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GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day. While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying. On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August. Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene. OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday. On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month. Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack. Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time. US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran. Pay attention to PPI data US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August. PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area. The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term. There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2667 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2655 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2618 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is affected by the Middle EastAs recent jobs data prompted investors to lower expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and as tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing, gold prices fell. strong but it seems this is just a profit-taking move and not a downtrend with solid conditions. Following last week's positive jobs report, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently predicts an 86.8% chance of a 25% rate cut. basic point. Markets will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to be released on Thursday, followed by US consumer price index data on Thursday and producer price index data on Thursday. out on Friday. US inflation data due out on Thursday is expected to show price pressures continuing to ease, but there is little further push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in the meantime. next time. Therefore, the current gold price trend is temporarily governed by geopolitical developments. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. The market will have additional trading materials from the meeting minutes. The Federal Reserve almost unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, many Federal Reserve officials will speak during this trading day, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson, Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin, Fed Chairman Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Dallas Logan and Chicago Fed President Gu lsby. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Lebanese Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said in a televised speech at an undisclosed location on Tuesday that he supported the efforts of the National Assembly Speaker. Lebanon Berri aimed to promote a ceasefire without specifying Hezbollah's proposal. It is worth noting that this is the first time that Hezbollah does not consider ending the war in Gaza a prerequisite for ending fighting in Israel and Lebanon. OANDA:XAUUSD known for its stability and as a tool to prevent geopolitical and economic risks, and when geopolitical risks show some signs of cooling down, gold also falls due to weakening shelter demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting but there are also signs of recovery from the EMA21 level, the key support level you will pay attention to throughout these publications. With the main trend from the price channel and the EMA21 level not being broken below, gold's technical outlook still has conditions for price increases. In the short term, holding above $2,608 – $2,600 provides room for gold to recover with the nearest target at $2,634 and more to $2,660 once it breaks above initial resistance at $2,634. The relative strength index RSI points down with a moderate slope and is close to the area of ​​the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the closest support level currently, the RSI pointing up from this level will be considered a signal price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has enough upside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers moderately after sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD maintained a moderate intraday recovery after yesterday's sharp decline. Gold price is currently trading around 2,611 USD/ounce. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that the vast majority of Fed officials favored a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut. Traders' focus now turns to the US CPI data released today. Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Investors will focus on this report for more data to evaluate on the US interest rate outlook. The market expects US annual CPI growth in September to decrease from 2.5% to 2.3%. CPI in September is expected to increase by 0.1% over the previous month, lower than the previous increase of 0.2%. The annual US core CPI growth rate in September is expected to remain at 3.2%; Core CPI growth rate compared to the previous month in September is expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%. The market estimates inflation will continue to decline, data equal to or lower than expected would be a very positive signal for gold prices. However, if inflation is higher than the previous period, it will open the door for expectations that the Fed will pause the monetary policy easing cycle and this is not beneficial for gold, boosting the US Dollar. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trying to hold above key technical levels above the $2,600 full price and above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is quite weak, hindered by the EMA21 level. However, conditions still allow gold prices to rise technically with the trend channel not broken below, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching the 50 level, showing some signs of being broken. bend and if RSI points up it will be a positive signal for gold prices. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has conditions to increase in price. In case gold is sold below the level of 2,600 USD, confirmed by the price penetrating the level of 2,594 USD, it will tend to decrease further with the target level being able to reach 2,560 USD, the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. During the day, gold still has a technical outlook that leans heavily towards price increases with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600 – 2,594USD Resistance: 2,618 – 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2636 - 2634⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2629 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2624 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
NF data is coming in, GOLD remains stable with rising channelOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to maintain the recovery trend with a slight increase in the Asian trading session on October 4, gold is currently trading at 2,661 USD/oz, a slight increase equivalent to 0.21% on the day and about 5 USD as of today. the time the article was completed. Investors will release the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in September. The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released, this is the most important data this week. Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 140,000 in September, following a gain of 142,000 in August. US unemployment rate expected ​will remain unchanged at 4.2% in September. In addition to changes in overall nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate, investors need to focus on average hourly earnings data, which can provide important signals about inflation. broadcast. The average annual hourly wage increase in the United States in September is expected to be unchanged from 3.8% the previous month. Surveys show average hourly wages in the United States are expected to rise 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August. The September non-farm payrolls report is the next important economic data in the US that could affect Fed policy. If non-farm data is stronger than expected, this could further weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in November, thereby pushing the dollar higher and creating pressure. for gold price. Conversely, if non-farm employment data is lower than expected, this will be a positive signal for gold prices as it will boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply, and cause the currency to US Dollar weakens again. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading fairly stable with an uptrend after recovering from corrections and from the support area noted by readers in the previous issue at the lower edge of the price channel, confluence with horizontal support at 2,634USD. In terms of structure, there are no changes compared to previous publications, still an uptrend highlighted by the price channel and weekly target level at 2,672USD. Once the $2,672 level is broken above, gold will have room to continue rising a little further with a target then around $2,685. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension at $2,624, it still has a short-term technical bullish outlook. Notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2689 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD stabilized at the beginning of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD It is still trading quite stably as at the beginning of the week there were no macro data or events that created a shock on the market. On Tuesday (October 8) in the Asian market, spot gold is currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce. OANDA:XAUUSD weakened on Monday due to a significant rise in US bond yields, but gold's decline was limited as geopolitical tensions still had the potential for unexpected spikes. Gold prices reached a record high of 2,685.42 USD/ounce on September 26. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. Last week's US jobs report reinforced beliefs that the economy is unlikely to require significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, with traders currently pricing in There is an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by just 25bps next month. The market will focus on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes, as well as US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data this week. In addition, China's central bank did not buy gold for reserves in September for the fifth consecutive month. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had 4 consecutive days of decline, the price declines were not strong and did not create any breakthroughs, as the declines were limited and recovered quickly. Temporarily, the price drops should only be considered a technical correction without any impact on the main uptrend with the nearest support at 2,634 USD. Note to previous readers. The main support follows the EMA21 line, with gold recovering above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to set expectations to retest the 2,672 USD level once again. The relative strength index points down with a very moderate slope, not a significant bearish signal. In case the $2,634 level breaks below gold there is still some other support from the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the EMA21 moving average. There is no change in the main trend with price channel as the long-term trend, and notable technical levels are listed again as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,645 – 2,659 – 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2670 →Take Profit 1 2659 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD follows geopolitical trendsOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (October 4) after a better-than-expected US jobs report dampened expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar. However, geopolitical risks related to Israel and Iran supported gold prices, limiting the downward adjustment. The U.S. labor market added more jobs than expected in September, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting the job market outlook, the U.S. Department of Labor reported last Friday. much stronger than expected. New U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 254,000 in September, above August's revised 159,000 and better than market expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%. As a key indicator of inflationary pressures, annual wage growth increased to 4% from 3.9% in August, a monthly increase of 0.4%, in line with August data, The labor force participation rate was unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%. After strong employment data, the market expects that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, while lowering expectations for interest rate cuts at the next four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the market currently predicts the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.6%. . Israel does not guarantee not to carry out retaliatory attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official announced that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory attacks against facilities. Iran's nuclear program. Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East. The US official added that it was difficult to know whether Israel would launch a retaliatory strike on October 7, the first anniversary of a major attack by Hamas on Israel. Israeli officials say Israel will launch "retaliation" in the next few days after a major Iranian missile attack, possibly targeting oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran - according to Axios reported Wednesday. Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles. Axios also reported Israeli officials saying that if this happens, all options will be on the table, including an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. This week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. At the same time, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the decline in gold prices. An escalation in the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and the United States would be expected to provide potential support for new highs in gold prices. Economic data to watch out for this week Wednesday: Minutes of September FOMC meeting Thursday: US Consumer Price Index(CPI), Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold had a highly volatile trading week but overall remained stable with an uptrend, and all downward corrections recovered quickly when reaching support levels of interest to readers at 2,624 - 2,645 USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down from the overbought level, but the slope is not large and does not create any significant decline, showing that the market sentiment does not want to short-sell gold and the selling motivation is very weak. The trend of gold price will still be stable with short-term price channel and EMA21 as main support. As long as gold remains in the price channel, its technical outlook is still bullish. The target level is fixed at 2,672 USD, which means the nearest resistance is at 2,672 USD followed by the previously established all-time high of 2,685 USD. In the coming time, the gold price outlook will be shaped by the following technical levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2673 - 2671⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2677 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2625 →Take Profit 1 2636 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2641
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 07 - Oct 11]In the beginning of last week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,624 USD/oz to 2,672 USD/oz due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediately afterwards, international gold prices dropped to close to 2,631 USD/oz after US non-agricultural employment figures for September were announced at 254,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. In addition, wages increased more than expected when they increased by 0.4% last month. This reduces expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates by 0.5% next month. However, concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold prices up to 2,670 USD/oz, then closed the week at 2,653 USD/oz. This week, the US will release the minutes of the FED meeting and inflation indicators, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Previously, the FED paid more attention to labor market data. Now the escalating geopolitical conflict threatens to push oil prices up even more, putting pressure on inflation, so CPI and PPI will receive special attention from the market. If these two figures increase sharply, the FED may delay, or only cut interest rates by 0.25% next month. This will have a negative impact on gold prices next week, possibly pushing gold prices below the 2,600 USD/oz area. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price moves sideways and accumulates in a triangle model. If the 2630 support zone is penetrated, the gold price will adjust to below 2600. However, if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates strongly, it is possible that next week's gold price will break its peak. 2,700 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.600 – 2.625USD Resistance: 2.700 – 2.676USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2715 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD decreased slightly after the US employment reportOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (October 4), when traders almost stopped betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in next meeting. Interest rate expectations moved strongly after the market received the US September employment report much better than expected. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 2.2 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.08%, to 2,654.3 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. Kitco translation. For the whole week, spot gold price decreased by 4.6 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.17%. A report from the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 150,000 new jobs that economists made in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% instead of remaining at 4.2% as forecast. The USD increased sharply after the above report was published, and bets on a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting almost disappeared. All of these movements put downward pressure on the price of gold - the asset is priced in USD and does not carry interest. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD compared to six other major currencies, increased nearly 0.5%, closing Friday at 102.49 points, the highest since mid-August. This week, the Dollar Index increased by 2.1% due to a sharp drop in expectations for a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut by the Fed, not to mention the need to hedge against Middle East geopolitical risks, which encouraged investors to buy the currency. greenbacks and US treasury bonds. In the past month, the index has increased nearly 1.3% - according to data from MarketWatch.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
ADP exerts pressure, but geopolitics is the main influence nowOANDA:XAUUSD is trading quite stable during the Asian trading session on October 3, as of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,655USD/oz. After the release of stronger-than-expected US ADP data the previous trading day, the US Dollar strengthened and gold prices plummeted to 2,640.91USD/ounce. However, affected by tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have recovered strongly from low levels. Although the "small non-farm" ADP data stimulated a rise in the US Dollar and US bond yields, which was not good for gold prices, tensions in the Middle East supported gold prices, which is very easy to see recently as news and breaking points from the Middle East cover the market. U.S. ADP private-sector employment rose by 143,000 in September, more than an expected gain of 125,000, according to Wednesday's economic data. The previous value was an increase of 99,000. Israel will carry out “massive retaliation” in the next few days Israeli officials say Israel will launch "significant retaliation" in the coming days to Iran's major missile attack on Tuesday, which could target oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran, the American news website Axios reported on Wednesday. Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East. Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday. On Wednesday local time, Iranian President Pezeshyan visited Qatar and held talks with Qatari Emir (Head of State) Tamim. Pezeshchiyan said in a press conference after the talks that Israel's military operations against the Gaza Strip, attacks on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran and military attacks against Lebanon forced Iran to respond. pay. Pezeshchiyan warned that if Israel carries out retaliatory attacks on Iran, Iran will respond more forcefully. In times of political uncertainty, gold benefits from its safe-haven nature and can benefit from a rate-cutting environment because it does not generate interest. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has almost moved sideways in the last few trading sessions, and every time corrections occur it always recovers quickly and maintains the main uptrend from the price channel. The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension provides the possibility of continued price increases with a fixed short-term target at 2,672 USD, which also means that the technical point of 2,672 USD is currently the closest resistance. at, then at 2,685USD. There is no change in the technical structure with bullish conditions dominating the daily chart. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD soars, attention to the Middle East and dataAffected by tensions in the Middle East and falling US bond yields, demand for safe havens increased and gold prices achieved the target increase at 2,672 USD. Note to readers in the publication issue Before gold fake correction,. Gold prices are still hovering below recent record highs after the Fed Chairman hinted at smaller interest rate cuts in the future. As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, gold prices rose due to safe-haven demand. Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's actions against its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel in an operation Tuesday night local time. • White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran's missile attacks a “significant escalation,” but said they were ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because the US military helped shoot down several incoming missiles. • Sullivan emphasized that the attack will have consequences and that the United States is consulting with Israel on next steps or possible responses. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price. This series of launches was the largest missile attack on Israel in Iran's history. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that 90% of their missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. As of now, no casualties have been officially reported. Israel's emergency services have lifted all restrictions and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets. Iran's president says he does not want war but will resolutely fight any threat from Israel. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic and political turmoil. Gold posted its best quarterly gain since 2020 last quarter after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut. Major banks expect gold to continue its record price increase in 2025, due to a resurgence of large capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of further interest rate cuts from major banks. major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Gold has risen nearly $577 year to date, or more than 28%, which would be the largest annual gain since 2010. Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast in early 2025 to $2,900/ounce from $2,700/ounce, citing a gradual increase in ETF inflows as Western and Chinese interest rates cut and central banks increased strong buy. Next, the market will pay attention to this week's US labor force data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, for further guidance on the US's policy stance. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered and reached its target gain at $2,672 yesterday. Temporarily, the upward momentum of gold prices is also limited by the above technical level. Although the upward momentum is limited, the uptrend still dominates the daily technical chart. Once the $2,672 level is broken, gold will be eligible to increase further with a target level at an all-time peak established. Previously at 2,685USD. There is no possibility of any significant price decline, as long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term. Price drops that do not break below the price channel should only be considered short-term corrections. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Pay attention to Powell's statement, GOLD corrects and recoversOANDA:XAUUSD There were 2 consecutive sessions of price decline at the end of last month, mainly due to profit-taking activities without affecting the uptrend both fundamentally and technically. From a monthly perspective, gold prices rose more than 6% in September, reaching a peak of $2,685.42 last Thursday, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut, stimulus measures China's preferences and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Today (Tuesday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the National Association of Business Economics, which is expected to cause violent fluctuations in gold prices. Gold traders will pay close attention to Powell's comments for further information on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy. • If Powell signals a stronger interest rate cut, gold prices will certainly have to be pushed higher, because lower interest rates often reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making them more attractive to investors. • However, if Powell is cautious and signals a slower pace of interest rate cuts, gold may face downward pressure. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 36.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, which has supported gold prices. Over the weekend, Israel continued to attack Lebanon and claimed to have killed a senior figure of Hezbollah following the murder of the organization's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran, which backs the powerful rebel group, vowed to fight back and noted that Nasrallah's killing "will not go unanswered". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold's downside correction, it recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the current corrections still do not affect the main technical trend. The short-term uptrend is noticeable because the price channel remains stable, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, its short-term trend and outlook are still bullish. In addition, if gold breaks above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have room to increase further with the goal of returning to the 2,672 USD area. This means that $2,645 is the closest resistance currently. During the day, the technical bullish outlook remains unchanged and notable levels are listed again as follows. Support: 2,624 – 2,610 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,645 – 2,650USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 →Take Profit 1 2669 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2664 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Jobs data week, GOLD corrects with steady trendOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded slightly this past weekend on Friday (September 27) as traders received the latest US data, but gold also hit a new all-time record this past week due to Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further. Although the latest US consumer spending and inflation data reinforced expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates further in the coming months, it also failed to provide clarity on the question. How deep will the Fed cut? The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed inflation rose just 0.1% in August, below market expectations. This data increases market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement easy monetary policy. However, the data gap compared to the same period is not really large, this makes the market begin to divide into two directions; How much will the Fed cut interest rates in the upcoming FOMC period, 50bps or 25bps. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive in an interest rate cutting or low interest rate environment, which has pushed gold prices up about 14% this quarter, the best quarter since 2016. The latest consumer spending and inflation data from the US were the main economic indicators influencing the gold market last week. Inflationary pressures have eased, signs of growth in consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further for the rest of the year. Currently, the market is expecting the Fed to cut another 75 basis points over the remainder of the year. This expectation has become the main driving force to help gold prices continue to increase this week, and looking into the future, this is still important support for gold's fundamental uptrend in the near future. At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have added to market uncertainty. Uncertainties about the Middle East situation and the US presidential election have increased market demand for safe havens, further supporting gold prices. This week will be a trading week with a lot of important macro data from the United States, the focus will be on non-farm employment data (NFP). It is expected that gold will have another turbulent trading week. market government. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE meeting Tuesday: European CPI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Employment Wednesday: ADP jobs report Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, ISM services PMI Friday: Nonfarm payroll report Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold corrected from $2,672 as target resistance, it recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension support point noted by readers in the previous issue. Although gold has corrected, structure and bullish conditions are still dominating the daily technical chart, with a short-term trend from the price channel and key support from the EMA21 and trend from the price channel. However, the Relative Strength Index is falling from the top of the overbought zone, if it falls below the 80 level this could be seen as a signal for bearish space ahead. With gold having increased for many days, it is very normal for a technical correction to occur. As long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21, the trend and outlook are still bullish. In case gold is sold below 2,645 USD it will tend to decrease further to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level without affecting the main uptrend. Looking ahead, the trend and prospect of gold is technically bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,645USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2696 - 2694⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2700 →Take Profit 1 2689 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 →Take Profit 1 2631 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2636
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Fundamental factors have the main impact on the WTI trendTVC:USOIL ended up slightly higher last Friday but fell more than 3% for the week as markets gauged expectations for increased global supply and considered new stimulus measures from major countries in Asia, which import leading crude oil exporter. - On one hand, OPEC+ plans to start increasing production in December, which has been particularly suppressive on oil prices and was the main negative factor for the oil market last week. - On the other hand, the withdrawal of many stimulus policies by major powers, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and the escalating conflict in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices. Central banks of major Asian countries cut reserve requirements and interest rates last Friday, and governments of major Asian countries are launching a final round of stimulus to boost growth. The economy returns to the target of about 5% this year. Israel said it bombed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes in Lebanon, expanding its alliance with Iran in the region two days after killing the leader of Hezbollah. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the confrontation. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL Currently trading quite stable after recovering from the support level of 67.26USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. The recovery momentum is also being limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal resistance level of 69.31USD. However, looking at the overall technical picture, WTI crude oil is having more bearish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, pressure from EMA21 and weak recovery momentum when the RSI Strength Index turns down. price reduction signal. In the near term, if WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the important technical level at 67.26USD it is likely to continue to decline more with a target level of 65.25USD. Even if WTI crude oil recovers further, it will still be limited by the EMA21, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper edge of the price channel. The bearish trend in WTI crude oil dominates the daily technical chart, and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 67.26USD Resistance: 68.74 – 69.31USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
USD & Gold Market Review September 30, 2024Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart The situation is that the Market is quite uncomfortable because it has been 2 weeks, but the USD still has no clear direction for itself. Looking at the event chart above, you can see that the negative psychological price mark is 101.5 - FOMC – interest rate cut by 50 points. - Manufacturing PMI conflicts, but can still be assessed as bad. - Shigeru Ishiba puts pressure on the USD, as JPY may get stronger. - PCE is a bad personal inflation index. ==> A lot of big bad news below the 101.5 mark but the USD still moves sideways up and down, not moving strongly to the number 9x.xxx ==> Although the USD has lowered its closing price WEEKLY, it still causes discomfort because of bad news, such a decrease is not right. Is there a time when USD will suddenly turn over??? What's on this week??? - In early October, at dawn on October 1, 24, Powell spoke - Friday has employment and NONFARM data SPDR Gold Trust Analysis Daily chart of Gold prices and Gold Reserves - SPDR reduced reserves by 5.18 tons last Friday. However, just a 1-day reduction doesn't give much information, so that's all we know for now. - The LONG SHORT index of retail traders shows that traders are afraid of SELLing and have the psychology of changing to BUY, so the Market's ability to Kill Sellers is reduced, meaning it is limited in pushing prices up further. GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) stock chart vs. Gold price The GLD chart is a stock active in the US session, it coincides with the gold price chart when the US stock session opens. Looking at price behavior with volume on the GLD chart, we see that most of it is bearish behavior, like profit taking at the peak. => So in my opinion, the 246 price mark of GLD corresponds to the 2660-65 price range of the gold price, which is a psychological pivot for GLD (SPDR Gold Trust stock). Analyze the Gold Future Market Volume chart Price areas with converging Volume on the H4 chart include: 2660, 2625, 2580. Prices are often easily attracted and rotate around these price axes. Currently on Chart H4 and H1, it can be seen that Gold has a bearish channel and is below the 2660 mark at the end of last week. Conclude Pay attention to the BULL BEAR 2660 position pivot price range BULL faction - The BULL side should only join the fight when the price has increased past 2660, and there is action to create price support above 2660. - Or the price drops completely to 2625 to consider further recovery behavior of BULL. BEAR faction - Because the trend is still up, Sellers also need to be careful because there is not much Bear support. - Currently, there is a downward price channel below the 2660 mark, so Sellers should embrace this current price channel to enter orders and minimize risks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 30 - Oct 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise to a new peak at 2,685 USD/oz. However, after that, profit-taking pressure caused the international gold price to drop to 2,643 USD/oz and close the week at 2,658 USD/oz. Gold prices continued to increase strongly this week mainly due to the FED cutting interest rates by 50 percentage points in last week's meeting. Notably, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index for August announced this week only increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, down from 2.5% in July. and is the lowest level since February 2021. PCE in August was close to the FED's target of 2%. This further strengthens expectations that the FED will continue to sharply cut interest rates in the near future. In the current context, the FED's biggest concern is to revive the labor market, which has been stagnant in recent times. Next week, the US will announce non-agricultural employment (NFP) data and the unemployment rate for August. According to forecasts, NFP in August will only reach about 144,000 jobs and the unemployment rate may remain at low levels. 4.2%. If these data are as predicted, it will also increase expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates in the coming period, thereby positively affecting gold prices next week. 📌However, the problem that many investors and experts are concerned about right now is that the gold price is deep in the overbought zone, clearly shown through the MACD, RSI... Therefore, the possibility of pressure cannot be ruled out. Profit taking will increase again, causing gold prices to suffer another correction next week at the current high price range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.645 – 2.624USD Resistance: 2.685 – 2.672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell as investors took profitsOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (September 27) due to pressure from profit-taking activities, but are on track to complete the strongest quarter increase in 8 years thanks to the prospect of lower interest rates globally, especially is the monetary policy pivot in the US. World gold prices have continuously set records in the first 4 trading sessions of this week. In particular, the all-time peak of spot gold price is 2,685.42 USD/oz recorded on Thursday session. In the third quarter, gold prices increased by 14%, the strongest increase in a quarter since the first quarter of 2016. This year, gold prices have increased 29%, the strongest increase in a year in the past 14 years. In the last session of the week, investors received positive data on inflation, data points that could provide additional reasons for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting interest rates. A report from the US Department of Commerce only showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) - the Fed's favorite inflation measure - increased by 0.1% in August, consistent with economists' forecasts. out in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. Compared to the same period last year, PCE increased by 2.2%, lower than the forecast of 2.3%. After the report was published, the market slightly increased bets on the possibility of the Fed continuing to sharply reduce interest rates at its November meeting. According to data from the FedWatch Tool of the CME trading floor, traders are Betting on the possibility of more than 54% of the Fed choosing a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut in the next meeting, and nearly 46% betting on a 0.25 percentage point reduction. However, gold prices still had a falling session as many investors realized profits at record prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
USDJPY recovers, although USD loses support from interest ratesAccording to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 62.2% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its November 7 meeting, up from 37% a week ago, and a 37.8% chance of a cut. reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. In the future, if the market continues to maintain high probability expectations about the level of interest rate cuts of the US Dollar, the US Dollar will still be under pressure. This trading day is an important trading day when many key Fed officials speak with US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The content of these statements will affect the Dollar and the exchange rate. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut will then fundamentally affect USD/JPY. Looking at the daily chart, USDJPY is still on the recovery path and is achieving certain bullish conditions by breaking above the trend price channel and breaking above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). On the other hand, if USD/JPY continues to maintain price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will tend to continue to increase further towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.382% price point of 148.113. In addition, the Relative Strength Index rising above the 50 level also shows that there is still quite wide room for price increases ahead towards the 80 level. OANDA:USDJPY also forms a short-term trend price channel that is noticed by the price channel, and the short-term trend is leaning towards the bullish trend, and notable technical levels will be listed below. Support: 142,941 – 141,531 Resistance: 148.113
by Xayah_trading
GOLD steadies as Powell and Fed shake up trading day todayOANDA:XAUUSD is still trading quite stable in the early Asian session today (September 26) with both fundamental and technical uptrends being maintained. Currently, the gold price is around 2,660 USD/oz. This trading day, gold traders will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in gold prices. Traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and US PCE inflation data for more details on the direction of interest rate policy. Today (Thursday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will pre-record a video to deliver the opening address of the New York Fed's 2024 Treasury Markets Meeting. Last Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.” In addition to Powell, several key Fed officials spoke today (Thursday). Today (Thursday), Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy today (Thursday), New York Fed President Williams will give a speech; Fed Governor Barr will also speak at the same time. In terms of US economic data, on Friday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. state. So this data needs to be closely watched and it is expected to bring significant volatility in the financial markets as a whole. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's upward momentum is temporarily limited by the $2,672 level, the resistance point noted by readers in previous publications. However, the trend and technical structure remain unchanged, still leaning completely towards the uptrend with the price channel as the short-term trend and EMA21 as the most important support. However, the price increase is slowing down combined with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at the peak of the overbought area, showing that there is not much room for price increases and is consistent with the expectation of a downward adjustment without change the trend. In the immediate future, gold may adjust down to 2,645 USD, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension or more than the 0.618% Fibonacci level. It must be noted that a correction is different from a long-term trend, because the main trend of gold prices is bullish so open positions taking advantage of the possibility of a correction should also be closed in the short term. During the day, the uptrend with the expectation of a correction in gold prices will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2694 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2603 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2619
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Data and the risk of widespread conflict, GOLD finds new peaksAs tensions in the Middle East and US consumer confidence worsen, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal OANDA:XAUUSD , along with falling US Treasury bond yields and a weakening US Dollar, gold prices have once again renewed their all-time record high. In terms of data The Conference Board reported Tuesday that U.S. consumers' views of the economy worsened in September as concerns about jobs and business conditions grew, with the index Consumer confidence recorded its largest drop in more than three years. The Conference Board reported that the US consumer confidence index fell sharply to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Survey of Dow Jones had forecast the number to be 104. Iran's President warned Israel to conduct heavy air strikes Israel announced that it launched a large-scale airstrike against "Hezbollah targets in Lebanon" on September 23, hitting more than 1,600 targets. Israel continued to conduct new air strikes in many places in Lebanon on September 24. According to Britain's Reuters, on September 23 local time, Iranian President Pezhiziyan said in New York, USA that Israel hopes to draw the Middle East into the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah that has lasted nearly a year. past, by provoking Iran into "total war" and warning that its consequences would be "irreversible". Asked whether Iran would retaliate after Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack in the Iranian capital Tehran in late July, Pezeshizyan said: "They will respond in the appropriate way." at the appropriate time and place." As fighting between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israeli military escalated sharply, Hezbollah has urged Iran to launch attacks on Israel in recent days. A direct Iranian attack on Israel would significantly further destabilize the region and could draw the United States into war. The US Federal Reserve's beginning to loosen monetary policy also pushed up gold prices because gold does not generate interest and lowering interest rates can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Major investment banks expect gold's record price increase to continue through 2025 due to large capital inflows into gold ETFs and expectations of further interest rate cuts from central banks the world's largest. The basic picture has not changed as gold is still a comprehensively supported choice, both in terms of macro data, monetary policy and geopolitical developments that are increasingly new and complex. more complicated with the risk of spreading. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is having its fifth consecutive day of price increases, the next target level will be the $2,672 mark as the $2,645 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension was quickly broken during the trading day. Yesterday. It is difficult to trade at the present time even though the main trend is still bullish with the price channel as the short-term trend. However, the Relative Strength Index has peaked in the overbought area, suggesting that there may not be much room left for the price to rise. In principle, the market will not move in a straight line, so during this time there is a basis to expect a short-term correction without changing the trend. The correction will likely be limited by support points from the 0.786% Fibonacci in the short term, and more so the 0.618% level. However, it must be reiterated that all technical and fundamental conditions are pointing in the same direction of price increase, and the uptrend with the expectation of short-term adjustment and of gold prices will be noticed by high levels. following technique. Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2694 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2603 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2619
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is still looking for new peaks, PCE is the focus this weekAt the end of the last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased above 2,620 USD/oz, continuing the existing upward momentum due to expectations that the US will continue to cut interest rates and increasing tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut after concluding a two-day policy meeting in Washington. , lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020. Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. In a statement, policymakers said they would consider “adjustments “addition” to interest rates based on “upcoming economic data.” They also noted that inflation "remains high" and that job growth has slowed. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his post-FOMC press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.” Next week, several Fed officials will speak and it is expected that these statements will have a short-term market impact. • Next Monday, Bostic, the FOMC 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook. • Next Tuesday, FOMC 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech. • Next Thursday, Boston Fed President Collins will host a virtual meeting on central bank supervision and financial inclusion, and Fed Governor Coogler will attend. • Next Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will broadcast a video to open an event. • Next Thursday, the FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Fed President Williams will speak. Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak next Thursday. • Next Friday, FOMC 2026 voting committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Barr Next Friday, FOMC 2025 voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler spoke. Next week's data focus will be on August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Next Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. If the core PCE price index rises 0.3% month-on-month or above expectations, that could boost the dollar and put pressure on gold. On the other hand, weak data could put immediate pressure on the USD and support gold prices to rise further. Economic data to watch next week Monday: S&P Flash PMI Tuesday: US consumer confidence Wednesday: New home sales in the United States Thursday: Durable goods orders, third quarter GDP, weekly unemployment claims; US pending home sales Friday: US PCE Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to find new all-time highs with conditions tilting towards the upside. From the long-term price channel and the EMA21 line, they point towards an increase in price. Using Fibonacci extension to follow the trend, gold temporarily closes weekly below 0.618% and this is also the confluence point with the upper edge of the price channel. Once this level is broken, gold will tend to increase further towards the 2,645 USD area, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The relative strength index RSI is pointing up with a large slope without showing signs of weakening from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead although not much. However, in the current trading environment, strong corrections can still occur quickly with the levels of 2,610 - 2,600 - 2,595USD being the closest current supports. Finally, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,610 – 2,600 – 2,595USD Resistance: 2,631 – 2,645USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2582 →Take Profit 1 2593 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2598
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical tensions escalate, GOLD is heading to a new peakOn the Asian market on Tuesday (September 24), spot gold continued its recovery trend. The current gold price is at around 2,634USD/ounce, close to the historic high reached the previous trading day. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 48.6% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.4%. The market is pricing in a higher likelihood of a 50bps interest rate cut by the Fed in November, which weakens the US Dollar and supports gold prices in terms of correlation. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks stem from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as U.S. political instability ahead of the November election and recession concerns. The economy will support the safe haven price of gold. Gold is known as a traditional safe haven whenever risks appear in the market, while currently political and economic instability appears. dense. Therefore, the basic trend of gold prices will still be upward. Israel launched airstrikes on so-called Hezbollah weapons sites in southern and eastern Lebanon on Monday, killing nearly 500 people and raising the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. The Pentagon said Monday that the United States will send more troops to the Middle East as violence increases in the region, the Associated Press reported. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is supported by the trend from the short-term price channel and is currently continuing to recover after a slight correction yesterday. Currently, gold is moving towards the initial target increase noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,645USD which is the confluence of the edge on the price channels and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. At 2,645USD, it is expected that there will be certain adjustments but will not affect the main short-term trend of price increase. The relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought area on the daily chart so there may not be much room left for the price to rise and is in line with expectations of a downward correction from the aforementioned confluence. Notable technical levels for the day are listed below. Support: 2,624 – 2,613 – 2,610 Resistance: 2,634 – 2,645USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2582 →Take Profit 1 2593 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2598
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher. In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up. China's massive stimulus policy Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic. The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer. New developments in the Middle East Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes. Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production. The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously. However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD. In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
BOE may still warn of inflation, GBPUSD raises new targetThe British pound (GBP) will continue to outperform after the Bank of England signaled that it will maintain its restrained approach to interest rate cuts. Bank of England Governor Bailey said the central bank needs to be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much. He also said that since the August meeting, inflationary pressures in the UK have continued to ease and overall economic performance is in line with expectations. The Bank of England certainly seems not to be on the Fed's side and will not send a signal to lift its inflation warning. The British pound will likely continue to perform well in the near term, based on fundamentals. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD in the main uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 level as the main support. The current position of GBP/USD above the 0.50% fibonacci extension shows that it could still continue to increase briefly in the near term with the 0.618% Fibonacci level, 1.33717 price point as the target. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit of room for price growth ahead. As long as GBP/USD remains within the price channel, the main outlook will remain bullish and in the short term notable levels for a bullish outlook are listed below. Support: 1.33009 – 1.32301 Resistance: 1.33717
Long
by Xayah_trading