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GOLD continue to rise, breaking all recordsChairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell gave his first speech in two days of testimony before the US Congress on March 6-7. He continued to affirm that the Fed will consider adjusting interest rates at any time. Interest rates will begin to decrease this year, but it is still unknown when. Because this agency is still concerned about the risks caused by inflation, it does not want to loosen policy too early. The USD saw a sell-off and US bond yields fell slightly after Mr. Powell's remarks, supporting a spike in gold prices. In a recent note, there is a 25% probability of gold reaching a record level of 2,300 USD/ounce in the second half of the year. The basic outlook they forecast for gold prices is still 2,150 USD/ounce, and also believes that gold will likely climb to 3,000 USD/ounce in the next 12-16 months. Gold acts as an "anti-recession hedge" in developed markets and is increasingly seeing positive impacts from the instability surrounding the US election next November. Very optimistic about the prospect of a breakthrough in gold prices. In the short term, gold prices may increase by several hundred USD. In the long term, in the next 1-2 years, the price could reach 2,700 - 2,800 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD's all-time high is still within touching distanceGold’s recent rally accelerated last Friday, driven higher by weak US economic data, and the rally back towards a new all-time high has continued this week with the precious metal posting a $2,141.8/oz. peak yesterday. This left gold just $3 short of printing a new ATH. The technical outlook for gold remains positive and suggests that the precious metal will continue to move higher. The drivers for the latest move higher in gold remain the same, the upcoming series of US interest rate cuts – three 25 basis point moves seen this year, starting at the June FOMC meeting – ongoing haven buying on geopolitical fears in Ukraine and the Middle East, and heavy central bank buying as bankers diversify away from the US dollar. Later today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify to the House Financial Services Committee (15:00 UK). Mr. Powell is not expected to lay out any timetable for interest rate cuts just yet, although any discussions about inflation, or the US labor market, will be keenly followed. The next FOMC meeting is on March 20th and this may be a more appropriate setting for official rate cut discussions. The daily gold chart remains positive with a prior level of resistance at $2,081/oz. now turning into support. Before that, the $2,114/oz level may act as a buffer after closing there on Monday and opening there on Tuesday. The CCI indicator at the bottom of the chart does show gold to be extremely overbought although this reading is starting to move lower. There may be a short period of consolidation ahead but overall the path of least resistance for gold is higher.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD breakout continues to increase depending on NFPGold prices have staged a notable rally over the past week, surpassing key technical levels to reach their highest point since December 2023. By late Friday, the precious metal had recorded gains A significant weekly increase of 2.33%, reaching nearly 2,088 USD. Bullion's bullish momentum can partly be attributed to a moderate drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a reaction triggered by two key economic reports that have investors weighing the impact of them to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Looking ahead, traders should pay attention to upcoming US February jobs data to better understand the market trajectory. A blockbuster report reflecting strong numbers for January would undermine hopes of the Fed moving to cut interest rates soon, potentially sending gold prices tumbling. On the other hand, if nonfarm payrolls come in lower than forecast and hint at growing economic headwinds, interest rate expectations could be revised to a more dovish direction. put pressure on yields. This scenario is ready to support precious metals.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD soaring, surpassing all-time peaksWorld gold price stood at 2,112 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 32 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. There was a time when the price of this precious metal reached 2,120 USD/ounce. Thus, the world gold price has set a new peak, this is the highest level of all time. The previous peak was set in early December 2023 at a price of 2,110 USD/ounce. Weaker-than-expected US economic data released last week pushed US real interest rates down and this is what triggered the rise in gold prices. Expect gold prices to break out as recent price action has created some very bullish technical patterns. Gold is forming consistent bullish patterns. The price spikes, consolidates for a period of time and then we see another price move higher. Gold sought to break even higher. From a technical standpoint, it looks like the expected target is for gold to go up by a few hundred dollars in the short term, but longer term, I'm looking at $2,700, $2,800, perhaps in a year or two next. Technically, gold price has very good potential.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 04 - March 08]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,024 USD/oz to 2,088 USD/oz and closed at 2,083 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to seasonal factors and the expectation that the FED will cut interest rates soon. Next week, two factors that could significantly affect gold prices are the testimony of FED Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the release of the US February nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. US NFP in February is forecasted to reach 190,000 jobs, a decrease from the previous period's 353,000 jobs. High interest rates have hindered business expansion and caused a reduction in operations. This may prompt the FED to consider cutting interest rates to support the labor market and the US economy, which could lead to higher gold prices. Conversely, if NFP exceeds expectations, the FED may delay interest rate cuts, potentially affecting gold prices negatively.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD jumped to nearly 2,100 USD/ozWorld gold price stood at 2,082 USD/ounce, up sharply to 38 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. This is the highest price of this precious metal in more than 2 months. The increase in gold prices comes from the market receiving information about gloomy US economic data. This contributes to strengthening investors' expectations about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) loosening monetary policy. Gold is on an upward trend because the market believes that the Fed will loosen monetary policy in the middle of this year, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold bars. In 3-4 months, prices will hit a record if we continue to see weak economic data and the market believes the Fed is ready to cut interest rates. Strong central bank buying is also supporting the market. Major economies in the world simultaneously announced less positive economic data. This also supports gold prices to increase in the coming sessions. However, experts warn that this week's gold speculative position is expected to only move sideways compared to before, so it is possible that gold will be sold off as early as next week as investors take profits. Therefore, investors should carefully observe the market to determine appropriate buying and selling points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fundamentals and technicals are unevenGold prices (XAU/USD) climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,040 threshold and reaching their highest level since early February at one point during the trading session, although gains seemed to be capped by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The precious metal’s positive performance was fueled, in part, by falling U.S. Treasury yields, which reacted to an in-line economic report. Specifically, January's core PCE deflator clocked in at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, just as projected. Investors, rattled by the recent CPI and PPI data, braced for further inflation pain, but were relieved when the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge landed precisely on its expected mark. This gave gold bulls an excuse to reengage long positions. Looking ahead, traders should not be taken aback if Thursday's rally proves to be short-lived. When markets come to terms with the fact that sluggish progress on disinflation and looser financial conditions could prompt the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle, bullion may face renewed downward pressure. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Focusing on gold’s outlook, technicals and fundamental analysis are currently at odds. That said, Thursday's bullish breakout, which saw XAU/USD push past trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at $2,035, is clearly a positive sign. Should this move be sustained, a rally towards $2,065 may be on the horizon. Above this area, all eyes will be on $2,090. On the contrary, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal below $2,035, sentiment toward the yellow metal could quickly sour. Under these circumstances, bears may gain confidence to mount an assault on the 100-day simple moving average, located around $2,010/$2,005. Further declines below this support zone could pave the way for a retreat towards $1,990.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD competing against US PCE dataThe U.S. dollar edged higher today, but displayed measured strength amid subdued U.S. Treasury yields. A sense of caution permeated markets as traders anxiously awaited the looming release of the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This economic report can greatly influence the central bank’s monetary policy outlook so it could bring volatility in the days ahead. Forecasts suggest that January's core CPI rose 0.4% m-o-m, resulting in a slight deceleration in the yearly print from 2.9% to 2.8%, a baby step in the right direction. In any case, the substantially higher-than-anticipated CPI and PPI readings for the same period underscore a key point: investors may be underestimating inflation risks, leaving them vulnerable to an upside surprise in tomorrow’s data. A hot PCE report indicating minimal progress on disinflation may prompt Wall Street to scale back bets on the number of rate cuts envisioned for 2024, while increasing the odds of the FOMC delaying its easing cycle to the second half of the year. A hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations should exert upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, boosting the U.S. dollar but weighing on gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rose on Wednesday but encountered resistance around the $2,035 mark, a key technical roadblock where a downtrend line converges with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to firmly protect this ceiling to thwart bullish momentum; any lapse could trigger an upward surge towards $2,065. Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of sellers and XAU/USD takes a turn to the downside, the first key floor to watch emerges at $2,005, near the 100-day simple moving average. Should selling pressure continue, traders may eye $1,990, followed by $1,995 as potential support levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased despite reduced volatility due to falling dollarWorld gold price stood at 2,032 USD/ounce, equivalent to the price at the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices increased slightly and then decreased when the market received mixed economic information. Specifically, negative information comes from the Conference Board survey results published on February 27 showing that the US consumer confidence index decreased in February to 106.7, down from 110. 90 revised down in January. Consumer optimism fell more than expected as economists forecast 114.8. In particular, the expectations index decreased to 79.8 from 81.5. “An expectation index below 80 typically signals an impending recession,” the report said. On the contrary, the positive data is that the February production index in the US increased from negative 15 points last month to negative 5 points this month and higher than the negative 9 points previously forecast. The US house price index in December decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%. When consumer confidence declines, it will affect the consumption of goods, as well as production. The sharp increase in the manufacturing index shows that the US economy is still recovering positively. Falling house prices will impact the consumer price index as well. This affects the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Economic data is mixed, so investors are still cautious in trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased by weak USD and tensions in the Middle EastWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 10.7 USD to 2,034.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,045.5 USD/ounce, up 14.5 USD compared to yesterday morning. After a series of stable days, world gold increased on Friday thanks to the weakening of the USD and increased safe-haven buying due to concerns related to developments in the Middle East. The US Dollar Index recorded its first weekly decline in nearly two months, making bullion priced in greenbacks cheaper for overseas buyers. Gold's recovery in the last trading session of this week was mainly due to the weakness of the greenback. Safe-haven buying also provided a boost to precious metals. However, gold's rise in recent times has been restrained by hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On Thursday this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that there will be "no rush" to make a decision to cut interest rates. This has reinforced investors' confidence that the US will delay loosening monetary policy until June. In the minutes of the first policy meeting of 2024, most Fed policymakers expressed concern about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon. Recent data showing higher-than-expected U.S. producer and consumer prices also dashed speculation of an early interest rate cut and that added pressure on bullion.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD likely to increase prices sharplyClosing the weekend trading session, world gold price stood at 2,035 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 22 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. For the whole week, gold prices increased by 1.4%. The bulk of gold's gains came on Friday as the precious metal was boosted by safe-haven demand and weakness in the greenback. In the context that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to maintain its interest rate stance, most opinions believe that the gold market is expected to still face risks. However, gold may benefit when the US Central Bank delays loosening monetary policy. The longer the central bank delays, the greater the risk of policy mistakes. Although gold has struggled since the beginning of the year, this expert is still impressed by the strength of this precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price struggles for directionWith all the excitement this week for the US stock market, and Nvidia in particular, gold has been left on the sidelines waiting for a macro boost. Next week's economic calendar has a host of potential movers with next Wednesday's US Q4 GDP and Thursday's core PCE release the two most likely candidates for a boost. price action. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has been discussing the need to curb excessive optimism regarding interest rate cuts. Initially, the markets predicted around 170 basis points of rate cuts for this year, starting in March. The Fed's plan for three cuts, beginning in the second half of the year, was initially seen as insufficient. However, their persistence and positive data releases have aligned market expectations. Currently, the market predicts a total of 83 basis points in cuts, with the first cut fully priced in for the July 31st meeting. This paring of cut expectations has weighed slightly on gold, capping further upside. Gold has lost around $100/oz. this year and the weekly chart shows a negative trend still in play. A break below $1,984/oz. is needed to keep this trend in place. A break above $2,044/oz. brings $2,070/oz. back into focus.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD confluent resistance stops the uptrendGold prices lost ground on Monday following a strong performance last Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields - a situation that generally diminishes the appeal of the non-interest-bearing asset relative to fixed-income securities. In this context, XAU/USD finished the session around $2,030, slightly below a confluence resistance zone near $2,035. Many investors appeared to adopt a wait-and-see approach on the precious metal at the start of the new week, refraining from making large directional bets for fear of being caught on the wrong side of the trade. This cautious sentiment was likely attributed to an important event on the U.S. economic calendar on Thursday: the release of the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Forecasts suggest January's core PCE increased 0.4% month-over-month, resulting in a slight deceleration of the annual reading from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, traders should brace for the possibility of an upside surprise in the data, echoing the trends observed in the CPI and PPI surveys disclosed earlier this month. This could inject volatility into financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD rising, confluent resistance is about to appearGold rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), holding above the $2,025 mark, supported by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar. The same risk aversion on Wall Street is likely to support the metal's rally. Considering the recent gains, XAU/USD is up over 2% from last week's low near $1,985 after higher-than-expected US inflation figures. Despite the positive performance, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may limit gold price increases in the near term, so caution is warranted. At the beginning of 2024, the prospects for gold bullion look brighter with the assumption that the Fed will take aggressive easing steps this year. However, overly dovish expectations have subsided due to strong US labor market data and stagnant deflation progress. Traders may continue to reduce dovish speculation on the FOMC if incoming information continues to reflect economic strength and strong price pressures. This is because these two factors could encourage policymakers to delay the start of the easing cycle and reduce the magnitude of further rate cuts. There are no major events on the US economic calendar in the coming days, but next week January PCE figures will be released. This report is poised to explain the latest inflation dynamics and provide insight into the Fed's next steps, so traders should keep an eye on it.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD is waiting for salary data and hearingsWorld gold prices are waiting for salary data and the hearing of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in early March. At 8:40 a.m. this morning, February 22, Vietnam time, the world gold price stood at 2,027 USD/ounce, a slight increase of 2 USD/ounce compared to the same time last morning. In the short term, world gold prices may move sideways. World gold prices are waiting for salary data and the hearing of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in early March. Fed officials noted that inflationary pressures eased and economic activity remained strong. According to the minutes, the committee wants more evidence to show that inflation continues to fall to the target level of 2% before making a decision to loosen monetary policy. It is forecasted that gold will likely continue to move sideways in the short term and the information the market is waiting for will be the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report published next week, followed by the payroll and regulatory session. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony in Congress in early March. Tonight, the US continues to release the purchasing management index for the manufacturing, services, and mixed sectors and the first unemployment benefit applications of the week. This will be the data for the Fed to assess the health of the economy. These will be data that impact gold prices in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD the upward trend in the price of the dollar remains stableMarket participants are looking forward to the release of core PCE data next week, which is expected to cause volatility in the FX market. Consensus estimates forecast a 0.4% rise in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.7%. Traders should prepare for a potential surprise similar to last week's CPI and PPI reports. Stiff price pressures in the economy, along with solid job creation and strong wage growth, could force the Fed to delay the start of its policy easing cycle until the second half of the year, resulting in little adjustment once the process is underway. A scenario like this could push interest rate expectations in a more hawkish direction compared to their current status. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF GOLD PRICES Gold edged up on Thursday but encountered resistance around $2,030, a key resistance zone where a falling trendline aligns with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers must defend this area strongly to prevent the bulls from reasserting their dominance; failure to do so could result in an increase towards $2,065. On the other hand, if sentiment turns in favor of sellers and the price starts to pull back, support can be identified at $2,005, positioned near the 100-day simple moving average. Further downside pressure may put $1,990 in focus, followed by $1,995.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD nudges higher in early tradeUS equity and bond markets are closed for the day – US Presidents’ Day holiday – and this will weigh on market activity across a range of asset classes. Activity over the rest of the week should pick up with FOMC minutes, the release of the February PMIs, and chip-giant Nvidia’s earnings all worthy of attention. In addition, a handful of Fed speakers will give their latest thoughts on the economy, and maybe a steer on the future path of US interest rates. The precious metal is continuing last week’s move despite hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data. Market rate-cut expectations continue to be pared back with the first cut now seen at the June meeting with a total of 90 basis points of cuts priced in for this year. In late December, the market forecast the first cut at the March meeting and expected a total of 175 basis points of cuts. We noted last week that gold was heavily oversold using the CCI indicator – see the story at the top of this article – and this weakness is currently being reversed. A move higher will find initial resistance from the 20-dsma at $2,023/oz. and ta prior level of horizontal resistance, and the 50-dsma around $2,033/oz. Initial support at $2,000/oz. ahead of $1,987/oz.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovering from US inflation concernsPrecious metals edged higher, partly due to the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) being technically oversold. The CCI indicator, comparable to the RSI, compares the difference between current and historical prices over a set timeframe and indicates whether the market is overbought, neutral or oversold. On Wednesday, the CCI showed gold was deep in oversold territory and back to levels last seen in late September, just before the market surge. If the market continues to shed this oversold level, gold could retest the $2009/oz level. ahead of the 20 and 50 day simple moving averages currently at $2,023/oz. and 2,031 USD/oz. corresponding.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is under pressure from Treasury bond yieldsGold prices fell on Monday, pressured by rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, following a series of solid US economic data, including January nonfarm payrolls and ISM Services PMI. Comments from Federal Reserve policymakers that an interest rate cut in March was unlikely also contributed to the decline in bullion prices. From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD slipped below the 50-day simple moving average following Monday's pullback, but managed to hold above horizontal support at $2,005. For precious metals sentiment to improve, this technical floor must hold; otherwise, sellers may become bolder to start attacking the $1,990 level. On further weakness, attention turns to $1,975. In the event of a bullish reversal in the coming days, which seems unlikely given the lack of positive catalysts and growing headwinds, the 50-day simple moving average is at $2,032 will be the first line of defense against further advances. Looking further out, the next important ceiling is $2,065, followed by $2,085, the late December high.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price falls, risks are not goneShort-term gold prices will still be strongly influenced by upcoming economic data and their impact on the USD and expectations of FED interest rate cuts. Next week, only service PMI data and the US weekly unemployment report will be released, so these data may not have much impact on gold prices next week. Technically, considering the H4 time frame ptkt chart, the gold price is currently moving sideways within the range of 2,000-2,065 USD/oz. Next week, if the 2065 resistance mark is broken, the gold price may look up. 2090 level, on the contrary, the 2000 support zone was broken, gold price regained the 1975 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD strong fluctuations after FOMCGold prices fluctuated strongly after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strongly opposed expectations of loosening monetary policy in March. Specifically, at the first monetary policy meeting For the first part of 2024, the US Central Bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged but the head of this central bank, Mr. Powell, rejected the idea of ​​cutting interest rates in the spring, which many market participants did not like. school expected. At the end of the session, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that interest rates would not change until the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has greater confidence that annual inflation is about 2 %. After the meeting, traders reduced bets on the start of US interest rate cuts in March and expected monetary policy easing in May to be possible. In another development, according to a recent report from the World Gold Council, global central banks' gold demand is strong in 2023 with a total purchase of 1,037 tons, of which China is still the main country. country with the greatest need. Experts from the World Gold Council also added that demand will continue to be maintained this year.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD "Push ups" dropped drasticallyThe world gold price was at 2,016 USD/ounce, down 10 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices turned lower after the latest published data showed US business activity remained strong. In particular, S&P Global survey results showed that US business activity recovered in January. A strong US economy coupled with resistance from US Central Bank officials caused some Investors to reconsider betting on an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The gold market is in a neutral environment as prices continue to stay above 2,000 USD/ounce and are unable to break out of the current range. Gold's recovery appears to be fading, raising the risk of further weakness if central banks continue to defy market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, investors are waiting for other economic indicators to get more clarity regarding when the Fed will make its first interest rate cut. This week, the US will release preliminary fourth-quarter GDP estimates on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure data on Friday.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD slight increaseThe gold market is in a neutral environment as the price continues to maintain above 2,000 USD/ounce and cannot break out of the current range. World gold price stood at 2,026 USD/ounce, a slight increase of 6 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. The gold market is in a neutral environment as the price continues to maintain above 2,000 USD/ounce and cannot break out of the current range. Recently, many forecasts suggest that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not lower interest rates at its meeting in March and will only lower interest rates from mid-2024 at the earliest. With quite hawkish statements from Fed officials , financial markets have tempered expectations that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates. This week, there are two economic reports that could change Fed interest rate expectations. On Thursday, the US Department of Commerce will release a preliminary report on gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023. Many experts predict that US GDP will increase by 1.7%, the lowest increase since the 0.6% decrease recorded in the second quarter of 2022. In addition to economic data, investors are also waiting for the decisions of major central banks such as the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. The decisions of these banks are expected to have an impact on the direction of both the greenback and gold. Although it is in a downward trend and moving sideways in the short term, experts believe that gold prices are benefiting from geopolitical instability in the world and conflicts between two economic powers, the US and China. Gold prices are forecast to increase rapidly in the second half of 2024.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading