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GOLD recovered slightly with main bearish outlookWhen the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to its highest level this year, which has reduced the investment appeal of OANDA:XAUUSD fell again and gold prices plummeted to a 2-month low. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently suggested that there may not be any interest rate cuts in December. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, the US producer price index (PPI) in October increased 2.4% year-on-year, higher than the increase of 2.0%. 3% expected and higher than the 1.9% increase in September. Core PPI, which typically influences the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above expectations of 3%. Additionally, Thursday's data also showed the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since May last week, suggesting labor demand remains solid after the storms. and recent strikes. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 in the week ended November 9, compared with a median forecast of 220,000. Gold prices have fallen for five consecutive days and this week's drop could exceed 4%, which is expected to be the biggest weekly drop since June 2021. Powell's hawkish comments signal a "major shift" in the Fed's outlook for rate cuts Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates due to the strength of the US economy and that the central bank will "watch carefully" to ensure that certain measures of inflation remain at acceptable levels. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to rush to cut interest rates,” Powell said in a speech to business leaders in Dallas. The strength of the economy we are seeing now allows us to make prudent decisions.” In an upbeat assessment of the current situation, Powell said domestic economic growth in the US is “so far better than in other major economies around the world”. Powell reiterated that the Fed's path to adjusting interest rates will depend on upcoming data and developments in the economic outlook. On Asian markets on Friday (November 15), spot gold maintained a recovery trend during the day and gold prices are currently at around 2,570 USD/ounce. Today, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for October, which is expected to cause significant volatility in the gold market over the weekend. Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% monthly in October, after rising 0.4% in September. US retail sales data is known as "big data" because it typically has a larger impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus continuing to pressure gold. On the other hand, the weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate gold prices to recover further after the recent long series of declines. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered without reaching the horizontal support level of 2,528 USD. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold has recovered to return to above 2,548 USD, in general its short-term trend is still inclined to the downside with the price channel as the short-term trend. In addition, the technical recovery prospect is also encountering some resistance from the lower edge of the price channel, the resistance level of 2,588 USD and the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached support from the selling area, so there may still be room for a decline in momentum ahead. The main trend of gold in the short and medium term is still downtrend, the recoveries are only considered short-term adjustments and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,550 – 2,548USD Resistance: 2,581 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2619⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2625 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2609 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2531
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell despite CPI supporting interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD became a "victim" of Trump and the price plummeted to 2,564 USD/oz. CNN and NBC confirmed that Donald Trump has won three consecutive victories and the Republican Party maintains a slim majority in the US House of Representatives. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was in line with expectations and the Fed's December interest rate cut was priced in, boosting crypto buying. What any trader needs to do to survive in the "Trump Environment" is to follow "Trump" X because each of his status lines will directly impact the financial market. News Bloomberg reports that Republicans maintain a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, giving Trump and his party unified control of elected government agencies and limiting potential restrictions on with the power of the incoming president. CNN and NBC News reported Wednesday that the Republican victory significantly dampened Democrats' hopes of curbing Trump's influence in next year's bitter showdown over trillions of dollars in government spending. Tax provisions are about to expire. Trump wants to extend tax cuts approved during his first term and add new measures he promised during the campaign. US CPI is in line with market expectations, the Fed is certain to cut interest rates in December The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US seasonally adjusted annual CPI rate in October was 2.6%, marking a recovery in inflation from September, when the CPI increased 2.4%. % compared to the same period last year. Core inflation, excluding food and energy items, increased 3.3% year-on-year, which may better reflect the underlying inflation trend. Both results were in line with market expectations, and this was the first inflation report since the US election. Although inflation tends to cool down, US President-elect Trump took office during a sensitive period for the US economy, causing gold to remain suppressed. The Fed's goal is to lower interest rates to ensure the economy continues to grow healthily without causing inflation. Federal Reserve members are tempering market expectations for an aggressive central bank easing cycle, but the market remains fairly confident of another 25 basis point rate cut in December. . Traders are currently pricing in around an 83% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in December, compared with 60% ahead of the US inflation data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has broken below the price channel to facilitate a new bearish cycle with a near-term target around $2,548 rather than the $2,528 level noted by readers in the previous issue. . Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index continues to point down with a steep slope without reaching the oversold area, showing that the bearish outlook is still ahead and the recovery phase may not yet occur. Gold had had 4 consecutive days of strong declines before that. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,548 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,580 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2642⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2648 →Take Profit 1 2637 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2632 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2548⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2542 →Take Profit 1 2553 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2558
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
Money flows out of GOLD ETFs, market focusAs the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the release of economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, these comments could provide insight into the direction of interest rates under the Trump administration. On Tuesday (November 12), OANDA:XAUUSD dropped to the lowest level in nearly 2 months. By the time this article was completed, gold was trading around 2,611 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 0.50% on the day. Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to a 4-month high, making gold more expensive. The US Dollar is expected to benefit from a number of policies of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, which could keep US interest rates relatively high for a long time, which will be an unfavorable environment for gold. not profitable. Wall Street's major indexes hit new closing highs on Monday, boosted by stocks poised to benefit from Trump's potential fiscal policies. Bitcoin also extended its record rally, while short-term US Treasury yields rose to a 3-1/2-month high. Market focus has now shifted to October consumer price index data released on Wednesday, producer price index and weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday and payroll data. Retail sales numbers are released on Friday. Several other central bank governors are expected to speak this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Gold ETFs experience large outflows The World Gold Council said in its latest report that the US election results have influenced gold's impressive gains since the beginning of the year. Reasons include continued strength in bond yields and the US dollar, risk-on sentiment in the stock market, a push for cryptocurrencies and easing geopolitical tensions. The World Gold Council said global gold ETFs are expected to fall by $809 million (12 tons) in the first week of November, with most of the outflows from North America. In addition, COMEX's net inventory also decreased by 74 tons, down 8% compared to the previous week. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw its biggest weekly outflow in more than two years last week following Trump's decisive victory in The election prompted traders to take profits. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, surpassed $1 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since July 2022. Price Spot gold decreased by 1.9% over the same period. The ETF's total gold holdings decreased by 0.4%, down for the second consecutive week. In times of political and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold. Last month, they sought the safety of gold amid growing expectations that the US presidential election would be a hotly contested one. But with Trump winning key battleground states and Republicans taking control of the Senate, the results clearly prompted investors to exit their positions to take profits. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered from the key support level highlighted by readers in yesterday's edition at $2,588 and returned to the price channel. The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level gives it scope for a recovery but the current position will remain unchanged with all conditions tilting towards a bearish outlook. Gold's recovery may continue with a short-term target of around 2,640 USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below $2,588 and the target is then around $2,548 in the short term, more than $2,528. As long as gold remains in the price channel below EMA21, the main trend will still favor the bearish outlook, rallies should be considered short-term corrections. During the day, the outlook for a recovery with a main bearish bias will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 2,600 – 2,588USD Resistance: 2,627 – 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2559 - 2561⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2566 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2571
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools downOn the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete. OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election. News point The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election. On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats. In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices. Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations. Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon. Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border. About monetary policy The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory. Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside. The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead. On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548. During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
WTI crude oil has bearish conditions prevailingTVC:USOIL continued to decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (November 11), trading around 70.03 USD/barrel. As the storm's impact on the supply side waned, sentiment in favor of rising oil prices faded. At the same time, the US Dollar index is strong and rising, putting pressure on WTI crude oil and global demand is expected to show no signs of recovery. Under many resonances, the positive outlook for WTI crude oil is still quite dim. It is currently near the integer mark of $70. If it falls below again, a return to the previous low is likely. Essentially, continue to pay attention to changes in inventory data, as well as whether the US Dollar Index (Dxy) continues to exert strong pressure on oil prices. On the daily chart, after crude oil TVC:USOIL Under pressure from the area around 72.39USD, readers should note that in previous publications, the recovery momentum has weakened. Meanwhile, moving below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the RSI pointing down from the 50 area will be quite good signals for bearish expectations. The first target level for bearish expectations is $68.77 in the short term, ahead of $68.11 and $66.44. Currently, WTI crude oil has technical conditions that are completely inclined to the downward trend with the price channel being the long-term trend. During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 70 – 68.77 – 68.11USD Resistance: 70.56 – 72.39USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery. Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold. Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels. In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months. Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0. Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021. These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States. Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential. According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October. China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August. About this week's economic calendar Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions. Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead. Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2635 →Take Profit 1 2646 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2651
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz. The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors. Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply. Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED. This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday. 📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
FOMC and Powell support GOLD, bearish outlook still prevailsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading rose nearly 2% yesterday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as market predicted, causing the US Dollar to plunge and giving gold a boost. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, while policymakers noted a "broad deterioration" in the job market. Officials voted unanimously to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Trump's presidential election victory will not directly affect monetary policy. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have put pressure on the US dollar and bond yields, while boosting the investment appeal of non-yielding gold. FOMC content In their monetary policy statement, officials acknowledged the economy is growing steadily despite slowing labor market conditions. They admitted inflation was close to the Fed's 2% target but still remained slightly high. Fed policymakers also noted that the risks to achieving their dual mandates were “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said: "The Committee believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are balanced and that there is uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee concerned about the risk of achieving his dual mandate." While policymakers noted “progress” in achieving the inflation target, they neglected to mention “becoming more confident that inflation can move steadily toward 2 percent.” sustainable”. “Labour market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low,” the Fed statement said. Powell said the election results would not affect decision-making in the short term and that there was flexibility in future policy direction. At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on the future direction of interest rates, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. He acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains restrained as officials aim to return interest rates to neutral levels. Regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, Powell said if the labor market weakens or slows as it approaches neutrality, the Fed could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, he clarified that no final decision has been made yet. Powell also said that in the short term, the presidential election results will not directly affect monetary policy. General assessment The Fed's 25 basis point cut boosted gold prices, on the other hand, Powell made very clear statements about the possibility and prospect of cutting interest rates and this is not beneficial for the US Dollar. A very basic knowledge is that the US Dollar is controlled by the Fed and not under the power of the US President. Therefore, even in the event that Trump is elected and boosts the US Dollar, it will still be restrained by the policy of cutting interest rates. Only if Trump can completely eliminate the Fed will the US Dollar have nothing to show for it. prevent. Of course, this is without precedent, nor has any President been able to do this. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has recovered strongly from the 0.618% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the channel, it is still in a downtrend with the price channel as the short-term trend. On the other hand, gold's upward momentum has also been limited by the EMA21 level, and it still has enough bearish conditions when the Relative Strength Index is also showing signs of folding down from the 50 level area. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the potential to fall a bit further with a short-term target of around 2,684 USD rather than 2,668 USD. However, in case gold moves above the EMA21 level it will tend to increase further to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Therefore, for open selling positions should be protected above EMA21 quite "strictly." During the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,684 – 2,668USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2740 →Take Profit 1 2729 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2724 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2672 →Take Profit 1 2683 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2688
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD established a falling structure after a sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable after yesterday's plunge. The current gold price is about 2,660 USD/ounce. Previously on Wednesday (November 6), after Trump was elected President of the United States, investors rushed to buy US Dollar, OANDA:XAUUSD plummeted to its lowest level in 3 weeks. As sent to readers in many articles about the election of Trump, a shock decline in gold is inevitable because Trump's "steering wheel" will support the Dollar from general economic policies. Trump's victory will boost the dollar as he is expected to propose new tariffs that could cause a spike in inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle. Fed decision upcoming After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time. The US economic calendar today (Thursday) will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Trump and the Fed Trump's economic policy proposes imposing taxes, increasing the fiscal deficit, and reducing taxes. His economic advice conflicts with the Fed's anti-inflation policy. Therefore, the Fed will be forced to take a very cautious approach when loosening monetary policy. The risk of rising inflation after Trump introduced new taxes could slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is very important because Trump and the Fed are becoming opposing, it is likely that Trump will destroy all previous efforts of the Fed to curb inflation. For more than 70 years, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent government agency in the United States, but this tradition may soon be overturned. After declaring victory on Wednesday (November 6), Donald Trump is preparing to talk about "interest rates" after taking office in January 2025, insisting his intuition is better than the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Powell. For more than 70 years, the US central bank has operated as an independent government agency. When officials meet to decide interest rates, they will not need to consult with the president and other elected officials. That's because, as the former Fed chairman famously said, “The job of the central bank is to get rid of the drinking bowl just as the party is getting started.” In other words, they have to make unpopular decisions that ultimately seek to bring long-term benefits to the economy. However, once President-elect Trump returns to the White House, the independence the Fed has maintained for many years could be compromised. Trump's statement was posted on CNN: “I think the president should at least have a say. I feel very strongly,” Trump said about the Fed's interest rate decision at a press conference in August. Trump added: “I make a lot of money, I'm very successful and I think in many situations I have better abilities than the people at the Fed or the president.” Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After yesterday's strong price drop, gold has all the technical conditions to decrease in price through the price channel. The fact that gold was sold below the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21) caused the bullish price structure to be completely broken. Currently, gold is recovering slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and once this level is further broken below, gold tends to continue to decline with a subsequent target level of around 2,600 USD around the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement area. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index continues to point downward after breaking the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for gold as the RSI's next target is 25. Showing that the downward momentum remains quite wide in the front. In the near future, technically, gold has the potential to decrease in price with the price channel being the short-term trend. As long as gold remains in the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the bearish outlook will still be prioritized, and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,640 – 2,645USD Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684 – 2,697USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2706⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2711 →Take Profit 1 2701 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2633 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
Ready for the US election, GOLD still fluctuates quite modestlyOANDA:XAUUSD volatile without a clear trend, as uncertainty over the US election has fueled market expectations of a controversial outcome and possible political tensions, while investors also Close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve this weekend during their monetary policy meeting. The US presidential election takes place on Tuesday, with polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump in a tight race for the White House. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed public fears that the US could repeat the riots that followed Trump's 2020 election loss, when hundreds of people stormed the country after he claimed that his defeat was due to fraud in Congress. If Trump wins, I think gold will fall then rise quickly again because a Trump win will benefit the Dollar and a stronger Dollar means gold will be under direct correlation pressure. However, we will not forget that under Trump, the tariff war and his policies created a long period known as the “Trade War”, which has caused gold prices to increase ever since. up to now. Another focus this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and often performs well when interest rates are low. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has reached the support level most recently noticed by readers in the previous issue at the horizontal support level of 2,725 USD. There has been a slight recovery as of the time this article was completed, but the level of recovery is not significant as the operating amplitude is still very slow while the downward RSI has not been reached yet. level 50, level 50 is considered a support or resistance point depending on the RSI's movement conditions. In the short term, if gold moves above 2,745 USD, the resistance point you noticed in the previous publication, it will have the conditions to continue to increase further with a target of around 2,768 USD in the short term. , more than the 2,786USD price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. In a more negative case, gold breaks below 2,725 USD, it is likely to decline further with a target of 2,709 USD in the short term more than the original price of 2,700 USD which is also the price point of the 21-day moving average EMA21. Therefore, the short-term long-term protection level should be set behind the level of 2,725 USD, in the longer-term case the long-term open position protection level should be set behind the original price level of 2,700 USD. In the immediate future, gold still has an upward trend in the medium and long term with support for the above mentioned price increase, and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2781 →Take Profit 1 2770 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2765 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2699 →Take Profit 1 2710 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2715
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is waiting for more information from the electionOANDA:XAUUSD Still waiting for more information from the US Presidential election for a medium-term trend, investors need to prepare for political tensions after polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both tied. each other on scores. The presidential election still has a very high possibility of a controversial result, and remember that in the 2020s when Trump lost the race for the White House, there were many riots in the US. protests led to mild political tensions. With the tight race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris for control of the U.S. Congress at stake, in the event the result is unclear or controversial, this could aggravate further political instability. Trump has repeatedly said that any defeat can only come from widespread fraud, echoing his claims in 2020. If the margins in key states are as close as expected, there is It may take several days to know the final winner. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps on Thursday, following a sharp cut in September, while adding to US interest rate cuts this year. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and tends to perform strongly when interest rates are low. This has helped gold gain nearly 33% this year so far. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's technical structure has not changed much. For more than 3 trading sessions, it has mainly moved sideways, because there has been no sudden impact from the fundamental factors. Support at $2,725 helped gold recover yesterday but the RSI is still pointing down without reaching the nearest support level at 50. This shows that gold can still A little more bearish, and once the $2,725 support level is broken below it will be open to a little more downside with a target then around $2,709 – $2,700. However, on the daily chart overall, gold still has conditions to increase with the main long-term price channel supporting the uptrend and the same with the medium-term price channel. The most notable support is the EMA21 level which is also keeping gold above it. During the day, gold's main technical outlook is bullish with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2781 →Take Profit 1 2770 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2765 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2699 →Take Profit 1 2710 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2715
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GBPUSD technical bearish, eye on BoE MPCMarket expectations for the November 7 meeting The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this Thursday, with 90% of market participants expecting interest rates to be cut by 25 basis points from 5% to 4, 75%. This follows the central bank's first interest rate cut of 2024, which took place at the meeting ending on July 31, 2024. At this meeting, the MPC voted with a majority to reduce the Interest Rate Bank interest rate 0.25%, down to 5%. Key economic indicators influence decisions Recent data paint a complicated picture for BoE decision-makers. The current inflation index of 1.7% is lower than the bank's 2% target, so is no longer an immediate concern for the BoE. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate (for those aged 16 and over) is estimated to be 4.0% in June to August 2024 compared to 4.1% before there. From June to August 2024, average annual employee regular earnings growth (excluding bonuses) is 4.9% and the region's average annual regular earnings growth public sector was 5.2%, down 5.7% compared to the same period three months ago; for the private sector it is 4.8%. Global monetary policy context The US Federal Reserve (Fed) also meets this Thursday, with markets pricing a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50%-4.75% with a probability of nearly 100%. This creates an interesting context for the BoE's decision as global central banks are increasingly shifting their focus from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:GBPUSD On the daily chart, GPB/USD recovered from the lower edge of the price channel, however, the recovery was limited as the main trend of GBP/USD up to now is still a downtrend noticed by the channel. price. GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.30042 horizontal resistance level and the EMA21 moving average. Even if GBP/USD manages to move above 1.30042, it still doesn't have much solid bullish conditions as there are other resistance levels above from 1.30448 and the confluence of the upper channel edge with the 0.382% Fibonacci. As long as GBP/USD remains below Ema21 and within the price channel it remains technically bearish, while the Relative Strength Index is also close to 50, the 50 level being considered resistance when RSI is below this level. During the day, the technical outlook for GBP/USD is bearish with the highlights listed below. Support: 1.29073 – 1.28448 Resistance: 1.29842 – 1.30042 – 1.30448 – 1.30705
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has corrected down, facing a BIG event weekOANDA:XAUUSD rose quickly after weak non-farm payrolls data, then fell sharply from highs above $2,760/ounce and finally closed lower, closing at around $2,736/ounce. Gold prices quickly rose to 2,760 USD/ounce after the release of US non-farm payroll data, showing that only 12,000 new non-farm payrolls were added in October, much lower than the 113,000 expected. expected and much lower than in September. However, gold prices have since dropped and lost all of their price gains during Friday's trading day. Hit by hurricanes and strikes by aerospace factory workers, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 in October, the smallest increase since December 2020. Other data from the nonfarm report showed the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, in line with expectations, and the increase in average hourly wages last month increased to 4.0% compared to compared to the same period last year, in line with expectations and higher than the 3.9% revision in September. Hourly earnings increased 0.4% month over month, above the forecast 0.3% and the revised 0.3%. The average number of working hours also increased to 34.3 hours, higher than expectations of 34.2 hours, but still equal to the previously adjusted increase. As noted by readers in the short comments, it is very possible that gold's downward adjustment period is not over yet as Friday's economic data is considered very positive for gold. If it is "theoretically" correct, gold should increase sharply as soon as the data is released, but there are possibilities that the market has digested all the previous data or the data will react after more fundamental impacts. another version. Therefore, I needed to warn about this phenomenon with short comments! Tensions in the Middle East have helped limit gold's decline The BBC reported that Hezbollah launched a rocket attack in northern Israel, killing seven people. It was the worst attack in months and dashed hopes of a ceasefire in the war in the Middle East. There are too many risks ahead of the US election, as well as rumors about Iran retaliating against Israel. Polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in next Tuesday's US presidential election. Gold is a traditional hedge against economic and political instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. It must be noted once again that, although gold and the Dollar have been increasing together recently, it does not mean that this correlation has been lost. Gold and the US Dollar have a negative correlation and if Trump is elected, the US Dollar will continue to get stronger because of Trump's policy trends (This has been sent to readers in many publications), the US Dollar will be stronger. This means that gold will be subject to correlation pressure. This week will be a trading week with many "huge" events with the Presidential election and the US Congress along with the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). It is expected to have a STRONG and DEEP impact on the gold market trend. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision Tuesday: ISM Services PMI, US Presidential and Congressional elections Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, US weekly jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy decision Friday: University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has a 2-day bearish correction with the short-term uptrend temporarily lost as price activity falls below the price channel. However, this is not a negative thing because the nearest support at 2,725 USD still keeps gold above it. The relative strength index is pointing down from the oversold area but has not yet reached the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the nearest support point in terms of momentum. Although gold has adjusted down, in the overall picture it still has an uptrend with long-term and medium-term price channels and important support at the EMA21 level. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,725 – 2,710 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2759 - 2757⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2763 →Take Profit 1 2752 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2747 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2710⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2704 →Take Profit 1 2715 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2720
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 04 - Nov 08]This week, after rising to 2,790 USD/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October. All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high. However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings. In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again. Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election. 📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD prices fall under the weight of yields and exchange ratesWorld gold prices fell in the trading session on Friday (November 1) under pressure from rising US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. However, the need to hedge risks ahead of the US presidential election next week helps limit the decline in gold prices. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 7.9 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29%, to 2,736.5 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. World gold prices decreased by 0.44% this week. On Thursday, spot gold prices set an all-time record at more than 2,790 USD/oz. The main source of downward pressure on gold prices this week is the increasing trend of US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased nearly 10 basis points on Friday, reaching 4.382%, the highest in the past 4 months - according to data from CNBC news agency. Yields increased due to falling bond prices as investors strongly sold US Treasury bonds ahead of the US presidential election next Tuesday. The reason leading to investors selling US debt is concerns about the increasing federal budget deficit whether Mr. Donald Trump or Ms. Kamala Harris are elected. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.33%, closing Friday's session at 104.32 points - according to data from MarketWatch. This week, the index increased by 0.06%, bringing the total increase in the past month to 1.75%. The USD is increasing in value because this currency is also promoting its role as a safe investment channel in the context of the approaching US election.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has conditions to increase with expectations of recoveryOn Thursday (October 31), some traders chose to take profits, causing gold prices to fall again, falling 2% and reaching a low of 2,731 USD/oz. As of the time of writing, Friday, November 1, gold has recovered to 2,746 USD/oz. Safe-haven demand ahead of the US presidential election has pushed gold prices up for the fourth consecutive month, and gold prices have increased about 4% in the past month. Previously, strong economic data released by the US increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cautiously cut interest rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, PCE data showed PCE inflation at 2.1% year-on-year, the lowest since early 2021 and slightly above the central bank's 2% target inflation rate. Before the taper, gold prices had risen by more than a third this year due to central bank buying and safe-haven demand due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Uncertainty about the US presidential election has also highlighted the value of gold as a safe-haven asset. In 2024, gold's gains are driven by economic uncertainty, central bank buying and geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East. Gold prices are now entering a historic year as expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and central bank demand will further support gold prices. Therefore, do not worry about price drops because in terms of fundamental long-term trends, gold is still strongly supported. During this trading day, traders need to pay attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and October Unemployment Rate data. Surveys predict 108,000 new jobs will be added, compared with 254,000 last month. The Nonfarm payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding agriculture. Job creation is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. Figures that are much higher than expected or equal to the previous period will be considered a positive signal for the USD and continue to add pressure to the gold downtrend. Meanwhile, data at or below is expected to support gold's return to the bullish cycle and the continuation of its long-term uptrend, ending the ongoing bearish correction. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, yesterday's correction caused gold to swing below the short-term rising price channel noted by the price channel on the chart. However, gold is also approaching a notable support level sent to readers in yesterday's edition at $2,725 when gold has the conditions for a correction. Although the price dropped significantly, the mid- and long-term trend is still bullish with specific conditions such as stable price activity in the price channel, stable activity above the EMA21 level. During the day, if gold can hold above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will have the potential to increase further with a short-term target of about 2,768USD, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the channel © and the 0.382% Fibonacci level. The expectation for the intraday trend is a recovery with a target level of around 2,768 USD, along with which notable price points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,745 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,768USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2765 - 2763⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2769 →Take Profit 1 2758 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2753 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2714 - 2716⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2710 →Take Profit 1 2721 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2726
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is close to the current level of 2,758 USDOn Tuesday (October 29) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price just touched 2,757.74 USD/ounce, setting a new intraday high and approaching the previous historical high. Traders prepare to release key economic data that will help set the tone for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Although tensions in the Middle East appear to have cooled, the Uncertainty about the US election still supports gold prices. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its two-day meeting starting November 6. Jobs and inflation data, as well as if the results of the US presidential election are contested, This could influence the Fed's decision. The market still expects policymakers to cut interest rates by 25bps at their November meeting. Lower borrowing costs are typically positive for gold, which does not yield a yield. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be about 98.4%. When the presidential election between Harris and Trump was still too close, gold had 3 consecutive weeks of increases despite the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the USD, which often puts pressure on precious metals, losing correlation. This describes both gold and USD as having separate supports. According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 as high prices suppressed jewelry demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has had 3 consecutive days of increase and is heading for the 4th day of price increase after adjusting and taking support from the short-term price channel and the 1% Fibonacci level. Currently, gold is close to the all-time peak set previously, once gold breaks the $2,758 level which is also the target increase since gold corrected down from this level, it will have enough room to continue. upside with the next target around 2,768USD in the short term, more than the 2,786USD price points of the Fibonacci 0.382% and 0.50%. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up with no signs of weakness as it approaches the overbought area, suggesting that bullish momentum remains solid, and as long as gold remains within the channel it will continue to trend. short-term upward trend. However, in case it is sold below 2,700 USD, it will open up expectations for a medium-term correction down cycle with the target at the area of ​​the EMA21 moving average. In the current market context, this scenario is quite unlikely. During the day, the bullish technical outlook for gold prices will be brought into focus again by the following notable levels. Support: 2,745 – 2,741 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,758 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2774 - 2772⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2778 →Take Profit 1 2767 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2762 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2730 - 2732⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2726 →Take Profit 1 2737 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2742
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce. Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand. Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market. It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year. Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year. Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week. Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant. Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel. In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels. Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price. During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below. Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2807 →Take Profit 1 2796 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2791 BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2752 →Take Profit 1 2763 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2768 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2756 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2761
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD new era levels, pay attention to today's GDP dataOn Asian markets on Wednesday (October 30), OANDA:XAUUSD delivery maintained its uptrend during the day and the gold price has now reached $2,780/ounce once again refreshing its all-time high and heading towards the target technical point noted by readers in yesterday's publication . OANDA:XAUUSD Continuing its upward momentum from the previous session, spot gold rose more than $32 on Tuesday due to uncertainty over the US presidential election and conflict in the Middle East, as well as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve, has enhanced the investment appeal of gold. During this trading day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. This is the most important economic data of the day and is expected to cause big fluctuations. on the financial market in general and gold in particular. Current market expectations suggest that the initial value of US real GDP in the third quarter is expected to grow at a quarterly rate of 3%. If GDP data is higher than market expectations, this could cause gold to correct short-term declines or react lower after a long streak of gains and support the USD. On the other hand, GDP data was much lower than expected, which should be supportive for gold and could see it continue to find new all-time highs. Ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting on November 6-7, traders will need to closely monitor more US economic data later this week including inflation and employment data. could provide direction for the Fed's 2025 outlook. Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Because gold does not generate interest, it tends to perform better in low interest rate environments and is considered a hedge against market volatility and risk. According to Bloomberg, the latest news coming from the situation in the Middle East, Israel launched an attack on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya on Tuesday, killing at least 93 Palestinians or more. missing. The US called it a "terrible incident". Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the latest report by Britain's Reuters on Wednesday said that the Gaza Ministry of Health announced that Israel had launched an attack on a residential building in the northern town of Beit Lahiya Gaza on Tuesday, leaving at least 93 Palestinians dead or missing, and 10 injured. Medical staff said at least 20 children were among the dead. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The technical chart continues to show that gold has the ability to increase in price comprehensively with the price channel currently trending in the short term. Gold has also had 4 consecutive days of gains after correcting from $2,758, it is heading for the 5th day with an active position that brings a lot of upside prospects. Currently, gold has broken above the price channel while maintaining price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension, which provides it with room to continue further gains with a subsequent target of around $2,786 Fibonacci price points. extended 0.50% attention to readers in yesterday's edition. As long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a short-term bullish outlook, along with that, once gold breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level it can continue to increase further towards the original price level of 2,800 USD, Fibonacci point 0.618% at 2,804USD. The relative strength index (RSI) has just broken above the overbought area, but has not yet peaked nor shown any signs of weakening, so in terms of momentum, prices can still be bullish with expectations of a correction around the area. The price point area was 2,800 USD when RSI peaked. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,774 – 2,768USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,800 – 2,804USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 →Take Profit 1 2794 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2789 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2740 - 2742⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2736 →Take Profit 1 2747 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2752
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY needs to pay attention to the BOJ meeting on ThursdayThe Bank of Japan will make a decision on interest rates this Thursday and the market currently expects the bank to leave interest rates unchanged. At about 10:00 Hanoi time on October 31 (Thursday), the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision. As fears of a recession in the US ease, the Bank of Japan may signal that its policy outlook will be less dovish. Recent data shows that Japan's core inflation remains under upward pressure, but the Bank of Japan will likely continue its "wait-and-see" approach at this week's meeting. The market will closely monitor the quarterly outlook report, as well as changes in the Bank of Japan's assessment of risks to the US economy and the recent depreciation of the yen. Technically, after being limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, OANDA:USDJPY has dropped to get more support from the upper edge of the price channel. Along with that, maintaining price activity above the 0.618% Fibonacci level will be a positive signal for the uptrend in the near future. Currently, USD/JPY is likely to test the 154.525 level in the short term, more so than the 155.222 level with an upward trend from the near-term price channel. However, the room for USD/JPY's price increase is no longer too wide as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching the overbought level, signaling corrections to occur. But as long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, it still has an uptrend in the short term, and as long as it stays in the price channel and maintains price activity above EMA21, it still has an uptrend in the medium to long term. The current price drops should be considered a short-term correction without changing the main trend. In the immediate future, the uptrend of USD/JPY will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 153.365 – 151.866 Resistance: 154.525 – 155.22 2
by Xayah_trading
WTI creates a price gap, room for price declineTVC:USOIL dropped sharply in the Asian trading session today, October 28, at press time WTI crude oil maintained a decrease of 3dollars on the day, equivalent to 4.18% and is currently trading at 68.6USD/barrel. The current risk aversion in the geopolitical situation has subsided. Israel's weekend retaliatory strike against Iran bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure without disrupting energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and further weakening pressure on the supply side, at the same time causing disadvantages for rising oil prices. With the US election approaching and demand expected to show no signs of recovery, some fundamental pressures have returned, causing the energy market to fall into a negative state again. Technically, on the daily chart of TVC:USOIL It created a GAP jump right at the opening of trading earlier this week and recovered slightly from the upper edge of the price channel. Although WTI crude oil recovered, it still has not reached the closest support level with the target of around 67.14 - 66.44USD, so WTI crude oil still has the ability to fall further before "filling the GAP". Usually, price gaps are filled, but this is sometimes not immediate, it can happen over the next one or more months, the important thing in trading is that it depends on the trend. WTI crude oil has been under pressure from the EMA21 moving average. Note to readers in the previous issue of WTI crude oil, along with that, the Relative Strength Index broke down from the 50 level, showing that The downside potential is very wide and the slope of the RSI also shows a huge downward momentum. Technically, WTI crude oil has enough pressure to decrease in price with main resistance at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with the downtrend, notable technical levels of WTI crude oil will be listed as follows. Support: 67.14 – 66.44USD Resistance: 68.59 – 69.73 – 70.56USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has broken out of the profit-taking trendSupported by tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions, OANDA:XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week. As a hedge against political and economic instability, OANDA:XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold. Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight. The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation. The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase. What should gold traders focus on in the current market context? Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future. 1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold. 2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results . This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset. 3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year. 4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President. General baseline assessment The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election. Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it. Economic data to watch out for this week Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision. Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls ; ISM manufacturing PMI index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels. After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point. The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below. Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2771 →Take Profit 1 2760 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2706 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2711
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [October 28 - November 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,714 USD/oz to 2,758 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,708 USD/oz, then recovered and closed the week at 2,747 USD/oz. In addition to basic factors, such as central banks buying gold, the BRICS bloc seeking de-dollarization, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, etc. are the main causes pushing up gold prices in recent times. Up to now, although tensions on the Korean peninsula have not ended, according to many experts, war is unlikely to occur on the peninsula. Because, major powers and international organizations have been trying to find ways to prevent war from happening on the Korean peninsula. As for the conflict in the Middle East, Israel has just launched an attack on military targets in Iran. According to Israel, this is the country's response to Iran's actions and Iranian proxy resources that have attacked Israel since January 10, 2024. The Israeli attack began at dawn on October 26, but ended three hours later. Israel warned Iran that if Iran responds to this Israeli attack, subsequent attacks will be stronger. Next week's gold price may continue to increase due to investors' worries about Israel's attack against Iran. However, if Iran does not retaliate against Israel, it is possible that next week's gold price will adjust back down. Next week there will be a lot of important economic data released. Notably, the non-agricultural employment report (NFP) is notable. The FED's dual mission will become the focus of attention next week when the market receives information about the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which is expected to remain at a high level. With the labor market declining and high inflation persisting, it is likely that the FED may only cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next month's meeting. This also somewhat negatively affects the psychology of gold investors, causing gold prices next week to be under more profit-taking pressure. 📌Technically, from a short-term perspective on the H1 chart, the gold price still shows an uptrend when the price is above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2720 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to conquer the round resistance level of 2800. In case the support level of 2710 is broken, the immediate gold price will decrease and adjust to around the 2680 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.758 – 2.748USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2679 - 2681⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2675
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading