XAUUSD Channel-to-Channel Cycles. New Bull or 1700 next?This is not the first time we chart these Cycles on Gold (XAUUSD), as we did our latest study on September 27 (see chart below) and we were quick to catch the break-out sell on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line):
This time though, we add the Channel element as well as the unique US10Y/DXY ratio and the mix proves to be quite accurate. As you see every Channel Down (red) is formed on a rising US10Y/DXY ratio, which is naturally expected as both the US10Y and DXY are negatively (inversely) correlated to Gold. Similarly every Channel Up (green) is formed while the US10Y/DXY ratio gets neutralized.
Right now the ratio is on the rise, hence the Channel Down on Gold, and the price hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 11 months (since November 07 2022) and immediately reacted with a bounce.
At the same time, the 1W RSI hit the top of the 2-year Support Zone. Every time the RSI hit this Zone, while the US10Y/DXY ratio was rising, Gold started to form its market bottom. The only time this RSI Support Zone got hit and Gold didn't rise was when the ratio was declining (July 11 2022). Right now we have the conditions for a market bottom as the ratio is rising.
Next week will be critical as if it closes the candle in green and the RSI reverses, then we can see a 1-month bottom formation that will lead to the new Channel Up. If not, we can't rule a price as low as 1700.
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Xauusdsignals
XAUUSD: Weekly earnings summary
This week ended perfectly, earning 50,000, exceeding the expected target, the main reason is to seize the opportunity to fall all the way, continue to maintain next week, I wish everyone a happy weekend!
If you are confused about trading, please join me, I believe you will have a great harvest!
Gold: shocks remain unchanged
Gold is now maintaining its bottom and oscillating sideways. The decline has temporarily come to an end. If it is no longer weak, it will become stronger! Moreover, the release of the big non-agricultural data in the U.S. is expected to lead to a skyrocketing rebound! The US market continues to be bullish relying on the support of 1815!
Plan your trade, trade your plan! The current decline in gold is obviously not strong enough! And it will no longer break new lows! The U.S. large non-agricultural data is expected to be similar to the small non-agricultural data, and will start a rebound trend!
Long, the U.S. market relies on the support of 1815 to be bullish on lows. The upper side will pay attention to the pressure of 1833. If the 1833 position is broken, it will prove that the market has turned and the rise has begun!
Gold is over 1815, stop loss is 1807, target is 1833.
Gold- Before NFP and beyond technical analysisLet's think beyond technical analysis and consider what Gold is likely to do.
We all see it's at a support level, and we're expecting a correction after a 1000 pip drop. In the long term, it's in a descending channel, and to reach the channel's resistance, it needs to rise to 1880, which is 600 pips away.
So, two questions arise:
Is it that simple for Gold to stay put for three days so everyone can buy and profit?
Secondly, who's selling if everyone sees this? Are they blind, or do they want to lose?
With that in mind, I believe Gold will continue to decline, and I have two scenarios for NFP:
1. A spike up and then a drop below support.
2. A direct drop below support.
Of course, I could be wrong.
Gold- Drop- Base- Drop pattern?After the break under 1915 important confluence support that I've spoken about, XauUsd dropped like a stone, with a drop counting 1000 pips.
Although most of us expected some correction after, Gold started to consolidate instead and bulls were unable to elevate the price to confirm the last broken support level at 1855 (at least so far)
The price action from Tuesday looks like it wants to form a "drop-base-drop" pattern and a break of 1810 zone would confirm this scenario.
In such an instance traders could expect a new wave of strong selling and the new led down could lead to a drop at 1730 zone support.
In any case, Gold remains strongly bearish as long as the price is under 1855
GOLD, 213 pip OANDA:XAUUSD
Hey there dear attendants
It will be a pleasure if you could brace me with your supportive likes & comments if you would have tested my strategies
Lets see what happened and break the leg 😍
Hope to benefit for all
So excited 😝 looking forward from hearing from you
Wish the best
is not financial advice
Gold: Today’s Strategy
The downward trend of gold has not changed, and operations continue to be bearish at high altitudes! The rebound is still a short-selling opportunity! The US market position of 1824 continues to be empty, and the target position of 1800 below remains unchanged!
Gold continues to fall. Although there is a rebound during the decline, the strength of the rebound is very weak! This time gold's rebound should fall again after encountering resistance from hourly Bollinger upper track pressure!
Therefore, the U.S. market continues to be short and bearish. The pressure position of the rebound in the European market, 1828, is also a short-selling position. The U.S. market is directly short! Just continue to be bearish!
XAUUSD D1 - Long Signal XAUUSD D1
We have sold off an absolute monstrous 1250 points in total from 1940 down to 1815, actively 1150 points as we have bounced somewhat 100.
Support price of $1805 would be the lowest price gold has trading during the whole of 2023. We have have a huge bearish selloff without any relief rally.
A bounce from support price of $1805 could be amazing play, especially if NFP, AE and UE figures compliment this. We wont know until Friday though, speculation and preparation.
XAUUSD Time to see the first short-term rebound.On last week's Gold (XAUUSD) analysis we called it was time to finally break below the 1W MA50 (chart below) and it did in spectacular fashion, already hitting the 1850 target:
The price now almost hit the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and being near the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down, the conditions for a short-term (at least) rebound emerge. The 1D RSI hit 20.00, the lowest it has been in almost 7 years (since December 14 2016) and that enhances the probabilities of a rebound. The current Channel Down resembles that of 2022 and as you see all rebounds to Lower Highs hit at least either the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). We are therefore targeting the new 0.5 Fib at 1885 for the moment, unless the price hits the 1D MA50 first.
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Navigating Gold's Strong Bearish Move: Is a Correction up next?As explained in my Sunday video, Gold is extremely bearish and the price could fall to 1805-1810 support.
Indeed, XAU/USD started the month and the week on a bearish note and is currently trading 300 pips lower compared to Friday's closing price.
Looking at the posted chart we can see that this is already the 7Th red day (not closed yet) and after the break under 1915 support, the price dropped almost without correction. Just an intraday spike on Friday.
All in all, we are in a very strong bear move
However, considering the magnitude of the drop and the proximity of an important support, a correction could follow.
Aggressive traders could look to buy in the support zone.
Keep in mind though that everyone is expecting a correction and a spike under 1800 to clear stops is not out of the question.
On the much safer side, sell rallies should be the strategy.
Gold- 500 pips target hit! Now what?As you know, I was bearish Gold since Tuesday and argued that, if XauUsd breaks under 1915 zone support, we could assist a 500 pips drop.
The "major target for bears" was hit yesterday and now we may wonder what's next.
Technically, the structure is strongly bearish, however, considering the magnitude of the recent drop, a correction to the upside is probable. Also, the fact that is Friday adds to this possibility, considering a lot of take profits.
In conclusion, 1855 technical support could offer good buying opportunities for a rise and test of recently broken support at 1885.
Also, the congestion from 1875 could offer resistance.
Best of luck and happy trading!
Mihai Iacob
Gold prices have reached lows, will they rise again?As we expected, we shorted to 1885 in the last period and made a profit. My next suggestion is to go long. Gold has fallen to its lowest point in the short term and may have entered a rebound period.
XAUUSD
Buy 1885
TP 1895
SL 1880
Good luck and happy trading.
"Gold's Battle at 1944: A Crossroads"#XAUUSD On September 1st, encountered a formidable resistance barrier at 1950 and subsequently began its descent toward the established support level at 1885. Interestingly, the downward trajectory was interrupted as gold found a reversal point around the 1900 mark. Currently, the precious metal is in the process of retesting the 1944 resistance level.
Should gold successfully breach the resistance at 1944, it could signal a potential bullish move, with the price poised to ascend towards higher levels, possibly reaching 1985. However, if the resistance at 1944 holds firm, there remains the possibility of a downward correction in the gold market.
Sell Entry - 1942
TP1 - 1900
TP2 - 1885
Buy Entry - 1946
TP1 - 1980
TP2 - 2015
SL - Join Our Channel
XAUUSD Time to finally break below the 1W MA50? How bad is it?Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of December 26 2022. Last time it was nearly hit (February 20 - 27 2023) it supported the pull-back emphatically, and initiated a strong rebound.
Almost 5 months ago (May 4), when everyone in the market was jubilant about Gold's new All Time High, we warned the community (see chart below) of the high probability of a 1W MA50 correction if the the 1W candle failed to close above the 2075 Resistance, which is holding since the August 2020 High:
This is what happened as the price closed below the ATH Resistance, the 1W RSI got rejected exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line (additional sell signal), hit the initial 1975 target and broke below the 1D MA50. In the proccess, it turned the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) into Resistance and formed the Lower Highs trend-line that dictate the course of the downtrend.
This development (Lower Highs on top of a 1D MA100 Resistance) has been the characteristic of both previous corrections after fails to close above the 2075 level (August 2020, March 2022). On both sequences, Gold found the first Zone of Support within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci range. Our targets, always in the event of a close below the 1W MA50, are firmly placed (1850 and 1800) based on that Zone (we call it the High Volatility Zone) but this time is slightly different as we have to acknowledge the presence of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 1812.50 and rising continuously.
However the 1W MA200 was breached and the price even stayed below it for almost 2 months, last September (2022). This more than justifies a 1800 projection but best to pursue it with less risk after a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA200.
During this 3-year pattern, the bottom is already priced when the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 mark. Right now it is marginally on it but with no signs of reversing. On both previous corrections the week that followed the 1W MACD Bullish Cross, the price also broke above the 1D MA100. If it breaks before that, it could be a sign of an early bearish invalidation.
Additional relevant material:
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XAUUSD Signal!!! RSI Divergence!!!Hello Everyone. I want share my idea about gold price action which will be signal for next week.
I know market is closing but i love look at market when its quiet and we had all strong and real moves.
I add some indicator which show me price momentum, today in Asia session started with long which actually tested strong daily resistance (which was broke but seller were strong and they dropped price) after end of Asia session, London session started with short but it was not aggressive move and stopped to Asia demand zone where new your session made liquidity test this area second time, showed reversal movement and RSI momentum indicator agreed that and this everything happened in Fibonacci High volume area.
This all information gave me confirmation of short signal which is perfect for day traders. i think it will retest 1913 daily support area and catch this retest, then i will wait price action.
Here is my setup for this signal.
Open position - 1925.
Stop loss - 1932.
Take Profit - 1913.
Manage your risk!!! Good luck!!!
XAUUSD Ichimoku supported within the Triangle.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after a Lower Highs trend-line at the top of 2-month Triangle. The MACD on the 1D time-frame has formed a Bullish Cross and as the green Ichimoku Cloud turned green, it waves a buy signal. Every time the Ichimoku turned green since July, Gold flashed a buy signal. As a result we expect one more rise towards at least the Lower Highs trend-line. Our target is 1943.
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PLAN TRADING GOLD WEEK : 25.09 - 29.09.2023The day the interest rate information was announced, it increased to the 1946 - 1948 Sellzone, but there was not enough liquidity to overcome it. Immediately after that, it was returned by a very strong SELL amount
There are no signs of a reversal to a downtrend.
Still following the downtrend from the peak of 2067. Even though there was a break (fake break at FOMC time).
Prioritize SELL - follow the trend in 2 regions: 1929.5 and 1936.5
(1929 is already Filled, so the possibility will be quite risky, while 1936.5 is a fairly fresh liquidity zone)
If BUY - you can place a risky bet on: 1911.2
GoldViewFX - Gold MARKET UPDATEHey Everyone,
Our chart idea has played out to perfection. We completed all our Bullish targets followed with the move down into the retracement range.
We then stated the levels are re- activated, as price is back in the range and expected a bounce from the retracement range into the next Goldturn, which was highlighted by an arrow on the chart.
- This also played out today with the bounce from the retracement range into 1925 completing the bullish move we called yesterday.
BULLISH TARGETS
1925 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1925 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
1934 - DONE
1943 - DONE
BEARISH TARGETS
1917 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1917 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
1901 - 1890
We will now come back Sunday with our multi timeframe analysis, trading plan and a route map for the coming week for gold.
Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Have a great weekend all!!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
XAUUSD: Gold analysis and layout
Gold rose last week, and then began to slowly shake down, the lowest fell to around 1900, but still not broken 1900, Thursday bottomed out, Friday rose strongly, the highest to close near 1930, the weekly line closed a lower line longer than the upper line of the positive line. At present, it is temporarily in the range waiting for a breakthrough in the choice of direction, and the daily line is parallel to the end of the line, and the wide fluctuation between the upper and lower rails is temporarily seen in the short term
Four-hour chart a wave of recovery to recover lost ground, re-broke the downward step, approaching the fall, and there is no obvious unilateral direction in the short term, longer is in the sawing shock, the interval at the beginning of the week, the time point after the European trading, the day to pay attention to the small resistance 1930 breakthrough, followed by 1945/1953 pressure, Focus on 1916/1900 support below
Specific layout:
(1) See 1945/1953 can be short respectively, the target to see 1930-1922
(2) See below 1916 to do more, lose 7 points, the target to see 1926-1930 on the break
(3) Focus on the broken position in 1930
Join me and don't let hesitation and procrastination affect the speed at which you make money
XAUUSD Golden Cross and the 1H MA50 are supporting this uptrend.Last time we looked at Gold (XAUUSD), it gave us two sell opportunities both of which hit their targets (see chart below):
The price has been rising since, supported by the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and on top of that, the 1H Golden Cross has been formed. Last time we saw that pattern was on August 23. On that fractal, once the 1H MA50 broke, the price pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and then resumed the uptrend.
As a result, we are bullish already since the 1H MA50 is supporting. If it holds, we will simply add one more buy position when the pull-back hits the 0.5 Fib. In either case, the target is 1953 (Resistance 3).
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GoldViewFX - Gold Route Map for the weekHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We have 1926 Goldturn resistance target open for a test. We will need to see 1926 break and lock to open the range above.
We also have the retracement zone at 1917 that may require a correctional re-test.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and the catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week last 18 months, you can see how effectively they can be used to trade with or against short terms swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
1926
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1926 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
1932
1940
BEARISH TARGETS
1917
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1917 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGETS
1910
1905
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1905 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
1897 - 1889
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR