Gold near important support zoneOANDA:XAUUSD has had a rough start to the year, experiencing a significant drop of approximately 500 pips from its peak to its lowest point. On Friday, the price exhibited high volatility, solidifying the 2060 zone as a confirmed resistance level.
Currently, the price stands at 2028 and is approaching a crucial support zone around 2020. It is imperative for the bulls to successfully uphold this level to sustain the price within a medium-term upward trend. Failure to do so may lead to a potential continuation to the downside, with a target set at the 1980 zone.
Xauusdsignals
XAUUSD Bear Flag on 4H.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually did get rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci level as per our last week analysis (see chart below):
This is so far consistent with all previous All Time Highs since August 2020 and our long-term target remains 1975. On the shorter term though we see a quick sell opportunity following today's bounce after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, as it is consistent with all such break-outs (red ellipses) within the 2-month Channel Up.
Every Bearish Leg of this Channel Up declined by more than -4.00% but on our short-term horizon we will settle for a 2020 target, which will be a 1D MA50 (red trend-line) test. See also how consistent the 4H MACD sequences are.
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XAUUSD : How will gold fluctuate in 2024 ?Gold has had wild swings in 2023, rising about 15% from the beginning of the year to May, then falling 13% in October before rising nearly 19% to create a record high in early December. Currently, there are many factors that may affect and cause gold prices to continue to increase in Q1, 2024.
Weakness of the USD
Gold has an inverse relationship with US government bond yields as well as the US dollar. Therefore, when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens, precious metals often increase in price as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.
Although the Fed has not yet ruled out another rate hike, the market has already decided that interest rates will fall next year. This is shown by the sharp decrease in government bond yields and the USD. Therefore, even in the absence of fresh bullish momentum, the USD downtrend should still keep XAU/USD supported.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for gold's price increase is still quite complicated after gold increased sharply at the end of the year, making the current Risk-Reward ratio not too impressive.
Therefore, gold is likely to correct slightly before continuing its current bullish structure, with the first level of support located around the $2,010 area, beyond that at the $1,956 threshold.
On the upside, current resistance levels lie at $2,075 and if bullish momentum increases gold prices could return to the record high of $2,146.79.
XAUUSD- XAUUSD trading strategy, Gold trendWorld gold prices turned down this morning with spot gold down 10 USD to 2,030.2 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,043.3 USD/ounce, down 8.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The world gold market was quiet in the early morning trading session this morning as traders waited for a series of economic data at the end of the week to get new clues about the US Central Bank's monetary policy roadmap.
RJO Futures senior market strategist Daniel Pavilonis forecasts that gold prices will stabilize above $2,000 an ounce and mainly trade at higher levels considering geopolitical risks in the market, including US elections next year, which could prompt money managers to add gold to their portfolios.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) said its strongest monetary tightening cycle in the past four decades was over and interest rate cuts would take place in 2024. However, the Chairman Atlanta Fed branch Raphael Bostic gave the opposite view that the US economy is still strong and there is no rush to make a decision to cut interest rates. This official said that policymakers still need "several months" to have enough data and is confident that inflation will continue to go down and the first interest rate cuts are expected to begin in the third quarter. .
Meanwhile, according to the FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in about a 79% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in March.
XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical rejection level. Strong Sell.Gold (XAUUSD) hasn't so far diverged from the previous two ATH peak patterns (March 08 2022 and August 07 2020) as following this Cycle's new All Time High, it got heavily sold to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a price rebound.
This rebound sequence is now approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the Lower Highs of the previous peak patterns were formed. The price got immediately rejected to at least the previous Low (in our case 1975). In 2022 the sell-off continued immediately, while in 2020 it was more structured and gave another Lower High to sell.
As a result, we expect Gold to reverse soon within the 2070 - 2100 range and target at least 1975 by the end of January 2024.
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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsFollowing the US Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, the market experienced a shift in sentiment when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams expressed reservations about rate cut expectations, emphasizing the central bank's commitment to maintaining inflation at its 2% target. This development led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, providing some optimism for the US Dollar.
As we navigate through crucial macroeconomic data, including the Fed meeting, the market is processing this information, with the upcoming week poised to influence the direction of price action as we approach the end of the year. It is anticipated that the trends observed over the past six weeks will likely continue to year-end, albeit at a more subdued pace.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $2,030 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action stays below the $2,030 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,960 zone. Generally, Gold remains bullish following a strong rebound from $1,970 on Wednesday. The pair, however, needs to breach the $2,050 resistance area to confirm the bullish view.
Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Gold could break above resistanceIn my Monday analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD , I emphasized the continuity of the medium-term bullish trend. However, to solidify this assessment, a decisive break above the resistance level within the consolidation was deemed necessary.
Over the subsequent days, the price exhibited a contained range between established support and resistance levels. Notably, there was discernible upward pressure from the bulls, and an ascending triangle took shape on lower time frames.
To confirm the bullish outlook, a clear breakthrough above the 2050 level is crucial, as previously mentioned. The associated price target for this pattern stands at 2080. My bullish sentiment remains valid as long as the price of XAUUSD stays above the support line of the triangle.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Technical Outlook 🥇
After a confirmed breakout of an intraday horizontal demand cluster,
Gold started to recover steadily within an expanding wedge pattern.
We saw a strong rejection from the broken area.
Our next bearish signal will be a bearish breakout of the support of the wedge
with a 4H candle close below that.
It will push the market at least 2010 level.
If you haven't shorted yet, patiently wait for a breakout.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook Explained 🏅
Gold nicely respected a horizontal daily supply area.
The price formed a bearish engulfing candle on a daily
and violated a support line of a horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
I believe that the price may drop lower next week.
Next supports: 2010 / 2000
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XAUUSD: Channel Down sell signal as last May.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
The All Time High (ATH) candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is a Channel Up on the medium-term, which last week broke below its bottom but found Support exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you see on the chart, there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, since the price has already brokne below the current Channel Up and seems to have been rejected on an emerging (dotted) Channel Down as in May 2023, we expect this time to break the 1D MA50 and Support 1 and extend towards Support 2. We are bearish, targeting 1930.
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Gold's Price Odyssey: From ATH to Reversals – Where Next?The past two weeks have been marked by significant volatility in the price of $OANDA:XAUUSD. Initially, Gold experienced a strong spike, reaching a new all-time high at 2150. This was followed by a robust reversal, causing the price to drop below 2,000 and breach several crucial support levels. To add to the complexity, the price surged once again last week, reclaiming levels above important resistance, only to stabilize within the familiar range of 2020 to 2050.
These tumultuous market movements raise a pertinent question: What is the medium-term direction?
On one hand, the overall trend remains bullish, and as long as the 2010-2015 zone remains intact, this trend is likely to persist.
On the other hand, a substantial reversal from the all-time high suggests the possibility of a medium-term trend change.
In conclusion, I will closely monitor the specified support and resistance levels. A decisive break above or below these levels could provide more clarity, at least in theory.
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Scenarios Explained 🥇
US fundamentals are coming in 30 minutes.
Here are the potential scenarios for Gold.
Bullish Scenario
The market is currently testing 2041 resistance.
If the market breaks and closes above that
a bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2070.
Bearish Scenario
Gold is currently consolidating within a narrow
horizontal range on an hourly time frame.
If the price breaks and closes below its support - 2029,
a bearish movement will be anticipated at least to 2015.
Wait for a breakout and then follow the market.
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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold price retreated and closed at the $2,000 mark for the first time since November 24, extending its losses. This decline follows the latest US employment report, indicating an improving labor market. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 199K jobs, exceeding forecasts, while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.7%. Additionally, University of Michigan (UoM) data showed increased optimism among American households about the economy and a downward revision of inflation expectations. Market focus turns to the upcoming US inflation report and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Inflation is expected to remain at 3.1% annually, with no change in monthly inflation, while the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to stay at 4% unchanged YoY and 0.3% monthly. Traders anticipate the US central bank to maintain current interest rates. As we gear up for a busy week filled with high-impact events from the US economic docket, how should we prepare?
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $2,000 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action drops below the $2,000 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,960 zone.
Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
XAUUSD H8 - Long SignalWe were trading south of that $2000/oz price during recent trade, pulling as low as $1975/oz. Again, upside moves witnessed follow FED outlook, a lot of the pairs we follow and trade revolve around the USD and thus a soft USD means ***USD climb higher.
Still focussed on that $2000/oz support price, the D1 trend is still valid and pointing to the upside, hopefully a healthy correction from 1975 to 2040 sits us in that 2000 region for potential longs.
XAUUSDDear Traders,
Gold has shown extreme bearish momentum since last Tuesday, institutional buyers took the price all time high and dumped it. Price will continue the drop either from the current area or from 2020. Our target is 1930 region which will be 700 pips.
show some love if you agree with the idea and good luck :)
Gold- CPI could bring a new local lowOn my Monday's OANDA:XAUUSD analysis I wrote than there is a high chance of a change of trend in Gold's price and this remain the case.
After breaking under the ascending trend line and the important 2k figure, Gold has made a local low at 1973 and, in my opinion, more loses will come.
Yesterday's spike up at 1996 offers resistance and rallies to that zone should be sold
The target is 1940 zone resistance and negation comes with a daily close above 2010-2015 zone
The market is facing expectations that gold will decline sharplyGold markets are quiet ahead of the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of this policy meeting. The market is predicting about a 45% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in March 2024.
Gold speculators are hoping for a series of important economic data to be released soon. Important US inflation data will also be released this week.
Additionally, traders will keep a close eye on the US Treasury note and bond auctions on Monday and Tuesday.
The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank all hold monetary policy meetings on December 14.
Gold price forecast
Chris Gaffney, president of global markets at EverBank, said the market is on edge with interest rate expectations. The only risk to precious metals prices next year is the Fed having to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
Daniel Pavilonis, commodities broker at RJO Futures, said interest rates may pause adjustment. The precious metal will move sideways within the $2,000/ounce range this week.
Entry sell 1990-2000
TP 197x - 195x
SL 2015
XAUUSD 1D Symmetry giving a strong break-out sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
That Monday candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is still a Channel Up on the medium-term, with the price approaching its bottom.
As you might have already observed there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, if the price breaks below the current Channel Up, we expect not to stop on the 1D MA50 or Support 1 but rather extend towards Support 2. That will be a break-out sell signal for us, targeting 1930.
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