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Is the Gold Rally Over? Preparing for the Next Wave of SellingSince the beginning of the week, I've been making the case that Gold's recent move has become overextended, and that complacency in the market often precedes strong reversals. This type of overconfidence, where traders believe the uptrend will continue indefinitely, can lead to sudden and sharp corrections when sentiment shifts. Indeed, after reaching yet another all-time high at 2758, OANDA:XAUUSD began to pull back. Once it broke below the key support level of the rising channel, the downward momentum intensified, leading to an accelerated sell-off. This drop culminated in an intraday low of 2708—an impressive 500-pip decline from top to bottom. Looking ahead, in my view, this correction is not over yet. I believe we are likely to see a new wave of selling pressure in the coming sessions. The market may experience brief rebounds or retracements, but these should be seen as opportunities to position for further downside. My strategy moving forward is to sell into this rebound, with negation if we have a new ATH. Until that happens, the primary target for this move remains the 2680-2690 support zone, which could provide a more substantial floor for the price in the near term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
10
XAU/USD 28 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 27 October 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling, but not yet confirming, the start of bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation. Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis/intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 24 October 2024. Yesterday's intraday expectation was not met, as price failed to target the weak internal high and instead printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This aligns with the H4 timeframe being in a pullback phase. As previously highlighted, price remains highly volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's softer stance. Price has since printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Currently, price is trading within a well-established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is reacting around the 50% equilibrium of the internal range and may also react at nested H4 and M15 supply levels before targeting the weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
GOLD with two probabilities for 10/28/2024GOLD with a high probability to make the decision for 10/28/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Abderrahmane_24
XAU/USD 28 October - 01 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued its surge, reaching new all-time highs with no signs yet of bearish pullback phase initiation. The initial indication of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), marked by a blue dotted line. Price's ongoing ascent has now positioned CHoCH significantly closer to most recent price action. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has sustained its upward surge since printing a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), driven by softer U.S. macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Following bullish iBOS, a bearish pullback is anticipated, though there are currently no signs of it materialising. The first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential pullback would be price printing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is marked by a blue dotted line. Price could potentially achieve new highs, bringing the bearish CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price action. This proximity would provide a realistic opportunity for price to signal the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling—but not yet confirming—the start of a bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation. Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Continue to short goldFrom the market point of view, the decline of gold in recent trading days is inseparable from the boost of news, but overall, the bears have clearly taken the advantage. In terms of the daily line, the current daily line structure is six consecutive negatives, which is very weak from the perspective of the shape alone, especially after breaking the 2630 low support and closing at a low level. After the gold price tested near 2630 yesterday, the upward weakness was fully revealed. The short-term indicators continued to probe downward, and the price was under pressure. The short-term 5-day moving average and the 20-day moving average formed a strong suppression. The other period moving averages maintained a short-term arrangement and development. The daily line tended to be obviously weak, and the overall bears had the advantage. Operation ideas: It is recommended to continue to look at the performance of bears for intraday operations. As for the upper resistance, continue to pay attention to the 2630 area. This is the low point of last week and is a strong support. It is also the current top-bottom conversion. Therefore, there is a probability of continuing to explore the 2600 area or even breaking through it during the day. If it is strongly broken by the bulls, it may form a wave of continued pull-up. At that time, we need to focus on the intensive strong pressure in the 2645-2650 area. After being pierced at the end of last week, there was a large decline, which fully demonstrated that its suppression was strong, so we can continue to arrange short positions. As for the lower support, pay attention to the 2605-2600 area. As the low point of yesterday's trading, it is the first time to approach it in the white market today. Short-term long can be considered, but any break will increase the probability of short-term extension downward. At that time, we need to pay attention to the short-term support formed in the 2685-2688 area. Of course, for these short-term supports, I think we can only participate in short-term long when the opportunity arises. After all, the current short-term control ability is constantly strengthening.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jfqch1
1
Gold continues to riseDear traders, we bring you better trading strategies every day. We hope you will leave your support after watching. After CPI and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, the US dollar index rose and fell, and gold rebounded upward, allowing the previous weak pattern to continue to return to the range operation. In addition, based on the fact that there was no excessive retracement in the early morning, it rose again to test around 2631. It is difficult to have a large downward space for the day, which increases the demand for continued rebound. In the previous trading day, we first looked at the rebound around the bottom support of 2604, and then looked at the downward trend twice around the top low position of 2624. After three highs of 2624 in the late trading, we did not enter the market again, and finally broke through 2624 and went higher. This round of correction is likely to stop at 2604. Gold has touched the 2600 mark many times but failed to break down successfully. At present, the one-hour market trend has reached 2602 three times and has been pulled up. The support effect of 2600-2602 is obvious, and the gold pull-up has broken through the previous 2624 suppression. In the short term, it will continue to climb upward. In terms of operation, we will mainly do more. In the 4-hour chart, the stochastic indicator crosses upward, indicating a bullish trend. The 4-hour chart has not formed a dead cross yet. If the dead cross crosses downward, the gold price can fall. At present, the gold price in the one-hour chart is running above the moving average. The moving averages have overlapped and are about to form a golden cross, which is basically a done deal. This will inevitably boost the bullish momentum. Today, pay attention to the support of 2625-2620 below and the pressure of 2650-2660 above. In terms of operation, the callback is mainly bullish.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by jfqch1
Gold's strong rise hits key resistanceDear traders, you need to be cautious when trading, and set SL and TP for every transaction. This will better protect your account from being trapped. I will continue to update the gold trading strategy. Gold has tested the 2604 support line several times in the past few days, but failed to break through successfully, indicating that the support at this position is still relatively strong. It is difficult to make a decent adjustment without breaking 2600 in the short term. If it falls back, it will give us an opportunity to enter the market or increase our positions! We still need to pay attention to the 2650 pressure line on the top. If it breaks through this position, then this round of correction will come to an end. Otherwise, gold will continue to fall. On the whole, Jin Shengfu recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2648-2650 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2620-2624 support line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jfqch1
Gold intraday operation suggestionsDear traders, you need to be cautious when trading, and set SL and TP for every transaction. This will better protect your account from being trapped. I will continue to update the gold trading strategy. Last night, the price of gold fell and only reached the 2604 line. This is the second time that it has touched the 2604 line and rebounded again, indicating that the support effect of 2604 is obvious. After the decline last night, gold has entered the stage of rebound correction. We short-term operations followed closely and went long. In the short term, the price of gold will further test the stabilization strength of the 2600 integer mark. If it does not break the support below, it still needs to rebound. Today, the upper resistance will focus on yesterday's opening price around 2625-30, the lower support will focus on the 2600 integer mark, and the short-term gold price long and short strength line is 2630. Gold operation strategy: 1. Go short on the rebound at 2630-35, stop loss at 2643, and target 2605-2608. 2. Gold falls back to the 2600-2605 line and does not break it. Go long, stop loss 2596, target 2625-30 line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jfqch1
Gold fluctuates and falls from high levelDear traders, you need to be cautious when trading, and set SL and TP for every transaction. This will better protect your account from being trapped. I will continue to update the gold trading strategy. Technical analysis of gold: Gold closed higher with a small positive line on the daily line, and continued to rise for five consecutive days, but they were all small positive star K lines, without a high-level volume movement, and belonged to a slow and high-shrinking movement. In the short term, the volume is temporarily insufficient, and the US dollar is also strong, which limits the momentum of further volume of gold prices. Gold was only a line away from a new high yesterday, and fell under pressure. Today, gold is particularly critical. If it breaks through a new high, then gold will rise again. If it falls under pressure again, then gold will start a large correction. In terms of today's short-term operation ideas for gold, Jin Shengfu recommends rebound shorting as the main, and callback long as the auxiliary. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2682-2685 line resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2638-2640 line support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jfqch1
1
Gold range-bound bullishDear traders, you need to be cautious when trading. You must set stop loss and take profit for each transaction. This can better protect your account from being stuck. I will continue to update the crude oil trading strategy. Technical analysis of gold: Gold fluctuated yesterday, opened low in the morning, stabilized and rose at 2643, but fell back in the evening, and the daily line finally closed with a long shadow. Looking at the daily line alone, today should be mainly falling back to high altitude. Although the geopolitical situation provided safe-haven buying support for gold prices earlier, gold prices once rose to a one-week high of $2666.70/ounce, but as the US dollar rebounded to a ten-week high, gold prices gave up gains and closed slightly lower. Gold rose directly yesterday as expected, reaching a high of 2666, and as we analyzed in the morning, it rose again. Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is recommended to be mainly short-selling on rebounds, supplemented by long-selling on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2653-2657 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2620-2624 support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by jfqch1
XAUUSD: There is a possibility of falling below 2700 todayYesterday we waited for the gold price to meet resistance at 2740 before selling, and the effect was very good. Today my strategy is still bearish. As long as 2740 is not effectively broken, the bearish view can be maintained. From the 1H chart, after yesterday's failure to break through the 2740 resistance, the bearish pattern of the head and shoulders top has basically formed, and there is no problem with the lowest position of the head and shoulders top pointing below 2700 points. Therefore, even if today's sharp decline in the market after Black Friday is out, I am not surprised. With the formation of a downward trend, the high point is definitely moving down, so today's selling point can be appropriately lowered a little, in the range of 2730-2740, the target is 2715 first, and then 2700 The above is today's trading strategy. Friends who need to copy my detailed signals and real-time operations can contact me, good luck everyone!
