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Best Trend Following Strategies for Gold. XAUUSD Day Trading The recent bull run on Gold is a perfect example of a strong trending market. For traders, such sentiment always provides very profitable trading opportunities. In this article, I will share with you 3 best trend-following strategies for day trading Gold that showed extremely high performance this year. So what I did, I back tested 4H/1H time frame since the middle of February when the bull market started. I tested various strategies: price action, SMC, multiple indicators, candlestick patterns ; and I was looking for the ones that showed the highest accuracy and profitability. 1. Moving Averages Crossover The first strategy that showed a very high performance was based on a crossover of 2 moving averages. Exponential MA with 30 length. Simple MA with 9 length. For entry signal, Simple MA should cross Exponential MA from the downside and a candle should close above both MAs'. Stop loss will be below the closest horizontal support. The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss. 13 setups we spotted. 9 of them were profitable. Total winning rate is 69%. 2. Trend-Following Patterns The second strategy that showed a very high performance was based on classic price action patterns. I was looking for bullish patterns like bullish flag, falling wedge, horizontal range, double bottom, head and shoulders, ascending triangle, cup & handle. Bullish confirmation was a breakout and a candle close above a neckline of the pattern. The pattern is considered to be losing if after the breakout of the neckline, the price dropped below its lows. The pattern is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss. From 14th of February to 8th of April, I found 37 bullish patterns. According to the rules that I described above, 31 pattern turned out to be profitable. That gives 83% winning rate. 3. Break of Structure (BoS) The Break of Structure strategy is very old and based on breakouts of current highs. In a bullish trend, after the price violates the levels of a current Higher High HH, a bullish continuation is expected. A long trade is opened after the candle closes above HH or on a retest. With such a strategy, Stop Loss is lying below the last Higher Low HL. The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss For the same period, I identified 21 Breaks of Structure. According to the rules, 18 setups were profitable. Total win rate is 85%. Remember that you should not overestimate the performance of these strategies. They work perfectly only in times of a strong bullish market. Such periods are extremely rare. However, once you see a strong bullish season, these strategies will help you to get maximum from it. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
10
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Accumulation?! Quick update for Gold: since my last post on Sunday, the market formed a classic bullish price action pattern on a daily - the ascending triangle. The pattern signifies a bullish accumulation and a highly probable coming bullish movement. To confirm that we stick to the plan that I shared earlier. We wait for a bullish breakout of 2341 and a daily candle close above. It will open a potential for a bullish continuation to 2375. Alternatively, a bearish breakout of a trend line of a triangle can give us a strong bearish signal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
6
GOLD Trading: 8 Mistakes Traders MUST Avoid in a Bull Market The unstoppable uptrend on Gold may cause irrational and very costly decisions . For the past 6 months, we've seen an unprecedented surge, with new highs being set almost daily. In this article, we will discuss critical mistakes that traders often make in the midst of such a bullish run and explore the strategies to maximize your gains. 1. Technical Indicators Lie Always remember that technical indicators that measure the momentum or strength of a market trend, that show the overbought and oversold conditions, fail miserably in strong bullish or bearish rallies. I am talking about such indicators as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving average convergence/divergence, Stochastic, etc. The fact that one of these indicators show overbought condition or even a bullish divergence most of the time will be a false signal. Above is the example of an overbought RSI on Gold chart on a daily. After the market became overbought, it went 1000 pips higher before the first pullback. 2. It is Never too High When the market starts setting new all-time highs, people typically start saying that the price is already "too high" and start closing their long positions or even open short positions. Remember, that the notion of too high is very subjective. Look at a bullish rally on Gold in 2020. I well remember that when the market updated a yearly high in April, People start staying that it is already "too high". However, the market kept rallying for 4 consequent months, constantly updating the highs. Such a market behavior may persist for a significant period of time, be prepared for that. 3. Beware of Overconfidence Even though bullish rallies may be long, always remember that they can not last forever. At some moment, correction or even bearish reversal will occur. For that reason, open long positions carefully, setting realistic targets. 4. Protect Your Gains and Maximize Your Profits When the market is trading in the uncharted territory, it is almost impossible to predict where it will find the resistance. With a take profit level, you may close the trade too soon. If you see that the market is driven by euphoria and keeps setting new all-time highs, remove take profit and apply a trailing stop instead. Keep that below the recent supports, use ATR or some other classic technical tool. That will help you to benefit from the entire rally. 5. DON'T SELL BULLISH RALLY When the market is driven by greed, euphoria or fear, never go against the market. The chance that you will accurately predict the turning point is close to 0. 6. Beware of Lower Time Frame Bearish Patterns In a strong bullish trend, classic bearish reversal pattern have low accuracy, especially on minutes time frames. Look at a sequence of double tops on 15 minutes time frame. These patterns are a great example of manipulations and how smart money induce retail traders to start shorting. In a such a strong bullish trend, the only strategy to rely on is trend-following trading. 7. Do Not Rely On News In times of strong bullish/bearish rallies, the data in economic calendar and important news releases stop giving the reliable signals. In times of bulls/bearish runs, emotions become the main driver of the markets, not the fundamental data. 8. If You Missed It, Let It Go I can imagine, how terrible you may feel yourself if you did not manage to buy Gold on a good price. It's sad, and it is painful to watch how the market goes higher and higher without you. But always remember a simple rule: if you missed the rally, let it go. With each new high that the market sets, your potential gains drop dramatically. I hope that these tips will help you not get burned while Gold is on fire. Stay calm and patient, and do not let your emotions intervene. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
XAUUSD: Close to the best medium term buy entry.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.016, MACD = 12.800, ADX = 25.902) as it completed today the second green 1D candle in a row. We don't think that the current bearish wave of the 1 month Channel Up has bottomed yet, since the HL trendline is a little lower around 2,315. We are prepared to buy after the 1D RSI crosses over its MA trendline and validates the bullish breakout. As with the May 20th HH, we are targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,475). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
XAUUSD: Sell signal after this 4H MA50 bearish breakout.Gold has turned bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 42.104, MACD = 6.500, ADX = 34.412) as it crossed today under its 4H MA50. This is the first time it does so after going that high since April 22nd. That was the start and validated sell signal for the Bearish Wave of the Channel Up. Consequently, we go short on Gold, aiming like then, at a -5.20% decline (TP = 2,325). This could contact the 1D MA50 too. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
XAUUSD: Still bearish short term.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.129, MACD = 17.800, ADX = 29.397) as since the April 30th Low it has been trading sideways in anticipation of the 1D MA50 test. The 1D RSI has been trading under its MA line for almost 1 month, which keeps the momentum bearish on the medium term, so we have to stay on this side of the trend. Our target is that potential contact with the 1D MA50 (TP = 2,270), which is marginally over the 0.382, a standard technical target for corrections. If the Channel Down breaks downwards, we will be expecting Gold to bottom near the 0.618 Fibonacci level or on the 1D MA100 if it hits that first. That will be a low risk level to start buying again for the long term. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
Technical Analysis DOES NOT WORK in GOLD Trading Does technical analysis really work in Gold trading? In this article, we will discuss whether the traditional, classic methods of technical analysis: support and resistance, breakouts, patterns can be reliable in this specific market. We will explore the dynamics of Gold prices so far this year and discuss the most efficient way to trade Gold. So if you are a gold trader or simple interested in the market analysis, you should not miss this eye-opening discussion! First, let's discuss how Gold market behaves from the beginning of the year from technical analysis perspective. Gold started this year in a strong bullish trend, the market opened after setting a new higher high on a daily the second of January. After a formation of a higher high, the market became overbought and a correctional movement initiated. The price formed a bullish flag pattern and reached the level of the last higher low - a very important support. After the test of structure, the price bounced and violated a resistance line of a flag with a strong bullish candle. From the technical perspective, it was a very strong trend-following signal and a bullish continuation was anticipated. However, it turned out that it was a false signal, and instead of going higher, the market dropped, setting a new lower low. Why this false signal is so important is that the breakouts, key levels and price action analysis are the most reliable on a daily time frame. Such a strong combination: bullish trend, bullish pattern, key support; has a very high accuracy on a daily. That was the first time this year, when technical analysis on a daily was completely screwed . It felt like the market was turning bearish. The price violated a level of the higher low, setting a new lower low. For Smart Money traders, it is a very important event that is called a Change of Character. It strongly confirms a bearish reversal on the market. One more bearish confirmation that I spotted was a completed head and shoulders pattern formation with a confirmed violation of its neckline. That signal also confirms a bearish reversal. And again, these 2 bearish confirmations were the false signals. The price went back above the neckline and a bullish movement initiated. This time, a classic price action pattern did not work , and smart money concepts gave a false signal. Then I spotted a very bullish signal - the price violated a major falling trend line and closed above that. It clearly indicated that the market was returning to a global bullish trend. And again, that signal was completely false. And the price dropped. Trend line breakout in the direction of the trend - a classic trend-following confirmation did not work. Then we saw 2 strong bearish signals: a bearish breakout of a rising trend line and a key horizontal support with a high momentum bearish candle. It felt like now it confirms that the market is bearish and it should drop lower to the closest key support. And again, technicals failed miserably and after a retest of a broken horizontal structure and a trend line, the price just went higher completely neglecting them From the beginning of the year, technical analysis: key levels, patterns, smart money, breakouts do not work on a daily. All the signals that were spotted so far failed. If you just started trading, you may easily come to the conclusion that technical analysis does not make any sense on Gold. And you will be completely right, in that period it does not work at all. I am trading Gold and Forex for more than 9 years, and year after year I noticed that there always are the periods when some techniques, some strategies do not work. Sometimes these periods are very short, but some time they can be quite long. The only proven way to overcome such periods is consistency and proper risk management . Risking a tiny portion of your trading account per trade, you will be able to survive the stubborn market. The market always returns to normal conditions and starts respecting the technicals again. However, no one knows when. There is a famous quote by John Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent"" And only proper risk management will keep you solvent longer than the market stays irrational. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
GOLD (XAUUSD): One More Bearish Wave is Coming?! 🥇 I would say that the month of April was very weak for Gold. Even though the market updated the ATH and we saw quite a strong rally at the beginning of the month, bulls quite quickly lost the momentum. We can even conclude that the rally finally stopped and the market started to consolidate within a horizontal range. For the last 10 days we see a steady shift in sentiment. The price formed the first strong bearish candle and we also set the first lower high. This week, we see the sign of strength of the sellers again with a formation of one more strong bearish candle. After a strong bearish movement on Tuesday, we can also confirm a formation of a bearish reversal pattern: an inverted cup & handle formation. At the moment, the last resort for the buyers is a wide horizontal demand zone: 2265 - 2290. That structure, is also the neckline of the pattern. Its bearish violation will confirm the initiation of a correctional movement on Gold. A daily candle close below the underlined area will push the prices lower. The goal for the sellers will be 2220 support. I will change my bias to bullish, only in case of a violation of a resistance area based on a handle. If a daily candle closes above that, I will anticipate a bullish continuation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
1