Learn Best Lot Size for Gold Trading (XAUUSD)
If you trade Gold with fix lot, I prepared for you a simple manual how to calculate the best lot size for your XAUUSD trading account.
Step 1
Find at least the last 10 trades that you took on Gold.
Step 2
Measure stop losses of all these trades in pips
Step 3
Find the trade with the biggest stop loss
In our example, the biggest stop loss is 680 pips
Step 4
Open position size calculator for XAUUSD
Step 5
Input your account size, 1,5% as the risk ratio.
In "stop loss in pips" field, write down the pip value of your biggest stop loss - 680 pips in our example.
Press, calculate.
For our example, the best lot size for Gold will be 0.22.
The idea is that your maximum loss should not exceed 1,5% of your account balance, while the average loss will be around 1%.
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Xauusdtrading
XAUUSD: Top is in. Targeting 2,055.Gold has had a strong rally after holding the 1W MA50 on the week of February 12 2024 and remains almost overbought on its 1W technical outlook in the past three weeks (RSI = 68.498, MACD = 43.750, ADX = 37.013). The grand pattern on 1W has been a Channel Up dating back to late 2019. As shown on the chart, the last two HL were on the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 respectively, indicating a healthy long term uptrend.
Since March 2022 however, every time the 1W RSI reached the overbought 70.000 level, it was a Sell Signal. This time the price has even breached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, as it did on March 7th 2022. The minimum retrace on such a signal has been -7.59%. This is what we are aiming for (TP = 2,055) and potentially we may see a close contact with the 1W MA50 near that level. Basically all corrections inside the Channel Up have hit the 1W MA50.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Key Levels to Watch This Week 🥇
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Resistance 1: 2182 - 2195 area
Support 1: 2143 - 2148 area
Support 2: 2077 - 2088 area
Support 3: 2054 - 2065 area
Support 4: 2035 - 2044 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): When Will It STOP?! 🥇
Bullish rally on Gold in unstoppable.
Here are the next important resistance to watch for a potential market reversal.
Resistance 1: 2236 - 2267 area
Resistance 2: 2295 - 2315 area
Pay close attention to these structures next week.
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XAUUSD: Overbought and in need of a correction.Gold is vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 80.321, MACD = 21.500, ADX = 21.500) with the recent rally hitting the top of the HH trendline of candle bodies of the four month Channel Up. The 4H RSI is displaying a massively overbought sideways structure which since October has marked market tops. The corrections that followed these three peaks ranged from -4% to -5.60%. Consequently our bearish target is a minimum of -4.00% decline on the 4H MA200 (TP = 2,070).
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How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things
There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements.
In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument.
1 - Identify the market trend
When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends.
Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action.
In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year.
Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months.
Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time.
Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months.
Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish.
2 - Identify the directional bias
The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market.
In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term.
3 - Execute structure analysis
Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures.
That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities.
When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels.
Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past.
4 - Look for price action patterns
Price action patterns are the language of the market.
Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants.
You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market.
Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag.
5 - Analyze candlesticks
Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations.
You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle.
Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal.
Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities.
You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators.
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Best Technical Analysis Strategies for Trading Gold
If you want to trade Gold, but you don't know what strategy to trade, I prepared for you the list of 4 simple and profitable gold trading strategies.
Please, note that my list includes the indicator, swing, price action and smart money strategies, so you will certainly find the one that suites you.
Also, all the strategies will be strictly structure based.
It means that no matter which strategy you choose, you should start your analysis with identification of key levels on a daily time frame.
Example of structure analysis on Gold.
1. Breakout trading on a daily time frame
With that approach, we will be aiming to catch swing moves.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout - a daily candle close below a key support. A bearish continuation will be anticipated to the next closest daily support then.
Your bullish signal will be a bullish breakout of a key daily resistance.
Then you can buy aggressively or on a retest, expecting a bullish continuation to the next strong resistance.
In the example above, bearish breakout of a key daily support was a strong bearish signal that triggered a massive selloff.
This strategy is based only on a daily time frame analysis,
the next 3 strategies will be more sophisticated and involve multiple time frames analysis.
2. Price action confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should patiently wait for a test of one of the key structures that you spotted on a daily.
After that, you should monitor the reaction of the price to that on 4h/1h time frames.
Your signal to buy will be a formation of a bullish reversal price action pattern on a key support, while your bearish confirmation will be a bearish pattern on a key resistance.
Once you spotted a confirmation, you can anticipate a bullish/bearish movement, at least to the closest 4h structure.
In the example above, Gold tested a key daily support. The price formed a double bottom formation on that. Its neckline breakout was a strong bullish signal.
A bullish movement initiated to the closest 4H resistance then.
3. Moving average confirmation strategy
For that method, you will need 2 moving averages: simple MA with 9 length and exponential MA with 20 length.
Once the market tests a key support, you should look for a crossover.
A simple MA should be above the exponential MA.
It will be your bullish signal.
After a test of a key resistance, look for an opposite crossover.
A simple MA should be below the exponential MA.
It will give you a strong signal to sell.
Here is how the MA crossover would help you to predict a bullish movement on Gold on an hourly time frame.
4. Smart money confirmation strategy
With that approach, you should look for a break of key daily structure on 4h/1h time frames.
After a violation of a key support, you should look for a bullish imbalance so that the price should return above the broken structure. That will be your signal to buy.
After a violation of a key resistance, look for a bearish imbalance. The price should come back below a broken structure. It will be your signal to sell.
After a test and a violation of a key daily resistance, Gold formed a bearish imbalance on a 4H time frame. It was a strong bearish signal.
All these strategies are very efficient. However, they will work after you learn to correctly identify key structures.
Let me know in a comment section which strategy do you prefer.
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XAUUSD: Bearish Wave underway to 1,975.Gold is about to cross from a neutral technical 1D outlook (RSI = 45.543, MACD = -1.200, ADX = 26.629) to a bearish one as it got rejected on the 1D MA50, under which it will close for the third straight 1D candle. The 1D RSI suggests that this is a very slow medium term decline, as is evident by the 6 week Channel Down, that in the near term it will find a bottom.
That can potentially be near the 1D MA200 and on the short term we remain bearish, targeting the S1 level (TP1 = 2,005) initially and in extension, if Gold closes a 1D candle under the 1D MA100, sell again aiming for the LL trendline of the Channel Down (TP2 = 1,975) near the S2 level and over the 1D MA200.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Key Levels & Structure Analysis 🥇
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Horizontal Structures
Horizontal Support 1: 2009 - 2014 area
Horizontal Support 2: 2001 - 2006 area
Horizontal Support 3: 1965 - 1977 area
Horizontal Resistance 1: 2055 - 2065 area
Horizontal Resistance 2: 2077 - 2088 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD: Rejection at the top of the Channel Down.Gold is neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.363, MACD = 190.210, ADX = 36.018) with a 4H RSI that turned overbought at 70.000 intraday. This just so happened to take place exactly at the LH trendline of the monthly Channel Down as long as daily closes under the R1 level (2,062.00), the medium term trend remains bearish. Two short entries are recommended here, one to target towards the S1 level (TP1 = 2,005) and the other the bottom of the Channel Down and near the S2 level (TP2 = 1,980). The latter will be closed earlier if the price breaks over the 4H MA50 before hitting the target.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Bearish Setup 🥇
We got 2 peculiar breakouts on Gold.
As you know, the market was consolidating for roughly 1 week.
Consolidating, the price formed a triangle and a horizontal range.
We see a breakout of both the support of a triangle and the range.
It confirms the local strength of the sellers.
The price may drop to 2006 support.
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XAUUSD: First time under the 1D MA50 Gold broke under the 1D MA50 for the first time since October 13th and turned bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.420, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 35.745). The pattern that has emerged is a Channel Down with the price near its LL bottom. Consequently we expect a short term rebound to retest the 4H MA50 and then a new bearish wave towards the S1 level (TP = 1,980).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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XAUUSD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) stopped its 10 day pullback yesterday on the 1D MA50, which is the level where the short term Channel Up priced the previous HL on December 13th. The 1D timeframe is technically neutral (RSI = 47.836, MACD = 6.750, ADX = 32.595). If the 1D MA50 is crossed though, the trend will turn bearish in a way comparable to the May 17th 2023 bearish crossing. This was the bearish extension after the one year Channel Up peaked on a HH and declined all the way to the 1D MA200 and under.
We expect a similar course to be followed, so if the price crosses under the 1D MA50, we will go short on the long term with one target on the 1D MA200 and the S2 level (TP1 = 1,972.50) and a second on the S3 level (TP2 = 1,928.10).
Notice that a 1D RSI Bearish Divergence has preceeded the May 4th peak. We can see a similar pattern since October 27th.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Detailed Structure Analysis 🥇
Here is my latest structure analysis and key levels for Gold.
Horizontal Key Levels
Support 1: 2015 - 2019 area
Support 2: 1973 - 1979 area
Support 3: 1931 - 1938 area
Resistance 1: 2077 - 2088 area
Resistance 2: 2143 - 2148 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line
The market is currently approaching a Support 1.
2 trend lines compose a bullish flag formation.
We stick to the plan that I shared earlier on Sunday.
We are looking for a bullish breakout of the Vertical Resistance 1 to buy.
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of Support 1 will be give as a strong bearish signal.
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XAUUSD: Sell reversal inside the Channel Up.Gold has technically turned neutral on the 4H time-frame (RSI = 47.613, MACD = 2.720, ADX = 30.603) but remains bullish on 1D as it has started the bearish leg of the two month Channel Up. The 4H MA50 broke today for the first time since December 13th and that basically validates this short-term correction. Our target is the S1 level (TP = 2,016) which will make an ideal test of the 1D MA50.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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Sell XAUUSD (M15)OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD (M15) appears to have a pattern of narrowing the fluctuation range.
In this case, we can wait to buy when the price breaks out of the pattern and moves into a trending state.
Specifically in this case:
Buy Stop at 2065.2
Stop loss at 2063
Take profit at 2069
Sell Stop at 2063
Stop loss at 2065.2
Take profit at 2069
Remember to manage 2% capital and close the remaining pending orders when an order is matched.
XAUUSD: Bullish Cross on 4H inside the Channel Up.Gold has formed a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross, extending the rise of the bullish wave inside the Channel Up pattern. Naturally, the 1D technical outlook has turned bullish (RSI = 61.138, MACD = 13.480, ADX = 42.704) and the price can test the dashed HH trendline on a +6.45% rise like the November 28th High, which was the top before the highly distorted ATH of December 3rd. Our target is a bit lower on the R2 level (TP = 2,090).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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XAUUSD: Hit the top of the Channel Down.Gold reached the top of the ATH Channel Down and so far is being rejected. Turning bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.506, MACD = 11.660, ADX = 41.229) means that it is not unlikely for the top to break but we will engage (buy) only if the R1 level (2,048) breaks and target the R2 level (TP = 2,090). Until this happens, we will use the rejection to short and target the S1 level (TP = 1,972.50).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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