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Staying above $3,000, risk cools but still supports GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD prices corrected lower and then recovered slightly, maintaining price action above the $3,000 flat level, which is an important support for the short-term bullish outlook, as US President Trump eased his stance on imposing tariffs on trade partners and market risk appetite increased significantly, putting pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, gold prices were also dragged down by the US Dollar hitting a more than two-week high. OANDA:XAUUSD prices have hit a record high 16 times this year, reaching an all-time high of $3,057.21/oz last week. Trump May Exempt Some Countries from Tariffs, Wall Street Optimistic Trading sentiment on Wall Street was positive as US President Trump suggested a partial delay in some tariffs originally scheduled to be imposed on April 2. According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Trump said he may reduce retaliatory tariffs scheduled to be imposed on US trading partners next month and some countries may be exempted. According to Bloomberg, US President Trump announced on April 2 that he would impose tariffs on specific countries instead of reciprocal tariffs on most countries. These measures target the so-called “Dirty 15” trading partners. Trump’s tariff policy stance has shown signs of softening, easing investors’ concerns about the risk of a global trade war. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling the possibility of two 25-basis-point cuts this year. U.S. and Russian officials are holding talks in Saudi Arabia in hopes of making progress on a broad ceasefire in Ukraine. Washington also hopes to negotiate a separate maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea before reaching a broader agreement. Overall, the market is showing some signs of cooling down, providing the possibility of a correction for gold prices after a long period of consecutive increases. However, in terms of the overall market picture, gold is still fundamentally on the rise, as potential risks still appear frequently and any unexpected impact from geopolitical and trade risks will also cause gold prices to increase strongly. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrects lower but remains fixed above the base price of 3,000 USD, which is noted as an important support for the short-term bullish outlook, sent to readers in the previous issue. In the short term, the upside target is around 3,021 USD, the price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension, once this level is broken on gold, it can continue to increase with the target of 3,051 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high then the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Overall, as long as gold remains within the price channel, above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook, the current price declines should only be considered as a short-term correction without changing the main trend. During the day, the technical uptrend of gold will be focused again as follows. Support: 3,000 – 2,977 USD Resistance: 3,021 – 3,051 – 3,057 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3037 - 3035⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3041 →Take Profit 1 3029 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3023 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2978 - 2980⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2974 →Take Profit 1 2986 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2992
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 24 - March 28]Last week, although the OANDA:XAUUSD had a sharp decrease in the last 2 sessions of the week, overall, the gold price this week continued to increase for the 3rd consecutive week. After opening at 2,985 USD/oz, the gold price increased to 3,057 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,999 USD/oz in the last session of the week, then recovered and closed the week at 3,023 USD/oz. The reason why the gold price decreased sharply in the last session of last week was because the USD increased again after the FED meeting, when some US economic indicators, such as initial unemployment benefits, production index... were all at a positive level, showing that the US economy has not shown any signs of recession. In addition, some FED officials said that the FED is not in a hurry to continue cutting interest rates, although the FED's dot chart previously showed that the FED will still aim to cut interest rates twice this year. This week, the US will release a number of important indicators, such as PMI, consumer confidence, revised Q4/2024 GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Of these, PCE will receive special attention from the market, because this index is the inflation measure that the FED is most interested in. If PCE increases sharply, the FED will continue to cut interest rates. On the contrary, the FED will continue to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Several key economic data releases this week, including the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Monday and the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, will give the market a clearer picture of where the U.S. economy is headed. However, the most important data for investors will be the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, due Friday morning. Other notable data releases include new home sales on Tuesday, durable goods orders on Wednesday, and pending home sales, weekly unemployment figures, and U.S. fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. 📌Technically, the key support level for gold this week is around $2,954/oz, while the resistance level is at $3,057/oz. If gold continues to break above $3,057/oz next week, it could open the door for a further rally towards the $3,100/oz resistance zone. On the contrary, gold could face profit-taking pressure, causing the price to fall to around $2,950/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,021 – 3,000USD Resistance: 3,051 – 3,057 – 3,065USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3101 - 3099⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3105 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD at absolute fundamental support but RSI overboughtOANDA:XAUUSD have now fallen to around $3,048/ounce, down $9 from the historic high reached in early Asian trading today, March 20. On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its interest rate decision and summarized economic expectations; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference on monetary policy. The FOMC kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% after the Trump administration imposed tariffs, while officials raised their inflation forecasts for this year and lowered their economic growth forecasts. After concluding a two-day monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5% and announced it would slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction starting in April. The Fed also released its FOMC statement, predicting rising U.S. inflation and lowering its economic growth forecast. Amid signs of stagflation, the Fed still announced that it would cut interest rates twice by 2025, similar to the dovish signal it gave when it cut interest rates sharply last September. The statement noted that recent indicators show that economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. In recent months, unemployment has remained low, labor market conditions have remained strong, and inflation has remained moderately elevated. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell first mentioned tariffs at a press conference after the meeting, acknowledging that Trump’s policies have affected the economy. Powell also indicated that the policies of the new Trump administration will affect the economy, but he will be careful to avoid making too clear assessments of this impact. Powell also used the word “uncertainty” several times. He reiterated that there is still uncertainty about the potential impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and highlighted the risks to the Fed’s expectations for employment and inflation. – Bloomberg – Last week, US President Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25% and said new reciprocal tariffs and industrial duties would take effect on April 2. On the geopolitical front, hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued despite a 30-day ceasefire aimed at halting attacks on energy facilities. Meanwhile, conflict in the Middle East escalated as Reuters reported that an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday killed 400 people. Two UN staff were killed in an attack on the UN building in Deir el Balah, central Gaza Strip, a UN source told AFP on Wednesday. Gold prices have risen more than 15% this year. Gold has long been seen as a safe investment in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, and since it does not yield interest, it is even more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to refresh its all-time highs as it finds support from the 0.50% Fibonacci extension noted by readers in yesterday’s edition and currently has no technical barriers ahead, with the next upside target being the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. While all technical conditions are in favor of the upside with the channel acting as short-term support and the RSI showing no signs of a significant downside correction, downside corrections when they do occur are typically strong after a long period of hot growth like the current one. Traders can definitely prepare for a downside correction with a target of around $3,037 in the short term and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension is a position that can fit this expectation. I will try to describe that if you try to sell around the 0.618% Fibonacci level is a counter-trend decision, but since the RSI has been operating in the overbought area and 6 consecutive bullish sessions have occurred, there is a possibility for a downside correction. However, the need to do for the expectation (Adjustment) means that the open short positions should be completed in the short term because it is counter-trend. During the day, the uptrend in gold prices with the expectation of a downside correction will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: $3,037 – $3,021 – $3,000 Resistance: $3,065 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3101 - 3099⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3105 →Take Profit 1 3093 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3087 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2999 - 3001⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2995 →Take Profit 1 3007 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3013
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Gaza conflict and Trump tariffs push GOLD higher againOANDA:XAUUSD rose more than 1% on Tuesday to a new record high and are currently trading around $3,035/oz, close to yesterday's peak. Trade uncertainty due to rising tensions in the Middle East and US President Trump's tariff plans have boosted investor demand for safe-haven assets. Israeli airstrikes kill more than 400 in Gaza Early Tuesday morning local time, the Israeli military carried out heavy airstrikes on Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip, Deir el Balah, the Nusayrat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, as well as Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south. The British news agency Reuters reported that Israeli airstrikes killed more than 400 people in Gaza, threatening a two-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the airstrikes were carried out because Hamas has repeatedly refused to release Israeli detainees. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Hamas does not release the detainees, "our attacks will intensify." Hamas said Israel's move was a unilateral end to the ceasefire, leaving Israelis held in Gaza "to face an unknown fate." There were unconfirmed reports that an Iranian vessel collecting intelligence during the Gaza offensive was sunk by US forces, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Saudi media reported on Tuesday that the Iranian Navy's most advanced intelligence ship, the Zagros, was hit by an unidentified missile in the Red Sea on Monday evening local time, causing its hull to be damaged, leaking and sinking. World Media reported that the US military was then attacking Houthi armed forces in the area outside the Red Sea, while the Israel Defense Forces conducted a large-scale bombing of Gaza, and the origin of the missile that hit the Iranian naval vessel could not be determined. Trump's Tariffs Meanwhile, US President Trump has proposed a series of US tariff plans, including a 25% flat tariff on steel and aluminum (which took effect in February), as well as reciprocal tariffs and sectoral tariffs that will be applied on April 2. Trump said he would impose general reciprocal tariffs on April 2, with additional tariffs targeting specific industries. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that both tariffs would be applied to foreign goods imported into the United States “under certain circumstances,” “They tax us, we tax them, and then we’ll tax other industries beyond autos, steel, aluminum.” Ultimately, Gold is often considered a safe investment in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, and in the current environment, it is still fundamentally well supported. There are also many other supports such as demand from central banks, national reserves, and ETF volumes, the decline of the Dollar, the Fed's monetary policy, etc. Readers can review previous publications for more information. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although the RSI is operating in the overbought area, it has not shown any signal to indicate a significant downside correction. A signal for a correction is a crossover of the RSI below 80. Meanwhile, the sustained price action above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level is a positive signal with the expectation of further upside and the next target is the 0.618% Fibonacci extension position at the price point of $3,065. Currently, there is no notable resistance ahead, so until the level of 3,065 USD gold can still rise freely. The intraday uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following notable positions. Support: 3,021 – 3,000 USD Resistance: 3,065 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3068 - 3066⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3072 →Take Profit 1 3060 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3054 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2984 - 2986⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2992 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2998
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 17 - March 21]Last week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply, from 2,880 USD/oz to 3,005 USD/oz. Then, profit-taking pressure caused the gold price to drop to 2,978 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,986 USD/oz. The reason for the sharp increase in gold prices in recent days is that US inflation figures (CPI, PPI) have decreased more sharply than expected, raising expectations that the FED will cut interest rates twice more this year. In addition, concerns about US public debt have increased as the US Congress is unlikely to pass the Budget Bill, putting the US government at risk of a shutdown. The FED meeting next week will play an important role in shaping expectations about the FED's interest rate policy. This could be the main driver for gold prices next week, given the inverse correlation between gold and the USD. However, in recent comments, the FED Chairman has remained cautious about inflationary pressures due to concerns that the Trump administration's tariff policies will fuel inflation in the medium and long term. Therefore, it is possible that the FED Chairman will continue to maintain interest rates at current levels in the next meetings. If so, this will be a shock to gold prices next week, causing gold prices to fall next week. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: This week is shaping up to be a volatile one for gold, with markets digesting a number of key economic releases. Central banks continue to dominate the calendar, with the Bank of Japan announcing its interest rate decision on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England on Thursday. There are also a number of key US economic data releases, including Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday, Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday. On Thursday, markets will be watching the weekly Unemployment Report, Existing Home Sales and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. 📌Technically, in the short-term perspective on the H1 chart, gold prices next week may maintain their upward momentum to find the 161.8 fibo level around 3035. Or they may temporarily reduce and adjust around the Trendline at 2915. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,977 – 2,956 USD Resistance: 3,000 – 3,021 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3036 - 3034⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3040 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2914 - 2916⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2910
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surges as geopolitical risks unexpectedly boost gainsOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in the short term, with gold prices just hitting a new all-time high of $3,014/oz. As investors focused on US economic data, which raised concerns about an economic slowdown, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, the precious metal's appeal as a safe haven was highlighted. Israel Strikes Hamas Targets Across Gaza, Killing Over 200 Israel said it carried out military airstrikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, a move that risks derailing a fragile ceasefire. Palestinians reported multiple airstrikes by Israel on various areas of the Gaza Strip. Traders were also looking at U.S. retail sales data, which showed a smaller-than-expected increase in February. Falling yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes also helped boost non-interest-bearing gold. Israel has launched a series of airstrikes on the Gaza Strip as a nearly two-month-old ceasefire appeared to be rapidly unraveling, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying his government would “increase its military force” against Hamas. Palestinians reported Israeli airstrikes in several areas of Gaza on Tuesday morning, and an Israeli statement confirmed the attacks took place across Gaza. Hamas’ media office said on Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip had killed more than 200 people. The attack shattered a fragile ceasefire that had been suspended for 15 months in the war ravaging the Gaza Strip. It was the heaviest bombing since a ceasefire brokered by Egypt, Qatar and other countries took effect in January. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level which is also the bullish price target of 3,000 USD, gold is continuing to aim for the target level behind that, pay attention to readers last week at 3,021 USD in the short term, which is the location of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping up with a significant slope and has not completely moved above the overbought area, showing that momentum and room for growth is still ahead. Next, the main trend and outlook remains bullish with price channels and mid- to short-term trend. The main support is seen by the EMA21. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it remains technically bullish, the current dips should only be considered as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. The following areas of interest will also be noted. Support: $3,000 – $2,977 Resistance: $3,021 – $3,065 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3036 - 3034⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3040 →Take Profit 1 3028 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3022 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2957 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2963
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI increased slightly and decreased rapidly, downtrend TVC:USOIL prices rose slightly by about 1% in Asian trading on Monday before falling sharply, largely due to the continued US military crackdown on Houthi militias. US Pete Hegseth said on Sunday that the US military will continue to fight the Houthis until they stop attacking international shipping lanes. The US has previously conducted airstrikes in Yemen, causing casualties among Houthi fighters. The Houthis have hinted that they could take stronger retaliatory actions, adding to market concerns that the situation in the Red Sea will continue to escalate. While geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher, concerns about global economic growth limited gains. Goldman Sachs analysts have lowered their oil price forecasts based on the following points: • The Trump administration’s new tariffs on Mexico and Canada could restrict global trade and lead to lower-than-previously expected US economic growth. • The slowdown in economic growth will lead to lower oil demand, and Goldman Sachs expects oil demand growth in the coming months to be lower than previously estimated by the market. • OPEC+ supply could exceed expectations, and while the market is currently focused on the situation in the Middle East, overall supply remains relatively abundant. • The market expects signs of a slowdown in the US economy to keep oil prices under pressure in the long term, although geopolitical factors could still support prices in the short term. In addition, the market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on March 18-19. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged while continuing to assess the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the economy. If the economic outlook continues to deteriorate, the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy this year cannot be ruled out. WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook Analysis TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is temporarily in the accumulation phase but with the current position and structure, the downtrend is still dominant with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel, the medium-term by the price channel and the nearest pressure from the EMA21. The recovery momentum of WTI crude oil is also limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, and as long as crude oil fails to move above the EMA21 and break above the price channel, it still has a main bearish outlook. In the short term, the downside target is around $65, the low since September 10, 2024, followed by the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Notable positions for the WTI crude oil downside trend will be listed again as follows. Support: $66.63 – $65.33 Resistance: $67.85 – $68.52 – $69.07
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD nears $3,000 as trade tensions escalateOANDA:XAUUSD have surged to an all-time high, just shy of the key $3,000-an-ounce mark as global trade tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut push them closer to a record high. They have risen nearly 14% this year, following a 27% gain in 2024. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to impose 200% tariffs on wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages from France and the rest of the European Union, marking a further escalation in global trade tensions. Trump tweeted Thursday that he would impose import tariffs if the European Union continues to impose duties on U.S. whiskey exports. The EU's move is in retaliation for Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that took effect on Wednesday. Trump also had harsher words for the European Union. The EU has been one of the United States' closest allies for decades. Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: "The European Union is one of the most hostile and abusive tax and tariff organizations in the world, and their sole purpose is to take advantage of the United States. They just put a disgusting 50% tariff on whiskey. If this tariff is not removed immediately, the United States will soon put a 200% tariff on all wine, champagne and spirits coming from France and other EU member states. This will be a tremendous boon to the American wine and champagne industry." Trump’s trade policy changes have boosted the price of gold, an asset favored by investors during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had rejected plans for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, which also contributed to the safe-haven buying of gold. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia will not agree to an immediate end to fighting in Ukraine and called for further discussions on ending the war permanently, The Wall Street Journal reported. Moscow’s military is now advancing rapidly, aiming to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region. Putin said any ceasefire at this stage would be in Ukraine’s interests because Russia is winning on the battlefield and there are many issues that need to be resolved before a ceasefire can be reached. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, said its holdings rose to 907.82 tonnes on February 25, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, data from China's central bank showed China bought gold for a fourth straight month in February. Over the weekend, data on US consumer confidence and inflation expectations will be less in the spotlight than tariffs and geopolitical headlines. For economic data, readers can find more details in the signature section through brief comments during the day. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is down slightly year-to-date after approaching the important raw price level of $3,000. The current correction is also not significant as the uptrend will still dominate the chart with the price channel as the nearest support at present, the main support is noted by the EMA21 and the other support is the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet risen above the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for upside. Intraday, as long as gold remains above the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level, its main short-term outlook remains bullish. Even if gold falls below the aforementioned support area, it remains in an overall bullish trend, so the current declines should be viewed as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Next, the target will be the full price point of $3,000 in the short term and more at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level. The notable positions for the day are listed as follows. Support: $2,977 – $2,956 Resistance: $3,000 – $3,021 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3037 - 3035⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3041 →Take Profit 1 3029 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3023 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2957 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2963
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits Bullish targets, heading for all-time highAs tariff uncertainty pushed money into safe havens, cooling US inflation kept market expectations of a Fed rate cut intact and optimism over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine cooled, OANDA:XAUUSD surged and broke out of its recent sideways consolidation trading range. OANDA:XAUUSD surged past the $2,942/oz target on safe-haven demand. Weaker US CPI data also supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing gold higher. The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, slightly below the 2.9% expected and down from January's 3.0%. The year-on-year increase in the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 3.1% from January's 3.3%. Recent news of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also cooled earlier optimism. British news agency Reuters reported on Wednesday that Russian officials were skeptical about the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Kremlin was still waiting for the United States to announce its proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin needs to hear the results of the U.S.-Ukraine talks before commenting on whether Russia can accept the ceasefire. Commenting on a ceasefire proposal that has been accepted by both U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an influential Russian lawmaker insisted on Wednesday that any deal must be reached on Russian terms, not U.S. A senior Russian source said President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to agree to a ceasefire proposal without finalizing the terms and receiving some guarantees. Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia on Tuesday in exchange for the Trump administration resuming suspended military aid and intelligence sharing. The deal was announced by US and Ukrainian officials after eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Trump said US officials would meet with their Russian counterparts on Wednesday and he could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks continued to buy gold. The People's Bank of China and the National Bank of Poland added 10 tonnes and 29 tonnes of gold, respectively, in the first two months of 2025. Traders will next keep a close eye on the release of the US producer price index (PPI) for February, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook analysis On the daily chart, as of the time of writing, gold has achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in the weekly publication, along with all the conditions for the possibility of a price increase when there is no more resistance ahead other than the all-time high. The short-term price channel is noted as the trend at the moment, along with the Relative Strength Index RSI maintaining above 50, surpassing 61, showing that the bullish momentum dominates the market and there is still a lot of room for price increase ahead because it is still quite far from reaching the overbought area. The most notable supports now are the $2,929 level in the short term, followed by the EMA21 area. Overall, the uptrend is dominating on the daily chart, with notable price levels listed below. Support: $2,929 – $2,915 Resistance: $2,956 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2761 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers and stays above $2,900, pay attention to CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded, driven mainly by safe-haven flows as trade war concerns dampened market risk sentiment and markets focused on US inflation data. TVC:DXY hit a four-month low, making gold more attractive. Meanwhile, the main event of the week is the US CPI report today (March 12), which could cause major market moves. Positive data could lead to a sharp sell-off in gold, while weak data could give the green light for further gains in gold. CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in February, according to a Reuters poll. The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer expectations survey forecasts inflation at 3.1% over the next year, up slightly from 3% in January. Markets are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, in terms of trend, gold is still in the accumulation phase after recovering from the $2,880 level noted by readers in the previous editions and the break above the $2,900 level provides conditions for further testing of the $2,929 level in the short term. For now, gold is still trading around the EMA21 and is still in a consolidation state, but in terms of technical conditions, it is more likely to increase in price. With the price channel as a short-term trend, and the RSI activity above 50, quite far from the overbought zone, it shows that the bullish momentum is still ahead. However, the technical chart still needs a strong impact to break the current accumulation structure. And during the day, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,929 - 2,942 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2961 - 2959⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2965 →Take Profit 1 2953 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2947 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2899 - 2901⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2895 →Take Profit 1 2907 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2913
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers to trade around $2,900, still has a lot of supportOANDA:XAUUSD has stabilized and recovered after falling more than $20 yesterday and is now trading around $2,900. Earlier, investor concerns about a US economic slowdown caused a broad decline in stocks and commodities, dragging down precious metals, especially gold. OANDA:XAUUSD held above $2,880 after falling nearly 1% on Monday. US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the US economy could get worse before it gets better and that he was adjusting trade policy through tariffs, fueling market concerns about a possible economic recession. When broader financial markets take a hit, investors may sell gold to cover losses in other assets, causing the price of gold to fall in the short term. Gold prices have rallied 10% so far this year, hitting a new high. The rally has been fueled by uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies, central bank purchases of gold, and expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold. While rising gold prices have dented physical demand in some major Asian economies, inflows into gold ETFs have remained steady. Holdings of gold ETFs hit their highest level since December 2023 as of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors had begun to reduce their exposure to gold ahead of Monday’s sharp market sell-off. Hedge funds’ long gold positions fell to their lowest in nine weeks, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While this correction appears to be broad-based, the underlying forces will still be a solid support for gold's upside potential, from the geopolitical landscape to Trump's policies creating global trade conflicts to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Overall, gold still has a lot of support. Markets focus on US inflation data and Fed policy expectations Investors are now focused on upcoming US inflation data to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) – due on Wednesday US Producer Price Index (PPI) – due on Thursday Traders are now fully pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that it is not yet known whether the Trump administration’s tariff policies will lead to higher inflation. In general, lower interest rates increase the appeal of gold because it is a non-interest-bearing asset, making it cheaper to hold than other assets. OANDA:XAUUSD Technical Outlook Analysis On the daily chart, after gold fell to the support level noted by readers in the previous issue at 2,880 USD, it received support to recover, currently trading around 2,900 USD. A break above the 2,900 USD price level would be considered a positive signal with the next target being the EMA21 area, followed by 2,929 USD rather than 2,942 USD. In the short term, gold has not yet shown a specific trend when entering the accumulation phase, which is described by 2 green trend lines. But in the medium and long term, the possibility of price increase is still very good when in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index RSI is still above 50. During the day, gold is in the accumulation phase with the main trend leaning towards price increase, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,880 - 2,868 USD Resistance: 2,900 - 2,929 - 2,942 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2908 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2912 →Take Profit 1 2900 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2894 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2857 - 2859⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2853 →Take Profit 1 2865 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2871
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls slightly as Dollar recovers, news, main trendsOANDA:XAUUSD has just dropped to around $2,912/ounce, down nearly $10 from the intraday high of $2,918/ounce reached earlier in the session. The recovery of the US Dollar can be seen as the current pressure causing gold prices to slightly decline from the intraday high. Overview of data and event news The Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with economists polled by Reuters who expected a gain of 160,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with expectations of 4%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said early Friday that the Fed would take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, adding that the economy “remains in good shape.” While gold is a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The market is now expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates starting in June, with a total of 76 basis points of interest rate cuts over the rest of the year. Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, inflation reports and retail sales data will also provide additional guidance for market trends in general and the gold market in particular. On the daily chart, gold is generally still in the accumulation phase with the positioning conditions tilted towards the upside. The short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel, while the nearest support is the EMA21 and the technical level of 2,900 USD. At the raw price point of 2,900 USD, it also created significant price increases in the last 2 days of the weekend. The relative strength index is facing some resistance from the 61 level noted in the previous issue, where once the RSI breaks this level it will continue to head towards the oversold zone which is a signal that will facilitate the possibility of gold price increasing in terms of momentum. In the coming time, as long as gold remains above 2,900 USD, it will still tend to be bullish in the short term, and the target continues to be the all-time high or higher. The notable technical price points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868 USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2956 - 2954⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2960 →Take Profit 1 2948 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2942 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 10 - March 14]OANDA:XAUUSD have recovered strongly this week, rising from $2,858/oz to $2,930/oz before adjusting to $2,910/oz. The main reason is political tension when US President Donald Trump stopped military aid to Ukraine and threatened to sanction Russia if it did not negotiate a ceasefire. This increased instability, supporting gold prices. However, if Russia and Ukraine move towards peace negotiations, gold prices may face downward pressure in the short term, although the possibility is still low. Furthermore, Mr. Trump’s move forced the European Union (EU) to launch a spending package of nearly 1 trillion euros to strengthen the defense of EU member states. This means that the EU’s budget deficit will become larger, leading to higher inflation and lower growth, thereby increasing the role of gold as a safe haven. The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure for February came in at 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 159,000. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% from 4% in January, but the labor market remains untroubled. As a result, the Fed may maintain its current interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also stressed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates as the labor market remains strong and inflation risks remain high. Rising inflation while the Fed maintains stable interest rates has caused real interest rates to fall, supporting gold prices. In addition, economic instability due to US tariff policies and the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine war have also increased the demand for safe haven gold. However, since most of the risks have been reflected in prices, gold may not increase sharply next week and there is a risk of correction due to short-term profit-taking pressure. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Inflation will be in focus next week as markets digest a number of key data on US prices and consumer spending. The most notable is the February CPI report on Wednesday, followed by the PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday. Other key events include the US JOLTS jobs report on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday morning, and the US weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. 📌Technically, gold prices will fluctuate in a relatively narrow daily range next week with support at $2,890/oz and resistance at $2,930/oz. If gold prices rise above $2,930/oz next week, they could rise to $2,950/oz, followed by strong resistance at $3,000/oz. However, if gold prices are pushed below $2,890/oz next week, they could fall to the $2,835-$2,860/oz range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2809 - 2811⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Markets hesitant, GOLD sideways on NFP data dayIn the Asian trading session on Friday (March 7), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a very slight decline during the day and the current gold price is around 2,911 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to impact the main trends in the gold market. The US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 in February. Gold is likely to react more strongly to disappointing employment data than to an optimistic non-farm payrolls report because this will push gold prices higher, ending the period of downward adjustment and subsequent recovery and accumulation in the past. The US will release its February non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Hanoi time on Friday. Surveys show that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US will increase by 160,000 in February, after increasing by 143,000 in January. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0% in February. Surveys also show that the monthly increase in average wages in the US is expected to slow to 0.3% in February, after increasing by 0.5% in January. Average hourly earnings are likely to increase at an annual rate of 4.1% in February. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring signs of weakness in the labor market as it tries to balance supporting the labor market and controlling inflation. The slowdown in employment data certainly adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process. Review of expected data: A large negative surprise in non-farm payrolls, at 100,000 or lower, could put significant pressure on the dollar and open the door for a move higher in gold to help it end the week on the positive side. On the other hand, if the non-farm payrolls figure reaches or exceeds 180k, the dollar could remain firm and limit the upside potential for gold. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still in the process of accumulation before receiving a strong impact of structural change from NFP data released today. Up to now, the upward momentum is limited but short-term price declines are supported from the base price area of ​​2,900 USD, this is considered the closest support to pay attention to readers in the previous publication. Technically, the short-term trend is currently unclear as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also moving sideways in the 60-50 range, indicating that market sentiment is still hesitant. However, considering the overall fundamental and technical picture, my personal opinion is to defend the bullish view, with each decline only being considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. During the day, the technical outlook for gold continues to target the technical level of 2,942 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,942 - 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fluctuates strongly, affected by ADP and Trump's policiesOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading fluctuated strongly due to the impact of US jobs data and news of Trump's tariffs. ADP's national jobs report, also known as the "small nonfarm" report, showed that private-sector job growth in the United States slowed in February, with just 77,000 jobs created, well below the expected 140,000 jobs. "Policy uncertainty and slowing consumer spending may have contributed to a slowdown in layoffs or hiring last month." ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "Our data, combined with other recent indicators, shows that employers are hesitant to hire as they assess the future economic environment." After the ADP data was released, the US Dollar index fell sharply, and spot gold prices recovered strongly from the lowest level in Wednesday's trading session of 2,894.27 USD/ounce. As of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,923USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.15% on the day. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump will waive tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month for automakers, responding to calls from industry leaders, the White House said on Wednesday. "We will give a one-month exemption to any imported cars that come in through USMCA," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. "The tariffs will still be in effect on April 2, but at the request of the USMCA companies, the president will give them a one-month exemption so they are not financially disadvantaged." According to Bloomberg, US President Trump is considering reducing tariffs on some agricultural products from Canada and Mexico. On Wednesday local time, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said "everything is on the table" and hoped the government would decide to provide relief to the agricultural sector. Specific waivers and exceptions for the agriculture industry, which could include potash and fertilizers, have not yet been determined, Rollins said at the White House. “We believe that the President (Trump) cares very much about these communities,” Rollins said at the White House. On the geopolitical front, aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed steps toward peace with the U.S. national security adviser, and Ukraine and the United States agreed to meet soon. The cooling geopolitical situation in Ukraine can be seen as a pressure on gold prices in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Concerns about Trump's tariffs have pushed safe-haven gold prices to an all-time high 11 times this year, peaking at $2,956 an ounce on February 24 and rising 11% this year. On the daily chart, gold is currently trading with a newly formed price channel, and the next notable target level at $2,942 is more of an all-time high. However, in terms of momentum, it is facing some obstacles due to the 61 level of the RSI Relative Strength Index. If RSI breaks above this level, this will be a positive signal for price momentum. Even if gold falls below the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook, the current declines should still only be seen as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Some notable locations of the day will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2943 - 2941⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2947 →Take Profit 1 2935 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2929 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers, fueled by trade risks as key support Influenced by US President Trump's imposition of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised fears of a global trade war. OANDA:XAUUSD found support after fresh tariff concerns and rebounded to target $2,900 and above it the momentum is waning. Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week. Trump's tariff action, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual US two-way trade with China, takes effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain US imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on certain designated US entities, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa will immediately apply a 25% tariff on $20.7 billion worth of US goods. JPMorgan said it has a structurally long-term bullish view on gold and expects gold prices to reach $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are considered inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into the safe-haven gold, which has risen more than 10% this year. However, higher inflation in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets await the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more information on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved the $2,900 target gain readers noticed in previous editions since it reached support at $2,835. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is weakening but maintaining price activity above the original price level of $2,900 is considered a positive signal for continued upside, and the next target is $2,942 in the short term, more than the all-time high of $2,956. The interim relative strength index is also showing signs of reacting to the 61 resistance level, a continued break towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum. During the day, gold's price recovery prospects and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2884 - 2886⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2880 →Take Profit 1 2892 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2898
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD approaching 2,900USD, conditions for correction endOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery remains high after yesterday's strong increase and the current gold price is at about 2,887 USD ounce, equivalent to a decrease of 0.20% on the day, limited by the lower edge of the technical price channel and the EMA21. Geopolitical tensions and impending tariffs have boosted gold prices. Gold prices continue to rise again, but no other price increases have been confirmed yet. Spot gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, recovering from a three-week low hit in last week's final trading session, as a weaker U.S. dollar and U.S. President Trump's tariff policies spurred safe-haven buying. On Monday local time, US President Trump said at a press conference that the US would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4 and said there was no room for negotiations with these two US allies. Additionally, the US government announced it will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US starting March 4, citing fentanyl and other issues. Mr. Trump also said on Monday that the United States would impose "reciprocal tariffs" starting April 2 and would impose tariffs on countries that devalue their currencies as sanctions. In addition, Trump said on social networks that the United States will impose tariffs on "foreign" agricultural products from April 2. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After recovering from the support area noticed by readers in the previous issue at the area of ​​2,850 - 2,835 USD, gold has achieved the first target level at 2,880 USD and then approached the next target level at the original price point of 2,900 USD. It is also limited by the original price point of 2,900 USD when this is also the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and EMA21. Once gold breaks the $2,900 level and trades above it, it will be primed to continue rising, marking the end of the downward correction with a target then $2,942 in the short term, more than the location of the all-time peak. The relative strength index is also receiving support from the 50 level, if bullish momentum takes it back above the 60 level, this will be a positive signal for gold price upside on the technical chart. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is recovery with the condition of ending the above adjustment cycle, notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2921 - 2919⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2925 →Take Profit 1 2913 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2907 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2858 - 2860⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2854 →Take Profit 1 2866 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2872
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD suffered a fierce sell-off, the US Dollar was strongerOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to endure a fierce sell-off fueled by market profit-taking and a stronger US dollar, the US Dollar Index rose to a 10-day high on Friday of 107.66 amid concerns about US trade policy and data that raised fears of a recession. US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexican and Canadian products next week, March 4. This increases market uncertainty. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada does not want to get into a trade war with the United States, but if the United States imposes tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, Canada "will immediately have an extremely strong response." Bloomberg said currency traders bought the dollar after US President Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week. On Friday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicted that U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 would be -1.5%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.3%. The US Dollar was boosted after the data was released due to concerns about an economic recession. OANDA:XAUUSD fell to lows in early New York trading on Friday as Wall Street's major indexes opened weak as investors remained cautious about the potential for price pressure from President Trump's policies. As US PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, the data suggested the Federal Reserve may be more cautious in cutting interest rates, which helped the dollar remain at a two-week high. The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in January, in line with expectations. The overall PCE price index in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-over-year in January, also in line with expectations. However, “personally” believes that PCE data does not significantly change Fed price expectations, so it essentially has a small impact on gold prices. Spot gold prices fell 2.7% in the past trading week, the largest weekly decline since November last year. Next, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), (ADP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will become important market data. If inflation data rises too high, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in gold, and the opposite effect if slowing inflation data stimulates market bets on the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Of course, further analysis of the above data will be sent to readers in daily publications. Economic data to watch next week Monday: Euro Flash CPI Estimates, US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP jobs report; ISM US Services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. With its current position, gold does not have enough conditions to continue falling in price as long as gold maintains price activity above 2,835 USD and Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, along with the Relative Strength Index above 50. On the other hand, a confirmation signal for gold price to end the downward correction cycle is price activity returning to the price channel. However, traders also need to be careful as a new bearish cycle will open up once RSI goes below 50, the price chart is sold below 2,814 USD, so protective positions should be placed behind 2,814 USD. In the short term, gold is still in a downward correction cycle and the notable points will be listed as follows. As for "personally", I continue to defend the view that declines are only short-term corrections and not a sustainable trend, declines can also be considered an opportunity to buy. Support: 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2896 - 2894⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2888 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2882 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2819 - 2821⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2815 →Take Profit 1 2827 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2833
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 03 - March 07]OANDA:XAUUSD this week were under pressure to take profits. After opening this week at 2,934 USD/oz, gold prices rose to 2,956 USD/oz, but then continuously dropped to 2,832 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,858 USD/oz. Thus, gold prices this week dropped sharply after 8 consecutive weeks of increases. The reason why gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the USD continued to increase strongly compared to many other major currencies. Market sentiment changed slightly after the US announced the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for January 2025. Accordingly, PCE increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, thus down from 2.6% in December 2024 and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, core PCE, excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, also increased 2.6% year-on-year, but down from 2.9% in December 2024 and in line with forecasts. Notably, in the recent meeting, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had many disagreements and could not reach any agreement to contribute to an early end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. This is a factor that may increase gold's role as a haven, but it is unlikely to push gold prices up sharply next week, perhaps just a slight recovery before adjusting again. There will be a lot of data released next week, but the US February non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be of particular interest to investors. According to forecasts, NFP is expected to reach 156,000 jobs, compared to 143,000 jobs in January. If NFP reaches the forecast level, it will not affect the Fed's interest rate policy direction, unless NFP increases far beyond the threshold of 200,000 jobs. Therefore, NFP news is likely to have little impact on gold prices next week. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Next week, the market will focus on jobs data, with the US February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday morning. Other key economic events include the Eurozone FMCG and US ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP jobs report and US ISM services PMI on Wednesday, and weekly unemployment data on Thursday. The other big event of the week is the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday, with many experts expecting the ECB to make another interest rate cut. 📌Technically, gold prices next week may continue to adjust, with the level of 2,790 USD/oz being an important support level. If next week's gold price stays above this level, it will increase slightly to 2,900 USD/oz. On the contrary, if gold prices fall below 2,790 USD/oz next week, there is a risk of a deeper correction. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,814 – 2,835USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,868USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2739 - 2741⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2735
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 24 - Feb 28]OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase for the 8th consecutive week, marking the longest increasing streak in many years. Opening the week at 2,886 USD/oz, gold price peaked at 2,955 USD/oz and closed at 2,936 USD/oz. The main reason is concern about US tariff policy causing economic instability, increasing global gold demand. In addition, many central banks, especially in the BRICS bloc, are also actively buying gold. Gold prices will have more room to rise higher due to the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic instability, including the Trump administration's tariff policy and the risk of political instability in Europe. Additionally, demand for investing in gold-backed exchange-traded funds is also growing. The US PCE inflation report, released next Friday, may affect gold prices through FED interest rate adjustments. If PCE increases, the FED may delay cutting interest rates, which is detrimental to gold prices. On the contrary, if PCE drops sharply, the gold price could exceed 3,000 USD/oz. SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Tuesday morning will see the February US Consumer Confidence report, followed by January New Home Sales data on Wednesday. On Thursday, markets will receive preliminary reports on US fourth-quarter GDP, January Durable Goods Orders and weekly jobless claims, followed by US pending housing contract data later in the morning. However, the most important event of the week will be the US core PCE index on Friday, along with the January personal income and personal spending reports. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, helping gold traders gauge the outlook for interest rates in the near term. 📌Technically, although the gold price is still maintaining an uptrend, however, on the Weekly and Daily charts, some technical indicators such as MACD show signs that the price has diverged, the moving average lines (EMA34,89) are quite far from the price line, this shows that the gold price next week may face adjustment pressure before continuing to increase again, unless there are fundamental factors that have a strong impact on the gold price. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3001 - 2999⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3005 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2834 - 2836⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2830
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is under great pressure by the US DollarThe US Dollar Index soared again, which put pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD adding momentum to the adjustment momentum taking place in recent days. Bloomberg said that after US President Donald Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, currency traders bought the US Dollar, while currencies other than the USD were negatively affected, with the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso being hit the hardest. The soaring US Dollar is also detrimental to precious metals, commodities and digital currencies. Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. He stated on his "Truth Social" account: "Drugs are still flowing into our country from Mexico and Canada in unacceptable quantities. We cannot let this scourge continue to hurt the United States, so until it stops or is tightly controlled, tariffs are proposed." with Canada and Mexico) scheduled to take effect on March 4 will actually take effect as planned." Trump also said he would impose "reciprocity" tariffs of 25% on cars and other European goods. OANDA:XAUUSD In recent times, it has still been going fast and strong, although fundamentally there are still many existing support risks, mainly due to profit-taking activities after a long period of price increases and the strong increase in the price of the US Dollar. Thanks to the influx of money into safe havens, gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,956.15 an ounce on Monday after a rapid downward correction. Gold prices are clearly fluctuating, short-term fluctuations and some profit-taking are just a normal part of the cycle Since the presidential election on November 5 of last year, the Dollar Spot Index has gained 6.62%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The medium-term uptrend of gold price is threatened when the sell-off momentum brings gold price below the price channel and EMA21, these are negative signals with the next support level being noticed at the price point of 2,835USD, more likely is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, the $2,880 level is the previous support turned resistance with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement becoming the nearest resistance. On the other hand, the RSI tests the 50 mark. Once the RSI passes the 50 mark, this will be a warning of continued price decline because there is still room to fall with the RSI quite far from the oversold level. As noted to readers in previous publications and short comments during the day, the downward correction will not stop easily before the original price point of 2,900 USD, so you must always be ready for stronger corrections when gold has had a very long period of technical increase. Although gold has not yet formed a clear downtrend in the medium term, there is still room to fall ahead and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,850 – 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,880 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2915 →Take Profit 1 2903 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2897 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2849 - 2851⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2845 →Take Profit 1 2857 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2863
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
The downtrend dominates, the focus needs attentionGeneral crude oil market and WTI crude oil technical chart TVC:USOIL Still in a downward trend. Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, which has fueled supply-side market concerns and supported a recovery in oil prices, but they are still on a downtrend and trade policy uncertainty has limited a recovery in demand expectations. The focus of the crude oil market will still need to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation, the US Dollar index, and the Trump administration's trade policy. Notable technical levels are as follows. Support: 68.52USD Resistance: 70 - 71.43USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
Qualified for increases, but be careful with adjustmentsOANDA:XAUUSD remains in the rising channel after a significant downward correction since the recent record price rally and investors are focused on inflation data due out later this week and the latest developments on US President Donald Trump's tax plans. OANDA:XAUUSD was trading at nearly $2,905/oz as of press time, about 60Dollar below the all-time high reached on Monday after Trump announced his administration would impose 25% tariffs on the European Union without clarifying whether the tariffs would affect all EU exports or be limited to certain products or industries. At the same time, Trump also announced US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on April 2, delaying the original March 4 effective date. Late Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed he will maintain 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and added the European Union to the list of countries he will punish American consumers for importing goods from. Trump added that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on April 2. Market participants will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump's next tariff policy. Tariff uncertainty could spur flows into safe assets, benefiting precious metals. Since Trump returned to power, his comments on the timing, scale and targeting of tariffs have often confused global markets and raised questions about his policies. This instability, coupled with geopolitical changes, highlights gold's role as a store of value in times of uncertainty. Gold prices have also been supported in recent days by weak U.S. economic data, which has traders expecting the Federal Reserve to make just two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. Lower borrowing costs typically favor gold because the metal doesn't pay interest. On the other hand, Trump's plan to raise tariffs could raise the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation, which could convince the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. This may limit gold's rise. Looking ahead, investors will analyze Friday's core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation, for more reading and anticipation of the direction of monetary policy. Basically, gold still has a lot of potential support as the recent decline was mainly due to profit-taking and partly affected by the cooling situation in Ukraine, which was brought to the attention of readers through daily publications and short comments. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to decline as the recovery fails to take gold price above the POC Volume Profile and the Fibonacci point extends 0.236%. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also pointing down with a significant slope, showing that the price momentum is overwhelming because profit-taking activities in the market are overwhelming. It is very likely that gold will continue to decline more with a target of around 2,865 USD, this is also the confluence position of the lower edge of the price channel with EMA21, this support position is very important for the uptrend of gold prices in the medium term. Once gold is sold below $2,865, further downside will be noticed at $2,835 – $2,790 in the short term, so long protection levels should be placed behind this price point. Regarding the current position, gold still has enough upside conditions and notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,865USD Resistance: 2,933 – 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2869 - 2871⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2865 →Take Profit 1 2877 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2883
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
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