GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Bearish Setup 🥇
We got 2 peculiar breakouts on Gold.
As you know, the market was consolidating for roughly 1 week.
Consolidating, the price formed a triangle and a horizontal range.
We see a breakout of both the support of a triangle and the range.
It confirms the local strength of the sellers.
The price may drop to 2006 support.
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XAUUSD: First time under the 1D MA50 Gold broke under the 1D MA50 for the first time since October 13th and turned bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.420, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 35.745). The pattern that has emerged is a Channel Down with the price near its LL bottom. Consequently we expect a short term rebound to retest the 4H MA50 and then a new bearish wave towards the S1 level (TP = 1,980).
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XAUUSD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) stopped its 10 day pullback yesterday on the 1D MA50, which is the level where the short term Channel Up priced the previous HL on December 13th. The 1D timeframe is technically neutral (RSI = 47.836, MACD = 6.750, ADX = 32.595). If the 1D MA50 is crossed though, the trend will turn bearish in a way comparable to the May 17th 2023 bearish crossing. This was the bearish extension after the one year Channel Up peaked on a HH and declined all the way to the 1D MA200 and under.
We expect a similar course to be followed, so if the price crosses under the 1D MA50, we will go short on the long term with one target on the 1D MA200 and the S2 level (TP1 = 1,972.50) and a second on the S3 level (TP2 = 1,928.10).
Notice that a 1D RSI Bearish Divergence has preceeded the May 4th peak. We can see a similar pattern since October 27th.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Detailed Structure Analysis 🥇
Here is my latest structure analysis and key levels for Gold.
Horizontal Key Levels
Support 1: 2015 - 2019 area
Support 2: 1973 - 1979 area
Support 3: 1931 - 1938 area
Resistance 1: 2077 - 2088 area
Resistance 2: 2143 - 2148 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line
The market is currently approaching a Support 1.
2 trend lines compose a bullish flag formation.
We stick to the plan that I shared earlier on Sunday.
We are looking for a bullish breakout of the Vertical Resistance 1 to buy.
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of Support 1 will be give as a strong bearish signal.
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XAUUSD: Sell reversal inside the Channel Up.Gold has technically turned neutral on the 4H time-frame (RSI = 47.613, MACD = 2.720, ADX = 30.603) but remains bullish on 1D as it has started the bearish leg of the two month Channel Up. The 4H MA50 broke today for the first time since December 13th and that basically validates this short-term correction. Our target is the S1 level (TP = 2,016) which will make an ideal test of the 1D MA50.
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Sell XAUUSD (M15)OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD (M15) appears to have a pattern of narrowing the fluctuation range.
In this case, we can wait to buy when the price breaks out of the pattern and moves into a trending state.
Specifically in this case:
Buy Stop at 2065.2
Stop loss at 2063
Take profit at 2069
Sell Stop at 2063
Stop loss at 2065.2
Take profit at 2069
Remember to manage 2% capital and close the remaining pending orders when an order is matched.
XAUUSD: Bullish Cross on 4H inside the Channel Up.Gold has formed a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross, extending the rise of the bullish wave inside the Channel Up pattern. Naturally, the 1D technical outlook has turned bullish (RSI = 61.138, MACD = 13.480, ADX = 42.704) and the price can test the dashed HH trendline on a +6.45% rise like the November 28th High, which was the top before the highly distorted ATH of December 3rd. Our target is a bit lower on the R2 level (TP = 2,090).
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XAUUSD: Hit the top of the Channel Down.Gold reached the top of the ATH Channel Down and so far is being rejected. Turning bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.506, MACD = 11.660, ADX = 41.229) means that it is not unlikely for the top to break but we will engage (buy) only if the R1 level (2,048) breaks and target the R2 level (TP = 2,090). Until this happens, we will use the rejection to short and target the S1 level (TP = 1,972.50).
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XAUUSD: Deceiptful 1D Golden Cross on All Time High territory?Gold entered the All Time High territory on heated overbought technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 73.661, MACD = 29.580, ADX = 38.098) so far coming only a fraction away from hitting the May 4th 2023 ATH. Practically this is a Resistance line that formed long term tops and rejected the price another two times, on March 8th 2022 and August 7th 2020. The least immediate decline has been -6.15% (May 4th 2023) then -8.62% (March 8th 2022) and the maximum of -10.35% (August 7th 2020). Keep in mind that all three selloffs hit (or nearly hit) the 1D MA50.
This time however, the market faces a significantly altered dynamic as along with the ATH test today, it formed a 1D Golden Cross. Every time since The August 7th 2020 High, Gold formed a 1D Golden Cross, a rally always followed. So far we've had four such formations into rallies.
If the highest ever Golden Cross can be enough to invalidate the ATH and close a week over it, then we can expect the psychological level of 2,100 to be tested immediatelly. If not, then a minimum of -6.15% decline will send Gold to 1,955 and most likely by that time under the 1D MA50.
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XAUUSD: Channel Up offering trading opportunities.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up on the 4H timeframe since the Nov 12th low. Stable bullish technical outlook on 4H (RSI = 66.543, MACD = 8.550, ADX = 30.155), which calls for an extension of the current price action which is at the bottom of the Channel Up currently, to a new HH. We aim at a +1.96% rise (symmetrical with previous bullish legs), TP = 2,030.
Sell if the 4H MA50 breaks (current Support) and target the 4H MA200, our current projected TP = 1,975 but will change depending on when the breakout happens.
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XAUUSD: Bullish Divergence on 4H.Gold turned bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 43.890, MACD = -0.091, ADX = 34.371) after the November Channel Down almost hit the 4H MA200. It hit our 1,935.50 TP nonetheless (see previous signal at the bottom), and now the short term is giving us a buy signal in the event of a break over the Channel Down.
The 4H RSI holds a HL trendline which is a Bullish Divergence against the LL of the Channel Down. Consequently we will open a long if the price crosses over the top of the Channel Down, which is highly likely ahead of the U.S. CPI report tomorrow, and target a Triple Resistance level, the 4H MA50, the R1 and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 1,965).
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XAUUSD: Bullish inside Channel Up. Bearish under it.Gold turned again marginally overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.196, MACD = 25.640, ADX = 45.356) as it managed to stay supported inside the Channel Up pattern of October, over the 4H MA50 as well. Even though Gold's price action this past month took many traders by surprise, its price action is really that simple, a technical Channel Up, which keeps the trend bullish inside it (TP = 2,055) targeting the 3.5 Fibonacci extension (like the October 13th HH) or if it crosses under the 4H MA50, bearish targeting the 4h MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci global retracement level (TP = 1,922.50).
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XAUUSD: Excellent opportunity to buy the dip this week.Gold is on a fierce rally since the October 6th bottom that has turned the 1D technical outlook overbought (RSI = 71.518, MACD = 17.530, ADX = 38.679). The price crossed over the Fibonacci 0.618 level but Friday's 1D candle closed downwards leaving a big wick above (but still closed green). We may see a Triangle consolidation much like March 20th-April 3rd before a higher price, allowing the 1D RSI to drop under 60.000 again the the 1D MA50 to approach within supporting distance.
Technically, the whole pattern since September 20th-now, is indentical with February 2nd-March 20th, as their highs and lows are on symmetric levels. Consequently, this week's pullback can be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip and target the candle body high of May 4th, the All Time High (TP = 2,050).
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XAUUSD: Shortterm rally but consider last week's 1W MA50 reboundGold opened much higher today in the aftermath of the Israel geopolitics, with a move that has technically corrected the previously oversold 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.184, MACD = -22.590, ADX = 40.526). Regardless of the fundamentals related to the conflict, the 1D MACD is reversing towards a Bullish Cross from deeply oversold territory and a rally to the 1D MA50 seems a quite probable outcome based on the August and July runs.
The target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 1,880) which was reached (even surpassed) on both those bullish legs. In addition, last week's candle closing was over the 1W MA200, after hitting it for the first time in 11 months. This can be a hint towards a potential long term bullish reversal, but what we can do now with such geopolitics involved is take it day by day.
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XAUUSD: Channel to 1,953.Gold is holding well inside the last week's Channel Up and on the 1H timeframe it reached the overbought zone (RSI = 74.328, MACD = 2.620, ADX = 35.131). Even though we are bullish long term, this overbought state might cause a minor pull back or consolidation as on September 15th. The RSI has in fact reached the 77.600 R1, which was the High of that date. This doesn't alter our R1 target (TP = 1,953).
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XAUUSD: Buy signal if the price breaks over this Resistance.Gold turned bullish again on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 63.771, MACD = -1.560, ADX = 40.595) after crossing today over the two week Channel Down and naturally the 4H MA50 and MA200 periods. Following the 4H MACD Bullish Cross, this rally can extend to at least R2 and that's our bullish target (TP = 1,953). The entry signal will be closing over R1.
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XAUUSD: Huge Inverse Head and Shoulders calling for rebound.Gold crossed and will most likely close the day under the 1D MA50 turning the 1D timeframe marginally bearish (RSI = 44.910, MACD = 1.190, ADX = 25.617). The strongest Support level is the 1D MA200, which right now is trading exactly on S1 (1,893). We have however a bullish pattern close to completion as the price may be forming the RS of a huge Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This technical pattern is associated with long term bottoms and bullish trend reversals.
The price is now on the 0.236 Fibonacci level from the market high. The longer it stays there, the more likely it is to hold it as the neckline's Support and complete the Inverse Head and Shoulders. A 1D candle close over R1 (1,987.50) will target the 0.786 Fibonacci and that is our long position's target (TP = 2,040).
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XAUUSD: New buy sequence started. Still early to enter.XAUUSD has closed the last three 4H candles over the 4H MA50, turning the 4H timeframe bullish (RSI = 58.063, MACD = 1.870, ADX = 29.244). After the yesterday's Low at the bottom of the 4H Channel Up pattern, this is technically the new bullish sequence that aims at pricing the next HH at its top. The 4H RSI rebounded at the same level as on the July 06 Low.
If the new HH leg is similar, then it should make a +4.33% rise, which conveniently falls just under the 0.786 Fibonacci level from the All Time High. We are buying this technical signal, targeting the Channel's top (TP = 2,035).
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XAUUSD: Strong rally started on the 1D MA50.XAUUSD on the 1W timeframe shows a bullish technical action still at its start (RSI = 59.100, MACD = 26.140, ADX = 22.906) supported by the fact that this week Gold is rising after holding the 1D MA50, which was the Resistance for the last 2 months.
This rise is an extension of the HL rebound at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up and has already reached our first TP which was the 1,985.50 R1. A candle close over it (which will also be over the 0.5 Fibonacci level), targets the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP1 = 2,041) and eventually a crossing over R2 targets R3 (TP2 = 2,082).
An key observation is that the 1W RSI is trading inside a Rectangle at the same time as the price's Channel Up. Top can be used to take profit and sell.
A secondary observation is that the 1W MACD is on course to form the first Bullish Cross since November 2022. If it does it will be a huge long term buy signal.
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XAUUSD The first Golden Cross (4h) since March can deliver 2005.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up that got it off the prior downtrend as it crossed above the MA50 (1d).
The price hit the top of the Channel Up, so a pullback is expected, same as July 3rd and July 10th.
Perhaps the most important development today is the first Golden Cross (4h) since March 15th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy near 1,966.
Targets:
1. 2005 (top of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is perhaps more illustrative of the expected minor pullback as it appears to have completed a leg similar to those that peaked on July 7th and June 30th. Also there is a Rising Support to consider for the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD: Hit the 1D MA50 after nearly 2 months.Gold crossed over the 1D MA50 today for the first time in almost 2 months (since May 17th). As the 1D timeframe turned bullish again (RSI = 58.454, MACD = -7.380, ADX = 44.489) this is the first major bullish signal of a projected new long term rally.
However we will wait until the first 1D candle close over the 1D MA50 and make a confirmed buy entry. Our first target is the R2 (TP1 = 1,985.50) just under the 0.5 Fibonacci level and second the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP2 = 2,041.00) just under the R3.
It has to be mentioned that the price also crossed above the 1D MA100 today.
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