Will the price of gold still fall today?U.S. data released on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ended June 15 was 238,000, compared with expectations for 235,000. The pace of U.S. homebuilding fell to its slowest pace in four years in May as higher interest rates took some of the momentum out of the housing sector earlier this year. Data last week showed some easing in labor market and price pressures, while weak retail sales data released on Tuesday showed that economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter. While the Federal Reserve is leaning toward one rate cut, market speculation suggests two cuts could come, driven by slowing inflation and cooling economic conditions. These factors have kept traders on their toes, awaiting upcoming economic reports for clearer clues. Precious metals bulls became more confident later in the week after data earlier this week showed weak U.S. retail sales. According to CME Fed's "FedWatch," traders are now pricing in about a 64% chance of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Falling interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold as it does not earn interest. Rising geopolitical risks have helped gold prices rise. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel threatens to launch an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. This, coupled with the recent agreement between Russia and North Korea, may increase the appeal of gold, which is currently trading near key resistance levels. Despite the rebound in the US dollar, gold prices still hit a new high this week. The Fed's expectations of a rate cut in September are good for gold. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainty in Europe also provide support for gold.
Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: Gold has recently collapsed from the high of 2388, and fell to around 2287 to be supported. This week did not continue the decline, but rebounded with a slow and volatile rise. The next day, there was a continuous rise, successfully breaking the 2450-2388 downward channel, and the highest has returned to around 2365, and stabilized at the key point of 2342. Gold has currently broken through the key points of 2345-2355, and the 4-hour continuous rise has opened up the Bollinger upper rail space. The daily line also ended with a big rise, and the MA5-MA10 moving average maintained a golden cross. Short-term bulls have regained their upward momentum, and bullish sentiment is relatively optimistic. What needs attention is that today is Friday, beware of the sharp decline and the appearance of black swans.
Yesterday, it was explained that the price of gold fell into the end of the triangular wedge consolidation. Sure enough, the price breakthrough ushered in a wave of accelerated rise. There is no pursuit of long prices. After the price rises, there will be a drop and then it will rise again. The price did not lose the key price of $2323 mentioned in the morning, so it will continue to rise. The price continued to rise in the second half of the period, and the hourly chart bulls rose in large volume. It is very certain that at present, under the premise of the bullish trend of the daily line in the medium term, the short-term price has left the line area. The next step is to pay attention to where this wave of bulls will rise! But for us, we only need to pay attention to the structure of the one-hour pattern. Only when the top pattern appears at the one-hour level in the future market can the end of this round of gains be established! On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is recommended to be mainly short-selling on rebounds, supplemented by long-selling on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2365-2367 line resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2323-2326 line support.
