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EURUSD advanced on MondayEURUSD advanced on Monday, clearing both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages near 1.0785. If this bullish breakout is sustained, overhead resistance stretches from 1.0805 to 1.0810. While overcoming this barrier may pose a challenge for bulls, a move beyond it could lead to relatively clear sailing towards 1.0865, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 selloff. Conversely, if sellers mount a comeback and drive the pair below the previously mentioned simple moving average indicators, sentiment towards the euro could start souring, creating the right conditions for a pullback towards 1.0725 and 1.0695 thereafter. Additional losses below this crucial floor could trigger a descent towards 1.0650, May’s trough.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD remained subdued late in the weekEURUSD remained subdued late in the week, unable to sustain its upward momentum after Wednesday’s bullish breakout, with the exchange rate seesawing but holding steady above 1.0865. Bulls need to keep prices above this area to prevent a resurgence of sellers; failure to do so could result in a pullback toward 1.0810/1.0800. On the other hand, if buying momentum resurfaces and the pair moves higher again, overhead resistance can be spotted near 1.0980, a key technical barrier defined by the March swing high. Should the pair continue to strengthen beyond this point, buyers might gain confidence and target 1.1020, a dynamic trend line extending from the 2023 peak.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD traded quite quietlyEURUSD trades in somewhat of a tepid fashion but has a slight lean to the downside after bouncing off channel resistance. There was always a good chance that the dollar would recover some of its losses in a quieter week as the FX market tends to favour higher yielding currencies under less volatile conditions. The pair approached overbought conditions but reversed course before actually breaching the marker. The last time this was observed was back in March when an extended period of selling ensued. Resistance remains at the upper limit of the ascending channel while support rests at the channel support, followed by the psychological level of 1.0800 and the 200 day simple moving average thereafter. EURUSD trading seeks a catalyst that may only arrive towards the latter stages of next week when US PCE as well as German and EU inflation data is due.
by Xayah_trading
Hawkish RBNZ meeting buoys NZDUSDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has warned about high domestic inflation despite having one of the highest interest rates among major central banks. The committee discussed raising rates but acknowledged that the economy can't handle it. As a result, markets have postponed expectations of a rate cut to November. The NZD/USD has been steadily rising since April, even after breaking above the longer-term trendline resistance. While the Kiwi dollar is approaching overbought conditions, there is still potential for short-term gains. The next major resistance level is at 0.6200, but first, a test of yesterday's high at 0.6152 is needed. If there is a pullback, prices could settle around the 0.6050 level, which aligns with the 200 SMA.
by Xayah_trading
CPI continues to push, new short uptrend, raw price $2,400Data showed US consumer prices rose less than expected in April, raising the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell, gold prices rose because expectations of interest rate cuts will make haven assets like gold more attractive. A gauge of core U.S. inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months, a small step in the right direction for Fed officials looking to start cutting interest rates this year. Bureau of Labor Statistics data also showed that year-over-year gains fell to a three-year low. The Fed is attempting to ease price pressures by weakening demand across the economy. The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, after seasonal adjustment, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.4% year-on-year in April, matches expectations. The CPI in March increased by 3.50% over the same period last year. US CPI in April increased by 0.3% over the previous month, lower than the expected 0.40%, and CPI in March increased by 0.40% over the previous month. This is the first time in 6 months that the US CPI growth rate has decreased. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 74% chance the US will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After breaking the $2,366 level yesterday, gold has also confirmed the breakout of the falling price channel and now the target increase could be aimed at the raw price point of $2,400 in the short term and more to the $2,417 level. In addition, gold also forms an increasing price channel in the short term and this will technically be the trend price channel for gold prices in the near future. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the outlook is technically bullish. During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,377 – 2,366USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2364 - 2366 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2371 ⬆️TP2: 2376
