XAU/USD 4-8 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure: Bullish.
Internal Structure: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as last week's analysis dated 27 October 2024
Price has continued its surge, reaching new all-time highs with no signs yet of bearish pullback phase initiation.
The initial indication of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price's ongoing ascent has now positioned CHoCH significantly closer to most recent price action.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Gold's price has maintained its upward surge after printing a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), fueled by softer U.S. macroeconomic data and intensified geopolitical tensions.
In my weekly analysis dated 27 October 2024, I mentioned that price could potentially reach new highs, moving the bearish CHoCH positioning closer to current price. This shift would create a realistic opportunity for price to indicate the start of a bearish pullback phase.
This forecast played out as expected, with CHoCH positioning now significantly nearer to recent price action, marked by a blue dotted vertical line.
Following the bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated. While price is currently giving very early signs of this by printing a higher high that has brought the CHoCH positioning closer, this is still an indication, not a confirmation of a potential pullback. The first more concrete signal of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH).
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 31 October 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal.
Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high.
We should however remain mindful that Daily TF is showing very early signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. Therefore, price could potentially print a bearish iBOS.
H4 Chart:
Xauusdtrade
XAUUSD: NFP//Short-first, Then-longAfter the initial rebound from a significant drop, it appears the market is ready for a secondary retest of the bottom support range. Keep a close eye on the 2742-2732 support zone. Should prices drop into this range before the data release, and if the data turns bearish, expect further downside with targets in the 2718-2712 range; in case of a stronger bearish impulse, prices may fall to the 2708-2703 region.
Alternatively, if the data supports bullish movement, prices could rise above 2760. Given recent data, bearish probability seems higher, so a “short-first, then-long” strategy is advised, with careful attention to entry and exit points.
What Should You Do if You Hold Long Positions Between 2770-2750?Today, influenced by negative data, gold experienced a significant drop. After completing the take profit on my short positions, I entered long trades. I believe many of you are in a similar situation, holding long positions in the 2767-2730 range, which has led to our accounts being in a trapped state.
However, after such a large decline, a market rebound is inevitable. As long as we hold our positions firmly, we can at least expect a rebound to around 2760. Additionally, tomorrow's NFP data and unemployment rate will be released, along with several other minor data points that will certainly contribute to increased market volatility.
If the price rebounds to around 2760 before the data is published, then under negative data conditions, it is likely to drop again. However, if the price does not rebound to this level, gold will not drop too much under negative data, with 2721-2712 being an acceptable range.
In this context, next week's trading will definitely focus on long positions. So, if your orders are also in a trapped state, there’s no need to worry too much. The market always has its ups and downs; stay confident and seize the opportunities for a rebound. In the end, we will achieve better results.
XAU/USD 31 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal.
Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
In yesterday’s intraday analysis, I mentioned that technically, price was expected to react at the internal 50% EQ discount to target the weak internal high. However, there was also potential for a bearish iBOS, which is exactly what unfolded.
Price has made multiple attempts to breach the strong internal high at 2,789.855 but has yet to succeed, leaving it intact.
Intraday Expectation: Price has reacted from the H4 supply zone. Technically, price is now expected to target the weak internal low at 2,770.925.
Note: Price remains highly volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s dovish stance.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD: Short In The 2780-2800 RangeYesterday, gold prices experienced a significant surge, reaching a high of 2790, which is very close to the psychological level of 2800. In the near term, bullish sentiment is likely to continue probing this important threshold until prices approach 2800. However, it's important to note that due to this substantial increase, market indicators have begun to show divergence, and there is a high probability of a deeper pullback in the short term. From a technical standpoint, the expected pullback should occur in the range of 2770 to 2760. Only after repairing these indicators is there a likelihood for another price increase. Thus, the high point near 2790 will certainly not be a singular peak; there should at least be one more opportunity to revisit this price level.
