BLUE- a biotechnology earnings penny stock LONGBLUE a week ago had a bull run to gain 90% in 5 days and then reversed into a standard
Fibonacci retracement on the 30-minute chart, then in consolidation for a day or two getting
support from the mean anchored VWAP. The last trading day was a quick rise with momentum
in a bull flag. Earnings are coming. I will take another long trade on BLU into earnings. My
target is 1.90 about the high of the prior trend up and below the second VWAP line above
the mean. A tight stop loss at 1.53 ( below the flag's consolidation) will make it more likely the
trade will be a 20% winner. I have taken call options strikng $1.50 for March 15th for $20 each.
or a small loss of 2-3%
XBI
LEXX a penny medical stock LONGLEXX on the daily chart is on a big bullrun breaking out of an ascending broadening triangle
or megaphone pattern demostrative of increasing volatility. Retlative volumes are 2X the
historical comparison. Price is now on the approach to the highs of 2023 but is only 15% of
the all high highs of 19 at the neckline of a head and shoulders back in 2018-2019, In short
it has a lot of upside if it can show earnings growth on higher revenues. For now targets are
4.15 the high of 2022 and 6.45 the high of 2021 marked on the chart in black horizontal
lines. LEXX is a money burning medical penny it is high risk like its peers. The reward
potential is as much as 7X and more realistically 2X in the intermediate term.
I will so long here with the risk in mind in the context of the reward potential.
VERX ATH on Earnings LONGVERX on the 15 minute chart demonstrates printing a high tight bull flag pattern in its
bullrun after the earnings report was a two line beat much like the one a quarter ago.
VERX has impressed traders including this one who got in on the ride early. I will trade
this like others recently with a similar pattern. I will hold during the consolidation and
watch for a break above the flag regression channel. I will add upon the break and
set a trailing stop loss of 5% upon a rise of another 5% keeping the profits safe while
underway. See my ideas on SOUN DUOL, VTYX and a few others. Review the link to
the pattern description here. See also my swing long trade ideas for this sector XBI and LABU.
NVAX rises impending an earnings report LONGToday NVAX is selling for a tiny fraction of its all-time high as shown in a previous idea. Earnings
is coming this upcoming week. This week NVAX news release showed it had settled a years long
litigation over a failed COVID. In the face of earnings around the corner, was this news release
a coincidence or instead a case of excellent executive and legal timing? I will skip the
conspiracy discussion.
On the chart, NVAX's bullish momentum is clear on its face. A price rise of 22% from a stock
that has been stuck in deeply undervalued territory for a significant time period is remarkable.
I have bought far out of the money call options into 2025 and 2026 some only this past month.
Those from this month are now up over 250% with 11 and 23 months to go to expiration.
I see NVAX as a risky penny medical stock with a high reward potential relative to the
risk. It is a potential buy-out candidate and bankruptcy is less likely. The rich uncle is
MRNA but the richer uncle in PFE might gain some interest. The wisest of capitalists buy out
the competition when there is an opportunity and do not worry about the government crying
monopoly when life-saving and life-extending medical products are involved. Time will tell.
I expect insane profits.
IOVA a volatile medical stock approaches earnings LONGIOVA has doubled in February and broke out above its volume profile high volume area about
one week ago as it runs to earnings. Since it settled down two days ago into a relative side-
ways consolidation. I will take a long trade here for a pre-earnings play to presume that the
buying and bullish momentum will resume nearly immediately.
MRNA- a vaccine biotechnology stock LONGMRNA focuses on vaccine research and development and we are in the flu season an COVID is
lurking in the shadows and trying to make a comback. It had an excellent earnings report and
forward guidance. On the 60 minute chart, price has bounced up from a test of the anchored
VWAP and is at the level of the first upper VWAP while in side the high volume area of the
volume profile. The RSI is in the 60s. Bullish momentum is obvious. I will add to my ongoing
position here and again the next time I see a dip on the 15-30-minute chart. I look forward
to take a piece out of the position after the next earnings report in about 75 days. I have an
alert for relative volume when the running mean is exceeded on the 30 minute chart which
notify me to take a look at the chart. This is illustrated on this longer time frame chart about
the days around earnings but occurs from time to time from other events. As an aside, if NVAX
gets weak and develops fundamental challenges. MRNA is a potential rich uncle and could be
the leading candidate to do a takeover, friendly or otherwise.
LABU a 3X leveraged ETF of biotechnology stocks LONGLABU on a 240-minute chart has been in a trend up gaining 100% in 3 months. Both the fast and
slow ( green and red) are above the 50 level. Biotechnology is expected to be a hot subsector
this year as healthcare recovered further from the COVID pandemic anything from startups to
big pharma- from vaccines to new drugs for diabetes, liver disease and obesity. Leveraged
funds have time decay from the leveraging and management fees and are meant to be for
short-term trading. Nonetheless, 100% in 3 months is an excellent return. I add to my position
when I see a pullback on the 15-30 minute chart. If price rises more than 2% in a day I may
take 1-2 shares off the position to realize some profit and recycle ( compound) into the next
buy. According to those that follow sectors, LABU should outperform this year.
NVAX- a medical penny stock Buy Weakness LONGNVAX on a 120 minute chart demonstrates a trend down in the past month after a period of
consolidation producing the POC line on the volume profile. The MACD shows some bullish
divergence. The volume profile has high volume nodes at 4.0 and 5.0 separated by a relative
volume void. NVAX fell quickly through that void. It can just as easily rise through it. See the
linked article on NVA from TipRanks. Options volume and pricing analysis is that bets are looking
at5.0 diligently. Fundamentally, NVAX has been range limited by its focus on COVID but it does
have other projects in its pipeline admittedly on various timelines with varying probabilities
of capitalizing on them depending on clinical trials FDA approvals and so on. On the imbedded
relative strength table as compared with SPY and peers in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology,
medical device and healthcare spaces NVAX compares favorably with MRNA its closest peer
but is weak compared with most of the others I have selected especially with LLY, which is
high-flying from its anti-obesity drug breakout. Device companies Stryker and Intuitive Surgical
are quite strong as well. United Healthcare is dominant in the insurance subsector and strong
overall.
One often effective strategy is to buy when an instrument is oversold and undervalued at a
discount. I will buy NVAX here no matter that I have insider connections with one of those
medical device companies and a few not on the list. Sentiment only goes
so far. I found the article compelling and so Novavax long I go. On a trading site left unsaid
my screenname is "Bottom Feeding Grinder". I have an appetite for NVAX found at the bottom
right now. This is a reversal/reversion to the mean long trade. It is not without risk. As a
penny stock with high volumes, low cost of entry and perhaps low floats, volatility is
underscored and exaggerated if a volume inflow gets underway That said, a short squeeze
is within the spectrum of possibilities. Enough said for now.
Novavax- NVAX- Medical Technology Vaccine Focused LONGNVAX on the 15 minute chart has been compressing price action volatility into a symmetrical
triangle. It in now in a breakout of the triangle and in the process when from undervalued on
Monday to the upper trendline and then down to the support trendline and then up again.
It passed through the volume profile and its high volume area. In short, it has bullish
momentum capped off with a breakout from the high volume area into a bullflag to rest the
weekend. I am in this stock going and now is an opportunity to add to the position. If a trader
wants to know what I consider to be targets upside, let me know. Medical technology is
expected to be among the hottest of subsectors for 2024. NVAX has been beaten down. I
believe it has significant upside for the long term. in the short term, earnings are expected
on February 28th so this is a trade to consider on that run up. Call options for March 2 or March
16 can be considered.
Nutrix Therapeutics ( NRIX) has momentum for earnings LONGNRIX , on the 15 minute chart is experiencing increase volatility and volume now two
days out from its earnings report. It printed a "big ass" green engulfing candle to finish the
week. The MACD with zero lag shows a bullish inflection in the lines
On the daily chart, price fell about 25% in 2023. earnings have been both line beats but
the negative cash flow remains as a challenge. The volume and volatility show both are
heightened in the pre-earnings run- up. . This is a risky earnings
play, NRIX does not yet make money like many other young biotechnology companies trying to
grow However, because it lost less than forecasted, buyer interest has increased. There is
an absence of any options volume and so illiquidity prevents consideration of options
trading. I suspect a long trade in shares may gain to $14 targeting the pivot highs of
April 23 and November 22 for projected gain upside of about 65% ( stop loss of 2.5%)
If earnings disappoint trader expectations and price fades I will stop out with a loss of about
2.5% This makes this long swing trade a projected 2.5 /65 a R:r of 25 which validates it as
a conservative trade if taking only 5% or less of buyer power applied to the risk. Biotechnology
is expected to be one of the hottest subsectors of 2024. This could be one of them.
CARA a Biotech Pennys Stock with earnings coming LONGCARA is here on a 15 minute chart. The earnings report is due March 4th. The price action is
already demonstrative of bullish momentum. CARA rose 60% this past week. It is still on sale
at 95% off its all time high. Spiking buying volume, and so an upgoing Price Vulme Trend and
squeeze release triggers on lower time frames all have CARA moving well prior to earnings.
I see this as a long trade setup quite well. The available option contract on a thin-chain
for strike 2.5 on March 15 added 20% on Friday. I will pass on any options contracts as the
thin volume is a higher-than-acceptable risk. I will be more than happy with another 60%
price rise in the upcoming week and it could be more.
RZLT Biotechnology Penny Stock Reports in the next day LONGRZLT is a biotechnology company which has products in clinical development. Many are aware that means rigorous clinical trials before an FDA approval and a product line that generates earnings. Stock price is more about growth and potential more than anything else. That
said the chart looks good and I sense there is momentum heading into earnings in the next day
so this is a buy for me. I can see that price broke above a recent supply/resistance zone. This
penny stock likely cannot be shorted so there is no selling pressure to be exerted until present
longs have found their target. This can add to the momentum without the drag of that short selling. A penny here and a penny there it all adds up over time especially with compounding in active trading with penny stocks that have great range.
SRZN a Penny biotech LONGSRZN has had good momentum. It has no revenues. Clinical trials but a lot of cash. SRZN has
advanced trials underway for a product to treat alcoholic hepatitis presumably settling it down
before it becomes irreversible cirrhosis (only for patients who are alcohol-free) and also useful
for liver metabolic disorders from a genetic basis.
SRZN has been trending up for a week with a bit of a pause in the middle of it. It picked up
60% of its price while breaking out through the anchored VWAP lines and the volume profile.
The far greater market is the former.
It is priced at 90 or more off it's all-time high of about $160. IF it picks up hype from the
last clinical trial getting a report and a calendared review by the, SRZN could reach for that
all time high. This is speculative and risky as are most biotechnology penny stocks. They are
trading news and potential not current net revenues. A small position with room in the stop
loss for the average range and volatility is best. This is a typical high risk higher potential
reward type of trade.
LABU / LABD Ratio Anchored VWAP over /under LABU LONGOn the weekly chart a LABU / LABD ratio is plotted with anchored VWAP bands and a volume
profile overlaid. I wanted to analyze this to affirm the highest of prospects for the
Biotechnology sector for 2024. LABU is triple leveraged Up while LABD is the inverse Down.
A good unleveraged biotech ETF is XBI. The chart shows LABU in a VWAP band and breakout
through the hohg volume area and then over it beginning early November. Unusually high
relative volume and volatility ramped up about the same time.
I readily conclude that LABU is the buy right now with the ratio rising. It is a low beat ETF
with good range due to the leveraging and high forecasts for 2024. I will make buys on
LABU at regular intervals on a 60-120 minute time frame looking for the weekly lows.
I will set an alert for a falling ratio on the 3H to daily chart to assess should the supertrend
fade. I believe that this will be a safe low risk swing long trade.
Opening (IRA): XBI March 15th 84 Monied Covered Call... for an 81.63 debit.
Comments: 32.1% 30-Day IV.
My general preference for ETF IV is >35%, but there isn't much currently there in my ETF screener, and I'm already in a GDX position: TQQQ (52.3%); USO (38.1%); GDXJ (35.0%).
Buying a one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate a 25 delta short put with "built-in" defense of the position via the short call.
2.37 max on BPE of 81.63; 2.90% ROC at max; 1.45% at 50% max.
FGEN A Biotechnology Penny running to earnings LONGFGEN has been uptrending for two weeks. In November's earnings it beat on revenue and
burned less cash than projected. Another earnings report is impending. On the 30 minute
chart, price has pumped 250%. The volume is okay but is not showing a rise and the price
volume trend is flat. This is an unusual pattern. The mass index indicator shows hints of
getting into the threshold and trigger zones. The dual TF RSI shows both low and high TF lines
in the 60s. I am inclined to watch this, the price rise without corresponding volume increases
seems to run against Wychoff theory. I will put it on a watch list. As a speculative penny
stock with no earnings I will leave it alone until I see increased volume and volatility at
earnings. Could there be some manipulation hidden behind the chart?
XBI Consolidating Just Below Major PivotXBI, the S&Ps Biotech ETF has been ranging nicely just below a major pivot that has acted as resistance for over two years. Bounced off the 20 EMA on the daily and made a beautiful candle on Friday. Anything that happens below $95 must be taken with a grain of salt, but it looks like it wants to breakout and flip that resistance pivot to support.
INBS pumped on earnings crush= Watching for LONG maybeINBS crush earnings and went parabolic on an earnings beat. Basically, revenues fell but with
belt-tightening and good CEO actions it bled less cash than expected. The tourniquet is
working. The post-earnings pump was followed by a flush to the mid-Fib 0.5 support. Trader's
got their reward and called it a weekend before lunch. The chop index fell into the
consolidation zone and the MACD turned bearish. See the 5 minute chart image inserted to
the left. The RSI lines are about 50 maybe with a crossdown impending. I have this on watch
for a reversal up. Much will depend on general market strength on Monday. Biotechnology
is projected as a hot sector now. This stock was among the hottest of the day. Hoping for
a bullish continuation knowing that a trend down is likewise possible.
ZBH a medical device company falls on earnings beat LONGZBH is a big global medical device company. It is old school. Aluminum titanium polymers, plates screws wires. Hollywood stars are familiar as it makes the devices for leg lengthening surgery. ( shortening is easy, lengthening not so much) I am familiar because in the past I have served as a consultant for this company. It business is mainly orthopedic elective surgery in supporting orthopedic surgeons serving their patients spine straightening to braces for after a neck fracture.
Not a surprise but a lot of surgeries were put off during Covid. So much that the catching up is still ongoing. This is part of the reason why healthcare and the medical technology sectors are expected to be among the hottest of 2024.
So much for fundamentals, the technical analysis support for a long trade is commented on the chart. On it you can see the trend since the last earnings. ZBH reported Thursday, January 7th.
with an earnings beat and a dip in preparation for a possible rip. The lunch hour of Thursday's session would be the next best time while another time is when you find another dip after you
have read this.
Want to trade and hedge your trade? Just take a trade in SYK and let them have a race. Cut the underperformer and use the proceeds to get more of the other. It's a very simple plan.
Want a broad trade in medical technology? Take a look at XBI or leveraged LABU.
Opening (IRA): XBI April 19th 77 Monied Covered Call... for a 74.27 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" to my XBI position here .... . Selling the -75 delta call and buying a one lot to emulate a 25 short put to take advantage of IV skew in calls (40.2% at the 77 strike on the call side; 33.0% on the put).
2.73 max profit on BPE of 74.27; 3.68% ROC as a function of BPE at max; 1.84% at 50% max.
RYTM Biotech Penny Anti-Obesity LONGRYTM did a 120% run in November and December and then pivoted to start the year. It competes
in the anti-obesity drug space which is all the rage right now and has snack food manufactures
freaking out. The retrace was a shallow one in a sign of strength finding support at the 0.382
retracement level and then pivoting into a reversal in the past week. The dual TF RSI shows
the resurgence of bullish momentum. Earnings were okay, but not great. An FDA approval to add
to the mix of meds and lower their price in the competition may send RHYTHM into
launch mode. RYTM did 10% today such is the life of highly volatile penny stocks in what is
considered to be the likely hottest sector of the year. I will look toward OTM call options
for February 16th presently priced at about $200 per contract and a couple of shares shorted
to provide some hedging. Looking for 100% in 2-3 weeks. Will close 1/2 the position a few days
before upcoming earnings.
MGNX a biotech company gets new "Outperform" LONGMGNX as a biotech company makes antibodies against certain cancers. The antibody is tagged to
chemotherapy molecules and then heads off looking for cancer cells to which it has a strong
affinity. So much for the science. MGNX just got upgraded and the new target is $ 16.00 about
25% upside. Biotech and healthcare are projected hot sectors this year.
On the 15 minute chart price jumped about 12% in the past week and bounced down toward
the anchored mean VWAP and is well situated for a long entry. the dual TF RSI indicator
shows both lines crossing the 50 level in early bullish momentum off the bounce.
It is continually hitting new past year highs at a great trend angle and is on pace to hit 400% for
an annual return. There is no option play here as the volume is minimal and liquidity is absent.
The all-time high is about $32 so there is plenty of room above the analyst's target over the long
term. Price has moved 12X the S & P YTD certainly a sign of relative strength.
HRTX a biotech penny stock with 70% in two months LONGHRTX has been suggested by various trading websites as a potentially explosive penny biotech
stock for 2024. It has experienced excellent price actions since an earnings beat in November.
It beat the estimates; that is to say it burned about half as much cash as the analysts estimated
the it would. Today it pumped 11%. Relevant articles can be found compiled on the Yahoo
Finance page linked here.
The chart is 120 minutes. A alpha trend indicator is shown and the supertrend since the
November earnings is upward. An AI Lorentzian indicator is added with a 2000 candle lookback
to generate buy and sell signals. It calculated a 59% win on 83 trades over those 2000 candles
two hours each; this amounts to about 2000 x 2 / 6 hrs per session or more than 600 trading
days = 2 1/2 years.
Also supporting an entry at this time is the faster (45 min) RSI line rising over the 50 level
while the slower ( 240 minutes in red) RSI line has been over the 50 level since those earnings.
The ADX indicator had a DI- and DI + flip with a mini pullback to close out last week's trading
( profit taking).
The volatility indicator also showed that dip with selling volatility greater than buying which
has now flipped.
Given that price has went 5X in 2 months , there is a possibility HRTX is overbought.
Analysts seem to think otherwise.
I will take a stock position here and anticipate holding the position into the next earnings.
For trade management I will take partials of 5 % each at the high of day for ten days going
into earnings and hold the remaining 50% through the earnings. In the meanwhile I will review
the trade if the machine-learning alo indicator generates either a buy or sell signal.
For those lacking the risk tolerance for money-losing biotechnology penny stocks with high
potential but are aware that biotechnology is expected to be "outperforming" in 2024,
XBI and LABU are ETFs with risk-mitigation in the form of a diverse portfolio from the sector.