Get started

Xayahtrading

GOLD goes down when the USD reverses to increase in priceGold price today, March 22, suddenly went down in the context of the USD reversing its price and US stocks rising sharply. After setting a record level of 2,211 USD/ounce in last night's trading session, today's world gold price plummeted 30 USD to 2,181 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on March 22. Gold prices weakened today in the context of the Swiss National Bank suddenly reducing interest rates. Meanwhile. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. As a result, investors focus on holding USD, helping this currency increase in price, which is detrimental to the gold market. Another development is that after the US announced it was ready to reduce interest rates three times in 2024, the US stock market continued to increase sharply. Many people have moved their equity capital, causing very little money to flow into precious metals. Today's world gold price drops by dozens of USD/ounce, which is inevitable. After the Fed meeting, gold prices are expected to reach the resistance level at $2,222/ounce. If this level is surpassed, it is likely that prices will reach between $2,228 - $2,234/ounce. In the long term, the Fed plans to cut interest rates three times this year starting in June, which will lead to a decline in USD compared to other currencies. Resistance: 2188 - 2195 Support: 2172 - 2168 - 2152 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continued to decline compared to the previous sessionWorld gold spot price is around 2,165 USD/ounce, down more than 16 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices on the international market continue to decline because the USD has not stopped its rise. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased sharply by 0.42% to 104,075 points at 6:05 a.m. this morning. The USD benefited from positive economic and employment information in the US in February, despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcing that it would reduce operating interest rates this year. The positive recovery of the US economy has helped investors escape capital from precious metals such as gold - an asset that ensures capital safety - to invest in profitable assets such as stocks and bonds. On March 21, the Dow Jones industrial index set a new peak, increasing nearly 0.7% to 39,781.37 points, the S&P 500 index increased 0.3% to 5,241.53 points, and the Nasdaq technology index Composite increased 0.2% to 16,401.84 points. Investors turned to investing in risky assets such as stocks, which shows that the market is somewhat reassured when the US economy remains strong despite interest rates remaining at a 20-year high and the Fed expected to cut reduce interest rates this year.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD remained motionless ahead of the Fed meetingThe Federal Reserve will announce its March monetary policy on Wednesday. Experts expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged, along with the quantitative tightening program. The focus will be on forward guidance, with the Fed likely stating that they won't lower borrowing costs until there is more confidence in inflation reaching 2 percent. The Fed may raise its GDP and core PCE deflator forecasts due to economic resilience and persistent price pressures. This could lead to a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two. The following table shows projections from the December FOMC meeting. If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction). Resistance: 2166 - 2175 - 2182 Support: 2146 - 2140 - 2137 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD Fed in spotlight – Bullish explosion or crash ahead?OANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK - Gold prices retreated this week but are still up more than 5% in March - The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will take center stage in the coming week Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell 1.05% this week to $2,155 due to higher U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. However, gold has maintained strong bullish momentum in March, with a gain of around 5.5% and recent all-time highs. Earlier this month, gold prices surged as investors anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rally further intensified after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers were close to gaining confidence in the inflation outlook. However, recent consumer price data suggests that progress on disinflation may be stalling or reversing, causing a shift in the market sentiment for gold. With inflation risks emerging and reflected in recent CPI and PPI reports, the central bank may adopt a more cautious stance, indicating the need for patience in removing policy measures. This could result in fewer rate cuts than initially expected. The Federal Reserve's plans will be clarified next week when they announce their March decision. While policy settings are anticipated to remain unchanged, there could be revised guidance and forecasts based on new macroeconomic information, as data-dependency is a key principle. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed hinted that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing this year and market pricing has converged to this estimate of late. If policymakers were to indicate an intention to deliver fewer cuts than what’s currently discounted, we could see bond yields and the U.S. dollar push higher. This should be bearish for gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices fell this week, but managed to hold above support at $2,150. Bulls must actively protect this technical zone to prevent an escalation of selling pressure; failure to do so may trigger a pullback towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the spotlight will be on $2,065. On the flip side, if buyers regain decisive control of the market and spark a bullish reversal from the metal’s current position, the first obstacle lies at the record peak established earlier this month at $2,195. Further upward movement will draw attention to trendline resistance near $2,205. Resistance: 2160 - 2165 - 2173 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125 - 2100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 18 - March 22]After increasing to 2,195 USD/oz last week, this week's gold price continuously adjusted from 2,188 USD/oz at one point to 2,150 USD/oz and closed at 2,156 USD/oz. Gold prices have increased sharply in recent times mainly due to purchases by central banks and investors buying gold in anticipation of the FED reducing interest rates next June. Therefore, the rising inflation data has reduced this expectation, causing them to sell gold to take profits to hedge against risks. Next week will be a big challenge for gold prices when the FED will meet to discuss monetary policy and make economic forecasts. Any rhetoric to push back interest rate cuts could create some selling pressure on gold prices next week. Although at next week's meeting, the FED may not continue to postpone the interest rate cut date beyond June, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid continued adjustment pressure due to the possibility of ETFs. will continue to sell gold, while investors also make similar moves to hedge against risks before the FED meeting. 📌Technically, on the D1 technical analysis chart, the price is starting to show signs of a correction, and this correction may find its way back to the support area of 2090-2100, around the 50 Fib mark of the Fib Retracement, also around moving average EMA34 D1. The trading plan for next week will consider selling around 2200, buying around 2090.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD had its first weekly decline in 4 weeksGold prices stabilized on Friday (March 15) but recorded their first weekly decline in four weeks, as investors lowered expectations for US interest rate cuts after data this week showed pressure. price increases. At the end of the trading session on March 15, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,159.99 USD/oz. This week, the gold contract lost 0.8%, recording the first weekly decline since mid-February 2024, after reaching a record high of 2,194.99 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts retreated 0.3% to 2,161.5 USD/oz. This week's data shows that CPI consumer prices in the US increased stronger than forecast in February and PPI producer prices also show that inflation is somewhat stable. Gold is already pricing in any positive boost it can get from expectations that interest rates will fall… if inflation starts to rise again, that means policymakers will have to maintain Tighter monetary policy for longer periods of time. Higher-than-expected inflation maintains pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high, thereby putting pressure on gold. Non-yielding precious metals are also used as an inflation hedge. The USD index saw its strongest weekly increase since mid-January 2024, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Lower Canadian CPI brings interest rate cut closerCANADIAN CPI, OANDA:USDCAD ANALYSIS - Canadian inflation slows more than expected in February – raising USD/CAD - Markets bring a potential BoC cut closer while delaying the onset of Fed cuts - USD/CAD’s bullish response tapered off but pair heads for channel resistance CANADIAN INFLATION SLOWS MORE THAN EXPECTED IN FEBRUARY – RAISING USD/CAD Canadian inflation, both core and headline measures, came in lower than last month's figures. CPI was well below the estimated 3.1% at 2.8%. The core measure reached lows not seen in over two years, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider loosening financial conditions. In comparison to countries with inflation rates of 8% or higher, Canada stands out as a standout performer, as shown in the graph below. Annual Percentage Change in Inflation (CPI) OANDA:USDCAD BULLISH RESPONSE TAPERED OFF BUT PAIR HEADS FOR CHANNEL RESISTANCE USD/CAD continued its bullish momentum after softer inflation data but lost some steam during the New York session. The current upward move was triggered by a bounce off channel support at 1.3420, breaking above the 200-day simple moving average and reaching 1.3500. 1.3500 has previously acted as both support and resistance since October 2022. The current trend aims to test channel resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the major 2020-2022 move (1.3651). However, today's significant upper wick suggests that bulls may need to regroup before pushing higher. Canada has been successful in keeping inflation within the targeted range of 1-3% set by the Bank. Based on implied probabilities from rate markets, the Bank of Canada may need to prepare for a rate cut in June. There is a 62% chance of a cut at that time. The Canadian dollar may face pressure due to consistently low inflation, which could lead to easing monetary policy. On the other hand, market estimates for when the Fed may cut interest rates have been pushed back from June to July. This delay in monetary easing supports the US dollar, as it is expected to have a higher interest rate compared to most G7 currencies for a little longer.
by Xayah_trading
Gold price coils furtherOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis and Chart - Gold trading on either side of $2,165/oz. but a break may be near. The latest US PPI data – wholesale inflation - came in above market expectations, and last month’s print, but the dollar and US rate cut forecasts, remain little changed. US Retail Sales in February picked up, turning positive, but again missed market forecasts. With the greenback barely moving, gold has found it difficult to make a move, one way or the other. This period of consolidation is starting to look like a new bullish pennant formation, although it will need another couple of candles to see if this plays out. If this pattern is formed, gold is likely to push further ahead and make a fresh record high. Support is seen at $2,148/oz. ahead of $2,128/oz. Retail trader data show 40.95% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.53% higher than yesterday and 2.21% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.91% higher than yesterday and 6.62% higher than last week. On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible. Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance: 2170 - 2175 - 2185 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD turning down after a series of "shocking" increasesFORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD – MARKET PSYCHOLOGY Retail trading activity shows a net short bias in gold, with the ratio between bearish and bullish positions currently at 1.47:1 as of late Tuesday afternoon. Overall, bullish bets on precious metals are 9.67% lower than yesterday and 12.80% lower than they were popular a week ago. Meanwhile, bearish bets are down 0.31% from the previous session and 13.15% higher than last week. Gold prices declined in the context of the latest report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.2% over the same period last year, higher than experts' forecast of an increase of 3.2%. first%. The core CPI in February increased by 3.8% compared to the expected increase of 3.7%. In the medium and long term, the Fed will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. However, gold prices have increased very strongly since the end of 2023 and in the first 2 months of 2024. The possibility of gold prices continuing to skyrocket is no longer highly appreciated. Recently, many forecasts say that gold will increase in the second half of the year but at a slow pace. Most likely, gold price will reach 2,200 USD/ounce. In the short term, gold may face selling pressure to take profits. Although optimistic about gold's prospects, investors should be sensitive to the market's current speculative position. Speculative traders can reverse their positions very quickly if the market begins to turn. Resistance: 2170 - 2181 - 2190 Support: 2145 - 2137 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD rally will continue amid aggressive US interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS AND CHART - US rates markets fully price in a 25 basis point in June. - The path of least resistance for gold remains higher for now. The latest Fed commentary has led to financial markets pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut at the June 12th FOMC meeting. Three more rate cuts are also expected in 2024, with a high likelihood of a fourth cut. It's time for the US central bank to take action. The US economic calendar has important releases next week, with the US inflation report on Tuesday being the most notable. The latest comments from the Federal Reserve indicate that they are satisfied with the current disinflationary trend. A significant increase in either of the year-on-year inflation figures would be needed to alter or postpone the Fed's plan for interest rate cuts. The daily gold price chart is moving higher into new territory. Despite being overbought according to the CCI indicator, the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently risen from the previous day's closing price, making it challenging for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief period of consolidation with solid support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD US inflation previewUS CPI PREVIEW – OANDA:XAUUSD , US DOLLAR, STOCKS - The February’s U.S. inflation report will steal the spotlight on Tuesday morning - Any deviation of the official data from market expectations could trigger volatility Tuesday marks an important day for investors of all stripes as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February’s consumer price index survey, a key report that is anticipated to provide fresh insights into recent inflation dynamics and guide the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy outlook. In terms of projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.4% last month, bolstered by higher energy costs. This result would have kept the annual rate unchanged at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core gauge is seen increasing 0.3% m-o-m, leading to a minor downshift in the year-over-year reading to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%. US INFLATION TREND Focusing on the market response, official figures that closely align with Wall Street’s consensus estimates wouldn’t generate much volatility or alter sentiment in a meaningful way, but any large deviation in the CPI data relative to what’s priced-in could trigger large price swings across assets. For this reason, traders should closely track the economic calendar tomorrow morning. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR KEY ASSETS > UPSIDE SURPRISE (HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED CPI) A hotter-than-expected CPI report would confirm that January’s upside surprise was not a one-off event, but an indication that inflation may be reaccelerating and will be harder to defeat. Such an outcome might compel the Fed to revise its PCE forecast upward and potentially reduce the number of rate cuts envisioned for the year at its March meeting. This scenario should spark a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, pushing bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher. In response, gold prices and stocks could come under strong selling pressure. > SUBDUED REPORT (LOWER-THAN-FORECAST CPI) Cooler-than-forecast CPI readings would bolster the idea that last month’s data was an anomaly and that progress on disinflation continues. This could give the Fed greater confidence that inflation is on a sustained path towards the 2.0% target, validating the market’s outlook for multiple rate cuts in 2024 and the start of the easing cycle in June. In these circumstances, we may witness further retracement in yields and the U.S. dollar in the days and weeks ahead. This could inject fresh bullish momentum into gold prices and risk assets. Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly. Breakout + Test: 2185 waiting for Entry Buy Breakout + Test: 2175 waiting for Entry Sell Resistance: 2200 - 2205 - 2225 Support: 2175 - 2163 - 2151 - 2146 - 2137
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 11 - March 15]This week, international gold prices have continuously increased sharply, from 2,079 USD/oz to 2,195 USD/oz and closing at 2,178 USD/oz. Gold prices rose sharply as the US economy added 275,000 jobs in February 2024, surpassing expectations. However, there were downward revisions to job numbers in January and December. The unemployment rate in the US also increased from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February. Concerns arise about potential downward adjustments in future employment data releases. The US labor market seems to be starting to absorb the blow from the FED's continuous monetary tightening. This causes the market to increase expectations that the FED will start cutting interest rates next June. US inflation has decreased but slightly exceeded expectations. FED Chairman Powell is satisfied with the current data but wants more confirmation before cutting interest rates. The upcoming February CPI announcement will be closely watched. A higher than expected CPI may reduce rate cut expectations and lead to profit-taking by gold investors, while it could also increase gold prices further. While gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium and long term, they may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking before resuming their upward trend. 📌Technically, the gold price is in wave 5 of the Elliott wave model and could reach a target range of 2300 Fibo 361 to 2600 Fibo 461 based on Fib Extension milestones. It is difficult to predict the record high price without more information, so we need to wait for time to provide an answer. This week, the weekly fluctuation range is over 100, and the trading plan for next week includes selling near the 2300 resistance mark and buying if the price adjusts back to the 2100 resistance mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD still soaring despite positive employment figuresThe world gold spot price is around 2,179 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of nearly 19 USD/ounce compared to yesterday's trading session. The international financial market last night received more positive information about the February employment report in the US. Specifically, according to the US Department of Labor in February 2024, the non-agricultural sector created 275,000 new jobs, much higher than the previous prediction of 198,000 new jobs; higher than the adjusted figure of 229,000 new jobs in January. Only the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, remaining at 3.7% for the first time in 4 months. The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%. Average earnings per hour worked in February, a key measure of inflation, decreased slightly with wages rising 4.3%, lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%, an increase of only 0.1 % compared to January. Thus, the February employment report in the US was quite positive. Although the unemployment rate increased, the number of employed workers remained stable. Normally, positive employment data will help the USD strengthen and gold will decrease in price. However, this time is different, the conflict in the Red Sea has "heated up" again with the Houthi attack on the True Confidence ship, killing at least 3 crew members on March 6, despite The US naval coalition is there. This has caused the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal area to decrease sharply. The Houthi attack on commercial ships caused a crisis in the transportation of goods across the Red Sea and it will take several months, or even longer, to overcome. Manufacturing, trading and transportation businesses have to spend higher costs to meet international orders. This significantly affects the production and business activities of enterprises, as well as the growth of economies. Increased risks have caused investors to continue buying gold to preserve capital and seek profits.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD sets new peak, be cautious in speculative buyingGold prices broke records this week, reaching $2,150/ounce. The strong recovery was fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields on bets that the Federal Reserve could start cutting borrowing costs sooner than the Federal Reserve proposed. policy makers. While Fed Chairman Powell has signaled that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates and will need more evidence that inflation is approaching 2.0% on a sustainable basis before pulling the trigger, the Traders remain skeptical and are betting on an easing cycle starting as soon as June, partly due to a resurgence of the regional banking crisis. The divergence between Powell's message and market expectations appears to be driving bond yields lower, reinforcing the appeal of bullion. In this context, the yellow metal tends to rise when interest rates fall, as this reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. In any case, Friday's key US nonfarm payrolls report will be the final arbiter for Wall Street and the Fed. Economists predict the US economy will add 200,000 jobs in February, but cannot rule out the possibility of a bullish surprise as recent jobs data has consistently come in above estimates. A strong jobs report could vindicate Powell's relatively hawkish stance, causing traders to ease dovish bets on the FOMC's policy direction. This scenario will weigh heavily on gold prices. Conversely, weak jobs growth could bolster confidence in an early rate cut, sending the precious metal even higher. FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices surpassed December's peak of $2,150 this week, setting a new all-time high. If this bullish breakout holds in the near term, the bulls may gain the confidence to mount an attack on the trendline resistance at $2,185. Despite bullion's positive technical outlook, caution is still needed as overbought conditions could lead to a market reversal. That means, if the sellers return, all eyes will be on the $2,150 level. Below this area, there is a lack of significant support until the $2,090 level, increasing the risk of a deep retracement in the event of a breakdown. Further down, the focus turns to $2,065, followed by $2,040.