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GOLD is close to the current level of 2,758 USDOn Tuesday (October 29) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price just touched 2,757.74 USD/ounce, setting a new intraday high and approaching the previous historical high. Traders prepare to release key economic data that will help set the tone for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Although tensions in the Middle East appear to have cooled, the Uncertainty about the US election still supports gold prices. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its two-day meeting starting November 6. Jobs and inflation data, as well as if the results of the US presidential election are contested, This could influence the Fed's decision. The market still expects policymakers to cut interest rates by 25bps at their November meeting. Lower borrowing costs are typically positive for gold, which does not yield a yield. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be about 98.4%. When the presidential election between Harris and Trump was still too close, gold had 3 consecutive weeks of increases despite the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the USD, which often puts pressure on precious metals, losing correlation. This describes both gold and USD as having separate supports. According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 as high prices suppressed jewelry demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has had 3 consecutive days of increase and is heading for the 4th day of price increase after adjusting and taking support from the short-term price channel and the 1% Fibonacci level. Currently, gold is close to the all-time peak set previously, once gold breaks the $2,758 level which is also the target increase since gold corrected down from this level, it will have enough room to continue. upside with the next target around 2,768USD in the short term, more than the 2,786USD price points of the Fibonacci 0.382% and 0.50%. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up with no signs of weakness as it approaches the overbought area, suggesting that bullish momentum remains solid, and as long as gold remains within the channel it will continue to trend. short-term upward trend. However, in case it is sold below 2,700 USD, it will open up expectations for a medium-term correction down cycle with the target at the area of ​​the EMA21 moving average. In the current market context, this scenario is quite unlikely. During the day, the bullish technical outlook for gold prices will be brought into focus again by the following notable levels. Support: 2,745 – 2,741 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,758 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2774 - 2772⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2778 →Take Profit 1 2767 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2762 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2730 - 2732⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2726 →Take Profit 1 2737 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2742
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce. Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand. Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market. It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year. Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year. Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week. Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant. Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel. In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels. Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price. During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below. Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2807 →Take Profit 1 2796 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2791 BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2752 →Take Profit 1 2763 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2768 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2756 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2761
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD new era levels, pay attention to today's GDP dataOn Asian markets on Wednesday (October 30), OANDA:XAUUSD delivery maintained its uptrend during the day and the gold price has now reached $2,780/ounce once again refreshing its all-time high and heading towards the target technical point noted by readers in yesterday's publication . OANDA:XAUUSD Continuing its upward momentum from the previous session, spot gold rose more than $32 on Tuesday due to uncertainty over the US presidential election and conflict in the Middle East, as well as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve, has enhanced the investment appeal of gold. During this trading day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. This is the most important economic data of the day and is expected to cause big fluctuations. on the financial market in general and gold in particular. Current market expectations suggest that the initial value of US real GDP in the third quarter is expected to grow at a quarterly rate of 3%. If GDP data is higher than market expectations, this could cause gold to correct short-term declines or react lower after a long streak of gains and support the USD. On the other hand, GDP data was much lower than expected, which should be supportive for gold and could see it continue to find new all-time highs. Ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting on November 6-7, traders will need to closely monitor more US economic data later this week including inflation and employment data. could provide direction for the Fed's 2025 outlook. Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Because gold does not generate interest, it tends to perform better in low interest rate environments and is considered a hedge against market volatility and risk. According to Bloomberg, the latest news coming from the situation in the Middle East, Israel launched an attack on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya on Tuesday, killing at least 93 Palestinians or more. missing. The US called it a "terrible incident". Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the latest report by Britain's Reuters on Wednesday said that the Gaza Ministry of Health announced that Israel had launched an attack on a residential building in the northern town of Beit Lahiya Gaza on Tuesday, leaving at least 93 Palestinians dead or missing, and 10 injured. Medical staff said at least 20 children were among the dead. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The technical chart continues to show that gold has the ability to increase in price comprehensively with the price channel currently trending in the short term. Gold has also had 4 consecutive days of gains after correcting from $2,758, it is heading for the 5th day with an active position that brings a lot of upside prospects. Currently, gold has broken above the price channel while maintaining price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension, which provides it with room to continue further gains with a subsequent target of around $2,786 Fibonacci price points. extended 0.50% attention to readers in yesterday's edition. As long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a short-term bullish outlook, along with that, once gold breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level it can continue to increase further towards the original price level of 2,800 USD, Fibonacci point 0.618% at 2,804USD. The relative strength index (RSI) has just broken above the overbought area, but has not yet peaked nor shown any signs of weakening, so in terms of momentum, prices can still be bullish with expectations of a correction around the area. The price point area was 2,800 USD when RSI peaked. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,774 – 2,768USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,800 – 2,804USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 →Take Profit 1 2794 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2789 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2740 - 2742⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2736 →Take Profit 1 2747 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2752
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY needs to pay attention to the BOJ meeting on ThursdayThe Bank of Japan will make a decision on interest rates this Thursday and the market currently expects the bank to leave interest rates unchanged. At about 10:00 Hanoi time on October 31 (Thursday), the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision. As fears of a recession in the US ease, the Bank of Japan may signal that its policy outlook will be less dovish. Recent data shows that Japan's core inflation remains under upward pressure, but the Bank of Japan will likely continue its "wait-and-see" approach at this week's meeting. The market will closely monitor the quarterly outlook report, as well as changes in the Bank of Japan's assessment of risks to the US economy and the recent depreciation of the yen. Technically, after being limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, OANDA:USDJPY has dropped to get more support from the upper edge of the price channel. Along with that, maintaining price activity above the 0.618% Fibonacci level will be a positive signal for the uptrend in the near future. Currently, USD/JPY is likely to test the 154.525 level in the short term, more so than the 155.222 level with an upward trend from the near-term price channel. However, the room for USD/JPY's price increase is no longer too wide as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching the overbought level, signaling corrections to occur. But as long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, it still has an uptrend in the short term, and as long as it stays in the price channel and maintains price activity above EMA21, it still has an uptrend in the medium to long term. The current price drops should be considered a short-term correction without changing the main trend. In the immediate future, the uptrend of USD/JPY will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 153.365 – 151.866 Resistance: 154.525 – 155.22 2
by Xayah_trading
WTI creates a price gap, room for price declineTVC:USOIL dropped sharply in the Asian trading session today, October 28, at press time WTI crude oil maintained a decrease of 3dollars on the day, equivalent to 4.18% and is currently trading at 68.6USD/barrel. The current risk aversion in the geopolitical situation has subsided. Israel's weekend retaliatory strike against Iran bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure without disrupting energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and further weakening pressure on the supply side, at the same time causing disadvantages for rising oil prices. With the US election approaching and demand expected to show no signs of recovery, some fundamental pressures have returned, causing the energy market to fall into a negative state again. Technically, on the daily chart of TVC:USOIL It created a GAP jump right at the opening of trading earlier this week and recovered slightly from the upper edge of the price channel. Although WTI crude oil recovered, it still has not reached the closest support level with the target of around 67.14 - 66.44USD, so WTI crude oil still has the ability to fall further before "filling the GAP". Usually, price gaps are filled, but this is sometimes not immediate, it can happen over the next one or more months, the important thing in trading is that it depends on the trend. WTI crude oil has been under pressure from the EMA21 moving average. Note to readers in the previous issue of WTI crude oil, along with that, the Relative Strength Index broke down from the 50 level, showing that The downside potential is very wide and the slope of the RSI also shows a huge downward momentum. Technically, WTI crude oil has enough pressure to decrease in price with main resistance at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with the downtrend, notable technical levels of WTI crude oil will be listed as follows. Support: 67.14 – 66.44USD Resistance: 68.59 – 69.73 – 70.56USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has broken out of the profit-taking trendSupported by tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions, OANDA:XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week. As a hedge against political and economic instability, OANDA:XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold. Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight. The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation. The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase. What should gold traders focus on in the current market context? Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future. 1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold. 2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results . This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset. 3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year. 4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President. General baseline assessment The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election. Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it. Economic data to watch out for this week Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision. Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls ; ISM manufacturing PMI index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels. After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point. The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below. Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2771 →Take Profit 1 2760 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2706 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2711
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [October 28 - November 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,714 USD/oz to 2,758 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,708 USD/oz, then recovered and closed the week at 2,747 USD/oz. In addition to basic factors, such as central banks buying gold, the BRICS bloc seeking de-dollarization, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, etc. are the main causes pushing up gold prices in recent times. Up to now, although tensions on the Korean peninsula have not ended, according to many experts, war is unlikely to occur on the peninsula. Because, major powers and international organizations have been trying to find ways to prevent war from happening on the Korean peninsula. As for the conflict in the Middle East, Israel has just launched an attack on military targets in Iran. According to Israel, this is the country's response to Iran's actions and Iranian proxy resources that have attacked Israel since January 10, 2024. The Israeli attack began at dawn on October 26, but ended three hours later. Israel warned Iran that if Iran responds to this Israeli attack, subsequent attacks will be stronger. Next week's gold price may continue to increase due to investors' worries about Israel's attack against Iran. However, if Iran does not retaliate against Israel, it is possible that next week's gold price will adjust back down. Next week there will be a lot of important economic data released. Notably, the non-agricultural employment report (NFP) is notable. The FED's dual mission will become the focus of attention next week when the market receives information about the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which is expected to remain at a high level. With the labor market declining and high inflation persisting, it is likely that the FED may only cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next month's meeting. This also somewhat negatively affects the psychology of gold investors, causing gold prices next week to be under more profit-taking pressure. 📌Technically, from a short-term perspective on the H1 chart, the gold price still shows an uptrend when the price is above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2720 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to conquer the round resistance level of 2800. In case the support level of 2710 is broken, the immediate gold price will decrease and adjust to around the 2680 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.758 – 2.748USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2679 - 2681⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2675
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD decreased slightly from 2,741 USDFriday (October 25) in the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly decreased rapidly in the short term. Gold price is close to 2,725 USD/ounce, down more than 9 USD during the day as of the time this article was completed. The latest news is that the United States and Israel plan to restart ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, which has affected gold prices in the short term. The US and Israel plan to resume ceasefire negotiations in Gaza U.S. officials said Thursday that U.S. and Israeli negotiators will gather in Doha in the coming days to try to restart talks to reach an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza. , Reuters reported today (Friday.) Qatar and Egypt acted as intermediaries in the months-long negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Previously, negotiations broke down in August this year, making it impossible for the two sides to reach an agreement to end the conflict. The conflict began when Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said David Barnea, the head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, would travel to Doha on Sunday, adding that CIA Commissioner William Burns would attend the talks. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to the Middle East this week in hopes of restarting ceasefire talks in Gaza following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Washington sees Shinwar as the main obstacle to a deal. “Going back to the ceasefire negotiations and the hostage issue, one of the things we're doing is looking at whether there are different options that would allow us to get to an outcome,” Blinken said. ”. In terms of economic data The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, but the number of people receiving benefits increased in mid-October, raising the risk of a rise in the unemployment rate this month. . Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 19 fell from 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000, the U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday. The decline in unemployment claims due to Hurricane Helen offset the spike in unemployment claims due to Hurricane Milton. The market had forecast 242,000 applications for unemployment benefits in the latest week. Helen and Milton make it more difficult to keep your finger on the pulse of the labor market. Unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August. Unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in July from 3.4% in April 2023, this is which led to the Federal Reserve's unusually large 50 basis point interest rate cut last month. This is seen as beneficial for the USD and not supportive of gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold was once again under pressure and fell slightly after reaching the initial target level noticed by readers in yesterday's edition at 2,741 USD, the Fibonacci price point extended by 1%. Overall, gold needs some time to adjust as it has had a long period of continuous price increases, indicators are at overbought levels as shown by the Relative Strength Index pointing down from the 75 and still far from the nearest support level at 50. In the short term, gold will likely test the area of ​​2,711 - 2,700 USD, which is considered the closest support area currently. In the event that the $2,700 raw price level is broken below gold, there will be room for a bit more downside with subsequent targets around $2,688 – $2,672 Fibonacci price points of 0.618% and 0.50%. Although reductions and corrections may still occur, in general the trend of gold is still up, in fact the uptrend is still being maintained with the price channel currently trending in the short term. As long as gold remains above EMA21, within the channel, its main trend is still bullish even if downward corrections occur, and short-term price points will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,711 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,741 – 2,748 – 2,758USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2766 - 2764⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2770 →Take Profit 1 2759 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2754 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2682⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2676 →Take Profit 1 2687 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2692
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Corrected, GOLD recovered and the trend remained unchangedOANDA:XAUUSD significant downside correction and recovery from the key technical area around the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Mainly influenced by the strengthening of the US Dollar and US bond yields, along with the easing of tensions in the Middle East were the main reasons why gold prices fell sharply on Wednesday. In addition, gold prices have recently risen too sharply, technical indicators have become overbought and part of the market has chosen to take profits. Markets are also concerned that the US presidential election in November could be competitive and it could take some time to determine a winner. Bloomberg reported that the US presidential election in November is entering its final weeks, the race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is taking place extremely fiercely. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows the two candidates are statistically tied in seven battleground states. In all seven states, the two candidates are neck and neck, with both candidates receiving 49% support from likely voters. The poll's overall margin of statistical error is 1%. However, the market also remains concerned that the conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate into a wider war. Despite the short-term correction, gold prices have increased more than 30% since the beginning of this year, continuously reaching new highs. Gold's rally has strengthened over the past few months as the Federal Reserve moved to reduce interest rates. Fund managers have also contributed to gold's rally, as hedge funds increased their net long positions in gold in recent sessions and investors increased their holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected significantly after the Relative Strength Index showed gold was in the overbought area (75%). However, the correction does not bring many opportunities for further price declines as the slope of the RSI is relatively low and shows signs of bending upward, depicting a weakening sell-off sentiment. On the other hand, gold is still above the short-term trend price channel. Note to readers in previous publications on the price channel. As long as gold remains in this price channel, its short-term trend is still bullish. The lower edge of the price channel is also confluent with the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, making this an important support area. Although gold has adjusted down, all short-, medium- and long-term conditions and trends are still in favor of price increases. Notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,711 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,741 – 2,748 – 2,758USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2682⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2676 →Take Profit 1 2687 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2692
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
WTI crude oil trend is neutral, with more bearish conditionsTVC:USOIL continued to recover from a decrease of 1% in the previous trading day after the US announced that crude oil inventories increased much higher than expected. After falling back, it continued to rise as the US election approached causing commodities to revive inflation expectations and the possibility of a further recovery in oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that crude oil inventories rose sharply, rising 5.5 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ended October 18, compared with market expectations. market for an increase of 270,000 barrels. Current concerns about potential oil supply risks due to conflict in the Middle East have partly offset the impact on crude inventories. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL Trading is currently quite slow with price activity mainly around the EMA21 level. Although WTI crude oil has recovered, the recovery is still temporarily limited by the resistance level of 72.39 USD and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In case WTI crude oil price increases and breaks the level of 72.39 USD, it will tends to rise a little further to test the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. The current recovery level of WTI crude oil is still not enough to create a bullish cycle as the Relative Strength Index is also approaching point 50, a position considered to be under pressure in terms of momentum. Once WTI crude oil is sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the recovery cycle will end with the target level then around $68.19 in the short term, more so than $67.14. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is currently neutral, with more bearish conditions and notable levels listed below. Support: 70.56 – 68.19USD Resistance: 72.39 – 73.80USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD eased slightly from new era highsContinuing to be influenced by the approaching US presidential election and the increasingly new conflict in the Middle East, along with other conflict risks in the Asian region have boosted OANDA:XAUUSD continues to be the top haven asset refreshing to new all-time levels. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading former Republican President Donald Trump by a slim margin, 46% to 43%. Strong buying activity by central banks and expectations of US interest rate cuts have also supported gold's 33% increase this year. Fed officials continue to weigh in on the future, with Jeffrey Schmid favoring a slower pace of rate cuts and Mary Daly predicting deeper cuts. Citigroup raised its three-month price forecast by 3.7% to $2,800 an ounce on expectations that continued labor market weakness will boost demand. Israel and its rivals Hamas and Hezbollah have vowed to continue fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, leaving little hope for a solution to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Rising geopolitical tensions often cause investors to flock to safe-haven assets such as gold as a "bunker" against risk and uncertainty in global markets. In the context of geopolitical and economic instability, gold is considered a safe haven tool to hedge risks, and lower interest rates also increase gold's investment appeal. Gold is up more than 33% this year and has renewed all-time record highs multiple times. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has not yet broken the price channel with the upper edge confluent with the price channel and this is considered the most important resistance currently. Gold is down a bit from the aforementioned confluence but overall in the interim it can only be seen as a weak correction signal, with the Relative Strength Index pointing down without breaking the 75 level, if the RSI turns down Below level 75 it will send a clearer signal for a correction towards the 50 area. Temporarily, gold's decline should only be considered a short-term correction, technical conditions still support the possibility of price increases. However, in case gold falls below the 1% Fibnonacci level it would be a good signal for a possible further correction with a target then around $2,721 and more to the $2,711 Fibonacci level. 0.786% expansion. During the day, the bullish prospect of gold prices with technical correction cases will be noticed again by the following price points. Support: 2,721 – 2,711 Resistance: 2,748 – 2,750 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2771 →Take Profit 1 2760 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2709 - 2711⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2716 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2721
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovered after adjusting from the target levelOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after a correction since reaching the reader attention target increase in previous issues at 2,741 USD. Gold soared to a new all-time high on Monday hitting $2,740.60 an ounce. Uncertainty over the US presidential election and war in the Middle East have contributed to gold's rally, which has been fueled by expectations of lower Fed interest rates. Gold prices have risen this year and have consistently hit record highs, a recovery that has accelerated over the past few months as the Federal Reserve moved to cut interest rates. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US elections are also increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Citi Research raised its three-month gold price forecast in a report on Monday, citing a possible continued slowdown in the US labor market, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased gold purchases. physical and ETF funds. The bank raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $2,800 from $2,700 previously and said its 6- to 12-month gold price forecast is $3,000. Specifically, the report said: “We note that despite weak retail physical demand in China and rising US interest rates, gold and silver have performed very well since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 points. basis last month and nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations.” According to the latest Washington Post poll, Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris are still tied in 7 important states. However, on core issues such as the economy, inflation and immigration, Trump's approval rating is higher than Harris's. A Trump victory would mean a completely different story, with more taxes and restrictions likely to negatively impact inflation, forcing the Fed to abandon its current loose monetary policy, meaning If Trump wins the election, it is likely that the USD will strengthen again and gold will come under significant pressure. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, according to local authorities, Israel conducted air strikes across Lebanon at night, targeting Hezbollah's financial activities. "We will continue to fight Iran's proxies until the country collapses," said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after adjusting from the target increase of 2,741 USD, gold recovered when approaching the nearest support level at the Fibonacci extension level of 0.786% price point of 2,711 USD. The current recovery is significant and is once again close to the key technical level at $2,741, the $2,741 level being the confluence of resistance of the upper channel edge and the 1% Fibonacci extension. If gold breaks above $2,741 it will be primed for a new bull run ahead, and indeed the target after gold breaks $2,741 is not to be found beyond round price points like 2,750 – 2,800 USD. During the day, structurally and the short-term trend remains unchanged to the upside with upward momentum remaining very strong as the Relative Strength Index points steeply upward without any signs of a bend or heading down from the overbought area, although the room for price increases is no longer large, there will still be enough motivation for shock increases (short and strong) before adjusting downward. The upward trend in gold prices on the daily chart will be noted by the following technical points. Support: 2,711 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,741 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2762 - 2760⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2766 →Take Profit 1 2755 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2750 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2694 - 2696⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2701 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2706
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is fully supported with a low data trading weekDue to escalating tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty about the US election and expectations of looser monetary policy, OANDA:XAUUSD surged up and created new all-time record highs. The market will still focus on increasing geopolitical tensions after Israel announced the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar was the mastermind of the Hamas attack on southern Israel that sparked the year-long Gaza war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue to fight until all hostages captured by Hamas last year are released, while US President Joe Biden said it is time for the war to end. During times of geopolitical and economic instability, investors often turn to gold as a safe haven asset. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, due to risk aversion and concerns about instability in global markets. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank could cut interest rates again in December. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders also see a 90.4% chance of a Fed rate cut. interest rate in November. Since gold does not yield interest, a rate cut could reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold and increase its appeal. This week, the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on interest rates. In September this year, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year prime lending rate (LPR) and five-year LPR unchanged at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively. The larger LPR cut should be seen as an impetus to push gold prices even higher early next week. S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October next Thursday. If the PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, indicating a contraction in private sector business activity, the short-term reaction could pressure the dollar and push up gold prices. On the other hand, a positive surprise could support the dollar. The market reaction to the PMI data was not large enough to have a lasting impact on gold prices. In general, this week will be a week with quite a bit of economic data, but with the current basic picture, gold will still be focused on due to escalating geopolitical developments. Readers also need to pay attention. add other threats of conflict from China - Taiwan, North Korea - South Korea,... in addition to the Middle East region, which already has too many potential risks. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: IMF meeting begins Tuesday: BRICS summit begins in Russia Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US existing home sales Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims; S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI Survey; US new home sales Friday: US durable goods orders Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD As we have sent to readers throughout the publications, the gold price still has an overall bullish technical structure on the daily chart. Currently, gold closed above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and this is necessary for it to continue towards the next target of about 2,741 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci level. With the trend from the price channel in the short, medium and long term, gold is in an upward trend, combined with a strong upward momentum when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points up with a significant slope. There is no sign of a break from the overbought level, a signal that the bullish momentum continues ahead. However, the level of 2,741USD is also the closest current resistance for expectations of a short-term correction because it is also the confluence position of the edge on the price channel with the 1% Fibonacci extension level, correction price drops. Corrections are not considered trends, they only have a short-term impact. Finally, the main technical outlook for gold prices is bullish, the notable points will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,711 – 2,700 – 2,688USD Resistance: 2,741USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2634 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2629 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2706 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2711
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
USDJPY moves sideways on positive conditionsAs the US presidential election is approaching, uncertainties will become the main focus of the market. Signs that former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the November election are increasing could contribute to the dollar's overall performance. can keep US interest rates high, thus increasing the appeal of the USD. In the short term, the Bank of Japan's policy statement on October 31 is a notable factor in the near term for USD/JPY and the Bank of Japan's clear attitude towards the adjustment should be observed. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to move sideways but in terms of the overall picture, the possibility of price increases still prevails. The main uptrend is noted by the price channel with key support at EMA21, and as long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a technical upside prospect in the near term. On the other hand, once USD/JPY breaks the confluence of the upper channel edge along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will have room to continue rising with a target then around 151.866 in the short term, more than Fibonacci level 0.618%. The relative strength index is flat above 50 but has not yet reached the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead. The general assessment, trend and outlook of USD/JPY is technically bullish and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 149.364 – 148.823 – 148.113 Resistance: 150,739 – 151,866
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 21 - Oct 25]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continuously increased sharply from 2,637 USD/oz to 2,723 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,721 USD/oz. According to market observations, gold prices have skyrocketed in recent days due to the impact of many supporting factors: First, the FED warned that it will continue to cut interest rates, although the extent of the FED's interest rate cuts may be less than the recent decision. Not only the FED, but many other central banks have also been implementing their plans to cut interest rates. This increases the appeal of gold. Second, the level of public debt worldwide is even worse than current forecasts, while the measures that countries are taking will not be enough to prevent a sharp increase in public debt. According to the IMF, global public debt will exceed 100 trillion USD, equivalent to about 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year and will reach nearly 100% of global GDP by 2030. Third, as central banks continue to walk the thin line between promoting economic growth and controlling inflation to prevent stagflation, global geopolitical tensions appear to be increasing day by day. Major conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, growing threats between Russia and NATO, Israel-Palestine conflict, tensions between Israel and the US with Iran, tensions between North Korea and South Korea, and many more threats Another threat has been increasing the role of gold as a haven. Fourth, after Russia was removed from the SWIFT system on March 1, 2022, BRICS central banks increased gold reserves at a record pace, promoted currency swaps, and promoted transactions. across borders between BRICS countries is a sign that they are preparing for a global monetary reset. Meanwhile, BRICS member countries account for about 40% of global GDP. This will certainly have a negative impact on the USD. Fifth, central banks of many countries are continuing to promote gold purchases to increase the proportion of gold in national foreign exchange reserves, causing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries to decrease. down, potentially at risk of USD depreciation. With so many of the above influencing factors, especially geopolitical conflicts, next week's gold price may increase even higher. However, the increase in gold prices is being driven by FOMO psychology, which will pose strong profit-taking risks, especially when geopolitical tensions cool down. 📌Technically, the price is constantly setting new high price thresholds, when in turn breaking through old peak milestones, specifically in the H1 chart, the gold price is approaching the 161.8 Fibo zone, and next week it may continue to conquer. Recovering the Fibo threshold of 261.8 around the round resistance level of 2,800 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.741USD Resistance: 2.688 – 2.700 – 2.711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Refreshing all-time level, GOLD is eligible to continue risingAs uncertainty about the US presidential election and war in the Middle East push investors to seek safe haven assets, and the monetary policy environment that tends to lower interest rates are the main factors pushing push up gold prices. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month, gold prices are set to gain more than 30% this year, driven by the prospect of further rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty. Since gold does not yield interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold and increase its appeal. On the geopolitical side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue to fight until all hostages captured by Hamas last year are released. During times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold. Israel announced that Hamas leader Sinwar was dead On October 17 local time, Israeli media quoted senior Israeli officials as saying that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by the Israeli army. Earlier on the same day, the Israel Defense Forces and the Israel National Security Agency (Sin Bet) issued a joint statement saying that, according to preliminary reports, the Israeli army killed 3 Palestinian armed personnel during the attack. military operations in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel General Security Agency are verifying whether one of them is Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar masterminded Hamas attacks on southern Israel, sparking a year-long war in Gaza. Concerns about the future of the US government are also driving demand for precious metals. With three weeks to go until the election, polls show the two candidates tied, creating uncertainty. On Thursday, economic data released by the United States supported the view that the economy will maintain strong growth in the third quarter. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates once next month, but they will reinforce expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, better than the 0.1% gain in August and better than expected. will increase by 0.3%. In addition, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased last week. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 241,000 in the week ended October 12. Economists surveyed had forecast The average number is 259,000. Bloomberg said Western investors also contributed to driving up gold prices. Western investors largely sat on the sidelines in the first half of the year as demand surged in Asia. The Federal Reserve's shift to a looser monetary policy has increased the appeal of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with their gold holdings on track to increase. 5th consecutive monthly growth in October for the first time since 2020. Longest capital flow since the beginning of this year. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has reached its target level of $2,711 after strong gains and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of gains. Structurally, gold is still on a short-term uptrend, noticed by price channels, and even in the medium and long term, it is also increasing with price channels as the trend. Once gold breaks the 2,711 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have the prospect of continuing to increase in price with the target level then being around 2,741 USD the price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension. Regarding momentum, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up with a significant slope and has not yet completely reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead, with absolutely no signs of possible reduced corrections and showed solid upward momentum in the market. As long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term, notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,688USD Resistance: 2,711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2738⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2744 →Take Profit 1 2633 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2628 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2664 - 2666⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2660 →Take Profit 1 2671 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2676
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
New news from the Middle East, GOLD gains and positive outlookOANDA:XAUUSD Reaching the target price increase at an all-time high of 2,685 USD, the haven asset continues to get stronger as the Middle East situation becomes tense again. Israeli sources say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved a series of targets in retaliation for Iran's missile attack on Israel earlier this month. US B-2 bombers have attacked weapons storage sites of Houthi rebels in Yemen in an effort to stop attacks by Iran-backed groups. US media mentioned that the US military's latest measures have disrupted the Red Sea supply chain. The US Department of Defense announced that US military forces carried out precision strikes on five underground weapons storage sites in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. US Central Command indicated that assessment of combat damage from airstrikes in Yemen is ongoing and there are currently no civilian casualties. Bloomberg reported that US B-2 stealth bombers attacked weapons storage locations related to Houthi rebels in Yemen. American B-2 bombers fly to the target from Whitman Air Force Base, Missouri. This is the first combat mission of this wing-shaped stealth bomber since January 2017. At that time, two B-2 bombers flew a 30-hour round-trip mission to bomb an Islamic State training camp in Libya. Each B-2 is capable of carrying up to 20 tons of bombs, including 80 500-pound GPS-guided projectiles. "This type comes to Vietnam in about half a day and can only be used to make rice cookers, combs, water ladles, trays, buckets, basins,... that's it." Meanwhile, the market sees a 92.1% chance that the US will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, according to CME's "Fed Watch Tool". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has an upside target at its all-time high of $2,685 and it currently has the conditions to break this level and refresh its all-time high in the short term. A short rising price channel is formed, notably by the price channel and the nearest support is currently in the area of ​​2,672 – 2,660USD. RSI points up but is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still plenty of room ahead. In general, on the daily chart, from technical position to space and momentum, gold is likely to increase in price in the near future. If the $2,685 level is broken gold will tend to continue rising with a target then around $2,700 as the whole price point or more like the $2,711 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The uptrend in gold prices on the daily chart will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,672 – 2,660USD Resistance: 2,685 – 2,688 – 2,700 – 2,711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2638 →Take Profit 1 2649 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD reaches price increase target, outlook remains positiveUS inflation data reinforces the prospect of an interest rate cut next month. Gold prices rose more than 1% in the weekend's trading session, while safe-haven demand triggered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday that the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices, was unchanged in September, suggesting the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting the view that the U.S. Department of Labor The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month. The report showed that US PPI increased 0% month-on-month in September, lower than the expected 0.1%, the previous value was a 0.20% increase. Commerzbank reported that gold ETF holdings increased by nearly 95 tons in the third quarter, meaning ETFs once again contributed positively to gold demand for the first time in 10 quarters. This week, the market will focus on US retail sales data to determine whether consumer spending will continue to be strong. In addition, the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions are also the focus of market attention. Traders will need to keep an eye on (Empire State Manufacturing Survey; US Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, as well as data on building permits and construction starts US housing on Friday.) In summary, although the gold market may experience volatility in the short term, in the long term, the safe haven asset gold is still the main factor supporting price increases. Including the recent reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, attracting investors to choose gold as a haven, combined with the widespread war in the Middle East, has further boosted gold prices, because gold is considered an investment channel. safety, especially during difficult times. geopolitical conflict. Going back a bit in history, in 1979, during the Soviet conflict in Afghanistan, the value of gold more than doubled during that period. If Israel carries out retaliatory attacks against Iran, the gold price has absolutely enough basis to continue to surge even stronger. Previously, on October 1, Tehran fired about 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Thursday: European Central Bank monetary policy decision, US retail sales, US weekly jobless claims: Philly Fed manufacturing survey. Friday: Housing construction starts and construction permits in the United States Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD During the weekend trading session, gold achieved the target increase in the weekly issue sent to readers last week and the upward momentum was temporarily limited by the technical level of 2,660 USD. If gold breaks above 2,660 USD, it will be eligible to continue to increase in price with the next target level after that at about 2,672 USD, more than 2,685 USD. Breaking the $2,660 level means that the price channel is also broken, while the Relative Strength Index pointing up with a significant slope reinforces the expectation of strong price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the bullish outlook and the technical structure for the uptrend are unchanged, pullbacks should still only be considered short-term technical corrections. In the coming time, the main prospective trend of gold is price increase and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,630USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2627 - 2629⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2623 →Take Profit 1 2634 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
News that the Middle East cools down brings GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD adjusted downward again in the short term after recovering and achieving the upside price target around the technical point of 2,660USD on yesterday's trading day. The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration that he is ready to attack Iran's military facilities, but not its oil or nuclear facilities. This can be seen as a sign of Israel's restraint in retaliating against Iran's missile attacks. According to a report by "Jerusalem Post", sources revealed that Iran has contacted Israel through secret channels, saying that as long as Israel's response is limited, Iran will consider this round of conflict to have ended. . These two pieces of news eased external concerns about the situation in the Middle East, thereby reducing the appeal of the safe-haven asset gold and causing the upward momentum to slow down, creating downward corrections in the future. short term. Next, traders will need to monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for further hints of an impending rate cut, as well as U.S. retail sales data. The market still sees an 88.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. Since gold does not earn interest, lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold . However, gold will react more strongly to "future" orientations. Therefore, it is possible that even if the Fed cuts another 25bps, it will not react strongly but will be influenced by Fed officials' comments on future direction, especially Jerome Powell. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's recovery was limited after hitting target gains at $2,660. The area around the technical point of 2,660 USD has created pressure causing gold to correct downwards but it is also receiving support from the 2,634 – 2,630 USD area. Note to readers in the previous issue. Along with that, gold is also receiving support from the position of the EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the main uptrend remains unchanged and the EMA21 level will still serve as the closest support for the uptrend. Once gold breaks above $2,660 it will tend to continue rising with a subsequent target of around $2,672. The $2,660 – $2,672 levels form an area of ​​resistance in the short term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,630USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2627 - 2629⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2623 →Take Profit 1 2634 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits upside targets, temporarily capped by $2,672OANDA:XAUUSD continues to get stronger, reaching the short-term target level at 2,660USD and aiming for the next target levels at 2,672 - 2,685USD. Boosted by falling US Treasury yields, investors cautiously await more data that could provide a fresh assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 95.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. Market attention will be focused on US retail sales data, industrial production data and weekly jobless claims data due out later this week. Gold prices have risen more than 29% year-to-date, with optimism about interest rate cuts fueling recent gains. Gold prices are also supported by strong purchasing power from central banks and safe-haven demand amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The latest news from Israel, two Israeli officials said on October 15 local time that although Israel's attack on Iran is not expected to target nuclear facilities and oil facilities, it could including missile and drone launchers, Iranian warehouses and factories, military bases, government buildings and other targets. Iran on October 1 launched a large number of ballistic missiles into Israel, attacking Israeli military and security targets in response to a series of previous Israeli attacks and assassinations. In security consultations involving Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Galante and other ministers, a comprehensive agreement was reached on the course of action against Iran, timing and intensity a response is possible, but the details still require final Cabinet approval before the action can be taken. Gold itself does not generate interest, but it has the potential to increase in price during times of geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered and increased to achieve most short-term targets from 2,660 USD to close to the 2,672 USD area. Temporarily, technically, the gold price is still limited by the level of 2,672 USD. However, maintaining above 2,660 USD will be a positive condition in the short term for the possibility of a technical price increase in the near future. Once gold breaks $2,672 it will be on track to continue rising more with a target then around $2,685 or so making new all-time highs. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up from 50 and is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth in terms of momentum. As long as gold remains within the channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook, and notable intraday levels are listed below. Support: 2,660 – 2,643USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2638 →Take Profit 1 2649 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY has bullish technical conditionsThe latest economic data suggests the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again next month, but a larger cut is being underestimated. Therefore, US bond yields remain stable and the wide spread between Japanese government bond yields and US bond yields continues to support the US Dollar. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY The uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the nearest support level at 148.113 of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Temporarily, USD/JPY's upside momentum is limited by the upper channel edge, once USD/JPY breaks above the channel it will continue to trend upward towards the 150.739 levels in the short term, more than 151,866. Even if the 0.382% Fibonacci level is not enough to support USD/JPY in the short term, it still has other support slightly lower at 147.113 – 146.424. As long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within price channel, it still has a bullish technical outlook with notable technical points listed below. Support: 148.113 – 147.112 – 146.424 Resistance: 149,364 – 150,739 – 151,866
Long
by Xayah_trading
WTI affects the Middle East and storms in the USOil prices were volatile but posted a second straight weekly gain last week as investors weighed potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and the impact of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased to 75.56 USD/barrel. Although US President Joe Biden has advised against attacking energy facilities in OPEC's third largest producer, the possibility of prolonging the conflict in the Middle East and there are increasing signs of this spreading will make the market nervous. Unrest in the Middle East has increased price volatility and prompted hedge funds to increase their net long positions. At the same time, a statement from the US Treasury Department said that in response to Iran launching ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1, the US is expanding sanctions on the oil and chemical industry. Iranian oil. Hurricane Milton swept through Florida and into the Atlantic last Thursday, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power, putting pressure on prices. Nearly a quarter of Florida's 7,912 gas stations were without fuel as of last Wednesday morning, as drivers stocked up on gas earlier this past week ahead of the storm. Florida is the third largest gasoline consuming state in the US, but the state has no refineries and therefore must rely on imports. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL slight correction after recovery and limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Up to now, WTI crude oil still has technical price increasing conditions with the main trend from the price channel, main support from EMA21. The confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level is the closest current support for WTI crude oil on the daily chart. If WTI crude oil breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to continue rising with the target level then being around 79.03USD. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the EMA21, it remains technically bullish in the short term, and the highlights are listed below. Support: 73.77 – 72.39USD Resistance: 76.40 – 76.84USD
TVC:USOILLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month. However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz. Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves. As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate. In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD. In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD. The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz. Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold. In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading