Is XLF on a downtrend?I believe that XLF has potential to touch $32.34 if it breaks $34 and may even retrace back to $30.20. Have patience and wait for it to break 20dma. Huge potential for profits from puts. It may happen in next week or two. Not a financial advice and as always please do your own DD.
XBI
IMGN - ImmunoGen, Inc.Setup - simple base breakout after a solid 70% move off the lows followed by 5 weeks of consolidation. Earnings during consolidation were below expectation. However, after a slight selloff, shares were gobbled back up and volatility was squeezed out right below the breakout level. Half size because the broad market is running a bit hot and could be due for a pullback relatively soon.
Biotech: textbook bullish continuation pattern breakoutBiotech was one of the first sectors in the market to show relative strength and catch some bids throughout the June bottoming process.
IBB rallied 20% off the lows and then proceeded to consolidate sideways for 3 weeks. This Wednesday, IBB broke out of that consolidation with a gap up on heavy volume and is now finding more follow-through.
Keep an eye on the old Feb/Apr highs around 135 which seems like the next target in this uptrend.
$XBI - How to trade when dealing with overhead supply. I first typed this up yesterday and accidently published it as a private idea. Here's the second attempt:
I rarely trade tickers with overhead resistance. The idea is to buy when the trend is clearly up and there's no overhead supply to dampen upward prices. Buy high and sell higher as it were. However, during selloffs, bear markets, etc, there is going to be great opportunities to buy stocks coming off their lows and reversing their down trends. One such ticker is $XBI. This chart is the monthly candle chart. On first glance we see a chart that rallied for quite some time and then sold off hard from peak to trough. However, there's some strong indicators here that this is a lasting bottom with a strong upside possibility. The May and June monthly candles not only tagged the long established support area but represented the most selling volume ever for the ETF in May (potentially clearing out a large amount of bag holders) which was followed up by the most buying volume ever for the ETF in June (Potentially the "smart" money getting involved). This formed a tweezers look with the two monthly candles. Moreover, while support held during these two volatile months, RSI signified that the ETF was the most oversold it had ever been in it its history. Confirming the RSI was the fact that both the May and June candles were outside the lower Bollinger band signifying the ETF was incredibly cheap.
Monthly Bollinger Bands:
The weekly chart confirmed what the monthly chart was showing. $XBI traded down from January through May all the while RSI was bottoming. The May 9th weekly candle and the June 13th weekly candle wicks both put in bottoms confirming the monthly chart. The ETF then cleared the first level of resistance on strong volume at the $72.58 area signifying a possible change in trend. One caveat, a possible weak spot is the weekly RSI has still not broken out to the positive range yet. However, it is pointing up. The weekly candle is now above the median of the Bollinger band . IMO the weekly chart is bullish.
Weekly Chart:
Weekly Bollinger Bands:
The daily chart looks absolutely fantastic IMO. There is a double bottom look with coinciding positive divergence on the RSI from May to June. The first level of resistance was sliced through on June 23rd and retested with buying volume on the 29th and the 30th confirming former resistance as new support. The ticker has just recently broken through second level resistance at the $81.71 area all the while RSI has been expanding in to a bullish regime and taking out its previous high from November of 21'. The 20day/50day MA's just crossed and are starting to curl upwards. After a brief squeeze look on the Bollinger bands the ticker tested the lower band and then broke above the median line and is now walking up the upper band. Relative strength looks like it is in the early stages of overall out performance as well. We can see this on the daily relative line chart of $XBI vs $SPY. Lots of bullish signals.
Daily Relative Strength Chart $XBI vs $SPY:
Daily Chart with Support & Resistance Levels:
On this daily chart I labeled the areas of possible support & resistance as levels. These are the areas I use for entry & exits. When trading stocks from below overhead supply it is reasonable to expect selling pressure as the stock moves into these levels. Patience is key. I take partial positions on penetrations of the resistance areas and then fill out the position upon retests confirming former resistance as support. Occasionally on strong up-moves you will not get a retest. In this instance I will fill my position upon the next penetration of an area of resistance or the next sell off. Whichever is first - it is not perfect but I am not looking for perfect. I am looking to develop a strong cost basis while building a long term position.
Daily Chart with Moving Averages:
Daily Bollinger Bands:
Obviously I have a bullish bias as I am long this ETF . How do I keep my bias in check? I respect the support/resistance levels. There's lots of overhead supply to contend with. I expect plenty of selling within the ranges of the support/resistance levels. A patient trader can scale in as these levels are taken out and set stop orders if the fail.
Any thoughts, feelings, and ideas are welcomed. Thanks for sharing. Good luck to all.
Rolling: XBI July 15th 65C/75P to August 70/86... for a 9.88 debit.
Comments: As with my IWM trade, paying a debit to uninvert this setup, free up buying power, and turn it into a higher POP (Probability of Profit) setup. I had collected a total of 11.65 in credits up to this point, so I'm still net credit by 1.77 after doing this, but with a smaller buying power footprint and with "delta/theta happy" metrics at -2.66/8.70. Like the IWM trade, however, it's under water: it's currently marking at 5.42. I had a brief opportunity to take it off for a .70 loss, but it decided to move too much ... .
$XBI update #thestratI love being able to trade this level by level during crazy markets. Almost had a double outside day today. Now a 3-2 on the day and 4 hour. Will we expand this bf, get stuck in this range, or drop? We DID close above the weekly trigger but tomorrow may decide if it can keep the momentum for the weekly upside target. This can be played either way. If it reverses, the 3-2-2d on the 4hr would be ideal to move into the sss50% trigger. 3-2-2u break is the same on the 4hr or day.
The biotechs show signs of life!The $XBI managed to close the week at the highs despite the overall weakness displayed by most sectors on Friday. The relative strength of this sector compared to the others on a down day makes us more bullish moving forward. In case the overall market does not fall apart and continues to rebuild in the following period, we expect the $XBI to outperform given the fact that it has been one of the most oversold sectors in the past 9 months.
XBI outlook on future medicine We see it in our favorite sci fi movies: the cure for cancer, biotech armor, mind altering substances to enhance intelligence, so on so forth. Assuming this index is the representation of biotech importance, I'd like to hear ideas for how biotech would crash. Everything we've seen from the movies can be reasons for an increase in price.. but what would cause the destruction of biotech funding? Is it even possible? If we want to achieve space exploration.. how could biotech ever fail? Thanks.
Rolling: XBI June 17th 79 Call to 71... for a 1.72 credit.
Comments: Inverting here. Total credits collected of 7.33 on a 5-wide inversion (71C/76P). The best outcome for this would be a finish between 71 and 76, but the most I can hope to make on it would be the total credits collected of 7.33 minus the width of the inversion (5.00) or 2.33.
$XBI - Positive DivergenceThe SPDR BioTech ETF $XBI has been an underperforming for a long time. However, there's clues that could be changing. There's a nice positive divergence on the RSI. The down trend line was broken after several failed attempts. The stock is above the 50 day MA for the first time in over a year. Both the 20 SMA and the 50 SMA are curling upwards. RSI is positive. I like this long above the possible resistance area of $96.91.
The tripled levered bull equivalent $LABU looks just as good with even better volume.
I like the ETF long above $96.91. With a target up to the 200 SMA. of about $114.00
Under $96.91 and it's probably best to stay away.
Thanks for checking this out. Good luck to all.
Rolling: XBI May 20th 75/105 Short Strangle to June 76/110... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: A different way to do a delta adjustment when your setup is in profit ... . Locking in the realized gain of the May 20th setup while returning the position back to net delta neutral and improving break evens. Total credits collected of 2.35 (See Post Below) plus the 1.09 here, for a total of 3.44 relative to a current value for the June 17th 76/110 of 2.72, so I've realized gains of about .72 ($72) so far.
IVR/IV is still pretty decent in here at 53/42.6%.
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Inc. BPC Chart Overview 03/28/22Intellia Therapeutics Inc. NASDAQ: NTLA
Chart Overview 03/28/22
Intellia is trading in a 9-month downward channel pullback, closing the gap created by the release of Phase 1 data of NTLA-2001 to treat ATTR. The release caused a bull pennant that led to a reversal into a downward channel. We are tracking support at $56 and a resistance line is at $90. The downward channel pullback may be forming a descending wedge, which could lead to a bullish breakout.
Tracking RSI and MACD, the lowest lows on both charts are displaying a slight increase, running opposite to price, which lowest lows are continuing to decrease. The bullish divergence also indicates a possible breakout if met with an increase in volume. Good news could mean that the recent bottom is in, possible clinical holds, or other issues could test 2021 lows around $44. We will be looking for a breakout over $90 into a new bullish pattern.
Intellia will be commencing Part 2 of its NTLA-2001 and is set to read out from its Phase 1/2 NTLA-2002 hereditary angioedema (HAE) trial this year. A recent loss in a CRISPR patent ruling increases uncertainty in the stock. Catalysts can have a profound effect on stock price and incorporating BioPharmCatalyst into your due diligence can ensure that you are prepared.
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