Additionally, this week is an important data week that occurs once a month, and market volatility on Thursday and Friday will likely intensify. Regarding the data being released this Friday, I believe it poses a significant downside risk for gold. Therefore, if you are holding short positions and find yourself trapped, as long as your account balance is sufficient, there is no need to worry excessively. You can navigate market fluctuations through hedging strategies or multiple directional trades, making it entirely feasible to extricate yourself from this predicament.
Short gold bravelyBros, I have been optimistic about shorting gold in the past two days. Today, I shorted gold near 2730 and closed the order at 2720, making a profit of 100 pips, which is relatively a good profit.
At present, gold has rebounded to around 2730 again, but judging from the strength of the rebound, it is expected that the rebound space of gold will be relatively limited, and the short-term resistance is in the 2730-2735 area. So for short-term trading, I am still optimistic about shorting gold. I think gold will at least try to test the 2705-2700 area.
Bros, fuck the bull market, let's sell gold happily together!
XAUUSD: There is a possibility of falling below 2700 todayYesterday we waited for the gold price to meet resistance at 2740 before selling, and the effect was very good. Today my strategy is still bearish. As long as 2740 is not effectively broken, the bearish view can be maintained.
From the 1H chart, after yesterday's failure to break through the 2740 resistance, the bearish pattern of the head and shoulders top has basically formed, and there is no problem with the lowest position of the head and shoulders top pointing below 2700 points. Therefore, even if today's sharp decline in the market after Black Friday is out, I am not surprised.
With the formation of a downward trend, the high point is definitely moving down, so today's selling point can be appropriately lowered a little, in the range of 2730-2740, the target is 2715 first, and then 2700
The above is today's trading strategy. Friends who need to copy my detailed signals and real-time operations can contact me, good luck everyone!
Gold Trading Strategy: Continued Selling and Rebound ObservationAfter the rebound, gold has dropped again, now breaking below MA60, with short-term moving averages acting as resistance. I believe it’s prudent to continue selling today, with signals already shared at the market open—our regulars have already enjoyed some profits.
With the current rebound, I recommend using MA60 and MA30 as reference prices for selling, targeting around 2712. We can then assess the market reaction before deciding whether to buy back in.
Gold: A Rebound to 2730 is Not a ProblemYesterday, gold experienced a dramatic decline. I'm curious how everyone fared—did you make a profit or incur a loss? If you made money, you can continue to profit today; if you lost, follow my lead today, and I’m sure I can help you.
In scenarios like yesterday's drop, a rebound is inevitable. Remember this: after a significant decline, a rebound will follow, and after a significant rise, a correction will occur. These are major trading opportunities that every trader should seize.
For this rebound, we won’t set overly ambitious targets. Although my psychological expectation is above 2740, I’m not willing to take that risk. I’d prefer to close my buy positions before hitting 2740 and patiently wait for it to rise before considering selling.
That’s all for now. If you want to see more detailed and specific signals, reach out to me, and you'll gain access.
Sell gold again in the 2740-2750 areaBros, yesterday, gold retreated and once fell below 2710, laying a good foundation for the decline. Although gold has rebounded to around 2740 again, compared with the previous period, the attitude of gold rising is not firm, so relatively speaking, the current gold short position is more attractive.
The current rebound of gold may be a trap set to trap more bulls, so I am definitely not willing to go long on gold at present; from the technical structure, gold has signs of building a head and shoulders top in the short term. So in terms of short-term trading, I prefer to short gold. So now we can short gold in batches again in the 2740-2750 area.
Bros, are you optimistic about shorting gold?
Gold Trading Strategy: Focus on Selling TodayYesterday, we bought and made some profits, and today we’ll primarily focus on selling.
The trading signal I released before the market opened suggests selling in the 2746-2752 range, with a TP set at 2738-2734. Some friends may have already traded based on the signal they received earlier; you can still join in.
Gold is currently within the selling range, and if you’re looking to place this order, now could be an even better position.
I will continue to monitor market trends, and any changes in trading will be communicated promptly. Stay tuned, and feel free to leave me a message if you have any questions.
XAUUSD: Sell, Add Positions At 2746-2751Today, gold broke through the resistance around 2728 and returned to the vicinity of 2738. Indicators show that resistance remains significant, so I recommend continuing to sell within the 2738-2743 range.
If prices continue to rise, I expect to encounter strong resistance in the 2746-2751 range. At that point, the market is likely to experience a pullback, and a return to around 2738 should not pose too much of a problem.
Therefore, today’s trading strategy is to sell in the 2738-2743 range and add to the sell position in the 2746-2751 range.
Gold Trading : A Must-See OpportunityToday’s trading went very smoothly. I sold at 2746, took profit at 2738, then bought back at 2738 and closed in the 2742-2745 range—perfectly timed.
Some friends receive only one signal a day, while others get two, and some can access every trading signal I send. It all depends on your individual choices and preferences.
Currently, gold has broken above MA5 and returned to 2746, with MA60 as a reference for support and resistance temporarily at 2750. Today’s decline started from this level, and any upward movement will need to be assessed through trend lines, targeting around 2760.
If it truly rises to this level, I believe there’s a high chance it will drop back to around 2750.
XAUUSD Update and How To Day Trade GOLD👀👉 This is an update to my previous video. In that session, I discussed the importance of identifying a retracement and waiting for a bullish structure break to enter long positions. In this video, we will analyze gold on a lower timeframe, specifically focusing on strategies for engaging with the trend on a 15-minute chart. Disclaimer: This video is intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📊✅
XAU 1M Gold price formation history and future expectationsGold , or as denote the main trading pair XAUUSD , has been gaining a lot of attention around itself in recent years.
As soon as major analysts or hedge fund top-managers begin to say that the next crisis is near, investors immediately start buying gold as a defensive asset, and its price, accordingly, goes up.
Let's walk a little through the history of the Gold price.
We finished drawing the graph, to what exists on tradingview.com, based on the data that is freely available.
1) In 1933, to overcome the crisis after the "Great Depression", US President Roosevelt issued a decree on the confiscation of gold from the population. The price for an ounce of gold is set at $20.66.
2) In 1971, a real rise in the value of gold begins. After decoupling the US dollar rate from the "gold standard", which regulated the cost of 1 troy ounce of gold at $35 for a long period from 1934 to August 1971.
3) 1973 - "The First Oil Crisis" and the rise in the value of gold from $35 to $180 - as the main anti-crisis instrument, a means of hedging investment risks.
4) 1979-1980 Islamic Revolution in Iran (Second Energy Crisis). The cost of gold, as the main protective asset, in a short period of time grows more than 8 times and sets a maximum at around $850
5) During 1998-2000, the world swept through: the "Asian economic crisis", defaults in a number of countries, and the cherry on the cake - the "Dotcom Bubble". During this period, the price of gold was twice aggressively bought out by investors, from the level of $250. It was a clear signal - there will be no lower, next, only growth!
6) And so it happened, from 2001 to 2011 there was an increase in the value of gold from $250 to $1921 . Even the mortgage crisis of 2008 could not break the growth trend, but only acted as a trigger for a 30% price correction.
Looking at the XAUUSD chart now, one can assume that large investors were actively buying gold in the $1050-1350 range during 2013-2019.
It is hard to believe that investors who have been gaining long positions for 6 years will be satisfied with such a small period of growth in 2019-2020.
For ourselves, we establish a Gold purchase zone in the range of $1527-1600 per troy ounce, from where we expect the growth trend to continue to the $3180-3350 region
What are your views on the future price of gold? Share them in the comments!
Gold will rise again to 2740The buy signal released before yesterday's close perfectly hit the take-profit target at today’s opening, bringing in substantial profits. Currently, gold is hovering near MA5, with MA60 and MA30 acting as support. I believe we can continue to buy, setting a take-profit target in the 2737-2743 range.
Gold Will First Fall To 2720The New York trading session has begun, bringing more market opportunities! I’m sure there are others out there still holding onto the 2723 sell order like I am. For now, I'm not planning to touch it—I’m waiting for profits. The price is still above the MA5, so I just need to wait for it to break, followed by the MA30. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the price should drop to at least 2720, and that’s when this order will become profitable!
In the meantime, I’ll continue trading other signals. While there are plenty of opportunities in the market every day, I can't guarantee I'll catch every single fluctuation.
As long as it's a signal I send out, I will track it thoroughly until the order is completed perfectly! Trust me—every trade you make will receive expert guidance and support. Together, we’ll lock in profits and achieve wealth growth!
Next Steps in the Gold Market: Are You Ready?Last week, we made significant profits in gold trading. As a new week begins, I’m eager to hear your thoughts on the gold market. Before the market closed on Friday, I bought gold at 2719, setting a take-profit target at 2725. This setup is based on my predictions of market trends.
I believe that after today’s opening, gold will experience a slight increase before starting to correct, testing the support strength of the recent upward trendline. Therefore, my plan is to buy first and then sell, with specific trading signals shared on Friday for your reference.
Throughout the trading session, I’ll keep a close eye on market movements and will promptly inform you of any changes, so stay tuned!
Golden Investment Strategy: Opportunities Amidst TensionThe current international situation is indeed tense, leading to a continuous rise in gold prices, which are now nearing $2700, compared to under $2000 last year. It is striking that "when the cannon fires, gold weighs heavy."
Until international relations stabilize, a significant drop in gold prices seems unlikely, so our investment strategy should favor a bullish approach.
Based on current conditions, MA30 will serve as a crucial support level; as long as this level holds, we can pursue long trades. However, a slight adjustment is expected today, potentially dropping to around $2684.
For the highs, we should look towards the $2704-$2712 range—if we reach that point, a decisive sell is advised. If $2700 remains unbroken for an extended period, consider a small short position, and upon a pullback to MA30, execute a minor long trade to see if a breakthrough occurs.
If a breakthrough happens, significant selling should take place, aiming to close positions around $2688.
Sorry, I've already started shorting goldAt present, gold has risen strongly to around 2689, and is only one step away from 2700. Although the gold market is hot at present, I do not advocate chasing gold now. To be honest, as long as gold remains above 2675, I will not advocate going long on gold.
Now that gold is approaching 2700, it has basically reached the short-term expectations of bulls. Now that gold is approaching 2700, it has basically reached the short-term expectations of the bulls. Some of the profit-making chips may be cashed in for shipment. This is why I do not recommend chasing gold. In the short term, since gold rose near 2638, there has been basically no decent correction. So when facing the psychological pressure of 2700, gold is likely to have a round of correction, retesting the 2670-2665 area, and may even retest the 2660-2655 area.
So, bros, while you are keen on chasing gold, I am now shorting gold in batches! Let us look forward to the next results!
XAUUSD: After a New High, a Support Retest is Needed
Following a recent pullback, gold is now in the midst of a rebound, riding the momentum of its newly achieved all-time high. However, the difficulty of sustaining further upside increases at this stage. Therefore, it presents a strategic opportunity to establish short positions in the 2680-2690 range, anticipating a fresh support retest.
If the price holds above 2668 during this pullback, it could signal another buying opportunity, allowing traders to re-enter long positions with confidence.
Sorry, I've already started shorting goldAt present, gold has risen strongly to around 2689, and is only one step away from 2700. Although the gold market is hot at present, I do not advocate chasing gold now. To be honest, as long as gold remains above 2675, I will not advocate going long on gold.
Now that gold is approaching 2700, it has basically reached the short-term expectations of bulls. Now that gold is approaching 2700, it has basically reached the short-term expectations of the bulls. Some of the profit-making chips may be cashed in for shipment. This is why I do not recommend chasing gold. In the short term, since gold rose near 2638, there has been basically no decent correction. So when facing the psychological pressure of 2700, gold is likely to have a round of correction, retesting the 2670-2665 area, and may even retest the 2660-2655 area.
So, bros, while you are keen on chasing gold, I am now shorting gold in batches! Let us look forward to the next results!