XAUUSD: One last pullback possible, but bullish long term.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.979, MACD = -4.490, ADX = 14.647) as once more it got rejected on the 1D MA50, struggling to close a 1D candle over it since December 12th 2024. Technically though, it is on a slow rise on the bottom of the Channel Up, potentially a bottom formation like June 2024. Even though one last pullback like June 26th 2024 is possible, the long term trend remains bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds. As the July rally did, we aim for a little under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,850).
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GOLD in 2025. The Main Fundamental Trigger Explained
Many of you asked me to provide long-term analysis for Gold
and my predictions for 2025.
Gold remains in a strong bull run since 2019.
The first trigger for a massive bullish rally was Covid .
The end of lockdowns made Gold finally stop the rally.
The second strong bull run was triggered by the initiation of a "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine by Russia in 2022.
The rally become even stronger with the third bullish wave being caused by the start of Israeli Palestinian conflict.
The main drivers that push Gold prices up are the wars, complete uncertainty and the expectations of further escalations.
However, the US elections and promises of Trump to stop the wars and bring peace made Gold stop growing and initiate quite a remarkable bearish rally in November.
Now the market awaits if Trump will manage to deliver his campaign promises .
If his administration finds a way to stop conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Gold will start falling to lower structure levels.
Failure of Trump to bring peace and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in contrary will trigger another bullish rally to new all-time highs.
Pay attention to the actions of Trump after the inauguration and let's hope for the best!
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XAU/USD 07 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Price has been printing erratically by printing a bullish iBOS (which was against internal bearish bias) quickly followed by bearish iBOS which met yesterday's intraday expectation analysis.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH indicating, but not confirming bullish pullback phase initiation.
We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is showing reaction at M15 supply zone. Strong internal high is expected to hold. Technically price should target weak internal low priced at 2,614.635.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD "Gold USD Mines" Metal Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "Gold USD Mines" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade at any point.
however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 2700.00 (or) escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) pair is : Bullish
Reasons:
Increasing demand for gold: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, and investors may seek to buy gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, or market volatility.
Central bank buying: Central banks have been buying gold as a reserve asset, which could support prices and increase demand.
Limited supply of gold: The supply of gold is limited, and mining production is not expected to keep pace with growing demand, which could lead to a shortage and drive up prices.
Weakening US dollar: The US dollar has been weakening against other major currencies, which could make gold more attractive to investors and drive up prices.
Inflation concerns: Inflation concerns are rising, and gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, which could drive up demand and prices.
However, it's essential to consider the following risks:
Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth could reduce demand for gold and drive down prices.
Interest rate hikes: Interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could strengthen the US dollar and reduce demand for gold.
Regulatory changes: Changes in regulations or laws affecting the gold market could impact prices and demand.
Bullish Scenario:
Increasing demand for gold, central bank buying, and limited supply drive up prices
Weakening US dollar and inflation concerns support the bullish case
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment: 80%
Bearish sentiment: 20%
Neutral sentiment: 0%
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Outlook For Next Week Explained
Gold formed a strong bullish pattern on a daily - a cup & handle.
A breakout of its horizontal neckline is an accurate bullish signal.
With a high probability, the market will continue rising next week.
Next resistances - 2674 / 2716
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XAU/USD "GOLD vs US Dollar" Metal Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "GOLD vs US Dollar" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade at any point after the Breakout.
however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 2670 (or) 2680 (or) 2700
Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Fundamental Outlook 📰
Considering these factors, the XAU/USD pair may experience a Bullish trend in the short-term, driven by:
US inflation concerns and the need for a hedge against inflation.
Central banks' increased gold reserves and potential dovish pivot by the Fed.
Decreasing gold supply and increasing gold demand.
Bullish Factors:
Increasing gold demand from central banks and ETFs.
Decreasing gold supply due to reduced mining production.
US inflation concerns and the need for a hedge against inflation.
Potential dovish pivot by the Fed, leading to a decrease in interest rates.
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
XAU/USD "GOLD vs US Dollar" Metal Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "GOLD vs US Dollar" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📉 : You can enter a short trade at anypoint.
however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest high level.
Goal 🎯: 2586.00 or Before
Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Fundamental Outlook 📰 Economic Factors
US Interest Rate Hikes: The Federal Reserve's potential rate hikes in 2025 could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it less attractive to investors.
Stronger US Dollar: A stronger US dollar could make gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially reducing demand.
Improving Global Economic Growth: If global economic growth improves, investors may shift their focus away from safe-haven assets like gold.
Sentiment Analysis
Reduced Investor Appetite: If investor appetite for gold decreases, it could lead to reduced demand and lower prices.
Increased Gold ETF Outflows: Increased outflows from gold ETFs could indicate reduced investor interest in gold.
Other Factors
Increased Gold Supply: An increase in gold supply due to increased mining production or recycling could lead to lower prices.
Cryptocurrency Competition: Increased competition from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal Market Bullish Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a trade after the breakout of White MA 2,680
however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low level should be in retreat.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low level.
Goal 🎯:
Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
XAU/USD 19 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's analysis played out as expected with price targeting weak internal low, printing a bearish iBOS.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming bullish pullback phase initiation. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ where we could see a reaction. Price could potentially trade up to M15 supply level before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,583.915
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
GOLD (XAUUSD): Massive Breakout
FED rate decision and FOMC made Gold very bearish yesterday.
The price violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Its breakout signifies a strong bearish pressure.
It opens a potential for more price depreciation.
Next support - 2563
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XAUUSD: Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.XAUUSD is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.110, MACD = -4.500, ADX = 23.016) as it is trading under the 1D MA50 and is approaching the 1D MA100. That was the trendline that contained the correction on November 14th at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up and delivered a strong rebound. So far it seems that Gold is replicating the April-June accumulation phase. As long as the 1D MA100 holds again, we will be bullish, aiming for a strong rebound to the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 2,825).
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XAU/USD 18 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
I have been mapping systematically. Since last analysis, price has been printing erratically, printing a bearish iBOS, followed by a double bullish iBOS and most recently a bearish iBOS.
Price is trading within an established internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ and has minimally tapped in to M15 supply zone. Price is expected to target weak internal low priced at 2,642.830
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 13 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday analysis played out with price targeting weak internal low at priced 2,700.810.
Price has just printed a further bearish iBOS.
Following bearish iBOS we expect a pullback. Current CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
We are now trading within an internal high and fractal low. You will note internal range has been significantly narrowed, however, price could print lower which would extend the depth of the internal range
Intraday Expectation:
Price is expected to indicate pullback initiation by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 12 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
As highlighted in yesterday's analysis dated 11 December 2024, price was expected to print a bullish iBOS to narrow the internal range, and this is precisely how price printed.
Following bullish iBOS, price printed a bearish iBOS.
We are now trading within an established internal range. While price has not yet printed a bearish CHoCH, it has traded up to the premium of the 50% internal EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is currently trading within the premium of internal 50% EQ. Technically, price is expected to target the weak internal low at 2,700.810.
Alternative Scenario:
Price may potentially seek further liquidity to complete a bullish iBOS on the H4, therefore, bearish momentum may face limitations.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD: Neutral on 1D but expecting a bullish breakout soon.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.080, MACD = -4.570, ADX = 25.048) as the price is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100, on the lower band of the 7 month Channel Up. This suggests that there is significant upside potential to Gold on the medium term and the flat 1D MACD indicates high degree of similarity with June 2024 when the price was again ranged between the 1D MA50 and the bottom of the Channel.
All bullish waves that started after lows, reached at least the previosu R1 level and that is our current target (TP = 2,790).
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XAU/USD 03 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD Potentially BearishOANDA:XAUUSD topped out at almost 2800 and there after we have seen some consistent lower lows and lower highs. If price continues to hold around the 2650 area with some significant rejections, we just might see price creating a new lower high and potentially targeting the 2542 key zone area. Although we might see price dropping lower than that, I will rather lock in some profits when price comes to that zone
Always do your analysis before taking any trade. Past results does not guarantee future results
Scenario on XAUUSDOn the chart we have a level marked around which the price has been hovering all the time. This level is located around the price of 2660-2640. A correction is forming which is still not complete for me. If it cannot break through this resistance at this moment, it is quite likely that the price may correct somewhere towards the level of 2500 or even a lower price. For me, this market is still undecided and for now I am staying out of the position. If what I described happens, I will take a short.
XAU/USD 02-06 December 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
XAUUSD: Expecting a Triangle bullish breakout.Gold is neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 48.029, MACD = -5.300, ADX = 29.357) as it is consolidating inside a Triangle, same as it did within November 13th - 15th. Once the LH trendline breaks, we expect a similar bullish breakout to a new High but on the short term we are happy to just aim for the R1 level (TP = 2,721)
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XAU/USD 28 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD OUTLOOK H4 XAU/USD (Gold) with key features highlighted. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
1. Order Block and FVG:
The upper blue zone represents an Order Block, an area of institutional interest where selling pressure may emerge.
The Fair Value Gap (FVG) is also marked, indicating a potential imbalance that the price might fill before continuing its movement.
2. Supply Zone:
The mid-level blue zone indicates a Supply Zone, where selling pressure is likely to push the price downward if tested.
3. CHoCH (Change of Character):
The dotted line labeled CHoCH signifies a structural shift from bullish to bearish momentum, marking the beginning of a downtrend.
4. Break of Structure (BOS):
BOS levels are identified, confirming bearish continuation with successive lower lows.
5. Future Projections:
If the price breaks through the resistance in the Supply Zone, it could potentially test the higher Order Block before a reversal.
Alternatively, failure to break resistance may result in a continuation of the bearish trend.