XAU BEAR SWINGJust as I published previously, xau has gone for a retest at the R1 and R2 zones indicated in the analysis. We still have the R3 zone for a mitigation and if we break through the R3 zone we head straight down to the 2013 zone where a retracement is expected back up to the R3 zone before a continued bearish swing
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Xauuusd
XAUUSD:Sellers take control after strong economic data in the USGold regained momentum and climbed to its highest since early January above $2,060 before falling sharply on Friday.
Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could influence precious metals pricing next week in the absence of much key economic data.
Gold increased more than 0.5% on Monday, benefiting from escalating geopolitical tensions and falling US government bond interest rates from the beginning of the week. News of a drone attack on a US base near Jordan's border with Syria that killed three people and injured more than 20 soldiers has raised concerns about the growing crisis in the country. Middle East.
On Wednesday, the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.5% as expected. In its policy announcement, the Fed completely ruled out the possibility of additional tightening and only talked about monitoring more data to evaluate the next move.
This has put the USD under downward pressure and helped XAU/USD move higher. However, in the following press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the bank would not consider cutting interest rates at the March meeting. After this comment, Wall Street's main indexes fell sharply. and help the USD regain its strength. Powell also said they could cut interest rates sooner if they see unexpected weakness in the labor market.
After the Fed meeting, US government bond yields fell sharply in the US session on Thursday and pushed gold higher. The 10-year US government bond yield fell more than 2% to below 3.9% while XAU/USD increased above $2,060. The US Department of Labor said there were 224,000 initial applications for unemployment benefits, higher than market expectations of 212,000. In addition, ISM's Manufacturing PMI index improved from 47.1 to 49.1, with the Employment index decreasing from 47.5 to 47.1.
On Friday, Gold fell sharply and reversed most of the gains following the January jobs report. NFP data increased by 353,000, well above market expectations of 180,000. Additionally, annual wage inflation has increased to 4.5%. The 10-year US government bond yield later recovered to 4% and XAU/USD dropped below $2,030.
ISM will release the January Services PMI report on Monday with an expected increase from 50.6 to 52.0 in December. The Employment Index fell sharply from 50.7 in November to 43.3 in December, indicating that the sector's payrolls The service sector is declining. This decline could pressure the dollar, while a recovery to 50 or above could boost the greenback.
The economic calendar next week does not have many important events for Gold traders. Instead, traders will focus on statements from Fed officials.
Although Powell has essentially ruled out a rate cut in March, the FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in a 20% probability of a bank pivot at the next meeting. The USD is likely to appreciate in case Fed officials continue to reject this expectation. On the other hand, XAU/USD could regain traction if policymakers leave open the possibility of cutting interest rates next month. However, that is unlikely to happen after the impressive jobs report.
XAUUSD : US inflation report will boost market trendWhile the US central bank turned more cautious at its December meeting, markets ignored this and overpriced a cut for a still resilient economy. strengthening and inflation remains high.
To better understand the Fed's next moves, traders should keep an eye on the US economic calendar this week, paying particular attention to the December CPI report on Thursday morning.
Although core inflation is expected to have cooled last month, headline inflation is seen recovering, rising from 3.1% to 3.2%, which is not good for policymakers and certainly will negatively impact market psychology.
For gold prices to regain upward momentum in the near future, the latest US CPI data needs to show signs that prices are gradually stabilizing. Otherwise, the Fed may continue to delay its interest rate reduction cycle.
In the event of an unexpected increase in inflation reports, the market may raise the valuation of interest rate increases, causing government bond yields to skyrocket. Gold could experience stronger downward corrections in the coming days and weeks.
Gold continued to decline on Tuesday after slipping below the key support zone at $2,050 - $2,045 last week. Sustaining prices below this zone could reinforce bearish pressure, pushing gold to its 50-day SMA near $2,010, then to $1,990.
On the other hand, if the buyers return, resistance will appear at $2,045-$2,050. A break above this level could push the price to $2,085, and then to its highest peak on record.
XAUUSD : How will gold fluctuate in 2024 ?Gold has had wild swings in 2023, rising about 15% from the beginning of the year to May, then falling 13% in October before rising nearly 19% to create a record high in early December. Currently, there are many factors that may affect and cause gold prices to continue to increase in Q1, 2024.
Weakness of the USD
Gold has an inverse relationship with US government bond yields as well as the US dollar. Therefore, when interest rates fall and the dollar weakens, precious metals often increase in price as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.
Although the Fed has not yet ruled out another rate hike, the market has already decided that interest rates will fall next year. This is shown by the sharp decrease in government bond yields and the USD. Therefore, even in the absence of fresh bullish momentum, the USD downtrend should still keep XAU/USD supported.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for gold's price increase is still quite complicated after gold increased sharply at the end of the year, making the current Risk-Reward ratio not too impressive.
Therefore, gold is likely to correct slightly before continuing its current bullish structure, with the first level of support located around the $2,010 area, beyond that at the $1,956 threshold.
On the upside, current resistance levels lie at $2,075 and if bullish momentum increases gold prices could return to the record high of $2,146.79.
GOLD WEEKLY UPDATESPrevious Idea has 2 scenarios, price moves toward 40% retracement since the momentum from 1810$.
Now price might consolidating to move higher or it will not react the 40% retracement.
Where do you think price reacts? the golden 50 or institutional 78?
My view base only on 40%.
if price no reactions on that zone then we might see price goes lower than the monthly lows of 1810.
This is not a financial advice.
Follow for more.
Trade at your own peril.
Now my ideas has 2 scenarios so that you have your own opinions and trade at your own.
Gold 🥇 is this the to sell ???Gold is moving in small triangle pattern and is on resistance zone so it still have a potential to go down from its zone or upper tredline..........so trade carefully and match your analysis with this chart too..........
If you fine this chart is useful so follow my page.....
GOLD/XAUUSD UPDATESWere watching the last pump on this Gold.
im waiting on 40% retracement atleast 1930,
price keep retracing above to take out the short sellers.
Now or this week maybe we might see a squeeze on Longs/Buyers.
THis is not a financial advice follow for more.
For daily updates and trades come and check me out.
Trade at your own risk.
All ideas are my thoughts and how I watch market.
Gold opportunity On NFPGold is waiting for NFP to come as its consolidating under 1931 to 1820 level and we can see a potential to either side but possibly gold will fall to 1800 level that all buy orders will be settled under 1820 level and to run the market , market makers need the money and they will try hit SL of maximum traders under these levels so we will be seeing a potential downwards move that gold is not in any clear direction
We will consider gold on bullish side when it will break above 1931 level and put our order other wise our confluance is all set for sell
That the price is hovering under these levels the 2nd confluence is price is trading under 200EMA and no sign of revesal
XAUUSD SHORT SCALP!Hey Traders,
Here we are again with new trade on GOLD,
we expect some move like this, then price can move can have a correction just after, so lets see and wait for one more confirmation in lower time frame, then jump in trade,
I am telling you this trade is counter trend and high risk, so personally I take half risk,
Any question comment me bellow,
@FxShzd
Today's XAUUSD Idea: Hope Again: Gold Will Be BearishDear MsProTrading Members,
Today we will analyze whether gold will drop to 1912–10. First of all, you can get the current price of 1919. We think there may have been a little gold drop in 1916–17 and hope it goes up again in 1926–28. If resistance does not break, we will go back to our final target of 1912–10. otherwise Sell Zone 1934–36
XAUUSD: Do Not Miss Out on this great opportunity!Dear Traders,
Hope all of you having a great week, OANDA:XAUUSD , previous setup on GOLD hit the targeted profit easily, now that we have strong bullish price movement we think price will reach our targeted zone with ease too. Remember today is FRIDAY so we may expect some market fluctuations due to low volume.
Please like our idea and comment your views it will be easy for people to have a different bias.
GOLD/ XAUUSD LONG/ BUY🔰 Pair Name: GOLD/XAUUSD
🔰 Time Frame: 1H/4H
🔰 Scale Type: SMALL Scale
🔰 Direction: LONG/BUY
📈 Analysis Update - Gold Forecast 📉
🔍 Current Status: Gold has successfully reached the critical daily Fibonacci level of 61.8%. From a technical perspective, we are anticipating an imminent retest scenario.
🔮 Projection: The forecast suggests that a retracement is in the cards, with a potential target zone spanning between 1944 and 1951. This retracement is primarily driven by the need to absorb the liquidity that was generated in the market yesterday, thereby realigning the market balance.
📊 Strategy: Traders are advised to closely monitor the price action within the projected range and assess the strength of the retracement. This period could offer an opportunity to capitalize on short-term moves.
As always, remember to manage risk effectively and stay attuned to the evolving market dynamics. Happy trading! 📈📊📉
📈XAUUSD analyis, The first day of the week📉OANDA:XAUUSD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Gold analytical series, Episode 25
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
targets are on the chart.
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✍🐱👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱👤✍
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CrazyS✌
XAUUSD 240 MINS CHART The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy