Bullish GartleyAbout CFMS
Conformis, Inc. (NASDAQ: CFMS), is a medical device/ technology company that uses its proprietary iFit 'Image-to-Implant' technology platform to develop, manufacture and sell patient specific joint replacement implants that are designed to fit each patient's unique anatomy.
Technicals
Bullish Gartley pattern (786 retracement)
Fibonacci confluence at the 1.272 extension
382 continuation pattern (Keeps bouncing off and making higher lows-- if it continues it could be used to further add)
In-line with Fibonacci time-cycles
RSI pushing higher on Daily and Weekly
Potential gap up to fill up to the $2.75 level.
Conclusion :
CFMS has sufficient funds, great management and recently received some 510 certifications while broader markets were selling off. Looking to re-claim those prior gains. Will revisit the trade at or around time of the gap filling.
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Disclosure: I am long CFMS. This is not a note to buy or sell, please do your homework before investing.
XBI
Bearish Butterfly SGEN has beat biotech averages significantly the past few months and has come to meet my $80 pt which also happens to make a bearish harmonic butterfly pattern. This could have a little more upside as it tests $80-81 but risk/reward would suggest a potential double top that can take this down quite a bit in a short amount of time. If I was short I would be looking to start a position.
According to the bearish setup SGEN should find 50 -618 retracement before next ER bringing SGEN down to around the $69 mark. As I have outlined in this setup, SGEN is still making higher lows on long-term chart and after retracing back to $69, should see continue uptrend to ~$84 (assuming another positive ER or catalyst).
Tip - Even if you rely mostly on company fundamentals, you should be aware of support/ resistance levels.
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Disclosure: I do not own a position in SGEN. I may buy/sell within the next 72 hours. This is not a note to buy or sell, please do your homework before investing.
Sangamo's: Doom or Gloom ScenarioRecent data release may have changed SGMO's future outlook. Sangamo's long-term chart suggests a potential pullback to $4 is a possibility, but that was before a recent data release by the company for updated Phase 1/2 Results for SB-525 . This is an investigational Hemophilia-A gene therapy that showed sustained increased Factor VIII Levels with no reported bleeding events and no factor usage for as long as 24 weeks of follow-up.
Some traders do not believe in technical analysis, that's fine, but I think you may want to re-consider and hear me out on this one. Most didn't believe in Sangamo either (aren't I right Sangamo fan's)!!
What Does The Chart Say?
The long-term pattern (from day of IPO) suggests that if Sangamo Therapeutics stock price continued its trend, it was a possibility that pattern would repeat therefore potentially pulling back to December 2016 lows of around $3.67. Although this may still be a possibility, Sangamo caught wind in its sails on good data release recently, re-igniting investor optimism. I remain cautiously optimistic with Sangamo, so I went ahead and put together a short-term game plan just in case. Take a look at short list of what I will be watching for while I wait for further confirmation of long-term trend indication.
When making previous highs, Sangamo's stock price has entailed devastating 5-wave corrections, however:
The daily chart suggests that instead of a 5-wave correction that could potentially take SGMO to sub $4, SGMO's chart details an AB=BC corrective wave that could potentially mark the low of the long-term selloff.
AB=BC corrective waves are equal in length/or magnitude and on a Bullish correction would bounce off the 0.786 retracement level.
SGMO had a sharp bounce off this level in Feb 2019 and closed the day right above the 0.786 retracement zone. This is a very important level of support to close upon.
If this did not happen I would be on the other side of the trade waiting for a wash, down to $4. But from my experience there still may be fighting chance.
Short-term (from Feb 2019 to now) SGMO continues to make higher lows, this is #Bullish.
Although SGMO looks to have failed to break current resistance in the chart above,volume/optimism packed enough punch to test $11.85 which is a 1.618 Fibonacci extension (normal extensions range from 1.272 or 1.414).. . #Bullish
May not be exactly what a Long-term investor's of SGMO would want to hear, but a pullback around .618-.786 retracement (shown in green-zone on chart) would be a nice place to add for swing-trade up to earnings.
Previous earnings have brought 10-20% run-ups, but be careful to not get trapped in an earnings selloff.
If SGMO continues to make higher-lows, this could be a potential range to be looking for a swing position.
Breakout of this zone could mean big $$
Fall below blue trend line could mean devastation
my stop-loss will be set below blue trend-line.
Again, it's a long way down to $4 if trend continues to follow its Long-term pattern. Previous trends have issued 5-wave correction, peak to trough, the current pattern details an AB=BC harmonic pattern (outlined in #RED) please press play and zoom out to see what I am referring to.
Tip # 5 : A trend line in mathmatical terms means the line of best fit. When using them, make sure they touch as many points as possible on the chart.
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Disclosure: I do not own SGMO. I may buy/sell within the next 72 hours. This is not a note to buy or sell. Please do your homework before investing.
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Check out my some of my current trades.
OPENING: XBI JUNE 21ST 75/78/92/95 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.04/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $104/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $196/contract
Break Evens: 76.96/93.04
Delta/Theta: -2.95/1.41
Notes: Back into biotech, collecting one-third the width of the wings. Will look to manage the trade at side approaching worthless (i.e., rolling toward the tested side) with a profit target of 50% max.
THE WEEK AHEAD: INDA, GDXJ, XBI, XOP; X, AMD EARNINGSPictured here is an INDA (66/29) short strangle in the June cycle set up around the 25 delta strikes. Paying 1.00 at the mid, it has break evens of 32.00/39.00, a buying power effect of 5.65, and delta/theta metrics of .68/1.98. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the tightest markets, so expect a little price discovery should you want to get a fill.
On the remainder of the exchange-traded fund front, GDXJ (54/30), XBI (25/28), and XOP (25/32) round out the top symbols ordered by rank; XOP (25/32), OIH (27/31), GDXJ (54/30), and EWZ (14/30) are the top symbols ranked by 30-day implied.
Because I don't have any gold on at the moment, I'm leaning toward putting something on in GDXJ: the June 21st 28/33 short strangle is paying .97 at the mid with 27.03/33.97 break evens, a 3.90 buying power effect, and delta/theta figures of .13/1.92.
And while we're well into earnings, nothing stunning pops to the forefront with ideal volatility contraction metrics, AMD and X appear to be the most amenable to that type of play with >50% 30-day. AMD (48/67) announces on Tuesday after market close, and the down-trodden X (54/56) announces on Thursday after market close. Both are also small enough to either short straddle or go 30 delta short strangle.
OPENING: XBI MAY 17TH 80/85/98/103 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.67/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.67 ($167)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 3.33 ($333)
Break Evens: 83.33/99.67
Delta: -2.03
Theta: 2.02
Notes: Some nondirectional premium selling here in an exchange-traded fund with high implied (24.8%) relative to the broad market; going 25 delta with the shorts, five-wide with the longs and collecting one-third the width of the wings. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
Rising wedge and double top @ 93, MACD & RSI DivergenceSlow down in China and Europe, Recession in Germany, Trade tension between US/China, Fed capitulation, Bear market rally exceeding 40% from lows, etc., etc., etc... all seem to point towards another leg down, possibly beyond previous lows. Over excitement by the bulls after yesterday's rally adds to my conviction that we may be heading lower, and possibly much lower from here.