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Get ready for big data, GOLD rises to retest 2,364USDOANDA:XAUUSD is mostly flat as the market awaits important news from US non-farm data to be released today (Friday). Fed rate cut expectations are based on this data. At the same time, affected by the US holiday, market trading volume decreased and gold prices found it difficult to maintain Wednesday's gains, fluctuating in a narrow range but still above 2,350 USD/ounce. Recent U.S. economic data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin easing policy sooner than expected, but policymakers remain cautious and want to see deflation progress. further development. Data released by the US showed initial jobless claims last week and ADP data showed private hiring activity fell in June compared to May. Additionally, US PMI data ISM service industry shows that business activities in the service industry have fallen into a decline zone. Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said deflation had resumed but emphasized that more progress was needed before interest rate cuts could be considered. He added: “Because the American economy is strong and the labor market is strong, we can take our time and get the job done.” At the same time, the US Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its June meeting showing that most participants believe that current policy is very restrictive but leaves the door open for interest rate hikes. Policymakers acknowledge that the economy is cooling and could respond to unexpected economic weakness. Today (Friday), the United States will release its nonfarm payrolls report for June, which is expected to show that the US labor market added 190,000 jobs, down from 272,000 in May. Of course, if NFP data declines, it will be beneficial for gold because it increases the possibility that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, making the US Dollar less attractive. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, unchanged from the previous figure, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.1 %. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 72% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, up from 63% on Tuesday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold was limited by the $2,364 level that readers noticed in the previous issue, it is now rising to test this important technical level. In the short term, once gold breaks $2,364 it will have room to continue rising with a target then noted at the original price point of $2,400. On the other hand, on the overall technical chart, gold still has all the technical factors for a possible price increase. With the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci point and main support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The relative strength index (RSI) is gradually moving up but is still very far from the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is still very wide. During the day, the technical trend leans heavily towards the possibility of an increase in the price of gold and it will be noticed by the following points. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392 ⚰️SL: 2398 ⬆️TP1: 2387 ⬆️TP2: 2382 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2341 ⬆️TP2: 2346
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD slight correction after reaching 2,364 USDOANDA:XAUUSD rallied sharply to test the $2,364 technical level as US economic data performed worse than expected, pressuring the dollar and driving gold prices higher. In addition, tensions in the Middle East showing signs of increasing also stimulate money flows into safe haven assets, and gold is the top choice. Economic data released by the United States was weaker than expected, increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business activity in the US services sector softened after reaching its highest level since August 2023. Along with a rise in the number of Americans filing Jobless claims and hiring by private companies were lower than expected, and employment data weakened, prompting markets to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Data released Wednesday showed that in the week ended June 29, adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States were 238,000, above market expectations of 234,000. In the week ending June 22, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits after adjustment in the US was 1.858 million people, higher than market expectations and setting a new high since November. 2021. The ADP jobs report showed private sector employment rose by 150,000 in June, falling for the third straight month and hitting a new low since January, below the 163,000 expected by economists. forecast. Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed officials at the June policy meeting had differing views on how long interest rates should remain high. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate meeting that ended June 12 showed that while "some" officials emphasized the need for patience, "some" participants especially noting that continued weakness in the job market could lead to higher unemployment rates. According to the minutes, officials reiterated that a rate cut would not be appropriate until more data reinforced their belief that inflation was on target. Despite recent signs that some progress has been made in fighting inflation, some policymakers maintain a willingness to raise interest rates if inflation remains high. Traders' attention turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report as US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. Geopolitical risks Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on July 3 saying at least 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon announced a missile attack in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon that day that killed a senior commander of the organization. The Israeli army issued a statement early on the morning of July 3 confirming that Nasser, a core figure of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after increasing in price to reach 2,364 USD, please note that in yesterday's publication, gold is temporarily limited by this level, which is also the target price increase that For gold to open a new bullish cycle it needs to break the technical level of 2,364 USD. Although the upward momentum of gold prices is limited, the overall picture still shows that gold prices have all the conditions to increase in price with major support except the EMA21 moving average and the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. . As long as gold maintains its price performance above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook in the short term, and once it breaks the $2,364 technical point, gold has the potential to resume its uptrend at the target level. Initial spending is about 2,400 USD. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392 ⚰️SL: 2398 ⬆️TP1: 2387 ⬆️TP2: 2382 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2341 ⬆️TP2: 2346
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD pays attention to the main focus of the marketOANDA:XAUUSD remained generally stable as markets received information from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and continued to look to US jobs data later this week for further signals on the state of the US economy. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that there were 8.14 million job openings on January 1. Last work of May. This is a significant increase compared to April's 7.9 million (adjusted to 8.05 million) and exceeds the market forecast of 7.9 million. Key points from Powell's speech included his mention that wage growth is falling back to more sustainable levels, a sign that the labor market is cooling. Additionally, he added that inflation could return to 2% by the end of next year or the year after that, suggesting inflation will be lower than expected. However, he reiterated that he hopes to see more progress before being confident enough to start cutting interest rates. "Services inflation has generally stabilized and wage growth is returning to more sustainable levels," he said. "Wage growth remains above equilibrium and the labor market is cooling. Inflation has will probably return at the end of next year or early next year to 2%. The focus now turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will be crucial in assessing whether the US labor market remains strong amid the highest interest rates in decades. century or not. However, data due today (Wednesday) will also have an impact on the markets, including the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as the purchasing managers index. services (PMI) from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trading quite stable around the EMA21 moving average, and the market still needs a fundamental impact large enough to break the current situation and give a clear trend cycle. Technically, although gold is currently above EMA21, its ability to increase in price is limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold will have enough conditions to increase technically if it breaks the price channel and stays above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level will be aimed at 2,364USD in the short term. On the other hand, once gold continues to be sold below EMA21 and below the technical point of 2,324 USD, it will tend to continue to decrease with a target level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD in the short term. The relative strength index is completely flat, showing hesitation and the market has not found a specific trend. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is showing that the main trend is sideways accumulation with the above conditions for an increase and decrease. In the accumulation phase of the market, short-term open positions are always given priority. Technical positions will be given attention again as follows, Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2354 - 2352 ⚰️SL: 2358 ⬆️TP1: 2347 ⬆️TP2: 2342 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304 ⚰️SL: 2298 ⬆️TP1: 2309 ⬆️TP2: 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD comments at the beginning of the weekCable had a volatile week, driven almost entirely by top tier US data (US CPI, FOMC forecasts). The welcomed inflation data on Wednesday and subsequent rise in the pair was pulled back a few hours later with more hawkish revisions to the inflation outlook. Since then FX markets have prioritized the hawkish projections over the encouraging inflation data – the reverse of what has been seen in the US stock market as major indices achieved new all time highs. Continued progress in inflation and a more dovish BoE could extend the current move lower, towards 1.2585 and possibly even the 200 SMA.
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers, supported by data, key trends, PCE eyes onAs weak economic data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year, putting pressure on the USD, spot gold increased sharply by nearly 30 USD in yesterday's trading session. Today (Friday), investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to set the market trend. Some published data has supported the gold market. Essentially, wholesale inventories were lower than expected and the final GDP value fell significantly, dragging down the US Dollar index, thus boosting gold prices. • US quarterly GDP growth in the first quarter was revised slightly to 1.4%, but remained below the 3.4% in the last three months of 2023. GDP report also showed weakness in consumer spending. US consumption growth was adjusted down to 1.5% compared to the previous forecast of 2%. • Data released Thursday also showed initial unemployment claims fell to 233,000 in the week ended June 22. However, in the week ending June 15, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased by 18,000 to 1.839 million, the highest level since late 2021. US PCE inflation data is about to be published At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for May will be released, which could reveal the path of interest rates of the Fed. Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to be flat month-on-month in May, after rising 0.3% in April. The US PCE price index is expected to rise at a monthly pace. year-on-year was 2.6% in May, following a 2.7% increase in April. In terms of more important core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in May is expected to increase 0.1% monthly, following a 0.2% increase in April; increased at an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with a 2.8% increase the previous month. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers. The upcoming US core PCE price index for May will act as a short-term catalyst for market trends in general and the gold market in particular. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached levels around the 2,305 – 2,300 USD area it recovered and increased again but is currently still limited by the confluence area of ​​EMA21, the upper edge of the price channel and the technical 2,324USD. Considering the overall technical picture, although the gold price has recovered, it still does not have enough conditions to increase further. The condition for the gold price to continue to recover and increase is that it needs to move up. above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and then the target level can be noticed at 2,365USD in the short term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold does not show further price increases, but instead technical conditions are still supporting a downtrend from the price channel. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2343 - 2341 ⚰️SL: 2347 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2331 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304 ⚰️SL: 2298 ⬆️TP1: 2309 ⬆️TP2: 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD will continue to accumulate in the coming sessionsWorld gold prices decreased significantly in the trading session on Friday (June 28), after US statistics showed that inflation continued to deescalate and was in line with forecasts, reinforcing the possibility that the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in September. Many experts predict that gold prices will continue to accumulate in the coming sessions, with the possibility of breaking out of the 2,300-2,350 USD/oz range in the short term. short. Although the US Dollar index (DXY) remained stable during the day, gold prices still increased. US macro data released yesterday and tensions in the Middle East are supporting gold prices. On the evening of June 27 local time, air defense sirens sounded across a large area in northern Israel. The Israeli army said the northern region of the country was attacked by about 35 rockets from Lebanon. Israel's air defense system blocked most of the missiles. The Israeli army said the attack caused no casualties among local people. However, the attack caused fires in two northern areas. Since the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Palestinians and Israelis on October 7 last year, Hezbollah in Lebanon has occasionally carried out attacks in northern Israel, and the Israeli military has retaliated with airstrikes. bombardment and shelling of targets in southern Lebanon. A large number of residents in the northern border area have been evacuated. The conflict continued to escalate this month. On June 6, the Israeli Northern Command announced that it had completed the deployment of forces to conduct a large-scale attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On June 11, Lebanese Hezbollah commander Talib Abdullah was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Hezbollah then launched a large-scale rocket attack on Israel. Follow the US elections After the first televised debate of the US presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's approval rating significantly surpassed that of incumbent President Biden. During the debate, Biden often looked away when Trump spoke and Biden's statements were also quite weak. Some information said Biden had a cold.😁 The impact of the US presidential debate on the market has so far been limited. Although the US dollar's rise is in line with Trump's comments that he could increase trade tensions and concerns about fiscal extravagance. However, the increase in USD price seems to be more related to economic factors announced in US macro data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 01 - July 05]OANDA:XAUUSD today closed weekly at 2,326 USD/ounce. It had previously hit a high of $2,339 when the US PCE inflation data was released. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.01% at $2,336/ounce, with a cumulative gain of 12.8% in the first half of the year. Gold is currently quite neutral fundamentally, but looking at the overall picture, inflation will not disappear and geopolitical tensions will not subside, which will be important positive supports for gold prices. Previously, the core US personal consumption expenditure index showed moderate rising inflationary pressures, in line with expectations. Over the past 12 months, the Fed's inflation index has increased 2.6%, the lowest annual increase in more than three years. Although inflation has yet to reach the Fed's 2% target, it may be close enough to signal a rate cut in September. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders now see about a 64.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is also a member of the 2024 FOMC, said the latest inflation figures were “good news that policy is working.” It's also worth noting that data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week to June 25, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts decreased by 4,823 lots. Data outlook next week Independence Day will give next week's economic data a break. On Monday, markets will get the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, followed by preliminary Eurozone CPI data and JOLTS job hiring data on Tuesday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at the central bank meeting in Portugal. Next Wednesday, the market will focus on the ADP jobs report, weekly unemployment benefits data and the ISM services purchasing managers index, as well as the June FOMC meeting minutes. After the July 4 holiday, US traders will receive the June nonfarm payrolls report on Friday Notable economic data Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday: Eurozone CPI estimates, JOLTS vacancies, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at Bank of Portugal meeting Wednesday: ADP employment data, weekly jobless claims, ISM services PMI; FOMC June meeting minutes; Friday: US nonfarm payrolls report Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of ​​the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD. Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart. In the near term, if gold continues to be sold below 2,324 USD it will provide conditions for further declines with the target level then being around 2,305 – 2,300 USD. In case the $2,300 raw price breaks below, a new bearish cycle could be opened with a short-term target of $2,286 and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as gold cannot move above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, in terms of overall technicality, the gold price technical chart is not inclined to an upward trend. The technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be selling around 2360 and buying around 2268.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD moves sideways awaiting significant fundamental impactOANDA:XAUUSD closed Monday's session higher but still limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Currently price activity hovers around the EMA21 level as investors turn their attention to US jobs data due out later this week, which could provide further clues about a rate cut of the Federal Reserve. U.S. manufacturing activity fell for a third straight month in June as demand for goods weakened and a gauge of factory input prices fell to a six-month low, suggesting inflation may continue to ease. This week, the market will focus on today's (Tuesday) speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the minutes of the central bank's latest policy meeting on Wednesday and non-payroll data. US agriculture on Friday. US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. The market currently expects a 64% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and make gold more attractive. should be more attractive than holding US Dollar. OANDA:XAUUSD is keeping price activity around the EMA21 level, however, staying above the EMA21 level is a good sign for gold prices as the current $2,324 technical point is also acting as another support. compatible with EMA21. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still moving sideways without a clear trend. If the RSI bends and points up, it will be a signal that there is still a lot of room for price growth. The 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is also currently the resistance that limits the upside potential of gold prices. Once gold breaks this Fibonacci level, which can be confirmed by the $2,345 level, it has all the technical elements. needed for a new bullish cycle with a short-term target around 2,364USD. With current largely sideways price activity, gold will need significant impact from fundamentals to create technical direction. During the day, the trend of gold price is still moving sideways around the EMA21 level, and the price points will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,338 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has dropped to its lowest level in 2 weeksOANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest in more than two weeks, weighed down by strength in the US dollar and rising bond yields, while traders looked ahead to US inflation data due later in the week. This According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 89.7% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 37.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5 .5%. The focus this week will be on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure that could provide guidance on interest rates. If the result is lower than expectations, the Fed is likely to An early federal interest rate cut will increase and support gold prices. The opposite is true if inflation increases. Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD outlook As sent to readers in yesterday morning's edition, gold currently has bearish conditions after the recovery momentum was defeated. Gold has fallen rapidly again and the price has dropped below the price point of 2,300 USD. With current price activity, gold is still leaning towards price possibilities with the main pressure from EMA21 and the current main trend being noticed at the trendline. As long as the rallies fail to take gold prices above the $2,340 technical level, price increases should only be considered short-term corrections and not an uptrend. In the short term, with current price activity, gold is likely to continue to test the $2,286 price level rather than the $2,282 price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. The intraday trend of gold price is a downtrend and is noted as follows. Support: 2,286 – 2,273USD Resistance: 2,300 – 2,306 – 2,324USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2322 - 2320 ⚰️SL: 2326 ⬆️TP1: 2315 ⬆️TP2: 2310 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2269 - 2271 ⚰️SL: 2265 ⬆️TP1: 2276 ⬆️TP2: 2281
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]On Friday (June 21), when data released by S&P Global showed that US PMI data for June were generally better than expected, the US Dollar strengthened and spot gold plummeted more than 38 USD. Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $2,321.64/ounce; Spot gold prices decreased 0.47% this week, with a total trading range between 2,368.74 and 2,306.68 USD. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.45% at $2,373.80/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed down 4.03 U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The US Dollar Index (Dxy), closed up 0.16% at 105.83 on Friday. • Data released on Friday showed the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI U.S. prelim was 51.7, the forecast was 51 and the previous was 51.3. • The initial value of services PMI is 55.1, the expected value is 53.7 and the previous value is 54.8. • The initial comprehensive PMI value is 54.6, the expected value is 53.5 and the previous value is 54.5. This is the highest level since April 2022, following May's 54.5. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.9% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, little changed from late Thursday. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and this supports gold prices. Market uncertainty remains extremely high as markets try to guess the Fed's next move. About the Fed this past week Several Fed officials spoke during the past trading week, with many emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week. • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target, but estimated it could take 1 - 2 years. • Chicago Fed President Goolsby said Thursday that policymakers will be able to cut interest rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. In an interview Thursday, Goolsby talked about the May consumer prices report, which showed core inflation fell for the second straight month. • Fed Governor Coogler said Tuesday that it could be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates "later this year" if economic conditions develop as she expects. • St. Fed President Louis Mussallem said in his first major policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of data to support an interest rate cut. • New York Fed President Williams and Fed President Richmond Barkin were reluctant to provide a specific time frame for interest rate cuts, but all officials emphasized the important role of economic data in the process. policy promotion process. • Philadelphia Fed President Harker said Monday that based on his current forecast, he thinks a rate cut this year is appropriate. This underscores the signal that interest rates may remain high. • Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed will wait until December before cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve policymakers have kept borrowing costs at their highest level in nearly a year and appear to be in no hurry to lower them. Just last week, Fed officials expected just one rate cut in 2024, down from three forecast in March. Notable economic data and events next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: US new home sales index Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold failed to break the channel edge and the key technical point highlighted by readers in Friday's edition, it came under strong selling pressure. Selling pressure to bring gold prices back into position is also very important for the uptrend from the price channel in the short term, the closing level is also around the technical point of 2,324 USD. In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue falling with the target level possibly aiming at the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term, however this will be more positive when the price channel is broken below. Returning to the price channel and falling below the 21-day moving average (EMA21) is a negative sign for gold prices from a technical perspective. The price channel noticed is a downtrend. The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above. In the near term, the technical outlook is temporarily inclined to the possibility of price decline with main pressure from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,320 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌Short-term trading plan for next week: on the H1 chart, we will initially watch to sell around the 2342 mark, and buy if the price drops to around the 2260 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls below 2,330 USD, capital flows into China Gold ETFOANDA:XAUUSD falling rapidly again after recovering in yesterday's trading session, the current drop is around 9$ on the day to below 2,330$ and reported at the time of publication to be finished at 2,325$ or down 0.40%. . Investors are looking forward to US inflation data later this week, which could influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The data focus this week is on Friday's US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the labor market is "about" to reach an inflection point and that further weakness will mean a rise in unemployment. Daly's comments showed she was leaning towards a dovish stance, adding: "Inflation is not the only risk we face right now." Four other Fed officials are being closely watched, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, who are expected to speak this week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 67.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September. According to Bank of America, China Gold ETF continued to see capital inflows, increasing by 253 million USD. This is the 6th consecutive month of capital inflow. China's gold ETF purchases have been driven by stock market weakness, a depreciating local currency and falling bond yields, with holdings now at a record high. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), market forces still appear to provide a solid foundation as about 20 central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold holdings next year. Bank of America said China's physical market was slightly weaker but remained generally supportive, with jewelry sales continuing to hover near seasonal highs. Likewise, China's domestic market prices are still higher than international prices. Another notable piece of data is that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that as of the week of June 18, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased by 11,984 lots to 189,533 lot. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is declining after recovering and approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the closest technical resistance on the daily gold price chart. . Although gold has declined, the price decline has not brought price activity below the price channel, the short-term trend price channel, this means gold still has support factors from the lower edge of the price channel and the technical level of 2,324 USD. comments to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold still has bullish conditions, the lower edge of the price channel produced a significant recovery yesterday and now if it breaks below gold could face further sell-off. same target around 2,305 – 2,300USD, so open long positions should be protected after the price channel breaks below. During the day, gold still has a technical upside prospect with notable positions being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD has rising technical conditions, geopolitical risksDespite the increase in the US Dollar and US Bond Yields, spot gold prices still increased by nearly 32 USD in yesterday's trading day, currently reported at about 2,360 USD/ounce. Data released by the US on Thursday showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US in the week to June 15 was 238,000, compared to the previous forecast of 235,000. The number of new homes built in the US in May fell to the slowest level in four years as rising interest rates weakened the housing sector's growth momentum earlier this year. Data showed new home construction in the US fell at an annual rate of 5.5% in May, compared with expectations for a 1.1% increase. In addition, the total number of construction permits in the US in May was 1.386 million, lower than the expected level of 1.45 million. Data last week showed labor market and price pressures were easing, while weak retail sales data released on Tuesday showed economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter. According to data from CME Fed's "FedWatch," traders currently see about a 64.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Because gold does not yield interest, interest rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and driving up gold prices. Rising geopolitical risks have fueled gold's bullish trend. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel threatens to attack Lebanon. Combined with the recently signed agreement between Russia and North Korea through President Putin's state visit, this could increase the appeal of gold as it increases geopolitical risks in the region. , is currently trading near key resistance levels reported to readers in yesterday's edition. Gold is still rising on safe-haven demand as global geopolitical threat levels rise again and global powers move troops on the global strategic chessboard. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is temporarily limited by key resistance that readers noticed in yesterday's edition after gold moved above the EMA21 level and broke out of the price channel. The current $2,364 technical level is the nearest notable resistance and once it is broken gold has the wherewithal to head for a new bull run with a near-term target of $2,400 raw price. On the overall technical picture, gold is technically well positioned to rally with the nearest support noted by the EMA21 level, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,345 technical point as previous resistance for now. is to become support. During the day, gold's technical outlook supports the possibility of price increases with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2400 - 2398 ⚰️SL: 2404 ⬆️TP1: 2393 ⬆️TP2: 2388 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2341
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD approaching 2,340USD, technical outlook analysisOn Thursday (June 20) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price once approached the mark of 2,340 USD/ounce, increasing nearly 11 USD during the day. Regarding basic content, there is currently no sudden impact on the market. Earlier Data released on Tuesday showed US retail sales barely grew in May, with last month's data revised down sharply, suggesting economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter. CME's FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased slightly to 64.1% from 61% a day earlier. In terms of the overall fundamental picture, the main factor shaping the gold price trend remains the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although gold prices have increased, the current trend is still unclear because the market is waiting for more decisive news. The basic principle is that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, meaning gold prices will benefit when interest rates are lower or expectations of interest rate cuts become stronger. The market is expecting at least one interest rate cut from the Fed. The value of the US Dollar has been fully valued in this. So unless this changes significantly, gold prices are expected to remain supported for a long time to come. However, with a trading week that sees little major macro data, the immediate focus will be on US weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and preliminary PMI figures on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still maintaining its recovery momentum from the $2,300 level and is now once again testing the technical confluence that is the pressure sent to readers in previous publications in the $2,340 - $2,345 area. This is the price area of ​​the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge of the trend price channel, horizontal resistance of 2,345USD. As long as gold remains below EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook remains more bearish. On the other hand, if gold falls below $2,324 it will continue to tend to retest the $2,300 - $2,305 area in the short term. Next, a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 level is broken below. It is worth noting that in case the gold price moves above the EMA21, breaking the price channel, the bearish outlook will no longer be positive, but instead the increase could head towards 2,364USD in the short term and more than that. original price 2,400USD. So, for open short positions should be protected behind EMA21, after the $2,345 level is broken. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans to the downside with the following technical levels noted. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2349 ⬆️TP2: 2344 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers from $2,300, limited with main trendOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after falling to $2,300/ounce and rebounded to operate around $2,330/ounce. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remained below 4.3% after the latest US data, helping gold prices rise on demand after the US Dollar weakened. OANDA:XAUUSD rose Tuesday after U.S. economic data showed a weaker-than-expected retail sales report led to curbs on consumer spending. This suggests the Federal Reserve could begin its easing cycle this year. The US Department of Commerce released retail sales data for May that improved compared to April. This data revived investors' hopes for an interest rate cut after the Fed signaled at its meeting. most recent meeting that current monetary policy is appropriate. Other data showed industrial production improved in May but was revised downward in April. In addition to economic data, Fed officials also speak at press conferences • New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates will gradually decline if deflation continues toward the Fed's annual core inflation target of 2%. While dodging questions about a September rate cut, he added: "I think things are moving in the right direction." • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin appeared cautious, saying he would need to see more data before easing policy. Later, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would not be enthusiastic about improving inflation data, adding that now is not the time to cut interest rates. • New St. Fed President Louis Alberto Mussallem said he needs to see how the deflation process progresses before voting to cut interest rates. He added that he favors raising interest rates if inflation stops, even though that is not his baseline forecast. While most policymakers are neutral, US Treasury yields reflect investors starting to evaluate a rate cut. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.219%. In addition to factors such as Macro Data and Fed officials, readers also need to pay special attention to issues such as geopolitical conflicts and precious metal trading activities of leading central banks, which This idea is always reminded through every publication sent to you. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold again recovered from the bearish price target area noticed by readers in previous publications at the support area of ​​2,305 – 2,300 USD. However, the recovery momentum is always limited by the resistance confluence created by EMA21, the 0.236% Fibonacci level and the upper edge of the price channel with the technical point 2,340 - 2,345USD. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bearish with the condition that a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 raw price level is broken below then target level. The target will be around 2,286 USD in the short term, more than the 2,272 USD price point of the Fibonacci 0.382%. During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD traded slightly down, main technical trendEntering the first phase of the week, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly due to high US interest rates making gold less attractive. Gold is on the defensive as US Treasury yields rose after Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance. Even so, the US dollar has not received any significant support, and in foreign exchange trading the Dollar is still weaker than other major correlated currencies. • Fed officials say there will only be one rate cut in 2024, via Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari. Over the weekend, the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari discussed monetary policy, saying it was "a reasonable forecast that the Fed will ease policy by just 25 basis points (bps) in 2024." That would send US bond yields higher, making holding gold less attractive while the federal funds rate remains elevated. • Fed Harker said that based on his current forecasts, he believes a rate cut this year is appropriate, underscoring the signal that interest rates will likely remain high. “If everything goes as expected, I think a rate cut would be appropriate later this year,” Harker said. The data is fine." So we'll still rely on the data." • Philadelphia Fed President now predicts economic growth will slow but remain above trend and the unemployment rate will increase modestly. He also believes that returning to the Fed's inflation target will be a "long process." • China's central bank paused an 18-month gold purchase, which also put pressure on gold prices. China's central bank's gold holdings held steady at 72.8 million ounces in May. In addition, the market is also paying close attention to upcoming comments from New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The US will release retail sales data on Tuesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) data on Friday. These data are expected to help investors better understand current consumption levels and economic strength. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading modestly with a resistance confluence area created by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance at $2,345, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge. The price channel is the main pressure area. Meanwhile, the current technical trend of gold price is still leaning heavily towards the possibility of a price decrease with the main trend from the price channel. In the immediate future, the support levels for gold prices include 2,305 - 2,300 USD. If the original price level of 2,300 USD is broken below, it will open up conditions for a new decline in gold prices with the target at 2,286 USD in the short term. limit and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, its technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell as the trading week kicked offLast week, world gold prices increased by 1.9% even though the Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased by 0.6%. Gold prices rose after statistics showing softening inflation in the US reinforced the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in September. After the CPI data dropped slightly, PPI also fell from 2.3% to 2.2% year-on-year, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets as a hedge against inflation. The FOMC maintained its inflation forecast for 2024-2025, but the new dot plot shows at least one rate cut this year, applying some much-needed temporary pressure to gold prices. Net gold positions on the COMEX have gradually declined since a peak on May 21, suggesting waning interest among money managers. XAUUSD retreated from the support zone at around $2,300 with weak momentum and consolidated just below the resistance zone at $2,350. If it sustains above $2,325, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7. However, if it trends below the $2,300 support zone, XAUUSD could drop to the support level. next psychological aid. Support: 2,300 – 2,288USD Resistance: 2,325 – 2,335USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2338 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2342 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2326 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2279 - 2281 ⚰️SL: 2275 ⬆️TP1: 2286 ⬆️TP2: 2291
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD limits recovery, after CPI, FOMC and Powell's statementOANDA:XAUUSD fell slightly during the Asian session on June 13, following the US CPI data report and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The 0.236% Fibonacci level limited the recovery momentum of gold price to keep it in the price channel. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in May increased 3.3% year-on-year, down from the previous value and the expected value is 3.4%; unchanged from the previous month, 0.1% lower than expected and also lower than the previous value. Values ​​slowed significantly to 0.3%, the lowest level since July 2022. Excluding food and energy costs, May core CPI increased 3.4% over the same period, lower than the expected 3.5% and lower than the previous 3.6%, the lowest level in more than 3 years. year; The increase in May increased from 0.3% in April to 0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. These data coincide with a deceleration in core CPI in April and may represent the early stages of inflation returning to a downward trend. However, Fed policymakers have emphasized that they will need to see price pressures abate for several months before considering lowering interest rates, especially as the latest jobs report sparks a debate. discuss the extent of policy limitations. The report was released hours before the Federal Reserve ended its two-day policy meeting in Washington. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh straight time on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. The Fed's Dotplot chart shows that it is expected that the agency will only cut interest rates once in 2024. Markets expected the Fed to adopt more supportive policies, but US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers reduced plans to cut interest rates three times in March to 2 times after a 2-day meeting. The committee also signaled that it sees longer-term interest rates higher than previously suggested. The new forecast released after a two-day meeting this week showed inflation still on track to return to the Fed's 2% target, allowing for some policy easing later this year. The statement after the meeting said: "Inflation has eased over the past year but remains high." The only significant change is that the new statement continues to say that "more modest progress has been made in recent months toward the FOMC's 2% inflation target." While the previous statement was "lack of further progress" on inflation. On the same day Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized in a press conference that the Fed was not yet confident in starting to cut interest rates, but also said that no one considered a rate hike an expectation. basic. Powell's statement can be interpreted as keeping interest rates high for longer but ruling out a rate hike. Overall assessment, CPI data has boosted gold prices in the short term, but after the FOMC announcement and Powell's statement reduced the possibility of gold price recovery because the USD became attractive, when the possibility of interest rates The high will last for a longer period of time. The fundamental picture after yesterday's trading day temporarily leans more towards the possibility of creating pressure on gold prices, but traders also need to pay attention to other unexpected impacts from geopolitical news. is still smoldering in many parts of the world. Gold is often supported when geopolitical risks escalate. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold's recovery yesterday, it was capped by key resistance that readers noticed in the previous issue at the $2,340 - $2,345 area, the price range of this level. Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. Gold's fall below $2,324 continues to provide prospects for it to test the $2,300 base and once the $2,300 base is broken below gold will be eligible for a new bearish cycle. with the latter target around $2,286 in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. That said, the original price level of 2,300 USD is also the closest current support worth noting. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,286USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2338 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2342 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2326 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2279 - 2281 ⚰️SL: 2275 ⬆️TP1: 2286 ⬆️TP2: 2291
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 17 - June 21]OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a steady recovery before the weekend, but the overall trend remained unclear as US consumer confidence continued to decline and inflation expectations remained high. COMEX gold futures (including electronic trading) closed up 1.31% at $2,348.40/ounce, up 1.01% this week. On Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index fell to 65.6 from a revised 69.1 in May. The data was weaker than expected, with expectations for the index at around 72.1. The new divergence between the Fed's interest rate forecast and market expectations could bring some volatility to the gold market in the short term. The latest economic forecast shows the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once this year, down from three as forecast in March. The Fed's interest rate forecast, also known as the Dotplot, shows the federal funds rate will be above 5.00% by the end of the year. “Inflation has eased over the past year but remains high,” the Fed said in its monetary policy statement. In recent months, inflation has made some progress toward the FOMC's 2% target. Gold should still receive good support as central banks remain solid buyers despite data from the People's Bank of China showing their gold reserves did not increase last month. China is the main driving force behind the increase in gold prices over the past year, and China's gold purchases have only been assessed as temporary and there has not been any move to show that they have "stopped". could also be a move to avoid paying a record high purchase price. Another piece of data worth noting is US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that in the week to June 11, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts decreased by 6,200 lots down to 177,549 lots. Economic data next week will be relatively soft, and the technical price trend of gold will receive more attention. The market will get some preliminary and regional manufacturing data as well as some US housing data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD that readers noticed last week, in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken. The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of ​​the technical point 2,345USD, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the upper edge of the price channel and the EMA21 moving average. In general, this will be the area where the gold price has all the important technical pressures for a technical downtrend. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level That's about 2,305 - 2,300USD in the short term. A new bearish cycle is expected to be ushered in once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the subsequent short-term target level is $2,286 more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Next week, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish with the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌Short-term trading plan for next week (illustrated chart): In the immediate future, we will consider selling if the price rises to 2365, buying if the price drops to 2260.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD will have unexpected fluctuationsOANDA:XAUUSD delivered immediately increased for the second consecutive trading day, gold price once reached 2,320 USD/ounce. Today (Wednesday), the market will receive the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US CPI data, which is expected to explode the market. The latest big news comes from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. An Israeli official said Israel had received Hamas's response to the ceasefire proposal through relevant mediators, but believed that Hamas had revised "all the fundamental content" of the proposal and Change the content of this proposal. The proposal outline was previously announced by US President Biden. Israel took this to mean that Hamas had rejected the ceasefire proposal. This news has helped gold attract some safe-haven buying activities, pushing gold prices higher in the context that the Dollar is still stronger. U.S. CPI Data and Federal Reserve Decisions Coming Soon US May CPI data will be released a few hours before the Fed's decision. If inflation stays stable, that could allow the dollar to start to gain traction first. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely be asked about the data at a post-FOMC press conference. On Wednesday, the United States will release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. US monthly CPI growth in May is expected to decline from 0.3% to 0.1%, but monthly core CPI growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%. Additionally, US annual CPI growth in May is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, while core CPI growth is expected to decline from 3.6% to 3.5%. On Thursday, the FOMC will release its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. Given policymakers' stance of "higher interest rates for longer," the market is almost certain that the FOMC will not act at this week's meeting. So the focus will be on the post-meeting statement and the new interest rate forecast. In March this year, the Fed's Interest Rate Dotplot showed that policymakers predicted that the policy rate would be cut by a total of 75 basis points in 2024. An upward revision is possible. That's because most policymakers say they are in no hurry to start reducing borrowing costs. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year is nearly 55%. Today is a very important trading day because it is directional from big data such as CPI and FOMC events, first gold and dollar will be affected by CPI data and then FOMC. If CPI data is better, this will boost the US Dollar but then if the FOMC shows the prospect of a rate cut then this will boost gold prices. A rather complicated trading day with two major events in the geopolitical context showing signs of supporting gold prices. Short comments will be sent to you as data and events are released, hopefully in time with your trading timing. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered to above its original price of 2,300 USD, but it is temporarily limited as it has not yet reached the target level at the technical point of 2,324 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's publication. However, the overall technical chart still shows a bearish picture with all the conditions from the main trend highlighted by the price channel and the main resistance from the confluence area of ​​the upper edge. price channel, 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21. In case gold falls below the original price of 2,300 USD, the recovery cycle has generally ended with the target price reduction then being around 2,286 - 2,272 USD. As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300 – 2,286USD Resistance: 2,324USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2341 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2334 ⬆️TP2: 2329 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD recovers, but technical conditions lean bearish OANDA:XAUUSD recovering to above the price of 2,300 USD as of the time this article was being completed. The previous trading day, gold prices reached their largest decline in 3 and a half years due to data released by China and the United States. Gold prices fell about $83, or 3.5%, last Friday, the biggest one-day drop since November 2020, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report dampened hopes for a interest rate cut in September, while news that China's central bank is delaying gold purchases caused the market to reduce bets on demand from China, one of the world's biggest gold buyers. . Market focus has shifted to the US consumer inflation report, released on Wednesday, the same day as the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The Fed is not expected to make any changes this week, focusing on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and changes to policymakers' economic forecasts. On the daily chart, gold is trying to recover above the $2,300 base price and a daily close above this base price would be a positive signal. To confirm, gold should maintain price activity above $2,305, a technical level noted by readers in Sunday's weekly edition. On the other hand, if gold moves below the original price level of 2,300 USD again, it will continue to be under technical pressure with the target level possibly aiming at the price point of 2,272 USD, the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Holding above $2,305 would strengthen the case for a recovery with a target then around $2,324, a position that was also brought to the attention of readers in the weekly publication. During the day, the technical trend is still leaning more towards bearish possibilities, positions will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,286 – 2,272USD Resistance: 2,314 – 2,324USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2341 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2334 ⬆️TP2: 2329 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
AUDUSD continues to benefit from the return to risk assetsAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ( OANDA:AUDUSD ) ANALYSIS - Australian inflation eases less than anticipated in March and Q1 as a whole - AUDUSD continues to benefit from the return to risk assets AUSTRALIAN INFLATION EASES LESS THAN ANTICIPATED IN Q1 Monthly, quarterly and yearly inflation measures showed disappointing progress towards the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target. The monthly CPI indicator for May rose to 3.5% versus the prior 3.4% to round off a disappointing quarter where the first three months of the year revealed a rise of 1%, trumping the 0.8% estimate and prior marker of 0.6%. Generally higher service cost pressures in the first quarter have made a notable contribution to the stubborn inflation data – something the RBA will most likely continue to warn against. The local interest rate is expected to remain higher for longer in part due to the sluggish inflation data but also due to the labour market remaining tight. A strong labour market facilitates spending and consumption, preventing prices from declining at a desired pace. Markets now foresee no movement on the rate front this year with implied basis point moves all in positive territory for the remainder of the year. This is of course likely to evolve as data comes in but for now, the chances of a rate cut this year appear unlikely. OANDA:AUDUSD CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM THE RETURN TO RISK ASSETS After escalation threats between Israel and Iran appeared to die down, markets returned to assets like the S&P 500 and the ‘high beta’ Aussie dollar. AUD/USD subsequently reversed after tagging the 0.6365 level – the September 2022 spike low and surpassed 0.6460 with ease. Upside momentum appears to have found intra-day resistance at a noteworthy area of confluence resistance – the intersection of the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The move could also be inspired by reports of Israel preparing to move on Hamas targets in Rafah, which could risks deflating the recent lift in risk sentiment. US GDP data tomorrow and PCE data on Friday still provide an opportunity for increased volatility and a potential USD comeback should both prints surprise to the upside, further reinforcing the higher for longer narrative that has reemerged. All things considered, AUD may be susceptible to a sifter end to the week.
by Xayah_trading