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continue to rise, breaking all recordsChairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell gave his first speech in two days of testimony before the US Congress on March 6-7. He continued to affirm that the Fed will consider adjusting interest rates at any time. Interest rates will begin to decrease this year, but it is still unknown when. Because this agency is still concerned about the risks caused by inflation, it does not want to loosen policy too early. The USD saw a sell-off and US bond yields fell slightly after Mr. Powell's remarks, supporting a spike in gold prices. In a recent note, there is a 25% probability of gold reaching a record level of 2,300 USD/ounce in the second half of the year. The basic outlook they forecast for gold prices is still 2,150 USD/ounce, and also believes that gold will likely climb to 3,000 USD/ounce in the next 12-16 months. Gold acts as an "anti-recession hedge" in developed markets and is increasingly seeing positive impacts from the instability surrounding the US election next November. Very optimistic about the prospect of a breakthrough in gold prices. In the short term, gold prices may increase by several hundred USD. In the long term, in the next 1-2 years, the price could reach 2,700 - 2,800 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD's all-time high is still within touching distanceGold’s recent rally accelerated last Friday, driven higher by weak US economic data, and the rally back towards a new all-time high has continued this week with the precious metal posting a $2,141.8/oz. peak yesterday. This left gold just $3 short of printing a new ATH. The technical outlook for gold remains positive and suggests that the precious metal will continue to move higher. The drivers for the latest move higher in gold remain the same, the upcoming series of US interest rate cuts – three 25 basis point moves seen this year, starting at the June FOMC meeting – ongoing haven buying on geopolitical fears in Ukraine and the Middle East, and heavy central bank buying as bankers diversify away from the US dollar. Later today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify to the House Financial Services Committee (15:00 UK). Mr. Powell is not expected to lay out any timetable for interest rate cuts just yet, although any discussions about inflation, or the US labor market, will be keenly followed. The next FOMC meeting is on March 20th and this may be a more appropriate setting for official rate cut discussions. The daily gold chart remains positive with a prior level of resistance at $2,081/oz. now turning into support. Before that, the $2,114/oz level may act as a buffer after closing there on Monday and opening there on Tuesday. The CCI indicator at the bottom of the chart does show gold to be extremely overbought although this reading is starting to move lower. There may be a short period of consolidation ahead but overall the path of least resistance for gold is higher.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD breakout continues to increase depending on NFPGold prices have staged a notable rally over the past week, surpassing key technical levels to reach their highest point since December 2023. By late Friday, the precious metal had recorded gains A significant weekly increase of 2.33%, reaching nearly 2,088 USD. Bullion's bullish momentum can partly be attributed to a moderate drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a reaction triggered by two key economic reports that have investors weighing the impact of them to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Looking ahead, traders should pay attention to upcoming US February jobs data to better understand the market trajectory. A blockbuster report reflecting strong numbers for January would undermine hopes of the Fed moving to cut interest rates soon, potentially sending gold prices tumbling. On the other hand, if nonfarm payrolls come in lower than forecast and hint at growing economic headwinds, interest rate expectations could be revised to a more dovish direction. put pressure on yields. This scenario is ready to support precious metals.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD soaring, surpassing all-time peaksWorld gold price stood at 2,112 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 32 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. There was a time when the price of this precious metal reached 2,120 USD/ounce. Thus, the world gold price has set a new peak, this is the highest level of all time. The previous peak was set in early December 2023 at a price of 2,110 USD/ounce. Weaker-than-expected US economic data released last week pushed US real interest rates down and this is what triggered the rise in gold prices. Expect gold prices to break out as recent price action has created some very bullish technical patterns. Gold is forming consistent bullish patterns. The price spikes, consolidates for a period of time and then we see another price move higher. Gold sought to break even higher. From a technical standpoint, it looks like the expected target is for gold to go up by a few hundred dollars in the short term, but longer term, I'm looking at $2,700, $2,800, perhaps in a year or two next. Technically, gold price has very good potential.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 04 - March 08]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,024 USD/oz to 2,088 USD/oz and closed at 2,083 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to seasonal factors and the expectation that the FED will cut interest rates soon. Next week, two factors that could significantly affect gold prices are the testimony of FED Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the release of the US February nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. US NFP in February is forecasted to reach 190,000 jobs, a decrease from the previous period's 353,000 jobs. High interest rates have hindered business expansion and caused a reduction in operations. This may prompt the FED to consider cutting interest rates to support the labor market and the US economy, which could lead to higher gold prices. Conversely, if NFP exceeds expectations, the FED may delay interest rate cuts, potentially affecting gold prices negatively.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD jumped to nearly 2,100 USD/ozWorld gold price stood at 2,082 USD/ounce, up sharply to 38 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. This is the highest price of this precious metal in more than 2 months. The increase in gold prices comes from the market receiving information about gloomy US economic data. This contributes to strengthening investors' expectations about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) loosening monetary policy. Gold is on an upward trend because the market believes that the Fed will loosen monetary policy in the middle of this year, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold bars. In 3-4 months, prices will hit a record if we continue to see weak economic data and the market believes the Fed is ready to cut interest rates. Strong central bank buying is also supporting the market. Major economies in the world simultaneously announced less positive economic data. This also supports gold prices to increase in the coming sessions. However, experts warn that this week's gold speculative position is expected to only move sideways compared to before, so it is possible that gold will be sold off as early as next week as investors take profits. Therefore, investors should carefully observe the market to determine appropriate buying and selling points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fundamentals and technicals are unevenGold prices (XAU/USD) climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,040 threshold and reaching their highest level since early February at one point during the trading session, although gains seemed to be capped by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The precious metal’s positive performance was fueled, in part, by falling U.S. Treasury yields, which reacted to an in-line economic report. Specifically, January's core PCE deflator clocked in at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, just as projected. Investors, rattled by the recent CPI and PPI data, braced for further inflation pain, but were relieved when the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge landed precisely on its expected mark. This gave gold bulls an excuse to reengage long positions. Looking ahead, traders should not be taken aback if Thursday's rally proves to be short-lived. When markets come to terms with the fact that sluggish progress on disinflation and looser financial conditions could prompt the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle, bullion may face renewed downward pressure. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Focusing on gold’s outlook, technicals and fundamental analysis are currently at odds. That said, Thursday's bullish breakout, which saw XAU/USD push past trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at $2,035, is clearly a positive sign. Should this move be sustained, a rally towards $2,065 may be on the horizon. Above this area, all eyes will be on $2,090. On the contrary, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal below $2,035, sentiment toward the yellow metal could quickly sour. Under these circumstances, bears may gain confidence to mount an assault on the 100-day simple moving average, located around $2,010/$2,005. Further declines below this support zone could pave the way for a retreat towards $1,990.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD competing against US PCE dataThe U.S. dollar edged higher today, but displayed measured strength amid subdued U.S. Treasury yields. A sense of caution permeated markets as traders anxiously awaited the looming release of the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This economic report can greatly influence the central bank’s monetary policy outlook so it could bring volatility in the days ahead. Forecasts suggest that January's core CPI rose 0.4% m-o-m, resulting in a slight deceleration in the yearly print from 2.9% to 2.8%, a baby step in the right direction. In any case, the substantially higher-than-anticipated CPI and PPI readings for the same period underscore a key point: investors may be underestimating inflation risks, leaving them vulnerable to an upside surprise in tomorrow’s data. A hot PCE report indicating minimal progress on disinflation may prompt Wall Street to scale back bets on the number of rate cuts envisioned for 2024, while increasing the odds of the FOMC delaying its easing cycle to the second half of the year. A hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations should exert upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, boosting the U.S. dollar but weighing on gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rose on Wednesday but encountered resistance around the $2,035 mark, a key technical roadblock where a downtrend line converges with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to firmly protect this ceiling to thwart bullish momentum; any lapse could trigger an upward surge towards $2,065. Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of sellers and XAU/USD takes a turn to the downside, the first key floor to watch emerges at $2,005, near the 100-day simple moving average. Should selling pressure continue, traders may eye $1,990, followed by $1,995 as potential support levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased despite reduced volatility due to falling dollarWorld gold price stood at 2,032 USD/ounce, equivalent to the price at the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices increased slightly and then decreased when the market received mixed economic information. Specifically, negative information comes from the Conference Board survey results published on February 27 showing that the US consumer confidence index decreased in February to 106.7, down from 110. 90 revised down in January. Consumer optimism fell more than expected as economists forecast 114.8. In particular, the expectations index decreased to 79.8 from 81.5. “An expectation index below 80 typically signals an impending recession,” the report said. On the contrary, the positive data is that the February production index in the US increased from negative 15 points last month to negative 5 points this month and higher than the negative 9 points previously forecast. The US house price index in December decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%. When consumer confidence declines, it will affect the consumption of goods, as well as production. The sharp increase in the manufacturing index shows that the US economy is still recovering positively. Falling house prices will impact the consumer price index as well. This affects the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Economic data is mixed, so investors are still cautious in trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1