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Looking ahead to NFP, GOLD's technical structure remains stableOANDA:XAUUSD is still trying to operate above its $2,300 base price after Thursday's wild swings, with the market focusing particularly on non-farm payrolls data to be released on this trading day. ADP jobs data exceeded expectations in April and March data was revised upward, suggesting the US labor market remains strong and stable. The US ADP jobs report released on Wednesday showed that US ADP employment increased by 192,000 in April, above expectations of 180,000. The value before March was revised up from 184,000 to 208,000. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 208,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 27, compared with expectations of 212,000 and a previous figure of 207,000. The gold market's focus has shifted to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will provide the latest data for the market to further assess the state of the US labor market and the outlook for employment. monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Surveys show the U.S. nonfarm working population is expected to increase by 243,000 in April after seasonal adjustments, compared with a gain of 303,000 in March. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% in April. Investors will also be watching data on wages and workforce participation. The survey found that average hourly wages in the United States in April are expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 4.0% annually. The US labor force participation rate in April is expected to be unchanged at 62.7%. If Nonfarm Payrolls data is weaker than expected, or just as weak, this should be seen as a positive for gold prices as it will resonate with the Fed's less hawkish stance during the meeting. The recent FOMC made the US Dollar less attractive and boosted precious metals. On the gold price technical chart, after gold reached the technical level of 2,322 USD, it was under pressure to fall again but the temporary decline is also limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. In terms of technical structure, not much has changed compared to yesterday's issue, so readers can check back here. Notable prices are also listed as follows. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2321 - 2319 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2314 ⬆️TP2: 2309 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Fib level 2.618%, GOLD is under pressure before the FOMC meetingOANDA:XAUUSD spot faced strong selling pressure and fell to a one-week low ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell for the third straight month in April, falling to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Pessimism prevails ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged amid lingering signs of inflationary pressures. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer and send a hawkish message. Gold investors' attention turns to FOMC and Nonfarm Payrolls The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is about a 91.6% chance that the Fed will choose to leave policy unchanged again in June. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April jobs report. A sharp decline in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) growth could cause an immediate dollar sell-off . Even if the data doesn't have a very profound impact on expectations for a rate cut in June, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 53.3% chance that the Fed's policy rate will be unchanged in September. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data is stronger than expected, especially if it goes coupled with higher wage inflation data, could increase expectations that the Fed will take no action in September and cause gold prices to fall sharply this weekend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold fell sharply in yesterday's trading session after breaking the $2,322 level and now this technical level becomes the closest current resistance. Along with that, gold is also stopping its decline when approaching the 2.618% Fibonacci extension level, and this is also the current closest support level. If gold continues to sell off breaking below the 2.618% Fibonacci extension it will likely experience further selling pressure with no chance of a recovery towards the upper channel edge and beyond the 3.618 Fibonacci level. %. Therefore, for protection levels open long positions should be installed behind the 2.618% Fibonacci extension level. On the other hand, the fact that gold still holds above the Fibonacci retracement level still "raises hope" for those who opened long positions to see a recovery to retest the level of 2,322 USD. However, currently, in the short term, gold does not have enough conditions to increase in price as price activity is in a short-term downtrend from the price channel and price activity is below EMA21. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,300 – 2,322USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2326 - 2324 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2319 ⬆️TP2: 2314 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD rises after US PMI shockEURO ( OANDA:EURUSD ) ANALYSIS - Flash PMI data provides unflattering US outlook, Europe improves - EURUSD rises after US PMI shock FLASH PMI DATA PROVIDES UNFLATTERING US OUTLOOK, EUROPE IMPROVES German and EU manufacturing remains depressed but encouraging rises in flash services PMI results suggest improvement in Europe. UK manufacturing slumped well into contraction but also benefitted from another rise on the services front. It was the US that provided the most surprising numbers, witnessing a decline in services PMI and a drop into contractionary territory for manufacturing – weighing on the dollar. OANDA:EURUSD RISES AFTER US PMI SHOCK EURUSD reacted to lackluster flash PMI data in the US by covering recent losses. The euro attempted to break above the 1.0700 level after recovering from the oversold zone around the 1.0600 low. The pair has maintained a longer-term downtrend reflecting the different monetary policy stances adopted by the ECB and the Fed. A strong labor market, robust growth and rising inflation have forced the Fed to delay plans to cut interest rates, which has strengthened the dollar against G7 currencies. Surprising US PMI data suggests the economy may not be as strong as initially predicted and some weakness could emerge. However, it will take more than one quick data point to reverse the story. If the bulls take control from here, 1.07645 becomes the next interesting upside level, followed by 1.0800 where the 200 SMA lies. On the other hand, 1.06437 and 1.0600 remain support levels. Interesting support if the long-term trend continues.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD bounced back on MondayAfter a subdued performance late last week, the EUR/USD bounced back on Monday, challenging overhead resistance at 1.0725. A successful clearance of this technical barrier could pave the way for a move towards 1.0755. Further strength from this point onwards would shift focus to the 1.0800 handle, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge. In the event of a market retracement, support is expected near the psychological level of 1.0700, followed by April’s swing lows around 1.0600. Prices are likely to establish a base in this region during a pullback ahead of a possible turnaround. However, if a breakdown occurs, the possibility of a rebound diminishes, as this move could lead to a drop towards the 2023 trough at 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
2
Eyes on Fed, GOLD in narrow range with bearish conditionsMarket attention turns to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on May 1 and upcoming nonfarm payrolls data. Data released last week showed US gross domestic product fell short of target, while the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, stagnated at growth of 2.8% year-on-year for the second consecutive month. Key data due for release this week include European inflation and US labor market indicators, while the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a two-day meeting on Tuesday and Friday. is expected to keep the basic interest rate unchanged but with a hawkish tone. The last time Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke, he said policymakers would likely keep borrowing costs high for longer than previously expected, citing a lack of progress in inflation falls and the labor market continues to be strong. Despite the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts, gold prices are still up more than 13% this year and reached a record high earlier this month. The rise in precious metals prices over the past two months has been linked to central bank buying, strong demand in Asian markets, especially China, and rising geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The current gold price range is still quite narrow and has not changed much compared to what was published in the weekly issue published on Sunday. Technical conditions remain bullish in the short term with the closest support coming from the EMA21 level and the $2,322 technical point followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. A more negative case for gold prices can only be clearly seen when it sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, at which point the target level could reach the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382 Fibonacci level. % in short term. So, for open buy positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, gold holding above the EMA21 level will be a necessary condition to continue aiming for the short-term targets of 2,345 USD and more to the level of 2,365 USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bearish with the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,315 - 2,284USD Resistance: 2,345 - 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD stabilizes above EMA21 supportOANDA:XAUUSD market could see more volatility next week on news from the Federal Reserve and is expected to signal that it will not be ready to cut interest rates in June. Although expectations of loosening policy by the US Federal Reserve are fading, gold prices have also increased about 17% since February this year. Gold's strong performance is linked to central bank buying, and volatile geopolitical tensions. New inflation data reinforces the view that high interest rates are here to stay for now. The Fed's preferred gauge of core inflation, U.S. PCE data rose 0.3% in March and rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Figures from the beginning of this year were also adjusted slightly upward. Worrying inflation data for three straight months suggests progress towards the central bank's 2% target has stalled and suggests the first round of interest rate cuts will continue to be delayed. Investors are expecting one or two rate cuts this year starting in November, but concerns are growing that the Fed may not reduce borrowing costs by 2024. Fed policy decisions and US nonfarm data will be the macro focus next week Next Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its April jobs report. If U.S. nonfarm payroll growth slows significantly to below 200,000, that could trigger a sell off the US Dollar and cause an immediate positive reaction to gold prices. If nonfarm payroll growth is stronger than expected, especially if wage inflation data is hot, that could increase market expectations that the Fed will not act in September and put gold on the back foot. under pressure to reduce prices. Even if the data does not have a significant impact on expectations for a June rate cut, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the probability of the Fed keeping policy rates unchanged in September to be 42.6%. Investors should also pay attention to other data including US ADP and the Fed's Monetary Policy Decision due on Wednesday, and Jobless Claims on Thursday. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: ADP nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS vacancies, Fed monetary policy decision Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NDP), ISM Services PMI, US April Unemployment Rate Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered after a period of sudden correction, taking support from the EMA21 level and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Note to readers in last week's weekly issue and currently gold is also active at The position is quite positive, above the EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,322USD. Maintaining activity above the EMA21 level opens up the possibility of gold continuing to recover with last week's target at $2,365 still not achieved. Currently, the gold price still has all the technical conditions for a possible increase in price with main support at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. However, gold will also face the possibility of further declines once it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside target level could then reach the upper edge of the price channel, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, if long, open long positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Gold has a technical outlook that favors the possibility of an increase in gold prices. The technical levels will be noted and listed as follows. Support: 2,322 – 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,345 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GDP and PCE will be two important data for GOLD price trendsThe US Dollar Index is entering accumulation and recovering after 2 days of decline, making gold priced in US Dollars less attractive thanks to direct correlation. The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as tensions in the Middle East ease and safe-haven demand weakens. The gold market has been less affected by the escalating conflict in the Middle East as developments have cooled down. What the market is interested in as well as the current trading question is whether this correction in gold prices will create a long-term downtrend, or simply a short-term decline. Directions and clues about the answer keep the market focused on the Fed and economic data. If inflation data continues to show stubborn, hot inflation could push the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. Originally, the interest rate cut time had been pushed back by the market to September, previously expected to be June. This is not beneficial for gold, an asset that does not yield any yield. First-quarter GDP and core inflation will provide additional data on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on (today) Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released on Friday. US core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise at a solid 0.3%, with the annual index falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in the month Two. Gold prices could face a sharp sell-off if core inflation data comes in higher than expected. Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates starting at its September meeting. Further signs of sustained price pressure will allow the Fed to maintain its stance of keeping interest rates on hold. at current levels over the long term. Theoretically, this scenario bodes well for the US dollar and US bond yields, while reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to maintain activity above the EMA21 level, and despite the recovery from the 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels presented to readers in previous issues, the The recovery levels were quickly defeated and entered a state of accumulation. Temporarily, the market has not shown any signs of sudden changes to open a new trend structure, while technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with support from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236. % as key support levels. If gold holds above $2,322 it will be a positive and the target level is then aimed at $2,334, more so than $2,365. On the other hand, a further bearish cycle will be unleashed once gold sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, so protection levels for open long positions should be protected below the 0.236% Fibonacci level. %. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains supportive of upside with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,334 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2342 - 2340 ⚰️SL: 2346 ⬆️TP1: 2335 ⬆️TP2: 2330 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, GOLD trend conditionsUS GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 was lower than expected, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce borrowing costs. However, inflation has risen sharply over the same period, which will delay the Fed's interest rate cuts. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, below forecasts. 2.4% growth by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was adjusted from 3.4% to 3.9%. Other data showed that the initial value of the US core PCE price index in the first quarter after seasonal adjustment was 3.7%, the estimate was 3.4% and the previous value was 2 .0%. The geopolitical situation also supports gold prices. The Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation reported on April 25 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan to conduct ground operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. In addition, after a two-week lull, Houthi forces launched attacks on US cargo ships and naval vessels. -According to Zerohedg- For gold, this price gain comes after a nearly 3% drop this week as markets downgraded assessments of rising tensions in the Middle East. Fed officials last week including Chairman Jerome Powell agreed, saying: "Recent data shows no further progress in inflation this year." Currently, as tensions in the Middle East gradually ease, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak in the short term. Looking ahead, the market will focus on March's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, which will guide the next move of gold prices. If PCE inflation is higher than expected, it will signal pressure on gold prices and it is possible that gold will continue to sell off, while if PCE inflation continues to shrink, lower will be an important support for gold. with gold prices because it helps the case of the Fed cutting interest rates soon become more open. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the key support area that readers noticed throughout recent publications with key support from the EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels produced bullish corrections and currently the price action position is also more positive for gold prices with price activity above EMA21 and the 2,322 USD technical point. However, for gold to continue to rise further it needs to break the $2,334 technical level to operate above this level and then target around $2,365, which is also the target bullish recovery level. weekly attention in weekly issue publication. Gold can only become more negative if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside could then reach the upper channel edge and more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level, so open long positions should be protection behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level and if this level is broken it means losing ground to buy. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still tilted towards the possibility of price increases with the following technical levels being noticed again. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2349 - 2347 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2337 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD recovers from key support areaOANDA:XAUUSD stabilized after hitting a more than two-week low as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East subsided, while investors await key economic data to further clarify the timing of US interest rate cuts. America. Israel stepped up its attacks on the Gaza Strip, its worst shelling in weeks, but fears of a wider conflict eased after Iran said last week it had no plans to retaliate for the attack. apparent Israeli drone strike, financial markets showed signs of increased risk appetite and sold off safe-haven assets. Markets are also paying attention to signals from the United States, with US inflation data and a Federal Reserve statement suggesting that there may not be an interest rate cut in June. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest there is no need to cut interest rates immediately, reducing the appeal of zero-coupon gold. Markets now expect the Fed's first rate cut will most likely come in September. Markets will closely monitor US GDP data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday for further insight into the US economy and timing. In previous trading, the S&P Global PMI was weaker than expected, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. This month, the manufacturing PMI index fell from 51.9 to 49.9. On the other hand, both the services and composite numbers fell to 50.9 from 51.7 and 52.1. According to the US Department of Commerce, other data for new home sales increased the most in six months, as building permits remained at a narrow level despite an upward revision of -3.7%. from -4.3%. The data helps gold prices recover but in general PMI data is not a data that can be used to guide the market so it will only work in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold fell sharply and gained support from an important technical area for a medium-term uptrend sent to readers throughout the publication at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21, it had the most recovery. stable and currently trying to hold above the $2,322 level. $2,322 is also a key technical level and if gold holds above it will likely continue to recover towards another key technical level of $2,365. Currently, technically speaking, gold still has all positive conditions with a medium-term trend from EMA21 and a long-term trend from the price channel. Meanwhile, the negative (bearish) case could widen further if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is broken below and the target level then targets the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. . This means the protection levels for open long positions should be placed just behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Middle East has few new points, GOLD adjustsDuring the Asian session on Monday (April 22), spot gold had a gap and opened lower, falling to a low of $2,370/ounce as of press time. Gold is mainly under pressure because tensions around Israel and Iran appear to have cooled, which has eased risk aversion, thus putting pressure on gold prices. On April 19 local time, Israeli Army Radio said Israeli security officials confirmed that Israel had launched an attack on Iran. Iranian state television on April 19 confirmed that an air defense system specifically designed to intercept drones east of Isfahan, Iran, intercepted three small drones that day. According to local military officials in Isfahan, this interception did not cause any casualties or damage. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on January 19 that reports of Israeli attacks on targets in Iran had not yet been confirmed and that Iran had no immediate plans to retaliate against Israel. According to the report, the above mentioned senior Iranian officials also expressed doubts about whether Israel was responsible. Iran: “Foreign sources about the incident have not yet been confirmed. We have not suffered any external attacks and discussions on this issue are more about infiltration than attack.” According to Reuters, Israeli leaders and the military remained silent. Iranian media's reaction to the attack was also silent. There are no new points in the development of geopolitical conflicts, all attacks are just in the media "literally called gangsters". There are no new points and no risk of escalation. Gold will be under selling pressure because it is considered a safe haven asset during market periods with many risks and especially geopolitical risks. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. If US GDP data is stronger than expected, the US dollar could hold its ground and put pressure on gold. Surveys show that the initial quarterly real GDP rate in the United States in the first quarter is expected to increase 2.1%. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, there is a less than 20% chance that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in June. On Friday, the US will release data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The core U.S. PCE price index in March is expected to rise at an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with a 2.5% gain in February. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold dropped significantly this morning, it again received support from the technical level of $2,365. Note to readers in the previous issue and was limited by this level. . Temporarily, gold still has enough conditions to increase in price technically as the short-term uptrend remains stable with the price channel and support level at the technical point of 2,365 USD. Maintaining above 2,365 USD gives gold the ability to retest the 1% Fibonacci level at 2,382 USD. However, a break below $2,365 would open the door for a broader bearish correction with the target level then likely to be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Support: 2,336USD Resistance: 2,358 – 2,382 – 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2414 - 2412 ⚰️SL: 2418 ⬆️TP1: 2407 ⬆️TP2: 2402 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337 ⚰️SL: 2331 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2347
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Risks cool down, GOLD is sold off to a critical pointOANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from recent highs due to the impact of reduced geopolitical risks and a stronger US Dollar. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have maintained a hawkish stance on interest rates, which has weighed on gold prices. Sentiment has changed as expectations for a Fed rate cut were revised to a potentially longer than previously expected June date. Iran downplayed the retaliatory Israeli drone strike on April 19, which was previously seen as an escalation of the conflict. Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish comments recently. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a lack of progress in fighting inflation is the reason interest rates must stay high for longer. Chicago Fed President Goolsby also agreed with Powell. Goolsby said progress on disinflation had "stalled". Notably, Goolsby is one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investors now await the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report on Friday for further direction on the outlook for US interest rate cuts. In fact, in recent times, gold has been deeply affected by major and sudden events. The media war in the Middle East has caused gold to increase sharply followed by news that suddenly cooled the conflict. Sticking to a rigid trend is a mistake that takes a lot of time to correct. There are some people who have won by following the market risk and making purchases and then receiving certain profits. But when the risk suddenly disappears, not reacting in time or knowing but not accepting the change is a huge mistake that brings heavy losses. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has broken out of a short-term downtrend after breaking below the $2,365 level noted in the weekly edition and is now trading at a very important support area for the uptrend. medium term while maintaining price activity above EMA21. Meanwhile, if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level continues to be broken below gold will continue to be at risk of further declines with the target level then at the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.328% Fibonacci level. This means if open long positions are taken they need to be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. During the day, gold is expected to recover slightly but is not yet qualified for a strong price increase with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,325 – 2,305USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2282 - 2284 ⚰️SL: 2279 ⬆️TP1: 2289 ⬆️TP2: 2294
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD is at risk after information is revealed about FOMC, SNBOANDA:EURUSD NEWS AND ANALYSIS - ECB officials eye June meeting for first rate cut, SNB delivers a surprise cut - Dollar drop appears short-lived as EUR/USD heeds resistance ECB OFFICIALS EYE JUNE MEETING FOR FIRST RATE CUT, SNB DELIVERS A SURPRISE CUT Despite the EU and US having different growth prospects, the ECB remains cautious about cutting rates. They are eyeing up the June meeting as significant. Wage growth has been a focus, but it seems the ECB is running out of reasons to delay rate cuts. Today, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bps to normalize monetary policy. This decision was prompted by challenges in the external environment, the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, and inflation below two percent expected to continue next year and in 2026. DOLLAR DROP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS OANDA:EURUSD HEEDS RESISTANCE Yesterday's dovish Fed announcement led to a decline in expectations of a 25 basis point hike, causing the dollar to drop. As a result, EUR/USD saw gains and tested resistance levels at 1.0942 and 1.0960, which correspond to Fibonacci retracements from the recent decline. The 50 and 200-day simple moving averages and the support level at 1.0830 are important factors to consider.
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD stabilized and recovered modestly over the past few daysAfter enduring notable losses last week, EURUSD steadied and mounted a modest comeback over the past few days, rebounding off the psychological 1.0600 level and pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair continues to recover in the coming days, resistance is expected at 1.0695 and 1.0725 thereafter. On further strength, all eyes will be on 1.0820. Conversely, should sellers reassert themselves and take charge of the market, technical support becomes apparent at 1.0600. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; any failure to do so could exacerbate bearish momentum in the near term, paving the way for a deeper decline towards the 2023 lows near 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600After steep losses in recent days, EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600 level on Wednesday, pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair manages to build upon its recovery in the days ahead, resistance lies at 1.0695, followed by 1.0725. On further strength, the focus will be on 1.0820. On the other hand, if sellers return and regain control of the market, technical support emerges at 1.0600. Bulls must staunchly defend this technical floor; a failure to do so could reinforce bearish pressure in the near term, resulting in a deeper pullback toward the 2023 lows located near 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
Technical outlook for EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD jumped on Wednesday, with bulls seemingly determined to challenge trendline resistance at 1.0950 after the FOMC announcement. In the event of a retest, sellers will need to fend off the advance; otherwise, there will be minimal obstacles to a rally towards 1.0970, a key Fibonacci level. Alternatively, if upside pressure begins to fade and sellers spark a bearish reversal, support can be identified at 1.0890, followed by 1.0850, where an ascending trendline converges with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY is close to 151.958The Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its policy interest rate to 0.00-0.10% in March, bringing interest rates out of negative territory. Although the yen was expected to increase, the market witnessed a decline in the yen, causing the OANDA:USDJPY exchange rate to increase. Although the Bank of Japan gave limited guidance on further policy tightening, markets viewed the move as a moderate interest rate hike, so the yen's depreciation fueled sentiment. that the central bank could intervene to support the yen. In addition to great nonfarm payrolls data, hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials helped US bond yields reach their highest level in more than four months and also supported USD/JPY. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit 4.42% on Monday, its highest since November 27. Higher US bond yields and the USD push USD/JPY higher still. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY has not yet broken the confluence resistance level by the upper edge of the price channel (a) and the 1% Fibonacci level of 151,958 to qualify for a new bullish cycle. While USD/JPY still has a primary bias to the upside, sustained activity below 151.958 provides room for short-term downside corrections without changing the primary uptrend. In the long term, the main trend of USD/JPY is up with the main price channel (a) as the long-term trend and the short-term uptrend supported by EMA21. The main uptrend in USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels, and traders should also pay attention to the possibility of a slight correction occurring. Support: 150,767 – 150,102 Resistance: 151.958
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY edged lower on WednesdayUSDJPY edged lower on Wednesday, stepping off its multi-decade high established in the previous session when the pair hit 154.78. Should the downturn reversal gain momentum later this week, support can be spotted at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter. Below these levels, 150.80 may become a focal point. Conversely, if USDJPY resumes its rally, resistance looms at 154.78, followed by 156.00, the upper limit of a short-term ascending channel. Despite the pair’s bullish bias, caution is warranted due to overbought market conditions and the growing possibility of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY broke above the 152.00 resistance levelThe US dollar surged on Wednesday due to higher-than-expected US inflation numbers. This led to USDJPY reaching new highs for 2024 and its strongest level since 1990. The March Consumer Price Index report showed persistent inflation in the North American economy, reducing expectations for a June FOMC rate cut. Headline CPI increased by 3.5% YoY, surpassing forecasts and accelerating from February's 3.2%. The core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, also exceeded expectations at 3.8%, indicating a potential increase in price pressures. Wall Street reacted swiftly, pushing U.S. Treasury yields upwards across the board on bets that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain a restrictive position for an extended period. Against this backdrop, the U.S. 2-year yield jumped more than 20 basis points, coming within striking distance from recapturing the 5.0% psychological mark. Traders also adjusted their view on the FOMC’s trajectory, pushing back on the timing and magnitude of future reductions in borrowing costs. That said, futures contracts now price in less than 40 basis points of easing for the year, with the first potential cut likely occurring in September. The table below shows current meeting probabilities. Fed Chair Powell recently downplayed inflation concerns at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. However, recent high CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of policy outlook and lead to more hawkish rhetoric, which could benefit the U.S. dollar. While the dollar may consolidate in the short term, it's uncertain if it can continue to appreciate against the yen as Japanese authorities may intervene to support their currency. OANDA:USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY broke through resistance at 152.00, reaching its highest level since June 1990. Without intervention, speculators may attack the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 155.70. If prices fall below 152.00, support is expected at 150.90 and failure to defend this area could lead to a retracement towards the 50-day moving average at 150.00, with channel support near 149.25 being closely watched.
by Xayah_trading
2
USDJPY does not show a clear directionUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:USDJPY - U.S. dollar loses ground on Monday ahead of high-impact events later in the week - Core PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be the center of attention - This article examines the technical outlook for USD/JPY The dollar fell slightly on Monday, but losses were limited by higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders took profits after last week's strong performance, while others held back due to upcoming high-impact events like the release of core PCE data and a speech by Powell on Friday. OANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY showed no clear direction on Monday after last week's surge, with the pair hovering just under last year’s peak at 152.00. A breach of this barrier might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in support of the yen, potentially limiting the breakout's longevity. Nevertheless, absent FX intervention, a surge beyond 152.00 could set the stage for a push towards 154.40. Alternatively, if bears wrest control from bulls and initiate a reversal, support can be spotted at 150.90, followed by 149.75 subsequently. The pair might stabilize around these levels upon a retest, but if a breakdown occurs, a drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 148.90 could be in the cards.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is trading within a limited rangeOANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY traded within a confined range on Thursday, lingering just below overhead resistance at 152.00. This technical barrier warrants close attention, as a breakout might prompt intervention from the Japanese government to support the yen. Should such a scenario unfold, a rapid reversal below 150.90 could occur ahead a possible drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 149.75. In the event that USD/JPY takes out the 152.00 level and Tokyo refrains from intervening, opting instead to allow market forces to find a new equilibrium for the exchange rate, buyers might gain confidence to launch a bullish attack on 155.25, a key barrier created by the upper boundary of an ascending channel in place since December of last year.
by Xayah_trading
AUDNZD entered a period of consolidation as prices fell slightlyAUDNZD entered into a period of consolidation as prices eased in the form of a bull flag pattern. After yesterday’s close, a bullish continuation appears on the cards for the pair despite today’s intraday pullback from the daily high. A move below 1.0885 suggests a failure of the bullish continuation but as long as prices hold above this marker, the longer-term bullish bias and the prospect of a bullish continuation remains constructive. One thing to keep in mind is the risk of a shorter-term pullback as the RSI approaches overbought once more. Upside target appears at 1.1052 (June 2023 high) and 1.0885 to the downside.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 22 - April 26]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased mainly due to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Gold prices recorded a fifth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since January 2023. Despite strong gains in the dollar and bond yields, expectations of an interest rate cut in 2024 have faded. decline. Israel's response comes a week after Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel pushed gold prices to a record high of over $2,426 an ounce. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest there is no rush to cut interest rates in the short term. This view is echoed not only by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but also by John Williams of the New York Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed). According to Kitco, in addition to persistent inflation, it is important to emphasize that the continuously tightening labor market reinforces the view of a strong economy, supporting the "soft landing" scenario, indicating that the The expected first interest rate cut will be delayed. It is worth noting that the market focus has shifted slightly from Fed policy to geopolitical risks, influencing investor strategies and gold pricing. Israel reportedly struck back at Iran on Friday morning, hitting a military site with drones, but it was limited and did not appear to cause much damage. Gold prices rose nearly 1.6% after concerns about widespread conflict in the Middle East disrupted global markets following the above event. Fed officials agree that interest rate cuts are not urgent. The market currently predicts the probability of an interest rate cut in September is about 67%. High interest rates make holding non-yielding gold less attractive. Next week is a week of little economic data of note, as traders focus on March U.S. new home sales on Tuesday and March durable goods on Wednesday. On Thursday, there will be the release of the first quarter US GDP report, quarterly PCE data, weekly initial jobless claims and pending home sales data. The week's most notable data will appear on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with technical conditions supporting an upward price trend as reported to readers throughout recent publications. The short-term uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the medium-term trend is noticed by the EMA21. The weekly close above the 1% Fibonacci extension opens up the prospect of continued upside next week with a near-term target of $2,400 full price and beyond all-time highs. Currently, there are no notable resistance points to set expectations for a possible downward adjustment. If gold is sold off below 2,365 USD, it will have conditions to technically adjust downward to the target level. then at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension point. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price falls and adjusting to around 2320, and selling if the price increases to reach 2473. Looking ahead, gold remains tilted towards the bullish case and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURGBP increased at the beginning of the week but has reversedEURGBP rallied earlier in the week but reversed its course on Thursday after failing to clear trendline resistance at 0.8570, with prices dropping towards the 50-day simple moving average at 0.8550. The pair is likely to stabilize around current levels before mounting a comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a dip towards 0.8520 and potentially 0.8500 could be around the corner. Alternatively, if bulls manage to reassert dominance and push the exchange rate higher, resistance emerges at 0.8570 as mentioned before. Breaking through this technical obstacle could set the stage for a surge toward the 200-day simple moving average near the 0.8600 handle.
by Xayah_trading