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Xayahtrading

🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 01 - April 05]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,163 USD/oz to 2,236 USD/oz, closing at 2,233 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to positive US economic growth in Q4 2023, although it slowed compared to previous quarters. Inflation is also decreasing, leading investors to anticipate interest rate cuts by the FED from June onwards. The forecast for March 2024 non-agricultural employment (NFP) is 198,000 jobs, down from the previous period's 275,000. If this forecast is accurate, it will support the expectation of an interest rate cut by the FED, causing gold prices to rise. However, if NFP exceeds expectations, it could negatively impact gold prices. Additionally, the tone of the Fed Chairman's speech next week is uncertain. Gold prices are expected to rise in the long term due to the slowdown of the US economy and the potential recession risks. The inverted bond yield curve indicates that the FED will likely implement three interest rate cuts this year. Central banks buying gold will also support its long-term prices. However, there is a short-term risk of profit-taking by investors, particularly ETFs. 📌According to technical analysis, gold prices are still in an uptrend and may reach $2,300/oz. If economic data is negative, prices may face profit-taking pressure with support levels at $2,150-2,100-2,080/oz. Trading plan: sell at $2,300 and buy at $2,150.
TVC:GOLD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD solid gains, extending positive momentumOANDA:XAUUSD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Gold kicked off the first quarter of 2024 with solid gains, extending the positive momentum established in the latter part of 2023. During this upturn, XAU/USD soared to new all-time highs, decisively breaking past the $2,150 mark, and eventually reaching a peak of $2,235. While bullion’s technical profile continues to be bullish, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, caution is advised, with the 10-week RSI indicator signaling possible overbought conditions. When markets become overextended in a short period of time, corrective pullbacks often follow, even if they turn out to be temporary or relatively minor. In the event of a bearish shift, support can be identified at $2,145, followed by $2,070, as displayed in the weekly chart attached. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average near $1,985. Further down, attention will turn to channel support at $1,920, then to $1,810. On the other hand, if the bulls maintain control of the steering wheel and look to push prices higher in the coming days and weeks, a successful breakout could add further bullish pressure, paving the way for a move towards resistance. channel at $2,255.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD skyrocketed, the world reached a new peakThe world gold spot price is around 2,233 USD/ounce, a spike of 42 USD/ounce compared to the transaction at the same time yesterday morning. Closing last night's session, the world gold spot price in the US market stood at 2,233 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of more than 38 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of 1.74% compared to the previous session's close. Yesterday, the global financial market received more positive economic information in the US, the USD increased well but the price of gold - a capital security asset still increased too strongly to an unprecedented high. Specifically, the US announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.4% over the same period, higher than the previous forecast of 3.2%. First-time applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week were at 210,000 applications, lower than the 212,000 applications forecast previously and last week. PCE price is an index measuring the price change of consumer goods and services exchanged in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing by 1.8% over the same period, much lower than the level achieved in the previous quarter. 2.6%. Thus, closing data on US gross domestic product increased compared to the same period last year, initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, showing that the US economy is recovering positively. The decrease in PCE prices shows that the price of personal consumption goods has decreased, which will contribute to reducing inflation in the US. According to market rules, the USD enjoyed a very good increase in the session last night - early this morning. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased quite well by 0.28% to 104,217 points. Normally, positive economic information and the USD will cause gold prices to drop sharply. However, investors believe that when factors related to inflation decline deeply, such as PCE, it will promote the process of reducing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) soon. Tonight, the US will announce the PCE price index for February. Current forecasts are that all indicators of PCE in February are higher than last month. In particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech. Investors will look for more clues about when to cut interest rates, as well as the health of the US economy from Mr. Jerome Powell. Currently, 71% of market forecasts are that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a series of high interest rate days in June this year. Experts say that if the PCE price index falls, it could be gold. prices will increase sharply. Because it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates soon to support the economy. If PCE increases, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates after June as forecast.