Expect strengthLately we've been seeing out performance vs SPX in tech XLK, financials XLF and consumer discretionary XLY. I think we have no reason not to expect strength in XBI biotech to pick up some steam in the weeks to come.
XBI
BioTech Stocks look to be making a serious recoveryAfter what looked like the beginning of an equity bear-market to some, Biotech stocks seem to be setting up for more bullish momentum.
looks like a nice long setupGreen weekly trend lines. Most interesting to me is the long RSI channel that's been forming, would like to see that continue.
PTX: Inverted Head and ShouldersI'm not a fan of biotechs; they tend to come with a lot of BS that ruins patters. But I like PTX here, cautiously.
XBI / LABD / LABUwho has the insight?
Option A: crazy breakout to the upside
Option B: Big ol' Bear! (growl)
BIOTECH monthly IBB nasdaq Current and potential trend scenarios:
Decreasing volume on the monthly in recent months
currently looking to break upper trend line for a breakout.
A break down on strong volume toward the lower trend line may break for a considerable pull back.
DESCENDING TRIANGLE We are humans and before going forward we like to test and retest ...This time is not different and the momentum on the daily is starting it is transition into negative territoty + bearish macd crossover...
I open a long position in $labd yesterday but the drop in $xbi will not come until next week..Friday should confirm the berish trade setup and i will be ready to increment position depending on the situation...I have a very tight stop loss and everyone should manage risk/reward before buying so play safe.
$Labd
Give me my discount!!Last time i miss the entry because i did not complay my rules of eliminating noise... I did not analyze the big picture first...
This time is different and i am ready for a short position and get disscount iN the process...
Levels to watch:
77.02,75.69 -73.49
LABD interesting pattern. Video Analysis XBI IncludedLooks to be an ascending wedge. Measured move, target, predicted price path, Divergences, and fib levels included.
This week's Biotech Sector Video Analysis: www.youtube.com
XBI: Biotech slide back to channel bottom until End-JulyXBI, LABU, BIB should slide to the bottom of the channel until End-July. See high moving-average divergence, reconvergence and channel pattern. Short unless something changes.
Iron Condor on XBI with a slight negative assumption.Decided to deploy a slight negative to neutral bias August18th Iron Condor option on XBI. 30 Day IV rank 84.952%
The strikes are as follows. The Sell side is a 10 point spread of 74(.24 delta) Put / 84 (.30 delta) Call. The buy side options at the 72 and 86 strikes respectively.
Premium collected was .90 cents per share which and will look to cover position between 40-50% max profit of 90 cents.
Biotech Season Off to a Good Start
NASDAQ:PIRS catching some short covering perhaps near end of the day, sending it up near the critical 5 area. Low 4s held very well after a month long run and consolidation. Expecting this to breakout over 5 barring any extraordinary news; not following company details but certainly ripe for a catalyst. Wouldn't be surprised with upgrade ratings or purchase disclosures in the coming weeks that may drive it further in the near-term.
Biotech seasonality is upon us, further adding to my long bias here.
TRIPLE TOPXBI UPTHRUST CAUGHT A LOT OF PEOPLE WITH THE GUARD DOWN BUT BEARISH DIVERGENCE WAS A WARNING FROM THE START..
Everything happen so fast when xbit started to plunge after IDMC recommends ending late-stage trial of colorectal cancer treatment and this event that happened at 2:40pm on friday overturn $xbi at the same moment and now is going back to 400 EMA $67..
STOCHASTICS OVERBOUGHT AND HEIKI ASHI BEARISH CONFIRMATION + MOMENTUM GOING INTO SELLING MODE +MACD CROSSOVER
BIG INTEREST PLAY THE 300 , 400 EMA ... WATCH SMALLER TIMEFRAME FOR A FASTER CONFIRMATION BUT IN MY OPINION IS NOT GOING TO HOLD...
Biotech ETF Double Top Drop To Technical SupportThe SPDR S&P Biotech ETF began its departure from the bearish double top around the beginning of May. Typically the stock drops toward its last strong support level, and most times drops below that as well. Currently, the stock has been trending down, but is yet to make it to this shared support at 66.30. With the gains for the ETF on June 1, it could be an excellent time to setup a short position.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.3469. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral. The ETF could move either direction but may not be prone to volatile swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.4073. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down and the 50 day moving average for the TSI has been on top and parallel for at least two weeks. This is an indicator the ETF could continue its overall downtrend.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9448 and the negative is at 0.9331. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a tight channel and are both below 1. The first indicator to cross above 1 could be the prevailing direction in which the ETF will move.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 28.7305 and D value is 35.2426. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently trending down, but has at least five days until it could reach oversold territory. This will be the key indicator to watch on when the potential bottom of the downward movement is reached.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner.
XBI may be in another triangle with potensial big downsideXBI S&P500 biotech index may be in another rising triangle, we see price action at top of triangle for possible short entry. Instrument LABD x3 can be used for shorting this index.
