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XBI

Opening: XBI Jan '25 77 Covered CallComments: This started out as an October 20th 76 short put (See Post Below) and then proceeded to crater quite massively, resulting in early, random assignment of shares. In an attempt to get my cost basis immediately within earshot of where the underlying is currently trading, I went extremely long-dated and sold the Jan '25 77 for 7.05 against my one lot, resulting in a cost basis of my original short put strike at 76 minus the 7.05 I received for the short call or 68.95 relative to today's closing price of 67.07. The Jan '25 77 short call finished the day at around 43 delta, and -- as with all my covered calls, I'll look to roll out the short call at intervals, with an eye toward keeping the short call at or above the 30 delta and/or leaving it alone if price pops back above my break even. Unfortunately, the position becomes somewhat "dead money" for a bit since the current next available expiries to roll to are limited to June '25, Dec '25, and Jan '26 (although I can certainly roll down intraexpiry if push comes to shove).
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
A clear risk on event is taking placeI multiplied the less risky Dow and Spy while dividing it with a multiple of bio, the Russel and Ark. This shows a clear shooting star candle in development this month which should signal much greater future gains in higher risk stocks and an end to this pullback in the market. You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on this chart at March 2020 and Feb 2016. I also noticed some more supporting evidence that this is near the bottom from the dark orange wedge breakout. If you measure the bottom to the peak in 2015-16 you can get an ideal exit target for the wedge breakout. Typically, you would measure from the breakout point, which it hasn't reached at this time, but if you measure from the bottom, you can see that the target has interestingly been reached to an almost exact amount. We also have the yellow resistance and the peak at March 2020 as a pivot point for all of these lines. Not too critical of a point, I just found that interesting haha. We also have institutions like black rock capitulating on growth twitter.com Many institutions were bearish on the market at the bottom of the covid dip. Finally we have a heavily overbought RSI and stoch on the monthly that also signals a top. Now the short term future outlook looks bullish on risk to me but I was thinking on potential long term possibilities from there: I believe that the yellow trajectory is more likely to happen over the blue one at this point to be honest. The blue option just requires too much competence in all global leaders to pull off so it seems unlikely to me and would be frankly miraculous. But it could still happen. The yellow one would basically give investors an opportunity to exit growth at more reasonable prices before the market continues its tank fest again. And while I have this pivot point at Jan 2024, it could happen much steeper and faster and pivot later this year. The yellow support line and the blue breakout line are most important to watch and see what option it'll be.
AMEX:SPY
by Lynxys
3
Opening (IRA): XBI October 20th 76 Short PutComments: Looking to sell the around the 30 delta here in the October monthly, which is more aggressive than I usually go, but am fine with taking assignment, selling call against if it comes to that. Currently, the strike is bid 1.45/ask 1.65 with a 1.55 mid, so will look to get a fill "in that neighborhood." Just looking for some "engagement" in this broad market, low IV environment with my standard go-to's (IWM, QQQ, SPY) at 17.8%, 18.8%, and (ugh) 13.6%, respectively for their 30-days.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
XBI - Starting the year strong with a minor breakoutBiotech stocks have been my focus as many are showing significant relative strength and posting new 52 week highs. I got long XBI yesterday on the break of $85. Something to consider - stocks well below their all-time highs have a lot of supply to contend with, so the probability of a smooth trend out of a base tends to be lower and raises the probability of failure. The larger degree consolidation could look like this if the selling isn't absorbed by enough buyers at resistance:
AMEX:XBILong
by Lanmar