Key Levels and Targets for Gold Trading
Following Friday's significant decline, gold's technical indicators are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a short-term buying opportunity at lower levels. The upper resistance zone is between 2508 and 2514, which appears strong based on current market conditions.
The probability of a direct breakout above this zone is low. Therefore, if the price reaches this resistance area, consider short-selling opportunities. For this week, the initial short-term target for the downside is in the 2478-2472 range.
Xauusdtrading
Trading Area for Gold based on S/RMy idea is based on the Support & Resistance levels observed on 1H TF
I'm anticipating price bounce from the identified support areas (Support-1 & Support-2) My plan is to enter long position when the price reach these support levels and close the trade at the resistance level
Bias: Bullish
Entry: Long from the Support-1 & Support-2
Take Profit: at Resistance area
Stop Loss: Below Support-2
Good Luck
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Decision Ahead
The release of the today's fundamentals is favorable for bulls in the Gold market.
The price is now testing the resistance cluster based on the current All Time High.
As always, our strategy is to wait for is bullish breakout.
A daily candle close above that will confirm a violation.
A bullish movement to 2550 will be expected then.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Support and Resistance Levels
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
support and resistance levels to focus on Gold.
Resistance 1: 2525 - 2531 area
Support 1: 2470 -2484 area
Support 2: 2432 - 2447 area
Support 3: 2353 - 2381 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Accumulation Again?!
I see clear signs of a bullish accumulation on Gold again.
As previously, the price sets higher lows, setting equal highs.
Looks like the market is preparing for a breakout attempt of the underlined red resistance.
IF the price breaks and closes above that, it will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2540 level then.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Movement to All Time High
Gold closed in a very strong bullish mood this week.
The price retested a recently broken horizontal resistance,
bounced and violated a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern on a 4H time frame.
Probabilities are high that the market will continue growing next week.
Next goal for buyers will be the resistance based on a current All Time High.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): The Next Resistance?!
As Gold updated the ATH on Friday,
here is the next potential resistance on focus.
It is based on a major rising trend line on a daily,
based on 4 important previous highs.
I think that we will see a pullback from that.
I will post the update after its test.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Still Bullish Outlook
As I predicted on our Wednesday's live stream
Gold keeps going up.
Analyzing the intraday price action, I spotted one more bullish confirmation.
This time the price violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
We see a positive bullish reaction after a retest of its broken upper boundary.
I think that the market will reach 2450 level soon.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Detailed Support and Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Rising Trend Line
Vertical Support 1: Rising Trend Line
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 2348 - 2364 area
Support 2: 2333 - 2340 area
Support 3: 2265 - 2298 area
Resistance 1: 2468 - 2483 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Key Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Rising Trend Line
Vertical Support 1: Rising Trend Line
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 2348 - 2364 area
Support 2: 2333 - 2340 area
Support 3: 2265 - 2298 area
Resistance 1: 2468 - 2483 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Outlook Explained
Analyzing Gold on intraday time frames this morning,
I spotted multiple bullish clues.
The price started to nicely respect a rising trend line on a 4H,
after a one of its test, a cup & handle pattern was formed.
I think that the market has a nice potential to retest a current high.
Goal - 2467
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Supply and Demand Zones to Watch
Gold closed in indecision this week, respecting 2 supply and demand zones.
The price went rejected from an expanding supply zone based
on a resistance line of a rising parallel channel and a horizontal resistance.
The market also respected a horizontal demand zone based on
a horizontal support cluster.
After the market opening, I will monitor the reaction of the price to these zones
and will look for trading opportunities from there.
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Why a 30 to 50 Pips Fluctuation Means Little for XAU/USDUnderstanding Pips and Price Context
In the world of forex trading, a pip (percentage in point) represents the smallest price movement in the market.
For commodities like gold (XAU/USD), a pip is typically 0.01.
Therefore, a fluctuation of 30 to 50 pips in gold translates to a movement of 3 to 5 USD in price.
Currently, the price of gold (XAU/USD) hovers around 2400 USD per ounce.
In this context, a movement of 30 to 50 pips, equating to 3 to 5 USD, is relatively minor. To put this into perspective, it’s akin to a stock priced at 100 USD experiencing a movement of only 0.13 to 0.20 USD.
Gold's Historical Volatility
Gold is renowned for its volatility, influenced by a myriad of factors including geopolitical tensions, economic data, inflation rates, and currency fluctuations.
Historical data demonstrates that gold prices can swing dramatically within short periods.
For instance, during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical strife, gold prices can move by tens or even hundreds of dollars in a matter of days or even hours.
Geopolitical Events: During geopolitical crises, such as wars or major political upheavals, gold prices often experience significant spikes as investors flock to safe-haven assets.
Economic Indicators: Economic data releases, like non-farm payrolls, GDP figures, and interest rate decisions, can cause substantial and rapid fluctuations in gold prices.
Market Sentiment: Changes in market sentiment, driven by news, investor behavior, and speculation, can also lead to large price movements.
