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XAU/USD 08 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 06 October 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by the first bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has established the current swing range. Currently, price is trading between the swing high and internal low. Following second bearish iBOS price printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Price reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Although the weak internal low was targeted, price was unable to close below it after reacting from an H4 demand zone. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Yesterday's analysis (07 October 2024) mentioned the alternative scenario, where I noted that given the H4 timeframe appears to be in a bearish pullback phase, any bullish momentum would likely be short-lived, and price could potentially print a bearish iBOS. Price has now printed a bearish iBOS, which was expected as the H4 timeframe remains in a bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: After the iBOS, we anticipate a pullback. CHoCH positioning is marked by a blue dotted line. Price could potentially print a new low, bringing CHoCH positioning closer to the current price. This has occurred whilst I was preparing analysis. CHoCH is now closer to current price action. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD: 7/10 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyTechnical analysis of gold Daily resistance 2700, support below 2622 Four-hour resistance 2685, support below 2634-22 Gold operation suggestions: Gold fell slightly after violent fluctuations last Friday, closing at $2652.64, because the stronger-than-expected US employment report poured cold water on the Fed's expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts in November, boosting the dollar to a high of more than one and a half months, and US Treasury yields also rose sharply to a high of nearly two months, overshadowing the risk aversion concerns over the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. U.S. job growth accelerated in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further easing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at the November 6-7 policy meeting. The overall technical aspects of gold prices continued to fluctuate in a wide range of long and short positions in volatile trading. From the current short-term perspective, the upper 2675-85 area still forms a strong resistance and suppression area. At the same time, the 2634 area where it fell and stabilized last week is still effective. The lower 2622 daily level support is still bullish. In the short term, gold prices continue to maintain a wide range of long and short fluctuations before there is no news stimulus in the market. BUY:2650near SL:2647 BUY:2634near SL:2630 BUY:2622near SL:2618 SELL:2666near SL:2671 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ActuaryJ
XAU/USD 07 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 06 October 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by the first bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has established the current swing range. Currently, price is trading between the swing high and internal low. Following second bearish iBOS price printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Price reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Although the weak internal low was targeted, price was unable to close below it after reacting from an H4 demand zone. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following a bullish iBOS, price has been highly volatile but remains contained within the internal range. Price has wicked both above and below the internal range without any candle closures. Intraday Expectation: Technically, price is expected to target the weak internal high. Price has attempted to reach the weak internal high but has failed to close above. Alternative Scenario: Given that the H4 timeframe appears to be in a bearish pullback phase, any bullish momentum is likely to be short-lived. Price could potentially print a bearish iBOS. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold anchors at peak, experts neutral on gold prices this weekCome up with ideas and wave trends for today, 10/7, 2024. In my opinion, tomorrow there will be a short-term wave during the day that pushes the price up to the 2662 zone, so tomorrow you can watch for the correction wave and then watch for Buy. To watch for Buy at this wave, pay attention to the price zone of 2650 - 2647. Here, find the Buy factor, SL below the foot of the previous small wave. Because the price is within the Wyckoff boundary of the value zone, last week you can see that all your entries and trends are only within the boundary. Do not go too far to avoid the case where the entry is finished and the price goes sideways and then returns to liquidity to sweep the entry. Longer-term views from the 30-50 price range will be established when the price breaks out of the Wyckoff boundary when forming the cause and returning the result. Here, I can click and calculate the P&F of the target price to find, so avoid trading with high expectations and over-predictions. Finally, all transactions must always comply with capital management and SL. This is The most important thing that the channel always tells you is to not get too excited when you win and when SL loses, feel lucky because you lose only a part of your account, so that your mentality is comfortable and you are not afraid of losing or holding on to negative too much. --- Jesse Colombo, an independent precious metals analyst and founder of BubbleBubble Report, believes that the price of this precious metal will trade in the range of 2,650-2,700 USD/ounce and notes that investors can buy when the price drops. 16 Wall Street experts participated in the latest Kitco News Gold Survey. Of which, 7 experts (equivalent to 44%) said that gold prices will increase this week. 3 experts (19%) predicted that gold prices will decrease. The remaining 6 (37%) believe that gold will trade sideways. In addition, 104 retail investors, or 59%, of the 176 Main Street investors surveyed expect gold to continue its upward trend. Another 36, or 20.5%, said the yellow metal would trade lower, and the remaining 38, or 20.5%, were neutral on gold prices this week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheLeader_WOLF
XAU/USD getting ready for another rally?Gold appears to be generating significant liquidity, suggesting a potential setup for another rally to the upside. We’re seeing liquidity engineering, which points toward the possibility of gold making a push to retest all-time highs. I’m watching for a chance to capitalize on this move. There’s a 1-hour demand zone just below a pool of liquidity that has recently triggered a change of character (CHOCH) to the upside. I’ll be looking for price to mitigate that demand zone before taking liquidity higher. Confluences for Gold Buys: - Gold is consolidating, likely preparing for a breakout. - Trendline liquidity to the upside still needs to be taken. - The 1-hour demand zone has caused a CHOCH to the upside. - Gold remains bullish, aligning with the overall trend. - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of bearishness from its supply zone, supporting the bullish outlook for gold. Note: If price continues to drop and fails to hold at the 1-hour demand zone, I’ll anticipate it to fill the imbalance below and mitigate the 10-hour demand zone. This area is another point of interest where a potential bullish rally for gold could form.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hassan_fx
Gold Nearing Major Support at 2667 - Bullish ReversalGold is approaching a crucial support level at 2667 on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential bullish reversal. This level holds significant importance due to its confluence with technical indicators that suggest a possible upward move. Let’s break down the key elements of the current setup: 2667 is a well-established major support level where buyers have historically stepped in, making it a critical zone to watch. RSI (Relative Strength Index) has crossed above 50 multiple times, which is a strong signal of increasing bullish momentum. This suggests that, despite recent price consolidation, there is underlying strength in the market. The fact that RSI is sustaining above the midline indicates that the market sentiment is shifting towards bullishness. On the 4-hour chart, the most recent candle formed a Hammer, a classic bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the market is rejecting lower prices, with buyers defending the support level. Gold closed the weekend at 2667.80, sitting right on this major support level, further confirming the importance of this zone. All these technical indicators point towards a potential bullish setup for Gold, with the RSI's multiple crossings above 50 strengthening the case for upside movement. If the price bounces from this support, we could see a rally in the near term. However, it's essential to recognize that Gold's price action is also influenced by global events, particularly geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East. These developments could introduce volatility and sudden shifts in sentiment. Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the 2667 support level and look for further confirmations of a bullish reversal, such as continued RSI strength, bullish candlestick formations, and breaks above resistance levels. If the support holds and these signals align, Gold could be poised for a significant upward move. However, a failure to maintain this level may lead to further downside, so caution is advised. Stay updated on global events, as they can heavily impact Gold's trajectory in the days ahead.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Sudhir-Sirohi
2
The Calm Before the Storm: A Waterfall-like Decline is Coming... Today is Thursday, and with key data releases scheduled for New York trading hours and tomorrow’s much-anticipated NFP and unemployment figures, the market is far from quiet. My advice for today is to focus on selling, despite the possibility of some upward movement. However, from a daily chart perspective, the likelihood of a downturn is much stronger. The 5-day moving average (MA5) has already turned downward, and it’s just a matter of time before the bearish trend takes hold. When it does, this won’t be just a simple correction like we saw last time. I’m predicting a waterfall-like decline. Here’s my anticipated price action: a drop to around 2600, followed by a short rebound to approximately 2630, and finally, a deeper plunge to the 2570 region.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Wealth_Waves
1
XAUUSD: NFP data and trading strategies for the next two weeks Yesterday's gold movement largely aligned with expectations, with relatively limited fluctuations. However, today is unlikely to be as calm, as the market now faces two sharply contrasting scenarios: If the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data are bullish for gold, and the price remains within its current range, we could see a rebound, testing or even breaking the previous high before retreating to current levels. Alternatively, before or shortly after the data release, gold may retest the resistance near its previous high (or consolidate below the 2668 level) and then begin a significant decline, potentially forming a double-top pattern (with a break below 2620). Disregarding the data, from a technical standpoint, the daily chart (D1) shows that gold is at a critical juncture. Recent price movements have hovered near key support levels, with some indicators clearly signaling weakness. A decisive move is imminent. Scenario 1: Gold consolidates near support, gathering momentum and bolstering bullish sentiment, leading to a second upward push—similar to the rally initiated around the 2500 level. If the market demonstrates strength, prices could challenge the 2700-2710 zone, followed by a weekly close showing weakness. A significant pullback of no less than $100 could then ensue. Scenario 2: Bullish momentum fades, and the bears start to take control. A double-top formation would likely emerge, targeting the 2625-2611 support zone. If bulls fail to hold these levels, the next bearish targets would be in the 2590-2570 region. I hope this analysis provides valuable insight for your upcoming trades. Wishing you all the best of luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mia-Signal
Uncertainty in Gold: Is a New Leg of Correction on the Horizon?Yesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD exhibited significant volatility, with sharp fluctuations both upward and downward. However, by the close of the session, the price remained relatively unchanged, lacking a clear directional trend. The current price movement suggests a phase of consolidation, indicating that a more definitive direction may emerge soon. Traders are now observing key levels that could guide future moves. On the upside, the 2663-2665 zone is seen as a resistance level, which could signal a bullish breakout if breached. Conversely, the 2645-2650 range serves as a support zone, indicating a potential bearish move if the price falls below this level. From a personal perspective, I anticipate that gold might break to the downside, leading to a new corrective phase that could potentially drive the price toward the 2600 level. That said, this is merely my view, and there is always the possibility of being wrong. Therefore, my invalidation point for this bearish scenario would be a break above the established resistance zone, which would signal the need to reassess the situation. In conclusion, while the market remains in a state of indecision, these key levels provide traders with important reference points to monitor for potential breakouts or reversals in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
9
XAU/USD: Is the 2650 Break Sustainable or Driven by Emotion?Yesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) broke back above the 2650 level, a point of significant psychological and technical importance. This level is critical due to the confluence of a horizontal support line and the falling trendline of the down-channel pattern. While this upward break may seem promising, I believe it is not likely to be a sustainable move. In my view, this breakout appears to be driven more by emotional reactions rather than genuine market demand. As a result, I believe the current correction for Gold is not yet complete, and we could see another downward move in the near future. From a technical perspective, the 2650 level acts as a critical "line in the sand." Should the price drop back below this level, the first target would likely be the recent low, with the potential for an extended decline towards the next major support zone around 2590. This area marks an important technical level that could offer stronger support if the downtrend continues. At the time of writing, I am currently out of the market, and waiting for further clarification. I am particularly looking for a decisive drop back below 2650, which would reinforce my bearish outlook and provide confirmation for a potential short trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
5
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailGold trimmed its weekly gains on Friday as traders assessed recent US economic data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy. With disinflationary trends suggesting steady rate cuts, Gold continues to shine. However, expectations for a 50 basis point cut in November have eased following strong US macroeconomic data. Key reports like the decline in Initial Jobless Claims to 218K, solid Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, and stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders have sparked debate about a possible economic soft landing. In this video, I break down how these factors could shape price action in the Gold market, and explore trading strategies for both buyers and sellers. With the probability of a 50 bps rate cut now down to 50%, I have analyzed potential scenarios and how I plan to capitalize on the upcoming opportunities. Make sure to watch till the end for my technical analysis and outlook for the coming week. XAUUSD Technical Overview: This week, we're focusing on the $2,640 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights! 📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market! #GoldMarket #FedRateCuts #USData #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #GoldForecast #EconomicOutlook #TradingStrategies #InvestingInGold #MarketUpdates📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
1
XAUUSD: Will the decline continue after the conflict?Yesterday, the US dollar index rose for the second consecutive trading day, hitting a two-week high, supported by data showing the resilience of the US labor market and the dual support of safe-haven currency properties. It stands to reason that the rise of the US dollar index will suppress gold and cause it to fall. However, due to the sudden escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel, the demand for safe havens has been greatly boosted, resulting in a rare rise in gold and the US dollar together. The escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has indeed greatly affected the direction of gold, but as of now, I don’t think gold supports the momentum to continue to rise sharply. Judging from the news, the rise in gold is due to the situation in the Middle East. If the situation in the Middle East eases next, or the situation is not as tense as the first day, then gold will still fall as it rose. Unless the situation in the Middle East will intensify in the future, and it will be more violent than yesterday’s conflict From the figure, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618 from yesterday’s high of 2673 and today’s low of 2645 is 2655. As long as the rebound does not exceed 0.618, it is bound to fall to a new low. The short position I held yesterday suffered a slight loss due to the sudden outbreak of the Middle East conflict, but I added positions at 2655 and 2666 respectively, which increased the average price and is now profitable. In summary, I still have a bearish view, so I will continue to hold short positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AntonyTP