Xauusd after a series of important news from the FedYesterday's news announced to us
First, the ppi decrease combined with the unemployment benefits application index increased. Combined with a decrease in CPI, this is beneficial for Gold to increase because the economic situation seems to be weakening, putting pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates. However, Nonfarm data, specifically the employment index, has increased sharply in the recent period, which is the motivation for the Fed to keep the current interest rate at 5.9%. This is the reason why PPI news, although beneficial for Gold, cannot last long.
Look at H1
- We are having the idea of an abc correction model. In which we expect wave c to complete
- In front of us we have 2 important price zones: 2307 and 2287, these are 2 price zones that help us determine the direction of the price.
- If the price breaks out at 2307, this is a necessary condition for the orange wave c to complete. Then we have 2 target price zones of wave c: 2350.4 and 2364.6. These are 2 areas where we can look for Sell orders
- If the price breaks out below 2287, this is a necessary condition for the price to fall to the target zone of wave 5, which is 2264. This is the area where we look for a Buy order.
Xauusdwave
XAUUSD June 13, 2024 After news of CPI and Fed interest rates
Yesterday we had the Fed's announcement about the CPI index, we saw that this index was 0.3 to 0.4 lower than the previous period. This is the result when the Fed implemented tightening monetary policy in the past.
After that, the FOMC meeting announced that interest rates would continue to remain at 5.5%.
- This made gold yesterday, after the announcement of CPI increased to 2340, then the news that interest rates remained high at 5.5% continued to push gold prices down.
Look at the H1 chart
- Yesterday's pullback to the 2340 price range reached the 50% Fibo level, which is a level that has surpassed the usual 38% level of wave 4. This suggests to us a more complex wave model
- For now, at this position, we observe the price zones to confirm the formation model, which are the price zone 2307 and the price zone 2287.
- If the price holds above the 2307 area, then we will have wave 5 formed at the 2287 area, meaning wave C during the ABC correction looks like D1 has completed. Then we have wave C higher than bottom B. Looking at D1, we see that a new complex correction model can form (I will update later).
- If the price breaks through the 2287 area, we have wave 5 targets as on the chart we mentioned before.
XAUUSD June 12, 2024 everyone waiting for the CPI roundLast week we had strong market fluctuations
- Looking from the US economic perspective, we see that with the economic indicators announced last week, we see a number of important issues.
- ISM PMI index, which is an index measuring the development of the industry, is lower than 50 standard units of this index, signaling that the industry is slowing down.
- The unemployment rate and the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, showing that the economic situation is slowing down
With bad economic signals, the main reason is due to high interest rates, which reduces the cash flow in the US economy, causing a lack of capital for economic development.
However, on Friday when the Nonfarm index was released, we saw a sharp increase in the job change rate, which could be the medicine to help the Fed maintain high interest rates for a while longer.
Curbing inflation to 2% will come at the cost of economic stagnation, so today's CPI will help us have a clearer view of the decision to cut interest rates in the near future. .
From an analytical perspective according to Elliot
- After forming the abc wave structure (black), the price does not decrease according to the previous trend but forms a structure running in a triangle wedge. This brings us to a complex adjustment model abcde
- Looking at the complex correction model, it is difficult to specifically identify each wave. We can only recognize when the model is complete
- This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the lower boundary of the triangle. We will wait for this Breakout to enter a sell order.
- In case the price breaks out to the upper edge, this correction model is no longer correct when measuring, we must confirm the price model at that time.
After wave 4 completes, the price continues to follow the previous downtrend to complete wave 5
- We have wave 5 targets at 2 price zones 2264 and 2229.
- We can find buy points in these areas.
Deekop's analysis is free from any personal bias intended to serve everyone. I can't always be right - no one can. But my analyzes reflect Deekop's meticulous assessment of the market situation in the medium and long term and nothing more to help people have the best trading plan.
XAUUSD June 10, 2024 Opportunity after a sharp decline?Last week we saw a sharp decline on Friday due to news that China stopped buying gold reserves and the Nonfarm index was good for the USD.
Seen from Elliot's perspective
- We have wave 4 completed at the price range of 2386, then wave 5 continues to move in a downtrend.
- We see a sharp move of wave 5 so this is likely wave 3 within wave 5 (Wave 5 inside it is a small 5 wave structure 1 2 3 4 5)
- So in order for wave 5 to complete, we need a correction of wave 4 in the big wave 5
- We have 2 adjustment targets: 2 price zones 2309 and 2321
- After completing the correction wave, the price will continue to decrease to complete wave 5
- We have wave 5 targets of 2 areas 2264 and 2229
- For now, looking at the H4 momentum indicator, it is in the oversold area, so the immediate selling force has temporarily weakened. It is possible that the next adjustment will be to the target areas above.
- We will observe the important price zones above to look for transactions
Deekop's analysis is free from any personal bias intended to serve everyone. I can't always be right - no one can. But my analyzes reflect Deekop's meticulous assessment of the market situation in the medium and long term and nothing more to help people have the best trading plan.
XAUUSD June 11, 2024 waiting for an opportunity to buy up?This week we have important news: CPI news. Last week's Nofarm newsletter provided indicators that allow the Fed to continue maintaining monetary policy as rising employment data gives the Fed confidence that people can still withstand tightening monetary policy.
But with other recent data, the US economy is clearly being adversely affected by the Fed's monetary policy.
On Wednesday, CPI news will be released and will clearly show us the Fed's trend in the near future. When the forecasted indicators are very positive for the Fed's work to control inflation. If the news is announced as expected, it could be a signal for the Fed to loosen its monetary policy.
Looking at H4, we see the recovery after the sharp decline last week, signaling that wave 4 is forming.
- Looking at the corrective wave structure, we see that there have been 3 corrective waves a b c and the current position of wave c has also reached the target area that we predicted the day before.
- It is possible that wave C in the corrective structure or wave 4 as shown on the chart has now formed and we expect wave 5 to continue the downtrend.
- Looking at the momentum of the H4 frame, we see that the H4 momentum has reversed to decrease in the overbought area, this reinforces the upcoming decline.
- We measure the end target of wave 5 ending at 2 price target areas: area 2264 and area 2229.
In the immediate future, we can look for sell down orders
When the price continues to target wave 5, which is 2264 or 2229, we look for buy orders.
Deekop's analysis is free from any personal bias intended to serve everyone. I can't always be right - no one can. But my analyzes reflect Deekop's meticulous assessment of the market situation in the medium and long term and nothing more to help people have the best trading plan.
XAUUSD June 7, 2024 before important Non Farm newsToday we will have information about the Non Farm index published. From Non Farm ADP data
US ADP employment rose 152,000 in May, less than the gain in April. It was below market expectations and hit a three-month low. Additionally, April data has been revised downward.
Employment in the goods-producing sector increased by just 3,000, down significantly from 47,000 the previous month. The services sector increased by 149,000 jobs, of which 55,000 came from trade, logistics and utilities, but the number of jobs in the information industry continued to decrease by 7,000.
We realize that the US labor market is weakening, because ADP is the index used to predict official Nonfarm, so today's index will be very important for the upcoming gold trend.
Many indicators published during this time signaled that the US economy was weakening due to the impact of the FED's tightening monetary policy to reduce inflation. This will be one of the important conditions for the Fed to loosen monetary policy in the coming time.
Looking at H1 we see that a small wave 1 2 3 4 5 is about to complete.
Wave 3 target has been completed and currently the price is completing waves 4 and 5.
- We measure the target of wave 5 at the price range of 2390 and 2413
- After the price completes wave 5, the next wave will be the abc correction
- We will monitor Take Profit with purchased transactions at the price range we have previously given such as area 2317 and area 2354.
- Short-term sell orders can be initiated at this target price range of 2390 or 2413.
Deekop's analysis is free from any personal bias intended to serve everyone. I can't always be right - no one can. But my analyzes reflect Deekop's meticulous assessment of the market situation in the medium and long term and nothing more to help people have the best trading plan.
XAUUSD May 22, 2024 Is the current correction over?Hello everyone, DEEKOP is ready to bring the most accurate signals and assessments to everyone.
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Yesterday there were many statements from members of the Fed
1. Fed's Jefferson says it's too early to know whether deflation will last.
2. Fed's Mester says economic conditions do not support three rate cuts.
3. Fed's Bostic expects only one rate cut this year.
The main content is to maintain the increase in interest rates. This information continues to support the current adjustment period
Looking at the H1 chart we see
- The current correction process is likely to be an abcde triangle correction wave model.
- This process is likely entering the final stage of the correction. Looking at the price model, we wait for wave e to form to end the correction.
- The correction process is confirmed to be completed when the price breaks through the peak of wave d (2433.8), then the price continues to increase to the target of 2500
Trading plan
If price stays above 2406 we have a good buying zone at 2408
If the price breaks down to 2406 we have a good buying zone at 2401
Note: Sufficient TP, SL to be safe and win the market‼ ️Change data plan will be updated later.
Deekop's analysis is only a personal opinion with a desire to share its views with the community. I'm not always right. But my analysis always reflects my meticulous evaluation of what is best for an investment.
Gold fell and broke through, continue to be bearish on gold
After gold rebounded and came under pressure at 2350 resistance, it fell directly, and then fell below a new low. Gold broke through and fell, and short-term bulls were weak.
The 30-minute moving average of gold has formed a dead cross downward short position. The 30-minute gold has formed a downward trend. It has rebounded weakly along the downward trend line. Now the resistance of the downward trend line is just around 2341.
26/3. Risk aversion has cooled, will gold fall sharply?
News: The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution clearly calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages.
Demands an immediate ceasefire during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which ends in two weeks, and the release of all hostages held by Hamas in an attack on southern Israel on October 7 last year.
The deadline ends on April 9
Gold has retreated due to the impact of geopolitics. The lowest level reached 2167.
After the start of the Asian session, gold prices continued to impact upward. This proves that the bullish trend in the market is still relatively strong. Currently located at the 2172 line. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar fluctuated and fell from highs. The largest hedge funds may also abandon the United States and invest in Europe. It has also been pointed out that the US dollar is overvalued. The U.S. dollar index is currently above 104. Although the short-term ceasefire in Gaza has reduced risk aversion for gold. Not conducive to rising gold prices. But the overvaluation of the U.S. dollar is undoubtedly a support for gold.
Technically, gold has shown a bullish trend. Although there is no news boost, technical support is still strong. Observe the 2165-2162 line below. If the upper position stabilizes at 2175, then the probability of rising to above 2183 is very high. Of course, this also requires the U.S. dollar to take advantage of the trend.
In terms of trading, buying low is still the main trend today. The entire transaction is based on actual conditions.
2169-2166 buy
TP2177-2183
SL2159
Transactions are for reference only. If you have any questions please leave me a message. Like following live trading signals. Remember to stay tuned.
Fed economic data flow chartThe private intake expenditures (PCE) fee index, which the Fed makes use of to set its 2% inflation target, rose at a 2.5% annual price in February, up from 2.4% visible in January. Core inflation, which strips out risky meals and electricity prices, rose 2.8%, down barely from a revised 2.9% boom in January. Neither parent is possibly to reinforce growth. boosted Fed policymakers` self belief that inflation will steadily go back to their target.
The customer fee index (CPI) rose 3.2% yr-on-yr in February, up from 3.1% the preceding month and better than analysts expected. Meanwhile, the benchmark hobby price with the exception of meals and electricity fees best fell to 3.8% from 3.9%, some other reminder that the Fed's inflation strugglefare ought to closing longer than expected. guess. Rising fuel and housing fees contributed in large part to the boom in CPI. Whether the Fed's hopes of constantly lowering housing fees is forthcoming stays uncertain.
Profited 17K from short gold, and continue to short goldToday’s gold trading situation is as follows:
1.Xauusd: @2256-2258 Sell, SL:2266, profit and loss: -4000
2.Xauusd: @2263-2265 Sell, TP:2255 Profit and loss: +5532
3.Xauusd: @2273-2275 Sell, TP:2255 Profit and loss: +7184
4.Xauusd: @2276-2278 Sell, TP:2255 Profit and loss: +8520
In gold trading today, although one of them touched SL: 2266 resulting in a loss of 4K, overall, I achieved a good result of 17K profit in today's gold trading. If you follow my trading strategy, I believe you will also make very good profits.
At present, gold has reached its highest level near 2277 as expected, but then fell back to around 2251, giving up all the gains. According to the current gold structure, this position is expected to become a phased peak. Therefore, in our next trading rhythm, it is best not to aggressively pursue long gold above 2260. Secondly, in the 2270-2280 area, we can choose to short gold on highs in batches. I predict that gold will fall to the 2250-2245 area in the short term, maybe even tomorrow.
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