XBI Potential What is XBi?
XBI provides exposure to one of the broadest portfolios among US biotech ETFs. The fund equal-weights its portfolio, which in turn emphasizes small- and micro-caps and greatly reduces single-name risk. Thus, the weighted-average market cap is much smaller than some competitors. Unlike other funds in this segment, XBI is a pure biotech play, with relatively small pharma overlap as we see it. This highly efficient fund, which charges less than competing funds, has a history of beating its index due to revenue from securities lending. It has attracted a large asset base and trades with excellent volume. The fund’s alternative take on the space earns it a place on our Opportunities List.
Looking like we could see a pull back here or breakout.
Risk and reward is in our favor here. if it rejects, it can go to $95 area, if it breaks out, we can just stoploss for $1.
XBI
Pharma ETF - bull divergence!As the PPH dropped 15% below the 200sma, OBV barely moved lower compared to the drop. (Between purple vertical lines). This is considered a Bullish Divergence .
Now with a strong pullback, we are half way to reach past highs; but this time with an OBV we have not yet seen since Feb, 2018.
Ready to buy the dip!
OPENING: XBI MARCH 20TH 80/105 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.75 credit; delta .60/theta 3.57.
Notes: Selling the 15's with the intent to add to delta balance if necessary. Since this is shorter duration than some of my other broad market or exchange-traded fund stuff, I may go for the full 50% max, but will see how it goes. I would note that this is generally less liquid than I like to see (.20 wide markets).
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY EARNINGS; XBI, GDX, IWMEARNINGS:
BBBY (62/79) announces earnings on Wednesday after market close. Because of its size, I would go short straddle if of a nondirectional bent: the February 21st 16 is paying 3.18 at the mid (.80 at 25% max).
Pictured here, however, is a bullish assumption "Wheel of Fortune" at the money short put in the February cycle paying 1.55 (.78 at 50% max). Max is realized on a finish above the short put strike, with profitability being realized on anything above 14.45. From a trade management standpoint, I generally leave these alone until a test of the break even, at which point I sell delta cutting call against in anticipation of being assigned and then work it as a covered call from that point forward.
An alternative play: the February 21st 15 monied covered call, 13.92 debit (which is your cost basis in the shares and your break even). The max profit on this is less generous, coming in at the difference between what you paid to put the play on (13.92) and the short call strike at 15 or 1.08 max, but has a higher probability of profit metric.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS (SHOWING FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE UNDERLYING SHARE PRICE):
GLD (46/13), January '21
SLV (40/21), July
XBI (40/27), March
GDX (39/26), March
TLT (38/12), January '22
GDXJ (38/32), May
I would personally lean toward the funds paying in shortest duration, which would be either GDX or XBI, with the GDX March 20th 27/32 short strangle paying 1.18, .59 at 50% max, delta/theta -2.63/theta 1.58, and the XBI March 20th 82/105 short strangle paying 2.12, 1.06 at 50% max, delta/theta .65/3.82.
BROAD MARKET (SHOWING FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE UNDERLYING SHARE PRICE):
EEM (37/18), September
QQQ (20/17), September
IWM (15/16), August
SPY (3/13), September
Short duration obviously isn't paying and even August is a long time to wait for your candy (e.g., in IWM), where the IWM 145/183 short strangle is paying 4.77, delta/theta .58/2.60, where 10% max (.48) or 25% max (1.20) might be sufficiently compelling to put on a trade.
FUTURES:
/GC (46/13)
/SI (40/20)
/6C (38/6)
/NG (27/43)
/6A (32/8)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 14.02 and term structure trades remain viable in the February, March, and April expiries, where the /VX futures contracts finished trading at 16.70, 16.87, and 17.32, respectively. For all other derivatives, I would continue to wait until VIX print >20 to go short (call me picky).
XBI testing Resistance this upcoming week!TICKER: $XBI
XBI will be testing daily resistance $97.00. The nasdaq biotech $IBB already broke its daily resistance so can XBI follow along?
Again, dividend distribution was this week and it has an impact on the price.
However, I would still be caution because the weeky RSI is pretty extended. RSI is @ 71ish and historic pullback RSI level is around 72.
Weekly time frame is extremely extended and a break of the higher low every weekly candlestick pattern will be the first indication of consolidation.
I am very interested in looking for a swing trade of LABD because of how extended the bulls are.
XBI potential pull back next weekTicker: $XBI
The biotech sector have been on absolute fire these couple of weeks. Check out the weekly chart with higher lows every candlestick.
The daily chart is getting toppy with somewhat of a double top at $96.61.
Break $94.08 this upcoming week and that will signal weekly consolidation. I will be scouting for a bearish play with LABD this upcoming week.
Weekly RSI also approach oversold so that means be cautious bulls.
Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutEYPT chart is building up for another run. Potential catalyst before year end with an sNDA for Short Duration Yutiq. accumulation has been slow and steady indicating EYPT oversold conditions.
Technical's:
weekly chart --> Harmonic Gartley (bounced off significant support level) and been in uptrend since.
Symmetrical Triangle/ Breakout setup has been known to act as a pre-courser to huge upside moves (40%+).
Bull flag building in the symmetrical triangle. . . Read the rest then check out the rest of our trade ideas HERE
Disclosure: I am long EYPT. I am not a financial advisor and this is not a buy/ sell recommendation but for education purposes only. Please do your homework before investing.
#VolatilityWatch Solid BioscencesBiotech buyouts have been very strong, especially with Gene therapy stocks as of late.
Bounced off Lower end of channel
Gartley pattern
bounced off 1.618 fib extension along with important reversal leg of Elliott Wave Theory.
if price holds inside the lower end of the channel there is a potential move back up and test the gap.
looking for nice $0.40+ swing from current level.
Disclosure: I am long SLDB. I may buy/ sell within the next 72 hours. I am not a financial adviser. Please do your homework before investing.
XBI could potentially break out hardTicker: $XBI
XBI needs to break 94.95 to break out hard. If we reject and form a 4 hour lower high compared to 94.95, WATCH OUT FOR THE 4H INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS with support for 92.97 and 91.68!!!
Also watch for market correlation. If market is strong and hits ALL TIME HIGH, XBI could be in a great position to go long.
Technicals versus PolicitiansWIth Warren and Bernie fading a bit, Bio/health have jumped nicely. Too much too soon IMO, at the minimum a short term pull back is coming. I am hoping we can become more range bound in the technicals and return to cyclical trading between 78 and 87, this type of cycle is great IBB and XBI, however getting caught when it breaks down can hurt! I use XBI has my measure, but trade LABU and LABD.
**Short XBI via LABD
Build Positions in BiotechAs the month of October begins and broader markets sold off, Biotech sectors are still negative/ flat for the year. Market headlines from high prescription drug prices and lawsuits regarding the opioid epidemic have plagued some of the IBB's largest holdings; which have held biotech ETF's down while the S&P reached all time highs.
Fast-Track Synopsis:
Biotech is a known high volatility trading environment;
More Investors will become "Traders" with new $0 trading fee platforms from Schwab and TD Ameritrade.
Once people begin trading stocks, they will find that high volatility is how the "big" day-trade/ swing trading money is made.
New Med-tech and Biotechnology therapies (i.e. gene therapies, NASH/ NAFLD) are ripening and getting closer to approval.
There are currently over 240 biotechnology companies with Gene therapy IP
IP has been growing with RMAT and Breakthrough Designations due to unmet need of new novel treatments;
As Biotech rolls into year-end, lower interest rates will propel company growth models which I believe will help drive buy outs.
LABU Technical Analysis:
Bullish Harmonic Gartley pattern and close to 52-week low.
1-year Gartley pattern should move LABU stock price back up to around $40 level (resistance) where we will be watching for a potential breakout
CCI measured "oversold" with the end of September pullback, CCI-slope is now trending higher,
This last pullback also measures a double bottom (data points are from Christmas 2018 and present)
Intra-day bullish RSI divergence, Daily RSI trending higher;
the MS Signal recently flipped green as of 10/1/2019 and is still indicating a nice swing opportunity to come.
Three-drives pattern bouncing toward resistance concurrent with double bottom and Gartley pattern.
Look for the support level (marked (x)) to hold.
See conclusion here !
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Disclosure: I do not own LABU, I may buy or sell within the next 48 hours. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your homework before investing.