Why a softer USD is making gold a more attractive asset for international investors.
🔹 Technical Insights: Pinpointing key price levels and exploring potential trend continuations or reversals ahead of US retail sales data.
Disclaimer:
Forex and other market trading involve high risk and may not be for everyone. This content is educational only—not financial advice. Constantly assess your situation and consult a professional before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
#GoldMarketAnalysis #Inflation #TradeTensions #GeopoliticalRisks #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading
Gold Maintains Weekly Bullish Structure Amid PullbackGold Weekly Technical Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a clear bullish trend on the weekly chart, currently trading around $3,230. After marking a new high, price action suggests a potential pullback—a healthy retracement that could set the stage for further gains.
Key Levels to Watch:
Current Price: $3,230
Retracement Zone:
First support at $3,100, a recent consolidation level
Deeper support between $2,950 – $2,900, aligned with prior breakout structure and strong demand from earlier in the trend
These levels are key for a potential bounce, as they mark high-probability zones for buyers to re-enter the market.
Upside Targets:
Short-term resistance: $3,280
Primary target (by mid-May): $3,400
This level aligns with the projected extension of the ascending structure and continuation of bullish momentum
Technical Outlook:
As long as gold holds above $2,900, the weekly bullish trend remains intact. A rebound from the retracement zone would likely lead to a renewed rally targeting the $3,400 region.
XAU/USD15-Min Chart –Bullish Setup with RBR Zone & Breakout TRG🔷 Chart Structure
* 📊 Ascending Channel
↗️ Price is moving within an upward-sloping channel
• Higher Highs
• Higher Lows
* 🔍 Short-Term Trend: Bullish momentum is intact
🟦 Key Zones
* 🟦 RBR Zone (Rally-Base-Rally)
📌 Support area where buyers stepped in
🔄 Price bounced from this zone
* 🟥 Resistance Zone
🚫 Around 3,250 – sellers previously active here
👀 Watch for breakout confirmation
✅ Trade Setup
* 🎯 Entry Point: 3,226.38
* ⛔ Stop Loss: 3,216.30
* 🥅 Target: 3,267.00
* 💰 Potential Gain: 38.67 points (1.20%)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 — very favorable!
📍 Indicators
* 📉 EMA (7) — acts as short-term support
🟡 Price is consolidating near EMA — possible setup for next move.
📌 Outlook
* 🟢 Bullish Bias – As long as price stays above RBR zone
* 🔔 Breakout Alert – A break above resistance may lead to sharp upside move toward the target.
XAUUSD Today's strategyLast week, the price of gold fluctuated sharply. It reached a low of $2,955, a high of $3,245, and finally closed at $3,238. The maximum cumulative increase throughout the week was $290, and the trading activity in the market reached a new high for the current stage.
This rally is also extremely rare in the historical price trends of gold over the past few decades. The driving factors are far beyond traditional logic – not only driven by the heightened inflation expectations and the weakening of the US dollar, but also more deeply induced by the intensification of the cracks in the global trade system and the continuous spillover of geopolitical risks. The uncertainty pervading the market has dampened investors' confidence. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world have turned to increasing their holdings of physical gold one after another to avoid the systemic risks of the US dollar and other financial assets.
We maintain our bullish view unchanged. For short-term operations, it is recommended to continue with the strategy of going long on dips. Pay special attention to the key support level of $3,200, and you can consider placing long positions near this price level.
XAUUSD
buy@3210-3220
tp:3250-3260
When you find yourself in a difficult situation and at a loss in trading, don't face it alone. Please get in touch with me. I'm always ready to fight side by side with you, avoid risks, and embark on a new journey towards stable profits.
Will gold first fall and then rise today?
The gold 1-hour moving average is still in a bullish arrangement with a golden cross. Now the price is gradually approaching the moving average, but the gold bull trend has not changed for the time being. Patiently wait for the opportunity to adjust. Pay attention to the support near the previous low of 3185. The moving average support has now moved up to the line near 3177. Overall, gold may form a strong support near 3180. For today's gold trend, I personally think it will fall first and then rise.
XAUUSD buy zone in 1h break of structureLast 3 days of past week XAUUSD had a strong uptrend with bullish momentum. From 1h perspective we have seen price had a bounce, and there is no significant break of structure on the lower timeframe, which means, as with the new market open, any break of structure is an opportunity to go long. Expecting to test the previous swing low is a zone where we can look for for potential entry to ride the trend.
Will wait for price action confirmation on market opening.
Gold Market Insight: Impact of U.S.-China Trade DevelopmentsGold has been consolidating within a rising wedge pattern since September 2023, facing resistance along a key trendline. Recent geopolitical developments, particularly the intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions, have acted as a catalyst for a significant breakout. The imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S., followed by China's retaliatory 125% tariff on U.S. goods, has heightened market uncertainties. These actions have led to a surge in safe-haven demand, propelling gold prices to record highs above $3,200 per ounce
In the past three trading sessions, gold has advanced over 2,500 pips, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, to sustain this upward trajectory towards the $3,400 level, a period of consolidation or a corrective pullback may be necessary. Such a phase would allow for the absorption of selling pressure and the liquidation of short positions, providing a foundation for further gains.
The current market dynamics suggest that while buyers are in control, the presence of residual selling interest necessitates caution. A decisive breach above recent highs, accompanied by increased volume and momentum, would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.\
Should the U.S. implement further tariff relaxations, particularly in sectors like technology, we may witness a retracement in gold prices towards the $3,000 level. This zone aligns with multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) identified between $2,990 and $3,000, suggesting a potential area for price stabilization. Such policy shifts could alleviate some market uncertainties, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Conversely, if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China remain stalled or further deteriorate, gold could resume its upward momentum, potentially targeting the $3,400 mark. This scenario would be driven by continued safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical uncertainties.
In summary, gold's near-term movements are contingent upon the progression of U.S.-China trade discussions. Traders should monitor these developments closely, as they will likely dictate gold's direction in the coming sessions.
Monday Gold Open: Unlock Profitable Strategies & Hot TrendsFrom the current market situation, China has announced the imposition of a 125% tariff on the United States in response to Trump's decision to raise the tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. Due to the weakening of the US dollar and economic concerns triggered by the intensification of the trade war, the safe-haven asset gold broke through the key $3,200 mark for the first time on Friday. Technically, from the daily chart perspective, within the past seven trading days, the price of gold first dropped by $210 and then rose by nearly $290, and the upward trend shows no sign of stopping.
At the beginning of this week, the price of gold dropped to around $2,956 and then skyrocketed for several consecutive days. By the end of trading on Friday, the international gold price once rose to around $3,245, setting a new all-time high again. The fluctuation range of the international gold price this week was as high as nearly $289. This week, John's signals regarding the rise and fall of gold prices also brought good returns to everyone.
From the analysis of the 4-hour chart, this upward rally is extremely strong. It has been climbing all the way with almost no pullbacks. After surpassing last week's high point, it has stabilized above $3,200. The technical indicators show a golden cross and are rising, with no sign of stopping for now. On Friday, it directly soared to a record high of $3,245, but there was a slight pullback at the close. Next week, we need to focus on whether the price of gold gaps up and fills the gap.
XAUUSD
buy@3210-3220
tp:3240-3260
Investment itself doesn't carry risks; it's only when investment is out of control that risks arise. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Traders, if this concept fits your style or you have insights, comment! I'm keen to hear.
XAUUSD:Obtaining of Trading Signals for Next WeekThe outlook for gold remains bullish next week. Concerns about economic recession triggered by tariffs, rising inflation expectations, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical tensions are providing impetus for the increase in the gold price.
For next week's trading, go long with the uptrend. Key is grasping entry/exit points. Top-bottom support is around 3168. Strong bullishness makes big pullbacks unlikely; else it'll turn range-bound. Friday's decline has short-term supports at 3219 and 3210. On Monday, open long positions per pullback magnitude. Focus on 3245 resistance. If broken, keep riding the uptrend.
Trading Strategy:
buy@3210-3220
TP:3240-3260
The signals last week resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily.
Tariffs remain a major driver of XAUUSD swingsThe long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Tariffs are still a major variable causing significant fluctuations in gold.
In April 2025, the global trade war was in a severe situation. The adjustment of the United States' tariff policies triggered a series of countermeasures from various countries. The specific situation is as follows:
U.S. Tariff Policies
Since April 9th, the United States has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and other regions, covering key sectors such as automobiles, steel, and semiconductors.😒
Countermeasures of Various Countries
China: On April 4th, China announced that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from April 10th. On April 9th, the tariff rate was further increased to 84%, covering all U.S. goods.😠
The European Union: Announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. motorcycles, diamonds, and other goods starting from May 16th.😤
Canada: Imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. automobiles on April 9th, but exempted auto parts.😏
Impacts of the Trade War
Price Increases: Imported automobiles, electronic products, etc. are likely to increase in price. If U.S. agricultural products are subject to tariffs imposed by China, the prices of items such as meat and edible oil may fluctuate.😫
Employment Market Impact: Enterprises relying on exports may lay off employees. For example, the manufacturing industry in China and European automobile factories are affected. In the United States, certain industries such as agriculture and retail also face pressure.😔
Financial Market Volatility: The global stock market has experienced increased short-term volatility. Investors have shifted to safe-haven assets such as gold and treasury bonds. The stock price of Tesla plummeted by 40% due to tariff policies.😱
Supply Chain Disruption: There may be delays in the delivery of chips and auto parts due to trade barriers. The supply of some imported pharmaceuticals and industrial raw materials may also be affected. The prices of some products on cross-border e-commerce platforms may increase, and the costs of purchasing agents and cross-border logistics will rise.😣
At present, the rise of gold is still driven by the demand for a safe haven. It remains uncertain whether the 104% tariff will actually be implemented. Once relations deteriorate, it will truly be bullish for gold again. In the short term, this is definitely something that needs to be closely monitored.🤔
This upward movement has led to the clearing of many traders' accounts or significant losses 😫. You can follow my signals and gradually recover your losses and achieve profitability 🌟.
Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.