Xauusdupdates
Key Resistance at 2630 Ahead of FOMC MinutesMarket Review and Outlook:
As anticipated in my previous post, gold has been trading within a range, primarily between the 2600 and 2630 levels. Although there was a brief breakout above 2630, the price ultimately formed a long upper wick on the daily candle, indicating strong resistance at this level. This reinforces the idea that 2630 remains a crucial resistance zone for the short term.
With the release of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes in about an hour, we can expect the potential for gold to find a new directional bias. From my perspective, the expectations for further rate cuts have diminished significantly, and the overall outlook for the U.S. economy remains relatively stable. With a new president in office, it is unlikely that the U.S. economy will face significant challenges in the near term. Therefore, there is a high probability that the minutes could turn out to be bearish for gold.
Trading Strategy:
Given the current market conditions and the upcoming event, my recommendation is to continue focusing on shorting gold:
Short Position: If gold rises above 2630 again, consider shorting.
Resistance Target: Watch for further downside if 2630 holds as resistance.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always ensure strict risk management and avoid excessive leverage when trading.
Gold Rebound as Expected: Target Achieved, Future OutlookGold has rebounded as expected to 2640, and your patience has paid off with excellent profits. Based on the current price movement, if the 2625 support holds strong, approaching 2650 or even breaking above it shouldn't pose much difficulty. Stay attentive and manage your trades accordingly!
Recovery Strategy for Long/Short PositionsAre You Stuck in a Long Position and Thinking of Cutting Losses? Or Has Your Account Been Blown and You Want to Recover?
From my personal perspective:
If you're stuck in a long position and considering cutting losses: I suggest you hold on for a bit longer. Gold is currently in a short-term bottoming process. If you close your position now and prices go up, you will likely regret it. Trading with regret can lead to emotional decisions, and you might make the same mistake again. Patience could bring unexpected gains.
If your account has taken a hit and you're looking to recover: I suggest preparing more funds to continue buying. A rebound is inevitable, and 2640 is almost guaranteed to be reached. My target is around 2650, though it may change depending on market developments. But 2640 is a solid expectation.
If you entered short positions during the recent decline and got caught: You can open a long position to recover while waiting for a rebound. Once the price reaches 2640, you can close the long position and decide whether to add shorts again based on market conditions.
This is my advice, and I hope it helps you make a better decision moving forward.
Gold in a Holding Pattern: Awaiting FOMC Minutes for DirectionMarket Review and Outlook:
Since yesterday’s sharp decline, gold has found strong support around the 2600 level, with resistance capping the price below 2630. As a result, gold is expected to remain within the 2600-2630 range today, with limited movement outside of this zone.
The main reason for this confined price action is the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes tomorrow. The market anticipates that these minutes could provide key insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy, which will likely guide gold’s next directional move. Given this, it’s unlikely that gold will experience significant volatility today ahead of the announcement.
Today's Trading Strategy:
Buy Opportunity: If gold drops near the 2610 level, consider going long.
Sell Opportunity: Look for shorting opportunities if the price approaches 2630.
Target Range: Expect gold to oscillate between 2600 and 2630 today.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please ensure that risk management protocols are followed and avoid overleveraging your positions.
Gold Analysis: Navigating the Wild Swings in XAUUSDNot long ago, I used to discuss potential targets of 1,000 pips for OANDA:XAUUSD in my analyses, explaining why trading XAUUSD requires factoring in potential moves of 300–400 pips as part of a well-thought-out strategy, not 30-50 pips.
Fast forward to today, and the landscape has shifted dramatically. A 500-pip movement in a single day has become standard, while 600–800 pips—or even the occasional 1,000—are no longer rare occurrences.
But let’s set aside the preamble and dive straight into what we might expect from gold in the near future.
In my analysis yesterday, I suggested that a lower high, relative to the previous all-time high, might be forming. This led to the idea that selling into rallies after the normal correction of the Asian session drop could be a viable strategy, with an initial target around the 2650 level.
True to its newfound roller-coaster nature, gold once again surprised us by plunging far deeper than anticipated, hitting a low around the 2605 support zone. As outlined in the previous analysis, the short-term trend has now probably shifted to bearish, and a further decline towards the 2520 support level is not out of the question.
Key Levels and Trading Strategy
- Sell Rallies: Potential selling opportunities could emerge on rallies near 2640, with a stronger resistance level at 2660 providing an additional entry point.
- Interim Support: The 2590 zone could serve as a short-term target, while an extension towards the 2520 level presents an attractive setup for a swing trade.
Given the current market conditions and gold’s remarkable volatility, these levels are merely guidelines. In such an environment, adaptability and careful risk management are critical for navigating the market successfully.
Keep in mind, anything can happen in these market conditions—stay prepared!
Gold Next Move 2492! read caption OANDA:XAUUSD is trading in parallel channel from last 2 months in H4, as you can see in chart gold is fully bearish till 2565 , all chart patterns bearish, fundamentally also bearish, gold can give possible move of 2561 if gold break it down and continue its trend then we can also see 2492 in gold. we will look good buying opportunity in gold from 2492 for now gold is sell. always use proper stop loss with fund management. all the best traders follow me and share my idea to your friends and family
XAU/USD 26 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
GOLD | TRUMP EFFECTSome of the investors, who felt that money would enter the markets with the arrival of Trump, transferred their money from gold to riskier assets.
This has worked well for now, but diamond hands will still continue to buy gold. I also see in the book a scenario in which both asset classes may rise in the long run.
I think it makes sense to be involved as a buyer in the blue and green boxes, especially it would be wise to wait for the green box.
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Gold’s Volatile Ride: What’s Next for the Medium-Term Trend?Gold has been experiencing unusual price movements and heightened volatility over the past two weeks.
Two weeks ago, the price saw an initial drop of 1500 pips. However, last week, it staged a sharp recovery, rallying almost uninterrupted—ignoring resistance levels—and closed the week strongly bullish at 2720.
As if that weren’t enough, the start of this week brought a sudden drop of 600 pips within just a few hours of the market opening.
This raises the critical question: What is Gold’s medium-term trend?
In my view, despite last week’s strong rally, the medium-term trend for Gold has shifted to bearish. Last week’s high might represent a lower high compared to the all-time high.
I plan to look for selling opportunities around 2700 and slightly higher, targeting the 2650 support level as an initial objective.
Gold Under Pressure: Stay Bearish as Trend ContinuesMarket Review and Outlook:
Dear traders, today’s shorting strategy around 2688 has likely provided profits for those who followed the signal—congratulations to those who seized this opportunity! For those who missed it, don’t worry; there are still plenty of chances ahead as the market continues to offer ample trading opportunities.
The sharp decline in gold prices recently has been driven by expectations of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has significantly reduced safe-haven demand. This, coupled with a drop in geopolitical tensions, has caused gold to remain under pressure. While some traders may consider going long at current levels in anticipation of a rebound, I must emphasize that trading is not gambling. The key to success lies in aligning with the prevailing trend to minimize unnecessary risks.
From both a fundamental and technical perspective, a reversal in gold prices appears unlikely in the short term. Bearish sentiment remains strong, and the trend is firmly in favor of the bears. Therefore, a short-biased trading approach should continue to dominate under the current market conditions.
Today's Trading Strategy:
Gold has formed a significant short-term resistance level around 2640. If the market experiences a slight rebound, this will offer another opportunity to enter short positions. The upside potential is limited, while the downside has substantial room to move.
Recommendation: Look to short again around 2640 during any brief upticks.
Risk-to-Reward: The downside potential remains strong, while the upside is limited.
Advisory Note:
The broader trend is clear, and for those unsure how to navigate the market, feel free to reach out for assistance. Recent VIP strategies have shown solid performance, but as these are based on trend analysis and not precise trading signals, some users may have misunderstood the approach, resulting in losses or trapped positions. If you find yourself in such a situation, please contact me for help.
For those considering joining our VIP service, now is a great time to apply for a free trial to gain a clearer understanding of the value we offer. Feel free to reach out for more information!
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always use sound risk management practices and avoid overleveraging in your trades.
Let me know if you'd like to further refine or adjust any details!
Fibo extension xauusdscenario 1: Watch the 2611 - 2615 area if there is a rejection in the area, gold will be pulled up at least 250 pips.
scenario 2: sell if it has entered the liquidity block / fibo 0.5 (2657)
scenario 3: buy sell breakdown / breakout if above 2639 and 2625 (scalping)
Technical used: (basepinbar) follow the trend, fibo extension, auto fibo H1.
prioritize direct execution over pending orders.
Risk aversion fades, trend turns to sellGold risk aversion has been alleviated, and gold has broken down directly. The bullish trend of gold has been temporarily alleviated. After the decline of gold, the bulls have no strong counterattack. It is difficult for gold bulls to make great achievements for the time being. Gold rebounds and continues to be short.
Gold broke down with the relief of risk aversion, and then the 1-hour moving average of gold began to turn around. The strength of the gold bullish rise has weakened. The resistance of the gold moving average has now moved down to 2683. Gold rebounded to 2683 in the US market and was shorted at highs. It can be shorted near the rebound of 2680.
SELL: 2680-2683
Safe-Haven Demand Eases, Bears Take Control in the Gold MarketFundamental Analysis:
Gold prices have reversed last week’s upward momentum as safe-haven sentiment continues to diminish. Positive developments in the Middle East have contributed to this shift, with Israel’s ambassador to the United States confirming that a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah could be reached within days. This news has triggered a significant retreat in safe-haven buying.
Meanwhile, the nomination of Scott Bassett as Treasury Secretary by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has bolstered market stability, further improving risk appetite. Although U.S. Treasury yields have declined—a factor typically supportive of gold prices—the broader improvement in market sentiment has left gold under pressure. With bearish sentiment prevailing from the week’s outset, the gold market is now dominated by a clear downward trend.
Technical Analysis:
Gold prices have experienced a sharp pullback, with immediate support found near 2660. Key resistance is identified at the 2690 level, with the short-term ceiling at 2700. The technical outlook remains bearish, with limited prospects for a near-term reversal.
Trading Strategy for Today:
Recommendation: Enter short positions in the 2688-2691 range, with a stop loss above 2700.
Target Levels: First target at 2675, followed by 2665 for further downside potential.
Advisory Note:
While VIP strategies have performed well recently, some users may experience losses or trapped positions due to a lack of understanding of trend-based analyses. If you are facing such challenges, feel free to reach out for personalized assistance. For those considering joining the VIP program, a complimentary trial session is available to help you better understand the value of our services. Interested parties are encouraged to contact me directly.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your risk carefully and avoid overleveraging.
Will the rise in gold prices continue? Latest trading strategiesGold risk aversion eased on Monday, and gold broke down directly. The bullish trend of gold was temporarily eased. After the decline of gold, the bulls did not have a strong counterattack. It is difficult for the bulls to make a big move for the time being. Gold rebounded and continued to be short. Gold broke down with the easing of risk aversion, and then the hourly moving average of gold began to turn around. The strength of the bullish rise of gold weakened. The resistance of the gold moving average now moved down to the 2685-90 line. Gold rebounded in the US market and went short at highs below the 2685-90 line.
Judging from the current 4-hour analysis chart, the upper side focuses on the short-term suppression of 2785-90, and the lower side focuses on the short-term support of 2658-60.
Gold Price Outlook: Key Insights for Next Weeks Trading DecisionGold just had its best week in recent times! This video analyzes the key factors driving the price surge – including geopolitical events and the latest US economic data.
As Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive demand, this video illustrates my trading idea. Join me as I analyze Gold’s price action, identify critical levels, and share actionable insights for the coming week. Let me know yours!
#gold #goldinvesting #marketanalysis #usdata #pmi #consumersentiment #inflation #fed #tradingstrategy #forex
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAU/USD 25 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation analysis dated 22 November 2024 played out as price successfully printed a bullish iBOS in-line with bullish internal structure, however, price has now printed a bearish iBOS in-line with H4 TF undergoing a bearish pullback phase.
Price has yet to print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is crucial to establishing an internal range and indicating the initiation of bullish pullback phase. CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high.
Alternative Scenario:
H4 Timeframe has indicated bearish pullback phase initiation by printing a bearish CHoCH, therefore, bearish momentum on M15 may be limited.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant for potential whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
xauusd Sell XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar)
Timeframe: 1-Day (D1)
The market has created a Change of Character (CHoCH) in a bearish direction, indicating selling pressure. Currently, the price is retracing toward a significant Order Block (OB) near $2,720. If the price reacts at this level, there is a high probability of a bearish continuation, offering potential selling opportunities.