Xauusdupdates
GOLD - Rockin' Higher (MACRO BULLISH!!!!)From a macro perspective, the bullish trend has just been confirmed. With the current worldwide uncertainty regarding monetary policies, the wars going on and the political conflicts people tend to swift towards safe havens like gold since their store of value does not deteriorate in an economic crisis, it's always on demand and easily convertible. History doesn’t repeat itself but it certainly rhymes.
We have two active Time at Mode weekly bullish trends.
First trend expires mid September with the highest target of $2,900.
Second trend expires in November with the highest target of $3,100.
Combining both short and longer term trends, we could easily expect price continuation toward $3,000's by the end of the year.
Gold- Correction or continuation?Yesterday, gold corrected Friday's strong upward move and dropped precisely into my buy zone. A recovery followed, with the uptrend resuming; however, the price was unable to surpass the recent all-time high (ATH) and began to decline again.
While there is a possibility that a double-top pattern could be forming, this has not been confirmed, and the overall trend remains strongly bullish.
In my opinion, bulls have little to worry about as long as the price stays above the 2480-2485 zone.
Buying on dips should continue to be the strategy.
Gold's Explosive Breakout: Is $2,550 the Next Stop?Updated Technical Analysis: XAUUSD (Gold Spot)
1. Market Structure and Key Patterns
Weekly Flag Pattern (Higher Time Frame)
Formation: On the 4H chart, we observe a textbook weekly flag pattern where the price consolidated in a downward-sloping channel (flag) after a strong bullish move (flagpole). This consolidation usually represents a temporary pause in the overall bullish trend, with a potential breakout to the upside signaling a continuation.
Breakout Confirmation: The price has broken out of this flag, aligning with the broader market's bullish sentiment. This is a key signal for continuation traders, suggesting that the previous consolidation phase is complete, and the market may be resuming its upward trend.
Ascending Channel (Lower Time Frame)
Channel Dynamics: On the 15M and 1H charts, the price has been moving within an ascending channel, which indicates a series of higher highs and higher lows—a sign of a bullish trend. This channel has been respected multiple times, indicating that the market participants are recognizing and trading off this structure.
Channel Breakout: The breakout above the channel’s upper boundary is critical, as it suggests that the bullish momentum is accelerating. This breakout aligns with the breakout from the weekly flag, adding confluence to the bullish outlook.
2. Key Levels and Liquidity Zones (LQZ)
Resistance Zone (Broken)
Previous Resistance: The blue rectangle on the chart marks a significant resistance level where the price previously struggled to break above. After several attempts and consolidations near this zone, the recent breakout indicates that the sellers have been overwhelmed by buyers.
Potential Retest Area: The broken resistance could now serve as a support level. A retest of this zone could provide a high-probability entry for traders looking to join the trend. This area is crucial for validating the strength of the breakout.
Liquidity Zones (LQZ)
LQZ at $2,485 and $2,477: These zones, identified on the 15M chart, are areas of high trading activity, often leading to significant price reactions when revisited. The price did not retrace deeply into these zones before the breakout, indicating strong bullish momentum.
3. Implications of the Breakout
Momentum Shift:
The breakout above the resistance zone at approximately $2,509-$2,510, followed by a rapid upward move to $2,520, indicates a shift in market sentiment. The rapidity of this move suggests a possible short squeeze or significant buying interest pushing the price higher.
Potential Targets:
Short-Term Targets: Immediate resistance can be anticipated near psychological levels like $2,525 and $2,530. These levels often act as short-term hurdles where some profit-taking might occur.
Longer-Term Targets: Given the alignment with the weekly flag breakout, the price could aim for more distant targets around $2,550 or higher, depending on how momentum sustains.
4. Risk Management and Trade Execution
Entry Strategy:
Reduced Risk Entry: Awaiting a pullback to the broken resistance zone around $2,509-$2,510 for a long entry. This approach reduces the risk by confirming that the previous resistance has turned into support.
Aggressive Entry: Traders could enter on any minor pullbacks within the ongoing momentum, with stops placed just below the breakout zone or recent swing lows. This is riskier but capitalizes on the strong momentum.
Stop Loss Placement:
Below Breakout Zone: Stops should be placed just below the $2,509 level to protect against a false breakout. Alternatively, more conservative stops could be placed below the previous swing low around $2,497-$2,500, depending on risk tolerance.
Trailing Stops: As the price moves in your favor, consider trailing the stop loss below higher lows on lower time frames (15M or 1H) to lock in profits while allowing the trade to breathe.
5. Momentum and Volume Analysis
Volume Confirmation: Look for volume spikes accompanying the breakout. Higher volume supports the legitimacy of the breakout, whereas a lack of volume could suggest a potential for a pullback.
6. Mass Psychology and Sentiment
Sentiment Dynamics:
The breakout could be driven by a shift in market sentiment, with traders and investors who were previously on the sidelines now entering the market. This FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) can fuel further buying.
Contrarian Signals: While the breakout is bullish, be wary of excessive euphoria. A sudden surge in buying could be followed by a sharp pullback as early buyers take profits. Monitoring sentiment indicators and social media trends can offer additional insights into potential sentiment extremes.
Conclusion
The current technical setup for XAUUSD is strongly bullish, with the breakout confirming the potential for further upside. However, risk management remains crucial, particularly in ensuring that stop losses are placed appropriately and that any pullback is closely monitored for signs of support. The alignment of the weekly flag breakout with the shorter-term ascending channel breakout adds significant weight to the bullish case, making this a high-probability setup for continuation trades.
XAU/USD 20 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Intraday expectation to remain the same as analysis dated 18 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning.
Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 19 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 16 August 2024, whereby internal structure was bearish. We needed to be mindful that H4 internal structure was bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS and iBOS.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price to react at discount of 50% EQ, or M15 demand level to target weak internal high. Price may seek liquidity at M15 supply level to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Alternative scenario: Price to target weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
Sleeping Giant Awakes: Gold's Path to $2,800If you haven`t bought Gold before the previous breakout:
Now I am optimistic that GOLD is on the cusp of reaching a new all-time high, with a target of $2,800 by year's end, driven by a significant breakout.
The bullish sentiment is clearly reflected in the options chain for major gold miners!
Provided that gold maintains its position above the crucial support level of $2,428, the bullish trajectory remains intact. We foresee gold not only surpassing its historical high of $2,483 in the near future but also advancing to $2,800.
After lying dormant for many years, this sleeping giant appears ready to awaken and exhibit remarkable growth.
Gold Testing Rising Wedge Upper Trendline, will Dump frm Here???in this analysis , i m analysing gold chart on daily and 4hr. on daily there is rising wedge pattern gold yesterday tested upper trendline on the chart pattern. on lower-timeframe we can see reaction bt as we seen gold is going parabolic frm few months, things may go very wild frm here
Gold could continue its riseLast week was marked by significant volatility in gold prices, with fluctuations amounting to hundreds of pips. However, on Friday, the bulls took full control, driving the price above the important milestone of 2500.
Currently, the price is undergoing a minor correction and consolidation phase. I expect it to resume its upward trend once this period concludes. The 2480 zone offers strong support, and any dips into this area should be considered buying opportunities.
The first target could be set at Friday's high of 2510, with a second target at the 2520 zone, which aligns with the measured target for the recent small triangle pattern.
XAU/USD Outlook ICT ConceptsXAU/USD Analysis
💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on XAU/USD, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
💡 Previous Analysis Review:
In the previous analysis, we anticipated an expansion higher, which successfully played out as the market took out the Previous Month High (PMH). This confirms the bullish momentum in the short term. However, after such a strong move, a retracement is likely.
📍Current Market Overview:
• Current Price: XAU/USD is trading at 2,489.940, having recently peaked above the PMH.
Key Levels:
• PMH: The level has been breached, providing a signal for a possible reversal.
• 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG): Located just below the current price, this gap is the first area to watch for potential support.
• Daily FVG: Positioned further below, this level might act as a stronger support zone if the price continues to retrace.
• PWL (Previous Week Low): A key level that could act as support during a deeper retracement.
🔍 Identifying Key Levels
• PWH (Previous Week High): Recently swept, adding to the likelihood of a pullback.
• PMH (Previous Month High): Breached, signaling a potential reversal.
• PWL: Positioned around 2,424.000, this level could offer strong support during a retracement.
• SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Positioned lower, indicating potential targets if the retracement extends.
• 4H FVG & Daily FVG: These gaps serve as potential areas of interest for buyers during the retracement.
📊 Key Considerations
• Post-PMH Breach: After breaching the PMH, the market often retraces to a key support area, which could either be the 4H FVG or the Daily FVG.
• Potential Retracement Zones: The 4H FVG is the first area to watch for a reaction, but if the market fails to hold there, the Daily FVG and PWL become critical.
• Sell-Side Target: If the retracement deepens, the SSL zone near the 2,353.500 level could be a key target for sellers.
📈 Bullish Scenario
For the bullish scenario to continue:
• Hold Above 4H FVG: The price needs to find support around the 4H FVG and resume its upward trend.
• Rejection at Lower FVG: If the price retraces to the Daily FVG and finds strong buying interest, this could trigger another move higher, potentially targeting new highs.
📉 Bearish Scenario
A bearish scenario should be considered if:
• Break Below FVG Levels: If the price breaks below the 4H FVG and fails to find support at the Daily FVG, a deeper retracement could be underway.
• Targeting SSL: A failure to hold above the Daily FVG could lead to a move targeting the SSL and potentially the PML (Previous Month Low) around 2,310.500.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary
• Bullish Expectation: Requires a strong defense of the 4H FVG, with the market potentially finding support at the Daily FVG if needed.
• Bearish Expectation: A break below these gaps could open the door for a deeper retracement, with the SSL and PML as potential targets.
📝 Conclusion:
After the expansion higher and breach of the PMH, a retracement is expected. The 4H FVG and Daily FVG are the immediate areas of interest for potential support. However, if these levels do not hold, a deeper move towards the sell-side targets is likely.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring XAU/USD today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
XAUUSD: Continue to go long after the gold price pulls back.Strong support position 2458-2464.
The first buying point is around 2370.
The second buying point is around 2464
The third buying point is around 2458.
The upper space. Without the influence of the dominant news, the target is 2480. If there is a positive impact of the dominant news, the target is 2500. COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
XAU/USD 19 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 18 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning.
Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 16 August 2024, whereby internal structure was bearish. We needed to be mindful that H4 internal structure was bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS and iBOS.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price to react at discount of 50% EQ, or M15 demand level to target weak internal high. Price may seek liquidity at M15 supply level to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Alternative scenario: Price to target weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD 19/8/2024 price has created ATH?Last weekend we had a strong increase on Friday that broke the old peak to create a new ATH.
This increase has caused the RSI indicator to enter the overbought zone. In my experience, when the price moves quickly and sharply while looking at the RSI entering the oversold zone, this is a sign of wave 3.
- Currently we see the price falling to the 2500 zone, so we expect an ABC downtrend structure of wave 4.
- I measured the wave 4 target at the 2485 - 2483 zone, after reaching the wave 4 target, we expect a wave 5 increase to complete the 5-wave uptrend structure.
- I measured the wave 5 target at 2517 - 2520 and 2531- 2534 zones, these are the 2 target zones I expect to SELL down.
Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 2467 - 2463
SL: 2457
TP1: 2493
TP2: 2500
TP3: 2517
BUY ZONE: 2485 - 2482
SL: 2475
TP1: 2500
TP2: 2509
TP3: 2517
SELL ZONE: 2517 2520
SL: 2527
TP1: 2506
TP2: 2500
TP3: 2484
SELL ZONE: 2531 - 2534
SL: 2541
TP1: 2519
TP2: 2500
TP3: 2484
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RALLY BASE RALLY GOLD IS STILL RUNNING ON BULLISH 2650?RALLY BASE RALLY GOLD IS STILL RUNNING ON BULLISH
There Will Be A Small Correction Gold Next Week And Again Will Fly High As The Price Action. Gold Has Break The Major Resistance Level Last Friday So Potentially Gold Can Reach 2650 Level Before Fall.
Daily Candle Has Closed Strongly And Also The Weekly Candle.
XAU/USD 19-23 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure: Bullish.
Internal Structure: Bullish.
Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation.
The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line.
I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought close to current price action.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback.
First indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH.
Bearish CHoCH positioning, which is denoted with a blue dotted line, and 50% internal EQ are almost identical.
We currently do not have any indication of price pulling back.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning.
Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback.
H4 Chart:
#XAUUSD Medium-term GOLD trends, new peaks, opportunities, risksGold analysis 19/08-23/08/2024:
Last week, gold broke through the previous peak at 2484 and closed the candle at 2508. The likelihood of gold creating a new peak around 251x is very high. After forming the peak, gold will likely experience a significant correction. The price has a high chance of returning to the 242x area, which serves as a momentum-building phase to continue the uptrend.
The main trading direction for this week will be BUY.
Key price areas to watch: 2510 - 2520, 2477 - 2481, 2498 - 2505, 2424 - 2435.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: SELL XAUUSD zone 2515 - 2518
SL 2521
TP 2507 - 2500 - 2490 - 2480.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2477-2480
SL 2474
TP 2485 - 2495 - 2505.
Plan 3: BUY XAUUSD zone 2424 - 2427
SL 2421
TP 2432 - 2450 - 2480 - 2567.
XAUUSD Bullish momentum started again**Monthly Chart**
XAUUSD monthly candle closed as doji due to the sideway movement of this pair between the High 2387.78 and low 2286.83 levels. This has created indecision bias in the market. Due to geopolitics reasons, this pair has strong momentum to move higher in the next few months. Therefore, we shall assess this pair near supply and demand zones for better risk-to-reward trades.
XAUUSD has reached a new record high this month at 2,483.74 on 17th July 2024. However, this monthly candle is still active and bullish. This still confirmed the long-term bias is bullish for Gold.
Last week, we saw a big selloff in XAUUSD for profit-taking after it reached a new record high. While the long-term outlook for the XAUUSD (Gold) is still bullish.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week's candle closed bearish after testing the midlevel of the previous week's key reversal. It has also tested the IPA of the 1st July 2024 week at 2,353.195 before moving higher. This has confirmed that the sell-off was completed and the buyers are entering the market as it pushed XAUUSD higher.
**Daily Chart**
Last week's move was a continuation of the previous weekly sell-off move and only tested the relative daily low at around the 2,353.19 level before it turned around and started a bullish move. For this week I expect to continue to be bullish and we will probably see a new high formed above 2,500 level in the coming weeks.
XAUUSD Where it is going first?**Monthly Chart**
Last month's XAUUSD (Gold) candle closed as a large bullish candle after creating a new record high shy of the 2,500 level (round number). This indicates that traders will try to push the price higher to break the record high. This is in line with geopolitical reasons happening in the Middle East at the current moment.
This month's candle, which is still active, tested 50% of last month's candle and tried to push higher again after a large sell-off last week (Monday—5th August 2024).
**Weekly Chart**
The last weekly candle closed as a bullish fakey candle (or low test in the supply zone), indicating a solid buy around 2400 levels for 300 pips up. However, the price must still break the low at around 2360 levels before it pushes strongly upwards. This week, we will examine the price movement for a better entry setup to buy from the demand zone.
**Daily Chart**
Friday's candle closed as an indecision doji after testing the IPA (or FVG candle), indicating an indecision move after large buys from the previous day. This week, I would like XAUUSD to move lower first to test the liquidity pool generated around the 2,360 level. This level has created a great buying opportunity before the price moves higher and creates a new high.