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3 Fed officials released many comments, GOLD has a narrow rangeOANDA:XAUUSD after a correction on Thursday, it remained within a short-term uptrend and the market was affected by some comments from Fed officials. Three senior Fed officials said the central bank should keep interest rates high longer as policymakers await more evidence of slowing inflation, suggesting officials are in no rush to cut interest rates. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have supported the dollar and put pressure on gold prices, limiting the upside potential for gold prices. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin all said Thursday that inflation could take longer to reach the 2% target. • Mester said Thursday at an event in Wooster, Ohio: “Incoming economic information suggests that it will take longer to reach the inflation target, we have many limitations and need to maintain longer policy,” said Mester, who has the right to cast a deciding vote this year. • Williams, the Fed's "No. 3 voice," made similar comments in an interview with Reuters published on Thursday, saying he saw no reason to adjust monetary policy bad right now. “I don't expect to see the greater confidence we need to see in the short term that inflation is moving towards the 2% target,” Williams said. • Barkin told CNBC on Thursday that demand will need to cool further for inflation to reach the Fed's target. He noted that commodity inflation has dropped significantly as supply chains have been repaired. “To get to 2% sustainably in the right way, I think it's going to take a while,” said Barkin, who also has a vote on policymaking this year. • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that officials will “need to be patient and let restrictive policies work.” Fundamentally, gold is being constrained by comments from Fed officials yesterday, but looking ahead it is clear that the longer term path remains supportive as market sentiment Overall, it shows that the Fed will cut interest rates. Once interest rates are cut, gold prices will continue to increase because gold prices priced in Dollars will become more attractive when the US Dollar weakens. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading in a fairly narrow range after yesterday's short correction. However, the main short-term trend is still maintained as an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. As long as gold remains above the 21-day moving average EMA21, it is still supported in the medium term. Only when gold is sold off below EMA21 to return to operating within the price channel will a more negative situation be eligible to occur, meaning that open long positions should be protected behind EMA21. On the other hand, at the present time gold is still expected to increase with a short-term target level at the original price of 2,400 USD and more than 2,417 USD. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,376 – 2,366USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2356 - 2358 ⚰️SL: 2352 ⬆️TP1: 2363 ⬆️TP2: 2368
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD edged back into the green TuesdayOANDA:GBPUSD ANALYSIS AND CHARTS - GBPUSD edged back into the green Tuesday - The UK’s March PMI saw upward revision, signaling the first growth in twenty months The British Pound slightly rebounded against the US Dollar on Monday due to unexpected strength in domestic manufacturing. However, the Pound remains below last week's trading range against the Dollar, as strong economic data from the US pushed it down. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in March, surpassing market expectations and indicating expansion in the sector. The US Dollar gained against the Pound, driven by positive performance and the UK Purchasing Managers Index reaching its highest level in twenty months. The Dollar is expected to remain strong this week, with the Federal Reserve indicating a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts. Market focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell's comments and any potential impact on the Dollar. The week will end with the US nonfarm payrolls release. March is expected to have seen 200,000 new jobs created, keeping the unemployment rate at 3.9%. OANDA:GBPUSD Technical Analysis The very broad trading range seen since late November is starting to look more like a plateau on the path lower, even if, of course, that is far from confirmed so far. The downtrend channel from the highs of March 8 looks far more solid, at least in terms of its lower bound and, if Sterling bulls can’t keep prices above that, a test of important retracement support at 1.2510 looks likely in the coming weeks. A durable break below that will take GBP/USD back into territory not seen since the end of last year and is likely to signal heavier falls. For now, near-term resistance comes in at March 25’s opening low of 1.25894, with some pause in the downtrend likely of bulls can force the pace above this level. Channel support lies at 1.25090.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD sold off this weekGBPUSD sold off this week, slipping below a technical floor at 1.2430 and hitting its lowest point since November. With bearish momentum prevailing, there's potential for accelerated losses in the short term, possibly prompting a revisit of 1.2320 – a major Fibonacci support level. Prices may bottom out in this area before reversing higher; but in the case of a breakdown, a move towards 1.2168 could unfold. Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of buyers and cable rebounds off its current position, resistance zones can be identified at 1.2430 and 1.2525 subsequently. Upside clearance of these levels could boost upward impetus, creating the right conditions for a rally towards the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2570.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD mounted a moderate comeback on WednesdayGBPUSD mounted a moderate comeback on Wednesday, bouncing off support in the 1.2430 region. If the pair extends its rebound in the coming trading days, resistance awaits at 1.2525, followed by 1.2575 near the 200-day simple moving average. On continued strength, the next key level to watch is 1.2645. Alternatively, if sellers return and trigger a market selloff, support is visible at 1.2430. To prevent a larger drop, bulls must protect this floor tooth and nail; any lapse could usher in a slump towards 1.2325. Further losses beyond this point might refocus attention on the October 2023 lows near 1.2040.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD falls back into prior trading range as USD maintains bidPOUND STERLING ANALYSIS - Sterling in focus ahead of lower anticipated UK inflation – BoE up Next - OANDA:GBPUSD falls back into prior trading range as USD maintains bid STERLING IN FOCUS AHEAD OF LOWER ANTICIPATED UK INFLATION – BOE UP NEXT UK inflation, expected to drop before the Bank of England's monetary policy update, is crucial for achieving the target of 2% inflation. Services inflation remains high with limited progress. The Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to change their stance even if inflation exceeds estimates. Market expectations favor a rate cut in August, while current rates at 5.25% have strengthened the pound. The committee's vote split will be closely monitored if the hawks decide to join those calling for a hold on interest rates. The Fed will provide an update on its monetary policy and new economic projections. The dot plot, showing where officials see interest rates at the end of 2024, will be crucial for the market. Both Powell and Bailey are expected to maintain a consistent message. The image below provides the year-to-date performance of various currencies against the dollar: OANDA:GBPUSD FALLS BACK INTO PRIOR TRADING RANGE AS USD MAINTAINS BID In March, GBP/USD broke out of its trading channel and reached a new high. However, the recent rise in US inflation has strengthened the dollar against several G7 currencies. The GBP/USD pair is now testing the previous high as support. Price action may be volatile due to upcoming central bank meetings, with the Bank of Japan being the only likely mover. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is the next dynamic level of support followed by the bottom of the trading range at 1.2585. Topside resistance appears at 1.2800 followed by the high 1.2893
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD fails to build after the recoveryUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:GBPUSD - U.S. dollar displays rangebound behavior ahead of high-impact events on Friday - US PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be key for markets - Thinner liquidity conditions are expected later in the week because of a bank holiday The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, moved within a narrow range on Tuesday, displaying a lack of clear direction, but ultimately managed to eke out tiny gains. Mixed U.S. Treasury yields and a sense of caution among market participants contributed to the muted price action, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of high-impact events on the U.S. economic calendar later this week. The release of core PCE data on Friday is significant as it provides insights into consumer prices. Fed Chair Powell's speech on the same day will be closely watched for clues on the timing of the first rate cut of 2024. However, market reaction may be delayed due to the bank holiday and Easter Monday in Europe, causing investors to hesitate until a clearer picture emerges. Forex trading during holidays may not be normal due to reduced liquidity, which can increase price swings. Even routine trades can disrupt the balance between supply and demand. It is advised to be cautious while trading in the upcoming days. OANDA:GBPUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD failed to sustain its rebound from Monday and moved lower, unable to break above trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at 1.2675. If this rejection is confirmed in the coming days, a retest of the 1.2600 level could happen soon, with further potential losses towards 1.2510. On the other hand, if buyers step in and push the pair higher, there is resistance at 1.2675 and then at the key psychological level of 1.2700. Breaking through this technical barrier might be challenging, but a decisive breakout could strengthen upward momentum and potentially lead to a rally towards 1.2830.
by Xayah_trading
EURGBP rose uncharacteristically on FridayEUR/GBP rose unusually on Friday as risks of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran eased. In addition, it is seen that inflation will decrease sharply to the target level in the coming months, sending a dovish signal to the market. The bank needs to remain restrained in its policy stance. However, he echoed Ramsden's comments by saying that the committee is seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamics. EUR/GBP appears to have found resistance around 0.8625 and has traded lower after the PMI data, even heading lower than the 200 SMA. A return to former channel resistance is potentially on the cards at 0.8578. Prices settled into the trading range as central bankers mulled incoming data and the prospect of a first rate cut appeared a fair distance away. Longer-term, the ECB is on track to cut rates in June, meaning sterling will extend its interest rate superiority and is likely to see the pair test familiar levels of support.
by Xayah_trading
Fed is "hawkish", GOLD corrects and stays above EMA21OANDA:XAUUSD remains weak on the recovery of the US Dollar and the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) later this week will be the focus of market attention. Traders need to prepare for a busy period of economic data and events in the United States (US), which will include inflation data, retail sales data and a speech from the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Jerome Powell on May 14. Earlier Monday, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson spoke to the media during a question-and-answer session at the Cleveland Fed. He said it would be appropriate to keep interest rates steady until there is further evidence that inflation will return to the central bank's 2% target. Jefferson described the Fed's policy as restrictive and said the lack of progress in inflation in the first quarter was worrying. Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release April consumer and manufacturing inflation data on May 14-15. If price pressures pick up again, the Fed could keeping interest rates higher “longer” and of course this is not beneficial for gold prices. Rising inflation expectations suggest the Fed may continue to delay expected interest rate cuts. This is not good for gold because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to interest-earning assets like bonds or cash. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials continued to factor into a sharp correction in gold prices on Monday. According to IMF data, Singapore increased its gold holdings by 4,448 tons to 236,610 tons in March 2024; Iraq increased its gold holdings by 3,079 tons to 145,661 tons in February 2024; Poland increased its gold holdings by 11,626 tons to 145,721 tons; 4,666 tons to 363,371 tons in April 2024. Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD outlook On the daily chart, although the gold price has corrected significantly from the upper channel edge to maintain the main downtrend price channel, the correction from the $2,366 technical point is of note to readers in the release of the issue. The interim week is also being constrained by the EMA21 level and the technical point of 2,330USD. The fact that gold is still above EMA21 does not make it eligible to fall more. However, once gold moves below $2,330 it will be eligible for more declines with the highest short-term target being the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. During the day, gold is still trending downward and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,335 – 2,330USD Resistance: 2,353 – 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2349 ⬆️TP2: 2344 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2305 - 2307 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2312 ⬆️TP2: 2317
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
PPI rises, but GOLD is supported by USD and YieldsOANDA:XAUUSD remained strong as the Dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, although data showed US producer prices rose more than expected in April, suggesting inflation remained high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that his confidence that inflation will continue to cool is no longer as high as it was at the beginning of the year and that the Fed needs to be patient before cutting interest rates. “I would say (the producer price index) is actually quite mixed,” Powell said. As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, Powell noted that the Fed's current restrictive stance may take "longer than expected to take effect and reduce inflation." “I do think the real issue is keeping policy at current interest rates longer than expected,” Powell said. According to the latest producer price index (which measures the price of goods produced by manufacturers), wholesale prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, above the market consensus of 0. 3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, "core" PPI also rose 0.5% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% increase. However, it is worth noting that the monthly price increase in March was revised down to 0.1% from the initial increase of 0.2%. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April as the cost of services and goods rose sharply, prompting traders to cut bets on the first interest rate cut in September. As a basic rule, the newly released PPI data is not beneficial for gold prices. However, because the Dollar and US Bond Yields faked together, gold was chosen and increased in price. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.7% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.3%. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. The focus now turns to US consumer price data due today (Wednesday), which could provide clearer guidance on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year . Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has increased significantly after receiving support from EMA21, which readers noticed in previous publications. However, the gains were limited by the price channel with an important resistance level noted at 2,366USD. In the short term, if gold breaks and rises above the $2,366 technical level it will be eligible for further upside with confirmation of a bearish channel being broken above. This means that open short positions should be reasonably protected behind the $2,366 level. On the other hand, at the time this publication was being completed, gold was still trending down from the price channel, with a new downtrend to be opened if gold managed to fall below the EMA21, confirmed by a drop below 2,330USD level, then the target level is noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci point. In the short term, gold still tends to decrease in price and the bullish case is noted by readers above. Below are the notable technical levels for the day. Support: 2,335 – 2,330USD Resistance: 2,360 – 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2397 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2381 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2321 - 2323 ⚰️SL: 2317 ⬆️TP1: 2328 ⬆️TP2: 2333
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD’s recent period of consolidationGold ended the week higher after a late rally on Thursday and Friday. It had initially pulled back from its all-time high due to trendline resistance. The precious metal is expected to react to the latest US inflation data, which affects Treasury yields, interest rate expectations, and the US dollar. Gold bulls are hopeful that softer CPI data will drive the metal higher and test the all-time high. Gold broke its recent consolidation period, surpassing the resistance at $2,340/oz. Buyers pushed the price to a three-week high on Friday, and gold opened above the 20-day moving average. If it can stay above this level, further gains are expected. The ongoing situation in the Middle East may also contribute to increased demand for gold. In the near future, the trend of gold price is still being noticed by the falling price channel but it also has technical conditions to increase the price, but with the closing price position as shown in the chart, gold can still decrease. adjusted to test the EMA21 and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,335 – 2,330 – 2,305USD Resistance: 2,366 – 2,378USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2397 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2381 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2341
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
AUDUSD's long-term bearish trend may eventually fadeAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Q2 FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK The Australian Dollar has been weak against the US Dollar in recent years, including 2024. However, there may be some positive news for Australian currency bulls, mainly due to weakness in the US Dollar rather than strong economic performance in Australia. Rising US interest rates and the safe-haven status of the Greenback have negatively impacted the Australian Dollar. Despite the Australian economy performing better than some Western peers during difficult times, this is not reflected in the AUD/USD chart. The US Federal Reserve is confident that interest rates will decrease this year, which has caused the value of the US dollar to decline. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar has shown some improvement. Although Australian borrowing costs are currently high, the Reserve Bank of Australia is hesitant to make any changes until they are certain that inflation will reach their target range. The recent inflation numbers in Australia were lower than last year's peak but still above the RBA's mandate. Therefore, with the possibility of lower US rates and unchanged rates in Australia, the Australian Dollar is expected to receive some support. Relations between Australia and China show signs of improving, but there are limits to this due to Australia's involvement in the 'AUKUS' defense arrangement with the United States and Britain, which China opposes. SIGNIFICANT AUD GAINS MAY HAVE TO WAIT The Aussie may receive support from a weaker Dollar and a less risk-averse market. The full effect may be seen later this year with expected Fed rate cuts. Australian banks predict AUD/USD to be above 0.70 by the end of 2024. If US inflation allows for planned Fed cuts, the Australian Dollar could stabilize and potentially rise cautiously. The view that US rates will decrease may face risks. The length of time it takes for rates to go down could be longer than expected. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to decrease risk appetite, even without any other issues arising. Additionally, the currency has been declining against the US Dollar since early 2021, and any increases this year are unlikely to reverse that trend.
by Xayah_trading
4
EURUSD pushed higher on ThursdayEURUSD pushed higher on Thursday after bouncing off technical support at 1.0725, with prices challenging a key ceiling near 1.0790, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages intersect. If this barrier fails to contain buyers, the next stop is likely to be trendline resistance at 1.0810. On further strength, we could see a move towards a major Fibonacci threshold at 1.0865. Conversely, should the market undergo a reversal and pullback, initial support emerges at 1.0725, followed by 1.0695. Vigorous defense of this floor is crucial for bulls to stave off a more significant drop; failure to do so could pave the way for a descent towards 1.0645. Subsequent losses may bring into play the April lows at 1.0600.
by Xayah_trading
The Middle East is hot again, GOLD skyrocketedOANDA:XAUUSD jumped as weak US initial jobless claims data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the US dollar, along with tensions. New tensions in the Middle East attract risk haven demand. Data released by the United States on Thursday showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased by 22,000 in the week of May 4 to 231,000, the highest level since late August last year and higher than US expectations. economists are 215,000. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US is higher than expected and previous reports, showing that the economy is losing momentum. This could influence the Fed's future monetary policy decisions as they acknowledge that they are focused on a dual mandate (full employment and inflation.) San Francisco Fed President Daly said Thursday that the Fed would consider cutting interest rates if the job market worsens. Interest rates are currently holding back the economy, but it may take "longer time" to bring inflation back to target. Israel said on May 9 that ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip in the Egyptian capital Cairo had broken down and the Israeli army would continue to attack in the city of Rafah, southern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials also said the Israeli delegation left Cairo that day. According to reports from Egypt's Cairo News TV channel on May 9, negotiators from Hamas, Israel, Qatar and the US left Egypt that day after ceasefire negotiations in Gaza entered into. deadlock. According to a Reuters report on May 8, Hamas said on May 8 that it was not willing to make further concessions to Israel in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. On May 8, Israel continued to use tanks and warplanes to attack the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, and threatened to launch a large-scale attack on this city. . Their troops entered the city through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on the 7th, cutting off vital aid channels and the only exit for evacuating the wounded. In general, the fundamental picture is leaning towards the possibility of more support for gold prices, especially as the geopolitical situation has new escalation points. This causes shelter demand to cover the market and in all cases of widespread risk, gold is always chosen as the top shelter asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After a long period of accumulation, the gold price finally broke the accumulation triangle in yesterday's trading session, and it is worth noting that gold brought price activity back above the EMA21 level. In the short term, gold is still technically limited by the upper edge of the price channel and this is also the closest current resistance, noted at 2,366 USD. In case the price channel is broken, gold is eligible to continue to increase even more with the highest level at the all-time peak of 2,430 USD. Since the resistance at the upper channel edge is the most notable technical level currently, open short positions should be protected once this level is broken. On the other hand, if gold remains within the price channel, it is still likely to retest the $2,330 technical level in the short term. During the day, gold price is still in the downtrend price channel and technical levels will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,330USD Resistance: 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2366 - 2364 ⚰️SL: 2370 ⬆️TP1: 2359 ⬆️TP2: 2354 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2317 - 2319 ⚰️SL: 2313 ⬆️TP1: 2324 ⬆️TP2: 2329
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 13 - May 17]Gold prices surged to a three-week high of $2,375 an ounce on Friday due to weak U.S. economic data. The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence index fell to 67.4, lower than expectations. Additionally, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims, reaching the highest level since last August. Investors are now awaiting next week's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could greatly affect gold prices and the financial market overall. If inflation data released next week shows a slowdown, it could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Financial markets expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in September, which could increase the appeal of gold due to lower interest rates. Traders currently see a 25% chance of a 0.5% rate cut in July, rising to nearly 49% in September. Changes in these expectations could impact gold prices. Data from the CFTC shows a decrease in gold futures contracts in the week ending May 7. Financial data and economic events next week: - Tuesday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in Amsterdam, Netherlands; - Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), US retail sales, New York Fed Empire State Survey; - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. 📌Gold broke out of an accumulation triangle and has shown two days of significant increases on the daily chart. It surpassed EMA21 and the price channel edge, signaling a potential breakout. If it breaks the bearish channel and goes above $2,366, it could enter a bull run. To confirm bearish conditions, gold would need to fall below EMA21 and stay below $2,330. The current support level is $2,330. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price returns to around the 2320 barrier, and selling if the price rises around the 2400 barrier.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD enters accumulation when there is little fundamental impactThe story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lower than March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 64.8% from 55% before the report. However, the US Dollar has been boosted by recent hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Nir Kashkari, who said the Fed could continue to raise interest rates and set the stage for higher federal funds rates. if inflation does not continue its downward trend. This week's economic calendar will mainly focus on news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. In general, throughout this week there was no data or events of a very sudden nature, so gold is also less subject to fundamental impacts and is suitable for the current state of narrow range movement. Gold keeping its price activity below EMA21 gives it more room to fall. However, with the current market context, without many fundamental impacts, gold prices may continue to move in a narrow range and enter accumulation. The accumulation area is noticed by EMA21 and the Fibonacci 0.236% level, in which EMA21 is the resistance and Fibonacci 0.236% is the support. If gold falls below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the short-term target level being the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, even if price activity rises above the EMA21 level, gold price will still be limited by the 2,365 level and the upper edge of the price channel because the current technical trend is still down in the short term. During the day, gold has a technical outlook of moving sideways and accumulating with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291 ⚰️SL: 2285 ⬆️TP1: 2296 ⬆️TP2: 2301
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD accumulates and shrinks,the market lacks fundamental impactScarce U.S. economic data will keep investors focused on Federal Reserve officials in the week following last Friday's U.S. jobs report. Gold prices are trading around 2,312USD/oz after reaching a daily high yesterday of 2,321USD/oz. The story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lagging March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. "Lack of progress" in inflation has pushed back expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut from July to September. However, the market still expects three interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. in this year. The report said that the lack of progress since the beginning of this year means that it will take longer for Fed policymakers to believe that inflation is continuing to fall toward the 2% target. They expect 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE to be "near or below" 2% by the end of the year, in which case it would be "too late" to wait until after September to cut rates . This week's economic calendar will take a closer look at news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is generally still entering the stage of accumulating attention from readers in previous publications. However, gold prices are also becoming more narrowly accumulated as depicted by the green triangle on the chart. In terms of overall factors, gold prices are more likely to decline because the main trend has not changed, noticed by the short-term downward price channel and the latest pressure from the 21-day moving average EMA21. As long as the gold price remains below the EMA21, it still has enough room to fall in the short term. Meanwhile, gold could open a new bearish cycle if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level is aimed around the lower channel edge and upper channel edge, more likely to be the 0.382 Fibonacci level %. Temporarily, gold prices will continue to tend to accumulate without much macroeconomic impact on the market. But the technical conditions still favor the possibility of price reduction as mentioned above. During the day, notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2268 - 2270 ⚰️SL: 2264 ⬆️TP1: 2275 ⬆️TP2: 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Recovery from Fib0.236%, support and pressure factors for GOLDRisk appetite improved as bets increased that the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy sooner than expected. This comes after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy continued to create jobs, albeit at a slower pace. Basic support for OANDA:XAUUSD Market participants continue to digest the latest data from the United States as the April nonfarm payrolls report was weaker than expected. If the next inflation report is weaker than expected, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later in the year will be confirmed (certainly). Fundamental pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD The latest news comes from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. On May 6, Hamas issued a statement agreeing with the ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip proposed by mediators. This information has cooled the market's risk aversion, putting gold prices under pressure to adjust. Hamas said in a statement that Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh informed Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed and Egyptian General Intelligence Director Abbas Kamal about the decision by phone that day. An Israeli official said Israel received Hamas's response to Egypt's ceasefire and agreement to release detainees. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari issued a statement on May 6 saying that Hamas had accepted the ceasefire proposal mediated by Egypt. The Israeli side is carefully considering every content of the proposal and making every effort to promote related negotiations and "all possibilities" to release the detainees. At the same time, the Israeli army will continue military operations in the Gaza Strip. According to Cairo News TV on May 6, citing sources from the Egyptian intelligence agency, the Egyptian delegation responsible for mediating the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that day received a "positive response" from Hamas and Israel. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level but the upside recovery is also limited and is under pressure to react to the downside from the 21-day moving average EMA21. On the other hand, the short-term trend of gold price is still an uptrend from the price channel, as long as gold is still operating below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it still tends to be down in the short term. Currently, gold is technically at $2,322 and if it breaks below this level gold could continue to decline to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level once more. In case the gold price continues to sell off below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new bearish cycle with the maximum target level at the 0.382% Fibonacci level. During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices is noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,322 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2303 - 2305 ⚰️SL: 2299 ⬆️TP1: 2310 ⬆️TP2: 2315
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD still has the ability to recoverAfter the release of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data lower than market expectations, gold quickly increased in price, reaching 2,320 USD/ounce. However, this high level did not last long due to profit-taking pressure and gold quickly fell to close weekly at 2,301 USD/ounce. Although the easing cycle may be delayed, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made clear that interest rates will not go higher. “I think it's unlikely that the next policy change will be to raise interest rates,” Powell said at a news conference. I would say that is unlikely to happen.” Adding to gold's volatility was Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly less than expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth fell short of expectations. While the jobs report supported interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing up gold prices, uncertainty about timing continued to dominate market sentiment and investors were likely to Take advantage of the recovery to take profits. In the coming time, gold traders still need to pay attention to macro data and Fed speeches to have more data to guide their assessment of when the Fed will cut interest rates. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer and upbeat market sentiment have become key factors weakening safe-haven demand for gold. However, at the latest FOMC meeting the prospect of a less hawkish Fed led to widespread dollar weakness and helped limit gold's decline, so caution is warranted. A basic direction for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a price decrease. Data to watch out for is data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures fell by 9,018 contracts to 167,139 contracts for the week ends April 30. Next week, the market will also witness the sudden appearance of a number of central bank governors. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina; New York Fed President John William James will speak at a conference in California; and Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby will speak at the Minnesota Economic Club. Meanwhile, investors will focus on data on consumer confidence and inflation expectations later this week. Economic data to watch next week Wednesday: 10-year bond auction Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, 30-year bond auction Friday: Preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Last week, gold performed quite stably with a short-term bearish structure from the trend price channel. Stay within range with nearest support from 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and resistance at $2,322 in the short term and beyond at EMA21 and $2,345. Although the expected recovery at 2,365 USD continued to fail last week, maintaining above the original price level of 2,300 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level should be considered positive conditions for recovery expectations. continues to appear next week. As long as the bearish does not break below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has room to recover with a target level of around $2,365. However, in case the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it could cause the gold price to drop even more with a possible price drop to 2.223 or more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level. Therefore, if the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it is not advisable to open long positions, it is also time to protect open long positions around 2,284USD. The point of complete breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci level should be determined by price activity below the lower edge of the price channel. Next week, the prospect of a bullish recovery inside the price channel will be noticed again with the following technical levels. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,345 – 2,365USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading