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USDJPY with an uptrend, conditions towards the peak of the eraThe Bank of Japan said last Friday that it would begin reducing its bond purchases, but the reduction remains limited. So, from a fundamental perspective, this is not stimulating the Japanese yen at all. Show transactions OANDA:USDJPY is still watching for signs of how the Japanese government will intervene to support the yen to continue its appreciation. Meanwhile, the USD will still be strong because the market is pricing the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year, and Fed officials are sending hawkish messages about "high interest rates for a while". longer". Technically, the bullish structure of OANDA:USDJPY there are no changes compared to previous publications sent to you. Temporarily, USD/JPY is limited by the technical level of 158.011 and once USD/JPY maintains above this level, it will provide conditions for USD/JPY to continue to increase towards its all-time peak. Regarding the overall picture, USD/JPY still has the main trend of increasing prices with the price channel (a) being noticed as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as short-term support. As long as USD/JPY is still trading with the above support levels, the bullish trend should not change and each pullback should only be considered a technical correction. USD/JPY's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 157,224 – 156,657 Resistance: 158.011 – 160.236
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY adjusted sharply downTaking advantage of the weak US consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday to push the US Dollar down in price on the foreign exchange market, the Japanese government intervened, causing USD/JPY to plummet. The amount of intervention by the Japanese government that day amounted to 3.57 trillion yen (22.43 billion USD), less than 3 months since the last intervention. Friday's move in USD/JPY could be the result of continued intervention. It seems that the Bank of Japan will take advantage of good opportunities from time to time (for example, when major US economic data is released and the market takes advantage of the dollar's devaluation trend) to conduct unusual intervention. to achieve goals quickly, with accurate results and save costs. However, to substantively change the trend of the Yen, it still depends on whether the Bank of Japan can resolutely take some major measures, such as stopping bond purchases or significantly increasing interest rates at the meeting. interest rate meeting at the end of July, which could completely reverse the yen's downtrend. If the Japanese government remains cautious about the major issues mentioned above, it will be difficult for the Yen to recover. On the daily chart, although USDJPY has moderated significantly, it still does not technically qualify for a bearish trend. Specifically, USD/JPY's decline was limited by the technical level of 157.224 and the 0.382% Fibonacci extension; On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the oversold level but is curving upward, showing that the downward momentum and room for price declines is not too much. However, a drop below the EMA21 also creates pressure on the price increase, while the nearest resistance level is noticed at the 0.50% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the price channel (a). If USD/JPY can recover above the 0.50% Fibonacci it will have the potential for a further recovery to the EMA21 area. As long as USD/JPY is not sold below 157 it still has room to rise technically, in case it is sold below 157 it will be more bearish with 155 as the next target, So the point to protect the long position should be placed behind the level 157. Looking ahead, the technical trend of USD/JPY still offers upside with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 157.224 – 157.209 – 157 Resistance: 158.616 – 160.204
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers from $2,400, Powell continues to supportOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after correcting and testing support at the $2,400 base price point on Monday. At the time this article was completed, gold was trading at 2,430USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.31% of more than 7Dollar on the day. Gold price rose for a third straight week but fell short of its daily high as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kept his promise and did not provide expected guidance. Gold opened slightly lower on Monday after Trump's assassination over the weekend increased his chances of winning the November election. This gave slight support to the US Dollar, although concerns have eased and gold continued its upward trend, pushing gold prices to a multi-week high of $2,439/ounce. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal on Monday. Powell said second-quarter economic data gives policymakers more confidence that inflation is falling toward the Fed's 2% target. The comments could pave the way for interest rate cuts in the near future. Powell said he will not wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, because the impact of monetary policy has a lag, and keeping interest rates too high for too long will limit them too much. economic growth rate. He further explained that if we wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, we may have to wait too long because the currently applied tightening monetary policy will still have an impact and can push up interest rates. Inflation is below 2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly declined to give guidance on when the Fed might cut interest rates, but acknowledged that significant progress had been made in controlling inflation. She noted growing confidence in getting closer to the 2% inflation target and said more information was needed before making a decision on interest rates. She noted that she had seen progress toward her goal, but had not yet achieved it. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of cutting interest rates for the first time is about 99.7%. Lower interest rates will be significantly beneficial for precious metals, especially non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold adjusted and retested the original price area of ​​2,400 USD, which was the support that readers noticed in the publication last week, gold has recovered and currently maintains its price activity around 2,430 USD. by the time the article is completed. In terms of technical structure, there are not many changes compared to the previous issue sent to you with most of the technical conditions supporting the possibility of a price increase. The main trend of gold price is noticed by the price channel, as long as gold remains above EMA21, the technical outlook will still be bullish. Heading towards all-time highs, gold prices currently have no technical resistance ahead, and the nearest notable support levels remain around the $2,400 raw price. This means that, technically, very large fluctuations can continue to occur, but the upward price trend will not change. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,418 – 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD continues to refresh all-time highs, with no resistance"Dovish" comments by Federal Reserve officials reinforced market expectations of a US interest rate cut in September. Investors flocked to gold, the safe-haven asset and Gold prices increased further and continuously reached new all-time records. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that recent inflation data has reinforced policymakers' confidence that price pressures are on track to remain low, reassuring markets. market that a US interest rate cut will take place in September. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also said "confidence is rising" and inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Lower US interest rates are putting pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Gold prices are up more than 19% this year after rising 13% in 2023. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 93.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 6, 7%. According to a recent report from ANZ Bank, it is worth noting that India's gold demand could help prolong the current bull run and push gold prices even higher. India is the world's second largest gold market. In the first 5 months of 2024, India's gold imports increased by 26% over the same period last year, with 230 tons of gold flowing into the country. This is despite prices reaching record highs. There are many reasons why gold has become the top choice at the present time, basically, readers can re-read recent publications via the link below to get more information. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has continued to make new all-time highs and looking ahead there is currently no technical resistance left, with all price structures still tilted strongly to the upside. Currently, the closest support is the all-time high broken yesterday, the $2,449 level is notable support which if gold corrects below this level it is likely to retest the $2,431 area or more 2,400USD but the uptrend is unchanged. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also operating around the overbought area, showing that there is not too much room for price increases. A good signal for the downward adjustment momentum is that the RSI is bent downward. from the 80% area. Overall, even though downward corrections may occur, the bullish structure and uptrend are unchanged, as long as gold remains within the price channel, and EMA21. However, we (short-term traders) will have to face a very volatile market, the only thing that can make trading better is to be patient and control the intensity/appropriate trading volume to adapt to the current market context. Gold's uptrend will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: (No resistance level found) 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2417 - 2419 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2429
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3 key factors push GBPUSD to continue its bullish outlookSince the beginning of this year, the pound has been one of the best performing currencies. There are three factors that are driving sterling's strength and these are likely to continue to support gains in sterling over the medium term. 1. Interest rate difference Interest rate differentials are the main fundamental driver of currencies and are currently having a positive impact on GBP. The real interest rate in the UK is 3.25%, compared to 2.5% in the US. Rising real interest rates in the UK relative to the US are currently driving GBP/USD strength and this is likely to strengthen further. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90% and the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates more than twice this year. For comparison, the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August is 57% and the market expects the UK to cut interest rates less than twice this year. 2. Forecasting economic growth and inflation The UK's growth outlook has improved in recent weeks. After flat GDP growth in April, GDP growth in May was 0.4%, contrary to the 0.2% growth forecast. It also reduces the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates, because it is unlikely that the Bank of England cuts interest rates while raising GDP and CPI estimates. The Bank of England may wait until the new government's first budget before cutting interest rates, which could also benefit sterling, especially as high interest rates do not appear to be a deterrent the UK's continued recovery since last year, when the economy entered recession. 3. Political risks Political risks that have limited sterling's rise in recent years are likely to decline as the Labor government enacts pro-growth policies and builds closer ties with the EU. This will not boost sterling in the short term and its impact on the currency is difficult to predict. However, with the UK now looking politically stable, especially compared to France and the US, sterling is likely to attract "safe haven" funds in the coming months. OANDA:GBPUSD technical outlook analysis Temporarily, GBP/USD's upside momentum is being limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 1.29959 technical level but in the overall picture, GBP/USD has no technical factors bringing pressure. However, the Relative Strength Index is folding at the overbought level, showing that the room for growth is no longer strong and it is possible that GBP/USD will face some corrections without affecting the trend. main increase. In the short term, the nearest support level is at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension point, which if GBP/USD falls below this level it will tend to correct downwards to test the price point of 1.28924 in the short term. On the other hand, once GBP/USD breaks the 1.29959 resistance level it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle with the target level then at 1.30519 price points of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. During the day, the bullish outlook for GBP/USD remains unchanged with a correction to be noticed by the following price points. Support: 1.29582 – 1.28924 Resistance: 1.29959 – 1.30519
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past weekGBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past week, briefly reaching its highest level in nearly two months at one point before the weekend. If the rally continues and gains momentum in the coming sessions, resistance is likely to appear at 1.2720, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. Further strength could then direct focus toward the 1.2800 mark. On the flip side, if the upward impetus fades and sellers regain control of the market, confluence support extending from 1.2615 to 1.2585 could offer stability in case of a pullback. If tested, traders should watch closely for price reaction, keeping in mind that a breakdown could give way to a move towards the 200-day simple moving average hovering around 1.2540.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD rallied early on TuesdayGBP/USD rallied early on Tuesday, briefly reaching its highest point since March 21, but gains were short-lived as sellers quickly pushed the pair down from the psychological 1.2800 level, driving it towards 1.2755. If this ceiling holds in the near term, bulls may start bailing, creating the right conditions for a move toward 1.2700. Further weakness could shift focus to 1.2635. Conversely, if buyers manage to reclaim dominance in the coming days and take out resistance at 1.2800, the upward momentum could intensify, propelling GBP/USD towards 1.2895 – the March peak. While overcoming this ceiling might be difficult, it is still feasible. On that note, upside clearance of this barrier could result in a rally towards the 1.3000 handle.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD holds firm despite hawkish FOMC minutesUK inflation data for April showed a slower-than-expected decrease in consumer inflation. However, services inflation, which has been persistently high, exceeded the estimated level predicted by analysts and economists. This unexpected outcome caused a delay in the expected rate cut from August to November, with only one rate cut now anticipated for this year. As a result, the pound and Gilt yields increased, leading to a rise in GBP/USD. GBP/USD briefly rose above 1.2736 but was pulled back down by hawkish FOMC minutes. It is now trading higher again, showing resilience around the 1.2736 level. With both the BoE and Fed leaning towards a more hawkish stance, a significant move may be challenging without another catalyst. The upcoming US PCE data at the end of next week could provide that catalyst. For now, the pound is pushing higher.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD also edged down on ThursdayGBPUSD also edged down on Thursday, but managed to stabilize around the 1.2515/1.2500 range. Bulls must strive to maintain prices above this support region to prevent sentiment towards the pound from deteriorating; otherwise, sellers could seize the opportunity to launch a bearish assault on 1.2430. On the other hand, if buyers make a new appearance and propel prices higher, resistance emerges at 1.2550, where the 200-day simple moving average converges with a short-term descending trendline. Moving further up, attention will be focused on Fibonacci resistance at 1.2590, followed by 1.2620.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD is experiencing bearish conditions due to a dovish BoEBritish private sector business activity grew in June at its slowest pace since November last year, according to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI report. According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global, the slowdown partly “reflects the uncertainty surrounding the business environment in the run-up to the general election.” UK service sector inflation remains high “still evident in the survey, but will at least ease from the current 5.7% pace in the coming months.” UK government bond yields continue to fall, boosted by dovish moves by the Bank of England. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE's monetary policy meeting in August and a total cut of just under 50 basis points this year. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD has technical conditions that support the possibility of a bearish price with pressure from the newly formed short-term price channel, the price channel and the break below the price channel indicate an uptrend for GBP/ The USD is no longer technically functional. Additionally, GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21), along with the RSI pointing down but still quite far from the oversold area. This shows that there is still a lot of room for technical downside for GBP/USD. With price activity below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement and within the price channel, GBP/USD is expected to decline further in the near term with a short-term target level of around 1.25956 price points of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, technical conditions lean bearish for GBP/USD and technical levels are in focus again as follows. Support: 1.25956 Resistance: 1.26650 – 1.27400
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD attempts to hold 1.0700OANDA:EURUSD ANALYSIS - Focus returns to Europe and France in particular in the lead up to the elections - Will the ECB step in to calm widening bond spreads considering Frances debt load? - EUR/USD fails to capitalize on Mondays reprieve – downside risks remain WILL THE ECB STEP IN TO CALM WIDENING BOND SPREADS CONSIDERING FRANCE'S DEBT LOAD? With the focus shifting back to Europe, particularly France, the campaign for the upcoming parliamentary elections is in full swing. The rising popularity of Marine Le Pen's National Rally party has concerned markets, as they see it as a potential unpredictable force impacting European bond markets. The risk premium applied to riskier nations like Italy and France is reflected in the French-German spreads, while investors have turned to safer German bonds. Keep an eye on any sell-off in periphery nations' bonds as it could lead to a weaker euro when France goes to vote. The ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, described the recent bond market movement as "repricing" and not chaotic. The ECB introduced a new tool to address any potential fragmentation in the bond market in 2022, which involves purchasing bonds from qualifying member states if borrowing costs become uncontrollable. France's debt to GDP ratio is currently above the EU's recommended 60%, which may complicate their eligibility for assistance if spreads get out of control. OANDA:EURUSD ATTEMPTS TO HOLD 1.0700 BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN On Monday, the pair attempted to break through the 1.0700 level, but concerns about momentum and downside risks persist. The price is currently trading below the 200 simple moving average and is likely to retest 1.0700. Key support levels are at 1.0600 and potentially even 1.0450, which was the low point of the major decline in 2023. EU inflation data has been declining despite a slight increase in May. The ECB is considering another interest rate cut. Today, ZEW economic sentiment fell short of expectations at 47.5 (slightly better than last month's 47.1). Inflation expectations have increased due to the slightly higher May figures.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD ticked up on TuesdayEURUSD ticked up on Tuesday but failed to decisively push past confluence resistance between 1.0865 and 1.0880, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of last year's decline intersects a key short-term descending trendline. Traders should continue to watch this ceiling in the coming days, bearing in mind that a bullish breakout could set the stage for a rally toward 1.0980. In the event of sellers successfully defending the technical zone at 1.0865/1.0880, we could see downside pressure drive the exchange rate down toward support at 1.0810. The pair may stabilize around this floor during a pullback before resuming its ascent. However, if a breakdown occurs, a retest of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0790 could be imminent, with attention then transitioning to 1.0775.
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD remains tight as the market can take cues from PCE dataThe lack of US data last week resulted in lower volatility, benefiting the dollar and treasury yields. Low volatility favors higher yielding currencies in the FX market. The upcoming US PCE data could impact the dollar's performance. Better than expected survey data on Friday revealed a decrease in inflation expectations, causing temporary weakness in the dollar and a rise in EUR/USD. This recovery in EUR/USD may lead to bearish movement next week. If inflation in the eurozone, particularly in Germany, continues to weaken, the euro could face pressure midweek. Many ECB officials have expressed a preference for a 25 basis point cut next month, which could lead to further easing leading up to the June ECB meeting. In contrast, the May Fed meeting minutes showed a more hawkish approach and lack of confidence in reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target, supporting a stronger US dollar and higher US yields. The upcoming EU inflation data could cause the Lower German pair to trade lower. This could be further influenced by disappointing PCE inflation. If there is no new swing high at the beginning of the week, it may lead to a bearish move for the rest of the week. A sell-off could occur if the pair drops below 1.0800, while a bullish continuation would require surpassing the recent high of 1.0895 on a daily closing basis.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has broke back of interests for the weekEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the euro zone inflation being under control. In contrast, the recently released Fed minutes indicate a negative impact on the committee's confidence in achieving 2% inflation and suggest that it will take more time to recover. The minutes were recorded before the latest US CPI data, highlighting that a single positive print is not enough for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts seriously. EURUSD was expected to give up last week's gains as the FX market focused on higher yielding currencies like the US dollar, Pound Sterling, and the Kiwi dollar. Despite breaking out of an ascending channel, EURUSD traded slightly higher in the London AM session following improved European flash PMI data for May. German manufacturing data showed signs of improvement, moving closer to the neutral 50 mark, and there was a slight increase in sentiment in the services sector as well. Channel support, now resistance, serves as the nearest challenge to dollar strength heading into the end of the week. 1.0800 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) present downside levels of interest.
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 15 - July 19]Latest data shows that it is impossible to cool down the gold market. Spot gold closed down about 4 dollars at 2,410 USD/oz, recovering quickly from the short-term selling pressure created when PPI data was released. US PPI rose slightly higher than expected in June as higher carrier margins more than offset falling commodity costs. On Friday (July 12), data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the producer price index (PPI) increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. last year, higher than expected. However, Gold prices rose to their highest since May 22 on Thursday after a surprise drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data reinforced the view that the deflationary trend has continued and raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. as early as September. With the Fed now wary of labor market weakness, financial markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and are predicting a further fall in borrowing costs in December. As noted by readers in the brief comments when the data was released on the impact trend observation data, PPI data is typically not tracked as closely as CPI data so the impact of it for CPI data will be insignificant. In other words, if CPI and PPI are on the same trend, PPI will synergistically boost the impact of CPI. Otherwise, if PPI is not on the same trend, its impact will not be as great as CPI. As the market gradually approaches a low interest rate environment (assessing expectations based on macro data), inflation cools and dovish comments from the Fed increase expectations for interest rate cuts, these factors will be solid support for precious metals. Not taking into account other unexpected factors from geopolitical risks that can escalate at any time, in all cases when geopolitical conflicts occur, gold is always chosen as a safe haven. Notable economic data and events next week Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Tuesday: Retail sales in the US Wednesday: US housing construction figures and building permits Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending July 9, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 13,062 lots to 191,603 lots . Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After adjusting and retesting the support area noted by readers in the previous edition, the area around 2,400 - 2,390 USD gold recovered to close above the original price of 2,400 USD. In terms of weekly closing position, the weekly closing above 2,400 USD should be considered a positive signal because at this point the original price point of 2,400 USD has become the closest technical support point of gold price. The bullish technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the medium-term trend and the price channel as the short-term uptrend. The fact that gold keeps its price activity in the above two price channels provides conditions for price increases towards the levels of 2,425 - 2,449 USD in the near future, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is an overbought level. The place to buy is still available. Looking ahead, technical conditions support a bullish case for gold prices on the daily chart, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,425 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will first be to buy if the price is around 2375, watch to sell around 2450, then wait to buy again at 2350, wait to sell at 2480.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD driven by CPI, next eye on PPI dataThe release of the US inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. The US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices reached a 6-week high then corrected slightly in the Asian trading session today Friday (July 12). CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut • US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates. • The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year. • Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021. • The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021. CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate. Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart. The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439 ⚰️SL: 2445 ⬆️TP1: 2434 ⬆️TP2: 2429 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2391
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased about 1%, the third consecutive week of increaseWorld gold prices decreased but still maintained the 2,400 USD/oz mark in the trading session on Friday (July 12) and completed the third consecutive week of increase thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon interest rate cuts. Some experts predict that gold prices could re-establish an all-time record in the next few days. This week, world gold prices increased by about 1%, marking the third consecutive week of increase. On Thursday, gold prices reached their highest level in 6 weeks, thanks to motivation from a statistical report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) in June unexpectedly decreased. The data reinforces the view that the downward trend in US inflation has resumed and increases the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. A report from the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that PPI - a measure of wholesale inflation - increased 0.2% in June compared to the previous month, higher than the 0.1% increase forecast by economists. reported in a survey by Reuters news agency. In May, this index moved sideways compared to April. However, the above report basically did not change interest rate expectations. Data from CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders still bet on a more than 93% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates in September. The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust had its second consecutive week of net gold purchases this week, but the net purchase amount only reached 0.3 tons of gold. Data from the fund's website shows that at the end of Friday, this fund was holding approximately 835.1 tons of gold. The prospect of lower interest rates has put downward pressure on the USD this week, causing the Dollar Index to fall 0.34% on Friday, closing the week at 104.08 points - according to data from MarketWatch. For the whole week, this index decreased by 0.75%, bringing the total decrease in the past month to nearly 1.4%.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]After gold retested the $2,364 level it broke this technical level over the weekend and headed towards the original price point of $2,400. As sent to readers in recent publications, in terms of technical factors, gold price still has enough conditions for a bullish outlook with the main support being noticed at the EMA21 moving average line, The fact that gold prices are operating above the 21-day moving average makes this moving average a reliable support. On the other hand, in the short term the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also a notable support point; Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that the upward price momentum is still widespread. In the immediate future, the target level will still be noticed at the original price point of 2,400 USD, this is an important price point where the gold price can make short-term downward adjustments here. However, once the original price level of 2,400 USD is broken, gold will continue to move towards 2,449 USD in the short term. The bullish outlook for gold prices will be highlighted again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350 – 2,345USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD moves closer to 2,370 USD, pay attention to CPIIn the Asian market today, Wednesday (July 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term, gold prices approached the mark of 2,370 USD/ounce. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not give a clear signal that an interest rate cut was imminent. In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Powell said that inflation "remains above" the Fed's 2% target, but it has improved in recent months, so if the Fed wants to start cutting rates productivity, they need more good data to support its plausibility. Powell also noted that the labor market has cooled, adding that “we now have bilateral risks” and can no longer focus solely on inflation. But Powell did not offer the dovish stance some market participants were looking for. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. This hearing was Powell's last public address to Congress before the United States presidential election. Following Powell's congressional speech, the market's focus is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Thursday. Recent data shows US CPI data starting to decline from unexpectedly high levels at the beginning of the year. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 26.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 70.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3 .3%. When interest rates are low, the attractiveness of gold tends to increase and boost gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to try to recover from the downward correction earlier this week and is heading towards the price area that was the resistance target noted by readers in yesterday's publication, at the price point of 2,377. USD. The fact that gold maintains price activity above 2,364USD is considered a positive technical signal. Meanwhile, once gold breaks the resistance at 2,377 USD, it will have enough technical conditions to continue towards the subsequent target level at the original price point of 2,400 USD. In terms of the overall technical chart, gold has all the bullish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, the nearest support is noticed at the technical point of 2,364 USD and the support confluence of the price channel, Fibonacci retracement. 0.236% and EMA21 moving average. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, the near-term technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,377 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2384 - 2382 ⚰️SL: 2388 ⬆️TP1: 2377 ⬆️TP2: 2372 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD corrects and recovers, pay special attention to today's CPIOANDA:XAUUSD eased after a significant rise on Wednesday and started to recover in early Asian trading today (July 11). Powell's testimony hinted at expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, while investors await June U.S. inflation data to come. announced this weekend. A clearer picture of the path of US interest rates after the release of CPI and PPI data. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said Wednesday local time that current monetary policy is restrained and the neutral interest rate has increased, at least in the short term. Usually when Powell talks about a higher neutral interest rate, it means a higher long-term policy rate. Powell said policy rates have been kept high for longer than initially expected because inflation and the labor market have been slow to respond. But Powell added that this is an issue the Fed will consider in its next policy review, which begins later this year, so it could have an impact on long-term interest rates going forward. Powell reiterated on Wednesday that more good data is needed to strengthen his stance on loose monetary policy. On inflation, Powell said Wednesday that he is not yet confident that inflation will fall sustainably toward the 2% target. However, there is no need to wait for inflation to drop to 2% to cut interest rates. Regarding the prospect of cutting interest rates, Mr. Powell said the Fed does not need to wait until inflation falls below 2% before cutting interest rates. Regarding interest rate cuts, no specific inflation value (standard) is noted. The Fed has made great progress in shrinking its balance sheet, but there is still a long way to go. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the market expects a 74.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. Market focus is now shifting to US CPI and PPI data released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recent data shows that US inflation has eased from unexpectedly high levels earlier this year. Pay special attention to CPI data that will be published at 7:30 p.m. Hanoi time today, Thursday (July 11). If inflation data continues to shrink, this will continue to be a fundamental factor in favor of gold prices. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, it will boost the Dollar and cause gold prices to face the possibility of a correction. significantly reduced. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold prices have adjusted downward after increasing significantly in yesterday's trading session, the general trend has not changed with factors supporting the possibility of price increases. In the immediate term, sustaining above $2,364 provides gold prices with the closest support and once it breaks $2,377 it will have room to continue bullish with a target then at the 2,400 raw price point. USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the bullish technical outlook will not change, on the other hand, the RSI pointing up without reaching the overbought level suggests room for further upside. The technical side remains on the daily chart. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350USD Resistance: 2,387 – 2,393 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD correction, nearest support level, main technical trendDuring the European market trading session on Monday (July 8), spot gold tended to adjust significantly intraday since the 6-week high reached last week. The current gold price is about 2,372 USD/ounce, down more than 18 USD during the day. Gold prices adjusted gently mainly due to the recovery in Bond Yields, with the 10-year US Bond Yield at 4,308 recovering 0.61% on the day. In addition, China's suspension of gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June put pressure on gold prices. Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings were unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June. In May, China's central bank decided to pause the increase in gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold buying spree that was seen as a support that had helped gold prices rise to record highs. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 73.8%, slightly reduced from the 74% probability after the release of US nonfarm payroll data on Thursday. Six weeks ago, according to FedWatch data provided by CME group. On the daily chart, as noted by readers in the previous issue, the current correction in gold prices has not yet reached the first support level at 2,364 USD and as long as gold remains above the level 2,364USD, the ability to adjust will still face many limitations. Instead, the support level at $2,364 is noted as a near-term support level that could push gold prices further towards the original price point of $2,400. In case the gold price continues to be sold below 2,364 USD, it has conditions to adjust further with a target level of about 2,340 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci level. However, in the overall technical picture, the technical trend of gold price is still more inclined towards the possibility of price increase with the following price points being noticed. Support: 2,364 – 2,360USD Resistance: 2,392 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2371
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1