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDCHF in 2023 with a rather erratic downtrendIn Q1, two central banks that have previously used negative interest rates made surprising decisions. The Bank of Japan exited negative rates, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut their benchmark interest rate. The SNB may continue to ease further due to low inflation forecasts and weak growth. In contrast, the Fed wants more confidence in consistent inflation towards the 2% target before taking action. CONTRASTING FUNDAMENTALS PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR OANDA:USDCHF IN Q2 The SNB's rate cut may prompt other central banks to do the same. While the Swiss Franc may face currency depreciation, Switzerland's low inflation justifies the decision to cut rates. The strong franc makes Swiss exports less competitive than goods from countries with a weaker exchange rate. Switzerland can handle any imported inflation resulting from the rate cut due to low inflation levels, but it is unlikely to be significant given the small 25 basis point cut. CENTRAL BANK POLICY COULD EXTEND BULLISH OANDA:USDCHF SETUPS IN Q2 Market expectations foresee a strong chance (78%) of another 25-bps rate cut from the SNB in June and if the likelihood of that second cut gains momentum, perhaps on softer inflation or weaker GDP, the franc may depreciate further as markets price in such an outcome. The Fed maintained their projection of three rate cuts for 2024. The Fed's dot plot, based on the median value of 19 estimates, suggests hesitation in easing financial conditions due to strong US data. If the data remains strong, the dollar may be supported in Q2. THE TRADE: LONG OANDA:USDCHF UPON IMPROVED ENTRY POINT USD/CHF spent most of 2023 trending lower in a rather choppy fashion, but at the turn of the new year fortunes reversed. The pair traded higher and eventually broke above trendline resistance on the back of the surprise cut by the SNB. The guidance to this trade suggests looking to enter the developing uptrend at a better level due to the sharp ascent at the end of Q1. Another sign to wait for a better entry level appears via the rejection of higher prices at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. A move back down to 0.8829 would reveal a retest of trendline support (prior resistance), whereafter, a bullish continuation may provide a higher probability trade. A level to consider includes 0.9085 which serves as a tripwire for continued bullish price action. Thereafter, upside targets comprise of 0.9245 and 0.9473. A retest of the late 2023 low would invalidate the bullish setup.
Long
by Xayah_trading
GOLD there is a possibility of a downward adjustment this weekOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Dollar down, gold up - Gold retests prior 2024 all-time high DOLLAR DOWN, GOLD UP Gold is influenced by a slightly weaker dollar at the start of the shortened trading week. Last week, gold prices showed an unusual evening star pattern, which can indicate a bearish trend reversal. The dollar is possibly stabilizing after a volatile end to the week. The main event risk this week is the release of inflation data on Friday. Limited catalysts are expected until then. Friday is a bank holiday in the UK and US, which could lead to a volatile USD movement if there is unexpected data amid lower liquidity. OANDA:XAUUSD RETESTS PRIOR 2024 ALL-TIME HIGH Gold prices attempted to close above $2195, the all-time high printed earlier this year before the latest milestone around $2222. This appears as a test for bullish momentum with a failure to close above suggesting that bullish momentum may require another catalyst to advance the bullish move. $2146 appears as the relevant level of support if bears are to regain control this week. To reiterate, Friday may cause elevated volatility should we see a surprise in the data – due to lower liquidity. Pay attention to the Breakout zone 2166 - 2180 Resistance: 2180 - 2186 - 2195 Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2150 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD hanging high, not far from the historical peak set recentlyThe world gold price is trading at 2,190 USD/ounce, up 12 USD/ounce from yesterday. Investors are anticipating US inflation data, which could provide insights into the US Federal Reserve's policy pivot. Despite the USD rebounding, precious metals remain near their recent historical peak. Investors are waiting for US economic data to be released later this week to more clearly determine when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its interest rate reduction cycle. Currently, most experts are optimistic about gold in the near future, saying that this precious metal is strongly supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this year even though inflation is still "persistent". , strong demand from central banks and fears of geopolitical tensions. Gold reached a record high last week after the Fed suggested three interest rate cuts in 2024. However, commodity analysts are doubtful that gold can continue to rise due to its significant increase in March.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD gains are limited amid a cautious marketGold prices rose slightly on Monday amid cautious market sentiment ahead of important events, such as the FOMC announcement. XAU/USD increased by around 0.2% in early afternoon trading in New York, finding support near $2,150. The Federal Reserve will hold its March meeting and may adjust its forward guidance and economic outlook due to recent inflation concerns. The recent CPI and PPI reports show a worrying trend: disinflation progress is slowing down and may even reverse. As a result, the Fed might take a more cautious approach by delaying the shift to looser policies and reducing the scale of future easing measures. This could result in two rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024 instead of the previously projected three cuts. FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES If policymakers signal a less dovish roadmap and delay the easing cycle, it could cause US Treasury yields and the dollar to rise. This may pose a threat to the current rally in precious metals, especially gold, and lead to a significant downward correction. However, if the central bank maintains its previous outlook and shows confidence in reducing borrowing costs, gold may have a better chance of moving higher. Recent data on inflation risks suggests that a dovish outcome from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is less probable. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices stabilized on Monday after a weak performance last week. The prices rebounded from support at around $2,150 and could potentially face resistance at the trendline of $2,175. If this resistance is overcome, attention will shift to the all-time high of $2,195. If bears regain control of the market, the first technical floor to watch for a pullback is $2,150. Bulls need to defend this zone to prevent further selling pressure. Failure to do so could lead to a drop towards $2,085, with potential losses shifting focus to $2,065. Resistance: 2162 - 2171 - 2177 Support: 2145 - 2135 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
6
GOLD prices stabilize after a strong sell-offOANDA:XAUUSD AND ANALYSIS - Gold’s backdrop remains positive and may lead to further gains. - Retail trader positioning is 50/50. Gold reached a new record high last week but ended the week relatively unchanged after a sharp sell-off. The Federal Reserve hinted at a potential rate cut of 75 basis points this year, which initially boosted gold. However, the US dollar strengthened towards the end of the week, putting pressure on gold prices. While the USD strengthened, US bond yields declined in expectation of a lower Fed Fund rate. The rate-sensitive US 2 year decreased by about 14 basis points, while the benchmark US 10 year dropped by 11 basis points last week. Although a temporarily stronger US dollar may limit gold's upward potential, lower US bond yields could potentially drive prices higher and retest last Thursday's all-time high. After completing a bullish pennant pattern last week, the daily gold chart is now looking to build another bullish set-up. The current sideways price action may turn into a bullish flag pattern, and this would likely see gold pushback above $2,200/oz. and test the ATH at just under $2,225/oz. Reasonable first-line support seen a fraction under $2,150/oz. Note the breakout zone 2166 - 2181 Resistance: 2181 - 2188 - 2195 Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2150 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 25 - March 29]This week, international gold prices increased quite sharply from 2,145 USD/oz to 2,211 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,157 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,165 USD/oz. The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of the week was because in the recent meeting, the FED said there would be 3 interest rate cuts this year, regardless of inflation remaining above the target level of 2%. Although from now until the next June meeting, the US will have a lot of economic data, especially inflation and employment data... published, but many experts still affirm that the FED will find it difficult to delay monetary easing. bad. Because if the FED delays cutting interest rates further, it will cause the US economy to lose growth momentum and even fall into recession. Although the economic recession depends on a number of other factors, that statistical probability also partly shows that there is a potential risk to the US economy, and the FED may have also anticipated the risk. Therefore, we will be determined to cut interest rates in the near future. And this will also be the reason for the gold price to increase even higher, although it is difficult for the gold price to avoid the pressure of adjustment and consolidation in the short term due to profit taking by investors, ETFs, especially SPDR. big profitable states. Next week, the US will release a lot of economic data, notably the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) - the FED's favorite inflation index. Even if PCE increases more than expected, it is not a cause for concern, because the FED has confirmed that it will still cut interest rates even if the target inflation is above 2%. Therefore, PCE may not have much impact on gold prices next week, unless this index increases dramatically. Technically, the next support level for gold prices next week is at 2,145 USD/oz. If it stays above this level, gold prices will likely increase again next week. However, if next week's gold price is pushed below this level, it may adjust to below 2,100 USD/oz, followed by the important support area of ​​2,041-2,067 USD/oz. The trading plan (reference) for next week will consider buying around 2077 and selling around the 2200 round resistance mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD record increase after FED's decisionFORECAST - OANDA:XAUUSD - The Fed held borrowing costs unchanged and continued to indicate it would deliver three rate cuts this year - The dovish policy outlook weighed on the U.S. dollar and yields, boosting gold prices For context, the FOMC kept borrowing costs at their current levels at its March gathering, reaffirming its intention to implement 75 basis points of easing in 2024. Wall Street, fearing a hawkish outcome in the face of growing inflation risks, breathed a sigh of relief at the institution’s restrained response. While there were some hawkish elements in the Fed’s guidance, such as the upward revision to the long-run equilibrium rate, traders chose to focus on the near-term future and the fact that the easing cycle is inching closer and looming on the horizon. With all that said, the main takeaway from the FOMC meeting was this: nothing has really changed for the central bank; plans to cut rates this year remain on track and the process to slow the pace of quantitative tightening is rapidly approaching, with Powell saying tapering could start “fairly soon”. Taking into account today’s developments, bond yields will struggle to move much higher in the near term, especially if incoming economic data starts cooperating with policymakers. This could prevent the U.S. dollar from extending its rebound in the coming days and weeks. Meanwhile, risk assets and precious metals such as gold and silver could be better positioned to maintain upward momentum heading into the second quarter. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold surged on Wednesday, breaking past its previous record and notching a new all-time high above $2,220. With bulls seemingly in control of the market, a potential move towards trendline resistance at $2,225 is conceivable. On further strength, a rally above $2,250 cannot be ruled out. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and pullback, support looms at $2,195, the swing high from early March. Below this level, attention will turn to $2,150, followed by $2,090. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so will expose the 50-day simple moving average at $2,065. Resistance price ranges to note: 2225 - 2201 - 2189 - 2180 - 2175
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD goes down when the USD reverses to increase in priceGold price today, March 22, suddenly went down in the context of the USD reversing its price and US stocks rising sharply. After setting a record level of 2,211 USD/ounce in last night's trading session, today's world gold price plummeted 30 USD to 2,181 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on March 22. Gold prices weakened today in the context of the Swiss National Bank suddenly reducing interest rates. Meanwhile. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. As a result, investors focus on holding USD, helping this currency increase in price, which is detrimental to the gold market. Another development is that after the US announced it was ready to reduce interest rates three times in 2024, the US stock market continued to increase sharply. Many people have moved their equity capital, causing very little money to flow into precious metals. Today's world gold price drops by dozens of USD/ounce, which is inevitable. After the Fed meeting, gold prices are expected to reach the resistance level at $2,222/ounce. If this level is surpassed, it is likely that prices will reach between $2,228 - $2,234/ounce. In the long term, the Fed plans to cut interest rates three times this year starting in June, which will lead to a decline in USD compared to other currencies. Resistance: 2188 - 2195 Support: 2172 - 2168 - 2152 - 2145
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continued to decline compared to the previous sessionWorld gold spot price is around 2,165 USD/ounce, down more than 16 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices on the international market continue to decline because the USD has not stopped its rise. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased sharply by 0.42% to 104,075 points at 6:05 a.m. this morning. The USD benefited from positive economic and employment information in the US in February, despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcing that it would reduce operating interest rates this year. The positive recovery of the US economy has helped investors escape capital from precious metals such as gold - an asset that ensures capital safety - to invest in profitable assets such as stocks and bonds. On March 21, the Dow Jones industrial index set a new peak, increasing nearly 0.7% to 39,781.37 points, the S&P 500 index increased 0.3% to 5,241.53 points, and the Nasdaq technology index Composite increased 0.2% to 16,401.84 points. Investors turned to investing in risky assets such as stocks, which shows that the market is somewhat reassured when the US economy remains strong despite interest rates remaining at a 20-year high and the Fed expected to cut reduce interest rates this year.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD remained motionless ahead of the Fed meetingThe Federal Reserve will announce its March monetary policy on Wednesday. Experts expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged, along with the quantitative tightening program. The focus will be on forward guidance, with the Fed likely stating that they won't lower borrowing costs until there is more confidence in inflation reaching 2 percent. The Fed may raise its GDP and core PCE deflator forecasts due to economic resilience and persistent price pressures. This could lead to a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two. The following table shows projections from the December FOMC meeting. If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction). Resistance: 2166 - 2175 - 2182 Support: 2146 - 2140 - 2137 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD Fed in spotlight – Bullish explosion or crash ahead?OANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK - Gold prices retreated this week but are still up more than 5% in March - The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will take center stage in the coming week Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell 1.05% this week to $2,155 due to higher U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. However, gold has maintained strong bullish momentum in March, with a gain of around 5.5% and recent all-time highs. Earlier this month, gold prices surged as investors anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rally further intensified after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers were close to gaining confidence in the inflation outlook. However, recent consumer price data suggests that progress on disinflation may be stalling or reversing, causing a shift in the market sentiment for gold. With inflation risks emerging and reflected in recent CPI and PPI reports, the central bank may adopt a more cautious stance, indicating the need for patience in removing policy measures. This could result in fewer rate cuts than initially expected. The Federal Reserve's plans will be clarified next week when they announce their March decision. While policy settings are anticipated to remain unchanged, there could be revised guidance and forecasts based on new macroeconomic information, as data-dependency is a key principle. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed hinted that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing this year and market pricing has converged to this estimate of late. If policymakers were to indicate an intention to deliver fewer cuts than what’s currently discounted, we could see bond yields and the U.S. dollar push higher. This should be bearish for gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices fell this week, but managed to hold above support at $2,150. Bulls must actively protect this technical zone to prevent an escalation of selling pressure; failure to do so may trigger a pullback towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the spotlight will be on $2,065. On the flip side, if buyers regain decisive control of the market and spark a bullish reversal from the metal’s current position, the first obstacle lies at the record peak established earlier this month at $2,195. Further upward movement will draw attention to trendline resistance near $2,205. Resistance: 2160 - 2165 - 2173 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125 - 2100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 18 - March 22]After increasing to 2,195 USD/oz last week, this week's gold price continuously adjusted from 2,188 USD/oz at one point to 2,150 USD/oz and closed at 2,156 USD/oz. Gold prices have increased sharply in recent times mainly due to purchases by central banks and investors buying gold in anticipation of the FED reducing interest rates next June. Therefore, the rising inflation data has reduced this expectation, causing them to sell gold to take profits to hedge against risks. Next week will be a big challenge for gold prices when the FED will meet to discuss monetary policy and make economic forecasts. Any rhetoric to push back interest rate cuts could create some selling pressure on gold prices next week. Although at next week's meeting, the FED may not continue to postpone the interest rate cut date beyond June, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid continued adjustment pressure due to the possibility of ETFs. will continue to sell gold, while investors also make similar moves to hedge against risks before the FED meeting. 📌Technically, on the D1 technical analysis chart, the price is starting to show signs of a correction, and this correction may find its way back to the support area of 2090-2100, around the 50 Fib mark of the Fib Retracement, also around moving average EMA34 D1. The trading plan for next week will consider selling around 2200, buying around 2090.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD had its first weekly decline in 4 weeksGold prices stabilized on Friday (March 15) but recorded their first weekly decline in four weeks, as investors lowered expectations for US interest rate cuts after data this week showed pressure. price increases. At the end of the trading session on March 15, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,159.99 USD/oz. This week, the gold contract lost 0.8%, recording the first weekly decline since mid-February 2024, after reaching a record high of 2,194.99 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts retreated 0.3% to 2,161.5 USD/oz. This week's data shows that CPI consumer prices in the US increased stronger than forecast in February and PPI producer prices also show that inflation is somewhat stable. Gold is already pricing in any positive boost it can get from expectations that interest rates will fall… if inflation starts to rise again, that means policymakers will have to maintain Tighter monetary policy for longer periods of time. Higher-than-expected inflation maintains pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high, thereby putting pressure on gold. Non-yielding precious metals are also used as an inflation hedge. The USD index saw its strongest weekly increase since mid-January 2024, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Lower Canadian CPI brings interest rate cut closerCANADIAN CPI, OANDA:USDCAD ANALYSIS - Canadian inflation slows more than expected in February – raising USD/CAD - Markets bring a potential BoC cut closer while delaying the onset of Fed cuts - USD/CAD’s bullish response tapered off but pair heads for channel resistance CANADIAN INFLATION SLOWS MORE THAN EXPECTED IN FEBRUARY – RAISING USD/CAD Canadian inflation, both core and headline measures, came in lower than last month's figures. CPI was well below the estimated 3.1% at 2.8%. The core measure reached lows not seen in over two years, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider loosening financial conditions. In comparison to countries with inflation rates of 8% or higher, Canada stands out as a standout performer, as shown in the graph below. Annual Percentage Change in Inflation (CPI) OANDA:USDCAD BULLISH RESPONSE TAPERED OFF BUT PAIR HEADS FOR CHANNEL RESISTANCE USD/CAD continued its bullish momentum after softer inflation data but lost some steam during the New York session. The current upward move was triggered by a bounce off channel support at 1.3420, breaking above the 200-day simple moving average and reaching 1.3500. 1.3500 has previously acted as both support and resistance since October 2022. The current trend aims to test channel resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the major 2020-2022 move (1.3651). However, today's significant upper wick suggests that bulls may need to regroup before pushing higher. Canada has been successful in keeping inflation within the targeted range of 1-3% set by the Bank. Based on implied probabilities from rate markets, the Bank of Canada may need to prepare for a rate cut in June. There is a 62% chance of a cut at that time. The Canadian dollar may face pressure due to consistently low inflation, which could lead to easing monetary policy. On the other hand, market estimates for when the Fed may cut interest rates have been pushed back from June to July. This delay in monetary easing supports the US dollar, as it is expected to have a higher interest rate compared to most G7 currencies for a little longer.
by Xayah_trading
Gold price coils furtherOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis and Chart - Gold trading on either side of $2,165/oz. but a break may be near. The latest US PPI data – wholesale inflation - came in above market expectations, and last month’s print, but the dollar and US rate cut forecasts, remain little changed. US Retail Sales in February picked up, turning positive, but again missed market forecasts. With the greenback barely moving, gold has found it difficult to make a move, one way or the other. This period of consolidation is starting to look like a new bullish pennant formation, although it will need another couple of candles to see if this plays out. If this pattern is formed, gold is likely to push further ahead and make a fresh record high. Support is seen at $2,148/oz. ahead of $2,128/oz. Retail trader data show 40.95% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.53% higher than yesterday and 2.21% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.91% higher than yesterday and 6.62% higher than last week. On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible. Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance: 2170 - 2175 - 2185 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD turning down after a series of "shocking" increasesFORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD – MARKET PSYCHOLOGY Retail trading activity shows a net short bias in gold, with the ratio between bearish and bullish positions currently at 1.47:1 as of late Tuesday afternoon. Overall, bullish bets on precious metals are 9.67% lower than yesterday and 12.80% lower than they were popular a week ago. Meanwhile, bearish bets are down 0.31% from the previous session and 13.15% higher than last week. Gold prices declined in the context of the latest report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.2% over the same period last year, higher than experts' forecast of an increase of 3.2%. first%. The core CPI in February increased by 3.8% compared to the expected increase of 3.7%. In the medium and long term, the Fed will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. However, gold prices have increased very strongly since the end of 2023 and in the first 2 months of 2024. The possibility of gold prices continuing to skyrocket is no longer highly appreciated. Recently, many forecasts say that gold will increase in the second half of the year but at a slow pace. Most likely, gold price will reach 2,200 USD/ounce. In the short term, gold may face selling pressure to take profits. Although optimistic about gold's prospects, investors should be sensitive to the market's current speculative position. Speculative traders can reverse their positions very quickly if the market begins to turn. Resistance: 2170 - 2181 - 2190 Support: 2145 - 2137 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD rally will continue amid aggressive US interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS AND CHART - US rates markets fully price in a 25 basis point in June. - The path of least resistance for gold remains higher for now. The latest Fed commentary has led to financial markets pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut at the June 12th FOMC meeting. Three more rate cuts are also expected in 2024, with a high likelihood of a fourth cut. It's time for the US central bank to take action. The US economic calendar has important releases next week, with the US inflation report on Tuesday being the most notable. The latest comments from the Federal Reserve indicate that they are satisfied with the current disinflationary trend. A significant increase in either of the year-on-year inflation figures would be needed to alter or postpone the Fed's plan for interest rate cuts. The daily gold price chart is moving higher into new territory. Despite being overbought according to the CCI indicator, the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently risen from the previous day's closing price, making it challenging for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief period of consolidation with solid support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD US inflation previewUS CPI PREVIEW – OANDA:XAUUSD , US DOLLAR, STOCKS - The February’s U.S. inflation report will steal the spotlight on Tuesday morning - Any deviation of the official data from market expectations could trigger volatility Tuesday marks an important day for investors of all stripes as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February’s consumer price index survey, a key report that is anticipated to provide fresh insights into recent inflation dynamics and guide the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy outlook. In terms of projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.4% last month, bolstered by higher energy costs. This result would have kept the annual rate unchanged at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core gauge is seen increasing 0.3% m-o-m, leading to a minor downshift in the year-over-year reading to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%. US INFLATION TREND Focusing on the market response, official figures that closely align with Wall Street’s consensus estimates wouldn’t generate much volatility or alter sentiment in a meaningful way, but any large deviation in the CPI data relative to what’s priced-in could trigger large price swings across assets. For this reason, traders should closely track the economic calendar tomorrow morning. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR KEY ASSETS > UPSIDE SURPRISE (HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED CPI) A hotter-than-expected CPI report would confirm that January’s upside surprise was not a one-off event, but an indication that inflation may be reaccelerating and will be harder to defeat. Such an outcome might compel the Fed to revise its PCE forecast upward and potentially reduce the number of rate cuts envisioned for the year at its March meeting. This scenario should spark a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, pushing bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher. In response, gold prices and stocks could come under strong selling pressure. > SUBDUED REPORT (LOWER-THAN-FORECAST CPI) Cooler-than-forecast CPI readings would bolster the idea that last month’s data was an anomaly and that progress on disinflation continues. This could give the Fed greater confidence that inflation is on a sustained path towards the 2.0% target, validating the market’s outlook for multiple rate cuts in 2024 and the start of the easing cycle in June. In these circumstances, we may witness further retracement in yields and the U.S. dollar in the days and weeks ahead. This could inject fresh bullish momentum into gold prices and risk assets. Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly. Breakout + Test: 2185 waiting for Entry Buy Breakout + Test: 2175 waiting for Entry Sell Resistance: 2200 - 2205 - 2225 Support: 2175 - 2163 - 2151 - 2146 - 2137
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 11 - March 15]This week, international gold prices have continuously increased sharply, from 2,079 USD/oz to 2,195 USD/oz and closing at 2,178 USD/oz. Gold prices rose sharply as the US economy added 275,000 jobs in February 2024, surpassing expectations. However, there were downward revisions to job numbers in January and December. The unemployment rate in the US also increased from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February. Concerns arise about potential downward adjustments in future employment data releases. The US labor market seems to be starting to absorb the blow from the FED's continuous monetary tightening. This causes the market to increase expectations that the FED will start cutting interest rates next June. US inflation has decreased but slightly exceeded expectations. FED Chairman Powell is satisfied with the current data but wants more confirmation before cutting interest rates. The upcoming February CPI announcement will be closely watched. A higher than expected CPI may reduce rate cut expectations and lead to profit-taking by gold investors, while it could also increase gold prices further. While gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium and long term, they may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking before resuming their upward trend. 📌Technically, the gold price is in wave 5 of the Elliott wave model and could reach a target range of 2300 Fibo 361 to 2600 Fibo 461 based on Fib Extension milestones. It is difficult to predict the record high price without more information, so we need to wait for time to provide an answer. This week, the weekly fluctuation range is over 100, and the trading plan for next week includes selling near the 2300 resistance mark and buying if the price adjusts back to the 2100 resistance mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD still soaring despite positive employment figuresThe world gold spot price is around 2,179 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of nearly 19 USD/ounce compared to yesterday's trading session. The international financial market last night received more positive information about the February employment report in the US. Specifically, according to the US Department of Labor in February 2024, the non-agricultural sector created 275,000 new jobs, much higher than the previous prediction of 198,000 new jobs; higher than the adjusted figure of 229,000 new jobs in January. Only the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, remaining at 3.7% for the first time in 4 months. The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%. Average earnings per hour worked in February, a key measure of inflation, decreased slightly with wages rising 4.3%, lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%, an increase of only 0.1 % compared to January. Thus, the February employment report in the US was quite positive. Although the unemployment rate increased, the number of employed workers remained stable. Normally, positive employment data will help the USD strengthen and gold will decrease in price. However, this time is different, the conflict in the Red Sea has "heated up" again with the Houthi attack on the True Confidence ship, killing at least 3 crew members on March 6, despite The US naval coalition is there. This has caused the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal area to decrease sharply. The Houthi attack on commercial ships caused a crisis in the transportation of goods across the Red Sea and it will take several months, or even longer, to overcome. Manufacturing, trading and transportation businesses have to spend higher costs to meet international orders. This significantly affects the production and business activities of enterprises, as well as the growth of economies. Increased risks have caused investors to continue buying gold to preserve capital and seek profits.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading