Gold could rise to 2060Analyzing OANDA:XAUUSD in light of the most recent data, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the previous month exceeded expectations. It recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, surpassing the anticipated 3.2%. Additionally, the core gauge outperformed predictions, reaching 3.9%, surpassing consensus estimates by one-tenth of a percent.
Initially, this data triggered a decline in the price of Gold, but this downturn was brief, and the price swiftly rebounded back into its familiar range. Furthermore, a closer look at the chart reveals that the price, once again, reversed from the 2020 confluence support zone, which, in my opinion, contributes to a bullish scenario.
As I discussed in yesterday's post, confirmation of the reversal still requires a break above 2060. In such a scenario, the upward movement could intensify toward the 2060 resistance, with a high probability of extending to 2080.
In summary, my bullish sentiment has strengthened compared to yesterday. In my view, purchasing on dips against yesterday's low seems to be a prudent strategy.
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
Xauusdsignals
Gold- Levels to watch for the next 500+ pips moveAs previously discussed, OANDA:XAUUSD had a rough start to the year, experiencing a decline of approximately 600 pips. However, bulls successfully halted this descent precisely at the support zone from 2020.
Since reaching Monday's low, the price has entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating between distinct levels of support and resistance.
This prompts a crucial question for swing traders targeting moves of 500 pips or more: What is the likely direction from here?
On one hand, there is evidence of a reversal from support. Considering the overall bullish trend, one could anticipate a resumption of the trend with a potential test of the 2080 resistance and, possibly, a surpassing of the 2100 mark.
It's essential to note, however, that achieving this scenario requires confirmation, specifically a clear break above the 2040 level.
On the other hand, a breach below the 2020 support exposes the recent lows around 1980. More significantly, such a move would signify the establishment of a lower high in the start of the year price and, potentially lead to a further decline to 1930.
P.S: At this moment I hold a buy trade with only 50% of my usual volume and, as explain, I am waiting for a clearer picture
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
Gold- Reversal to the upside is loomingIn my yesterday's comment, I said that OANDA:XAUUSD could have found a bottom in 2020 important support.
After a spike in 2040 local resistance during yesterday's session, the drive dropped again, but this time stopped at 2024 making a higher low.
Although the falling trend line that started at the beginning of the year is not broker to the upside yet, there are high chances for this to happen today.
I maintain my bullish bias on Gold as long as the price stays above Monday's low.
XAUUSD : US inflation report will boost market trendWhile the US central bank turned more cautious at its December meeting, markets ignored this and overpriced a cut for a still resilient economy. strengthening and inflation remains high.
To better understand the Fed's next moves, traders should keep an eye on the US economic calendar this week, paying particular attention to the December CPI report on Thursday morning.
Although core inflation is expected to have cooled last month, headline inflation is seen recovering, rising from 3.1% to 3.2%, which is not good for policymakers and certainly will negatively impact market psychology.
For gold prices to regain upward momentum in the near future, the latest US CPI data needs to show signs that prices are gradually stabilizing. Otherwise, the Fed may continue to delay its interest rate reduction cycle.
In the event of an unexpected increase in inflation reports, the market may raise the valuation of interest rate increases, causing government bond yields to skyrocket. Gold could experience stronger downward corrections in the coming days and weeks.
Gold continued to decline on Tuesday after slipping below the key support zone at $2,050 - $2,045 last week. Sustaining prices below this zone could reinforce bearish pressure, pushing gold to its 50-day SMA near $2,010, then to $1,990.
On the other hand, if the buyers return, resistance will appear at $2,045-$2,050. A break above this level could push the price to $2,085, and then to its highest peak on record.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan For Next Week Explained 🥇
After setting a local higher high, Gold retraced.
It is currently testing a wide horizontal demand area on a daily.
To buy the market with a confirmation,
watch a bullish flag pattern on a 4H.
Bullish breakout of its upper boundary will be your strong bullish confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 2075 then.
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XAUUSD Target hit, approaching bottom of Channel Up and 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) followed the Channel Up 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection pattern and as per our last week's idea (January 04, see chart below), it hit today our 2020 Target:
The price is now only a few pips away from hitting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) which has been untouched since October 13 2023 and near which both previous Higher Lows on the Channel's bottom (December 13 2023 and November 12 2023) where priced.
As a result that would be a buy opportunity with a tolerance extension as low as 2003, which would represent a -4.08% from the top, symmetrical to both previous two Bearish Legs. As long as the Channel Up Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will stay bullish, targeting the 4H MA50 at 2040. If the bottom trend-line breaks, we will take the relatively small loss and open a sell instead, targeting Support 1 at 1972.50. The 1D MA20 (yellow trend-line) is the final supporting trend-line before Gold gets a confirmed bearish reversal on the long-term horizon.
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Gold near important support zoneOANDA:XAUUSD has had a rough start to the year, experiencing a significant drop of approximately 500 pips from its peak to its lowest point. On Friday, the price exhibited high volatility, solidifying the 2060 zone as a confirmed resistance level.
Currently, the price stands at 2028 and is approaching a crucial support zone around 2020. It is imperative for the bulls to successfully uphold this level to sustain the price within a medium-term upward trend. Failure to do so may lead to a potential continuation to the downside, with a target set at the 1980 zone.
XAUUSD Bear Flag on 4H.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually did get rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci level as per our last week analysis (see chart below):
This is so far consistent with all previous All Time Highs since August 2020 and our long-term target remains 1975. On the shorter term though we see a quick sell opportunity following today's bounce after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, as it is consistent with all such break-outs (red ellipses) within the 2-month Channel Up.
Every Bearish Leg of this Channel Up declined by more than -4.00% but on our short-term horizon we will settle for a 2020 target, which will be a 1D MA50 (red trend-line) test. See also how consistent the 4H MACD sequences are.
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XAUUSD : How will gold fluctuate in 2024 ?Gold has had wild swings in 2023, rising about 15% from the beginning of the year to May, then falling 13% in October before rising nearly 19% to create a record high in early December. Currently, there are many factors that may affect and cause gold prices to continue to increase in Q1, 2024.
Weakness of the USD
Gold has an inverse relationship with US government bond yields as well as the US dollar. Therefore, when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens, precious metals often increase in price as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.
Although the Fed has not yet ruled out another rate hike, the market has already decided that interest rates will fall next year. This is shown by the sharp decrease in government bond yields and the USD. Therefore, even in the absence of fresh bullish momentum, the USD downtrend should still keep XAU/USD supported.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for gold's price increase is still quite complicated after gold increased sharply at the end of the year, making the current Risk-Reward ratio not too impressive.
Therefore, gold is likely to correct slightly before continuing its current bullish structure, with the first level of support located around the $2,010 area, beyond that at the $1,956 threshold.
On the upside, current resistance levels lie at $2,075 and if bullish momentum increases gold prices could return to the record high of $2,146.79.
XAUUSD- XAUUSD trading strategy, Gold trendWorld gold prices turned down this morning with spot gold down 10 USD to 2,030.2 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,043.3 USD/ounce, down 8.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The world gold market was quiet in the early morning trading session this morning as traders waited for a series of economic data at the end of the week to get new clues about the US Central Bank's monetary policy roadmap.
RJO Futures senior market strategist Daniel Pavilonis forecasts that gold prices will stabilize above $2,000 an ounce and mainly trade at higher levels considering geopolitical risks in the market, including US elections next year, which could prompt money managers to add gold to their portfolios.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) said its strongest monetary tightening cycle in the past four decades was over and interest rate cuts would take place in 2024. However, the Chairman Atlanta Fed branch Raphael Bostic gave the opposite view that the US economy is still strong and there is no rush to make a decision to cut interest rates. This official said that policymakers still need "several months" to have enough data and is confident that inflation will continue to go down and the first interest rate cuts are expected to begin in the third quarter. .
Meanwhile, according to the FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in about a 79% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in March.
XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical rejection level. Strong Sell.Gold (XAUUSD) hasn't so far diverged from the previous two ATH peak patterns (March 08 2022 and August 07 2020) as following this Cycle's new All Time High, it got heavily sold to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a price rebound.
This rebound sequence is now approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the Lower Highs of the previous peak patterns were formed. The price got immediately rejected to at least the previous Low (in our case 1975). In 2022 the sell-off continued immediately, while in 2020 it was more structured and gave another Lower High to sell.
As a result, we expect Gold to reverse soon within the 2070 - 2100 range and target at least 1975 by the end of January 2024.
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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsFollowing the US Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, the market experienced a shift in sentiment when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams expressed reservations about rate cut expectations, emphasizing the central bank's commitment to maintaining inflation at its 2% target. This development led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, providing some optimism for the US Dollar.
As we navigate through crucial macroeconomic data, including the Fed meeting, the market is processing this information, with the upcoming week poised to influence the direction of price action as we approach the end of the year. It is anticipated that the trends observed over the past six weeks will likely continue to year-end, albeit at a more subdued pace.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $2,030 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then a continued buying pressure above this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if price action stays below the $2,030 level and selling pressure persists below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,960 zone. Generally, Gold remains bullish following a strong rebound from $1,970 on Wednesday. The pair, however, needs to breach the $2,050 resistance area to confirm the bullish view.
Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Gold could break above resistanceIn my Monday analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD , I emphasized the continuity of the medium-term bullish trend. However, to solidify this assessment, a decisive break above the resistance level within the consolidation was deemed necessary.
Over the subsequent days, the price exhibited a contained range between established support and resistance levels. Notably, there was discernible upward pressure from the bulls, and an ascending triangle took shape on lower time frames.
To confirm the bullish outlook, a clear breakthrough above the 2050 level is crucial, as previously mentioned. The associated price target for this pattern stands at 2080. My bullish sentiment remains valid as long as the price of XAUUSD stays above the support line of the triangle.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Technical Outlook 🥇
After a confirmed breakout of an intraday horizontal demand cluster,
Gold started to recover steadily within an expanding wedge pattern.
We saw a strong rejection from the broken area.
Our next bearish signal will be a bearish breakout of the support of the wedge
with a 4H candle close below that.
It will push the market at least 2010 level.
If you haven't shorted yet, patiently wait for a breakout.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook Explained 🏅
Gold nicely respected a horizontal daily supply area.
The price formed a bearish engulfing candle on a daily
and violated a support line of a horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
I believe that the price may drop lower next week.
Next supports: 2010 / 2000
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XAUUSD: Channel Down sell signal as last May.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
The All Time High (ATH) candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is a Channel Up on the medium-term, which last week broke below its bottom but found Support exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you see on the chart, there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, since the price has already brokne below the current Channel Up and seems to have been rejected on an emerging (dotted) Channel Down as in May 2023, we expect this time to break the 1D MA50 and Support 1 and extend towards Support 2. We are bearish, targeting 1930.
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Gold's Price Odyssey: From ATH to Reversals – Where Next?The past two weeks have been marked by significant volatility in the price of $OANDA:XAUUSD. Initially, Gold experienced a strong spike, reaching a new all-time high at 2150. This was followed by a robust reversal, causing the price to drop below 2,000 and breach several crucial support levels. To add to the complexity, the price surged once again last week, reclaiming levels above important resistance, only to stabilize within the familiar range of 2020 to 2050.
These tumultuous market movements raise a pertinent question: What is the medium-term direction?
On one hand, the overall trend remains bullish, and as long as the 2010-2015 zone remains intact, this trend is likely to persist.
On the other hand, a substantial reversal from the all-time high suggests the possibility of a medium-term trend change.
In conclusion, I will closely monitor the specified support and resistance levels. A decisive break above or below these levels could provide more clarity, at least in theory.
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Scenarios Explained 🥇
US fundamentals are coming in 30 minutes.
Here are the potential scenarios for Gold.
Bullish Scenario
The market is currently testing 2041 resistance.
If the market breaks and closes above that
a bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2070.
Bearish Scenario
Gold is currently consolidating within a narrow
horizontal range on an hourly time frame.
If the price breaks and closes below its support - 2029,
a bearish movement will be anticipated at least to 2015.
Wait for a breakout and then follow the market.
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