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XAUUSD: Will the decline continue after the conflict?Yesterday, the US dollar index rose for the second consecutive trading day, hitting a two-week high, supported by data showing the resilience of the US labor market and the dual support of safe-haven currency properties. It stands to reason that the rise of the US dollar index will suppress gold and cause it to fall. However, due to the sudden escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel, the demand for safe havens has been greatly boosted, resulting in a rare rise in gold and the US dollar together. The escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has indeed greatly affected the direction of gold, but as of now, I don’t think gold supports the momentum to continue to rise sharply. Judging from the news, the rise in gold is due to the situation in the Middle East. If the situation in the Middle East eases next, or the situation is not as tense as the first day, then gold will still fall as it rose. Unless the situation in the Middle East will intensify in the future, and it will be more violent than yesterday’s conflict From the figure, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618 from yesterday’s high of 2673 and today’s low of 2645 is 2655. As long as the rebound does not exceed 0.618, it is bound to fall to a new low. The short position I held yesterday suffered a slight loss due to the sudden outbreak of the Middle East conflict, but I added positions at 2655 and 2666 respectively, which increased the average price and is now profitable. In summary, I still have a bearish view, so I will continue to hold short positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AntonyTP
XAU/USD 02 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has also established the current swing range. At present, we are trading between the swing high and internal low. Price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Additionally, the price has reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Intraday Expectation: The expectation is for price to target a weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. The price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). As previously noted, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Since the last analysis, the price printed a double bullish iBOS, likely driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The price has also printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Currently, price is positioned at the extreme of a strong internal low, with wicks into this level but no decisive close below. Intraday Expectation: The price is expected to target a weak internal high. However, caution is advised, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed the swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which could limit further upside momentum. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
This week's gold trading strategyThis week's gold trading strategy, be able to understand and follow, there will be a 50% profit this week! News: Everyone knows that the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates some time ago, which added a fire to the entire gold market. In addition, the global geopolitical conflict has ignited the entire gold market, causing the price of gold to reach 2700!For all of us traders, what we want to know most is which direction the market should go next. First of all, the news is that the United States has cut interest rates, and the impact of geopolitical risks has been almost digested by the market, so it is a bit difficult for gold to hit the high point! In addition, after the U.S. interest rate cut, it will definitely focus on economic development, so the U.S. economy will improve next, so the dollar index will rise, and the price of gold will also fluctuate and fall! So I judge that in the next week or so, the gold market will fluctuate and fall! Technical aspects: You can see that the candlestick chart of gold is currently in a downtrend channel. Although it has broken through the top of the uptrend channel, it is not a real technical breakthrough. It is caused by today's US data ‘ISM Manufacturing PMI for September'. Gold will return to the trend next, so it is best to go short at a high level, but go long at a low level in the trend! News forecast: U.S. ADP employment in September (10,000 people)-bearish gold U.S. non-farm payrolls after September quarter-adjusted (10,000 people)-bearish gold This week's point strategy: 2670 short, 2675 increase position 2620 go long, 2615 increase position If you want to see specific trading signal strategies, please consult in the comments area!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Falcon-Training-Camp
1
XAUUSD: Swing Buy Reversal is Coming! From 2450 to 2560! Dear Traders, WE have an important entry coming up on Gold, possibly the one which will shape the gold market. After creating a record high and touching the 2530 for the first time, price exhausted and started dropping and ranged between the area. However, if we look into it with areas that gold may reverse from, the area that we find attracting is 2440 to 2450 in which we may see a large volume of buy volume kicking in the market. Good luck.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
17
xau/usd updateThe price action has responded precisely to the support level I highlighted yesterday, rebounding with remarkable accuracy. This movement is part of a broader pattern, as the market has been confined within a descending channel. This channel has essentially acted as a temporary retracement against the dominant trend. Currently, we are witnessing an attempt by the market to break above this channel. Should we see a decisive breakout with a confirmed close above the upper boundary, it could signal the beginning of a strong bullish trend. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the price revisits the support zone before embarking on a more sustained upward trajectory. This is particularly likely in light of the rejection candle observed on the 4-hour chart, which hints at some short-term hesitation. My ultimate target remains the resistance level around 2668.50, as this represents a key area of interest for potential sellers. In summary, while the breakout could ignite bullish momentum, a retest of support seems probable before any substantial move towards the resistance. Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own insights to share, feel free to drop a comment. I’d love to hear your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by lonelyPlayer0
Gold 4H Trend Continuation Setup Gold is currently trading under the FibCloud and touching the 0.6 Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hour chart. While this setup favors a continuation of the downtrend, there’s also a possibility of a breakout at this stage. I expect a potential test of the 2,658 Sunday open area before the market shows its true direction. So far, Gold has been printing a well-controlled downtrend, but it’s important to stay alert for any changes in momentum. Technical Analysis: • Gold is trading below the FibCloud, signaling bearish momentum. • The price is testing the 0.6 Fibonacci retracement, a key level that could either result in a trend continuation or a breakout. • A retest of the 2,658 Sunday open area may occur before the market confirms its next move. • I’m expecting a move towards the 2,600-2,620 price range if the downtrend continues. At this point, the trade could go either way—continuing the downtrend or breaking out. The 2,658 area will be key in determining the next move. For now, Gold has maintained a structured downtrend, and I’m favoring a short position targeting the 2,600-2,620 range. As always, proper risk management is essential in these conditions. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by AR33_
Gold’s Correction Phase: Key Levels and What to Watch NextIn yesterday’s post, I discussed the possibility of a new leg in the ongoing correction for gold, pinpointing the 2630 zone as a potential area for this decline to materialize. As it stands, XAU/USD has indeed dropped to that level and is currently showing signs of recovery. However, there are two key takeaways from yesterday’s price action that need to be highlighted: 1. The correction fits within the broader bullish trend: Despite the pullback, it is essential to recognize that the movement appears corrective rather than a reversal of the overall bullish structure for gold. 2. Caution regarding the end of the correction: While gold is recovering from the 2625 level, it is premature to declare the correction complete. For confirmation that this phase has ended, the price needs to break above the 2650 zone and, crucially, close the day above that level. This would signal stronger momentum and increase the likelihood of further upward movement. With this in mind, the strategy for swing traders remains focused on buying the dips. Until we see a decisive break and daily close above 2650, low volume is advised. If that level is successfully breached, it would serve as confirmation that the recovery is gathering steam and could potentially open the door for gold to target the 2700 level in the near term. In conclusion, while the current correction may have created an opportunity to enter at lower levels, traders should remain cautious and await a clearer signal before committing high volume long positions. The 2650 zone remains the key level to watch for further bullish confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
5
Gold Rally Poised for a Pause? Eyes on a Critical 2650 SupportThe XAU/USD pair has begun to lose some steam after recently marking new local highs. Currently, the price is flirting with the critical 2650 level, now acting as a pivotal support. The market appears to be entering a phase of heightened uncertainty, often referred to as the "panic zone," where traders may seek to lock in profits ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's much-anticipated speech. From a technical perspective, while the overarching trend remains bullish, the momentum that drove the price to its all-time high (ATH) of 2685 seems to have stalled. The market now hesitates, seemingly unwilling to test or break new highs in the immediate future. Much of the earlier bullishness was fueled by expectations surrounding interest rate cuts, but with that catalyst largely absorbed, traders are now turning their attention to upcoming macroeconomic data. Key among these is the Chicago PMI and, more significantly, Powell’s address at 17:55, which could set the tone for the near-term market direction. However, it's important not to overlook the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which continues to inject an element of unpredictability into the market. These external factors, combined with technical considerations, suggest that a deeper retracement could be on the horizon. The technical setup indicates signs of overextension, and given the current market conditions, a correction may be imminent. It is plausible that gold could revisit key support levels in the 2634-2623-2613 range, where buyers might regroup before the next leg of the recovery. The broader price action suggests we may see a consolidation phase before any renewed upward momentum. Resistance zones to watch are at 2660 and 2675, while the key support zones rest at 2634 and 2623. A possible retest of these support areas could offer traders clarity on the market’s next move. A confirmation of range boundaries between 2615 and 2685 may lead to a more extended consolidation period, with the potential for a flat pattern forming between 2600 and 2685. In summary, while the technical outlook remains largely positive in the long term, the market appears primed for a short-term correction. Traders should keep an eye on how the 2634-2613 support region holds up in the face of any selling pressure, as well as the market’s reaction to Powell's speech. The recovery may depend on how the range boundaries are confirmed and the subsequent reaction to key economic and geopolitical developments. Traders, if you found this idea helpful or have your own insights to share, feel free to drop a comment. I’d love to hear your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lonelyPlayer0
XAUUSD: Lows not yet seen, continue to sell at high levelsYesterday, the US dollar index began to rise after Powell's speech, reaching 100.9, and US bond yields also rebounded collectively. Affected by the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, as well as the influx of a large amount of profit-taking funds into the Chinese stock market, gold has continued to fall recently, and yesterday's lowest point reached 2624 US dollars. So is this the low point? I think gold is currently in a downward trend and has not yet formed a bottom pattern. It will only rebound but not reverse. From the trend in the hourly chart, we can see that the gold price is running along the downward trend channel. Now it is again above the trend channel of 2645, so I think the possibility of a breakthrough is not great, so I am going to short around 2645.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AntonyTP
XAU/USD 01 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. The price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has now been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which also establishes the swing range. Currently, we are trading between the swing high and the fractal low. In yesterday's analysis, I noted that the internal range had narrowed significantly, allowing the price to confirm the swing pullback phase by printing the bearish iBOS. This is now reflected in the price action. Intraday Expectation: We expect the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, indicated by a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), denoted with a blue dotted line. However, since the bullish CHoCH is positioned in the premium zone, confirmation of the internal low will only occur if the price retraces to the 50% equilibrium (EQ). H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: Price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). As previously mentioned, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Since the last analysis, price printed another bearish iBOS, followed by a bullish iBOS after reacting from an M15 demand zone. Recent bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) suggests the potential initiation of a bearish pullback phase, though this is not confirmation but an indication. I will closely monitor this as the CHoCH positioning is near the internal high, requiring discretionary judgement. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to target the 50% equilibrium or the M15 supply zone before aiming for a weak internal high. It's important to remain cautious, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which may limit upside momentum. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Tuesday Market Analysis and SignalsIn the Asian market on Tuesday, gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $2,642 per ounce. The price of gold fell by nearly 1% on Monday, and once lost the 2,630 mark during the session, which is exactly where the 10-day moving average support is located. It is also the lowest since September 24. Because the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is hawkish, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November have been reduced. The rebound of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has put pressure on gold prices to pull back. However, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the entry of most central banks in the world into a cycle of interest rate cuts still provide support for gold! Driven by the loose monetary policy of the United States and the intensification of tensions in the Middle East, gold has experienced a historic rise recently. In the third quarter of 2024, gold has risen by more than 13%. Last Thursday, it hit a record high of $2,685, which was mainly driven by the Federal Reserve's half-percentage point cut and the outbreak of war in the Middle East. It should be reminded that when the rise in gold prices is blocked, investors need to beware of the risk of further correction in gold prices. The Eurozone September CPI data will be released on this trading day. Investors need to pay attention to it, focusing on the US September ISM manufacturing PMI, the US August JOLTs job vacancy data, and the news related to the geopolitical situation. Continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials. Gold closed sharply higher on the monthly line, with the long upper shadow 2685/2680 historical high forming a short-term effective high resistance. The daily line fell back yesterday after a high rise and adjusted to the MA10 daily moving average at 2664. The short-term four-hour chart Bollinger band opened downward and the price was in the middle and lower track channel of the Bollinger band. The RSI indicator broke through the middle axis 50 and turned downward. The hourly moving average bonded the price Bollinger band and narrowed. Gold traded high and bought low on Tuesday! Asian trading strategy: 2622-2624 long, stop loss 2613, target 2640-2650; 2643-2645 short, stop loss 2654, target 2620-2610;
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX
Gold’s Correction: Signals to Watch for the Next RallyLast week, I suggested that Gold would experience a pullback at some point. However, this wasn't a prediction of a trend reversal, but rather a temporary correction following its extended upward move. On Friday, Gold did indeed decline, reaching an intraday low in the 2643 zone. Now the key question is: Has the correction ended? In my view, there is still potential for a further dip, with the next leg of the correction possibly pushing Gold down to around 2630, which could present an ideal buying opportunity. In this scenario, Bulls may look for entry points and aim for the recent highs. Additionally, a break above the Asian session high could indicate the correction is over, marking the 2645 zone as the bottom
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
7
XAU/USD 30 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 29 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range. You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish. Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS. H4 Chart: M15 analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Last week's intraday expectation (27 September 2024): In my previous analysis, I mentioned an alternative scenario where, due to all higher time frames (HTFs) requiring a pullback, it would not be surprising if the price printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This is exactly what transpired, with the price printing a bearish iBOS. This marks the first bearish iBOS since 18 September 2024, confirming the swing structure. Following the bearish iBOS, the price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicating a potential shift in momentum. Currently, the price is contained within an internal range and is trading in the premium zone above the 50% equilibrium (EQ) of that range. Intraday Expectation: The price is expected to react at the M15 supply level before potentially targeting a weak internal low. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the near term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD 30/9/2024 Has the uptrend started?Looking at H1 we see that the 5-wave uptrend structure has been completed and we are now in an ABC correction structure The target of this correction I expect to end at the 2607 zone. At that time we can execute a long-term BUY order to continue the uptrend. - The process of price completing the correction wave target needs to absorb strong demand zones along the way. These are the targets for us to be able to BUY short-term by day. - Looking at the Volume profile, we see that there are 2 important demand zones that need to be considered, which are the 2639 - 2636 zone and the 2625 - 2622 zone. These are the border zones where the price is pushed up, so they will be the zones that the BUY side will protect when the price returns, and to break these zones, an absorption process is required and we will take advantage of this to proceed to BUY up. - After completing the adjustment, when the price breaks the peak zone of 2686, confirming that the adjustment process is complete, I then measure the target of the uptrend wave with the first resistance zone at the 2700 zone and above it is the 2738 - 2741 zone. This is also our important SELL target zone. - In which we pay attention to an important zone of 2674, this is a strong supply zone, we can consider SELLing in this zone. SELL ZONE: 2670 - 2673 SL: 2660 TP1: 2651 TP2: 2641 SELL ZONE: 2697 - 2700 SL: 2707 TP1: 2684 TP2: 2674 TP3: 2655 BUY ZONE: 2639 - 2636 SL: 2629 TP1: 2655 TP2: 2674 TP3: 2684
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DEEKOP
Monday Market Analysis and SignalsSpot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Monday, and is currently trading at $2,653 per ounce. Gold prices fell 0.5% last Friday. After the release of the US PCE data, some bulls took profits, dragging down the price of gold. As the United States began to implement loose monetary policies to boost the attractiveness of gold, gold prices have set new historical highs in recent trading days, and the weekly line still closed higher, with three consecutive weekly gains. The third quarter is expected to be the best quarter in more than eight years. In addition, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East also provides safe-haven support for gold. Several historical highs were set last week, highlighting investors' strong expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors' interest has been rekindled as lower interest rates have weakened the transaction costs of gold. As an interest-free asset, gold is more attractive in an interest rate cut environment, pushing gold prices up by about 14% this quarter, the best quarterly performance since 2016. The US September NFP report will be released this week, and investors need to pay close attention. In addition, they need to pay close attention to news related to the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the performance of global stock markets and changes in risk aversion. This trading day needs to focus on the speech delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the National Association for Business Economics. However, it should be reminded that this trading day is the last trading day in September and the last trading day in the third quarter. Investors also need to beware of the possibility of abnormal market fluctuations caused by dealer position adjustments. Technical aspect Technically, the gold daily and weekly lines still maintain a good trend bullish structure, and the price runs around the bullish rising trend channel. At present, the daily line rises above 2685, and the long volume is released, and the indicator is stagnant and overbought, forming a short-term correction and repair, and the daily line forms a red and blue alternating closing. The price continues to maintain the MA10/7-day moving average at 2650/2627, opening upward and gradually moving up. The short-term four-hour chart retreated to the lower track of the Bollinger band on Friday to form a bottoming rebound. The technical trading ideas of gold remain unchanged and the trend is mainly low and long! Use 2643 as a long stop loss to participate in long positions, and the upper suppression points are 2675 and 2685
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX