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GBPUSD fails to build after the recoveryUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:GBPUSD - U.S. dollar displays rangebound behavior ahead of high-impact events on Friday - US PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be key for markets - Thinner liquidity conditions are expected later in the week because of a bank holiday The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, moved within a narrow range on Tuesday, displaying a lack of clear direction, but ultimately managed to eke out tiny gains. Mixed U.S. Treasury yields and a sense of caution among market participants contributed to the muted price action, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of high-impact events on the U.S. economic calendar later this week. The release of core PCE data on Friday is significant as it provides insights into consumer prices. Fed Chair Powell's speech on the same day will be closely watched for clues on the timing of the first rate cut of 2024. However, market reaction may be delayed due to the bank holiday and Easter Monday in Europe, causing investors to hesitate until a clearer picture emerges. Forex trading during holidays may not be normal due to reduced liquidity, which can increase price swings. Even routine trades can disrupt the balance between supply and demand. It is advised to be cautious while trading in the upcoming days. OANDA:GBPUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD failed to sustain its rebound from Monday and moved lower, unable to break above trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at 1.2675. If this rejection is confirmed in the coming days, a retest of the 1.2600 level could happen soon, with further potential losses towards 1.2510. On the other hand, if buyers step in and push the pair higher, there is resistance at 1.2675 and then at the key psychological level of 1.2700. Breaking through this technical barrier might be challenging, but a decisive breakout could strengthen upward momentum and potentially lead to a rally towards 1.2830.
by Xayah_trading
EURGBP rose uncharacteristically on FridayEUR/GBP rose unusually on Friday as risks of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran eased. In addition, it is seen that inflation will decrease sharply to the target level in the coming months, sending a dovish signal to the market. The bank needs to remain restrained in its policy stance. However, he echoed Ramsden's comments by saying that the committee is seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamics. EUR/GBP appears to have found resistance around 0.8625 and has traded lower after the PMI data, even heading lower than the 200 SMA. A return to former channel resistance is potentially on the cards at 0.8578. Prices settled into the trading range as central bankers mulled incoming data and the prospect of a first rate cut appeared a fair distance away. Longer-term, the ECB is on track to cut rates in June, meaning sterling will extend its interest rate superiority and is likely to see the pair test familiar levels of support.
by Xayah_trading
Fed is "hawkish", GOLD corrects and stays above EMA21OANDA:XAUUSD remains weak on the recovery of the US Dollar and the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) later this week will be the focus of market attention. Traders need to prepare for a busy period of economic data and events in the United States (US), which will include inflation data, retail sales data and a speech from the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Jerome Powell on May 14. Earlier Monday, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson spoke to the media during a question-and-answer session at the Cleveland Fed. He said it would be appropriate to keep interest rates steady until there is further evidence that inflation will return to the central bank's 2% target. Jefferson described the Fed's policy as restrictive and said the lack of progress in inflation in the first quarter was worrying. Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release April consumer and manufacturing inflation data on May 14-15. If price pressures pick up again, the Fed could keeping interest rates higher “longer” and of course this is not beneficial for gold prices. Rising inflation expectations suggest the Fed may continue to delay expected interest rate cuts. This is not good for gold because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to interest-earning assets like bonds or cash. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials continued to factor into a sharp correction in gold prices on Monday. According to IMF data, Singapore increased its gold holdings by 4,448 tons to 236,610 tons in March 2024; Iraq increased its gold holdings by 3,079 tons to 145,661 tons in February 2024; Poland increased its gold holdings by 11,626 tons to 145,721 tons; 4,666 tons to 363,371 tons in April 2024. Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD outlook On the daily chart, although the gold price has corrected significantly from the upper channel edge to maintain the main downtrend price channel, the correction from the $2,366 technical point is of note to readers in the release of the issue. The interim week is also being constrained by the EMA21 level and the technical point of 2,330USD. The fact that gold is still above EMA21 does not make it eligible to fall more. However, once gold moves below $2,330 it will be eligible for more declines with the highest short-term target being the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. During the day, gold is still trending downward and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,335 – 2,330USD Resistance: 2,353 – 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2349 ⬆️TP2: 2344 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2305 - 2307 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2312 ⬆️TP2: 2317
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
PPI rises, but GOLD is supported by USD and YieldsOANDA:XAUUSD remained strong as the Dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, although data showed US producer prices rose more than expected in April, suggesting inflation remained high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that his confidence that inflation will continue to cool is no longer as high as it was at the beginning of the year and that the Fed needs to be patient before cutting interest rates. “I would say (the producer price index) is actually quite mixed,” Powell said. As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, Powell noted that the Fed's current restrictive stance may take "longer than expected to take effect and reduce inflation." “I do think the real issue is keeping policy at current interest rates longer than expected,” Powell said. According to the latest producer price index (which measures the price of goods produced by manufacturers), wholesale prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, above the market consensus of 0. 3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, "core" PPI also rose 0.5% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% increase. However, it is worth noting that the monthly price increase in March was revised down to 0.1% from the initial increase of 0.2%. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April as the cost of services and goods rose sharply, prompting traders to cut bets on the first interest rate cut in September. As a basic rule, the newly released PPI data is not beneficial for gold prices. However, because the Dollar and US Bond Yields faked together, gold was chosen and increased in price. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.7% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.3%. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. The focus now turns to US consumer price data due today (Wednesday), which could provide clearer guidance on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year . Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has increased significantly after receiving support from EMA21, which readers noticed in previous publications. However, the gains were limited by the price channel with an important resistance level noted at 2,366USD. In the short term, if gold breaks and rises above the $2,366 technical level it will be eligible for further upside with confirmation of a bearish channel being broken above. This means that open short positions should be reasonably protected behind the $2,366 level. On the other hand, at the time this publication was being completed, gold was still trending down from the price channel, with a new downtrend to be opened if gold managed to fall below the EMA21, confirmed by a drop below 2,330USD level, then the target level is noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci point. In the short term, gold still tends to decrease in price and the bullish case is noted by readers above. Below are the notable technical levels for the day. Support: 2,335 – 2,330USD Resistance: 2,360 – 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2397 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2381 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2321 - 2323 ⚰️SL: 2317 ⬆️TP1: 2328 ⬆️TP2: 2333
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD’s recent period of consolidationGold ended the week higher after a late rally on Thursday and Friday. It had initially pulled back from its all-time high due to trendline resistance. The precious metal is expected to react to the latest US inflation data, which affects Treasury yields, interest rate expectations, and the US dollar. Gold bulls are hopeful that softer CPI data will drive the metal higher and test the all-time high. Gold broke its recent consolidation period, surpassing the resistance at $2,340/oz. Buyers pushed the price to a three-week high on Friday, and gold opened above the 20-day moving average. If it can stay above this level, further gains are expected. The ongoing situation in the Middle East may also contribute to increased demand for gold. In the near future, the trend of gold price is still being noticed by the falling price channel but it also has technical conditions to increase the price, but with the closing price position as shown in the chart, gold can still decrease. adjusted to test the EMA21 and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,335 – 2,330 – 2,305USD Resistance: 2,366 – 2,378USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2397 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2381 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2341
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
AUDUSD's long-term bearish trend may eventually fadeAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Q2 FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK The Australian Dollar has been weak against the US Dollar in recent years, including 2024. However, there may be some positive news for Australian currency bulls, mainly due to weakness in the US Dollar rather than strong economic performance in Australia. Rising US interest rates and the safe-haven status of the Greenback have negatively impacted the Australian Dollar. Despite the Australian economy performing better than some Western peers during difficult times, this is not reflected in the AUD/USD chart. The US Federal Reserve is confident that interest rates will decrease this year, which has caused the value of the US dollar to decline. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar has shown some improvement. Although Australian borrowing costs are currently high, the Reserve Bank of Australia is hesitant to make any changes until they are certain that inflation will reach their target range. The recent inflation numbers in Australia were lower than last year's peak but still above the RBA's mandate. Therefore, with the possibility of lower US rates and unchanged rates in Australia, the Australian Dollar is expected to receive some support. Relations between Australia and China show signs of improving, but there are limits to this due to Australia's involvement in the 'AUKUS' defense arrangement with the United States and Britain, which China opposes. SIGNIFICANT AUD GAINS MAY HAVE TO WAIT The Aussie may receive support from a weaker Dollar and a less risk-averse market. The full effect may be seen later this year with expected Fed rate cuts. Australian banks predict AUD/USD to be above 0.70 by the end of 2024. If US inflation allows for planned Fed cuts, the Australian Dollar could stabilize and potentially rise cautiously. The view that US rates will decrease may face risks. The length of time it takes for rates to go down could be longer than expected. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to decrease risk appetite, even without any other issues arising. Additionally, the currency has been declining against the US Dollar since early 2021, and any increases this year are unlikely to reverse that trend.
by Xayah_trading
4
EURUSD pushed higher on ThursdayEURUSD pushed higher on Thursday after bouncing off technical support at 1.0725, with prices challenging a key ceiling near 1.0790, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages intersect. If this barrier fails to contain buyers, the next stop is likely to be trendline resistance at 1.0810. On further strength, we could see a move towards a major Fibonacci threshold at 1.0865. Conversely, should the market undergo a reversal and pullback, initial support emerges at 1.0725, followed by 1.0695. Vigorous defense of this floor is crucial for bulls to stave off a more significant drop; failure to do so could pave the way for a descent towards 1.0645. Subsequent losses may bring into play the April lows at 1.0600.
by Xayah_trading
The Middle East is hot again, GOLD skyrocketedOANDA:XAUUSD jumped as weak US initial jobless claims data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the US dollar, along with tensions. New tensions in the Middle East attract risk haven demand. Data released by the United States on Thursday showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased by 22,000 in the week of May 4 to 231,000, the highest level since late August last year and higher than US expectations. economists are 215,000. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US is higher than expected and previous reports, showing that the economy is losing momentum. This could influence the Fed's future monetary policy decisions as they acknowledge that they are focused on a dual mandate (full employment and inflation.) San Francisco Fed President Daly said Thursday that the Fed would consider cutting interest rates if the job market worsens. Interest rates are currently holding back the economy, but it may take "longer time" to bring inflation back to target. Israel said on May 9 that ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip in the Egyptian capital Cairo had broken down and the Israeli army would continue to attack in the city of Rafah, southern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials also said the Israeli delegation left Cairo that day. According to reports from Egypt's Cairo News TV channel on May 9, negotiators from Hamas, Israel, Qatar and the US left Egypt that day after ceasefire negotiations in Gaza entered into. deadlock. According to a Reuters report on May 8, Hamas said on May 8 that it was not willing to make further concessions to Israel in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. On May 8, Israel continued to use tanks and warplanes to attack the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, and threatened to launch a large-scale attack on this city. . Their troops entered the city through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on the 7th, cutting off vital aid channels and the only exit for evacuating the wounded. In general, the fundamental picture is leaning towards the possibility of more support for gold prices, especially as the geopolitical situation has new escalation points. This causes shelter demand to cover the market and in all cases of widespread risk, gold is always chosen as the top shelter asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After a long period of accumulation, the gold price finally broke the accumulation triangle in yesterday's trading session, and it is worth noting that gold brought price activity back above the EMA21 level. In the short term, gold is still technically limited by the upper edge of the price channel and this is also the closest current resistance, noted at 2,366 USD. In case the price channel is broken, gold is eligible to continue to increase even more with the highest level at the all-time peak of 2,430 USD. Since the resistance at the upper channel edge is the most notable technical level currently, open short positions should be protected once this level is broken. On the other hand, if gold remains within the price channel, it is still likely to retest the $2,330 technical level in the short term. During the day, gold price is still in the downtrend price channel and technical levels will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,330USD Resistance: 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2366 - 2364 ⚰️SL: 2370 ⬆️TP1: 2359 ⬆️TP2: 2354 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2317 - 2319 ⚰️SL: 2313 ⬆️TP1: 2324 ⬆️TP2: 2329
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 13 - May 17]Gold prices surged to a three-week high of $2,375 an ounce on Friday due to weak U.S. economic data. The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence index fell to 67.4, lower than expectations. Additionally, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims, reaching the highest level since last August. Investors are now awaiting next week's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could greatly affect gold prices and the financial market overall. If inflation data released next week shows a slowdown, it could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Financial markets expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in September, which could increase the appeal of gold due to lower interest rates. Traders currently see a 25% chance of a 0.5% rate cut in July, rising to nearly 49% in September. Changes in these expectations could impact gold prices. Data from the CFTC shows a decrease in gold futures contracts in the week ending May 7. Financial data and economic events next week: - Tuesday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in Amsterdam, Netherlands; - Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), US retail sales, New York Fed Empire State Survey; - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. 📌Gold broke out of an accumulation triangle and has shown two days of significant increases on the daily chart. It surpassed EMA21 and the price channel edge, signaling a potential breakout. If it breaks the bearish channel and goes above $2,366, it could enter a bull run. To confirm bearish conditions, gold would need to fall below EMA21 and stay below $2,330. The current support level is $2,330. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price returns to around the 2320 barrier, and selling if the price rises around the 2400 barrier.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD enters accumulation when there is little fundamental impactThe story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lower than March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 64.8% from 55% before the report. However, the US Dollar has been boosted by recent hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Nir Kashkari, who said the Fed could continue to raise interest rates and set the stage for higher federal funds rates. if inflation does not continue its downward trend. This week's economic calendar will mainly focus on news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. In general, throughout this week there was no data or events of a very sudden nature, so gold is also less subject to fundamental impacts and is suitable for the current state of narrow range movement. Gold keeping its price activity below EMA21 gives it more room to fall. However, with the current market context, without many fundamental impacts, gold prices may continue to move in a narrow range and enter accumulation. The accumulation area is noticed by EMA21 and the Fibonacci 0.236% level, in which EMA21 is the resistance and Fibonacci 0.236% is the support. If gold falls below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the short-term target level being the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, even if price activity rises above the EMA21 level, gold price will still be limited by the 2,365 level and the upper edge of the price channel because the current technical trend is still down in the short term. During the day, gold has a technical outlook of moving sideways and accumulating with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291 ⚰️SL: 2285 ⬆️TP1: 2296 ⬆️TP2: 2301
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD accumulates and shrinks,the market lacks fundamental impactScarce U.S. economic data will keep investors focused on Federal Reserve officials in the week following last Friday's U.S. jobs report. Gold prices are trading around 2,312USD/oz after reaching a daily high yesterday of 2,321USD/oz. The story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lagging March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. "Lack of progress" in inflation has pushed back expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut from July to September. However, the market still expects three interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. in this year. The report said that the lack of progress since the beginning of this year means that it will take longer for Fed policymakers to believe that inflation is continuing to fall toward the 2% target. They expect 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE to be "near or below" 2% by the end of the year, in which case it would be "too late" to wait until after September to cut rates . This week's economic calendar will take a closer look at news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is generally still entering the stage of accumulating attention from readers in previous publications. However, gold prices are also becoming more narrowly accumulated as depicted by the green triangle on the chart. In terms of overall factors, gold prices are more likely to decline because the main trend has not changed, noticed by the short-term downward price channel and the latest pressure from the 21-day moving average EMA21. As long as the gold price remains below the EMA21, it still has enough room to fall in the short term. Meanwhile, gold could open a new bearish cycle if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level is aimed around the lower channel edge and upper channel edge, more likely to be the 0.382 Fibonacci level %. Temporarily, gold prices will continue to tend to accumulate without much macroeconomic impact on the market. But the technical conditions still favor the possibility of price reduction as mentioned above. During the day, notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2268 - 2270 ⚰️SL: 2264 ⬆️TP1: 2275 ⬆️TP2: 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Recovery from Fib0.236%, support and pressure factors for GOLDRisk appetite improved as bets increased that the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy sooner than expected. This comes after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy continued to create jobs, albeit at a slower pace. Basic support for OANDA:XAUUSD Market participants continue to digest the latest data from the United States as the April nonfarm payrolls report was weaker than expected. If the next inflation report is weaker than expected, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later in the year will be confirmed (certainly). Fundamental pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD The latest news comes from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. On May 6, Hamas issued a statement agreeing with the ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip proposed by mediators. This information has cooled the market's risk aversion, putting gold prices under pressure to adjust. Hamas said in a statement that Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh informed Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed and Egyptian General Intelligence Director Abbas Kamal about the decision by phone that day. An Israeli official said Israel received Hamas's response to Egypt's ceasefire and agreement to release detainees. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari issued a statement on May 6 saying that Hamas had accepted the ceasefire proposal mediated by Egypt. The Israeli side is carefully considering every content of the proposal and making every effort to promote related negotiations and "all possibilities" to release the detainees. At the same time, the Israeli army will continue military operations in the Gaza Strip. According to Cairo News TV on May 6, citing sources from the Egyptian intelligence agency, the Egyptian delegation responsible for mediating the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that day received a "positive response" from Hamas and Israel. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level but the upside recovery is also limited and is under pressure to react to the downside from the 21-day moving average EMA21. On the other hand, the short-term trend of gold price is still an uptrend from the price channel, as long as gold is still operating below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it still tends to be down in the short term. Currently, gold is technically at $2,322 and if it breaks below this level gold could continue to decline to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level once more. In case the gold price continues to sell off below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new bearish cycle with the maximum target level at the 0.382% Fibonacci level. During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices is noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,322 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2303 - 2305 ⚰️SL: 2299 ⬆️TP1: 2310 ⬆️TP2: 2315
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD still has the ability to recoverAfter the release of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data lower than market expectations, gold quickly increased in price, reaching 2,320 USD/ounce. However, this high level did not last long due to profit-taking pressure and gold quickly fell to close weekly at 2,301 USD/ounce. Although the easing cycle may be delayed, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made clear that interest rates will not go higher. “I think it's unlikely that the next policy change will be to raise interest rates,” Powell said at a news conference. I would say that is unlikely to happen.” Adding to gold's volatility was Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly less than expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth fell short of expectations. While the jobs report supported interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing up gold prices, uncertainty about timing continued to dominate market sentiment and investors were likely to Take advantage of the recovery to take profits. In the coming time, gold traders still need to pay attention to macro data and Fed speeches to have more data to guide their assessment of when the Fed will cut interest rates. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer and upbeat market sentiment have become key factors weakening safe-haven demand for gold. However, at the latest FOMC meeting the prospect of a less hawkish Fed led to widespread dollar weakness and helped limit gold's decline, so caution is warranted. A basic direction for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a price decrease. Data to watch out for is data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures fell by 9,018 contracts to 167,139 contracts for the week ends April 30. Next week, the market will also witness the sudden appearance of a number of central bank governors. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina; New York Fed President John William James will speak at a conference in California; and Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby will speak at the Minnesota Economic Club. Meanwhile, investors will focus on data on consumer confidence and inflation expectations later this week. Economic data to watch next week Wednesday: 10-year bond auction Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, 30-year bond auction Friday: Preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Last week, gold performed quite stably with a short-term bearish structure from the trend price channel. Stay within range with nearest support from 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and resistance at $2,322 in the short term and beyond at EMA21 and $2,345. Although the expected recovery at 2,365 USD continued to fail last week, maintaining above the original price level of 2,300 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level should be considered positive conditions for recovery expectations. continues to appear next week. As long as the bearish does not break below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has room to recover with a target level of around $2,365. However, in case the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it could cause the gold price to drop even more with a possible price drop to 2.223 or more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level. Therefore, if the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it is not advisable to open long positions, it is also time to protect open long positions around 2,284USD. The point of complete breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci level should be determined by price activity below the lower edge of the price channel. Next week, the prospect of a bullish recovery inside the price channel will be noticed again with the following technical levels. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,345 – 2,365USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Fed keeps interest rates, GOLD increases but limitedAfter the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth time and announced it would slow down the pace of balance sheet shrinkage, gold prices rose sharply above the $2,300/ounce mark and remained above this key price level. , and also achieved the target adjusted increase in publishing the previous issue sent to you. Market news and reviews The Federal Reserve is determined to achieve its 2% inflation target and kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth time in Wednesday's trading session. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference that cutting interest rates until they are confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target is inappropriate, adding that this year's inflation data “does not give us greater confidence.” They will decide monetary policy “meeting by meeting,” adding that slowing the pace of balance sheet contraction “will ensure a smooth transition in currency markets.” Powell added that the Fed believes monetary policy will be restrictive enough to contain inflation and ignored the possibility of raising interest rates when he made the call. The Federal Reserve has chosen to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. In their statement, they noted that the risks associated with achieving the Fed's dual mandate of focusing on employment and inflation have become more balanced over the past year. While acknowledging progress on inflation, they also acknowledged that recent data suggests progress has stalled. The prospect of interest rates remaining fundamentally high is bad news for gold because it increases the opportunity cost of investing in gold. However, the following news is considered the FOMC's mark when Powell said that the next step is unlikely to be raising interest rates, which also makes this press conference much less hawkish than market expectations, at least Most interest rate increases are not considered. This statement caused the Dollar to plummet and stimulated gold prices to skyrocket. Additionally, Federal Reserve policymakers announced major changes to their balance sheet policy. Starting in June, they reduced their monthly holdings of U.S. Treasuries from $60 billion to $25 billion, marking a change in their approach to balance sheet normalization. Macro data ADP Jobs Change reported an increase of 192,000 jobs in April, beating estimates of 175,000 but still falling short of March's upwardly revised figure of 208,000. Additionally, JOLTS job openings fell to 8.488 million in March, the lowest level of job openings in the report, down from 8.813 million. US economic data continues to be mixed. Last week, gross domestic product (GDP) did not meet expectations. However, inflation data tied to the first quarter of 2024 is sounding the alarm that price trends are on the rise, which could prevent the Fed from easing policy sooner than expected. On May 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release nonfarm payrolls data for April, which is expected to be 243,000, down from 303,000 in March. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 3.8%, while average hourly earnings are likely to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-over-month. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold received support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level highlighted by readers in the previous issue, it rose to reach its target recovery level of around $2,322, along with With that, it is also limited by the technical level of 2,322 USD and maintaining price activity below EMA21. The current price position still does not bring many positive technical prospects as gold is still in a short-term falling price channel and under main pressure from EMA21, more consistent with a short-term bearish outlook. Overall, recovery expectations are complete and over, then in terms of the technical picture, gold has more chances to fall than to rise. As long as gold remains below the EMA21, it will remain under pressure in the short term, with price activity returning below the $2,322 level opening the way for gold prices to fall back to the 0.236% Fibonacci level. For gold prices to increase more, it is important for it to break above EMA21, then the target level is around 2,365 USD in the short term. During the day, gold's technical outlook leans bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,322 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2343 - 2341 ⚰️SL: 2347 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2331 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Looking ahead to NFP, GOLD's technical structure remains stableOANDA:XAUUSD is still trying to operate above its $2,300 base price after Thursday's wild swings, with the market focusing particularly on non-farm payrolls data to be released on this trading day. ADP jobs data exceeded expectations in April and March data was revised upward, suggesting the US labor market remains strong and stable. The US ADP jobs report released on Wednesday showed that US ADP employment increased by 192,000 in April, above expectations of 180,000. The value before March was revised up from 184,000 to 208,000. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 208,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 27, compared with expectations of 212,000 and a previous figure of 207,000. The gold market's focus has shifted to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will provide the latest data for the market to further assess the state of the US labor market and the outlook for employment. monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Surveys show the U.S. nonfarm working population is expected to increase by 243,000 in April after seasonal adjustments, compared with a gain of 303,000 in March. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% in April. Investors will also be watching data on wages and workforce participation. The survey found that average hourly wages in the United States in April are expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 4.0% annually. The US labor force participation rate in April is expected to be unchanged at 62.7%. If Nonfarm Payrolls data is weaker than expected, or just as weak, this should be seen as a positive for gold prices as it will resonate with the Fed's less hawkish stance during the meeting. The recent FOMC made the US Dollar less attractive and boosted precious metals. On the gold price technical chart, after gold reached the technical level of 2,322 USD, it was under pressure to fall again but the temporary decline is also limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. In terms of technical structure, not much has changed compared to yesterday's issue, so readers can check back here. Notable prices are also listed as follows. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2321 - 2319 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2314 ⬆️TP2: 2309 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Fib level 2.618%, GOLD is under pressure before the FOMC meetingOANDA:XAUUSD spot faced strong selling pressure and fell to a one-week low ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell for the third straight month in April, falling to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Pessimism prevails ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged amid lingering signs of inflationary pressures. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer and send a hawkish message. Gold investors' attention turns to FOMC and Nonfarm Payrolls The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is about a 91.6% chance that the Fed will choose to leave policy unchanged again in June. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April jobs report. A sharp decline in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) growth could cause an immediate dollar sell-off . Even if the data doesn't have a very profound impact on expectations for a rate cut in June, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 53.3% chance that the Fed's policy rate will be unchanged in September. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data is stronger than expected, especially if it goes coupled with higher wage inflation data, could increase expectations that the Fed will take no action in September and cause gold prices to fall sharply this weekend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold fell sharply in yesterday's trading session after breaking the $2,322 level and now this technical level becomes the closest current resistance. Along with that, gold is also stopping its decline when approaching the 2.618% Fibonacci extension level, and this is also the current closest support level. If gold continues to sell off breaking below the 2.618% Fibonacci extension it will likely experience further selling pressure with no chance of a recovery towards the upper channel edge and beyond the 3.618 Fibonacci level. %. Therefore, for protection levels open long positions should be installed behind the 2.618% Fibonacci extension level. On the other hand, the fact that gold still holds above the Fibonacci retracement level still "raises hope" for those who opened long positions to see a recovery to retest the level of 2,322 USD. However, currently, in the short term, gold does not have enough conditions to increase in price as price activity is in a short-term downtrend from the price channel and price activity is below EMA21. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,300 – 2,322USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2326 - 2324 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2319 ⬆️TP2: 2314 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD rises after US PMI shockEURO ( OANDA:EURUSD ) ANALYSIS - Flash PMI data provides unflattering US outlook, Europe improves - EURUSD rises after US PMI shock FLASH PMI DATA PROVIDES UNFLATTERING US OUTLOOK, EUROPE IMPROVES German and EU manufacturing remains depressed but encouraging rises in flash services PMI results suggest improvement in Europe. UK manufacturing slumped well into contraction but also benefitted from another rise on the services front. It was the US that provided the most surprising numbers, witnessing a decline in services PMI and a drop into contractionary territory for manufacturing – weighing on the dollar. OANDA:EURUSD RISES AFTER US PMI SHOCK EURUSD reacted to lackluster flash PMI data in the US by covering recent losses. The euro attempted to break above the 1.0700 level after recovering from the oversold zone around the 1.0600 low. The pair has maintained a longer-term downtrend reflecting the different monetary policy stances adopted by the ECB and the Fed. A strong labor market, robust growth and rising inflation have forced the Fed to delay plans to cut interest rates, which has strengthened the dollar against G7 currencies. Surprising US PMI data suggests the economy may not be as strong as initially predicted and some weakness could emerge. However, it will take more than one quick data point to reverse the story. If the bulls take control from here, 1.07645 becomes the next interesting upside level, followed by 1.0800 where the 200 SMA lies. On the other hand, 1.06437 and 1.0600 remain support levels. Interesting support if the long-term trend continues.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD bounced back on MondayAfter a subdued performance late last week, the EUR/USD bounced back on Monday, challenging overhead resistance at 1.0725. A successful clearance of this technical barrier could pave the way for a move towards 1.0755. Further strength from this point onwards would shift focus to the 1.0800 handle, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge. In the event of a market retracement, support is expected near the psychological level of 1.0700, followed by April’s swing lows around 1.0600. Prices are likely to establish a base in this region during a pullback ahead of a possible turnaround. However, if a breakdown occurs, the possibility of a rebound diminishes, as this move could lead to a drop towards the 2023 trough at 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
2
Eyes on Fed, GOLD in narrow range with bearish conditionsMarket attention turns to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on May 1 and upcoming nonfarm payrolls data. Data released last week showed US gross domestic product fell short of target, while the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, stagnated at growth of 2.8% year-on-year for the second consecutive month. Key data due for release this week include European inflation and US labor market indicators, while the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a two-day meeting on Tuesday and Friday. is expected to keep the basic interest rate unchanged but with a hawkish tone. The last time Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke, he said policymakers would likely keep borrowing costs high for longer than previously expected, citing a lack of progress in inflation falls and the labor market continues to be strong. Despite the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts, gold prices are still up more than 13% this year and reached a record high earlier this month. The rise in precious metals prices over the past two months has been linked to central bank buying, strong demand in Asian markets, especially China, and rising geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The current gold price range is still quite narrow and has not changed much compared to what was published in the weekly issue published on Sunday. Technical conditions remain bullish in the short term with the closest support coming from the EMA21 level and the $2,322 technical point followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. A more negative case for gold prices can only be clearly seen when it sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, at which point the target level could reach the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382 Fibonacci level. % in short term. So, for open buy positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, gold holding above the EMA21 level will be a necessary condition to continue aiming for the short-term targets of 2,345 USD and more to the level of 2,365 USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bearish with the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,315 - 2,284USD Resistance: 2,345 - 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD stabilizes above EMA21 supportOANDA:XAUUSD market could see more volatility next week on news from the Federal Reserve and is expected to signal that it will not be ready to cut interest rates in June. Although expectations of loosening policy by the US Federal Reserve are fading, gold prices have also increased about 17% since February this year. Gold's strong performance is linked to central bank buying, and volatile geopolitical tensions. New inflation data reinforces the view that high interest rates are here to stay for now. The Fed's preferred gauge of core inflation, U.S. PCE data rose 0.3% in March and rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Figures from the beginning of this year were also adjusted slightly upward. Worrying inflation data for three straight months suggests progress towards the central bank's 2% target has stalled and suggests the first round of interest rate cuts will continue to be delayed. Investors are expecting one or two rate cuts this year starting in November, but concerns are growing that the Fed may not reduce borrowing costs by 2024. Fed policy decisions and US nonfarm data will be the macro focus next week Next Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its April jobs report. If U.S. nonfarm payroll growth slows significantly to below 200,000, that could trigger a sell off the US Dollar and cause an immediate positive reaction to gold prices. If nonfarm payroll growth is stronger than expected, especially if wage inflation data is hot, that could increase market expectations that the Fed will not act in September and put gold on the back foot. under pressure to reduce prices. Even if the data does not have a significant impact on expectations for a June rate cut, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the probability of the Fed keeping policy rates unchanged in September to be 42.6%. Investors should also pay attention to other data including US ADP and the Fed's Monetary Policy Decision due on Wednesday, and Jobless Claims on Thursday. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: ADP nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS vacancies, Fed monetary policy decision Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NDP), ISM Services PMI, US April Unemployment Rate Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered after a period of sudden correction, taking support from the EMA21 level and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Note to readers in last week's weekly issue and currently gold is also active at The position is quite positive, above the EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,322USD. Maintaining activity above the EMA21 level opens up the possibility of gold continuing to recover with last week's target at $2,365 still not achieved. Currently, the gold price still has all the technical conditions for a possible increase in price with main support at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. However, gold will also face the possibility of further declines once it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside target level could then reach the upper edge of the price channel, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, if long, open long positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Gold has a technical outlook that favors the possibility of an increase in gold prices. The technical levels will be noted and listed as follows. Support: 2,322 – 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,345 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GDP and PCE will be two important data for GOLD price trendsThe US Dollar Index is entering accumulation and recovering after 2 days of decline, making gold priced in US Dollars less attractive thanks to direct correlation. The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as tensions in the Middle East ease and safe-haven demand weakens. The gold market has been less affected by the escalating conflict in the Middle East as developments have cooled down. What the market is interested in as well as the current trading question is whether this correction in gold prices will create a long-term downtrend, or simply a short-term decline. Directions and clues about the answer keep the market focused on the Fed and economic data. If inflation data continues to show stubborn, hot inflation could push the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. Originally, the interest rate cut time had been pushed back by the market to September, previously expected to be June. This is not beneficial for gold, an asset that does not yield any yield. First-quarter GDP and core inflation will provide additional data on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on (today) Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released on Friday. US core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise at a solid 0.3%, with the annual index falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in the month Two. Gold prices could face a sharp sell-off if core inflation data comes in higher than expected. Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates starting at its September meeting. Further signs of sustained price pressure will allow the Fed to maintain its stance of keeping interest rates on hold. at current levels over the long term. Theoretically, this scenario bodes well for the US dollar and US bond yields, while reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to maintain activity above the EMA21 level, and despite the recovery from the 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels presented to readers in previous issues, the The recovery levels were quickly defeated and entered a state of accumulation. Temporarily, the market has not shown any signs of sudden changes to open a new trend structure, while technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with support from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236. % as key support levels. If gold holds above $2,322 it will be a positive and the target level is then aimed at $2,334, more so than $2,365. On the other hand, a further bearish cycle will be unleashed once gold sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, so protection levels for open long positions should be protected below the 0.236% Fibonacci level. %. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains supportive of upside with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,334 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2342 - 2340 ⚰️SL: 2346 ⬆️TP1: 2335 ⬆️TP2: 2330 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, GOLD trend conditionsUS GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 was lower than expected, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce borrowing costs. However, inflation has risen sharply over the same period, which will delay the Fed's interest rate cuts. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, below forecasts. 2.4% growth by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was adjusted from 3.4% to 3.9%. Other data showed that the initial value of the US core PCE price index in the first quarter after seasonal adjustment was 3.7%, the estimate was 3.4% and the previous value was 2 .0%. The geopolitical situation also supports gold prices. The Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation reported on April 25 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan to conduct ground operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. In addition, after a two-week lull, Houthi forces launched attacks on US cargo ships and naval vessels. -According to Zerohedg- For gold, this price gain comes after a nearly 3% drop this week as markets downgraded assessments of rising tensions in the Middle East. Fed officials last week including Chairman Jerome Powell agreed, saying: "Recent data shows no further progress in inflation this year." Currently, as tensions in the Middle East gradually ease, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak in the short term. Looking ahead, the market will focus on March's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, which will guide the next move of gold prices. If PCE inflation is higher than expected, it will signal pressure on gold prices and it is possible that gold will continue to sell off, while if PCE inflation continues to shrink, lower will be an important support for gold. with gold prices because it helps the case of the Fed cutting interest rates soon become more open. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the key support area that readers noticed throughout recent publications with key support from the EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels produced bullish corrections and currently the price action position is also more positive for gold prices with price activity above EMA21 and the 2,322 USD technical point. However, for gold to continue to rise further it needs to break the $2,334 technical level to operate above this level and then target around $2,365, which is also the target bullish recovery level. weekly attention in weekly issue publication. Gold can only become more negative if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside could then reach the upper channel edge and more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level, so open long positions should be protection behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level and if this level is broken it means losing ground to buy. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still tilted towards the possibility of price increases with the following technical levels being noticed again. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2349 - 2347 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2337 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD recovers from key support areaOANDA:XAUUSD stabilized after hitting a more than two-week low as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East subsided, while investors await key economic data to further clarify the timing of US interest rate cuts. America. Israel stepped up its attacks on the Gaza Strip, its worst shelling in weeks, but fears of a wider conflict eased after Iran said last week it had no plans to retaliate for the attack. apparent Israeli drone strike, financial markets showed signs of increased risk appetite and sold off safe-haven assets. Markets are also paying attention to signals from the United States, with US inflation data and a Federal Reserve statement suggesting that there may not be an interest rate cut in June. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest there is no need to cut interest rates immediately, reducing the appeal of zero-coupon gold. Markets now expect the Fed's first rate cut will most likely come in September. Markets will closely monitor US GDP data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday for further insight into the US economy and timing. In previous trading, the S&P Global PMI was weaker than expected, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. This month, the manufacturing PMI index fell from 51.9 to 49.9. On the other hand, both the services and composite numbers fell to 50.9 from 51.7 and 52.1. According to the US Department of Commerce, other data for new home sales increased the most in six months, as building permits remained at a narrow level despite an upward revision of -3.7%. from -4.3%. The data helps gold prices recover but in general PMI data is not a data that can be used to guide the market so it will only work in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold fell sharply and gained support from an important technical area for a medium-term uptrend sent to readers throughout the publication at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21, it had the most recovery. stable and currently trying to hold above the $2,322 level. $2,322 is also a key technical level and if gold holds above it will likely continue to recover towards another key technical level of $2,365. Currently, technically speaking, gold still has all positive conditions with a medium-term trend from EMA21 and a long-term trend from the price channel. Meanwhile, the negative (bearish) case could widen further if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is broken below and the target level then targets the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. . This means the protection levels for open long positions should be placed just behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading