Gold fluctuates. Beware of highs.On Monday, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply, reaching an intraday high of 97.65 as Trump announced that he would impose new tariffs on a series of countries including Japan and South Korea on August 1.
Spot gold fell first and then rose. It once fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, but then rebounded strongly in a V-shaped manner by nearly $40. As of now, it has stabilized above 3,330.
From the current daily line:
3,320 is the absolute support position for gold at present. Although it fell below 3,320 yesterday, Monday, it then reversed and stabilized above 3,320. For now, the daily line still cannot close below 3,320. If it closes below 3,320, the decline may open further. On the contrary, the current upper suppression position of gold is around 3,350. That is to say, it is basically maintained at 3,320-50 for rectification.
If the daily line stabilizes at 3350 again, the bulls may rise again.
From the 4-hour chart, gold currently shows signs of a head and shoulders bottom. If the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 3340 again, the suppression level of 3350 may be directly broken. Next, it may directly touch the high level of 3380-90. Therefore, in terms of operation, I suggest that you can maintain long positions at 3320-30.
The first target is 3340-50. As long as the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 3340, you can continue to look at 3380-90.
Xauusdtrend
Gold is going down without any signs. Will it continue?Yesterday's seemingly strong rise in gold's safe-haven market may make people mistakenly think that gold is going to rise sharply, but the recent safe-haven market has poor sustainability and poor upward momentum, and cannot maintain the continuation of the upward trend.
Looking at gold in 1 hour, after the price surged, it continued to fall under pressure at 3345. 3345 is also the recent key position for long and short positions. The 1-hour moving average of gold is still in a short position and continues to diverge downward. The short-term short momentum of gold still exists. I think the price will still fall after the rebound. Gold started to fall directly at 3330, and 3330 formed a strong resistance for gold in the short term. The downward low point did not continue after touching 3288. The current price rebounded and fluctuated around 3295. So we can sell high and buy low around 3385-3325.
Gold is expected to regain bullish momentum and continue to 3360Yesterday, gold rebounded from 3296 and was able to reach around 3345. Although the process was rather painful, we have to admit that gold bulls still have the energy to wrestle with bears, and the gold market is not one-sidedly dominated by bears. As gold gradually tested and confirmed the effectiveness of support during the retracement process and then rebounded effectively, the short-term structure of gold gradually changed and began to favor bulls.
After gold hit bottom and rebounded yesterday, we can clearly see from the short-term structure that gold has successfully constructed a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3295-3244-3296 in the short term, thus playing an absolute supporting role in the structure; and in the process of repeated testing of gold, there are signs of constructing a head and shoulders bottom structure in the three areas of 3310-3296-3325 locally again. Under the effect of the structural support resonance of the head and shoulders bottom, gold may not go below 3320 again, and may even regain the bullish trend and continue to the 3345-3355 area.
So I think there is a lot of profit potential in going long on gold. We can go long on gold with the 3330-3320 area as support and look towards the target area: 3340-3350-3360
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Break & Grab: Enter above 3450.00 (Pullback Zone)
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Sneak Attack 1: Sell below 3300.00
Sneak Attack 2: Sell below 3260.00 (Support Wall Cracked!)
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Gold rebounded from the bottom. Is the decline over?Gold prices faced selling pressure in today's Asian market. The price fell from 3343 to around 3320 in the early Asian session. The European price continued to fall, reaching a low of around 3296, and then rebounded upward. The current price is fluctuating around 3320.
Most investors will focus on the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be released on Wednesday to get guidance on the trend.
From the hourly chart, the upper pressure position is constantly being corrected. The current average pressure value is around 3330-3335. At the same time, this position is also the watershed between long and short positions in the previous dense area. The price may rebound to this position again. The lower support level is in the range of 3300-3290.
Quaid believes that the current market is still showing a downward trend, and the price may fall back below 3300 again.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3330, stop loss 3340, profit range 3310-3300, sustainable ownership after breakthrough.
Continue to short gold, bears will exert force againAffected by the NFP market, gold fell precipitously, almost giving back 50% of the gains in the previous wave, and the short-selling performance was particularly strong; technically, gold successfully built a double-top structural resistance in the 3365-3363 area in the short term, which played a technical suppression role in the short term. As gold fell, the current short-term resistance moved down to the 3340-3350 area;
On the other hand, although gold began to rebound after falling to around 3312, it clearly showed the characteristics of weak rebound, and it did not even stand above 3340 once, and the long forces were insufficient; and technically, a single lower shadow line was not enough to support the continued rebound of gold, so gold still had the need to retrace the support below from a technical perspective; and once gold fell again, it was very likely to test the 3305-3295 area again.
So I think we can take advantage of the rebound of gold to short gold again. We can still short gold with the 3340-3350 area as resistance and look at the target area: 3315-3305-3295.
The bears will take the 3290-3280 area stronglyGold started to fall from 3342 during the day and fell below 3300 at one point. Gold is in an obvious short position, and during the London market, gold continued its downward momentum without any decent rebound. Gold is in an extremely weak state. In the absence of a rebound in the London market, I think New York is very likely to continue to fall.
According to the current structure, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which greatly limits the rebound space of gold and suppresses the rebound limit within 3335. As the center of gravity of gold moves down, the resistance in the short term moves down to the 3315-3325 area. After breaking through 3330, the downward space has been opened up to a certain extent. So don’t be fooled by the false bullish candle that appear near 3330. Gold will inevitably continue to fall to the 3290-3280 area.
The 3290-3280 area is bound to be won, so shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading. You can consider shorting gold with the 3315-3325-3335 area as resistance, and look to the target area: 3295-3285-3275.
The bill was introduced; the price did not rise but fell.Due to the implementation of the US bill, most traders in the market are bullish on gold and believe that gold will soar on Monday. As a result, it jumped up and fell sharply this morning. This is the uncertainty of the market. Although the short position given near 3340 last Friday was late, it fell to the low point of 3306 at the opening of the Asian market today.
In addition, the key to this sharp drop is the high point before the rebound, that is, the starting point or the position of the top and bottom conversion. Once it is broken, you have to change your mindset. The volatile market is like this, just get used to it. The turmoil caused by Trump's bill will not appear for a while. It takes a process and cannot be unilaterally considered as bullish or bearish.
In the early Asian market, the price fell all the way from 3342 US dollars to 3306. How to judge the end of the decline? It is to stare at the high point of the rebound before the last decline of 3320 US dollars. The loss of 3300 US dollars in the early trading indicates that the gap-up opening is a lure for more.
Today, I think that 3325 above 3320 can be used as the dividing point between long and short positions. You can short with a light position near 3315, and pay attention to the 3295-3290 line below. After the upward breakthrough is confirmed, consider adjusting the position and making other arrangements. For the time being, we will look at the weak adjustment during the day.
Buy Gold! The short-term bottom may have appeared!Gold continued to retreat yesterday and hit a recent low, reaching around 3287. Then gold gradually rebounded to above 3300. Relatively speaking, the rebound momentum was weak. It is expected that the long and short sides will fight fiercely around 3300. However, from the recent characteristics of gold operation, it can be seen that although the short position of gold is strong, it is difficult to continue in the short term, and I think the short-term decline of gold is basically in place, so at this stage, in terms of short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly;
As gold did not continue to fall after reaching around 3287, on the contrary, it gradually rebounded to above 3300, which may strengthen the market's consensus on the short-term bottom, thereby attracting the favor of off-site funds; from the current gold structure, if gold can maintain above 3300-3295, it may be combined with the 3287 low to build a "W" double bottom structure, which is conducive to supporting the rebound of gold.
However, as gold fell below 3300 again, the bearish trend is relatively strong, so we need to moderately lower our expectations for a gold rebound. In the short term, gold is under pressure in the 3315-3325 area, so we can temporarily look to this area for the rebound target. Therefore, in short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly, and you can first consider going long on gold in the 3300-3295 area, TP: 3310-3320-3330.
Gold fluctuates downward. Do not short blindly.Today, gold is in a consolidation downward trend, with the lowest point reaching around 3296; it has rebounded slightly to around 3310. From the overall market, gold is indeed in a short trend. However, do not continue to short, which is very dangerous.
Because from the hourly chart, although the low point of gold is constantly refreshing, the key hourly chart support range position has not yet broken.
So, here I may think that gold may still be tempting to short in the short term. There is still a possibility of a pullback here on the hourly chart. From the current point of view, there is still a probability of a pullback to 3320-30 before the range is broken. In terms of the next operation, I suggest that you can pay attention to 3320-30.
However, if it really pulls up again, as long as it does not stand above 3330 again. Then, we can short here at 3320-30. On the contrary, if the rebound directly breaks above 3340, then be careful. The rebound may turn into a trend reversal, and it is very likely to replicate the rhythm at the beginning of last week.
Big changes begin. Dominant trend?Event summary:
The United States passed the Big and Beautiful Act; how to get this part of the tax after the massive tax cut? Then it can only be obtained through other means, and the tariff war initiated by Trump is one of them. At the same time, the bill will increase the federal debt by trillions of dollars, further widening the gap between the rich and the poor.
Immediately after the bill was signed and took effect, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party". He wrote: We live in a one-party state, not a democratic country. Today, the American Party is established to return your freedom to you. At the same time, Musk posted on July 6, when and where should we hold the first congress of the "American Party"? This will be very interesting.
This event is likely to support the trend change of gold bulls in the short term.
Market analysis:
From the daily chart, after bottoming out and rebounding this week, the weekly line closed higher, and there is still upward momentum next week; short-term focus on the pressure of the 3345-3365 range, which is likely to become a key area for long and short competition. Before breaking upward, focus on the high and fall. Pay attention to the support rebound of 3320-3325 area below. Once the upper pressure range is broken, the bullish space will expand, and it is not ruled out that it will hit above 3400 and then go down.
In terms of operation, the price falls back and buy on dips in the 3315-20 area, and pay attention to the profit range of 3345-3365 on the upside.
Gold continues to fluctuate. The direction is uncertain.Gold prices did not have a large continuation breakthrough on Friday due to the impact of the US Independence Day holiday; although the non-agricultural data on Thursday fell rapidly under the unfavorable conditions and formed a bottoming-out situation, the short-term bulls and bears were once again in a deadlock. After a small sideways movement on Friday morning, it rose again. Although it did not break through the upper pressure line of 3345, it still closed in the form of a positive line, which also gave the bulls hope to dominate next week.
At present, the upper key pressure is still maintained at the 3345 line, which is also the first point for the bulls to break through. Once the upper breakthrough is successful, the next target will be maintained at around 3365-3380. The support below is maintained at around 3325. If this position is broken down on Monday, the support of 3325 will not be maintained, and the bears will continue to open the downward channel.
But overall, the market direction is still unclear, and we can conduct trial transactions. Go long when the price falls back to 3325 on Monday in the Asian market, the profit range is 3340-3350, and the stop loss is 3315. If the European market continues to strengthen, you can still go long. If the European market continues to strengthen, we can still continue to go long. Otherwise, we still need to adjust our thinking in a timely manner.
Indicates the target for potential bearish liquidity grab.BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity):
Marked near $3,360 at the top (gray zone).
Represents an area where buy stops may be resting above recent highs.
SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity):
Marked around $3,260 at the bottom (red zone).
Indicates the target for potential bearish liquidity grab.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
Highlighted in yellow near $3,270–$3,280.
Unfilled imbalance that may attract price.
ChoCH (Change of Character):
Two ChoCH labels are marked:
One minor bullish ChoCH around the $3,328 area indicating a short-term shift in structure.
One bearish ChoCH below $3,310, suggesting a possible return to bearish bias if broken.
Blue Supply Zone:
An area of previous supply or resistance where price may reverse.
📉
Projected Price Path:
Initial move up into the blue supply zone, possibly to induce buyers or sweep short-term highs.
Followed by a strong bearish rejection, breaking below the lower ChoCH level (~$3,310).
A drop is anticipated all the way to the SSL zone (~$3,260), possibly filling the FVG on the way.
🧠 Summary:
This chart implies a smart money bearish setup:
Short-term liquidity sweep to the upside.
Break of structure (ChoCH) to confirm reversal.
Bearish continuation targeting:
Fair Value Gap (FVG) → ~$3,270s
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) → ~$3,260
Non-farm data exceeded expectations. Will prices fall temporarilInformation summary:
Affected by the US Independence Day, the June non-farm data was released in advance. This non-farm data surprised the market, far below expectations and previous values, with a significant increase in employment exceeding expectations and previous values, and a sharp drop in unemployment to 4.1%.
The market bet that the July rate cut plan would be directly scrapped. After the employment data was released, the gold price quickly plummeted to $3,312, but the sharp drop in the market had poor continuity and ultimately did not form a unilateral decline.
Market analysis:
Due to the US Independence Day holiday, the US market was closed. In fact, the only thing left for us is the Asian and European markets. And today is the last trading day of this week, and the market is likely to maintain a state of consolidation.
From the 1-hour chart, the price fell after testing the 3,360 high twice. The negative impact of the non-farm data accelerated the decline, and the decline did not continue, and a new support level was formed near 3,323 after the decline. At present, the price is impacting around 3,345, and the bulls are expected to rebound upward and return to the upward trend.
I think the current market continues to rebound, with the lower low of 3323 as the dividing point, and high sell and low buy operations in the consolidation area of 3320-3350.
This is the last trading day of this week. I wish all traders a perfect ending and a perfect weekend.
Gold/USD Bullish Breakout Toward Target Zone Gold/USD Bullish Breakout Analysis 🚀🟢
The chart illustrates a strong bullish breakout from a consolidation zone, signaling upward momentum:
🔍 Key Technical Observations:
Support Zone: The price respected the support area around 3,325 – 3,330 USD, forming a solid base for reversal.
Bullish Structure: Series of higher lows and higher highs indicate a bullish trend formation.
Breakout Confirmation: Price broke above short-term resistance with a strong bullish candle, indicating buying pressure.
Trendline Support: The ascending trendline has held well, confirming trend continuation.
Target Point 🎯: Projected target is near 3,365 USD, which aligns with a previous resistance and Fibonacci confluence zone.
✅ Conclusion:
The breakout above resistance, supported by a bullish structure and momentum, suggests further upside potential toward the 3,365 USD target zone. As long as price holds above the breakout level, bullish bias remains valid.
🛑 Watch for invalidation if price falls back
Data is about to be released. Trend change?Affected by the ADP employment data, gold prices broke through 3345 and continued to fluctuate upward to 3365 US dollars. This trend fully shows that the position of 3345 US dollars is the watershed between long and short.
From the 1-hour chart, the overall market is still fluctuating upward. Although it has fallen slightly, I think it is accumulating momentum for a second rise. ADP employment data is negative for the first time. Non-agricultural employment data will be released in 3 hours. The market expects 110,000 jobs. I think the data that may be released will be worse. The number of jobs will decrease and the unemployment rate will also increase, which will drive gold prices to continue to rise.
From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator is currently hovering around 58.7, showing strong upward momentum. MA5-day and 10-day moving averages form a golden cross and continue to rise. The current upward high has not appeared. The gold price may refresh the intraday high of 3365 again.
At present, the upward pressure focuses on 3365-3375 US dollars. The support level is around 3345, which is also the turning point for the upward movement of the MA5 daily moving average.
Operation strategy:
Buy near 3350, stop loss at 3340, and profit range 3370-3375.
Non-farm data is coming. Upward breakthrough?Information summary:
ADP data supports the rise of gold. Secondly, the weaker-than-expected non-farm data has triggered people's hope that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier. The gold price hit the 3360 mark, then fell back slightly, and is currently fluctuating around 3350.
This Friday is the Independence Day holiday in the United States. The non-farm data will be released on Thursday. Today, we will focus on this data, which will trigger a new trend.
Market analysis:
From the 4-hour chart, gold is currently in a suppressed state. However, it is not ruled out that it will be supported at the bottom as before, and then break through the upper suppression position again with the help of non-farm data.
Therefore, the most critical position today is not above, but near the support of 3325 below. On Wednesday, the support near 3325 was tested many times but did not break down. If the price remains above this position today, the probability of an upward breakthrough is very high.
Based on the current market conditions and the data to be released soon, Quaid recommends that everyone wait and see for a while and wait for the new trend to come. Of course, according to the current forecast data, this will support the rise of gold. A radical approach can also try a long strategy around 3345.
Gold falls back, is a bottom structure emerging?In terms of one-hour structure, this round of phased adjustment started from 3450 has not ended yet, but it will soon, especially the rapid rebound after the bottom of 3260 on Monday. This rebound has strong momentum. After bottoming out and rebounding, it is currently fluctuating around 3340, with a large overall span. This also shows that after the price has risen, the amplitude of the correction has increased, which means that the upward space is limited. This adjustment is likely to be over soon, but there is no definite bottom structure yet, so we need to wait for some time.
Before going out of the definite bottom structure, based on the principle of following the trend, you can try to short with a light position. At present, in terms of the one-hour pattern, the key point is here at 3355, and it is currently falling back from this position to 3340. If it falls back to the 3320 area today and stabilizes above it, you can operate a long strategy. On the whole, Quaid suggests that the short-term operation strategy for gold today should be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds.
Operation strategy:
Short at 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3330-3325.
Long at 3320, stop loss at 3310, profit range 3340-3345.
Gold surged and then fell. Has it reached its peak?Information summary:
Today, the United States and Japan negotiated on tariffs. Trump said that the US-Japan deal was unfair and might send a letter to Japan; the US-Japan trade negotiations seemed to be at a standstill. Trump also threatened that he would not extend the expiring tariff period and would send letters to most countries and regions in the next few days.
Secondly, the United States accused the EU of unfair digital legislation and asked the EU to relax its supervision of US technology giants. In addition, Trump accused "Mr. Too Late" Powell and the entire committee on social media that they should be ashamed of not cutting interest rates.
Affected by the above news, gold's risk aversion sentiment heated up and prices started to rise for the second time.
Market analysis:
From the 4-hour chart, the market is currently in a slow upward trend in a downward channel, and the price is also repeatedly testing the upward pressure position of 3355. MA5-day and 10-day moving averages turned upward and crossed with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages. At present, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient. In the short term, we should focus on the suppression position of 3355. If we fail to break through this position for a long time, the trend will most likely turn into a downward trend. If no black swan event occurs, today's price will most likely fluctuate around the 3320-3350 range. If there is no black swan event, the price today will most likely fluctuate around the range of 3320-3350.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3355, stop loss 3365, profit range 3340-3330.
Long near 3315 when the price falls back, stop loss 3305, profit range 3340-3345.
Gold encounters resistance at 3310-3320 and is about to fallAt present, gold has reached the 3300-3320 area as expected. As I mentioned in my previous article, we can consider shorting gold in batches in the 3300-3320 area;
Although gold once rebounded and stood above 3300, we can clearly see that when facing the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320, the bullish energy of gold has converged and began to show signs of stagflation, so the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320 is still valid.
Before gold breaks through 3310-3320, gold bears still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3310-3320 in the short term, don't be afraid of gold rebounds. Rebounds are opportunities to short gold. So I still tend to short gold at present, and have opened short gold positions according to the trading plan, hoping that gold can retreat to the target area: 3285-3275-3265. Do you think gold will fall as expected?
Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
Gold fluctuates upward. Is the decline over?On Monday, gold opened at around 3282, and then fell back quickly to around 3247 under pressure; the downward low was blocked, and then rebounded strongly to around 3297; the market currently maintains a small upward trend.
At present, we need to focus on the resistance range of the upward trend.
From the 4-hour chart, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, followed by the suppression range of 3310-3315. The main direction of short-term operations maintains the rebound short-selling strategy. The support below is around 3255; the overall short-term operation relies on 3260-3300 to maintain the main tone of high-altitude participation unchanged.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3305, stop loss 3320, profit range 3270-3260.
A new week has just begun. I wish you all gain something from the market fluctuations.
Gold is trading sideways. Has it reached a high point?On the first trading day of this week, after hitting 3247 in the early Asian session, it quickly rebounded to around 3295, and then fell back slightly. It is currently maintained at around 3285.
From the hourly chart, the Fibonacci 0.618 position of this trend from 3247 to 3297 is at 3278. The price has always been above 3278, but it has only fallen below this position in a very short time. If the retracement does not break through the 0.618 position, there is a high probability that there will be a high point in the subsequent trend.
Next, we should focus on the area around 3280. If the price always closes above 3280, then today's high point of 3297 will most likely be refreshed. If the upward trend is opened again, it is very likely to touch around 3310. 3310 is also the current 0.618 position. And it is also the top position of this hourly chart range.
Therefore, we should be cautious when shorting gold above 3280, as there is a high probability that it will reach above 3300.
Aggressive trading can rely on entering the market and going long near 3280, and the profit range is between 3300-3310.
For short strategy trading, Quaid recommends that it is safer to short when the price rebounds near 3310.