XAUUSD WAR BUY ANALSYSIS 15.10.23 Reason For XAUUSD Bullish
1. Breakedout the Strong Trendline of 1920 and now readt For Retest
2. Decending Broadening Wedge Pattern Continued and make the swing High as Traget 2074
3. Bulllish Flag Pattern Makes the futher Buy Movement with swing Low as sl 1880 and to 1980
4. Due to Isreal Palestine Issue the GOLD expected Emerge Movement
Overall Possible Outcomes
XAUUSD BUY @ 1915-20
SL 1880
TP1 1960
TP2 1990
WAR TP 2074
Xauusdsignals
XAUUSD: Today's gold analysis and advice
The day will focus on the United States September import price index monthly rate, the United States October one-year inflation expectations, the United States October University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value, according to yesterday's data performance, the evening data will be biased towards bearish gold prices, coupled with 2023 FOMC voting committee, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Harker on 2023 economic prospects speech.
From the daily line, the Bollinger band closed, the gold price yesterday rose to the first line of 1885 dollars, that is, near the Bollinger medium rail resistance, which is also an important support position for gold in late August, a place where the top and bottom conversion, breaking through this position to open the space above.
4 hours, the Bollinger belt has signs of closure, the price of gold in the upper track near the resistance after the pullback, in the impact of the data back to yesterday's 1870 support line, did not form an effective break, then, the day's gold prices are likely to maintain in 1870-1875 this range of oscillations, before not falling below the 1870 line, gold short line or more shocks, Even if it is to fall, there will be a second test resistance process, today's gold price short-term attention above the 1885 line of resistance, below the 1870 line of support.
Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bullish above 1865, target 1890-1900; Low probability scenario: Bearish below 1865, target 1855-1850.
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XAUUSD: Gold operation thought and analysis
Gold jumps $30 as Fed downplays rate hike.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate and is expected to expand, and the sense of panic continues to rise.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve again downplayed expectations of interest rate hikes, and the dollar ushered in a sharp retreat.
Gold extended to a new high of 1865 today after yesterday's rally.
Pullback 1853/1854 Long, target 1864-1870
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Gold- Today could be Pivotal Day for Market Direction"As explained in yesterday's video, Gold is still in a bearish structure overall.
However, after the incapacity to break under 1855 during the trading day, I decided to close my short trade with a minimal 30 pips loss and decided to wait and see.
As the title suggests, today is a very important day for Gold traders, and after inflation and FED minutes the direction could become more clear.
On one hand, as I explained, Gold is still bearish overall, and a spike up and reversal during the day could reinforce this outlook and could very well put a top in place.
On the other hand, a spike down and reversal to the upside or a direct rise and daily close near the top of the range could mean a reversal of the longer-term trend to the upside.
MACRO MONDAY 15 ~ Gold Performance During RecessionsMacro Monday 15
Gold Performance During Recessions vs S&P500
With the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve being inverted since July 2022, many leading analysts believe that the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession in coming months. Many of the charts covered on our Macro Monday releases are signaling some recession concerns (not confirmations). With this in mind, we will start looking at assets that perform well during recessions. This starts with non-other than the obvious, Gold.
The aim of this Gold chart is to establish if gold is a good asset to hold during recession periods versus holding general market indices such as the S&P500. The obvious thought would be that it would offer a hedge of sorts but we want to back that up with the data and a visual.
We are parking any preconceived notions that gold is a safe haven risk free asset and we will focus purely on the data from the last 8 recessions. Lets see how Gold fares.
The Chart
The chart measures golds price movement from the beginning of each recession period to what the price was when Gold exited the recession period. The recession periods are the green and red shaded areas on the chart.
The measurement for the S&P500 price decline during the recession periods (in the table provided) is measured from the S&P500 entry price at the beginning of each recession period to the lowest price point during the recession period (not the exit value from the recession period as used for Gold). I used the lowest price during the recession periods as a measurement for the S&P500 as it illustrates the maximum damage to a portfolio holding the S&P500 index within a recession period.
Chart – Main Findings
1. The average length of the 8 recessions on the chart is c.11 months during which:
- The average return for Gold was +7.3% and,
- the S&P500 declined by an average of -35.6%
2. Based on the above figures in 6 out of the last 8 recessions Gold outperformed the S&P500 by 42.7% on average.
3. Recession 6 and 4 are the outliers which show that Gold decreased in value during these recession periods by -9.3% & -6.3% respectively, however Gold still performed better than the S&P500 in both cases (S&P500 declined by -12.7% & -16.3%).
Overall Golds performance during the last 8 recessions certainly provides an argument for its inclusion in investors’ portfolios. During these periods of market uncertainty and volatility it is highly probable that your Gold position will perform better than the S&P500 and afford your portfolio some protection from the potential average S&P500 price declines of 35.6%. It appears that you could expect an average return 7.3% for holding gold through a recession period (which is an average of 11 months). Whilst this is a very small gain, it is a relatively risk averse gain for these periods of great uncertainty.
It’s important to note that there are other assets to consider such as the Cash and Government Bonds both of which can pay a yield. If these yields are providing a higher real return (yield being paid minus current inflation) then they could be more attractive than an asset like Gold which is not providing a yield and which could decrease in value over the same period (such as in No. 6 and 4 above). There are also other commodities and value stocks to consider during recessionary periods. We will have a look at these alternatives in coming Macro Mondays to compare their performance to Golds during recessions.
Gold has established itself as popular among investors because it can be used as a hedge against currency devaluation, inflation, or deflation. Thus investors seek safety in the precious metals like Gold when they are concerned about losing real value from otherwise safe assets like cash and US government bonds.
I believe this chart demonstrates Gold is worth holding in any investors portfolio during periods of recession and uncertainty.
PUKA
XAUUSD: Next week's gold view
Late gold view: The lower support is this week's low near 1810, no matter when it can be long. The upper resistance is near the high point of 1849 this week, and once the market effectively breaks 1849, there will be a rebound, and it is estimated that it will rise to 1880. If 1849 is blocked, gold will double dip or fall back. The daily line dipped to 1810 on Friday, and peaked at around 1835 in the evening, still very much in line with expectations.
The daily line closed long under the shadow of the Yang line, the trend on Monday to rebound mainly. Daily support near 1820, touching can be long.
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PLAN TRADING GOLD WEEK : 09.10 - 13.10.2023Gold has formed a falling price channel for a long time. Gold prices channel below and reacts to shallowing and is gentle.
With Intensity waiting to reach the upper boundary ( 1875 - 1900 ).
Just saved with the Fibo degeneration zone ": 0.5 - 0.618 - 0.786 of the previous down wave.
Gold may move towards the fibo zones. If it really reaches 1956, then it will be clear that the trend has reversed.
Otherwise, still have to wait around 1724.
Therefore, the general trend is that we will still watch for Short-term BUY during the week. TP like mentioned above.
Summary :
BUY Entry : 1820 - 1825.
Stoploss : 1810
Target : 1850 - 1863 - 1880 - 1890 - 1900
Goodluck Everyone !
XAUUSD Channel-to-Channel Cycles. New Bull or 1700 next?This is not the first time we chart these Cycles on Gold (XAUUSD), as we did our latest study on September 27 (see chart below) and we were quick to catch the break-out sell on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line):
This time though, we add the Channel element as well as the unique US10Y/DXY ratio and the mix proves to be quite accurate. As you see every Channel Down (red) is formed on a rising US10Y/DXY ratio, which is naturally expected as both the US10Y and DXY are negatively (inversely) correlated to Gold. Similarly every Channel Up (green) is formed while the US10Y/DXY ratio gets neutralized.
Right now the ratio is on the rise, hence the Channel Down on Gold, and the price hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 11 months (since November 07 2022) and immediately reacted with a bounce.
At the same time, the 1W RSI hit the top of the 2-year Support Zone. Every time the RSI hit this Zone, while the US10Y/DXY ratio was rising, Gold started to form its market bottom. The only time this RSI Support Zone got hit and Gold didn't rise was when the ratio was declining (July 11 2022). Right now we have the conditions for a market bottom as the ratio is rising.
Next week will be critical as if it closes the candle in green and the RSI reverses, then we can see a 1-month bottom formation that will lead to the new Channel Up. If not, we can't rule a price as low as 1700.
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XAUUSD: Weekly earnings summary
This week ended perfectly, earning 50,000, exceeding the expected target, the main reason is to seize the opportunity to fall all the way, continue to maintain next week, I wish everyone a happy weekend!
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Gold: shocks remain unchanged
Gold is now maintaining its bottom and oscillating sideways. The decline has temporarily come to an end. If it is no longer weak, it will become stronger! Moreover, the release of the big non-agricultural data in the U.S. is expected to lead to a skyrocketing rebound! The US market continues to be bullish relying on the support of 1815!
Plan your trade, trade your plan! The current decline in gold is obviously not strong enough! And it will no longer break new lows! The U.S. large non-agricultural data is expected to be similar to the small non-agricultural data, and will start a rebound trend!
Long, the U.S. market relies on the support of 1815 to be bullish on lows. The upper side will pay attention to the pressure of 1833. If the 1833 position is broken, it will prove that the market has turned and the rise has begun!
Gold is over 1815, stop loss is 1807, target is 1833.
Gold- Before NFP and beyond technical analysisLet's think beyond technical analysis and consider what Gold is likely to do.
We all see it's at a support level, and we're expecting a correction after a 1000 pip drop. In the long term, it's in a descending channel, and to reach the channel's resistance, it needs to rise to 1880, which is 600 pips away.
So, two questions arise:
Is it that simple for Gold to stay put for three days so everyone can buy and profit?
Secondly, who's selling if everyone sees this? Are they blind, or do they want to lose?
With that in mind, I believe Gold will continue to decline, and I have two scenarios for NFP:
1. A spike up and then a drop below support.
2. A direct drop below support.
Of course, I could be wrong.
Gold- Drop- Base- Drop pattern?After the break under 1915 important confluence support that I've spoken about, XauUsd dropped like a stone, with a drop counting 1000 pips.
Although most of us expected some correction after, Gold started to consolidate instead and bulls were unable to elevate the price to confirm the last broken support level at 1855 (at least so far)
The price action from Tuesday looks like it wants to form a "drop-base-drop" pattern and a break of 1810 zone would confirm this scenario.
In such an instance traders could expect a new wave of strong selling and the new led down could lead to a drop at 1730 zone support.
In any case, Gold remains strongly bearish as long as the price is under 1855
GOLD, 213 pip OANDA:XAUUSD
Hey there dear attendants
It will be a pleasure if you could brace me with your supportive likes & comments if you would have tested my strategies
Lets see what happened and break the leg 😍
Hope to benefit for all
So excited 😝 looking forward from hearing from you
Wish the best
is not financial advice
Gold: Today’s Strategy
The downward trend of gold has not changed, and operations continue to be bearish at high altitudes! The rebound is still a short-selling opportunity! The US market position of 1824 continues to be empty, and the target position of 1800 below remains unchanged!
Gold continues to fall. Although there is a rebound during the decline, the strength of the rebound is very weak! This time gold's rebound should fall again after encountering resistance from hourly Bollinger upper track pressure!
Therefore, the U.S. market continues to be short and bearish. The pressure position of the rebound in the European market, 1828, is also a short-selling position. The U.S. market is directly short! Just continue to be bearish!
XAUUSD D1 - Long Signal XAUUSD D1
We have sold off an absolute monstrous 1250 points in total from 1940 down to 1815, actively 1150 points as we have bounced somewhat 100.
Support price of $1805 would be the lowest price gold has trading during the whole of 2023. We have have a huge bearish selloff without any relief rally.
A bounce from support price of $1805 could be amazing play, especially if NFP, AE and UE figures compliment this. We wont know until Friday though, speculation and preparation.
XAUUSD Time to see the first short-term rebound.On last week's Gold (XAUUSD) analysis we called it was time to finally break below the 1W MA50 (chart below) and it did in spectacular fashion, already hitting the 1850 target:
The price now almost hit the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and being near the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down, the conditions for a short-term (at least) rebound emerge. The 1D RSI hit 20.00, the lowest it has been in almost 7 years (since December 14 2016) and that enhances the probabilities of a rebound. The current Channel Down resembles that of 2022 and as you see all rebounds to Lower Highs hit at least either the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). We are therefore targeting the new 0.5 Fib at 1885 for the moment, unless the price hits the 1D MA50 first.
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Navigating Gold's Strong Bearish Move: Is a Correction up next?As explained in my Sunday video, Gold is extremely bearish and the price could fall to 1805-1810 support.
Indeed, XAU/USD started the month and the week on a bearish note and is currently trading 300 pips lower compared to Friday's closing price.
Looking at the posted chart we can see that this is already the 7Th red day (not closed yet) and after the break under 1915 support, the price dropped almost without correction. Just an intraday spike on Friday.
All in all, we are in a very strong bear move
However, considering the magnitude of the drop and the proximity of an important support, a correction could follow.
Aggressive traders could look to buy in the support zone.
Keep in mind though that everyone is expecting a correction and a spike under 1800 to clear stops is not out of the question.
On the much safer side, sell rallies should be the strategy.
Gold- 500 pips target hit! Now what?As you know, I was bearish Gold since Tuesday and argued that, if XauUsd breaks under 1915 zone support, we could assist a 500 pips drop.
The "major target for bears" was hit yesterday and now we may wonder what's next.
Technically, the structure is strongly bearish, however, considering the magnitude of the recent drop, a correction to the upside is probable. Also, the fact that is Friday adds to this possibility, considering a lot of take profits.
In conclusion, 1855 technical support could offer good buying opportunities for a rise and test of recently broken support at 1885.
Also, the congestion from 1875 could offer resistance.
Best of luck and happy trading!
Mihai Iacob
Gold prices have reached lows, will they rise again?As we expected, we shorted to 1885 in the last period and made a profit. My next suggestion is to go long. Gold has fallen to its lowest point in the short term and may have entered a rebound period.
XAUUSD
Buy 1885
TP 1895
SL 1880
Good luck and happy trading.
"Gold's Battle at 1944: A Crossroads"#XAUUSD On September 1st, encountered a formidable resistance barrier at 1950 and subsequently began its descent toward the established support level at 1885. Interestingly, the downward trajectory was interrupted as gold found a reversal point around the 1900 mark. Currently, the precious metal is in the process of retesting the 1944 resistance level.
Should gold successfully breach the resistance at 1944, it could signal a potential bullish move, with the price poised to ascend towards higher levels, possibly reaching 1985. However, if the resistance at 1944 holds firm, there remains the possibility of a downward correction in the gold market.
Sell Entry - 1942
TP1 - 1900
TP2 - 1885
Buy Entry - 1946
TP1 - 1980
TP2 - 2015
SL - Join Our Channel
XAUUSD Time to finally break below the 1W MA50? How bad is it?Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of December 26 2022. Last time it was nearly hit (February 20 - 27 2023) it supported the pull-back emphatically, and initiated a strong rebound.
Almost 5 months ago (May 4), when everyone in the market was jubilant about Gold's new All Time High, we warned the community (see chart below) of the high probability of a 1W MA50 correction if the the 1W candle failed to close above the 2075 Resistance, which is holding since the August 2020 High:
This is what happened as the price closed below the ATH Resistance, the 1W RSI got rejected exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line (additional sell signal), hit the initial 1975 target and broke below the 1D MA50. In the proccess, it turned the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) into Resistance and formed the Lower Highs trend-line that dictate the course of the downtrend.
This development (Lower Highs on top of a 1D MA100 Resistance) has been the characteristic of both previous corrections after fails to close above the 2075 level (August 2020, March 2022). On both sequences, Gold found the first Zone of Support within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci range. Our targets, always in the event of a close below the 1W MA50, are firmly placed (1850 and 1800) based on that Zone (we call it the High Volatility Zone) but this time is slightly different as we have to acknowledge the presence of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 1812.50 and rising continuously.
However the 1W MA200 was breached and the price even stayed below it for almost 2 months, last September (2022). This more than justifies a 1800 projection but best to pursue it with less risk after a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA200.
During this 3-year pattern, the bottom is already priced when the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 mark. Right now it is marginally on it but with no signs of reversing. On both previous corrections the week that followed the 1W MACD Bullish Cross, the price also broke above the 1D MA100. If it breaks before that, it could be a sign of an early bearish invalidation.
Additional relevant material:
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XAUUSD Signal!!! RSI Divergence!!!Hello Everyone. I want share my idea about gold price action which will be signal for next week.
I know market is closing but i love look at market when its quiet and we had all strong and real moves.
I add some indicator which show me price momentum, today in Asia session started with long which actually tested strong daily resistance (which was broke but seller were strong and they dropped price) after end of Asia session, London session started with short but it was not aggressive move and stopped to Asia demand zone where new your session made liquidity test this area second time, showed reversal movement and RSI momentum indicator agreed that and this everything happened in Fibonacci High volume area.
This all information gave me confirmation of short signal which is perfect for day traders. i think it will retest 1913 daily support area and catch this retest, then i will wait price action.
Here is my setup for this signal.
Open position - 1925.
Stop loss - 1932.
Take Profit - 1913.
Manage your risk!!! Good luck!!!