Get started

Xayahtrading

GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year. About economic data US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected. Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%. The most important event this trading week On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends. The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025. So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue. Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50. Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693. On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term. During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,603 ​​– 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD stable, pay attention to data and upcoming eventsOn the Asian market on Tuesday (December 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,651 USD/ounce and there are almost no significant fluctuations. In the coming days, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will hold monetary policy meetings to decide on interest rates, while also hinting at what 2025 might hold. The Fed is expected to cut base interest rates by 25 basis points. The change has long been priced in, meaning the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or Dotplot chart, in which policymakers detail their expectations on inflation, growth, interest rates and employment. These will have a significant impact on the US Dollar. CME's "Fed Tracker" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for November, which is expected to trigger market volatility during this trading day. Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% monthly in November, after rising 0.4% in October. US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus pushing gold prices back down; On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate a recovery in gold prices. In addition, on the same day, the NAHB home price index in the US will be announced for December, which is expected to increase slightly to 47 from the previous value of 46. In terms of technical structure, not much has changed so readers can review the previous weekly publication linked below. In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects in 2 days, still has bullish conditions next weekOANDA:XAUUSD fell as the USD held steady at its highest level in more than 2 weeks. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates next week and gold prices still have conditions for a possible increase in price. OANDA:XAUUSD has broken multiple record highs this year, supported by Fed monetary policy, strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand. Traders currently assess a 96% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting. Focus will also be on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments as market participants analyze US monetary policy in 2025, especially given President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans , is very likely to add to inflation. Central banks often keep interest rates high to curb inflation, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold. Pay special attention to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision The Fed's monetary policy statement next week could be the last major impact for gold this year outside of unforeseen geopolitical surprises. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed will also release a revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as a Dotplot chart. In September, SEP showed that Fed officials' median forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2025 was 3.4%. If the 2025 interest rate forecast is revised downward, i.e. cutting interest rates by more than 100 basis points, it could have a direct negative impact on the Dollar and this would push gold prices higher. Markets will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. If Powell takes a cautious approach to further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar is likely to remain strong as it remains supported by President-elect Donald Trump. On the other hand, the US Dollar will come under selling pressure if Powell expresses growing concerns about the cooling labor market and its potential negative impact on the growth outlook. Data next week Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, and next Friday will release the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE). The economic calendar needs attention next week Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey, S&P flash PMI Tuesday: US retail sales Wednesday: Federal Reserve monetary policy decision Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims; US Q3 GDP, Philly Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales Friday: Personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold closed the week in a crucial position for upside as it still has bullish conditions. Specifically, the daily chart still shows that gold prices maintain activity above EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,644 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition. In addition, the Relative Strength Index decreased but stayed above 50, which does not show any negative signals. In the near term, if gold brings price activity back above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the conditions to recover more to the $2,676 level in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level and the original price point. 2,700 USD. Overall, gold still has a bullish outlook. However, a negative situation is likely to appear once gold breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level because it will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci level with a price point of 2,591USD. Therefore, open long positions will need to be protected when this situation occurs. In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2684 →Take Profit 1 2673 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2617 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 16 - Dec 20]At the beginning of this week, OANDA:XAUUSD quite strongly from 2,627 USD/oz to 2,726 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,645 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,648 USD/oz. The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of this week was because investors reacted to the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) returned to buying 5 tons of gold in November after many months of temporarily stopping buying. reserve gold. Even with the six-month hiatus, the PBoC bought 34 tons of gold this year and remains one of the top central banks buying gold in 2024. However, gold currently accounts for less than 6% of China's total foreign exchange reserves. This shows that the PBoC's room to continue buying gold reserves is still very large, especially when US-China tensions are increasingly escalating when President-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose very high tariffs on China. However, after rising to 2,726 USD/oz earlier this week, gold prices once again fell sharply because US inflation remained persistent, affecting expectations of the FED's monetary easing cycle. While the decision on FED monetary policy will receive more attention next Wednesday, the gold market will also receive important economic data that can impact the FED's monetary easing cycle, such as retail sales, revised third quarter GDP of the US... 📌Technically, the gold price still maintains an uptrend on the Daily technical chart, as the price is still above the EMA89 moving average. However, on the H4 chart, the movement of the moving average shows that the price is accumulating sideways, the resistance area to pay attention to is around the 2725 mark, while the important support zone is around the round resistance mark of 2600. In the coming week Many influential information can cause gold prices to fluctuate strongly beyond this sideways range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects, possibility remains optimistic as FOMC is comingOANDA:XAUUSD eased the correction significantly, which was partly due to the market taking profits after gold prices hit a five-week high and rushing to close positions ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, higher US bond interest rates also affect gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Thursday and was limited this trading day (Friday), as of press time, as traders booked profits following the release of US PPI data. PPI data exceeded expectations, suggesting the fight against inflation may be stalling. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate increased slightly by 1.5 basis points to 4.289%, which also put pressure on gold. The US producer price index (PPI) rose higher than expected in November due to soaring food costs. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the U.S. PPI rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in November. Previous market expectations were 2% .6% and 0.2%. Although Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations, it still rose at a seven-month high. However, gold is expected to hold onto gains this week as optimism grows that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Traders' attention is turning to the prospect that the Federal Reserve may pause policy easing as early as 2025. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit gold because gold itself does not create out yield. According to a report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday, gold's gains are expected to slow in 2025 as concerns about growth and inflation during Donald Trump's presidency have can affect the ability to increase the price of gold. Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date and are on track for their biggest annual gain since 1979. The rapid rise has been fueled by the Federal Reserve's easing policy, demand safe-haven demand and continued buying activity by global central banks. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has corrected but overall it still has all the conditions for a technical upside with price activity outside the channel and above the EMA21 level. Currently, gold's uptrend is temporarily limited by resistance at $2,693, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement price point, more than the 0.236% Fibonacci level noticed by previous readers. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also maintains activity above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook in the near future. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and outside the price channel, in the short term it is still likely to increase with notable points listed below. Support: 2,676 – 2,663 – 2,644USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2706 - 2704⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2710 →Take Profit 1 2699 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2694 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Interest rate expectations and geopolitics still drive GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD corrected after rising sharply as the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week increased significantly after the release of US CPI data. CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows traders see a 98.5% chance the Fed will cut another 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting, a significant increase from the 86% chance before CPI data is released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in November, both in line with market expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones previously expected this number to increase an average of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, the US core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in November and was up 0.3% month-over-month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones on average expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The market is now focusing on today's (Thursday) US Producer Price Index (PPI) data to shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut roadmap. Geopolitical news once again boosted OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected after approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and temporary upside was limited by this technical level. However, in terms of overall structure, the gold price has enough technical conditions to increase after breaking the falling price channel and bringing the main activity above the EMA21 line. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index also rose above 50, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook of gold prices. On the other hand, gold is likely to open a new bullish cycle when it breaks above the $2,730 level of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement then the target is the Volume profile POC point, more so the $2,761 level and all-time highs. era established earlier. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,742 – 2,761USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2669 - 2671⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2676 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2681
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD just passed $2,700, pay attention to CPI dataWednesday (December 11) on the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery increased again in the short term. Gold price has just surpassed the important milestone of 2,700 USD/ounce, reaching the highest level of the day as of the time this article was completed at 2,703.65 USD/ounce. Attention is turning to the US consumer price index (CPI) today (Wednesday) and the producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, both data will be important in influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. According to market surveys, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.3% in November, with year-on-year increases expected to be 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. %. Overall and core producer prices in the United States are expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in November, with year-over-year increases of 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. CPI data in line with expectations is unlikely to hinder interest rate cuts, but if the data shows inflation progress is slowing, the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut by the Fed may decrease. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows that the futures market expects an 86% chance that Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at their meeting on August 17-18. /12. In addition, gold prices also skyrocketed when the Chinese central bank resumed gold purchasing activities. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation plays an important role and still has many potential risks after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown. Gold is considered a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and tends to appreciate in low interest rate environments. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has initial conditions for a bullish outlook as it broke out of the falling price channel after a long period of sideways accumulation. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the future growth prospects as it will move towards the 75-100 area. With that, EMA21 which was the previous resistance has now become the most notable support. Gold prices are pushed above the original price level of 2,700 USD, keeping price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level will provide conditions for a new bull cycle with the target then around 2,730 USD where the Fibonacci retracement is located. 0.236%, more than the Volume Profile POC level. During the day, gold has all the technical conditions to increase in price and is temporarily limited by the original price of 2,700 USD. The notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,693 – 2,676 – 2,663USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased in the short term, approaching an important levelOn the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price is once again close to the edge of the price channel, a relatively "dangerous" position for technical bearish expectations. Currently the increase is about 7 USD during the day and gold is trading at 2,667 USD/oz as of the time this article was completed. OANDA:XAUUSD spiked on Monday, mainly due to the People's Bank of China resuming gold purchases after a six-month pause and significantly increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week , further promoting optimism. Heavy central bank buying has been one of the main drivers pushing gold prices to new highs this year, along with monetary policy easing and geopolitical tensions. CME Group's "FedWatch Tool" shows an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, up from just under 70% last week. Zero-coupon gold performs strongly in low interest rate environments and often attracts investors during times of political and economic uncertainty. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The current position of the technical price of gold in general has not broken the bearish outlook with the price channel still holding strong, however, gold also has initial conditions for the possibility of price increase. With EMA21 now the closest support having been broken above yesterday's trading session. Meanwhile, the RSI Relative Strength Index is also trying to move above the 50 level. The fact that the RSI can maintain operations above the 50 level is considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still quite neutral as it is not completely tilted towards a specific trend, with the price channel still being the current main trend. In case the price channel is broken on gold there is a slight upward trend with the target then around 2,693 USD the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, more than the original price of 2,700 USD. Along with the above analysis, notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,663 – 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2651 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2656
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
WTI recovered slightly, the outlook tilted to the downsideWTI TVC:USOIL increased slightly in the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), trading around 67.50 USD/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply last Friday, closing near their lowest level, mainly due to expected declines in global demand. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December increased following the release of US nonfarm data. According to CME Group's FedWatch, federal funds rate futures trading points to the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. point in December was nearly 90%, which will provide some support for oil prices. Currently, uncertainty about the geopolitical situation increased again at the weekend, making the medium-term recovery of oil prices still not optimistic. In the short term, crude oil traders need to continue to observe whether the pressure brought about by the geopolitical situation on the supply side will support oil prices to continue to recover. Essentially, this week will continue to focus on changes in inventory data and whether demand-side pressures ease. This week, the financial market in general and the crude oil and WTI crude oil trading market in particular will focus on US CPI data. On the daily chart, WTI TVC:USOIL although it recovered slightly in the opening Asian trading session today (December 9), it still has all the technical factors supporting bearish expectations. With the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel followed by the short-term price channel, it has both a long-term and short-term trend of decreasing prices. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is also under main pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, if WTI crude oil is sold below 65.28USD, there will be a prospect for a new downtrend to open, and the technical point of 68.34USD is the closest resistance currently. The relative strength index also maintained price activity below the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for WTI crude oil technically. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil on the daily chart leans bearish with notable points listed below. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 68.34 – 69.51USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
Ending a sideway week, pay attention to CPI dataDuring the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery rose significantly then fell back, with gold prices hitting an intraday high of $2,650.62/ounce on the Asian market. Gold prices have now dropped and are trading at 2,636 USD/ounce. Bloomberg reported that China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the first time in seven months and that the rapid collapse of the Syrian government further undermined stability in the Middle East. These two factors boosted gold prices on Monday but of course it only had a very short-term impact. The People's Bank of China released data on December 7 showing that China's gold reserves at the end of November 2024 were 72.96 million ounces and at the end of October were 72.8 million ounces. As of April this year, China's central bank had increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, helping support rising gold prices. However, the Chinese central bank's purchases (about 5 tons) are relatively small compared to monthly purchases since the beginning of this year. Traders watched developments in Syria over the weekend after President Bashar al-Assad fled as rebels took control of the capital Damascus. The United States struck dozens of Islamic State targets in central Syria on Sunday, as President Joe Biden warned that Assad's fall could lead to a resurgence of Islamic extremism. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had a week of stable price fluctuations with mostly sideways accumulation, in general on the daily chart it still moves with the main trend leaning towards the possibility of price decline. With the main trend being noticed by price channel and pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal resistance of 2,644USD in the short term. On the other hand, the relative strength index (RSI) is moving sideways below the 50 level, which can be considered a negative signal for gold technically. In the near term, if gold takes its price action below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, it could fall a bit further to $2,606 – $2,600 in the short term. Additionally, a new bearish cycle is likely to be opened once the $2,600 raw price level is broken below, confirmed by price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level followed by a target of around $2,538. As long as gold remains within the price channel, below the EMA21 and below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, it remains bearish on the daily chart, and the highlights are listed below. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 09 - Dec 13]Last week, international OANDA:XAUUSD almost went sideways in a range from 2,613 - 2,657 USD/oz. The US economy created 227,000 jobs in November, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts. At the same time, wages increased faster than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased again to 4.2%. However, these data show that the US labor market has been tending to recover, creating momentum for the FED to consider delaying interest rate cuts in the context of higher inflation, especially is when Mr. Trump is about to take office as President of the United States. Thus, there may not be much room for gold prices to increase because the FED cuts interest rates. Therefore, gold prices will need additional catalysts from geopolitical factors, central banks increasing gold purchases, etc. Short-term gold prices in general and next week's gold prices in particular will still be in a state of tension between concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and Mr. Trump's strong tariff measures, causing US Treasury bond yields to increase. , creating strength for the USD and limiting the rise in gold prices. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, we can see that the moving average ema89 is moving sideways, the gold price continues to accumulate sideways in a narrow range. Accordingly, the resistance level to pay attention to is around the 2720 mark, the support level to pay attention to is around the 2535 mark. Gold prices will create a clear trend when breaking through these two resistance levels. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,600 – 2,606USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,644USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2534 - 2536⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2530
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increases and decreases in opposite directionsThe world gold price listed on Kitco is at 2,633 USD/ounce, up 3 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. Gold futures last traded at 2,654.6 USD/ounce, down 0.5 USD compared to yesterday morning. Gold prices fluctuated slightly on Friday (December 6), marking the second consecutive week of decline. The precious metal has lost about 0.5% of its value this week, after hitting its lowest level since November 26 in early trading. During the day, gold prices barely reacted to the jobs data expected last week. The latest report shows that although job growth remains fairly stable, signs of weakness have begun to appear in the US labor market. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 new jobs were created last month, far exceeding experts' expectations. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, higher than 4.1% last month. Economists predict this ratio will remain unchanged. Although job growth remains strong, economists say the latest data will not stop the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting. However, some analysts note that the Fed's easing cycle could run into trouble if job growth extends into 2025. Gold prices may test the support level of 2,550 USD/ounce and the resistance level of 2,700 USD/ounce in December 2024. The trend in the next few weeks is that gold prices may decrease due to profit-taking activities. Regarding the medium-term trend, the support level of gold prices remains firm, but it is unlikely that there will be a strong breakthrough in the upward direction in the near future. Gold prices benefit from lower yields, continued rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding future policy implementation and global impact under the Trump administration.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD dropped and recovered quickly, new news from Korea, NFPOn the Asian market on Friday (December 6), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold prices have increased sharply from an intraday low of nearly 2,613 USD/ounce and are currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce, close to the technical level of 2,644 USD. There was news that South Korea might impose martial law for a second time, which quickly increased market risk aversion and stimulated a sharp increase in gold prices. According to the latest report from Yonhap News Agency on Friday, South Korea's opposition parties may seek to hold an impeachment vote on President Yun Xiyue at 5 p.m. local time on Saturday. South Korean media JTBC reported on Friday that the Military Human Rights Center held an emergency press conference at its office in Mapo district, Seoul in the morning, following the instructions of superiors, commanders The squadron commander's superiors could convene an emergency press conference before the 8th. The Military Human Rights Center emphasized that this was Yoon Seok-yue's Sign that martial law would be reintroduced. South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue suddenly declared martial law on the evening of December 3, with the reason of eliminating pro-North Korean forces and protecting constitutional order. The South Korean National Assembly voted late at night to pass a resolution to "remove martial law", and Yoon Seok-yue finally announced that he would "remove martial law". However, there are rumors that senior South Korean military officials have been asked to be on standby until December 8. This is something the market is eyeing as a sign that Yin Xiyue will declare martial law again. In a headline on Friday, Yonhap news agency quoted the South Korean opposition party as saying lawmakers were on standby after receiving multiple reports of martial law being declared again. Gold is considered a leading haven asset when the market receives risky impacts from geopolitical developments (especially in places closely related to the US). On this trading day, investors will receive the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. US nonfarm payrolls jobs are expected to increase by 195,000 in November. Gold could rebound stronger on more disappointing jobs data, and come under some pressure ahead of the tabular data Non-farm wages are optimistic. Today (Friday), the United States will release the November nonfarm payrolls report. Surveys expected 200,000 new jobs were added, but only 12,000 jobs were added in October, the lowest increase since December 2020. The US unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% in November, from 4.1% in October. Additionally, average hourly wages in the US are expected to increase 0.3%. month-over-month in November. Annual wage growth will likely slow from 4% to 3.9%. A report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies in the United States increased again in October and the number of layoffs decreased, indicating market demand for workers are stable. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold fell but fell short of its weekly target of $2,606 – $2,600 sent to readers in the weekly edition, it rose rapidly to retest the 2,644 technical level. USD. Temporarily, gold's recovery does not give it enough conditions to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index is still operating below 50. Along with that, the EMA21 is the closest resistance currently and as long as gold has not broken the price channel, it still has the main trend during this time which is down. Once again gold falls below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level which will be the best condition to head towards the weekly target area at 2,606 – 2,600USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below the original price of 2,600 USD with the target then around 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,657 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2584 - 2586⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2580 →Take Profit 1 2591 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2596
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
Prolonged accumulation, GOLD may need impact from NFP dataOn the Asian market on Thursday (December 5), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintained a moderate decrease during the day, gold prices are currently down to about 2,645 USD/ounce as of the time this article was completed. In terms of economic data on Wednesday, data from the ADP Research Institute and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab showed that the number of private sector jobs in the United States increased by 146,000 in November, less than expected. This number is expected to be 163,000. The ADP report shows mixed job growth across industries. The education, health care and construction sectors led the gains, while manufacturing employment had its biggest decline in more than a year. Hiring is also lower in the financial services and entertainment industries, according to data from the ADP Research Institute. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in an exclusive interview with the "DealBook Summit" hosted by the New York Times on Wednesday. On monetary policy, he said at the meeting that policymakers may remain cautious about cutting interest rates further. Regarding the US economy, Powell said the current situation is "very good" with falling inflation and relatively low unemployment. Powell noted that the US economy was stronger than expected in September, allowing the Fed to be more cautious in cutting interest rates. Powell said that although inflation has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target, there is no reason the economy cannot continue to grow. New news of a ceasefire in the Middle East has affected the safe-haven asset OANDA:XAUUSD Israel has made a new proposal to Hamas regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, including a request to release some of the remaining 100 people detained by Hamas, Axios News reported this morning (Thursday). Israeli officials say Israel hopes the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire in Lebanon and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump will create an opportunity to resume negotiations that have been deadlocked for three months. recently. According to the report, Israeli officials revealed that the updated agreement framework mentioned above was reached after a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and several senior ministers and heads of security agencies on the 1st of this month. . The new plan is similar to the principles discussed previously, but has some adjustments and is subject to adjustment and negotiation. Israeli officials say Hamas has shown more flexibility and begun implementing parts of the agreement. There are still 100 hostages being held in Gaza, including 7 Americans. The Israel Defense Forces believe that between 40 and 50 hostages are still alive. Gold is a risk-on haven asset, so if the market has less risk of conflict or geopolitical tensions it will become less attractive. Next event The next big event will be the November US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Surveys show US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 214,000 in November, up from 12,000 in October. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, the accumulation phase of gold prices continues to last with increasingly narrower amplitudes without any sudden waves to create a short-term trend. With the current position, it is difficult to distinguish which possibility gold is leaning more towards compared to yesterday's trading day. With price activity moving around the EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.618% and the technical point of 2,644USD. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also at 50, not going above or below this level. Taken together with the current position, gold is still neutral in the medium and short term. Meanwhile, a short-term bearish cycle has the opportunity to open if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level then the target level is about 2,606 USD in the short term, more than 2,600 USD. During the day, gold is currently in a neutral position, but in the long term, the falling price channel is still the main trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2681 - 2679⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2685 →Take Profit 1 2674 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2669 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is stable, trading day with lots of big data and eventsOn the Asian market on Wednesday (December 4), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,644 USD/ounce. In New York trading on Tuesday, gold hit a daily high as South Korea's martial law boosted safe-haven demand. South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue gave an emergency speech at the Yongsan Presidential Office in Seoul on Tuesday evening local time and issued an emergency martial law order. After this news arrived, spot gold soared to 2,655.64 USD/ounce. Gold prices then gave up gains when South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue announced the lifting of martial law. As of the end of Tuesday, spot gold increased 0.2%, closing at 2,643.38 USD/ounce. On this trading day, there are multiple event risks in the US, including the ADP employment report, ISM services PMI, Federal Reserve Begie Book and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech . Among them, the ADP jobs report and Powell's speech attracted the most attention. Today (Wednesday), US ADP employment change data for November will be released. This data is known as “small non-farm” and is expected to create a significant impact in the market. Surveys show that US ADP employment is expected to increase by 150,000 in November. Previously, US ADP employment increased by 233,000 in October. On the same day, the US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for November will be published and is expected to be 55.5. Fed President St. Louis Mussallem will give a speech. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release Begie Bôk on economic conditions. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be invited for an interview at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times. In his final speech in November, Powell said the Fed was in no rush to cut interest rates, citing a solid job market and inflation remaining above its 2% target. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still in a state of prolonged accumulation with price activity mainly sticking around the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the technical point of 2,644USD. Although gold has recovered after the previous decline, the overall picture is still inclined to decrease in price with the main trend from the price channel, on the other hand, pressure is still created from EMA21 along with activity. of the Relative Strength Index RSI remains below 50. These factors provide gold with conditions for a bearish trend. As long as gold remains within the price channel, its technical outlook remains tilted to the downside and rallies should be considered short-term recoveries. On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level it will likely continue to decline to a subsequent target of around $2,606 – $2,600. In addition, a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold is sold below the original price of 2,600 USD. During the day, the bearish technical outlook for gold will be noticed by the following points. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2681 - 2679⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2685 →Take Profit 1 2674 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2669 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD traded steadily, notable events and data during the dayOn the Asian market on Tuesday (December 3), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,640 USD/ounce. Notable economic data and events on this trading day Today (Tuesday), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This important employment data is expected to cause large fluctuations in gold prices this trading day. Economists predict that there will be 7.51 million JOLT vacancies in the United States in October, compared with 7.443 million in September, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Gold traders will also be watching for speeches by Federal Reserve officials. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Coogler will give a speech on the labor market and monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsby will give a speech. More information Trump urged BRICS countries not to try to replace the dollar and threatened to impose 100% tariffs if they did not comply. Trump's comments raised concerns that US interest rates will remain high for a long time and this will not be beneficial for non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, there are almost no structural changes as gold is still maintaining very modest price activity due to the lack of fundamental breakthroughs. In terms of factors, gold is facing more pressure with the nearest horizontal resistance at 2,644 USD along with the 21-day Moving Average (EMA21), in addition, the main trend currently dominating is the downward trend. by price channel. In the short term, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to decrease further with a subsequent target of around 2,606 - 2,600USD, which means the nearest support in the short term is also the 0.618 Fibonacci level. % price point 2,634USD. The relative strength index is still operating below the 50 level, although it is mostly moving sideways but this should also be considered a negative technical signal. During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the possibility of price decline with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD's recovery is limited, pay attention to this week's dataOANDA:XAUUSD remained stable above 2,600 USD last week, mainly supported by rising geopolitical tensions, but after Donald Trump won the US Presidential election, gold was still under pressure to restrain the possibility of price increases in terms of price. Basically because the USD will be supported by Trump's victory. Regarding gold's latest recovery, after US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data released earlier this week was in line with expectations, market expectations of an interest rate cut in May 12 by the Federal Reserve increased, pushing gold prices higher. Currently, the market is pricing in a roughly 66% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a significant increase from more than 50% a week ago. Geopolitical tensions in Europe caused by Russia's missile attack on Ukraine also provided support for safe-haven assets such as gold. The Israeli military said its air force on Thursday attacked a facility in southern Lebanon used by Hezbollah to store medium-range missiles, as the two sides accused each other of violating a ceasefire despite the agreement. previous agreement. Russia on Thursday launched its second major attack this month on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages in the country. Gold is often seen as a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical instability. Gold prices have fallen about 3% this month and hit a two-month low on November 14. This is mainly because the US Dollar has strengthened since Trump was elected and his tariff policies are believed to be likely to push up inflation, thereby slowing down the cycle of US interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve. This week the US will release key economic data including job vacancies, the ADP jobs report and the nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide guidance on the Fed's policy outlook. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP Working Data, ISM Services PMI, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit Wednesday Thursday: Claim weekly unemployment assistance Friday: US nonfarm payrolls report, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is trying to recover but is still limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci level and EMA21. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. In terms of overall structure, gold is still inclined to a bearish outlook with the main trend from the price channel, main resistance from EMA21, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet been able to surpass 50. Because So in terms of trends and dynamics, gold still has the prospect of decreasing in price more than increasing. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it does not technically have enough room for a long-term rally, so rallies should only be considered short-term rallies. In the immediate future, if gold falls below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, the next downside target will be noticed at around the original price of 2,600 USD. In summary, the technical outlook on the daily chart of gold prices leans to the downside with notable highlights listed as follows. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
Oil focus on EIA data and OPEC+ meetingTVC:USOIL increased slightly during the Asian trading session on Monday (December 2), trading around 68.30 USD/barrel. Market volatility has continued to decrease and we need to wait for new changes in fundamental factors to shape the short-term trend. This week we will focus on EIA inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, this week will release US non-farm data. If non-farm data continues to strengthen, it will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which will be detrimental to rising oil prices. Last week, as the geopolitical situation eased, pressure on the supply side eased and the market is now expecting that this OPEC+ meeting is expected to be postponed and increased production will support oil prices. On the geopolitical side, there are no significant new points. Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday that four Israeli tanks had entered Lebanese border villages. The ceasefire, which took effect last Wednesday, has reduced oil's hedging premium and sent oil prices tumbling despite accusations of ceasefire violations between the two sides. Although there are still many potential risks, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted oil supplies and oil supplies are expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency believes that there is a surplus of supply. is expected to exceed 1 million barrels/day, equivalent to more than 1% of global production. OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue extending production cuts at the upcoming meeting. With stagnant demand and oversupply, OPEC will face an uphill battle if it wants to push up oil prices. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL The main long-term trend is still down with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 and horizontal resistance levels around the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point sent to readers in previous publications. . In the short term, WTI crude oil has enough room to continue falling with a target of around 66.44USD in the short term, more than 65.28USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also maintaining activity below or around the 50 level, which is considered a bearish signal with the target being the oversold area. As long as WTI crude oil remains at EMA21, it still has a bearish short-term technical outlook, and the trend from the price channel continues to trend in the long term. In the current daily chart, WTI crude oil has a downward trend with notable points listed as follows. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 69.51 – 70.54USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 02 - Dec 06]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,721 USD/oz to 2,605 USD/oz, then increased slightly and closed the week at 2,650 USD/oz. The reason why gold prices dropped sharply in the early sessions of this week was because President-elect Donald Trump nominated Mr. Scott Bessent, a traditional Wall Street financier, to hold the position of the US Treasury. The market expects Mr. Bessent to contribute to stabilizing the US economy and increasing the strength of the USD. Besides, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, announced earlier this week, also eased worries about geopolitical tensions, reducing the appeal of gold as a safe haven. In particular, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tax on Mexican and Canadian goods imported into the US and proposed imposing a 10% tax on all products from China, also increasing concerns about a tariff war. , causing the FED to delay reducing interest rates, or even increase interest rates again. In addition, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) in November still increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, higher than forecast and much higher than the FED's target of 2%. This may make the FED more cautious in continuing to cut interest rates in the short term. Many people believe that the gold market will have some unpredictable fluctuations in the near future as it continuously reacts to Mr. Trump's comments before his inauguration. In the short term, gold prices next week will continue to be dominated by statements posted on social networks by Mr. Trump. In addition, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indexes: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, it may cause the FED to delay cutting interest rates at the December meeting. coming, causing gold prices to come under pressure to adjust next week. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will cause the FED to continue cutting interest rates, thereby positively supporting gold prices next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold price may still fluctuate between 2,500 - 2,750 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,600 – 2,606 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2539 - 2541⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2535
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased thanks to the weakening of the USDOANDA:XAUUSD rose, boosted by the weakening of the USD and safe-haven demand due to concerns about persistent geopolitical tensions. Despite recovering in the final trading session of the week, gold still recorded its worst month of performance since September 2023. The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest in more than two weeks, but was still up 2% in November as Republican Donald Trump's victory earlier this month boosted expectations of big fiscal spending. , higher tariffs and tighter borders. This month, gold prices have fallen more than 3%, the worst monthly decline since September last year. After Mr. Trump's victory, the USD continuously increased in price and triggered a strong sell-off in the gold market. OANDA:XAUUSD forecast Geopolitical instability is still increasing, gold prices may still increase in the near future. Gold is often considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical instability such as trade tensions or conflict. The new administration's policies in the US can impact economies, causing the central bank to increase gold reserves. This prompted a sharp increase in gold trading by central banks. This is the group that bought the most gold on the market recently. BCA Research recommends buying gold when prices fall due to long-term prospects. Gold is a commodity that benefits from the policies of the new administration in the US. Increased global policy uncertainty will support gold buying demand.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical risks pushed GOLD to increase rapidly in the short In the early trading session on Asian markets on Friday (November 29), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot rose suddenly and rapidly from the intraday low of $2,633 and headed into a key technical position for technical downside expectations. Impacted by escalating tensions in Ukraine. Russia launches joint attack, Putin "speaks tough" While Israel and Lebanon have reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement, this will essentially create pressure on gold as market risks become less. However, the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may continue to keep gold prices stable above 2,600 USD/ounce in the near future. The latest Reuters report on Friday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday local time said Russia could use the new "Hazel" hypersonic missile to attack Kiev in response to Ukraine's missile launch. Western fire penetrated deep into Russian territory. So far in the 33-month war, Russia has not yet attacked Ukrainian ministries, government agencies, parliament or the presidential office. Putin said on Thursday that Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine was a "response" to Ukraine's use of Western missile systems to attack Russian territory. Earlier in the day, Ukraine reported that energy facilities across Ukraine were being attacked by Russian armed forces. Ukraine's Air Force said Thursday that Russia launched a joint attack on Ukraine using missiles and drones starting early that morning. Most regions in Western Ukraine are under attack, especially Ternopil, Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky and others. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the social platform on Thursday that he had a conversation with the Air Force commander, the Minister of Internal Affairs and the Minister of Energy that day about the Russian attack. Mr. Zelensky said that the target of Russia's attack this time is Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russia launched about 100 attack drones and more than 90 missiles of all types. In the current market context, traders need to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts, their escalation or reduction will have a sudden impact on gold in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level but is temporarily limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and the EMA21 moving average. In the short term, Gold can still decrease in price as long as it has not broken the medium-term trend price channel. In the immediate future, gold does not have enough conditions to increase in price in the short term, but a drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level will cause gold to fall further with the goal of reaching the original price point of 2,600 USD. However, geopolitical risks are dominating the market, so any purely technical structure could be broken quite easily during this time. The $2,693 level will be the next target in case the 0.50% Fibonacci level is broken above. The market is very volatile in the short term, so long-term open positions will be less effective, and notable technical levels for the medium-term bearish outlook from the price channel on the daily chart will be seen. noticed again as follows. Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,663 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell rapidly in the short term, pressured by US dataIn the early trading session in Asian markets on Thursday (November 28), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly dropped sharply in the short term, currently trading around 2,629 USD/ounce. Gold prices gave up much of their earlier recovery gains after data showed inflation progress was stalling, as the data could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates further. According to Wednesday's economic data, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% month-on-month in October. While it did not meet expectations of 0.5%, it was an improvement. improved compared to a decrease of 0.4% in September. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US in the week of November 23 remained stable at 213,000, lower than the expected level of 217,000. The real (quarterly annually adjusted) rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States in the third quarter was unchanged from its baseline value, at 2.8%, and growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter. But the GDP report still shows that the US economy still has good resilience. GDP growth has exceeded 2% in eight of the past nine quarters. A report released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the Fed's favorite inflation index rebounded in October compared to September. The data supports Fed officials taking a more cautious stance in recent times. next interest rate cut. The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that excludes volatile food and energy, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, a highest since April this year compared to September, up 2.7%. Additionally, the core PCE price index increased 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with expectations. The PCE price index increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-on-year in October, both in line with the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The PCE index's annual increase in October was higher than September's 2.1% gain. Wednesday's data showed that U.S. personal income rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, significantly better than the expected increase of 0.3%. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting released Tuesday showed that although Fed officials said they expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, they said the pace Interest rate cuts will take place “gradually”. The gold market fluctuated strongly this week. As Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon declared a ceasefire, reducing demand for safe havens, gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in more than five months on Monday and prices fell to a low. most since November 18 on Tuesday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain its main bearish trend after approaching and coming under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement is a good signal for bearish expectations as the target behind that is at the levels of 2,606 – 2,600USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is flat below 50, if it is pointing down this can be considered a good signal for a downtrend. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it will remain bearish in the near term and price rallies should only be considered short-term recoveries without changing the current primary trend. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovered from $2,606, before a series of key weekly dataIn the Asian market on Wednesday (November 27), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is trading around 2,638 USD/ounce. During this trading day, investors will receive many important data such as the US PCE inflation index, which is expected to create great fluctuations in the gold market in particular and the financial market in general. The US will release some headline data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday today (Wednesday). On Wednesday, the US will release a series of important economic data, with US PCE inflation data expected to receive the most attention. Today, US durable goods orders for October, last week's initial jobless claims and third-quarter real GDP data will be released. Surveys showed the U.S. monthly initial durable goods ordering rate in October was expected to rise 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% decline the previous month. The number of Americans filing seasonally adjusted unemployment claims for the week of November 23 is expected to be 217,000, compared with 213,000 the previous week. Additionally, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is expected to grow at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.8%. On the same day, the United States will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report for October. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Surveys show that the US PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually. Additionally, the US core PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually. The core PCE price index could cause a short-term market reaction, with investors expecting core PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with September's gain. Data Stronger-than-expected data could boost the US Dollar in its initial reaction and drag gold prices lower. On the other hand, a level of 0.2% or lower could have the opposite impact on gold price action. Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps in December are currently at 63.1%, according to CME group's FedWatch data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the initial support level noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 2,606 USD and is now close to reaching the initial target resistance at 2,644 USD. The recent decline has created a medium-term trend price channel for gold. This price channel is inclined towards the possibility of a decrease in price. Along with that, gold will also be under the current main pressure with the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In the interim, gold still has room to recover as long as it remains above its original price point of $2,600, on the other hand if gold breaks $2,644 it could continue to recover a bit further with a target then around $2,663 The price point of the Fibonacci 0.50% is confluent with the EMA21. However, in case gold falls below the original price point of 2,600 USD, it will be eligible for a new short-term down cycle to open, with a target of 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD. During the day, gold's technical outlook leans towards price reduction along with the above recovery levels, notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2575 →Take Profit 1 2586 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2591
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading