XAU/USD 20 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Intraday expectation to remain the same as analysis dated 18 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning.
Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 19 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 16 August 2024, whereby internal structure was bearish. We needed to be mindful that H4 internal structure was bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS and iBOS.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price to react at discount of 50% EQ, or M15 demand level to target weak internal high. Price may seek liquidity at M15 supply level to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Alternative scenario: Price to target weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
Xauusdupdate
XAU/USD 19 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 18 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning.
Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 16 August 2024, whereby internal structure was bearish. We needed to be mindful that H4 internal structure was bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS and iBOS.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price to react at discount of 50% EQ, or M15 demand level to target weak internal high. Price may seek liquidity at M15 supply level to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Alternative scenario: Price to target weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 15 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per previous intraday expectation, price was approaching internal high, however, due to US CPI data, and traders trimming rate-cut bets due to US CPI data, price had a bearish reaction, nonetheless, bullish structure remains intact.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Yesterday's intraday expectation was not met due to US CPI data release and traders trimming rate-cut bets which saw XAU print bearish price action.
Price has printed bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback initiation.
Price has also reacted at 50% EQ of the internal structure.
Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal low, however, we need to be mindful H4 TF remains bullish.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 14 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as yesterdays analysis dated 11 August 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
As previously mentioned, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. This is what price printed according to my analysis.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at an H4 demand level, therefore, price to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following bullish iBOS, price printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback initiation.
Internal structure is substantial, therefore, I have zoomed out in order to obtain a better view of structure.
Price has reacted at an M15 supply level, however, the move did not sustain sufficient bearish momentum and it seems weak internal high is being targeted.
Intraday expectation: Whilst I have mentioned that price may target weak internal high, price may well print a secondary reaction to the M15 supply level in order to gain more liquidity to complete bearish pullback phase.
M15 Chart:
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XAU/USD 13 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as yesterdays analysis dated 11 August 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
As previously mentioned, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. This is what price printed according to my analysis.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at an H4 demand level, therefore, price to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per previous analysis, particularly alternative scenario, which was: We need to bear in mind that internal H4 structure is bullish with bearish pullback phase currently underway and could potentially be complete after reacting at H4 demand level.
This is exactly how price printed.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH following bullish iBOS which indicates bearish pullback initiation.
Internal structure is substantial, therefore, I have had to to zoom out so you may obtain a better view.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% EQ or M15 demand level before targeting weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
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XAU/USD 06 April 2024 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis:
Bias/Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 04 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
However, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which, much like the daily TF, could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high.
Intraday expectation: Technically, price should target weak internal high, however, price has made one failed attempt, therefore, price could continue bullish, react at H4 supply level, print bearish price action, react at H4 demand level before targeting weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Yesterday's intraday expectation was met, assisted by dovish US economic news.
Price has printed a further bearish iBOS followed by a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation.
Indication of pullback initiation started by reaction at H4 demand level.
Price is currently hovering around 50% EQ printing low volume rangebound price action.
Intraday expectation: Price to react at premium of 50% internal EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low.
Alternative scenario: Whilst intraday expectation is technically correct, we need to bear in mind that internal H4 structure is bullish with bearish pullback phase currently underway and could potentially be complete after reacting at H4 demand level.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 17 July 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a swing BOS, printing an all time high.
I have been mentioning that price could be seeking further liquidity to fuel it's bearish pullback phase and price could create a higher high to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price action to allow for a more realistic indication of pullback phase.
This again, is precisely what happened. Price has printed all time high and CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
50% EQ for swing structure is denoted in black. 50% EQ for internal structure is denoted in blue.
Intraday expectation: Allow price to continue it's bullish momentum and print bearish CHoCH to indicate pullback initiation.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has print both internal and swing BOS (Break Of Structure)
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH thereby confirming internal range and indicating bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price could potentially be targeting weak internal high.
Alternative scenario, price to react at M15 supply zone, pullback into discount of 50% or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD 01 July 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 07 June 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As previously mentioned, price reacted at 50% EQ of the internal range to target weak internal low, however, price was unable to close below internal low due to H4 demand zone.
Nonetheless, internal structure remains bearish until strong internal high is taken out.
Price is once again showing reaction to premium of 50% EQ.
Intraday expectation: Price to once again target weak internal low.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a series of bullish iBOS' with price now aligning itself with swing structure
Price previously reacted from discount zone of 50% EQ but was unable to maintain it's bullish momentum to target weak internal high.
Price continued bearish, reacted at strong internal low and M15 POI.
Price has reacted at premium of 50% EQ.
Intraday expectation: Internal structure is bullish, therefore, technically price should target weak internal high.
Alternative scenario is price to target strong internal low as we need to be mindful that H4 is in bearish pullback phase.
M15 Chart:
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XAUUSD May 31, 2024 gold price reaches correction target?Our trading plan is to wait for the price to react in the price range 2337 to 2332 to look for buy signals.
The news was announced yesterday
Preliminary GDP news is 1.3%, lower than expected 1.6%
Applications for unemployment benefits were 219k, higher than the previous period's 216k
News that pending home sales are down 7.7%
Yesterday's news indicators are showing that the US economy is facing difficulties due to the Fed's monetary policy control.
Looking back a bit, we see that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) this period has decreased compared to the previous period. Tonight, the PCI (Personal Consumption Index) will be announced. If this index cools down, US inflation should have a good signal. This will contribute to helping the FED loosen its current monetary policy.
The goal of tightening monetary policy is to ensure inflation reaches 2%, and when tightening monetary policy, raising interest rates will cause the economy to stagnate. Therefore, if US inflation has shown signs of cooling down while the economy is showing signs of stagnation, it is necessary for the Fed to consider policies to ensure a balance between economic goals and inflation goals. .
Looking at the H1 chart, we see that the first target of wave 5 was achieved, then the price rebounded.
- After the price bounces back, it is still early to say the correction has ended because the correction is confirmed to end when the price closes above 2450. But at least we will expect a price increase to the target. 2400 next week.
- Currently we have price that has completed wave 1 as shown on the chart and is completing wave 2. We have a very good buying target which is the price range from 2337 to 2332.
Our trading plan is to wait for the price to react in the price range 2337 to 2332 to look for buy signals.
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XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold prices take a nosedive as a buoyant US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report throws a shadow of uncertainty over expectations for a Fed rate cut in May. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released robust NFP data for January, revealing a surge in employment with 353K new hires, surpassing the consensus forecast of 180K and the 216K payrolls added in December. Despite market anticipation for a slight increase, the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 3.7%.
Adding to the market's jitters, Average Hourly Earnings exhibited a robust growth rate, surpassing expectations. The persistent strength in the inflation outlook has raised concerns among investors. The positive momentum in the labor market is anticipated to shift Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers towards a more conservative stance, potentially leading to the extension of higher interest rates.
In the recent monetary policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for policymakers to gain greater confidence in the sustained return of inflation to the 2% target. This, coupled with the upbeat labor market data, has created an atmosphere of uncertainty, prompting a significant impact on gold prices.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,035 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, a breach below the $2,035 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
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Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
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