Gold Roadmap==>>When will Gold Correction Start Begin!?Today, I want to show you the Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) roadmap before the US presidential election .
Gold has started an upward rally for over 2 months and is moving in an Ascending Channel .
Educational tip : Try to draw the channels you draw in the chart with a tolerance.
The question that arises for us is how long this bullish Gold rally can continue and when the correction of Gold will begin.
In addition to the fundamental discussion , we can use technical analysis tools to answer the above questions . One of the best methods is the Elliott Wave Theory .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 in the Ascending Channel(small) .
I expect the main wave of 5 Gold to finish in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) , and then we have to wait for the starting correction .
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's see what the history of gold has been like in the last month before the US presidential election .
Throughout history, gold prices have often fluctuated in the months leading up to U.S. presidential elections. These changes have been influenced by various factors specific to each period. Here's a brief summary of gold's performance before some key U.S. elections :
1- 2016 Election (Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton) : Prior to the 2016 election, gold experienced significant volatility. Uncertainty about the outcome, especially with Trump's unpredictable economic policies, increased demand for gold as a safe haven. Gold prices rose in the months leading up to the election, reaching new highs after Trump's victory.
2- 2012 Election (Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney) : Leading up to the 2012 election, gold showed less volatility compared to other years. The Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policies and low interest rates kept gold attractive as a safe investment. Gold prices remained relatively stable before the election but surged after due to concerns over the "fiscal cliff."
3- 2008 Election (Barack Obama vs. John McCain) : The 2008 global financial crisis had a massive impact on gold prices. In the months leading up to the election, gold saw increased demand as a safe haven. Economic uncertainty and large bailout packages led to a significant rise in gold prices during this period.
4- 2000 Election (George W. Bush vs. Al Gore) : The 2000 election was marked by the "hanging chad" controversy, causing significant political uncertainty. This drove demand for gold. In the months before the election, gold prices rose, and after the election, due to ongoing political unrest and doubt over the result, gold saw further increases.
5- 1980 Election (Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter) : During this period, severe inflation and political uncertainty, both domestic and international, increased the demand for gold. In the months leading up to the 1980 election, gold prices were on an upward trend and reached new highs.
Conclusion : History shows that gold often rises in the lead-up to U.S. elections due to political and economic uncertainty. Elections coinciding with financial crises or heightened uncertainty (such as in 2008 and 2016) have had a greater impact on gold price surges.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, let's see how gold has performed in November .
Here’s a summary of the percentage changes in gold prices during November over the last 10 years :
1- November 2023 : Data not yet available, but gold has been volatile due to economic and inflation concerns.
2- November 2022 : Approximately +8% increase due to lowered interest rate expectations and recession concerns.
3- November 2021 : Approximately -1% decrease due to rising interest rates and stronger financial markets.
4- November 2020 : Approximately -5% decrease post-U.S. election, but demand remained high due to COVID-19 and stimulus packages.
5- November 2019 : Approximately +3% increase due to the U.S.-China trade war.
6- November 2018 : Approximately +1% increase after a few months of decline.
7- November 2017 : Approximately -2% decrease due to stock market growth and higher interest rates.
8- November 2016 : Approximately -7% decrease following Trump’s victory and market optimism.
9- November 2015 : Approximately -6% decrease due to anticipation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
10- November 2014 : Approximately -5% decrease due to a stronger U.S. dollar and improving U.S. economy.
11- November 2013 : Approximately -4% decrease due to global economic recovery and the Fed's exit from its quantitative easing policies.
Gold in November tends to be influenced by changes in monetary policy and economic conditions. Years with inflation or uncertainty saw increases, while years with economic recovery and rising interest rates experienced declines. But in general, there has been a downward trend, especially in the years when the US presidential elections were held.
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
