XAUUSD OUTLOOK H4 XAU/USD (Gold) with key features highlighted. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
1. Order Block and FVG:
The upper blue zone represents an Order Block, an area of institutional interest where selling pressure may emerge.
The Fair Value Gap (FVG) is also marked, indicating a potential imbalance that the price might fill before continuing its movement.
2. Supply Zone:
The mid-level blue zone indicates a Supply Zone, where selling pressure is likely to push the price downward if tested.
3. CHoCH (Change of Character):
The dotted line labeled CHoCH signifies a structural shift from bullish to bearish momentum, marking the beginning of a downtrend.
4. Break of Structure (BOS):
BOS levels are identified, confirming bearish continuation with successive lower lows.
5. Future Projections:
If the price breaks through the resistance in the Supply Zone, it could potentially test the higher Order Block before a reversal.
Alternatively, failure to break resistance may result in a continuation of the bearish trend.
Xauusdtrading
Gold Price Outlook: Key Insights for Next Weeks Trading DecisionGold just had its best week in recent times! This video analyzes the key factors driving the price surge – including geopolitical events and the latest US economic data.
As Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive demand, this video illustrates my trading idea. Join me as I analyze Gold’s price action, identify critical levels, and share actionable insights for the coming week. Let me know yours!
#gold #goldinvesting #marketanalysis #usdata #pmi #consumersentiment #inflation #fed #tradingstrategy #forex
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAU/USD 25-29 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is projected to move downward toward either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
After printing bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price traded down to discount of 50% internal EQ.
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 22 November 2024, the internal structure was bearish, with an expectation for price to target the weak internal low. However, this scenario did not materialise as price printed a bullish iBOS by the close of 22 November 2024. This could be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions across multiple fronts.
The CHoCH positioning, marked by a blue dotted line, us currently close but may be repositioned, as there are currently no definitive signs of pullback initiation.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish policy stance, ongoing and increasing geopolitical uncertainties, Gold prices are likely to experience continued elevated volatility. Traders should exercise caution and refine their risk management strategies to navigate this high-volatility environment effectively.
H4 Chart:
XAU/USD 20 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 12 November 2024, I highlighted the anticipation of a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) as an indication of a bullish phase initiation. Price has now confirmed this by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range and remains consistent with the broader pullback requirements of higher timeframes. This internal range forms the basis for today's expectations.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to the premium of the internal 50% equilibrium (EQ), where it is currently positioned. Alternatively, price may trade higher to reach the H4 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,536.855.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
As stated in yesterday's analysis, I mentioned that it would not be surprising if price printed a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This expectation materialised; however, the bearish momentum was short-lived as price subsequently printed a bullish iBOS.
Price has now printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which allows us to establish an internal range. Currently, price is trading near the extreme of a strong internal low and has wicked into the M15 demand zone, showing a reaction.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price is expected to target the weak internal high at 2,641.940, reacting from the current M15 demand zone.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe remains in a bullish pullback phase and is trading within the premium of its internal 50% equilibrium (EQ), where a reaction is observed. Consequently, it would not be surprising if the M15 timeframe printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish policy stance and geopolitical tensions persisting, Gold price volatility is expected to remain elevated. Traders should stay cautious and remain prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD: Crossed the 4H MA50 and starting the rally to 2790.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.921, MACD = -20.360, ADX = 41.087) validating the significant upside potential it has inside this Channel Up. On Thursday it bottomed on the HL trendline and today crossed over the 4H MA50. Every time it has done so on this pattern (only once it failed), it hit the R1 level. Consequently this gives a clear target on the previous high (TP = 2,790).
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XAU/USD "Gold vs USD" Market Money Heist Plan on Bearish SideHallo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist XAU/USD "Gold vs USD" Market Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Pink Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
XAU/USD 18-22 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is projected to move downward toward either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my weekly analysis dated 27 October 2024, I forecasted that price could potentially make new highs, thereby shifting the bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) closer to recent price action. This repositioning would serve as a trigger for a bearish pullback phase initiation.
As anticipated, this scenario unfolded with CHoCH shifting nearer to the current price and ultimately printing a bearish CHoCH. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range (highlighted in blue), trading in the discount zone of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ) and approaching a Daily demand zone, where a reaction is likely.
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to react upon reaching the Daily demand zone and could trade upward to target the daily internal high. However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS).
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bearish.
-> Internal -> Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Analysis remains the same as previous bias from my analysis dated 12 November 2024.
Price has printed both a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and a subsequent bearish Break of Structure (BOS), confirming the need for a pullback across all higher timeframes (HTFs).
Currently, price action remains in alignment with the broader HTF pullback requirements.
Intraday Expectation:
The expectation for the intraday session is that price will print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) to indicate the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. The positioning of this bullish CHoCH is indicated by the blue dotted line on the chart.
However, it is also possible that price could extend to a new low, bringing the CHoCH positioning much closer to the current price action.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold prices is anticipated to persist. We should exercise caution and remain vigilant in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan Ahead of FED
Ahead of FED Powell Speech today, Gold finally stopped falling.
For now, a key daily support that the price tested earlier holds.
To catch a pullback trade from that, pay attention to an inverted
cup & handle pattern on an hourly time frame.
Wait for a bullish breakout of its neckline - an hourly candle close above
that will give you a strong bullish signal.
A pullback will be excepted at least to 2580 level then.
Alternatively, a daily candle close below the underlined daily support
will be a strong bearish signal.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
XAUUSD: Bottom of the Channel Up, RSI almost oversold. Buy.Gold turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.369, MACD = 1.240, ADX = 48.026) as is closed yesterday below the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 4 months (July 2nd). The downtrend is the bearish wave of the May 20th Channel Up and is so far the strongest of the pattern. Technically Gold is a buy for as long as the 1D MA100 holds. Also the 1D RSI is the closest it's been to the 30.000 oversold level since October 6th 2023. Naturally that makes it a strong buy opportunity. Our target is the 0.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,705).
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XAUUSD Strategic Buy at Support ZoneI am taking this buy entry based on several technical factors. Firstly, the RSI is at 24.22, indicating a significant oversold condition. This suggests that the price might be ready for an upward correction, as oversold levels often precede a rebound. Additionally, the price is near an important support area around $2,611, a level that has shown previous market reactions.
Although the recent trend has been bearish, I believe this entry has the potential to capitalize on a short-term pullback. I have set the entry price at $2,611.07, with a stop loss at $2,570.38 to limit potential losses if the price continues to decline. My take profit is positioned at $2,644.33, aiming for a reasonable target that captures a potential rebound. My plan is to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor price action at this level to confirm if the buy decision is validated by a favorable reaction.
XAU/USD "Gold Dollar" Market Money Heist Plan on Bearish Side.Ola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰
This is our master plan to Heist XAU/USD "Gold Dollar" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe, Recent / Nearest High Point.
Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 3h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Short side, If you've got a money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Gold Price Outlook: Key Insights for Next Weeks Trading DecisionGold prices dropped to a three-week low, as investors dumped the Gold commodity for the U.S. dollar following Donald Trump's presidential victory. With expectations of a stronger dollar and potential inflation-driving tariffs under Trump, the Federal Reserve may rethink its easing cycle. This video breaks down key market moves and sentiment shifts post-election, as traders reassess their ‘Trump trade’ strategies amid tariff uncertainty.
Looking ahead, next week's U.S. economic data releases—including inflation and retail sales—along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, are set to shape Gold’s direction. Join us to analyze the behavioural trends impacting XAU/USD and prepare for new trading opportunities in the week ahead.
#GoldMarket #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #TrumpEffect #USDollar #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketOutlook
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAUUSD: Holding Short Positions Over the WeekendAfter rising to around 2704, gold prices have retraced, and the resistance remains strong, causing the price to fluctuate near the support level. Market sentiment remains cautious, making it difficult to form a clear trend in the short term. If you prefer not to hold positions over the weekend, it's recommended to close your positions before the market closes.
If you choose to hold positions over the weekend, I would personally suggest considering holding short positions before the market closes. Given the current market weakness, gold prices may face further downward pressure.
For those with less favorable account conditions, it's advisable to set stop-loss orders (SL) to effectively manage risk. Unpredictable news or events over the weekend can cause unexpected volatility, and having a stop-loss in place will help prevent significant losses from sudden market movements.
XAU/USD 07 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As highlighted in my analysis dated 31 October 2024: We should remain aware that the daily timeframe has been showing early signs of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation, suggesting that price could print a bearish iBOS despite H4 internal structure being bullish.
This printed as anticipated, with price printing a bearish iBOS that also confirmed the swing structure.
Price is now trading within an established swing range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH, indicating the start of a bullish pullback phase.
Note: Due to the Fed’s softer stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we should remain mindful that volatility in Gold is likely to persist.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As detailed in yesterday's intraday analysis dated 06 November 2024, I noted that price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price printed to this expectation, successfully targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS.
Following this, price has printed an additional bearish iBOS and a bullish CHoCH, confirming the internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to target the weak internal low after reacting from either the premium of 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone.