Why 30 to 50 Pips is Insignificant
Given gold's price of 2400 USD per ounce and its historical volatility, a fluctuation of 30 to 50 pips is relatively insignificant. Here's why:
Percentage Impact: A 50-pip movement at a price level of 2400 USD is just 0.21% of the total price. This is a minor change, especially in a market as volatile as gold.
Daily Fluctuations: It's not uncommon for gold prices to fluctuate by more than 1% within a single trading day. This means price movements of 24 USD or more are typical, overshadowing a 3 to 5 USD change.
Trading Noise: In the context of gold trading, small pip movements often represent normal market noise rather than meaningful trends. Professional traders focus on larger movements to make informed decisions, as these are more indicative of market direction.
Practical Implications for Traders
For traders and investors, understanding the relative insignificance of small pip fluctuations is crucial. Here are some practical takeaways:
Risk Management: Traders should set their stop-loss and take-profit levels considering the high volatility of gold. Small pip fluctuations should not trigger premature exits from trades.
Strategic Focus: Swing trends and significant price levels (like psychological barriers at round numbers or technical important zones) are more important than minor intraday movements.
Market Analysis: Analyzing gold requires looking at broader economic and geopolitical factors rather than getting caught up in small pip changes.
Conclusion:
In summary, a 30 to 50 pip fluctuation in XAU/USD is relatively meaningless when considering the broader context of gold's price and inherent volatility.
At a price level of 2400 USD per ounce, such movements are minor and often lost in the daily trading noise.
Traders and investors should focus on larger price movements and underlying market factors to make informed decisions in the volatile gold market.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Detailed Technical Outlook
Here is a quick recap of my Gold analysis on a today's live stream.
The market is currently trading within a bullish flag pattern on a daily.
After the price reached a daily horizontal support, it bounced
and tested a resistance cluster based on a trend line of the flag and a horizontal structure.
I believe that a bullish rally will resume after a confirmed breakout of the underlined horizontal area and a trend line with a daily candle close above.
Today's US news can be a catalyst.
The price may also respect the underlined resistance cluster, following the negative news.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan For Today
Gold is currently stuck on a key daily/intraday horizontal support level.
I see a completed double bottom pattern on that on a 4H time frame.
To buy the market with a confirmation, look for a bullish breakout
of its neckline.
4H candle close above 2404 will confirm the violation.
A pullback will be expected at least to 2420 level then.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Updated Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my structure analysis for Gold.
Resistance 1: 2495 - 2505 area
Support 1: 2422 - 2450 area
Support 2: 2391 - 2394 area
Support 3: 2348 - 2356 area
The resistance that I underlined is based on a psychological, whole number price level.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Accumulation is Over!
Gold was consolidating within a range on a daily since the end of May.
The release of the Friday's fundamentals made the market very bullish
and the price successfully violated the upper boundary of the range.
Such a violation opens a potential for a further bullish continuation.
Next resistance - 2425
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Best Trend Following Strategies for Gold. XAUUSD Day Trading
The recent bull run on Gold is a perfect example of a strong trending market. For traders, such sentiment always provides very profitable trading opportunities.
In this article, I will share with you 3 best trend-following strategies for day trading Gold that showed extremely high performance this year.
So what I did, I back tested 4H/1H time frame since the middle of February when the bull market started.
I tested various strategies: price action, SMC, multiple indicators, candlestick patterns ; and I was looking for the ones that showed the highest accuracy and profitability.
1. Moving Averages Crossover
The first strategy that showed a very high performance was based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
Exponential MA with 30 length.
Simple MA with 9 length.
For entry signal, Simple MA should cross Exponential MA from the downside and a candle should close above both MAs'.
Stop loss will be below the closest horizontal support.
The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss.
13 setups we spotted.
9 of them were profitable.
Total winning rate is 69%.
2. Trend-Following Patterns
The second strategy that showed a very high performance was based on classic price action patterns.
I was looking for bullish patterns like bullish flag, falling wedge, horizontal range, double bottom, head and shoulders, ascending triangle, cup & handle.
Bullish confirmation was a breakout and a candle close above a neckline of the pattern.
The pattern is considered to be losing if after the breakout of the neckline, the price dropped below its lows.
The pattern is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss.
From 14th of February to 8th of April, I found 37 bullish patterns.
According to the rules that I described above, 31 pattern turned out to be profitable.
That gives 83% winning rate.
3. Break of Structure (BoS)
The Break of Structure strategy is very old and based on breakouts of current highs.
In a bullish trend, after the price violates the levels of a current Higher High HH, a bullish continuation is expected.
A long trade is opened after the candle closes above HH or on a retest.
With such a strategy, Stop Loss is lying below the last Higher Low HL.
The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss
For the same period, I identified 21 Breaks of Structure.
According to the rules, 18 setups were profitable.
Total win rate is 85%.
Remember that you should not overestimate the performance of these strategies. They work perfectly only in times of a strong bullish market. Such periods are extremely rare.
However, once you see a strong bullish season, these strategies will help you to get maximum from it.
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