XAUUSD forming the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months!Gold (XAUUSD) broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and is forming today the first 4H Death Cross since January 12. As we mentioned on our previous analysis, we expect the yellow metal to trade sideways on the medium-term and that involves the price testing the May 03 Low on a potential contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This will be a mirror trade of the previous Accumulation Phase (late 2023 - early 2024), when Gold made contact with the 1D MA100 on February 13 2024 and then immediately started the new Bullish Leg.
Our Target remains 2280.
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Xauusdsignals
Gold could drop under 2300In my written and video comments from last week, I mentioned that I expected gold to drop in a new downward leg and indicated the 2350-2360 range as the sell zone.
Indeed, after touching this zone twice, the price dropped and closed the week near the 2325 support level.
This week's opening saw a drop below this support, and at the time of writing, gold is trading at 2318.
I anticipate further downside movement and a drop below the important 2300 level.
My target is the 2285 support zone.
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsAfter the release of encouraging US economic data recently, Gold prices are showing signs of stabilization following consecutive days of losses triggered by the hawkish tone in the Fed Meeting Minute. FOMC Minutes revealed that Fed officials are uncertain about the level of policy restrictiveness and anticipate a prolonged wait before gaining confidence in sustainable inflation moving towards 2%.
While the US Durable Goods Orders exceeded expectations, a downward revision in the prior month's figures tempered the report’s impact, emboldening Gold buyers as evidenced by a surge in trading activity before the weekend. Improved US business activity is reducing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Moreover, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment poll displayed a modest uptick, though inflation sentiment remained mixed.
The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding at 4.461%, experiencing a slight dip of one-and-a-half basis points on Friday, putting pressure on the US Dollar.
Geopolitical tensions escalated as China initiated a second day of military exercises near Taiwan, and the decisions by Ireland, Norway, and Spain to recognize Palestine as an independent state have added volatility to markets, potentially fueling demand for Gold.
Given these recent changes, the question looms: will buyers or sellers come out on top in this shifting landscape?
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we take a detailed look at the XAUUSD chart, combining both technical and fundamental perspectives.
Our attention is fixed on the critical $2,350 level for the upcoming week, historically significant and poised to steer trading dynamics. A sustained momentum above this mark could fuel further buying interest, potentially paving the way for fresh highs. Conversely, a bearish tilt below $2,350 might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
Join me as we break down these factors and explore potential trading opportunities in the gold market. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with my latest analysis and insights.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets #GoldPrices #FedMeeting #EconomicData #GeopoliticalTensions📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Margin trading in forex, commodities, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments carries high risk and may not suit all investors. This content is for educational purposes only to assist with independent investment decisions and is provided for reference. Evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance carefully. Consult an independent financial advisor before making any investments. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and am not liable for any loss or damage from its use. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
key levels to focus on and trade on Gold.
Support 1: 2322 - 2328 area
Support 2: 2303 - 2308 area
Support 3: 2266 - 2286 area
Resistance 1: 2361 - 2364 area
Resistance 2: 2426 - 2450 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Gold (XAU/USD) ForecastThe provided chart is a daily candlestick chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on OANDA. Here’s a detailed analysis and summary of the chart:
Timeframe and Data:
- Timeframe: Daily (1D)
- Data Range: From early March 2024 to late May 2024
Price Analysis:
- Current Price: $2,355.55
- Price Movement: The price has shown an overall uptrend from March to mid-May 2024, followed by a consolidation and potential bearish reversal.
Technical Patterns and Indicators:
- Divergence Pattern:
- The chart indicates a divergence pattern, where the price has been making higher highs, but the volume has been decreasing. This divergence between price and volume suggests a weakening uptrend and potential bearish reversal.
- Resistance and Support Levels:
- Resistance Levels:
- A major resistance zone is marked around $2,397.52.
- The area just below the recent highs, approximately $2,350.00 to $2,370.00, is acting as an immediate resistance.
- Support Levels:
- Immediate support is marked around $2,300.00 to $2,320.00, which coincides with a previous consolidation area.
- The next significant support level is indicated at $2,283.39.
- Trendlines:
- An upward-sloping trendline can be seen connecting the higher lows from mid-March to mid-May 2024, suggesting an uptrend. However, the recent price action is testing this trendline.
- Another dotted trendline at the bottom highlights decreasing volume over time, reinforcing the divergence pattern.
- Sell Trigger and Target:
- A sell signal is suggested by the divergence pattern, indicating that gold may fall this week.
- Target Price: The sell target (TP) is marked at $2,280.00, suggesting a bearish move towards this level after breaking the immediate support.
Key Levels:
- Resistance Levels:
- Major resistance at around $2,397.52.
- Immediate resistance at approximately $2,350.00 to $2,370.00.
- Support Levels:
- Immediate support at around $2,300.00 to $2,320.00.
- Further support at the significant level of $2,283.39.
Trade Setup:
- Bearish Scenario: The divergence pattern suggests a potential bearish scenario. If the price breaks below the immediate support level of $2,300.00, a move towards the sell target at $2,280.00 is likely. The weakening volume adds to the bearish sentiment.
- Bullish Scenario: For a bullish outlook, the price needs to break and sustain above the resistance zone around $2,370.00 to $2,397.52. This could invalidate the divergence pattern and suggest further upside potential.
Conclusion:
The chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) indicates a potential bearish scenario with the formation of a divergence pattern, where higher prices are met with lower volumes. A break below the immediate support level of $2,300.00 could trigger a move towards the sell target at $2,280.00. Traders should look for confirmed breakouts from key levels to make informed trading decisions. The resistance zone around $2,350.00 to $2,397.52 and the support levels at $2,300.00 and $2,283.39 are crucial levels to watch.
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsIn this educational video, we delve into the recent surge in gold prices. There has been a notable uptick in gold prices, with XAU/USD recently surpassing the $2,400 mark, for the first time in almost a month. This surge in gold prices has piqued the interest of traders and investors, prompting speculation about the underlying factors driving this upward trend.
The relationship between gold prices and the 10-year US yield, which has remained steady at around 4.4%, has been a focal point for market observers. The cautious sentiment prevailing in the market in recent weeks has provided a supportive backdrop for XAU/USD, offering a degree of stability amidst ongoing uncertainties.
A key development that has influenced market dynamics is the release of softer-than-expected US inflation data for April. This has raised hopes among market participants for potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), fueling bullish momentum and hinting at potential shifts in market behavior in the near future.
However, the Fed's cautious approach to maintaining higher borrowing costs has introduced a note of uncertainty. The central bank's reluctance to rush into interest rate cuts has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and exert downward pressure on gold prices, as higher interest rates could dampen demand for the non-yielding asset.
In light of this recent twist in the perspective of the Fed, how will the market react? This video gives a detailed understanding of the behavioural patterns of market participants ahead of the upcoming week.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we take a detailed look at the XAUUSD chart, combining both technical and fundamental perspectives.
Our focus for the upcoming week is the crucial $2,400 zone, which has significant historical importance and is likely to influence trading activity. If gold maintains its momentum above this level, we could see continued buying interest and potentially new highs. On the other hand, if prices fall below $2,400 and selling pressure continues, it might indicate a shift back to bearish sentiment.
Join me as we break down these factors and explore potential trading opportunities in the gold market. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with my latest analysis and insights.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #NFP #ForexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Margin trading in forex, commodities, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments carries high risk and may not suit all investors. This content is for educational purposes only to assist with independent investment decisions and is provided for reference. Evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance carefully. Consult an independent financial advisor before making any investments. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and am not liable for any loss or damage from its use. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAUUSD Possible consolidation for the whole Summer.Gold (XAUUSD) is seeing strong selling this week following Monday's High, which was also an All Time High (ATH). The rejection took place very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started back in early 2023.
So far this is just a technical pull-back to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 29, and not a stronger correction. Both the price action though and the 1D MACD patterns, resemble the trading sequences of April - May 2023 and November - December 2023. After the Higher High top, they both turned sideways for 3 months and both hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The April - May 2023 even dropped lower but the September 2023 correction was done on fundamentals and not technical reasons.
As a result, we expect the next three months, i.e. the whole Summer to be at least a sideways price action/ consolidation, which by mid July may make contact with the 1D MA100. What this tells us is there will be opportunities to buy low and sell high in order to make profit on the medium-term.
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🥇Gold Analysis🥇➡️RR=2.00✅As I expected, Gold moved towards the 🟢 Support zone($2,373-$2,353) 🟢.👇
🔔I expect Gold to move towards the 🔴 Resistance zone($2,450-$2,426) 🔴 (At least).
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Key Levels 🥇
Gold dropped suddenly today after FOMC.
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels to watch.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Vertical Support 2: Falling trend line
Horizontal Structures
Resistance 1: 2426 - 2450 area
Support 1: 2360 - 2376 area
Support 2: 2323 - 2336 area
Support 3: 2303 - 2308 area
Support 4: 2265 - 2285 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD Short-term Channel Up.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a short-term Channel Up pattern since the May 03 Low, essentially throughout the whole month, and currently the price is consolidating below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Such consolidation within the 1H MA50 and the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) took place on every single Higher Low formation at the bottom of the Channel Up. At the same time, the 4H RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line.
The minimum Bullish Leg % within this Channel Up has been +2.44% and the maximum +3.35%. As a result, we turn bullish now on Gold with a 2465 - 2485 Target Zone.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Waiting For Breakout! 🥇
Gold closed this week, testing a resistance cluster based on the all-time high.
Because the trend is strongly bullish, probabilities will be high
that the market will violate that.
I will be waiting for a daily candle close above the underlined red area
to confirm a bullish continuation.
The market may go much higher then.
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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsIn this week's XAUUD analysis video, we delve into the recent surge in Gold prices amidst economic uncertainties in the United States. The previous week witnessed a notable uptick in Gold prices amidst the struggle of the US treasury to gain traction. Additionally, the University of Michigan survey revealed a pessimistic sentiment among Americans, with Consumer Sentiment plunging to its lowest level in six months.
As we dissect the market dynamics, Friday's sentiment data and weaker labor market figures underscored a gloomy outlook for the US economy. While fears of a significant economic slowdown lingered, market participants sought refuge in safe-haven assets, propelling the price of Gold higher.
Federal Reserve officials remained in the spotlight, with divergent views on monetary policy. Atlanta's Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained a hawkish stance, projecting just one rate cut in 2024. Conversely, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for policy stability, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts this year. Similarly, Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan dismissed the notion of interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari adopted a cautious "wait and see" approach towards future monetary policy decisions. Looking ahead, next week's US docket is set to unveil crucial inflation figures, retail sales data, building permits, and a slew of Fed speeches. These releases are anticipated to offer fresh insights into the direction of Fed reserve monetary policy.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a thorough analysis of the XAUUSD chart, integrating both technical and fundamental perspectives.
Our focus for the upcoming week centres around the $2,360 zone, which holds significant historical importance and is poised to influence next week's trading activity significantly. Sustained bullish momentum above this level could fuel continued buying interest, potentially driving prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,360 level, accompanied by ongoing selling pressure, may indicate a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
Join me as we unpack the implications of these factors and explore possible trading opportunities in the Gold market. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with my latest analysis and insights.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #NFP #ForexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Bullish Patterns 🥇
After a breakout of a solid horizontal resistance on a 4H,
Gold is retesting that today.
Approaching the underlined area, the price formed 2 bullish patterns:
a falling wedge pattern and a double bottom.
2 bullish breakouts: a violation of a trend line of the pattern and a neckline,
indicate the strength of the buyers.
We can anticipate more growth today at least to 2391
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26/3. Risk aversion has cooled, will gold fall sharply?
News: The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution clearly calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages.
Demands an immediate ceasefire during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which ends in two weeks, and the release of all hostages held by Hamas in an attack on southern Israel on October 7 last year.
The deadline ends on April 9
Gold has retreated due to the impact of geopolitics. The lowest level reached 2167.
After the start of the Asian session, gold prices continued to impact upward. This proves that the bullish trend in the market is still relatively strong. Currently located at the 2172 line. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar fluctuated and fell from highs. The largest hedge funds may also abandon the United States and invest in Europe. It has also been pointed out that the US dollar is overvalued. The U.S. dollar index is currently above 104. Although the short-term ceasefire in Gaza has reduced risk aversion for gold. Not conducive to rising gold prices. But the overvaluation of the U.S. dollar is undoubtedly a support for gold.
Technically, gold has shown a bullish trend. Although there is no news boost, technical support is still strong. Observe the 2165-2162 line below. If the upper position stabilizes at 2175, then the probability of rising to above 2183 is very high. Of course, this also requires the U.S. dollar to take advantage of the trend.
In terms of trading, buying low is still the main trend today. The entire transaction is based on actual conditions.
2169-2166 buy
TP2177-2183
SL2159
Transactions are for reference only. If you have any questions please leave me a message. Like following live trading signals. Remember to stay tuned.
Is there still a chance for short sellers to make a profit?Judging from the recent trend of gold, there is no doubt that the buying power is stronger, so overall gold maintains a bullish pattern.However, in the short-term structure, gold also falls sharply during its rise, which brings considerable difficulties to our transactions.I believe that in the past two days in gold trading, many people should have lost money because of hitting SL. The characteristics of the current gold market are very obvious. The bulls will not stop, but the shorts will not die. During the rise, gold will also suddenly fall in the short-term structure, leaving us unprepared.
Gold currently reaches its highest level near 2388, which is only one step away from 2400. According to the current structure of gold, it seems that it is certain to hit the 2400 level. So do gold shorts still have a chance? I think gold shorts should still have a chance. Gold is currently trading near the 2388 position, and the rise has slowed down. It faces resistance in the 2390-2395 area in the short term; and gold has been too hasty in the short-term rise, so I have reason to believe that,gold still needs a correction after hitting the resistance in the 2390-2395 area. Only after it is confirmed that it has stepped back on the support can it be more conducive for gold to rise and hit the 2400 target.
Moreover, gold has gone through a violent ups and downs and has completely wiped out all short positions. When gold is generally extremely bullish, gold shorts may also counterattack in the short-term structure, and the market will harvest more funds. Therefore, it is not that there are no opportunities for gold shorts, so I will still continue to short gold near the 2389-2390 position, waiting for gold to step back in the short-term structure, and first focus on the 2375-2370 area support below.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Very Bullish Setup 🥇
I see a very nice bullish setup on Gold:
After a test of a recently broken daily structure,
the price broke and closed above a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern
on an hourly time frame.
I expect a pullback now.
Goal - 2354
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XAUUSD Ideal level to start selling.Gold (XAUUSD) is being rejected since Friday right at the top of the emerging Channel Down and that is a Lower High. Even though Gold has officially started a new long-term Bull Cycle, it doesn't mean that the market won't deliver medium-term corrections that are technically much needed in order to get the trend going.
Quite the contrary, the current Bullish Megaphone resembles the pattern of November 2022 - May 2023, which after holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) half-way through, it eventually topped and broke below it, testing after that even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We will not speculate on such a long horizon but on the medium-term we do see this Channel Down or better yet Bearish Leg of the Bullish Megaphone eventually breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing the 0.382 Fibonacci as part of a natural and healthy correction that will attract long-term buyers again and resume the bullish trend.
As a result, we turn bearih again today, targeting 2200 (Fib 0.382).
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XAUUSD: Go long in the 2358-2352 range
Gold hits the resistance level, and the indicator needs to be repaired. Go short first and pay attention to the support near 2352. Go long if it does not fall below. The rebound resistance is near 2368-2373. If it cannot reach the breakthrough, go short again, with the target near 2343-2337
GOLD (XAUUSD): Get Ready For Breakout 🥇
Gold had a very bullish end of this week.
The market closed, attempting to violate a significant daily resistance cluster.
Your strong bullish signal next week, will be a bullish breakout of
2361 level and a daily candle close above that.
It will initiate a strong bullish continuation of the market
at least to 2391 level.
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