Note: Considering the Fed’s softer stance, and rising geopolitical tensions, price volatility is likely to remain elevated.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD: Preparing for a bullish reversal.Gold is about to go from neutral to bearish on its 4H timeframe (RSI = 45.410, MACD = -2.540, ADX = 22.042) as after breaking under its 4H MA50, it has failed to cross it on two attempts. This pullback is part of the techical bearish wave of the 3 month Channel Up and it is the 3rd in total. The two waves before that found a bottom near the 0.382 Fibonacci level and we are already just over that level. We expect some more sideways movement and ideally when the 4H RSI hits 35.000, begin the bullish reversal. Our aim is a minimum of +7.00% rise (TP = 2,900) for the next HH.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Buying After Pullback
With a yesterday's bearish movement, Gold dropped to
a key intraday/daily horizontal support.
A cup & handle pattern formation on that is a reliable signal to buy.
With a high probability, the price will reach 2769 level soon.
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XAUUSD: Bullish trend still intact.Gold is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.558, MACD = 11.460, ADX = 25.892) as supported by the 4H MA50, it is approaching the top of the 3 month Channe Up. Compared to the two bullish waves before it, the 4H RSI shows that there is still at least another 2 days on this uptrend. Stay bullish (TP = 2,800) and sell on the first sign of rejection near the top.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GOLD (XAUUSD): One More Bullish Wave is Coming?!
Gold is currently stuck within a horizontal range on a daily.
The price is approaching its upper boundary at the moment.
Because the trend is strongly bullish, chances will be high to see
a further bullish continuation.
Your reliable confirmation will be a breakout and a daily candle close
above the underlined resistance.
The next goal for the buyers will be 2780.
Alternatively, the market may continue consolidating and trading within the range.
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Gold: A Rebound to 2730 is Not a ProblemYesterday, gold experienced a dramatic decline. I'm curious how everyone fared—did you make a profit or incur a loss? If you made money, you can continue to profit today; if you lost, follow my lead today, and I’m sure I can help you.
In scenarios like yesterday's drop, a rebound is inevitable. Remember this: after a significant decline, a rebound will follow, and after a significant rise, a correction will occur. These are major trading opportunities that every trader should seize.
For this rebound, we won’t set overly ambitious targets. Although my psychological expectation is above 2740, I’m not willing to take that risk. I’d prefer to close my buy positions before hitting 2740 and patiently wait for it to rise before considering selling.
That’s all for now. If you want to see more detailed and specific signals, reach out to me, and you'll gain access.
XAUUSD: extending the rally on the 1H MA50.Gold is highly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.334, MACD = 39.540, ADX = 45.426) but that has no effect on the short term timeframes such as on 1H, where the nearly 2 week Channel Up continues to rise. Technically it will keep extending it as long as the 1H MA50 holds. Every rebound on or below it has been around +2.50%. The last test was exactly on it (yesterday), so we remain bullish and expect at least a +2.23% rally (TP = 2,775).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold with two probabilities for 10/22/2024Gold with a high probability to make the decision for 10/22/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
XAUUSD: Holding the 4H MA50 is heavily bullish.Gold is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.187, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 21.504) as it is consolidating and hasn't yet made a new High since September 26th. On the brightside however, it held again the 4H MA50, which establishes that level as the new support. When being on a Bullish Wave inside this 3 month Channel Up, every time it consolidated on the 4H MA50 after a bottom rebound, it never broke it and the Bullish Wave pushed it to a new HH. We expect a new +7.60% rally (TP = 2,800) to peak by early November.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to push up and look for a reaction above, this came earlier than expected but we got the move as anticipated down into the lower regions completing KOG’s bias of the week and day. It’s at that lower level we got the perfect tap and bounce giving the long trade back upside allowing us to use the red boxes and Excalibur to trade up to where we closed.
A good week on the markets again, not only on Gold but all the other pairs we trade giving us nearly a full house of completed targets, bar NAS.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we’re going to keep it simple and as usual update traders through the week with our plans.
We have a resistance level above 2663-5 which if held during the early session we feel could give traders the opportunity to attempt the short trade back down into the 2650-55 region and below that 2635-30. We’re likely to get tap and bounce on the move, so keep an eye on the red boxes for the reaction level.
We’re going to play a little caution here on this bullish move at the moment and say that if we manage to break below the 2650, we will hold back on attempting the long trades, reason being there is a structure on the chart that is sticking out and it entails caution.
Like we said, simple one this week, only looking for that move unless we break above 2675, otherwise, another curveball on the way!
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 2635 with targets above 2670 and above that 2675.
Bearish on break of 2635 with targets below 2595
Red boxes :
Break above 2665 for 2675 and 2680 extension of the move
Break below 2650 for 2640 and 2630 extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG