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GOLD heads for all-time record levelsOANDA:XAUUSD held steady near record highs on Thursday (Jan. 23) as investors awaited further guidance from the new Trump administration on trade policies and potential tax cuts. Gold prices remain near their highest levels since last October as investors consider the impact that President Trump's latest tariff threats against China and the European Union could have on with the global economy. OANDA:XAUUSD currently trading at nearly $2,752, $40 below its all-time high and up about 2% in the week to date. Gold was supported by safe-haven demand as investors weighed the new administration's stance on trade. US President Donald Trump has named China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico as potential import tariff targets, although there remains uncertainty about whether he will do so. Trump said he is considering imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China starting February 1. He also promised to impose tariffs on imports from Europe but did not provide further details. He had previously said that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs of around 25% on February 1. The Federal Reserve will meet next week as economic growth continues and inflation declines but faces uncertainty from the new administration's policies. The central bank is expected to leave the key interest rate unchanged at its next policy meeting on January 28-29. High interest rates reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold, but with the current market context, the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is not a potential pressure for gold to adjust significantly. European Central Bank policymakers unanimously backed further interest rate cuts on Wednesday, signaling that a rate cut next week is almost a foregone conclusion. will be implemented even as the Federal Reserve remains cautious. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected very slightly but now it has all the conditions for expectations to reach an all-time high. The main uptrend is reinforced by the break above the green price channel combined with price activity above the $2,750 level noticed by readers in yesterday's edition, along with that the Strength Index Relative RSI also shows that there is still room for price growth ahead. Currently, the upside momentum is being blocked by the $2,762 technical level and once this level is broken gold could continue to rise with a subsequent target at the all-time high of $2,790. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, and above the green price channel, it remains bullish in the short to medium term and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,750 – 2,730 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,762 – 2,790USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 →Take Profit 1 2769 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2764 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2720 - 2722⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2716 →Take Profit 1 2727 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2732
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Approaching 2,750 USD, the prospect of a new bull cycleInfluenced by Trump's tariff threats, investors flocked to the safe-haven asset gold. Gold prices soared to their highest level in more than two months. As of the time of writing, spot gold was trading at 2,749 USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.17% on the day and close to the target level of 2,750 USD. US President Trump said he is considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada: "I think we will do this on February 1." According to Reuters, Trump confirmed that general tariffs on all US imports are also being considered and will be implemented at a later stage. During Trump's election campaign, he proposed a "comprehensive tariff" of 10% to 20% on all imported goods. Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on the continent soon, saying he would "resolve the deficit with the EU by imposing tariffs or asking the EU to buy our oil and gas". Trump's sweeping trade tariffs are expected to spur further inflation and spark a trade war, which could increase gold's safe-haven appeal. Looking back at history in 2017, the first year of Trump's final term in the White House, gold prices rose 13%, marking the best year in seven years. In addition, the US Dollar index fell sharply from its peak on Tuesday and only recovered slightly at the beginning of today's Asian trading session Wednesday, January 22 which is also considered a favorable condition for prices. Yellow. In the Middle East, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas stalled when Israeli forces began operations in the West Bank city of Jenin. In response, Hamas called for an escalation of fighting against Israel. Gold is considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical instability, and this Middle East factor is also seen as a supportive factor for gold prices in the current context. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold achieved a target gain at $2,730 then broke out and approached the next target loss at $2,750. In the short term, if gold continues to break above $2,750 it is likely to continue its uptrend with a target that could be an all-time high. In terms of conditions, gold still has the main prospect of rising prices with the green price channel as the main trend, main support from EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index RSI showing that there is still wide room for growth in the market. front. During the day, as long as gold remains above the green price channel, it remains bullish with expectations for a new bull run once $2,750 is broken and notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,730 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,750 – 2,790USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2773 - 2771⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2777 →Take Profit 1 2766 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2761 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2710⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2704 →Take Profit 1 2715 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2720
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD skyrocketed, Trump's influence provided strong supportIn the Asian market today, Tuesday, January 21, influenced by Trump's tariff comments that stimulated risk aversion, OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly jumped to 17 USD in the short term and are currently approaching the mark of 2,725 USD/ounce. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in the Oval Office of the Capitol. US President Trump recently announced that he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada no later than February 1, possibly up to 25%, and reiterated his view that the two neighboring countries America's neighbors are allowing illegal immigration and drugs into the United States. Complaining about fentanyl and migrants crossing the northern U.S. border, Trump called Canada a “very bad abuser” and said the target date for tariffs would be “I think February 1st. " Trump made the remarks shortly after returning to the Oval Office to sign a series of executive orders. The executive orders cover everything from regulation to energy to immigration. This is an early sign that Trump has increasingly focused on trade since taking office. These comments have stimulated risk aversion in the market to increase rapidly. Not only did gold strengthen, but the safe-haven Dollar also increased strongly. Impacting the market, we can see that recently both gold and Dollar, which have a negative correlation, have increased in price together. Trump's sweeping trade tariffs are expected to spur further inflation and spark a trade war, which could increase gold's safe-haven appeal. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has approached the $2,725 level that was the initial upside target noticed by readers in the previous issue, followed by the $2,730 price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Technically, gold still has all the conditions for price increases with the trend being noticed by the green price channel, main support from EMA21 and the nearest support is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, the uptrend of the Relative Strength Index also creates an uptrend and is still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. Moving forward, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693USD Resistance: 2,725 – 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2746 - 2744⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2750 →Take Profit 1 2739 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2734 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2684 - 2686⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2680 →Take Profit 1 2691 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is supported, but watch out for TrumpIn the weekend trading session on Friday (January 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot price decreased by 12 USD due to factors such as the recovery of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities of investors, along with some pressure from important technical areas. TVC:DXY Rising prices have put pressure on gold prices, but with uncertainty over incoming President Donald Trump's policies and markets once again betting on further interest rate cuts, Gold remains in favor. Weakly tilted to the upside as prices broke above the key level of $2,700. OANDA:XAUUSD hit a new high in more than a month on Thursday, just $65.60 shy of October's all-time high of $2,790.15. Gold prices rose 0.5% this week, the third straight weekly gain, after weaker-than-expected U.S. core inflation data on Wednesday fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. capacity many times. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of this year, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying there could be further interest rate cuts if economic data weakens further. Trump's policies make the market worried The market is currently eagerly awaiting Mr. Trump's inauguration on January 20, which is expected to bring challenges to the gold market. Trump's strong rhetoric about supporting US manufacturing through trade tariffs continues to keep the US Dollar Index (Dxy) above 109 points, while also raising concerns about inflation and anxiety about a global trade war. Aggressive markets will pay close attention to tariffs and fiscal spending policies, as these policies will directly affect economic growth, fiscal deficits and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed. This week has been a pretty quiet data week. However, the event of Trump taking over the White House will be the focus, bringing expected market fluctuations that are huge fluctuations that traders need to pay special attention to. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US Presidential Inauguration, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims, Friday: S&P Flash PMI data, US Existing Home Sales Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has not yet been able to surpass the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, a position that is important resistance for a continued uptrend that readers noticed in the previous issue. Gold has also decreased and corrected since being under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci level, but in general, the downward momentum is not significant with technical conditions still tilting in favor of price increases. In the coming time, as long as gold remains in the orange price channel, above EMA21 and POC Volume Profile, it still has a bullish outlook. Meanwhile, the up trending RSI maintained its activity above the 50 level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. Once gold breaks the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it could open a new bullish cycle targeting $2,750 in the short term, more than the all-time high. The technical uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following levels. Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 20 - January 24]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, increasing from 2,656 USD/oz to 2,724 USD/oz, then decreasing and closing at 2,702 USD/oz. The main reason is due to the prediction that Donald Trump may implement his tariff commitments after his inauguration, increasing the risk of inflation in the context of the FED maintaining current interest rates. If this policy is implemented, the risk of a US-China trade war and global economic instability will increase, even leading to stagflation. These factors may continue to support gold prices to increase next week. Mr. Trump can promote expansionary fiscal policy, increasing US public debt and the risk of global financial instability, thereby strengthening gold's role as a haven. However, next week's gold price may decrease if Mr. Trump delays or delays the imposition of tariffs, although this possibility is considered very low. In the short term, gold prices may increase with the USD due to the impact of Mr. Trump's policies, instead of having a negative correlation as before. However, in the long term, if inflation increases sharply, forcing the FED to raise interest rates to curb inflation, this will put downward pressure on gold prices. Next week, in addition to Mr. Trump's inauguration, the US will also release weekly unemployment claims and S&P Flash PMI data and existing home sales... However, these economic data may will not have much impact on the gold price trend next week. 📌In terms of technical analysis, if the gold price next week surpasses the threshold of 2,725 USD/oz, it can continue to conquer the strong resistance area at 2,790 USD/oz, and the gold price next week could even exceed 2,800 USD/oz. /oz if Mr. Trump's tariff commitment comes true after his inauguration. Meanwhile, the important support level for gold price next week is at 2,650 USD/oz. (Around the moving average EMA34, 89) Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2791 - 2789⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2795 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is close to the target level of 2,730 USDIn the Asian trading session, today's weekend January 17, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a strong trend, gold price is currently around 2,716 USD/ounce, close to the previous target increase at 2,730 USD/ounce. OANDA:XAUUSD rose to a more than one-month high on Thursday as the latest U.S. economic data weighed on U.S. Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 11 increased by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000. Economists had expected 210,000 initial jobless claims last week. Slightly weaker-than-expected US core CPI data led to a sharp fall in real yields, which should support further gains in gold prices on inflation fears and repricing of taper expectations interest rate. Federal Reserve officials said data showed inflation in the US was continuing to slow, but they also noted growing uncertainty in the coming months as they wait for early policy signs. from the incoming administration of US President Donald Trump. Potential tariffs from the Trump administration could exacerbate inflationary pressures. The dollar fell, moving slightly from recent highs, as cooling US inflation data pulled bond yields down, continuing to support gold prices. And this is what we can most easily see about the alignment in these correlations in the market. Meanwhile, geopolitically, the ceasefire and hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas has weakened demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Last year, as tensions in the Middle East increased, gold hit several new highs on safe-haven demand and expectations that major central banks like the Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy further. again. But this is not enough because geopolitical factors can have a sudden impact, but they are never sustainable long-term causes. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has continued to break out, approaching the target level of 2,730 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with that, the uptrend is still dominating the daily chart, the uptrend price channel is highlighted by the green price channel, and the uptrend RSI maintains its above activity. The 50 level is still quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still wide room for price increases ahead. The main support is still at the POC Volume Profile level and the EMA21 line. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future. Currently, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level has also become the closest support currently. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,700 – 2,693USD Resistance: 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2740 →Take Profit 1 2729 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2724 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2684 - 2686⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2680 →Take Profit 1 2691 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Supported by data, GOLD skyrocketed with room to increaseDue to weaker-than-expected US core inflation data, the US Dollar TVC:DXY weakened and the market also rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not be over yet, gold prices increased sharply. Technical factors also continue the upward price structure. US inflation is lower than expected The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, slightly above the 0.3% forecast. of economists. The overall CPI inflation rate increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, in line with expectations. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.2% year-on-year, slower than November data and below economists' median estimate of 3.3%. economic survey by Dow Jones. Gold prices were supported and jumped by weaker-than-expected US core inflation data, causing US Treasury yields to fall sharply. Core CPI was slightly lower than expected. This is a positive signal for gold because the corollary is that the Fed will not necessarily rule out cutting interest rates, although the possibility of cutting interest rates in January is not high, but some rate cuts Capacity is still expected before the end of the year. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but because it earns no interest, its appeal to investors diminishes in higher interest rate environments and vice versa in low interest rate environments. Focus on key US economic data Today (Thursday), financial markets focus on US retail sales, data on initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Economists expect U.S. retail sales to rise 0.6% month-over-month in December, down from 0.7% in November. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 201,000 to 210,000 in the week ending January 11. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after ending the technical correction and receiving support from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level that readers should pay attention to in previous publications, gold has continued to increase to continue. current bullish cycle. With an active position above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level gold is likely to continue rising with a subsequent target at around $2,730 upon breaking the $2,700 base price. In the short term, gold has achieved its target increase at 2,700 USD, however, the room for price increases is still quite wide ahead with the Relative Strength Index pointing up, operating above 50 and still at quite far from the overbought level. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2672 - 2674⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2668 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers to original target, paying attention to US CPIOANDA:XAUUSD recovered strongly and is currently traded quite narrowly. US PPI data has reinforced investor confidence in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further this year. In addition, Trump's report on tariffs also affected the USD, helping push gold prices higher. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the US CPI, which is expected to cause a big swing in the markets. US PPI data and Trump's tariff report influence the USD US PPI unexpectedly came in lower than expected in December, driven by lower food costs and firm service prices, which may help ease concerns about persistent price pressure. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the U.S. PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in December, an increase less than the 3.5% expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.5% year-on-year, below expectations of 3.8%. US PPI increased 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the 0.4% increase in November and below market expectations of 0.4%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged from the previous month, missing economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase and the previous month's 0.2% increase. After the US PPI data was released, the US Dollar fell again. A weaker US Dollar makes gold more attractive. Bloomberg reports that members of US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming economic team are discussing gradually increasing taxes month by month to increase their negotiating leverage incrementally, while also helping to avoid rising inflation. mutation. One idea is to build a progressive tax schedule with monthly increases of about 2% to 5%, said people familiar with the matter. The plan would also need to rely on executive powers granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This news also affected the US Dollar, causing gold prices to recover. Pay attention to US CPI Investors are now waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday to analyze the Fed's policy direction. The US CPI is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, higher than the previous month's 2.7% increase, while the month-on-month CPI increase in the month 12 is expected to be 0.3%. . If Wednesday's US CPI report is lower than expected, it could increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will ease policy this year, which would benefit gold. And of course the opposite effect is if the data is higher than expected. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but due to its non-interest-bearing nature, a high interest rate environment weakens its investment appeal. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading very narrowly but as mentioned to readers in previous publications that gold has achieved the initial technical conditions for a possible price increase. With the short-term trend formed by the green price channel and support from EMA21, POC Volume Profile. After the previous correction, gold has also recovered from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level to reach the initial target at 2,676 USD, the next target will be around 2,693 - 2,700 USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index maintained above 50 is a positive signal for an uptrend in the near future while still quite far from the overbought area. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable points will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USD soars, GOLD corrects but conditions remain bullishAfter last week's surge, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading suddenly suffered a fierce correction and the upward momentum was limited. US bond yields soared, the US Dollar strengthened and investors' profit-taking activities affected the trend of gold. In addition, news of a ceasefire in the Middle East also negatively impacted gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD fell again as US Treasury yields rose to their highest since November 2023. The US Dollar Index surpassed 110.00 in trading on Monday, pressuring gold prices. The dollar index rose to its highest since November 2022 after the US jobs report emphasized the strength of the economy and clouded the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A rising Dollar will make gold less attractive. The latest New York Fed survey shows one-year inflation expectations at 3% and interest rate futures traders are pricing in a Fed rate cut this year of less than 25 basis points. copies, or less than once. Because gold does not generate interest, a high interest rate environment reduces its appeal to investors. A ceasefire in Gaza could take place as early as this week White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Bloomberg on Monday that the Biden administration believes a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached as early as this week. He added that there was no guarantee that all parties would agree to such a deal. In an interview with Bloomberg, Sullivan said US President Joe Biden's administration has contacted Trump's newly elected team and is looking to form a united front on this issue before the transfer of power in Washington on January 20. Previously, Britain's Reuters quoted officials familiar with the negotiation process as saying on Monday that mediators had submitted a draft "final agreement" to the warring parties on a ceasefire and the release of children. believe. Officials said that in addition to delegations from both Israel and Kazakhstan, current US President McGurk and President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff were also present at the peace talks. hosted by Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed in Doha. Reuters said the talks achieved a breakthrough after midnight on Sunday and mediators led by Qatar immediately submitted a draft ceasefire agreement to Israel and Kazakhstan. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has adjusted down significantly from the important confluence level, readers should pay attention to previous publications at the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% confluence with the upper edge of the green price channel and one side of the triangle. purple price. But the downside correction was also limited after reaching target support at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, gold is recovering from the 0.50% Fibonacci level, but first it needs to break the technical point of 2,676 USD, then the target is around 2,693 - 2,700 USD in the short term. Up to now, gold still has conditions to increase technically with supporting factors from EMA21, POC Volume Profile and the green short-term rising price channel. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index maintained its activity above 50, also quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2688 - 2686⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2692 →Take Profit 1 2681 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2676 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2651 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2656
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has bullish conditions, pay attention to inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD is accumulating upward momentum, rising to a new multi-week high above $2,680 an ounce. The technical outlook shows that gold prices have shifted to an uptrend in the near future. Next week, key economic indicators from China and the US inflation data will likely drive gold price movements. The US government on Friday released a nonfarm report showing 256,000 new jobs were created last December, far higher than the expected 160,000 and the biggest increase in nine months. The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, also the lowest with an expected value of 4.2%. Reasons for OANDA:XAUUSD The recovery after Friday's decline was due despite stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data, reducing the likelihood of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. However, the Trump administration's upcoming policies have brought uncertainty, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal. It can be quite certain that, as soon as Trump takes office, a series of major changes in US economic and foreign policy will suddenly change and gold will always benefit in an economically unstable environment. geopolitics. Gold investors will wait for US inflation data Early next week, investors will pay attention to China's December trade balance data. A significant increase in China's trade surplus could support gold prices during the Asian session next Monday. Next Wednesday, US December inflation data could trigger gold's next big move. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, but core CPI to fall 0.1% over the same period. If CPI is higher than expected, the immediate market reaction could boost the USD and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help gold maintain its position or push gold prices higher. Gold investors will wait for US inflation data Early next week, investors will pay attention to China's December trade balance data. A significant increase in China's trade surplus could support gold prices during the Asian session next Monday. Next Wednesday, US December inflation data could trigger gold's next big move. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, but core CPI to fall 0.1% over the same period. If CPI is higher than expected, the immediate market reaction could boost the USD and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help gold maintain its position or push gold prices higher. China's fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data could influence gold trends during the Asian trading session next Friday. Analysts expect China's annual GDP growth rate to reach 5.1% in the fourth quarter, higher than the 4.6% growth rate in the third quarter. A positive surprise could help gold prices edged higher, while disappointing GDP data could weigh on gold prices. Market participants will also pay attention to new developments surrounding Trump's tariff strategy. While gold benefits from risk aversion, a sharp rise in US Treasury yields could limit gold's gains. The economic calendar needs attention next week Tuesday: US PPI Wednesday: US CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Survey Thursday: US Retail Sales, Philly Federal Reserve Survey, Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: Housing construction starts and construction permits in the United States Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold has achieved conditions for a short-term uptrend although the upward momentum is being hindered by the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And once gold breaks above $2,693 it will be ripe for upside with a target of around $2,730 in the short term. In terms of support factors, the POC Volume Profile level will be the closest support, combined with the EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.618% creating a reliable support area for each correction to ensure that, as long as gold does not If it breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also pointing up from level 50, still quite far from the overbought level with a significant slope, this is a signal for room for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, an uptrend price channel has also just been formed. In the coming time, the technical outlook for gold tends to increase in price with notable levels listed as follows. Support: 2,676 – 2,664USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2715 →Take Profit 1 2704 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2699 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2663⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2657 →Take Profit 1 2668 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2673
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI highest in more than 3 weeksTVC:USOIL hit its highest level in more than three months in early trading on Monday (January 13) in Asian markets, continuing last Friday's rise on market expectations that the United States will strengthen its measures. sanctions on Russia's oil industry, which will result in Russian supplies in China and India coming under pressure; In addition, the nonfarm payrolls report also boosted market confidence in the growth of crude oil demand in some parts of the US and Europe also stimulated winter crude oil fuel demand. The Biden administration on Friday imposed the broadest package of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues, a move aimed at giving Kyiv and Trump's new team leverage to reach a peace deal in Ukraine. This move is aimed at cutting Russia's revenue to continue the war. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in Russia in February 2022, the war has caused tens of thousands of casualties and reduced many cities to rubble. Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on X that the measures announced last Friday would "deal a big blow" to Moscow. He added that "The less money Russia gets from oil... the sooner peace will be restored." US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and a stable labor market at the end of the year will boost crude oil demand. Friday's closely watched Labor Department jobs report also showed fewer long-term unemployed people in December and the average length of unemployment shortened. Increases in these indicators have previously raised concerns about a labor market downturn. December employment rose 256,000, the most since March. Data for October and November were revised to show 8,000 fewer jobs were added than previously reported. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in November. The average unemployment rate last year was 4.0% and in 2023 it will be 3.6%. In Friday's report, the government also released revisions to the past five years of seasonally adjusted household survey data, from which the unemployment rate is calculated. With last Friday's jobs data settling in, this week will see a lot of US data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. US President-elect Donald Trump's team is expected to make many comments before the inauguration ceremony on January 20. China's trade data, economic activity and GDP will also be the focus of the market in general and the Crude Oil market in particular. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL continues its uptrend after breaking through the rising price channel noticed by readers in the previous issue. And currently the upward momentum is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, once WTI crude oil breaks above this level it can continue to increase further with the target then around 82.75USD in the short term. However, the Relative Strength Index shows that the RSI is operating in the overbought area, which is a signal that there is not much room for price increases ahead, and also signals a possible downward correction. happen. However, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is currently bullish with support from the trend price channel, EMA21 and the nearest support level at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the price channel and EMA21, any price declines should only be considered short-term corrections, notable levels will also be listed as follows. Support: 76.33 – 75.20 – 74.61USD Resistance: 78.98USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 13 - January 17]Over the past week, international OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,614 USD/oz to 2,698 USD/oz and closed at 2,688 USD/oz. The main reason is concerns about rising inflation in the US due to President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary fiscal policies, tariffs and tightening immigration policies. Although high interest rates are often detrimental to gold prices, in the context of strong inflation, real interest rates decrease, creating a positive impact on gold prices. That is also the reason why the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for December 2024 increased by 256,000 jobs, far exceeding Reuters' forecast of 160,000 jobs and surpassing November's revised figure of 227,000 jobs, but gold prices still increased sharply this week. With the inauguration day (January 20, 2025) of President-elect Donald Trump approaching, it is likely that next week's gold price will still be supported. Because Mr. Trump's expected policies, especially expansionary fiscal policy, tariff policy, and immigration policy, will all have the risk of increasing inflation. In particular, although tariff policy can reduce the US trade deficit, it will push up consumer prices. Tighter immigration policies will increase labor costs, causing product prices to increase, thereby also risking increasing the consumer price index... Meanwhile, the FED has announced that it may only cut interest rates once this year, or may not even cut interest rates this year, if Mr. Trump's above-mentioned policies push US inflation to skyrocket. 📌Looking at the chart, next week's gold price will likely continue to move upward with the next important resistance levels being 2,725 - 2,790 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the level of 2,585 USD/oz is an important support level for gold prices next week. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,676 – 2,664USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2761 - 2759⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2765 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
NFP focus, GOLD is reaching initial bullish conditionsOn Asian markets on Friday (January 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains the intraday recovery trend and gold price is currently at about 2,672 USD/ounce, a range of about more than 1 dollar during the day as of the time of writing. Market participants turned their attention to the US nonfarm payrolls report. Today (Friday), the United States will release the closely watched non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to cause a big move in the gold market. Authoritative surveys show nonfarm payrolls in the United States would have increased by 160,000 last December, following a whopping 227,000 increase in November. US unemployment rate expected to fall maintained at 4.2% in December. The survey found that average hourly wages in the United States are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in December, following a 0.4% increase in November. Annual wage growth is likely maintained at 4%. Better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data is seen as positive for the dollar and vice versa. And of course, this greatly impacts the gold price trend. From a technical perspective, OANDA:XAUUSD is heading for the 4th consecutive day of increase but the real uptrend has not yet been clearly formed. However, the daily chart of gold prices has also achieved the initial technical conditions for a possible increase in price with price activity above EMA21, POC Volume Profile and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, these indicators are becoming the closest support. An important factor for the uptrend to form is the level of 2,693USD, which is considered a technical confirmation point for a newly formed uptrend. Once it is broken above and gold sustains activity above this level, the next target is around $2,730 in the short term. The relative strength index RSI has also risen above 50. However, the slope is not large but it is still considered a positive signal for gold prices in the near future. During the day, gold had initial bullish technical conditions and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,664 – 2,645 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2545 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits 4-week high, eyes on NFP and Trump inaugurationOANDA:XAUUSD hit a near four-week high, although minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting suggested it could take a more hawkish stance as inflationary pressures continue to mount. As of the time of writing, spot gold is currently trading at around 2,659.78 USD/ounce. It rose to yesterday's high of $2,670.01, its highest since December 13. It's worth noting that the previously released December private jobs report was weaker than expected, giving the market some confidence that the Federal Reserve may not be too cautious in cutting interest rates this year. . ADP's national jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 122,000 private-sector jobs last month, while economists had expected a gain of 140,000. A separate report from the Labor Department showed 201,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week, below expectations of 218,000. The more important factor is the US nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday, which is expected to change 163,000 jobs; Any data significantly higher than this number will have a negative impact on gold. Markets will now be fully focused on the US Nonfarm Payrolls Data and Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration, where they expect Trump to announce a series of policy initiatives. Minutes from the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting showed that officials expect inflation to ease this year but acknowledged the risk of continued price pressures, especially as they assess the potential impact from Trump's policy. Trump's proposed tariffs could fuel inflation in the US, complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and could pressure gold prices. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation will continue to decline in 2025 and allow the central bank to lower interest rates further, albeit at an uncertain pace. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates have reduced the appeal of this non-returning asset, and in contrast to a low interest rate environment, gold will be the top choice. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still temporarily limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, although yesterday's trading day there were times when it briefly jumped above this level. However, overall, the trend is still neutral with price movements gradually moving towards the top of the purple price triangle. However, with the current position, gold has conditions to increase in price with support from EMA21, POC Volume profile and the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. In the event that gold breaks the $2,664 level it is likely to increase further with a target then around $2,693 in the short term, a 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point. During the day, neutral bias with bullish positioning conditions will be brought into focus again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,634 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2683 - 2681⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2687 →Take Profit 1 2676 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2533 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Pay attention to ADP and FOMC minutes of the dayOn this trading day, Wednesday January 8, investors will need to focus on US ADP jobs data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which are expected to causing major fluctuations in the market. On Wednesday, US ADP employment change data for December will be released. This data is called "small non-farm" and is expected to create a major trend in the market. Surveys show that US ADP employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in December. Previously, US ADP employment increased by 146,000 in November. On the same day, one of the Federal Reserve's most influential senior officials, Governor Waller, will give a speech on the economic outlook at the OECD meeting. On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting. The minutes could provide more information about the future policy roadmap, especially whether the Fed will actually become hawkish or not. At its December meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and officials forecast just two rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said further adjustments will be made. depends on inflation developments. The accumulation state on the daily chart of gold prices is still continuing. After yesterday's recovery, the upward momentum is limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Attention readers in the previous issue there. Up to now, the price activity position is becoming increasingly narrower, gradually entering the corner of the accumulation price triangle. This shows hesitant market sentiment, and predicts an impending spike in amplitude. Regarding the overall picture, the gold price trend is still neutral, sticking around EMA21 and the Fibonacci level of 0.618%. With upside limited by 2,664 – 2,693USD and downside limited by 2,604 – 2,600 – 2,592USD. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index is still sticking around 50, also showing the market's hesitant psychology. Before the fundamental impact creates price structural mutations, gold still has a neutral outlook, with a cumulative sideways trend, and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2677 - 2675⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2661 →Take Profit 1 2670 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2665 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2617 - 2619⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2513 →Take Profit 1 2624 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2629
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Maintain neutrality, pay attention to US data todayAs of press time on Tuesday (January 7), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a moderate recovery trend during the day, with gold prices currently around 2,639 USD/ounce. Gold prices continue to stabilize, with technical trends unchanged from previous releases. During this trading day, US macro data will be in focus with the data mentioned below expected to create significant volatility in the short term. Today (Tuesday), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This important employment data is expected to cause large fluctuations in gold prices this trading day. Economists predict that there will be 7.7 million JOLT job openings in the United States in November, compared with 7.744 million in October. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Additionally, on the same day, the US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for December will be published and is expected to be 53.5, compared to the previous value of 52.1. In terms of technical structure, OANDA:XAUUSD Still mainly accumulating activities with price activities sticking around the EMA21 line. And the cumulative sideways trend is depicted by the purple price triangle. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sticking around 50, showing that market sentiment is also hesitant and waiting for a significant fundamental impact to create a short-term trend. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is neutral, moving sideways and accumulating with notable levels that will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2658 - 2656⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2662 →Take Profit 1 2651 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2646 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2623 - 2625⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2519 →Take Profit 1 2630 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2640
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 06 - January 10]OANDA:XAUUSD are almost trading in a narrow range throughout the Christmas holiday and New Year 2025. Currently, gold prices have not yet escaped the triangle model of the H4 technical chart. Entering 2025, three important factors can shape the price of gold. First, the big event will take place on January 20 this year when Donald Trump takes office as US President. Mr. Trump is likely to put pressure on the FED to influence the interest rate environment. Second, Mr. Trump will heat up the trade war with other countries, especially with Canada, Mexico, Europe and China. This means economic growth could suffer and geopolitical instability could linger. Third, we are in a period where most investors will reallocate investment flows into their portfolios. As economic and political variables are gradually changing. In the long term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by the above factors. But in the short term this week, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indicators: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, gold prices will be under pressure to adjust. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will positively support gold prices. 📌Technically, from a short-term perspective this week, there are 2 resistance levels to pay attention to: the resistance level at 2685 and the round resistance level at 2600. In case the resistance level is broken, corresponding to the price breaking through the Downtrend line, the price will Gold will continue to maintain its upward trend to the 2720-2790 thresholds respectively. In the opposite case, if the gold price drops from the Uptrend line, we will see a scenario where the price drops back around the 2530 threshold. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD soars on positive conditions, despite USD strengthOANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase after a strong increase in yesterday's trading day. Gold price is currently at about 2,663 USD/ounce. Despite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold still rose to its highest level in more than two weeks, due to safe-haven buying and falling US bond interest rates. The market is rushing to open positions before the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies are introduced. US media exclusively reported: Biden discussed a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facility before Trump took office US President Joe Biden has discussed plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before Trump's inauguration on January 20 if Tehran accelerates its development of nuclear weapons, US website Axios reported. Reuters reported that Russia carried out drone attacks in Kiev early Wednesday morning, causing damage to two areas, while Israel attacked a community near Gaza City. The market at the beginning of the year will pay close attention to the development of geopolitical risks. Any sign of tension in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine could send the price of gold, the traditional safe haven, higher. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical instability and discovery risk, but because it doesn't earn interest, it does better in a low interest rate environment. The latest report from Britain's Reuters today (Friday) said that Gaza authorities said an Israeli air strike on Thursday killed at least 68 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including a tent camp and people standing head of the Hamas-controlled police force in the Gaza Strip. His deputy and nine evacuees died there. The attack took place in the Al-Mawasi area, which was previously designated a humanitarian zone for civilians during the 14-month war between Israel and Hamas, which rules Gaza. According to the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, Gaza police chief Mahmoud Salah and his assistant Hussam Shahwan were killed in the attack while they were checking in refugees. The Gaza Interior Ministry added in a statement: "By committing the crime of assassinating the Gaza Strip police chief, the occupiers are determined to spread chaos in (the enclave) and deepen the suffering of people." Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After struggling for quite a while in the area of ​​the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday, since gold broke this important confluence around 2,634 USD, it has had bullish conditions in the short term. The area of ​​POC Volume Profile with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.618% now becomes a short-term support area. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal as the current 50 level also becomes support for the RSI in the short term. Temporarily, the gold price chart is limiting its upward momentum by the 0.50% Fibonacci level and if gold continues to break this level it will tend to increase further with the next target being $2,693 which is the position of the upper edge of the triangle. purple price tag. Thus, the intraday trend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following levels. Support: 2,634 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2694 - 2692⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2698 →Take Profit 1 2687 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2682 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2636 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2641
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD maintains a narrow recovery rangeOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a recovery trend and narrow range during the day. As of the time of writing, gold price is currently trading at about 2,633 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to many important data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, PMI and the housing market, which are expected to stimulate activate market conditions and create market volatility. Today (Thursday), seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of December 28 will be released, expected to be 224,000, compared to 219,000 the previous week. If the latest initial unemployment claims are lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and affect the price of gold and major non-US currencies. On the same day, the final value of the US Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December will be announced, expected to be 48.3. US construction spending in November will be released, with the monthly rate expected to increase 0.3%. On the daily chart it's OANDA:XAUUSD is still trading in a very narrow operating range, with temporary short-term rallies still limited by pressure from the EMA21 and the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Note to readers in digital publications out first. Temporarily, gold's trend is quite neutral with the possibility of accumulation depicted by the purple triangle. However, based on the current position, gold has more conditions to decrease in price with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below level 50, level 50 is considered resistance or support for RSI depending on conditions. RSI's lawsuit. On the other hand, gold could open a new bearish cycle once it is sold below the 0.786% Fibonacci level and the subsequent target of $2,538 in the short term. Even if gold recovers above EMA21, it is still unable to create a concrete uptrend, with pressure from the upper edge of the purple price triangle. Using the POC Volume Profile we will also see that the area around 2,634 – 2,640USD is an area where a lot of trading occurs, this should be considered a pressure area given gold's current position. During the day, gold's trend is neutral with technical conditions tilted to the downside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD tries to recover after the holidayOn this trading day, gold traders OANDA:XAUUSD will need to focus on data on initial jobless claims in the US, which could have an impact on market trends in the short term. The seasonally adjusted number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week of December 21 will be released today (Thursday) and is expected to be 224,000. Data released last week showed initial jobless claims in the United States fell from 242,000 to 220,000 in the week ended December 14, below expectations of 230,000, showing signs that the labor market movement is still steady. If the latest initial unemployment claims turn out to be lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and a negative impact on the price of gold and major non-US currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered from the technical level of $2,613, but the recovery is still limited by the upper edge of the price channel, along with the nearest resistance level noted at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point. % and EMA21. Considering the current price position, gold still has a technical outlook of falling in price with the main trend being noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet surpassed the 50 level, the 50 level is considered resistance/support depending on the position of the RSI and on the current daily chart it is considered a resistance. In the short term, if gold falls below the technical level of $2,613 it will have room to fall a bit further with a target level then around $2,600 and more to the $2,592 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement. . As long as gold does not break above the price channel, with price activity stabilizing above the EMA21, it remains biased to the downside, with notable levels listed below. Along with that, using POC Volume Profile, at 2,646USD there is also a large trading volume, this position should also be considered a technical resistance. Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,592USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,646USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trading liquidity is low during the Christmas holidayAmid sluggish trading during the holiday season, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly, dragged down by the strength of the US Dollar and high US Treasury bond yields. And the market needs to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve's 2025 monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, this signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025, sending gold prices to their lowest since mid-month 11 last week. While non-yielding gold benefits from the low interest rate environment, the market will need to readjust expectations for the year ahead. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 have weighed on gold prices, and gold will face pressure during the holiday week. Interest rate cuts initially boosted gold prices, but the Fed's forecast of only two rate cuts by 2025 (down from four in September) sparked a sell-off that sent gold prices to lows. lowest since mid-November. With economic data limited this week due to the Christmas holiday, gold prices are expected to remain in a tight range. Liquidity remains low, reducing volatility and keeping price action subdued. Gold has hit multiple record highs this year and is up 27% year to date, its best annual gain since 2010, thanks to strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy monetary easing by major banks. President-elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20. The market is about to return to trading in a Donald Trump environment, we cannot forget the trading period when he was in office, how the market fluctuated with his emotions on each line. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain activity below the confluence resistance area noted by readers in yesterday's publication at the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci level, to maintain the trend. main discount. While the recovery has been limited, gold is also trading above the $2,613 technical level, and gold could fall a bit further with a target of around $2,591 as it is sold below $2,613. The relative strength index (RSI) is operating below 50, which should be considered a negative signal for the trend of gold prices. During the day, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci, it remains inclined towards a bearish outlook with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,591USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,643USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered quite strongly, falling after FOMCOn the Asian market today (Thursday, December 19), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered strongly after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold price reached its highest level at the time of writing at 2,618 USD/ounce, an increase of nearly 30 USD during the day. The market will next receive US economic data, including final third-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. Market attention will then turn to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will boost the U.S.'s copper performance. US Dollar and gold in the short term. FOMC On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and predicted less policy easing in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the threshold for the next rate cut could be higher, which sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields soaring, while at the same time, Gold fell more than 2% to a one-month low in trading on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for a third straight time on Wednesday, but lowered their forecast for the number of rate cuts next year, signaling they are increasingly cautious about being able to reduce spending. How quickly does the loan cost? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 on Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged. In the FOMC policy statement, Fed officials noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the committee's 2% target but remains high. The new Dotplot chart shows some officials expect fewer interest rate cuts next year than they estimated just a few months ago. Fed officials currently expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.75% - 4% by the end of 2025, which, according to the median estimate, would mean two rate cuts of 25 points each. basic. Jerome Powell The Fed will cut interest rates only twice next year amid rising inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a forecast consistent with Trump's wait-and-see approach when he returned to the White House in January. Powell said Fed policymakers want to see more progress in reducing inflation when considering future rate-cutting strategies. US federal funds rate futures have reflected that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on January 28-29 next year. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Thus, gold has enough conditions to decrease in price after falling below the 0.618% Fibonacci level and bringing price activity back below the EMA21 moving average, with a sudden impact from fundamental factors. In the short term, although gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,591, which was the bearish target noted by previous readers, it could still continue to decline further with a target around $2,538. . When the Relative Strength Index dropped below the 50 mark and was quite far from the oversold area, it showed that there is still plenty of room for price decline ahead. During the day, gold price increases as long as they do not surpass the 0.618% Fibonacci level and EMA21 should only be considered short-term recovery. Along with that, the downward trend in gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,624 – 2,634USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2635 - 2633⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2639 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2623 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2549 - 2551⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2546 →Take Profit 1 2556 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2561
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week. The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month. According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%. At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected. “We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.” So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data. According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%. Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets. On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises. Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path. Data and events this week The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US consumer confidence Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales Wednesday: Christmas break Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%. Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead. As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2600 →Take Profit 1 2611 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2616
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading