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EURUSD remains tight as the market can take cues from PCE dataThe lack of US data last week resulted in lower volatility, benefiting the dollar and treasury yields. Low volatility favors higher yielding currencies in the FX market. The upcoming US PCE data could impact the dollar's performance. Better than expected survey data on Friday revealed a decrease in inflation expectations, causing temporary weakness in the dollar and a rise in EUR/USD. This recovery in EUR/USD may lead to bearish movement next week. If inflation in the eurozone, particularly in Germany, continues to weaken, the euro could face pressure midweek. Many ECB officials have expressed a preference for a 25 basis point cut next month, which could lead to further easing leading up to the June ECB meeting. In contrast, the May Fed meeting minutes showed a more hawkish approach and lack of confidence in reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target, supporting a stronger US dollar and higher US yields. The upcoming EU inflation data could cause the Lower German pair to trade lower. This could be further influenced by disappointing PCE inflation. If there is no new swing high at the beginning of the week, it may lead to a bearish move for the rest of the week. A sell-off could occur if the pair drops below 1.0800, while a bullish continuation would require surpassing the recent high of 1.0895 on a daily closing basis.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has broke back of interests for the weekEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the euro zone inflation being under control. In contrast, the recently released Fed minutes indicate a negative impact on the committee's confidence in achieving 2% inflation and suggest that it will take more time to recover. The minutes were recorded before the latest US CPI data, highlighting that a single positive print is not enough for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts seriously. EURUSD was expected to give up last week's gains as the FX market focused on higher yielding currencies like the US dollar, Pound Sterling, and the Kiwi dollar. Despite breaking out of an ascending channel, EURUSD traded slightly higher in the London AM session following improved European flash PMI data for May. German manufacturing data showed signs of improvement, moving closer to the neutral 50 mark, and there was a slight increase in sentiment in the services sector as well. Channel support, now resistance, serves as the nearest challenge to dollar strength heading into the end of the week. 1.0800 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) present downside levels of interest.
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 15 - July 19]Latest data shows that it is impossible to cool down the gold market. Spot gold closed down about 4 dollars at 2,410 USD/oz, recovering quickly from the short-term selling pressure created when PPI data was released. US PPI rose slightly higher than expected in June as higher carrier margins more than offset falling commodity costs. On Friday (July 12), data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the producer price index (PPI) increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. last year, higher than expected. However, Gold prices rose to their highest since May 22 on Thursday after a surprise drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data reinforced the view that the deflationary trend has continued and raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. as early as September. With the Fed now wary of labor market weakness, financial markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and are predicting a further fall in borrowing costs in December. As noted by readers in the brief comments when the data was released on the impact trend observation data, PPI data is typically not tracked as closely as CPI data so the impact of it for CPI data will be insignificant. In other words, if CPI and PPI are on the same trend, PPI will synergistically boost the impact of CPI. Otherwise, if PPI is not on the same trend, its impact will not be as great as CPI. As the market gradually approaches a low interest rate environment (assessing expectations based on macro data), inflation cools and dovish comments from the Fed increase expectations for interest rate cuts, these factors will be solid support for precious metals. Not taking into account other unexpected factors from geopolitical risks that can escalate at any time, in all cases when geopolitical conflicts occur, gold is always chosen as a safe haven. Notable economic data and events next week Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Tuesday: Retail sales in the US Wednesday: US housing construction figures and building permits Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending July 9, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 13,062 lots to 191,603 lots . Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After adjusting and retesting the support area noted by readers in the previous edition, the area around 2,400 - 2,390 USD gold recovered to close above the original price of 2,400 USD. In terms of weekly closing position, the weekly closing above 2,400 USD should be considered a positive signal because at this point the original price point of 2,400 USD has become the closest technical support point of gold price. The bullish technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the medium-term trend and the price channel as the short-term uptrend. The fact that gold keeps its price activity in the above two price channels provides conditions for price increases towards the levels of 2,425 - 2,449 USD in the near future, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is an overbought level. The place to buy is still available. Looking ahead, technical conditions support a bullish case for gold prices on the daily chart, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,425 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will first be to buy if the price is around 2375, watch to sell around 2450, then wait to buy again at 2350, wait to sell at 2480.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD driven by CPI, next eye on PPI dataThe release of the US inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. The US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices reached a 6-week high then corrected slightly in the Asian trading session today Friday (July 12). CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut • US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates. • The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year. • Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021. • The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021. CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate. Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart. The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439 ⚰️SL: 2445 ⬆️TP1: 2434 ⬆️TP2: 2429 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2391
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased about 1%, the third consecutive week of increaseWorld gold prices decreased but still maintained the 2,400 USD/oz mark in the trading session on Friday (July 12) and completed the third consecutive week of increase thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon interest rate cuts. Some experts predict that gold prices could re-establish an all-time record in the next few days. This week, world gold prices increased by about 1%, marking the third consecutive week of increase. On Thursday, gold prices reached their highest level in 6 weeks, thanks to motivation from a statistical report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) in June unexpectedly decreased. The data reinforces the view that the downward trend in US inflation has resumed and increases the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. A report from the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that PPI - a measure of wholesale inflation - increased 0.2% in June compared to the previous month, higher than the 0.1% increase forecast by economists. reported in a survey by Reuters news agency. In May, this index moved sideways compared to April. However, the above report basically did not change interest rate expectations. Data from CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders still bet on a more than 93% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates in September. The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust had its second consecutive week of net gold purchases this week, but the net purchase amount only reached 0.3 tons of gold. Data from the fund's website shows that at the end of Friday, this fund was holding approximately 835.1 tons of gold. The prospect of lower interest rates has put downward pressure on the USD this week, causing the Dollar Index to fall 0.34% on Friday, closing the week at 104.08 points - according to data from MarketWatch. For the whole week, this index decreased by 0.75%, bringing the total decrease in the past month to nearly 1.4%.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]After gold retested the $2,364 level it broke this technical level over the weekend and headed towards the original price point of $2,400. As sent to readers in recent publications, in terms of technical factors, gold price still has enough conditions for a bullish outlook with the main support being noticed at the EMA21 moving average line, The fact that gold prices are operating above the 21-day moving average makes this moving average a reliable support. On the other hand, in the short term the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also a notable support point; Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that the upward price momentum is still widespread. In the immediate future, the target level will still be noticed at the original price point of 2,400 USD, this is an important price point where the gold price can make short-term downward adjustments here. However, once the original price level of 2,400 USD is broken, gold will continue to move towards 2,449 USD in the short term. The bullish outlook for gold prices will be highlighted again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350 – 2,345USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD moves closer to 2,370 USD, pay attention to CPIIn the Asian market today, Wednesday (July 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term, gold prices approached the mark of 2,370 USD/ounce. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not give a clear signal that an interest rate cut was imminent. In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Powell said that inflation "remains above" the Fed's 2% target, but it has improved in recent months, so if the Fed wants to start cutting rates productivity, they need more good data to support its plausibility. Powell also noted that the labor market has cooled, adding that “we now have bilateral risks” and can no longer focus solely on inflation. But Powell did not offer the dovish stance some market participants were looking for. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. This hearing was Powell's last public address to Congress before the United States presidential election. Following Powell's congressional speech, the market's focus is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Thursday. Recent data shows US CPI data starting to decline from unexpectedly high levels at the beginning of the year. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 26.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 70.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3 .3%. When interest rates are low, the attractiveness of gold tends to increase and boost gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to try to recover from the downward correction earlier this week and is heading towards the price area that was the resistance target noted by readers in yesterday's publication, at the price point of 2,377. USD. The fact that gold maintains price activity above 2,364USD is considered a positive technical signal. Meanwhile, once gold breaks the resistance at 2,377 USD, it will have enough technical conditions to continue towards the subsequent target level at the original price point of 2,400 USD. In terms of the overall technical chart, gold has all the bullish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, the nearest support is noticed at the technical point of 2,364 USD and the support confluence of the price channel, Fibonacci retracement. 0.236% and EMA21 moving average. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, the near-term technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,377 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2384 - 2382 ⚰️SL: 2388 ⬆️TP1: 2377 ⬆️TP2: 2372 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD corrects and recovers, pay special attention to today's CPIOANDA:XAUUSD eased after a significant rise on Wednesday and started to recover in early Asian trading today (July 11). Powell's testimony hinted at expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, while investors await June U.S. inflation data to come. announced this weekend. A clearer picture of the path of US interest rates after the release of CPI and PPI data. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said Wednesday local time that current monetary policy is restrained and the neutral interest rate has increased, at least in the short term. Usually when Powell talks about a higher neutral interest rate, it means a higher long-term policy rate. Powell said policy rates have been kept high for longer than initially expected because inflation and the labor market have been slow to respond. But Powell added that this is an issue the Fed will consider in its next policy review, which begins later this year, so it could have an impact on long-term interest rates going forward. Powell reiterated on Wednesday that more good data is needed to strengthen his stance on loose monetary policy. On inflation, Powell said Wednesday that he is not yet confident that inflation will fall sustainably toward the 2% target. However, there is no need to wait for inflation to drop to 2% to cut interest rates. Regarding the prospect of cutting interest rates, Mr. Powell said the Fed does not need to wait until inflation falls below 2% before cutting interest rates. Regarding interest rate cuts, no specific inflation value (standard) is noted. The Fed has made great progress in shrinking its balance sheet, but there is still a long way to go. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the market expects a 74.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. Market focus is now shifting to US CPI and PPI data released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recent data shows that US inflation has eased from unexpectedly high levels earlier this year. Pay special attention to CPI data that will be published at 7:30 p.m. Hanoi time today, Thursday (July 11). If inflation data continues to shrink, this will continue to be a fundamental factor in favor of gold prices. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, it will boost the Dollar and cause gold prices to face the possibility of a correction. significantly reduced. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold prices have adjusted downward after increasing significantly in yesterday's trading session, the general trend has not changed with factors supporting the possibility of price increases. In the immediate term, sustaining above $2,364 provides gold prices with the closest support and once it breaks $2,377 it will have room to continue bullish with a target then at the 2,400 raw price point. USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the bullish technical outlook will not change, on the other hand, the RSI pointing up without reaching the overbought level suggests room for further upside. The technical side remains on the daily chart. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350USD Resistance: 2,387 – 2,393 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD correction, nearest support level, main technical trendDuring the European market trading session on Monday (July 8), spot gold tended to adjust significantly intraday since the 6-week high reached last week. The current gold price is about 2,372 USD/ounce, down more than 18 USD during the day. Gold prices adjusted gently mainly due to the recovery in Bond Yields, with the 10-year US Bond Yield at 4,308 recovering 0.61% on the day. In addition, China's suspension of gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June put pressure on gold prices. Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings were unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June. In May, China's central bank decided to pause the increase in gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold buying spree that was seen as a support that had helped gold prices rise to record highs. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 73.8%, slightly reduced from the 74% probability after the release of US nonfarm payroll data on Thursday. Six weeks ago, according to FedWatch data provided by CME group. On the daily chart, as noted by readers in the previous issue, the current correction in gold prices has not yet reached the first support level at 2,364 USD and as long as gold remains above the level 2,364USD, the ability to adjust will still face many limitations. Instead, the support level at $2,364 is noted as a near-term support level that could push gold prices further towards the original price point of $2,400. In case the gold price continues to be sold below 2,364 USD, it has conditions to adjust further with a target level of about 2,340 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci level. However, in the overall technical picture, the technical trend of gold price is still more inclined towards the possibility of price increase with the following price points being noticed. Support: 2,364 – 2,360USD Resistance: 2,392 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2371
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers after correction, main causes, and trendsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered after falling sharply on Friday, once approaching $2,350 and is now reported at $2,367/oz, a gain equivalent to 0.36% on the day as of press time. Gold prices fell more than 1% in the US trading session yesterday (July 9), due to the rise of the US stock market and profit-taking activities of investors. In addition, China, the largest consumer of gold, did not buy gold; This is the second consecutive month this year that the Central Bank of China has not increased reserves. These are the main reasons for the expectation of a downward adjustment in gold prices sent to you in yesterday's and Sunday's editions. Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings remained unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June. In May this year, China's central bank decided to temporarily stop increasing gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold purchase period. When China's central bank released data on buying pauses in May. Last week's US nonfarm payrolls data showed a weak labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting interest rates. The market currently predicts a 77.1% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Investors this week will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony, a series of speeches by Fed officials and US CPI data released on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, Gold is recovering slightly after a downward correction yesterday and overall the correction in gold prices is still limited. During the term, the price area around $2,364 will still be the closest support, and even if gold moves below this level it will be limited by the confluence of EMA21 support and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. %, the price area is about 2,340 - 2,345USD. The relative strength index (RSI) points up but is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth. Technically and intraday the trend of gold prices leans more towards conditions for bullish expectations. Technical points will be noted again as follows. Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,377 – 2,392 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2373 - 2371 ⚰️SL: 2377 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2361 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2341 - 2343 ⚰️SL: 2337 ⬆️TP1: 2348 ⬆️TP2: 2353
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Get ready for big data, GOLD rises to retest 2,364USDOANDA:XAUUSD is mostly flat as the market awaits important news from US non-farm data to be released today (Friday). Fed rate cut expectations are based on this data. At the same time, affected by the US holiday, market trading volume decreased and gold prices found it difficult to maintain Wednesday's gains, fluctuating in a narrow range but still above 2,350 USD/ounce. Recent U.S. economic data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin easing policy sooner than expected, but policymakers remain cautious and want to see deflation progress. further development. Data released by the US showed initial jobless claims last week and ADP data showed private hiring activity fell in June compared to May. Additionally, US PMI data ISM service industry shows that business activities in the service industry have fallen into a decline zone. Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said deflation had resumed but emphasized that more progress was needed before interest rate cuts could be considered. He added: “Because the American economy is strong and the labor market is strong, we can take our time and get the job done.” At the same time, the US Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its June meeting showing that most participants believe that current policy is very restrictive but leaves the door open for interest rate hikes. Policymakers acknowledge that the economy is cooling and could respond to unexpected economic weakness. Today (Friday), the United States will release its nonfarm payrolls report for June, which is expected to show that the US labor market added 190,000 jobs, down from 272,000 in May. Of course, if NFP data declines, it will be beneficial for gold because it increases the possibility that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, making the US Dollar less attractive. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, unchanged from the previous figure, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.1 %. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 72% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, up from 63% on Tuesday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold was limited by the $2,364 level that readers noticed in the previous issue, it is now rising to test this important technical level. In the short term, once gold breaks $2,364 it will have room to continue rising with a target then noted at the original price point of $2,400. On the other hand, on the overall technical chart, gold still has all the technical factors for a possible price increase. With the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci point and main support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The relative strength index (RSI) is gradually moving up but is still very far from the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is still very wide. During the day, the technical trend leans heavily towards the possibility of an increase in the price of gold and it will be noticed by the following points. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392 ⚰️SL: 2398 ⬆️TP1: 2387 ⬆️TP2: 2382 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2341 ⬆️TP2: 2346
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD slight correction after reaching 2,364 USDOANDA:XAUUSD rallied sharply to test the $2,364 technical level as US economic data performed worse than expected, pressuring the dollar and driving gold prices higher. In addition, tensions in the Middle East showing signs of increasing also stimulate money flows into safe haven assets, and gold is the top choice. Economic data released by the United States was weaker than expected, increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business activity in the US services sector softened after reaching its highest level since August 2023. Along with a rise in the number of Americans filing Jobless claims and hiring by private companies were lower than expected, and employment data weakened, prompting markets to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Data released Wednesday showed that in the week ended June 29, adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States were 238,000, above market expectations of 234,000. In the week ending June 22, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits after adjustment in the US was 1.858 million people, higher than market expectations and setting a new high since November. 2021. The ADP jobs report showed private sector employment rose by 150,000 in June, falling for the third straight month and hitting a new low since January, below the 163,000 expected by economists. forecast. Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed officials at the June policy meeting had differing views on how long interest rates should remain high. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate meeting that ended June 12 showed that while "some" officials emphasized the need for patience, "some" participants especially noting that continued weakness in the job market could lead to higher unemployment rates. According to the minutes, officials reiterated that a rate cut would not be appropriate until more data reinforced their belief that inflation was on target. Despite recent signs that some progress has been made in fighting inflation, some policymakers maintain a willingness to raise interest rates if inflation remains high. Traders' attention turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report as US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. Geopolitical risks Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on July 3 saying at least 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon announced a missile attack in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon that day that killed a senior commander of the organization. The Israeli army issued a statement early on the morning of July 3 confirming that Nasser, a core figure of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after increasing in price to reach 2,364 USD, please note that in yesterday's publication, gold is temporarily limited by this level, which is also the target price increase that For gold to open a new bullish cycle it needs to break the technical level of 2,364 USD. Although the upward momentum of gold prices is limited, the overall picture still shows that gold prices have all the conditions to increase in price with major support except the EMA21 moving average and the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. . As long as gold maintains its price performance above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook in the short term, and once it breaks the $2,364 technical point, gold has the potential to resume its uptrend at the target level. Initial spending is about 2,400 USD. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392 ⚰️SL: 2398 ⬆️TP1: 2387 ⬆️TP2: 2382 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2341 ⬆️TP2: 2346
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD pays attention to the main focus of the marketOANDA:XAUUSD remained generally stable as markets received information from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and continued to look to US jobs data later this week for further signals on the state of the US economy. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that there were 8.14 million job openings on January 1. Last work of May. This is a significant increase compared to April's 7.9 million (adjusted to 8.05 million) and exceeds the market forecast of 7.9 million. Key points from Powell's speech included his mention that wage growth is falling back to more sustainable levels, a sign that the labor market is cooling. Additionally, he added that inflation could return to 2% by the end of next year or the year after that, suggesting inflation will be lower than expected. However, he reiterated that he hopes to see more progress before being confident enough to start cutting interest rates. "Services inflation has generally stabilized and wage growth is returning to more sustainable levels," he said. "Wage growth remains above equilibrium and the labor market is cooling. Inflation has will probably return at the end of next year or early next year to 2%. The focus now turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will be crucial in assessing whether the US labor market remains strong amid the highest interest rates in decades. century or not. However, data due today (Wednesday) will also have an impact on the markets, including the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as the purchasing managers index. services (PMI) from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trading quite stable around the EMA21 moving average, and the market still needs a fundamental impact large enough to break the current situation and give a clear trend cycle. Technically, although gold is currently above EMA21, its ability to increase in price is limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold will have enough conditions to increase technically if it breaks the price channel and stays above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level will be aimed at 2,364USD in the short term. On the other hand, once gold continues to be sold below EMA21 and below the technical point of 2,324 USD, it will tend to continue to decrease with a target level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD in the short term. The relative strength index is completely flat, showing hesitation and the market has not found a specific trend. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is showing that the main trend is sideways accumulation with the above conditions for an increase and decrease. In the accumulation phase of the market, short-term open positions are always given priority. Technical positions will be given attention again as follows, Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2354 - 2352 ⚰️SL: 2358 ⬆️TP1: 2347 ⬆️TP2: 2342 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304 ⚰️SL: 2298 ⬆️TP1: 2309 ⬆️TP2: 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD comments at the beginning of the weekCable had a volatile week, driven almost entirely by top tier US data (US CPI, FOMC forecasts). The welcomed inflation data on Wednesday and subsequent rise in the pair was pulled back a few hours later with more hawkish revisions to the inflation outlook. Since then FX markets have prioritized the hawkish projections over the encouraging inflation data – the reverse of what has been seen in the US stock market as major indices achieved new all time highs. Continued progress in inflation and a more dovish BoE could extend the current move lower, towards 1.2585 and possibly even the 200 SMA.
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers, supported by data, key trends, PCE eyes onAs weak economic data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year, putting pressure on the USD, spot gold increased sharply by nearly 30 USD in yesterday's trading session. Today (Friday), investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to set the market trend. Some published data has supported the gold market. Essentially, wholesale inventories were lower than expected and the final GDP value fell significantly, dragging down the US Dollar index, thus boosting gold prices. • US quarterly GDP growth in the first quarter was revised slightly to 1.4%, but remained below the 3.4% in the last three months of 2023. GDP report also showed weakness in consumer spending. US consumption growth was adjusted down to 1.5% compared to the previous forecast of 2%. • Data released Thursday also showed initial unemployment claims fell to 233,000 in the week ended June 22. However, in the week ending June 15, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased by 18,000 to 1.839 million, the highest level since late 2021. US PCE inflation data is about to be published At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for May will be released, which could reveal the path of interest rates of the Fed. Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to be flat month-on-month in May, after rising 0.3% in April. The US PCE price index is expected to rise at a monthly pace. year-on-year was 2.6% in May, following a 2.7% increase in April. In terms of more important core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in May is expected to increase 0.1% monthly, following a 0.2% increase in April; increased at an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with a 2.8% increase the previous month. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers. The upcoming US core PCE price index for May will act as a short-term catalyst for market trends in general and the gold market in particular. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached levels around the 2,305 – 2,300 USD area it recovered and increased again but is currently still limited by the confluence area of ​​EMA21, the upper edge of the price channel and the technical 2,324USD. Considering the overall technical picture, although the gold price has recovered, it still does not have enough conditions to increase further. The condition for the gold price to continue to recover and increase is that it needs to move up. above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and then the target level can be noticed at 2,365USD in the short term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold does not show further price increases, but instead technical conditions are still supporting a downtrend from the price channel. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2343 - 2341 ⚰️SL: 2347 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2331 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304 ⚰️SL: 2298 ⬆️TP1: 2309 ⬆️TP2: 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD will continue to accumulate in the coming sessionsWorld gold prices decreased significantly in the trading session on Friday (June 28), after US statistics showed that inflation continued to deescalate and was in line with forecasts, reinforcing the possibility that the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in September. Many experts predict that gold prices will continue to accumulate in the coming sessions, with the possibility of breaking out of the 2,300-2,350 USD/oz range in the short term. short. Although the US Dollar index (DXY) remained stable during the day, gold prices still increased. US macro data released yesterday and tensions in the Middle East are supporting gold prices. On the evening of June 27 local time, air defense sirens sounded across a large area in northern Israel. The Israeli army said the northern region of the country was attacked by about 35 rockets from Lebanon. Israel's air defense system blocked most of the missiles. The Israeli army said the attack caused no casualties among local people. However, the attack caused fires in two northern areas. Since the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Palestinians and Israelis on October 7 last year, Hezbollah in Lebanon has occasionally carried out attacks in northern Israel, and the Israeli military has retaliated with airstrikes. bombardment and shelling of targets in southern Lebanon. A large number of residents in the northern border area have been evacuated. The conflict continued to escalate this month. On June 6, the Israeli Northern Command announced that it had completed the deployment of forces to conduct a large-scale attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On June 11, Lebanese Hezbollah commander Talib Abdullah was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Hezbollah then launched a large-scale rocket attack on Israel. Follow the US elections After the first televised debate of the US presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's approval rating significantly surpassed that of incumbent President Biden. During the debate, Biden often looked away when Trump spoke and Biden's statements were also quite weak. Some information said Biden had a cold.😁 The impact of the US presidential debate on the market has so far been limited. Although the US dollar's rise is in line with Trump's comments that he could increase trade tensions and concerns about fiscal extravagance. However, the increase in USD price seems to be more related to economic factors announced in US macro data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 01 - July 05]OANDA:XAUUSD today closed weekly at 2,326 USD/ounce. It had previously hit a high of $2,339 when the US PCE inflation data was released. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.01% at $2,336/ounce, with a cumulative gain of 12.8% in the first half of the year. Gold is currently quite neutral fundamentally, but looking at the overall picture, inflation will not disappear and geopolitical tensions will not subside, which will be important positive supports for gold prices. Previously, the core US personal consumption expenditure index showed moderate rising inflationary pressures, in line with expectations. Over the past 12 months, the Fed's inflation index has increased 2.6%, the lowest annual increase in more than three years. Although inflation has yet to reach the Fed's 2% target, it may be close enough to signal a rate cut in September. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders now see about a 64.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is also a member of the 2024 FOMC, said the latest inflation figures were “good news that policy is working.” It's also worth noting that data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week to June 25, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts decreased by 4,823 lots. Data outlook next week Independence Day will give next week's economic data a break. On Monday, markets will get the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, followed by preliminary Eurozone CPI data and JOLTS job hiring data on Tuesday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at the central bank meeting in Portugal. Next Wednesday, the market will focus on the ADP jobs report, weekly unemployment benefits data and the ISM services purchasing managers index, as well as the June FOMC meeting minutes. After the July 4 holiday, US traders will receive the June nonfarm payrolls report on Friday Notable economic data Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday: Eurozone CPI estimates, JOLTS vacancies, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at Bank of Portugal meeting Wednesday: ADP employment data, weekly jobless claims, ISM services PMI; FOMC June meeting minutes; Friday: US nonfarm payrolls report Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of ​​the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD. Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart. In the near term, if gold continues to be sold below 2,324 USD it will provide conditions for further declines with the target level then being around 2,305 – 2,300 USD. In case the $2,300 raw price breaks below, a new bearish cycle could be opened with a short-term target of $2,286 and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as gold cannot move above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, in terms of overall technicality, the gold price technical chart is not inclined to an upward trend. The technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be selling around 2360 and buying around 2268.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD moves sideways awaiting significant fundamental impactOANDA:XAUUSD closed Monday's session higher but still limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Currently price activity hovers around the EMA21 level as investors turn their attention to US jobs data due out later this week, which could provide further clues about a rate cut of the Federal Reserve. U.S. manufacturing activity fell for a third straight month in June as demand for goods weakened and a gauge of factory input prices fell to a six-month low, suggesting inflation may continue to ease. This week, the market will focus on today's (Tuesday) speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the minutes of the central bank's latest policy meeting on Wednesday and non-payroll data. US agriculture on Friday. US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. The market currently expects a 64% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and make gold more attractive. should be more attractive than holding US Dollar. OANDA:XAUUSD is keeping price activity around the EMA21 level, however, staying above the EMA21 level is a good sign for gold prices as the current $2,324 technical point is also acting as another support. compatible with EMA21. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still moving sideways without a clear trend. If the RSI bends and points up, it will be a signal that there is still a lot of room for price growth. The 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is also currently the resistance that limits the upside potential of gold prices. Once gold breaks this Fibonacci level, which can be confirmed by the $2,345 level, it has all the technical elements. needed for a new bullish cycle with a short-term target around 2,364USD. With current largely sideways price activity, gold will need significant impact from fundamentals to create technical direction. During the day, the trend of gold price is still moving sideways around the EMA21 level, and the price points will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,338 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has dropped to its lowest level in 2 weeksOANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest in more than two weeks, weighed down by strength in the US dollar and rising bond yields, while traders looked ahead to US inflation data due later in the week. This According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 89.7% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 37.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5 .5%. The focus this week will be on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure that could provide guidance on interest rates. If the result is lower than expectations, the Fed is likely to An early federal interest rate cut will increase and support gold prices. The opposite is true if inflation increases. Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD outlook As sent to readers in yesterday morning's edition, gold currently has bearish conditions after the recovery momentum was defeated. Gold has fallen rapidly again and the price has dropped below the price point of 2,300 USD. With current price activity, gold is still leaning towards price possibilities with the main pressure from EMA21 and the current main trend being noticed at the trendline. As long as the rallies fail to take gold prices above the $2,340 technical level, price increases should only be considered short-term corrections and not an uptrend. In the short term, with current price activity, gold is likely to continue to test the $2,286 price level rather than the $2,282 price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. The intraday trend of gold price is a downtrend and is noted as follows. Support: 2,286 – 2,273USD Resistance: 2,300 – 2,306 – 2,324USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2322 - 2320 ⚰️SL: 2326 ⬆️TP1: 2315 ⬆️TP2: 2310 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2269 - 2271 ⚰️SL: 2265 ⬆️TP1: 2276 ⬆️TP2: 2281
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]On Friday (June 21), when data released by S&P Global showed that US PMI data for June were generally better than expected, the US Dollar strengthened and spot gold plummeted more than 38 USD. Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $2,321.64/ounce; Spot gold prices decreased 0.47% this week, with a total trading range between 2,368.74 and 2,306.68 USD. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.45% at $2,373.80/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed down 4.03 U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The US Dollar Index (Dxy), closed up 0.16% at 105.83 on Friday. • Data released on Friday showed the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI U.S. prelim was 51.7, the forecast was 51 and the previous was 51.3. • The initial value of services PMI is 55.1, the expected value is 53.7 and the previous value is 54.8. • The initial comprehensive PMI value is 54.6, the expected value is 53.5 and the previous value is 54.5. This is the highest level since April 2022, following May's 54.5. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.9% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, little changed from late Thursday. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and this supports gold prices. Market uncertainty remains extremely high as markets try to guess the Fed's next move. About the Fed this past week Several Fed officials spoke during the past trading week, with many emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week. • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target, but estimated it could take 1 - 2 years. • Chicago Fed President Goolsby said Thursday that policymakers will be able to cut interest rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. In an interview Thursday, Goolsby talked about the May consumer prices report, which showed core inflation fell for the second straight month. • Fed Governor Coogler said Tuesday that it could be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates "later this year" if economic conditions develop as she expects. • St. Fed President Louis Mussallem said in his first major policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of data to support an interest rate cut. • New York Fed President Williams and Fed President Richmond Barkin were reluctant to provide a specific time frame for interest rate cuts, but all officials emphasized the important role of economic data in the process. policy promotion process. • Philadelphia Fed President Harker said Monday that based on his current forecast, he thinks a rate cut this year is appropriate. This underscores the signal that interest rates may remain high. • Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed will wait until December before cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve policymakers have kept borrowing costs at their highest level in nearly a year and appear to be in no hurry to lower them. Just last week, Fed officials expected just one rate cut in 2024, down from three forecast in March. Notable economic data and events next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: US new home sales index Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold failed to break the channel edge and the key technical point highlighted by readers in Friday's edition, it came under strong selling pressure. Selling pressure to bring gold prices back into position is also very important for the uptrend from the price channel in the short term, the closing level is also around the technical point of 2,324 USD. In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue falling with the target level possibly aiming at the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term, however this will be more positive when the price channel is broken below. Returning to the price channel and falling below the 21-day moving average (EMA21) is a negative sign for gold prices from a technical perspective. The price channel noticed is a downtrend. The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above. In the near term, the technical outlook is temporarily inclined to the possibility of price decline with main pressure from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,320 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌Short-term trading plan for next week: on the H1 chart, we will initially watch to sell around the 2342 mark, and buy if the price drops to around the 2260 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls below 2,330 USD, capital flows into China Gold ETFOANDA:XAUUSD falling rapidly again after recovering in yesterday's trading session, the current drop is around 9$ on the day to below 2,330$ and reported at the time of publication to be finished at 2,325$ or down 0.40%. . Investors are looking forward to US inflation data later this week, which could influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The data focus this week is on Friday's US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the labor market is "about" to reach an inflection point and that further weakness will mean a rise in unemployment. Daly's comments showed she was leaning towards a dovish stance, adding: "Inflation is not the only risk we face right now." Four other Fed officials are being closely watched, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, who are expected to speak this week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 67.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September. According to Bank of America, China Gold ETF continued to see capital inflows, increasing by 253 million USD. This is the 6th consecutive month of capital inflow. China's gold ETF purchases have been driven by stock market weakness, a depreciating local currency and falling bond yields, with holdings now at a record high. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), market forces still appear to provide a solid foundation as about 20 central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold holdings next year. Bank of America said China's physical market was slightly weaker but remained generally supportive, with jewelry sales continuing to hover near seasonal highs. Likewise, China's domestic market prices are still higher than international prices. Another notable piece of data is that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that as of the week of June 18, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased by 11,984 lots to 189,533 lot. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is declining after recovering and approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the closest technical resistance on the daily gold price chart. . Although gold has declined, the price decline has not brought price activity below the price channel, the short-term trend price channel, this means gold still has support factors from the lower edge of the price channel and the technical level of 2,324 USD. comments to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold still has bullish conditions, the lower edge of the price channel produced a significant recovery yesterday and now if it breaks below gold could face further sell-off. same target around 2,305 – 2,300USD, so open long positions should be protected after the price channel breaks below. During the day, gold still has a technical upside prospect with notable positions being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1