TVC:GOLDShort
by AntonyTP
1
Week of Consistent Wins: Gold Strategy PositioningThis week’s gold strategy has achieved a remarkable 100% success rate, with those who closely followed the trades seeing a 200% profit—congratulations to everyone on consistent gains! Today marks the final trading day of the week, and this key setup will define our closing profitability for the week. Fundamental Analysis: The “U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 19” was a significant bearish driver for gold yesterday, leading to a sharp price drop. This further confirms the strengthening U.S. economy, which continues to weigh on gold. Today’s “October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final” will also reflect U.S. economic conditions and likely adds to the bearish sentiment on gold, presenting another trading opportunity. Technical Analysis: Although the daily chart previously formed a bullish engulfing pattern, this setup has invalidated as gold prices moved higher, and buying pressure increased. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has ceased its decline and is resuming an upward trajectory in the bullish region, signaling renewed buyer interest. Today's Strategy: Based on a combined analysis of fundamental and technical factors, today’s first move is to go long on gold, with a profit target at the 2733-2734 level. After the long position reaches the target, a short position can then be initiated with a profit target between 2720-2718. Given the complex nature of today's trades, if you require my guidance or wish to join the VIP for more real-time strategies, feel free to reach out!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Falcon-Training-Camp
Gold Price Hits New All-Time High Near $2,757 - Have a Look NextGold has once again proven its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset, recently reaching an all-time high just shy of the $2,757 mark. This surge comes amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing expectations for further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Despite a rise in US Treasury yields, the yellow metal's upward momentum remains strong as investors flock to it during times of uncertainty, highlighting its enduring appeal as a store of value. Factors Behind Gold’s Historic Surge 1. Geopolitical Tensions Global geopolitical risks have escalated recently, leading to a rush toward safe-haven assets like gold. Heightened conflicts in the Middle East and lingering tensions in Eastern Europe have fueled fears of broader market instability. Gold, historically seen as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, has been one of the primary beneficiaries as investors seek to protect their portfolios. 2. Expectations of Further Fed Rate Cuts Market sentiment is increasingly tilting toward additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The anticipation of lower interest rates typically supports gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. With economic data pointing to slower growth and possible deflationary pressures, the Fed may be inclined to continue its dovish stance, further boosting gold’s appeal. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand Even as US Treasury yields have risen, signaling expectations of a stronger US economy, gold's ascent has not been hindered. This decoupling suggests that other factors, like risk aversion and safe-haven demand, are currently driving the metal’s price. Growing fears of a potential Trump presidency in 2024 have added an extra layer of uncertainty, prompting investors to seek the stability that gold provides. Technical Analysis: Is a Retracement on the Horizon? From a technical standpoint, the recent surge in gold prices suggests that the metal may be poised for a near-term pullback. Here’s why: Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Analysis: According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bullish on gold, a potential contrarian indicator that often precedes a short-term price reversal. Meanwhile, the so-called "smart money" appears to be scaling back on long positions, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. Seasonal Forecast: Seasonality patterns indicate that gold might be approaching a reversal phase. Historically, gold has shown a tendency to retrace after significant rallies, especially when retail sentiment becomes overly bullish. This seasonal forecast aligns with technical signals that suggest a possible correction. Potential Retracement Levels: If gold begins to retrace from current levels, key support zones to watch would include $2,700 and $2,650, where previous resistance levels could now act as support. Traders should keep a tight stop-loss to protect against potential downside risks, especially given the ongoing volatility in global markets. Trading Strategy: Cautious Optimism with a Tight Stop-Loss While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and monetary easing expectations, short-term traders should exercise caution. With the potential for a near-term pullback, the ideal strategy may involve waiting for a retracement to key support levels before considering new long positions. Risk Management: Given the current elevated price levels, it’s crucial to maintain a tight stop-loss to manage potential downside risk. Potential Reentry: If a retracement occurs, investors could look for signs of stabilization around the $2,650–$2,700 range before reentering the market. Final Thoughts: A Bullish Long-Term Outlook with Short-Term Caution Gold’s recent surge to near $2,750 highlights its role as a global safe haven amidst uncertainty. However, with retail sentiment leaning heavily bullish and the possibility of a technical correction looming, traders should remain cautious in the short term. Despite the potential for a pullback, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, driven by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and overall global economic uncertainty. As always, a balanced approach, considering both the fundamental and technical factors, will be essential to navigating the evolving landscape of gold trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
Gold Trading Strategy: Continued Selling and Rebound ObservationAfter the rebound, gold has dropped again, now breaking below MA60, with short-term moving averages acting as resistance. I believe it’s prudent to continue selling today, with signals already shared at the market open—our regulars have already enjoyed some profits. With the current rebound, I recommend using MA60 and MA30 as reference prices for selling, targeting around 2712. We can then assess the market reaction before deciding whether to buy back in.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MichaeliaDefoe
GOLD H & S HARMONIC PATTERN TIME TO RETRACE HELLO TRADERS As i can see gold had created ATH HIGH 2756$ AS WE ANALYSIS in previous chart successfully hit all given targets chart is attached in comments now we can see gold is rejecting for last ATH and had created now a harmonic pattern H & S its a great opportunity to join the rally till design levels technically its also over bought RSI on weekly chart all time high now above 80 its an some geopolitical talks on going for ceasefire in GAZA and Lebonan Friends its a trade idea with proper risk management make a proper analysis brfore taking any trade ... Stay Tuned for more updates
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
XAU/USD 25 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/intraday expectation remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 24 October 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Driven by the Fed's dovish stance and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has continued its upward surge. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling but not confirming the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: While there are no clear signs of a pullback yet, price is expected to react at either the 50% equilibrium (EQ) or H4 demand zone before targeting the weak internal high. I'll remain on standby for further developments. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis/intraday expectation remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 24 October 2024. Yesterday's intraday expectation was not met, as price failed to target the weak internal high and instead printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This aligns with the H4 timeframe being in a pullback phase. As previously highlighted, price remains highly volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's softer stance. Price has since printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Currently, price is trading within a well-established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is reacting around the 50% equilibrium of the internal range and may also react at nested H4 and M15 supply levels before targeting the weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
Gold needs to hit $2,740 to keep rising.Gold prices continued to rise in the Asian trading session on Friday, marking the second consecutive day of consolidation. Although it reached a record high of $2,759 on Wednesday, prices remained confined within a familiar range since the beginning of the week. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive easing policy, along with uncertainties surrounding the presidential election and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, earnings reports from U.S. companies play a crucial role in shaping risk sentiment, which in turn affects the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) and gold prices. Personal opinion: To maintain a sustainable upward trend, surpassing the resistance level of $2,740 is really important. If successful, this will open up opportunities for gold buyers to continue targeting the psychological barrier of $2,750. If they can break through this level, the next goal will be the record high of $2,759. This indicates that the market is showing positive signs and could continue to grow, offering hope to investors. Pay attention to the price range: Buy Zone: 2704 - 2702 SL: 2697 Buy Zone: 2713 - 2711 SL: 2706 Sell Zone: 2740 - 2742 SL: 2747
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chana-Trading
XAUUSD: Buy@2716-2700 TP2728-2738Today's fluctuations in gold have been massive, dropping from 2758 to 2708. Anticipating a decline, I mentioned continuing to short in my initial strategy, but I didn't expect the bears to be so aggressive, driving the price down by $50. Given this situation, even if there are sudden negative news reports today, it's unlikely that gold will drop more than $15 again. Therefore, from now until the U.S. market opens tomorrow, the trading direction should focus on buying. I believe that before Friday's close, the price could at least return to 2732, or even higher. However, when trading, we shouldn’t set our take profit too high; we should leave some buffer space. The rise should not be abrupt but rather a gradual upward movement. For those who prefer not to trade frequently, after buying, setting the take profit around 2728 should be sufficient. As for future trades, we can decide based on market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mia-Signal
2