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Risks cool down, GOLD is sold off to a critical pointOANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from recent highs due to the impact of reduced geopolitical risks and a stronger US Dollar. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have maintained a hawkish stance on interest rates, which has weighed on gold prices. Sentiment has changed as expectations for a Fed rate cut were revised to a potentially longer than previously expected June date. Iran downplayed the retaliatory Israeli drone strike on April 19, which was previously seen as an escalation of the conflict. Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish comments recently. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a lack of progress in fighting inflation is the reason interest rates must stay high for longer. Chicago Fed President Goolsby also agreed with Powell. Goolsby said progress on disinflation had "stalled". Notably, Goolsby is one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investors now await the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report on Friday for further direction on the outlook for US interest rate cuts. In fact, in recent times, gold has been deeply affected by major and sudden events. The media war in the Middle East has caused gold to increase sharply followed by news that suddenly cooled the conflict. Sticking to a rigid trend is a mistake that takes a lot of time to correct. There are some people who have won by following the market risk and making purchases and then receiving certain profits. But when the risk suddenly disappears, not reacting in time or knowing but not accepting the change is a huge mistake that brings heavy losses. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has broken out of a short-term downtrend after breaking below the $2,365 level noted in the weekly edition and is now trading at a very important support area for the uptrend. medium term while maintaining price activity above EMA21. Meanwhile, if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level continues to be broken below gold will continue to be at risk of further declines with the target level then at the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.328% Fibonacci level. This means if open long positions are taken they need to be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. During the day, gold is expected to recover slightly but is not yet qualified for a strong price increase with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,325 – 2,305USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2282 - 2284 ⚰️SL: 2279 ⬆️TP1: 2289 ⬆️TP2: 2294
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD is at risk after information is revealed about FOMC, SNBOANDA:EURUSD NEWS AND ANALYSIS - ECB officials eye June meeting for first rate cut, SNB delivers a surprise cut - Dollar drop appears short-lived as EUR/USD heeds resistance ECB OFFICIALS EYE JUNE MEETING FOR FIRST RATE CUT, SNB DELIVERS A SURPRISE CUT Despite the EU and US having different growth prospects, the ECB remains cautious about cutting rates. They are eyeing up the June meeting as significant. Wage growth has been a focus, but it seems the ECB is running out of reasons to delay rate cuts. Today, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bps to normalize monetary policy. This decision was prompted by challenges in the external environment, the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, and inflation below two percent expected to continue next year and in 2026. DOLLAR DROP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS OANDA:EURUSD HEEDS RESISTANCE Yesterday's dovish Fed announcement led to a decline in expectations of a 25 basis point hike, causing the dollar to drop. As a result, EUR/USD saw gains and tested resistance levels at 1.0942 and 1.0960, which correspond to Fibonacci retracements from the recent decline. The 50 and 200-day simple moving averages and the support level at 1.0830 are important factors to consider.
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD stabilized and recovered modestly over the past few daysAfter enduring notable losses last week, EURUSD steadied and mounted a modest comeback over the past few days, rebounding off the psychological 1.0600 level and pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair continues to recover in the coming days, resistance is expected at 1.0695 and 1.0725 thereafter. On further strength, all eyes will be on 1.0820. Conversely, should sellers reassert themselves and take charge of the market, technical support becomes apparent at 1.0600. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; any failure to do so could exacerbate bearish momentum in the near term, paving the way for a deeper decline towards the 2023 lows near 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600After steep losses in recent days, EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600 level on Wednesday, pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair manages to build upon its recovery in the days ahead, resistance lies at 1.0695, followed by 1.0725. On further strength, the focus will be on 1.0820. On the other hand, if sellers return and regain control of the market, technical support emerges at 1.0600. Bulls must staunchly defend this technical floor; a failure to do so could reinforce bearish pressure in the near term, resulting in a deeper pullback toward the 2023 lows located near 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
Technical outlook for EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD jumped on Wednesday, with bulls seemingly determined to challenge trendline resistance at 1.0950 after the FOMC announcement. In the event of a retest, sellers will need to fend off the advance; otherwise, there will be minimal obstacles to a rally towards 1.0970, a key Fibonacci level. Alternatively, if upside pressure begins to fade and sellers spark a bearish reversal, support can be identified at 1.0890, followed by 1.0850, where an ascending trendline converges with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY is close to 151.958The Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its policy interest rate to 0.00-0.10% in March, bringing interest rates out of negative territory. Although the yen was expected to increase, the market witnessed a decline in the yen, causing the OANDA:USDJPY exchange rate to increase. Although the Bank of Japan gave limited guidance on further policy tightening, markets viewed the move as a moderate interest rate hike, so the yen's depreciation fueled sentiment. that the central bank could intervene to support the yen. In addition to great nonfarm payrolls data, hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials helped US bond yields reach their highest level in more than four months and also supported USD/JPY. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit 4.42% on Monday, its highest since November 27. Higher US bond yields and the USD push USD/JPY higher still. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY has not yet broken the confluence resistance level by the upper edge of the price channel (a) and the 1% Fibonacci level of 151,958 to qualify for a new bullish cycle. While USD/JPY still has a primary bias to the upside, sustained activity below 151.958 provides room for short-term downside corrections without changing the primary uptrend. In the long term, the main trend of USD/JPY is up with the main price channel (a) as the long-term trend and the short-term uptrend supported by EMA21. The main uptrend in USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels, and traders should also pay attention to the possibility of a slight correction occurring. Support: 150,767 – 150,102 Resistance: 151.958
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY edged lower on WednesdayUSDJPY edged lower on Wednesday, stepping off its multi-decade high established in the previous session when the pair hit 154.78. Should the downturn reversal gain momentum later this week, support can be spotted at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter. Below these levels, 150.80 may become a focal point. Conversely, if USDJPY resumes its rally, resistance looms at 154.78, followed by 156.00, the upper limit of a short-term ascending channel. Despite the pair’s bullish bias, caution is warranted due to overbought market conditions and the growing possibility of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY broke above the 152.00 resistance levelThe US dollar surged on Wednesday due to higher-than-expected US inflation numbers. This led to USDJPY reaching new highs for 2024 and its strongest level since 1990. The March Consumer Price Index report showed persistent inflation in the North American economy, reducing expectations for a June FOMC rate cut. Headline CPI increased by 3.5% YoY, surpassing forecasts and accelerating from February's 3.2%. The core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, also exceeded expectations at 3.8%, indicating a potential increase in price pressures. Wall Street reacted swiftly, pushing U.S. Treasury yields upwards across the board on bets that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain a restrictive position for an extended period. Against this backdrop, the U.S. 2-year yield jumped more than 20 basis points, coming within striking distance from recapturing the 5.0% psychological mark. Traders also adjusted their view on the FOMC’s trajectory, pushing back on the timing and magnitude of future reductions in borrowing costs. That said, futures contracts now price in less than 40 basis points of easing for the year, with the first potential cut likely occurring in September. The table below shows current meeting probabilities. Fed Chair Powell recently downplayed inflation concerns at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. However, recent high CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of policy outlook and lead to more hawkish rhetoric, which could benefit the U.S. dollar. While the dollar may consolidate in the short term, it's uncertain if it can continue to appreciate against the yen as Japanese authorities may intervene to support their currency. OANDA:USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY broke through resistance at 152.00, reaching its highest level since June 1990. Without intervention, speculators may attack the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 155.70. If prices fall below 152.00, support is expected at 150.90 and failure to defend this area could lead to a retracement towards the 50-day moving average at 150.00, with channel support near 149.25 being closely watched.
by Xayah_trading
2
USDJPY does not show a clear directionUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:USDJPY - U.S. dollar loses ground on Monday ahead of high-impact events later in the week - Core PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be the center of attention - This article examines the technical outlook for USD/JPY The dollar fell slightly on Monday, but losses were limited by higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders took profits after last week's strong performance, while others held back due to upcoming high-impact events like the release of core PCE data and a speech by Powell on Friday. OANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY showed no clear direction on Monday after last week's surge, with the pair hovering just under last year’s peak at 152.00. A breach of this barrier might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in support of the yen, potentially limiting the breakout's longevity. Nevertheless, absent FX intervention, a surge beyond 152.00 could set the stage for a push towards 154.40. Alternatively, if bears wrest control from bulls and initiate a reversal, support can be spotted at 150.90, followed by 149.75 subsequently. The pair might stabilize around these levels upon a retest, but if a breakdown occurs, a drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 148.90 could be in the cards.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is trading within a limited rangeOANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY traded within a confined range on Thursday, lingering just below overhead resistance at 152.00. This technical barrier warrants close attention, as a breakout might prompt intervention from the Japanese government to support the yen. Should such a scenario unfold, a rapid reversal below 150.90 could occur ahead a possible drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 149.75. In the event that USD/JPY takes out the 152.00 level and Tokyo refrains from intervening, opting instead to allow market forces to find a new equilibrium for the exchange rate, buyers might gain confidence to launch a bullish attack on 155.25, a key barrier created by the upper boundary of an ascending channel in place since December of last year.
by Xayah_trading
AUDNZD entered a period of consolidation as prices fell slightlyAUDNZD entered into a period of consolidation as prices eased in the form of a bull flag pattern. After yesterday’s close, a bullish continuation appears on the cards for the pair despite today’s intraday pullback from the daily high. A move below 1.0885 suggests a failure of the bullish continuation but as long as prices hold above this marker, the longer-term bullish bias and the prospect of a bullish continuation remains constructive. One thing to keep in mind is the risk of a shorter-term pullback as the RSI approaches overbought once more. Upside target appears at 1.1052 (June 2023 high) and 1.0885 to the downside.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 22 - April 26]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased mainly due to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Gold prices recorded a fifth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since January 2023. Despite strong gains in the dollar and bond yields, expectations of an interest rate cut in 2024 have faded. decline. Israel's response comes a week after Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel pushed gold prices to a record high of over $2,426 an ounce. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest there is no rush to cut interest rates in the short term. This view is echoed not only by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but also by John Williams of the New York Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed). According to Kitco, in addition to persistent inflation, it is important to emphasize that the continuously tightening labor market reinforces the view of a strong economy, supporting the "soft landing" scenario, indicating that the The expected first interest rate cut will be delayed. It is worth noting that the market focus has shifted slightly from Fed policy to geopolitical risks, influencing investor strategies and gold pricing. Israel reportedly struck back at Iran on Friday morning, hitting a military site with drones, but it was limited and did not appear to cause much damage. Gold prices rose nearly 1.6% after concerns about widespread conflict in the Middle East disrupted global markets following the above event. Fed officials agree that interest rate cuts are not urgent. The market currently predicts the probability of an interest rate cut in September is about 67%. High interest rates make holding non-yielding gold less attractive. Next week is a week of little economic data of note, as traders focus on March U.S. new home sales on Tuesday and March durable goods on Wednesday. On Thursday, there will be the release of the first quarter US GDP report, quarterly PCE data, weekly initial jobless claims and pending home sales data. The week's most notable data will appear on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with technical conditions supporting an upward price trend as reported to readers throughout recent publications. The short-term uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the medium-term trend is noticed by the EMA21. The weekly close above the 1% Fibonacci extension opens up the prospect of continued upside next week with a near-term target of $2,400 full price and beyond all-time highs. Currently, there are no notable resistance points to set expectations for a possible downward adjustment. If gold is sold off below 2,365 USD, it will have conditions to technically adjust downward to the target level. then at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension point. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price falls and adjusting to around 2320, and selling if the price increases to reach 2473. Looking ahead, gold remains tilted towards the bullish case and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURGBP increased at the beginning of the week but has reversedEURGBP rallied earlier in the week but reversed its course on Thursday after failing to clear trendline resistance at 0.8570, with prices dropping towards the 50-day simple moving average at 0.8550. The pair is likely to stabilize around current levels before mounting a comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a dip towards 0.8520 and potentially 0.8500 could be around the corner. Alternatively, if bulls manage to reassert dominance and push the exchange rate higher, resistance emerges at 0.8570 as mentioned before. Breaking through this technical obstacle could set the stage for a surge toward the 200-day simple moving average near the 0.8600 handle.
by Xayah_trading
GOLD spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time highOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Gold spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time high - FX markets captured the flight to safety while US equity markets were shut - Gold volatility index eyed ahead of the weekend OANDA:XAUUSD SPIKED HIGHER, FALLING NARROWLY SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME HIGH Gold prices surged on Friday morning following reports of an Israeli strike on Iran, raising concerns of a broader conflict. The uncertainty in the Middle East has contributed to the increase in gold prices, approaching its all-time high of $2431. Although gold remains overbought on the daily chart, the bullish momentum seems to be slowing down. The support level is at $2360, with further interest around $2320. Despite a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, central bank buying continues to support the upward trend in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentalsOANDA:XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase. Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack. Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase. Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023. Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors. - Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe. - Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21. In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery suddenly increased sharply. Spot gold has just increased to 2,415 USD/ounce, it has increased more than 35 US Dollars during the day. Previously, US media reported that the US confirmed that an Israeli missile hit an Iranian facility. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 1,426 lots traded within one minute from 08:43 to 08:44 Hanoi time on April 19, with a total contract value of 346 million USD. According to the latest report of the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) today Friday, April 19, a US official confirmed to the media that an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Meanwhile, US intelligence said officials could not confirm reports of air strikes in Syria and Iraq. ABC reported that a senior US official told ABC News that Israel launched missiles at Iran as a retaliation attack against Iran. Israeli military officials previously announced that Iran launched an attack on Saturday and launched more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across Israel. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's war cabinet have held several meetings since the attack on Iran, with ABC previously reporting that at least two previous attacks had been called off. With current geopolitical developments, the market in general and the gold market in particular will temporarily be less affected by moves from monetary policy. Gold is considered the safe haven asset of choice in contexts of geopolitical conflict, and it becomes even more attractive if conflicts escalate. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved all target price increases after 3 days of accumulation with a short-term upward trend from the price channel that has been noticed by readers throughout the previous editions maintained. maintain stability. The bullish structure remains unchanged with a short-term upward trend from the price channel and medium-term from the EMA21. Temporarily, gold has enough conditions to retest its all-time peak if it continues to maintain above the original price of 2,400 USD. This means the current all-time high is considered the nearest resistance level, which is also the nearest target upside. Meanwhile, the 1% Fibonacci extension now becomes the closest support level. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,365 - 2,382USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337 ⚰️SL: 2331 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2347
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD reached target gainsAlthough the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase. Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than. Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold. The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected. With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%. Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%. The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge) US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal) Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.” The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged. Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established. The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2402 ⬆️TP2: 2397 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2364 ⬆️TP2: 2369
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD may enter an accumulation phaseOANDA:XAUUSD remained steady as safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset weakening expectations of a US interest rate cut this year. Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight session, with rising bond yields putting pressure on gold as they increase the opportunity cost of investing in metals. However, gold has remained strong over the past few weeks despite rising bond yields due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a safe-haven asset, gold has seen growing demand from investors and central banks amid global economic uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions. On the one hand, investors are still concerned about the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer has limited demand for gold. Traders are now relying on US macro data and speeches from influential members of the Fed, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, to find trading opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation data suggests it may take longer for the central bank to feel confident enough to cut interest rates. Powell pointed out that the Fed has lacked more progress in fighting inflation since inflation fell sharply late last year. If price pressures continue, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged “for as long as necessary.” “Recent data clearly does not give us greater confidence but instead suggests that achieving that confidence may take longer than expected,” Powell said in his latest statement. After Fed Chairman Powell said that recent data showed no progress in inflation, this new point caused interest rate cut expectations to continue to decline. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 98%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0% and the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points version is 2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 84.8% and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.9%. The market context is making trading decisions much more difficult, as two important market fundamentals are creating profoundly opposing influences. On the one hand, gold is supported by rising geopolitical risks that increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, on the other hand, gold is under pressure because the Fed's interest rate expectations are having new points due to data. Does macroeconomics favor the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer? These two opposing factors may create a state of accumulation in the near future, with gold prices increasing and decreasing within certain limits and this will be described through the technical analysis section below. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations. At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend. In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point. Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions. The expectation of cumulative sideways with an uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,331 - 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 - 2430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353 ⚰️SL: 2348 ⬆️TP1: 2358 ⬆️TP2: 2363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPJPY was largely flat on ThursdayGBP/JPY was largely flat on Thursday, trading slightly below trendline resistance at 192.70. Bears need to protect this ceiling tooth and nail; any lapse could spark a move towards the 2024 highs at 193.55. On further strength, a jump towards the psychological 195.00 mark cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, if the pair gets rejected from its current position and pivots to the downside, support stretches from 190.60 to 190.15, where a rising trendline converges with the 50-day simple moving average and April’s swing lows. Additional losses below this floor could reinforce bearish impetus, opening the door for a drop towards 187.90.
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD taking profits after continuously creating highsGold hit a new record of $2,430 last week during the New York session. It has seen gains in seven of the past eight weeks, increasing by over 17% since mid-February. This is despite the strength of the US dollar and a hawkish repricing of US interest rate expectations. The usual negative relationship between gold and US real yields has broken down, leaving traders confused. Geopolitical frictions in the Middle East have further bolstered gold, although these risks have intensified only recently and haven't been a predominant theme for an extended period. To add context, investors have been nervous about Iran's potential retaliation against Israel following the bombing of its embassy in Syria. Such action could escalate tensions in the region and spill over into a wider conflict. DEEPER LOOK INTO CURRENT MARKET DRIVERS There are several other reasons that could explain why gold has done so well this year. Here are some possible explanations for its ascent: The Momentum Trap: Gold's relentless rise could be fueled by a self-fulfilling speculative frenzy. This trend-following behavior can create vertical rallies that are often unsustainable over the long term. Should this dynamic be at play right now, a sharp downward correction could unfold once sentiment shifts and valuations reset. Hard landing: Some market participants may be hedging an economic downturn caused by the aggressive monetary policy tightening from 2022-2023 and the fact that policymakers could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to stalling progress on disinflation. Inflation comeback: Gold bulls could be taking a strategic long-term approach, betting that the Fed will cut rates no matter what as insurance policy to prevent adverse developments in an election year. Cutting rates while consumer prices remain well above the 2% target risks triggering a new inflationary wave that would ultimately benefit precious metals. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has rallied this week, setting a new all-time high near $2,430. However, the price eventually fell to that level and closed at $2,344 on Friday. If the reversal persists in the coming trading sessions, support will emerge at $2,305, followed by $2,267. With further weakness, all eyes will be on $2,225. On the other hand, if they rotate higher and rally again, the record high of $2,430 will be the first line of defense against further advances. With the market stretched and in overbought territory, gold may struggle to overcome this barrier, but in the event of a breakout, we could see gold prices move towards $2,500. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,319 – 2,267 - 2,225USD Resistance: 2,365 - 2,430USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has fallen sharply in recent daysThe US dollar strengthened last week, reaching its highest level since mid-February. Despite initial losses, the greenback reversed its trend in response to a shift in global interest rate expectations. Speculation arose that other central banks may relax their policies earlier than the Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank could be among them. This week, the release of the core PCE deflator will be a significant event on the U.S. economic calendar. Due to the closure of international markets on Good Friday, the true impact of the data may not be fully apparent until Monday. However, volatility could still occur due to lower liquidity. The upcoming PCE report is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the core price index indicator for February, keeping the 12-month reading at 2.8%. If the result exceeds this estimate, it could be positive for the dollar and potentially delay any moves towards a looser policy stance by U.S. policymakers. FOREXCOM:EURUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has fallen sharply in recent days, breaching both trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0835, signaling a bearish shift. If losses accelerate in the coming week, a key technical floor to watch emerges at 1.0800. Below this area, the focus will be on 1.0725. On the other hand, if bulls mount a comeback and spark a rebound, resistance can be identified in the 1.0835-1.0850 band. In the event of a bullish push past this range, attention will be directed towards the 100-day simple moving average, followed by 1.0890 and 1.0925 in case of sustained strength.
by Xayah_trading
2
EURUSD stabilizes ahead of press conferenceOANDA:EURUSD , CHARTS AND ANALYSIS - ECB edges further towards a June rate cut. - Will President Lagarde begin signaling further rate cuts? The ECB maintained its policy levers unchanged, as expected. However, they stated that if their assessment of inflation and monetary policy transmission improves, they may consider reducing current restrictions. This follows their previous mention of June as a potential meeting for a policy decision, increasing the likelihood of a cut on June 6th. Financial markets continue to price in a 25 basis point at the June meeting and have recently increased the probability of an additional cut at the July 18th meeting. It may well be that the ECB cuts twice before the Fed makes its first move. OANDA:EURUSD fell sharply yesterday, due to post-CPI US dollar strength, leaving the Euro as the next driver of any move. Initial support is seen around 1.0698, a double-low made in early February, before the 1.0635 – May 31st swing-low – and 1.0610 – Fibonacci retracement – come into play.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 15 - April 19]International gold prices surged this week due to central banks' gold demand, expected interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have increased gold's safe haven status. Central banks, including those in the BRICS bloc, are buying gold to diversify away from the US and the West. Lower interest rates by central banks like the FED are expected to drive up gold prices. The unexpected growth of the US labor market in March, with 303,000 jobs added, gives motivation for the FED to cut interest rates in June. International gold prices have increased by 17% since the beginning of 2024 and have room to rise further when the FED cuts interest rates. March CPI and PPI data, to be released next week, may strongly affect gold prices. Forecasts suggest that US CPI will rise by approximately 0.2% in March. If the actual data meets or falls below this expectation (below 0.3%), it will be favorable for gold prices. This would bolster the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in June. Conversely, if March CPI exceeds 0.4%, it could delay the Fed's rate cut plans and negatively impact gold prices. 📌Technically, if we refer to the monthly time frame technical chart, the gold price has formed wave 5 according to the Elliott wave pattern, continuing to dissect the Elliott wave on the weekly chart, we can see with the naked eye. Currently, the gold price is in wave 3, and the price is approximately touching the 161.8 fibo mark around the 2431 threshold. If wave 3 is officially completed and enters the adjustment cycle, but we need to see the gold price trading above the 2200 threshold to expect it. Gold maintained its upward momentum and formed another wave 5, continuing to conquer a new high price level. Another perspective with the fibo time zone, the gold price may peak and reverse at the end of April or through May, corresponding to the peak of wave 3 and reduce and adjust wave 4, which is also considered appropriate. ly. The trading plan for next week will first consider selling around 2383 and buying if the price adjusts to 2250.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1