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Friday market analysis, continue to see new highsGold held near its all-time high on Friday, now at $2,570. Gold prices rose more than 2% on Thursday, hitting a record high, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, after data showed a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In addition, the ECB's rate cut also reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, and geopolitical concerns continue to provide safe-haven buying support for gold prices. Gold prices soared to a record high after U.S. initial jobless claims and producer inflation data further indicated that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week. The European Central Bank cut interest rates again on Thursday and hinted that borrowing costs will be on a "downward path" in the coming months. Currently, inflation in the eurozone is slowing, and the ECB's further rate cut has raised expectations that many central banks around the world will cut interest rates multiple times in the future, increasing the attractiveness of gold. Pay attention to the U.S. import price index in August, the preliminary value of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September, the eurozone finance ministers' meeting, and news related to the geopolitical situation during this trading day. Technical aspect Technical aspect: Gold hit a new record high, breaking the wide range of 2530~500 this week. The daily increase is close to 50 US dollars. The MACD momentum column of the short-term four-hour chart is large, and the RSI indicator is close to 80, close to the overbought zone. The price runs along the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and the moving average golden cross opens upward. Technically, the structure of gold's bullish trend is intact. It is expected that there will be at least one bullish sprint to a new high on Friday. The trading idea is to go long at a low price. In short, don't guess the top. You will find that trading will be simple and easy if you follow the trend. Trading strategy: 2548-2550 long, stop loss 2539, target 2570-2580; 2577-2579 short, stop loss 2588, target 2550-2540;
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX
Gold- This correction should be boughtIn my comment yesterday, I speculated about the nature of the breakout, as it had been clear after a month of testing the all-time high (ATH) that an upward move was imminent. The breakout was strong, suggesting more gains and new ATHs in the future. The new ATH is now set at 2570, and the price is currently undergoing a normal correction. While the old ATH provides support, I don't expect a retest today or early next week. Therefore, short positions aren't advisable. Instead, look for buying opportunities around the 2550 level, given the market's strong bullish momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
XAU/USD 13 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS without any significant pullback following previous bullish iBOS Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Intraday expectation: Price indicate pullback by printing bearish CHoCH. Current CHoCH is significantly far, therefore, price could print higher-highs to bring CHoCH positioning closer to current price. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Price has printed a bullish BOS with price failing to target weak internal low. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. At he time of writing it seems price is print higher-highs. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish pullback phase, target either M15 demand zones or price reacts at discount of internal 50% EQ. Alternative scenario, price prints bullish iBOS, confirming internal range low. This would give more realistic LTF confirmation that HTF is in pullback phase. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
New ATH looks imminent, but how will the break be?Yesterday's CPI report failed to provide a clear direction for Gold's mid-term movement. After initial volatility, during which the $2500 level held as support for the fourth time in two days, Gold once again closed the day near the middle of its range. While we can't draw a definitive conclusion from the price action, it seems that the price is pressing towards the previous all-time high, and a new high appears imminent. In the short term, the outlook remains bullish as long as the $2500 level holds. The key mid-term question is: What will the nature of the potential breakout be (if one occurs)? Given the more than one-month consolidation, we could see a strong breakout with upward acceleration. However, the $2540 zone, which serves as resistance in the newly formed upward channel, poses a technical challenge. A failure to break above this level could see Gold retreat below $2500. In conclusion: Short-term outlook remains bullish, but mid-term direction is still unclear.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
XAUUSD: Trading in support or resistance areasAfter the CPI inflation data released yesterday, the market predicts that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the meeting next week has dropped from 44% a week ago to 13%, so the probability of a 25% basis point rate cut in September has basically become a foregone conclusion. Smaller and more conservative rate cuts are not good news for gold, but it is still a certainty that the rate cut will be beneficial to gold. However, after the impact of the rate cuts in the past 1-2 months, most of the gold price has been digested in the process of rising. So I think that if the gold price cannot set a new record high in the next 1-2 weeks, then there will be a downward trend in gold. From the perspective of the gold market, the gold price is now at 2516, which is the middle position between the lower support of 2500 and the upper resistance of 2530. It is not good to be bullish or bearish here, so we need to wait for the market to approach the support or resistance before formulating a trading plan today. The trading plan is as follows: If the gold price reaches around 2530, you can sell here without breaking a new high If the gold price reaches the 2500-2510 area, you can buy without breaking support Based on the fundamentals of smaller interest rate cuts, I prefer to be bearish at high levels rather than bullish at lower levels. Risk data to watch out for today: European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Data U.S. August PPI Data
TVC:GOLDShort
by AntonyTP
6
Gold (XAU/USD) Short Setup on Daily Timeframe Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading near a resistance zone on the daily chart, presenting a potential short setup. With key U.S. economic data, including the CPI (Consumer Price Index), set to be released today, there is a high probability of increased volatility, which could drive the price lower if the data supports USD strength. Technical Analysis: • Resistance Zone: The daily chart shows Gold testing a significant resistance level around 2,520. This level has previously acted as a strong barrier, making it an ideal spot for a potential reversal. • Bearish Candlestick Formation: The recent price action has formed a bearish rejection pattern, indicating that sellers may be stepping in at this level. • Downside Targets: The initial target for this short setup is around 2,500, where the next significant support lies. A further decline could see the price move towards 2,480 if the bearish momentum continues. Fundamental Analysis: • USD CPI Data: Today’s U.S. CPI release is critical, as it will provide insight into inflationary pressures and could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A higher-than-expected CPI could strengthen the USD, putting additional pressure on Gold prices. • Market Sentiment: The market may already be pricing in expectations for the CPI data, so it’s essential to watch the actual release closely. A stronger USD could lead to a significant selloff in Gold, validating this short setup. Risk Management: • Volatility Caution: Given the importance of the CPI data, expect increased volatility during and after the release. Ensure your position size reflects this potential risk. • Trailing Stop: Consider using a trailing stop if the trade moves in your favor to lock in profits while allowing the position to run if the decline continues. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by AR33_
1
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailLast week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained range-bound, trading within the $2,510 and $2,530. This followed a rebound fueled by weak Nonfarm Payrolls data, which showed a significant slowdown in US hiring. Traders reacted quickly, with Fed interest rate cut probabilities fluctuating. At one point, a 50 bps cut was priced in with 70% odds, but by the end of the week, a 25 bps cut became the most likely scenario. Adding to the dovish sentiment, several Fed policymakers, including John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Austan Goolsbee, have signalled their openness to easing monetary policy. With the Fed leaning towards rate cuts, what does this mean for Gold's price in the coming week? Join me in this video as I analyze the latest developments and discuss the potential path for Gold. XAUUSD Technical Overview: This week, we're focusing on the $2,485 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights! 📌 Follow my journey as I map out the next moves in this dynamic market! #GoldPrice #XAUUSD #Forex #MarketAnalysis #FedRateCut #GoldOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #NonfarmPayrolls #CMEFedWatchTool📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
XAU/USD 12 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following bullish iBOS price did not pull back to either H4 POI's or discount of internal 50% EQ which indicates XAU strength. Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Intraday expectation: Whilst price has continued bullish it is my concern that price did not pull back deep enough to grab liquidity in order to sustain a bullish push. Looking to the left price has made several failed attempts. Price should technically target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis. Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high. Price is currently reacting at another M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price is close to extreme premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Today's strategy is running in the range of 2500~2530The price fluctuated in a narrow range on Thursday, and the current price is around 2516. Gold prices rose and fell on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven buying. Gold prices rose to around 2529 earlier in the session on Wednesday, approaching the historical high, but after the US CPI data, gold gave up its gains and fell to around the 2500 mark at one point, as US inflation data prompted investors to reduce their expectations of the Federal Reserve's super-large interest rate cut next week, and the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened. Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become a problem for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday. The focus now is on the core CPI monthly rate data, which tends to increase concerns about stubborn inflation. Those among the FOMC members who are worried about monetary policy turning too fast or too decisively will certainly strongly oppose a 50 basis point rate cut next week. This is expected to provide some support for gold prices, as a rate cut will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday, which may also help the market assess the scale of the Federal Reserve's September rate cut. In addition, investors are also paying attention to the US initial jobless claims report. We also need to pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and news related to the geopolitical situation. Technical aspect: Gold closed slightly lower yesterday, ending the two-day long bullish trend. The 20-cycle Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continued to shrink and the upper and lower tracks were compressed to 2527/2487. The RSI indicator was flat around the middle axis, and the MA10/7-day moving average was glued. There was no obvious trend in the short term, and the high-level wide fluctuations may continue. Continue to refer to the 2500-2530 range for high selling and low buying during the day. Trading strategy: 2496-2500 long, stop loss 2488, target 2520-2530; 2526-2530 short, stop loss 2539, target 2500-2490; See below for more signals
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX
1
Gold, what is next, up or down, does anyone know?)After my last post on GOLD the price nearly hit my target at the all-time high (ATH), but now we're in a tricky situation: 1. We’ve got equal lows (EQL) and equal highs (EQH) forming on GOLD. 2. The price grabbed liquidity from the previous week's high (PWH), then nuked and closed below both the daily open and weekly open (WO) levels. 3. On the lower timeframes (5-15m), we've got market structure shifts (MS) and break of structure (BOS). Given all these factors, I see three possible scenarios—two bearish and one bullish—all depending on how Monday and Tuesday’s price action (PA) plays out: 1. **Most likely**: A pump to the 15m order block (OB) in the golden pocket before moving downward toward the EQL. 2. **Bearish scenario**: The price drops from the market open straight down to EQL without testing any higher zones. 3. **Bullish scenario**: The price surges higher, closes above the 15m OB, and continues pushing toward the ATH. Once either EQL or EQH is hit, we’ll need to watch for a reaction. Follow me if you don’t want to miss more insights like this!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Almenio
2
XAUUSD 12/9/2024 will the gold price continue to decrease Looking at H1, we see a complete Elliot structure has been completed including 5 main waves and 3 abc correction waves, I used purple to symbolize on the chart - Following a complete structure is a new trend that coincides with the main trend with a 5-wave structure - Currently, we predict that wave 1 in the new trend has been completed and wave 2 is being completed - The target area of ​​wave 2 I measured at the area of ​​2508 - 2505, we will use this price area as the target to BUY up according to wave 3 - At that time, we measure the target of wave 3 at least at the area of ​​2538 - 2541 and this price area will be our Sell target to catch the wave 4 correction down - I still reserve a case that the current price wave 2 continues to adjust according to the abc structure that has not ended, then we will have a target BUY at 2494 - 2491 Trading Plan BUY ZONE: 2508 - 2505 SL: 2498 TP1: 2516 TP2: 2525 TP3: 2532 BUY ZONE: 2494 - 2491 SL: 2484 TP1: 2500 TP2: 2508 TP3: 2520 SELL ZONE: 2538 - 2541 SL: 2548 TP1: 2531 TP2: 2525 TP3: 2517
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DEEKOP
A sharp reaction to the news A sharp reaction to the news The XAU/USD market is driven by several macroeconomic factors, including interest rates, inflation expectations, geopolitical tensions, and overall risk sentiment in global financial markets. To understand how the price of XAU/USD might behave in the near term, let's examine the key factors at play: 1. Current Market Environment: Global Inflation: Persistently high inflation typically supports gold prices as gold is considered a hedge against inflation. If inflation remains elevated, investors might continue to seek gold as a store of value. US Dollar Strength: Gold prices are inversely related to the US dollar. A strong dollar can push gold prices lower as gold becomes more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, gold prices can rise. Interest Rates: Central bank policies, particularly the US Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, play a significant role. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold (which doesn’t pay interest), potentially leading to lower demand. On the other hand, a dovish stance or rate cuts support gold prices.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by seventhlab
CPI blockbuster data hits, will it break through or fall again?At present, the controversy over whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September is still uncertain. Since March this year, the US CPI data has continued to decline, and this CPI is the last heavy data before the Fed's September meeting, and it is also the last chance to shake the expectation of interest rate cuts. As of now, the market expects a 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a 31% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. Therefore, the results of today's CPI data release are likely to affect the sharp fluctuations in gold. Regardless of the results of today's data release, we must be cautious in trading, because the results of large fluctuations are difficult to judge. At the same time, in addition to the direct impact on the economy, it will also affect the expectations of interest rate cuts. At that time, the large fluctuations in gold prices up and down also need to be prevented. As can be seen from the 4H chart, there is a strong resistance near the 2530 line. So far, it has failed to break through 7 times. Whether it will fall again or set a new high depends on the results of the CPI release. Here I give the following trading strategies for your reference: The first option is to sell at a high level, with a target of around 2505. The second option is to wait for the price to fall back to around 2505 and buy.
TVC:GOLD
by AntonyTP
Analysis of gold price trend on WednesdayGold continued to rise on Wednesday, and the current price is around 2526. Gold prices continued to rise by about 0.42% on Tuesday, rising for two consecutive trading days. U.S. Treasury yields continued to weaken, hitting a 15-month low, providing momentum for gold prices to rise; the geopolitical situation remains tense, which also attracts safe-haven buying to support gold. Currently, market participants are preparing for the release of U.S. inflation data to find further clues on the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut next week. If the core CPI rises by 0.4% or more month-on-month, U.S. Treasury yields may rebound, causing gold to lose its footing. On the other hand, if the data is equal to or lower than market expectations, it may make it difficult for the dollar to attract investors, thereby helping gold to rise. It should be reminded that the U.S. dollar index fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, holding on to the gains of the previous two trading days, which made gold bulls still cautious. The market is paying attention to the U.S. presidential candidate debate and inflation data. If Trump wins, the dollar will rise, tariffs may support the dollar, and increased fiscal spending may boost interest rates. Technical aspect Gold still maintains a bullish structure, with continuous daily increases. The New York closing price is above the MA10 daily average line of 2506, above the middle axis of the RSI indicator, and above the middle track of the Bollinger band and the 5-day average line of 2510. The short-term four-hour chart shows a continuous positive structure above the 2500 mark, the moving average system golden cross opens upward, and the RSI indicator hooks upward. Technically, gold maintains a bullish structure. The heavy data CPI in the US market needs to focus on the impact on the trend of the gold and silver markets. This data is comparable to the non-agricultural data and even better. At that time, the market volatility will increase. Trading strategy: 2503-2505 long, target 2520-2530; 2525-2528 short, target 2500-2490; Check out my profile for more free sharing and profits.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-goldFX
1
XAUUSD Short/Sell Swing Trade Analysis| Huge Profit Inside Reason for Sell A major announcement in the market! There's a big event coming up soon. Wednesday, 11 September, 12:30 p.m. UTC: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. On September 11th at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index report. In July 2024, the US annual inflation rates dropped to 2.9% and 3.2% for headline and core inflation, respectively. The market anticipates a 0.2% increase in monthly inflation and a 2.6% annual rise. The report will influence whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 or 25 basis points in September. If the figures fall below expectations, the U.S. dollar may weaken, impacting EURUSD and XAUUSD positively. Conversely, better-than-expected figures could strengthen the U.S. dollar, pushing EURUSD and XAUUSD down. How will this event affect your trading routine? Share in the comments! Are you interested in trading with this information? Follow the link in our bio to get started! #Trading #Forex #WeeklyTradingCalendar #MarketUpdates
OANDA:XAUUSD
by kripsonfx97
XAUUSD: Before CPI is announced, buy if 2500 does not breakFrom the hourly chart, we can see that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is 2507, and the swing level of 2500-2505 has now formed a breakout pattern, so this range has now turned into support. Now as long as it can break through 2507, the gold price is likely to form a high again and try to touch the 2530 line. So far this week, the volatility is not large. The market seems to be waiting for tomorrow's CPI data. Before the release of CPI, there is almost no data that can affect the trend of gold. Therefore, I think before CPI, the support below is solid. The key is to look at the 2500 integer mark. As long as it is not broken, I will be bullish before CPI.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AntonyTP